Large reductions in nutrient losses needed to avoid future coastal eutrophication across Europe

Rapid technological development in agriculture and fast urbanization have increased nutrient losses in Europe. High nutrient export to seas causes coastal eutrophication and harmful algal blooms. This study aims to assess the river exports of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), and identify required reductions to avoid coastal eutrophication in Europe under global change. We modelled nutrient export by 594 rivers in 2050 for a baseline scenario using the new MARINA-Nutrients model for Europe. Nutrient export to European seas is expected to increase by 13-28% under global change. Manure and fertilizers together contribute to river export of N by 35% in 2050. Sewage systems are responsible for 70% of future P export by rivers. By 2050, the top ten polluted rivers for N and P host 42% of the European population. Avoiding future coastal eutrophication requires over 47% less N and up to 77% less P exports by these polluted rivers.

How nutrient retention and TN:TP ratios depend on ecosystem state in thousands of Chinese lakes

Worldwide, anthropogenic activities threaten surface water quality by aggravating eutrophication and increasing total nitrogen to total phosphorus (TN:TP) ratios. In hydrologically connected systems, water quality management may benefit from in-ecosystem nutrient retention by preventing nutrient transport to downstream systems. However, nutrient retention may also alter TN:TP ratios with unforeseen consequences for downstream water quality. Here, we aim to increase understanding of how nutrient retention may influence nutrient transport to downstream systems to improve long-term water quality management. We analyzed lake ecosystem state, in-lake nutrient retention, and nutrient transport (ratios) for 3482 Chinese lakes using the lake process-based ecosystem model PCLake+. We compared a low climate change and sustainability-, and a high climate change and economy-focused scenario for 2050 against 2012. In both scenarios, the effect of nutrient input reduction outweighs that of temperature rise, resulting in more lakes with good ecological water quality (i.e., macrophyte-dominated) than in 2012. Generally, the sustainability-focused scenario shows a more promising future for water quality than the economy-focused scenario. Nevertheless, most lakes remain phytoplankton-dominated. The shift to more macrophyte-dominated lakes in 2050 is accompanied by higher nutrient retention fractions and less nutrient transport to downstream waterbodies. In-lake nutrient retention also alters the water's TN:TP ratio, depending on the inflow TN:TP ratio and the ecosystem state. In 2050 higher TN:TP ratios are expected in the outflows of lakes than in 2012, especially for the sustainability-focused scenario with strong TP loading reduction. However, the downstream impact of increased TN:TP ratios depends on actual nutrient loadings and the limiting nutrient in the receiving system. We conclude that nutrient input reductions, improved water quality, higher in-lake nutrient retention fractions, and lower nutrient transport to downstream waterbodies go hand in hand. Therefore, water quality management could benefit even more from nutrient pollution reduction than one would expect at first sight.

Setting goals for agricultural nitrogen emission reduction to ensure safe air and groundwater quality: A case study of Quzhou, the North China Plain

Setting nitrogen (N) emission targets for agricultural systems is crucial to prevent to air and groundwater pollution, yet such targets are rarely defined at the county level. In this study, we employed a forecasting-and-back casting approach to establish human health-based nitrogen targets for air and groundwater quality in Quzhou county, located in the North China Plain. By adopting the World Health Organization (WHO) phase I standard for PM2.5 concentration (35 μg m-3) and a standard of 11.3 mg NO3--N L-1 for nitrate in drinking water, we found that ammonia (NH3) emissions from the entire county must be reduced by at least 3.2 kilotons year-1 in 2050 to meet the WHO's PM2.5 phase I standard. Additionally, controlling other pollutants such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) is necessary, with required reductions ranging from 16% to 64% during 2017-2050. Furthermore, to meet the groundwater quality standard, nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N) leaching to groundwater should not exceed 0.8 kilotons year-1 by 2050. Achieving this target would require a 50% reduction in NH3 emissions and a 21% reduction in NO3--N leaching from agriculture in Quzhou in 2050 compared to their respective levels in 2017 (5.0 and 2.1 kilotons, respectively). Our developed method and the resulting N emission targets can support the development of environmentally-friendly agriculture by facilitating the design of control strategies to minimize agricultural N losses.

Causes of coastal waters pollution with nutrients, chemicals and plastics worldwide

Worldwide, coastal waters contain pollutants such as nutrients, plastics, and chemicals. Rivers export those pollutants, but their sources are not well studied. Our study aims to quantify river exports of nutrients, chemicals, and plastics to coastal waters by source and sub-basin worldwide. We developed a new MARINA-Multi model for 10,226 sub-basins. The global modelled river export to seas is approximately 40,000 kton of nitrogen, 1,800 kton of phosphorous, 45 kton of microplastics, 490 kton of macroplastics, 400 ton of triclosan and 220 ton of diclofenac. Around three-quarters of these pollutants are transported to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Diffuse sources contribute by 95-100 % to nitrogen (agriculture) and macroplastics (mismanaged waste) in seas. Point sources (sewage) contribute by 40-95 % to phosphorus and microplastics in seas. Almost 45 % of global sub-basin areas are multi-pollutant hotspots hosting 89 % of the global population. Our findings could support strategies for reducing multiple pollutants in seas.

Sources of nitrogen in reservoirs of the Haihe basin (China) 2012-2017

Nitrogen (N) is essential for agricultural production. However, too much N can pollute waters. The Chinese government published several policies to reduce N losses from agricultural production to waters since 2015, which may influence river export of N to reservoirs and lakes and their pollution sources. This study aimed to quantify the trends of river export of N to five reservoirs in the Haihe basin and analyze the main sources of this N pollution from 2012 to 2017. This was done by upscaling the MARINA-Lakes (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to lAkes) model to the Haihe basin, including 22 sub-basins. From 2012 to 2017, river export of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) to the Haihe reservoirs decreased by 11-51%, associated with a decreased contribution of point sources and an increased contribution of diffuse sources for the whole study area Sub-basins draining into Reservoir Pan-Da contributed over one-third to the total TDN export by rivers in 2012 and 2017. The share of diffuse sources in river export of TDN to the Guanting reservoir reached 63% in 2017. Among the TDN diffuse sources, the contribution of animal manure (a diffuse source) to river export of diffuse TDN increased to 28%, 25%, and 23% for the sub-basins of Reservoir Miyun, Pan-da, and Guanting from 2012 to 2017, respectively. Among the TDN point sources, direct manure discharges were the main contributors to the river export of point TDN to the Haihe reservoirs in 2012. By 2017, direct discharges of untreated human waste became another important point source, especially for the Lake Baiyangdian and Reservoir Gang-Huang. This study concludes the need for specific agricultural N management options for different reservoirs of the Haihe basin.

The Plastic Age: River Pollution in China from Crop Production and Urbanization

Many rivers are polluted with macro (>5 mm)- and microplastics (<5 mm). We assess plastic pollution in rivers from crop production and urbanization in 395 Chinese sub-basins. We develop and evaluate an integrated model (MARINA-Plastics model, China-1.0) that considers plastics in crop production (plastic films from mulching and greenhouses, diffuse sources), sewage systems (point sources), and mismanaged solid waste (diffuse source). Model results indicated that 716 kton of plastics entered Chinese rivers in 2015. Macroplastics in rivers account for 85% of the total amount of plastics (in mass). Around 71% of this total plastic is from about one-fifth of the basin area. These sub-basins are located in central and eastern China, and they are densely populated with intensive agricultural activities. Agricultural plastic films contribute 20% to plastics in Chinese rivers. Moreover, 65% of plastics are from mismanaged waste in urban and rural areas. Sewage is responsible for the majority of microplastics in rivers. Our study could support the design of plastic pollution control policies and thus contribute to green development in China and elsewhere.

River export of macro- and microplastics to seas by sources worldwide

Seas are polluted with macro- (>5 mm) and microplastics (<5 mm). However, few studies account for both types when modeling water quality, thus limiting our understanding of the origin (e.g., basins) and sources of plastics. In this work, we model riverine macro- and microplastic exports to seas to identify their main sources in over ten thousand basins. We estimate that rivers export approximately 0.5 million tons of plastics per year worldwide. Microplastics are dominant in almost 40% of the basins in Europe, North America and Oceania, because of sewage effluents. Approximately 80% of the global population live in river basins where macroplastics are dominant because of mismanaged solid waste. These basins include many African and Asian rivers. In 10% of the basins, macro- and microplastics in seas (as mass) are equally important because of high sewage effluents and mismanaged solid waste production. Our results could be useful to prioritize reduction policies for plastics.

The future of the Black Sea: More pollution in over half of the rivers

The population in the Black Sea region is expected to decline in the future. However, a better understanding of how river pollution is affected by declining trends in population and increasing trends in economic developments and urbanization is needed. This study aims to quantify future trends in point-source emissions of nutrients, microplastics, Cryptosporidium, and triclosan to 107 rivers draining into the Black Sea. We apply a multi-pollutant model for 2010, 2050, and 2100. In the future, over half of the rivers will be more polluted than in 2010. The population in 74 sub-basins may drop by over 25% in our economic scenario with poor wastewater treatment. Over two-thirds of the people will live in cities and the economy may grow 9-fold in the region. Advanced wastewater treatment could minimize trade-offs between economy and pollution: our Sustainability scenario projects a 68-98% decline in point-source pollution by 2100. Making this future reality will require coordinated international efforts.

Comparing critical source areas for the sediment and nutrients of calibrated and uncalibrated models in a plateau watershed in southwest China

Controlling non-point source pollution is often difficult and costly. Therefore, focusing on areas that contribute the most, so-called critical source areas (CSAs), can have economic and ecological benefits. CSAs are often determined using a modelling approach, yet it has proved difficult to calibrate the models in regions with limited data availability. Since identifying CSAs is based on the relative contributions of sub-basins to the total load, it has been suggested that uncalibrated models could be used to identify CSAs to overcome data scarcity issues. Here, we use the SWAT model to study the extent to which an uncalibrated model can be applied to determine CSAs. We classify and rank sub-basins to identify CSAs for sediment, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) in the Fengyu River Watershed (China) with and without model calibration. The results show high similarity (81%-93%) between the identified sediment and TP CSA number and locations before and after calibration both on the yearly and seasonal scale. For TN alone, the results show moderate similarity on the yearly scale (73%). This may be because, in our study area, TN is determined more by groundwater flow after calibration than by surface water flow. We conclude that CSA identification with the uncalibrated model for TP is always good because its CSA number and locations changed least, and for sediment, it is generally satisfactory. The use of the uncalibrated model for TN is acceptable, as its CSA locations did not change after calibration; however, the TN CSA number changed by over 60% compared to the figures before calibration on both yearly and seasonal scales. Therefore, we advise using an uncalibrated model to identify CSAs for TN only if water yield composition changes are expected to be limited. This study shows that CSAs can be identified based on relative loading estimates with uncalibrated models in data-deficient regions.

Nitrogen in the Yangtze River Basin: Pollution Reduction through Coupling Crop and Livestock Production

Livestock production poses a threat to water quality worldwide. A better understanding of the contribution of individual livestock species to nitrogen (N) pollution in rivers is essential to improve water quality. This paper aims to quantify inputs of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to the Yangtze River from different livestock species at multiple scales and explore ways for reducing these inputs through coupling crop and livestock production. We extended the previously developed model MARINA (Model to Assess River Input of Nutrient to seAs) with the NUFER (Nutrient flows in Food chains, Environment, and Resource use) approach for livestock. Results show that DIN inputs to the Yangtze River vary across basins, sub-basins, and 0.5° grids, as well as across livestock species. In 2012, livestock production resulted in 2000 Gg of DIN inputs to the Yangtze River. Pig production was responsible for 55-85% of manure-related DIN inputs. Rivers in the downstream sub-basin received higher manure-related DIN inputs than rivers in the other sub-basins. Around 20% of the Yangtze basin is considered as a manure-related hotspot of river pollution. Recycling manure on cropland can avoid direct discharges of manure from pig production and thus reduce river pollution. The potential for recycling manure is larger in cereal production than in other crop species. Our results can help to identify effective solutions for coupling crop and livestock production in the Yangtze basin.

Past and future pesticide losses to Chinese waters under socioeconomic development and climate change

Increasing pesticide use pollutes Chinese surface waters. Pesticides often enter waters through surface runoff from agricultural fields. This occurs especially during heavy rainfall events. Socio-economic development and climate change may accelerate future loss of pesticides to surface waters due to increasing food production and rainfall events. The main objective of this study is to model past and future pesticide losses to Chinese waters under socio-economic development and climate change. To this end, we developed a pesticide model with local information to quantify the potential pesticide runoff from near-stream agriculture to surface waters after heavy rainfall. We project future trends in potential pesticide runoff. For this, we developed three scenarios: Sustainability, "Middle of the Road" and Economy-first. These scenarios are based on combined Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. We identified hotspots with high potential pesticide runoff. The results show that the potential pesticide runoff increased by 45% from 2000 to 2010, nationally. Over 50% of the national pesticide runoff in 2000 was in five provinces. Over 60% of the Chinese population lived in pesticide polluted hotspots in 2000. For the future, trends differ among scenarios and years. The largest increase is projected for the Economy-first scenario, where the potential pesticide runoff is projected to increase by 85% between 2010 and 2099. Future pesticide pollution hotspots are projected to concentrate in the south and south-east of China. This is the net-effect of high pesticide application, intensive crop production and high precipitation due to climate change. In our scenarios, 58%-84% of the population is projected to live in pesticide polluted hotspots from 2050 onwards. These projections can support the development of regional management strategies to control pesticide pollution in waters in the future.

Nitrogen budgets for freshwater aquaculture and mariculture in a large tropical island - A case study for Hainan Island 1998-2018

Nitrogen is an essential nutrient in aquaculture. It is also an important factor in coastal and river eutrophication. We present an island-scale model to study the nitrogen flows in different aquaculture systems in Hainan Island during 1998-2018. The result indicated that nitrogen losses associated with pond sludge, wastewater discharge and gaseous emission increased by a factor of 1.4, 4.6 and 3.2, respectively. Sludge and wastewater account for 84% of the total losses to the environment. During the past 20 years, aquacultural yields and the nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) improved considerably in Hainan Island. Nevertheless, nitrogen losses to the environment increased significantly as well, with negative effects for local ecosystems. In the future, sustainable aquacultural practices are needed to improve NUE and to reduce nitrogen losses to the environment.

Nitrogen losses from food production in the North China Plain: A case study for Quzhou

Nitrogen (N) management is essential for food security. The North China Plain is an important food producing region, but also a hotspot of N losses to the environment. This results in water, soil, and air pollution. In this study, we aim to quantify the relative contribution of different crops and animals to N losses, by taking the Quzhou county as a typical example in the North China Plain. We developed and applied a new version of the NUtrient flows in Food chains, Environment, and Resource use (NUFER) model. Our model is based on updated information for N losses in Quzhou. Our results show that N losses to the environment from crop and animal production in Quzhou were approximately 9 kton in 2017. These high N losses can be explained by the low N use efficiency in food production because of poor N management. For crop production, wheat, maize, and vegetables contributed 80% to N losses. Ammonia emissions and N leaching have dominant shares in these N losses. Pigs and laying hens were responsible for 74% of N losses from animal production. Ammonia emissions to air and direct discharges of manure to water were the main contributors to these N losses. Effective reduction of N losses requires improving the nutrient management in crop (wheat, maize, vegetables) and animal (pigs, laying hens) production. Our work could support the Agricultural Green Development in the North China Plain.

What is the pollution limit? Comparing nutrient loads with thresholds to improve water quality in Lake Baiyangdian

Ecological thresholds are useful indicators for water quality managers to define limits to nutrient pollution. A common approach to estimating ecological thresholds is using critical nutrient loads. Critical nutrient loads are typically defined as the loads at which the phytoplankton chlorophyll-a exceeds a certain concentration. However, national policies, such as in China, use chemical indicators (nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations) rather than ecological indicators (phytoplankton chlorophyll-a) to assess water quality. In this study, we uniquely define the critical nutrient loads based on maximum allowable nutrient concentrations for lake Baiyangdian. We assess whether current and future nutrient loads in this lake comply with the Chinese Water Quality standards. To this end, we link two models (MARINA-Lakes and PCLake+). The PCLake+ model was applied to estimate the critical nutrient loads related to ecological thresholds for total nitrogen, total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a. The current (i.e., 2012) and future (i.e., 2050) nutrient loads were derived from the water quality MARINA-Lakes model. Nitrogen loads exceeded the nitrogen threshold in 2012. Phosphorus loads were below all ecological thresholds in 2012. Ecological thresholds are exceeded in 2050 with limited environmental policies, and urbanization may increase nutrient loads above the ecological thresholds in 2050. Recycling and reallocating animal manure is needed to avoid future water pollution in Lake Baiyangdian. Our study highlights the need for effective policies for clean water based on policy-relevant indicators.

Accounting for interactions between Sustainable Development Goals is essential for water pollution control in China

Meeting the United Nations’ (UN’s) 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has become a worldwide mission. How these SDGs interrelate, however, is not well known. We assess the interactions between SDGs for the case of water pollution by nutrients in China. The results show 319 interactions between SDGs for clean water (SDGs 6 and 14) and other SDGs, of which 286 are positive (synergies) and 33 are negative (tradeoffs) interactions. We analyze six scenarios in China accounting for the cobenefits of water pollution control using a large-scale water quality model. We consider scenarios that benefit from synergies and avoid tradeoffs. Our results show that effective pollution control requires accounting for the interactions between SDGs. For instance, combining improved nutrient management, efficient food consumption, and climate mitigation is effective for simultaneously meeting SDGs 6 and 14 as well as other SDGs for food, cities and climate. Our study serves as an example of assessing SDG interactions in environmental policies in China as well as in other regions of the world.

The UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are highly interrelated. This study finds 319 interactions between SDGs for the case of water pollution in China. Results show that effective pollution control requires accounting for these interactions.

Multi-pollutant assessment of river pollution from livestock production worldwide

Livestock production is often a source of multiple pollutants in rivers. However, current assessments of water pollution seldomly take a multi-pollutant perspective, while this is essential for improving water quality. This study quantifies inputs of multiple pollutants to rivers from livestock production worldwide, by animal types and spatially explicit. We focus on nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and Cryptosporidium (pathogen). We developed the MARINA-Global-L (Model to Assess River Inputs of pollutaNts to seAs for Livetsock) model for 10,226 sub-basins and eleven livestock species. Global inputs to land from livestock are around 94 Tg N, 19 Tg P, and 2.9 × 1021 oocysts from Cryptosporidium in 2010. Over 57% of these amounts are from grazed animals. Asia, South America, and Africa account for over 68% of these amounts on land. The inputs to rivers are around 22 Tg Total Dissolved Nitrogen (TDN), 1.8 Tg Total Dissolved P (TDP), and 1.3 × 1021 oocysts in 2010. Cattle, pigs, and chickens are responsible for 74-88% of these pollutants in rivers. One-fourth of the global sub-basins can be considered pollution hotspots and contribute 71-95% to the TDN, TDP, and oocysts in rivers. Our study could contribute to effective manure management for individual livestock species in sub-basins to reduce multiple pollutants in rivers.

Mitigating phosphorus pollution from detergents in the surface waters of China

Phosphorus (P) from detergents contributes to water pollution and eutrophication. Understanding the impacts of detergent use on P inputs to surface waters and their main drivers is vital for supporting Sustainable Development Goals on clean water. This study aims to quantify past and future trends in P inputs to surface waters from detergent use in China. We modify the Model to Assess River Input of Nutrient to seAs (MARINA) model to assess the effects of past policies and explore options for the future on mitigating detergents P losses in China. The total consumption of detergents tripled from 2000 to 2018. However, P inputs to surface waters from detergent use decreased by 35% during these years. Although P losses vary across regions, most losses occurred in rural areas. Clearly, the P-free detergent policy which was initiated in the year 2000 has been effective. Without this policy, the detergent P losses would likely have increased fourfold during 2000-2018. In the future, detergent P inputs to surface waters in China may be further reduced to very low levels (95% reduction relative to 2018) by a combination of completely P-free detergents, an increasing urbanized population connected to sewage systems, and improving P removal in sewage treatment systems. Our results enhance the understanding of P pollution in surface waters from detergents and, illustrate the effectiveness of measures to control detergent P losses.

Modelling rotavirus concentrations in rivers: Assessing Uganda's present and future microbial water quality

Faecal pathogens can be introduced into surface water through open defecation, illegal disposal and inadequate treatment of faecal sludge and wastewater. Despite sanitation improvements, poor countries are progressing slowly towards the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goal 6 by 2030. Sanitation-associated pathogenic contamination of surface waters impacted by future population growth, urbanization and climate change receive limited attention. Therefore, a model simulating human rotavirus river inputs and concentrations was developed combining population density, sanitation coverage, rotavirus incidence, wastewater treatment and environmental survival data, and applied to Uganda. Complementary surface runoff and river discharge data were used to produce spatially explicit rotavirus outputs for the year 2015 and for two scenarios in 2050. Urban open defecation contributed 87%, sewers 9% and illegal faecal sludge disposal 3% to the annual 15.6 log₁₀ rotavirus river inputs in 2015. Monthly concentrations fell between -3.7 (Q5) and 2.6 (Q95) log₁₀ particles per litre, with 1.0 and 2.0 median and mean log₁₀ particles per litre, respectively. Spatially explicit outputs on 0.0833 × 0.0833° grids revealed hotspots as densely populated urban areas. Future population growth, urbanization and poor sanitation were stronger drivers of rotavirus concentrations in rivers than climate change. The model and scenario analysis can be applied to other locations.

Characterizing 19 thousand Chinese lakes, ponds and reservoirs by morphometric, climate and sediment characteristics

Chinese lakes, including ponds and reservoirs, are increasingly threatened by algal blooms. Yet, each lake is unique, leading to large inter-lake variation in lake vulnerability to algal blooms. Here, we aim to assess the effects of unique lake characteristics on lake vulnerability to algal blooms. To this end, we built a novel and comprehensive database of lake morphometric, climate and sediment characteristics of 19,536 Chinese lakes, including ponds and reservoirs (>0.1 km²). We assessed lake characteristics for nine stratification classes and show that lakes, including ponds and reservoirs, in eastern China typically have a warm stratification class (T_avg>4 °C) and are slightly deeper than those in western China. Model results for representative lakes suggest that the most vulnerable lakes to algal blooms are in eastern China where pollution levels are also highest. Our characterization provides an important baseline to inform policymakers in what regions lakes are potentially most vulnerable to algal blooms.

Equality in river pollution control in China

Water pollution is a serious problem in China. This study focuses on equality in pollution control in the Yangtze, Yellow and Pearl. We first quantified environmental targets for nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) at the river mouth. We used the Indicator for Coastal Eutrophication Potential and the Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs (MARINA) to project river export of nutrients. Next, we allocated the environmental targets to sub-basins as allowable levels, based on a Gini optimization approach. We searched for minimum inequality in pollution per unit of GDP, population, basin area, and agricultural area. Our results indicate that without pollution control, the river export of nutrients in 2050 exceed allowable levels. To meet the allowable levels while striving for equality, total dissolved N and P exports from sub-basins need to be reduced by 60 to 97%. The required reductions are largest for sub-basins of the Yellow River. For P, reducing point source inputs to rivers (manure and sewage) may be enough to avoid that allowable levels are exceeded in many sub-basins. For N, more needs to be done. Some sub-basins need to reduce their pollution more than others. Equality considerations call for reducing both point (e.g. recycling manure resources on the land) and diffuse (improve nutrient use efficiencies in agriculture) sources of N in the rivers. Our study is the first to link a Gini based optimization approach with the MARINA model. It may support decision making aimed at cleaner production and at equality in pollution control.

How natural processes contribute to flood protection - A sustainable adaptation scheme for a wide green dike

Effective adaptation to sea-level rise is critical for future flood protection. Nature-based solutions including salt marshes have been proposed to naturally enhance coastal infrastructure. A gently sloping grass-covered dike (i.e. Wide Green Dike) can be strengthened with clay accumulating locally in the salt marsh. This study explores the feasibility of extracting salt-marsh sediment for dike reinforcement as a climate adaptation strategy in several sea-level rise scenarios, using the Wide Green Dike in the Dutch part of the Ems-Dollard estuary as a case study. A 0-D sedimentation model was combined with a wave propagation model, and probabilistic models for wave impact and wave overtopping. This model system was used to determine the area of borrow pits required to supply clay for adequate dikes under different sea-level rise scenarios. For medium to high sea-level rise scenarios (>102 cm by 2100) thickening of the clay layer on the dike is required to compensate for the larger waves resulting from insufficient marsh accretion. The model results indicate that for our case study roughly 9.4 ha of borrow pit is sufficient to supply clay for 1 km of dike reinforcement until 2100. The simulated borrow pits are refilled within 22 simulation years on average, and infilling is projected to accelerate with sea-level rise and pit depth. This study highlights the potential of salt marshes as an asset for adapting flood defences in the future.

Modeling the Contribution of Crops to Nitrogen Pollution in the Yangtze River

Agriculture contributes considerably to nitrogen (N) inputs to the world's rivers. In this study, we aim to improve our understanding of the contribution of different crops to N inputs to rivers. To this end, we developed a new model system by linking the MARINA 2.0 (Model to Assess River Input of Nutrient to seAs) and WOFOST (WOrld FOod STudy) models. We applied this linked model system to the Yangtze as an illustrative example. The N inputs to crops in the Yangtze River basin showed large spatial variability. Our results indicate that approximately 6,000 Gg of N entered all rivers of the Yangtze basin from crop production as dissolved inorganic N (DIN) in 2012. Half of this amount is from the production of single rice, wheat, and vegetables, where synthetic fertilizers were largely applied. In general, animal manure contributes 12% to total DIN inputs to rivers. Three-quarters of manure-related DIN in rivers are from vegetable, fruit, and potato production. The contributions of crops to river pollution differ among sub-basins. For example, potato is an important source of DIN in rivers of some upstream sub-basins. Our results may help to prioritize the dominant crop sources for management to mitigate N pollution in the future.

Assessing seasonal nitrogen export to large tropical lakes

Rivers are exporting increasing amounts of nitrogen (N) to lakes, which is leading to eutrophication. However, the seasonality apparent in nutrient loading, especially in tropical areas, is thus far only partially understood. This study aims to better understand the seasonality and the sources of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) inputs from sub-basins to tropical lakes. We integrated existing approaches into a seasonal model that accounts for seasonality in human activities, meteorology and hydrology, and we applied the model to the sub-basins of a representative tropical lake: Lake Tana, Ethiopia. The model quantifies the river export of DIN by season, source and sub-basin and also accounts for open defecation to land as a diffuse source of N in rivers. Seasonality parameters were calibrated, and model outputs were validated against measured nitrogen loads in the main river outlets. The calibrated model showed good agreement with the measured nitrogen loads at the outflow of the main rivers. The model distinguishes four seasons: rainy (July-September), post-rainy (October-December), dry (January-March) and pre-rainy (April-June). The river export of DIN to Lake Tana was about 9 kton in 2017 and showed spatial and temporal variability: It was highest in the rainy and lowest in the dry seasons. Diffuse sources from agriculture were important contributors of DIN to rivers in 2017, and animal manure was the dominant source in all seasons. Our seasonal sub-basins and rivers model provides opportunities to identify the main nutrient sources to the lake and to formulate effective water quality management options. An example is nutrient application level that correspond to the crop needs in the sub-basins. Furthermore, our model can be used to analyse future trends and serves as an example for other large tropical lakes experiencing eutrophication.

Increasing nitrogen export to sea: A scenario analysis for the Indus River

The Indus River Basin faces severe water quality degradation because of nutrient enrichment from human activities. Excessive nutrients in tributaries are transported to the river mouth, causing coastal eutrophication. This situation may worsen in the future because of population growth, economic development, and climate change. This study aims at a better understanding of the magnitude and sources of current (2010) and future (2050) river export of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) by the Indus River at the sub-basin scale. To do this, we implemented the MARINA 1.0 model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs). The model inputs for human activities (e.g., agriculture, land use) were mainly from the GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model) and EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Model) models. Model inputs for hydrology were from the Community WATer Model (CWATM). For 2050, three scenarios combining Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs 1, 2 and 3) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 6.0) were selected. A novelty of this study is the sub-basin analysis of future N export by the Indus River for SSPs and RCPs. Result shows that river export of TDN by the Indus River will increase by a factor of 1.6-2 between 2010 and 2050 under the three scenarios. >90% of the dissolved N exported by the Indus River is from midstream sub-basins. Human waste is expected to be the major source, and contributes by 66-70% to river export of TDN in 2050 depending on the scenarios. Another important source is agriculture, which contributes by 21-29% to dissolved inorganic N export in 2050. Thus a combined reduction in both diffuse and point sources in the midstream sub-basins can be effective to reduce coastal water pollution by nutrients at the river mouth of Indus.

How to avoid coastal eutrophication - a back-casting study for the North China Plain

Eutrophication is a serious problem in Chinese seas. We explore possibilities to avoid coastal eutrophication without compromising food production in the North China Plain. We used the Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrient to seAs (MARINA 1.0) for back-casting and scenario analysis. Avoiding coastal eutrophication by 2050 implies required reductions in river export of total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) by 50-90% for the Hai, Huai and Huang rivers. We analyzed the potential to meet these targets in 54 scenarios assuming improvements in manure recycling, fertilizer application, animal feed and wastewater treatment. Results indicate that combining manure recycling while reducing synthetic fertilizer use are effective options to reduce nutrient inputs to seas. Without such options, direct discharge of manure are important sources of water pollution. In the 7-25 scenarios with the low eutrophication potential, 40-100% of the N and P in untreated manure is recycled on land to replace synthetic fertilizers. Our results can support the formulation of effective environmental policies to avoid coastal eutrophication in China.

Multi-scale Modeling of Nutrient Pollution in the Rivers of China

Chinese surface waters are severely polluted by nutrients. This study addresses three challenges in nutrient modeling for rivers in China: (1) difficulties in transferring modeling results across biophysical and administrative scales, (2) poor representation of the locations of point sources, and (3) limited incorporation of the direct discharge of manure to rivers. The objective of this study is, therefore, to quantify inputs of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to Chinese rivers from different sources at multiple scales. We developed a novel multi-scale modeling approach including a detailed, state-of-the-art representation of point sources of nutrients in rivers. The model results show that the river pollution and source attributions differ among spatial scales. Point sources accounted for 75% of the total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) inputs to rivers in China in 2012, and diffuse sources accounted for 72% of the total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) inputs. One-third of the sub-basins accounted for more than half of the pollution. Downscaling to the smallest scale (polygons) reveals that 14% and 9% of the area contribute to more than half of the calculated TDN and TDP pollution, respectively. Sources of pollution vary considerably among and within counties. Clearly, multi-scale modeling may help to develop effective policies for water pollution.

Modelling global river export of microplastics to the marine environment: Sources and future trends

Microplastics, transported by rivers to oceans, are triggering environmental concern. This study aims to better understand river export of microplastics from land to sea. We developed the Global Riverine Export of Microplastics into Seas (GREMiS) model, a global, spatially explicit model for analysing the annual microplastics export to coastal seas. Our results indicate that riverine microplastics export varies among world regions, with several hotspots, e.g., South East Asia, and, depending on the 2050 scenario, may be doubled ('Business as usual') or halved due to improved waste management ('Environment profits'). Globally, our model simulations indicated fragmentation of macroplastics as the main source of microplastics, but this result heavily depends on the assumed fragmentation rate. Sewerage discharges contributed only 20%, ranging from 1% (Africa) to 60% (OECD countries) and decreasing by 2050 as a result of improved sanitation. We conclude that, combating microplastics in the aquatic environment requires more region-specific analyses.

Impact hotspots of reduced nutrient discharge shift across the globe with population and dietary changes

Reducing nutrient discharge from wastewater is essential to mitigating aquatic eutrophication; however, energy- and chemicals-intensive nutrient removal processes, accompanied with the emissions of airborne contaminants, can create other, unexpected, environmental consequences. Implementing mitigation strategies requires a complete understanding of the effects of nutrient control practices, given spatial and temporal variations. Here we simulate the environmental impacts of reducing nutrient discharge from domestic wastewater in 173 countries during 1990-2050. We find that improvements in wastewater infrastructure achieve a large-scale decline in nutrient input to surface waters, but this is causing detrimental effects on the atmosphere and the broader environment. Population size and dietary protein intake have the most significant effects over all the impacts arising from reduction of wastewater nutrients. Wastewater-related impact hotspots are also shifting from Asia to Africa, suggesting a need for interventions in such countries, mostly with growing populations, rising dietary intake, rapid urbanisation, and inadequate sanitation.

Excess nutrient loads to Lake Taihu: Opportunities for nutrient reduction

Intensive agriculture and rapid urbanization have increased nutrient inputs to Lake Taihu in recent decades. This resulted in eutrophication. We aim to better understand the sources of river export of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and phosphorus (TDP) to Lake Taihu in relation to critical nutrient loads. We implemented the MARINA-Lake (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs) model for Lake Taihu. The MARINA-Lake model quantifies river export of dissolved inorganic and organic N and P to the lake by source from sub-basins. Results from the PCLake model are used to identify to what extent river export of nutrients exceeds critical loads. We calculate that rivers exported 61 kton of TDN and 2 kton of TDP to Lake Taihu in 2012. More than half of these nutrients were from human activities (e.g., agriculture, urbanization) in Sub-basins I (north) and IV (south). Most of the nutrients were in dissolved inorganic forms. Diffuse sources contributed 90% to river export of TDN with a relatively large share of synthetic fertilizers. Point sources contributed 52% to river export of TDP with a relatively large share of sewage systems. The relative shares of diffuse and point sources varied greatly among nutrient forms and sub-basins. To meet critical loads, river export of TDN and TDP needs to be reduced by 46-92%, depending on the desired level of chlorophyll-a. There are different opportunities to meet the critical loads. Reducing N inputs from synthetic fertilizers and P from sewage systems may be sufficient to meet the least strict critical loads. A combination of reductions in diffuse and point sources is needed to meet the most strict critical loads. Combining improved nutrient use efficiencies and best available technologies in wastewater treatment may be an effective opportunity. Our study can support the formulation of effective solutions for lake restoration.

Cryptosporidium concentrations in rivers worldwide

Cryptosporidium is a leading cause of diarrhoea and infant mortality worldwide. A better understanding of the sources, fate and transport of Cryptosporidium via rivers is important for effective management of waterborne transmission, especially in the developing world. We present GloWPa-Crypto C1, the first global, spatially explicit model that computes Cryptosporidium concentrations in rivers, implemented on a 0.5 × 0.5° grid and monthly time step. To this end, we first modelled Cryptosporidium inputs to rivers from human faeces and animal manure. Next, we use modelled hydrology from a grid-based macroscale hydrological model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model). Oocyst transport through the river network is modelled using a routing model, accounting for temperature- and solar radiation-dependent decay and sedimentation along the way. Monthly average oocyst concentrations are predicted to range from 10^-6 to 10² oocysts L^-1 in most places. Critical regions ('hotspots') with high concentrations include densely populated areas in India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh, Nigeria, Algeria and South Africa, Mexico, Venezuela and some coastal areas of Brazil, several countries in Western and Eastern Europe (incl. The UK, Belgium and Macedonia), and the Middle East. Point sources (human faeces) appears to be a more dominant source of pollution than diffuse sources (mainly animal manure) in most world regions. Validation shows that GloWPa-Crypto medians are mostly within the range of observed concentrations. The model generally produces concentrations that are 1.5-2 log10 higher than the observations. This is likely predominantly due to the absence of recovery efficiency of the observations, which are therefore likely too low. Goodness of fit statistics are reasonable. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is most sensitive to changes in input oocyst loads. GloWPa-Crypto C1 paves the way for many new opportunities at the global scale, including scenario analysis to investigate the impact of global change and management options on oocysts concentrations in rivers, and risk analysis to investigate human health risk.

Causal relationship in the interaction between land cover change and underlying surface climate in the grassland ecosystems in China

Land-climate interactions are driven by causal relations that are difficult to ascertain given the complexity and high dimensionality of the systems. Many methods of statistical and mechanistic models exist to identify and quantify the causality in such highly-interacting systems. Recent advances in remote sensing development allowed people to investigate the land-climate interaction with spatially and temporally continuous data. In this study, we present a new approach to measure how climatic factors interact with each other under land cover change. The quantification method is based on the correlation analysis of the different order derivatives, with the canonical mathematical definitions developed from the theories of system dynamics and practices of the macroscopic observations. We examined the causal relationship between the interacting variables on both spatial and temporal dimensions based on macroscopic observations of land cover change and surface climatic factors through a comparative study in the different grassland ecosystems of China. The results suggested that the interaction of land-climate could be used to explain the temporal lag effect in the comparison of the three grassland ecosystems. Significant spatial correlations between the vegetation and the climatic factors confirmed feedback mechanisms described in the theories of eco-climatology, while the uncertain temporal synchronicity reflects the causality among the key indicators. This has been rarely addressed before. Our research show that spatial correlations and the temporal synchronicity among key indicators of the land surface and climatic factors can be explained by a novel method of causality quantification using derivative analysis.

Hotspots for Nitrogen and Phosphorus Losses from Food Production in China: A County-Scale Analysis

Food production in China results in large losses of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the environment. Our objective is to identify hotspots for N and P losses to the environment from food production in China at the county scale. To do this, we used the NUFER (Nutrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use) model. Between 1990 and 2012, the hotspot area expanded by a factor of 3 for N, and 24 for P. In 2012 most hotspots were found in the North China Plain. Hotspots covered less than 10% of the Chinese land area, but contributed by more than half to N and P losses to the environment. Direct discharge of animal manure to rivers was an important cause of N and P losses. Food production was found to be more intensive in hotspots than in other counties. Synthetic fertilizer use and animal numbers in hotspots were a factor of 4-5 higher than in other counties in 2012. Also the number of people working in food production and the incomes of farmers are higher in hotspots than in other counties. This study concludes with suggestions for region-specific pollution control technologies for food production in China.

River export of triclosan from land to sea: A global modelling approach

Triclosan (TCS) is an antibacterial agent that is added to commonly used personal care products. Emitted to the aquatic environment in large quantities, it poses a potential threat to aquatic organisms. Triclosan enters the aquatic environment mainly through sewage effluent. We developed a global, spatially explicit model, the Global TCS model, to simulate triclosan transport by rivers to coastal areas. With this model we analysed annual, basin-wide triclosan export for the year 2000 and two future scenarios for the year 2050. Our analyses for 2000 indicate that triclosan export to coastal areas in Western Europe, Southeast Asia and the East Coast of the USA is higher than in the rest of the world. For future scenarios, the Global TCS model predicts an increase in river export of triclosan in Southeast Asia and a small decrease in Europe. The number of rivers with an annual average triclosan concentration at the river mouth that exceeds a PNEC of 26.2ng/L is projected to double between 2000 and 2050. This increase is most prominent in Southeast Asia, as a result of fast population growth, increasing urbanisation and increasing numbers of people connected to sewerage systems with poor wastewater treatment. Predicted triclosan loads correspond reasonably well with measured values. However, basin-specific predictions have considerable uncertainty due to lacking knowledge and location-specific data on the processes determining the fate of triclosan in river water, e.g. sorption, degradation and sedimentation. Additional research on the fate of triclosan in river systems is therefore recommended.

CAPSULE

We developed a global spatially explicit model to simulate triclosan export by rivers to coastal seas. For two future scenarios this Global TCS model projects an increase in river export of triclosan to several seas around the world.

Reactive nitrogen losses from China's food system for the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)

Food production in China has been changing fast as a result of socio-economic development. This resulted in an increased use of nitrogen (N) in food production, and also to increased reactive nitrogen (Nr) losses to the environment, causing nitrogen pollution. Our study is the first to quantify future Nr losses from China's food system for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). We show that Nr losses differ largely among SSPs. We first qualitatively described the five SSP storylines for China with a focus on food production and consumption. Next, we interpreted these SSP scenarios quantitatively for 2030 and 2050, using the NUFER (NUtrient Flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use) model to project the Nr losses from China's food system. The results indicate that Nr losses from future food system in China are relatively low for SSP1 and SSP2, and relatively high for SSP3 and SSP4. In SSP5 Nr losses from China's food system are projected to be slightly lower than the level of today.

Export of microplastics from land to sea. A modelling approach

Quantifying the transport of plastic debris from river to sea is crucial for assessing the risks of plastic debris to human health and the environment. We present a global modelling approach to analyse the composition and quantity of point-source microplastic fluxes from European rivers to the sea. The model accounts for different types and sources of microplastics entering river systems via point sources. We combine information on these sources with information on sewage management and plastic retention during river transport for the largest European rivers. Sources of microplastics include personal care products, laundry, household dust and tyre and road wear particles (TRWP). Most of the modelled microplastics exported by rivers to seas are synthetic polymers from TRWP (42%) and plastic-based textiles abraded during laundry (29%). Smaller sources are synthetic polymers and plastic fibres in household dust (19%) and microbeads in personal care products (10%). Microplastic export differs largely among European rivers, as a result of differences in socio-economic development and technological status of sewage treatment facilities. About two-thirds of the microplastics modelled in this study flow into the Mediterranean and Black Sea. This can be explained by the relatively low microplastic removal efficiency of sewage treatment plants in the river basins draining into these two seas. Sewage treatment is generally more efficient in river basins draining into the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. We use our model to explore future trends up to the year 2050. Our scenarios indicate that in the future river export of microplastics may increase in some river basins, but decrease in others. Remarkably, for many basins we calculate a reduction in river export of microplastics from point-sources, mainly due to an anticipated improvement in sewage treatment.

Production of Caproic Acid from Mixed Organic Waste: An Environmental Life Cycle Perspective

Caproic acid is an emerging platform chemical with diverse applications. Recently, a novel biorefinery process, that is, chain elongation, was developed to convert mixed organic waste and ethanol into renewable caproic acids. In the coming years, this process may become commercialized, and continuing to improve on the basis of numerous ongoing technological and microbiological studies. This study aims to analyze the environmental performance of caproic acid production from mixed organic waste via chain elongation at this current, early stage of technological development. To this end, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was performed to evaluate the environmental impact of producing 1 kg caproic acid from organic waste via chain elongation, in both a lab-scale and a pilot-scale system. Two mixed organic waste were used as substrates: the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) and supermarket food waste (SFW). Ethanol use was found to be the dominant cause of environmental impact over the life cycle. Extraction solvent recovery was found to be a crucial uncertainty that may have a substantial influence on the life-cycle impacts. We recommend that future research and industrial producers focus on the reduction of ethanol use in chain elongation and improve the recovery efficiency of the extraction solvent.

Human waste: An underestimated source of nutrient pollution in coastal seas of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan

Many people practice open defecation in south Asia. As a result, lot of human waste containing nutrients such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) enter rivers. Rivers transport these nutrients to coastal waters, resulting in marine pollution. This source of nutrient pollution is, however, ignored in many nutrient models. We quantify nutrient export by large rivers to coastal seas of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, and the associated eutrophication potential in 2000 and 2050. Our new estimates for N and P inputs from human waste are one to two orders of magnitude higher than earlier model calculations. This leads to higher river export of nutrients to coastal seas, increasing the risk of coastal eutrophication potential (ICEP). The newly calculated future ICEP, for instance, Godavori river is 3 times higher than according to earlier studies. Our modeling approach is simple and transparent and can easily be applied to other data-poor basins.

Reducing future river export of nutrients to coastal waters of China in optimistic scenarios

Coastal waters of China are rich in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) and thus often eutrophied. This is because rivers export increasing amounts of nutrients to coastal seas. Animal production and urbanization are important sources of nutrients in Chinese rivers. In this study we explored the future from an optimistic perspective. We present two optimistic scenarios for 2050 (OPT-1 and OPT-2) for China. Maximized recycling of manure on land in OPT-1 and OPT-2, and strict sewage control in OPT-2 (e.g., all sewage is collected and treated efficiently) are essential nutrient strategies in these scenarios. We also analyzed the effect of the current policy plans aiming at "Zero Growth in Synthetic Fertilizers after 2020" (the CP scenario). We used the MARINA (a Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs) model to quantify dissolved N and P export by Chinese rivers to the Bohai Gulf, Yellow Sea and South China Sea and the associated coastal eutrophication potential (ICEP). The Global Orchestration (GO) scenario of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was used as a basis. GO projects increases in river export of dissolved N and P (up to 90%) between 2000 and 2050 and thus a high potential for coastal eutrophication (ICEP>0). In contrast, the potential for coastal eutrophication is low in optimistic scenarios (ICEP<0). This is because in 2050 loads of most dissolved N and P in Chinese seas are around their levels of 1970. Maximizing manure recycling can reduce nutrient pollution of Chinese seas considerably. Sewage control is effective in reducing P export by rivers from urbanized areas. The CP scenario, on the other hand, shows that current policy plans may not be sufficient to avoid coastal eutrophication in the future. Our study may help policy makers in formulating strategies to ensure clean coastal waters in China in the future.

The MARINA model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs): Model description and results for China

Chinese agriculture has been developing fast towards industrial food production systems that discharge nutrient-rich wastewater into rivers. As a result, nutrient export by rivers has been increasing, resulting in coastal water pollution. We developed a Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs (MARINA) for China. The MARINA Nutrient Model quantifies river export of nutrients by source at the sub-basin scale as a function of human activities on land. MARINA is a downscaled version for China of the Global NEWS-2 (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model with an improved approach for nutrient losses from animal production and population. We use the model to quantify dissolved inorganic and organic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) export by six large rivers draining into the Bohai Gulf (Yellow, Hai, Liao), Yellow Sea (Yangtze, Huai) and South China Sea (Pearl) in 1970, 2000 and 2050. We addressed uncertainties in the MARINA Nutrient model. Between 1970 and 2000 river export of dissolved N and P increased by a factor of 2-8 depending on sea and nutrient form. Thus, the risk for coastal eutrophication increased. Direct losses of manure to rivers contribute to 60-78% of nutrient inputs to the Bohai Gulf and 20-74% of nutrient inputs to the other seas in 2000. Sewage is an important source of dissolved inorganic P, and synthetic fertilizers of dissolved inorganic N. Over half of the nutrients exported by the Yangtze and Pearl rivers originated from human activities in downstream and middlestream sub-basins. The Yellow River exported up to 70% of dissolved inorganic N and P from downstream sub-basins and of dissolved organic N and P from middlestream sub-basins. Rivers draining into the Bohai Gulf are drier, and thus transport fewer nutrients. For the future we calculate further increases in river export of nutrients. The MARINA Nutrient model quantifies the main sources of coastal water pollution for sub-basins. This information can contribute to formulation of effective management options to reduce nutrient pollution of Chinese seas in the future.

Indonesia palm oil production without deforestation and peat conversion by 2050

Palm oil is a promising source of cooking oil and biodiesel. The demand for palm oil has been increasing worldwide. However, concerns exist surrounding the environmental and socio-economic sustainability of palm oil production. Indonesia is a major palm oil producing country. We explored scenarios for palm oil production in Indonesia until 2050, focusing on Sumatra, Kalimantan and Papua. Our scenarios describe possible trends in crude palm oil production in Indonesia, while considering the demand for cooking oil and biodiesel, the available land for plantations, production capacity (for crude palm oil and fresh fruit bunches) and environmentally restricting conditions. We first assessed past developments in palm oil production. Next, we analysed scenarios for the future. In the past 20years, 95% of the Indonesian oil palm production area was in Sumatra and Kalimantan and was increasingly cultivated in peatlands. Our scenarios for the future indicate that Indonesia can meet a considerable part of the global and Asian demand for palm oil, while avoiding further cultivation of peatlands and forest. By 2050, 264-447Mt crude palm oil may be needed for cooking oil and biodiesel worldwide. In Indonesia, the area that is potentially suitable for oil palm is 17 to 26Mha with a potential production rate of 27-38t fresh fruit bunches/ha, yielding 130-176Mt crude palm oil. Thus Indonesia can meet 39-60% of the international demand. In our scenarios this would be produced in Sumatra (21-26%), Kalimantan (12-16%), and Papua (2%). The potential areas include the current oil palm plantation in mineral lands, but exclude the current oil palm plantations in peatlands.

Comparison of different methods to include recycling in LCAs of aluminium cans and disposable polystyrene cups

Many methods have been reported and used to include recycling in life cycle assessments (LCAs). This paper evaluates six widely used methods: three substitution methods (i.e. substitution based on equal quality, a correction factor, and alternative material), allocation based on the number of recycling loops, the recycled-content method, and the equal-share method. These six methods were first compared, with an assumed hypothetical 100% recycling rate, for an aluminium can and a disposable polystyrene (PS) cup. The substitution and recycled-content method were next applied with actual rates for recycling, incineration and landfilling for both product systems in selected countries. The six methods differ in their approaches to credit recycling. The three substitution methods stimulate the recyclability of the product and assign credits for the obtained recycled material. The choice to either apply a correction factor, or to account for alternative substituted material has a considerable influence on the LCA results, and is debatable. Nevertheless, we prefer incorporating quality reduction of the recycled material by either a correction factor or an alternative substituted material over simply ignoring quality loss. The allocation-on-number-of-recycling-loops method focusses on the life expectancy of material itself, rather than on a specific separate product. The recycled-content method stimulates the use of recycled material, i.e. credits the use of recycled material in products and ignores the recyclability of the products. The equal-share method is a compromise between the substitution methods and the recycled-content method. The results for the aluminium can follow the underlying philosophies of the methods. The results for the PS cup are additionally influenced by the correction factor or credits for the alternative material accounting for the drop in PS quality, the waste treatment management (recycling rate, incineration rate, landfilling rate), and the source of avoided electricity in case of waste incineration. The results for the PS cup, which are less dominated by production of virgin material than aluminium can, furthermore depend on the environmental impact categories. This stresses the importance to consider other impact categories besides the most commonly used global warming impact. The multitude of available methods complicates the choice of an appropriate method for the LCA practitioner. New guidelines keep appearing and industries also suggest their own preferred method. Unambiguous ISO guidelines, particularly related to sensitivity analysis, would be a great step forward in making more robust LCAs.

Coastal eutrophication in Europe caused by production of energy crops

In Europe, the use of biodiesel may increase rapidly in the coming decades as a result of policies aiming to increase the use of renewable fuels. Therefore, the production of biofuels from energy crops is expected to increase as well as the use of fertilisers to grow these crops. Since fertilisers are an important cause of eutrophication, the use of biodiesel may have an effect on the water quality in rivers and coastal seas. In this study we explored the possible effects of increased biodiesel use on coastal eutrophication in European seas in the year 2050. To this end, we defined a number of illustrative scenarios in which the biodiesel production increases to about 10-30% of the current diesel use. The scenarios differ with respect to the assumptions on where the energy crops are cultivated: either on land that is currently used for agriculture, or on land used for other purposes. We analysed these scenarios with the Global NEWS (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model. We used an existing Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenario for 2050, Global Orchestration (GO2050), as a baseline. In this baseline scenario the amount of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) exported by European rivers to coastal seas decreases between 2000 and 2050 as a result of environmental and agricultural policies. In our scenarios with increased biodiesel production the river export of N and P increases between 2000 and 2050, indicating that energy crop production may more than counterbalance this decrease. Largest increases in nutrient export were calculated for the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea. Differences in nutrient export among river basins are large.

Possible future effects of large-scale algae cultivation for biofuels on coastal eutrophication in Europe

Biodiesel is increasingly considered as an alternative for fossil diesel. Biodiesel can be produced from rapeseed, palm, sunflower, soybean and algae. In this study, the consequences of large-scale production of biodiesel from micro-algae for eutrophication in four large European seas are analysed. To this end, scenarios for the year 2050 are analysed, assuming that in the 27 countries of the European Union fossil diesel will be replaced by biodiesel from algae. Estimates are made for the required fertiliser inputs to algae parks, and how this may increase concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in coastal waters, potentially leading to eutrophication. The Global NEWS (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model has been used to estimate the transport of nitrogen and phosphorus to the European coastal waters. The results indicate that the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus in the coastal waters may increase considerably in the future as a result of large-scale production of algae for the production of biodiesel, even in scenarios assuming effective waste water treatment and recycling of waste water in algae production. To ensure sustainable production of biodiesel from micro-algae, it is important to develop cultivation systems with low nutrient losses to the environment.

Multiple data sets and modelling choices in a comparative LCA of disposable beverage cups

This study used multiple data sets and modelling choices in an environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare typical disposable beverage cups made from polystyrene (PS), polylactic acid (PLA; bioplastic) and paper lined with bioplastic (biopaper). Incineration and recycling were considered as waste processing options, and for the PLA and biopaper cup also composting and anaerobic digestion. Multiple data sets and modelling choices were systematically used to calculate average results and the spread in results for each disposable cup in eleven impact categories. The LCA results of all combinations of data sets and modelling choices consistently identify three processes that dominate the environmental impact: (1) production of the cup's basic material (PS, PLA, biopaper), (2) cup manufacturing, and (3) waste processing. The large spread in results for impact categories strongly overlaps among the cups, however, and therefore does not allow a preference for one type of cup material. Comparison of the individual waste treatment options suggests some cautious preferences. The average waste treatment results indicate that recycling is the preferred option for PLA cups, followed by anaerobic digestion and incineration. Recycling is slightly preferred over incineration for the biopaper cups. There is no preferred waste treatment option for the PS cups. Taking into account the spread in waste treatment results for all cups, however, none of these preferences for waste processing options can be justified. The only exception is composting, which is least preferred for both PLA and biopaper cups. Our study illustrates that using multiple data sets and modelling choices can lead to considerable spread in LCA results. This makes comparing products more complex, but the outcomes more robust.