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Cohen G, Rowland ST, Benavides J, Lindert J, Kioumourtzoglou MA, Parks RM. Daily temperature variability and mental health-related hospital visits in New York State. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 257:119238. [PMID: 38815717 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.119238] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2024] [Revised: 05/11/2024] [Accepted: 05/25/2024] [Indexed: 06/01/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite plausible behavioral and physiological pathways, limited evidence exists on how daily temperature variability is associated with acute mental health-related episodes. OBJECTIVES We aimed to explore associations between daily temperature range (DTR) and mental health-related hospital visits using data of all hospital records in New York State during 1995-2014. We further examined factors that may modify these associations, including age, sex, hospital visit type and season. METHODS Using a case-crossover design with distributed lag non-linear DTR terms (0-6 days), we estimated associations between ZIP Code-level DTR and hospital visits for mood (4.6 million hospital visits), anxiety (2.4 million), adjustment (∼368,000), and schizophrenia disorders (∼211,000), controlling for daily mean temperature, via conditional logistic regression models. We assessed potential heterogeneity by age, sex, hospital visit type (in-patient vs. out-patient), and season (summer, winter, and transition seasons). RESULTS For all included outcomes, we observed positive associations from period minimum DTR (0.1 °C) until 25th percentile (5.2 °C) and between mean DTR (7.7 °C) and 90th percentile (12.2 °C), beyond which we observed negative associations. For mood disorders, an increase in DTR from 0.1 °C to 12.2 °C was associated with a cumulative 16.0% increase (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.8, 19.2%) in hospital visit rates. This increase was highest during transition seasons (32.5%; 95%CI: 26.4, 39.0%) compared with summer (10.7%; 95%CI: 4.8, 16.8%) and winter (-1.6%; 95%CI: -7.6, 4.7%). For adjustment and schizophrenia disorders, the strongest associations were seen among the youngest group (0-24 years) with almost no association in the oldest group (65+ years). We observed no evidence for modification by sex and hospital visit type. DISCUSSION Daily temperature variability was positively associated with mental health-related hospital visits within specific DTR ranges in New York State, after controlling for daily mean temperature. Given uncertainty on how climate change modifies temperature variability, additional research is crucial to comprehend the implications of these findings, particularly under different scenarios of future temperature variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gali Cohen
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Israel
| | - Sebastian T Rowland
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Jaime Benavides
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Jutta Lindert
- Department of Health and Social Work, University of Applied Sciences Emden, Emden, Germany
| | | | - Robbie M Parks
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
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Wu WT, Kono M, Lee CP, Chang YY, Yang YH, Lin CC, Liu TM, Li HC, Chen YM, Chen PC. Climate Change Projections for Stroke Incidence in Taiwan: Impact of 2 °C and 4 °C Global Warming Level. J Epidemiol Glob Health 2024; 14:1319-1331. [PMID: 39222225 PMCID: PMC11442790 DOI: 10.1007/s44197-024-00289-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2024] [Accepted: 08/19/2024] [Indexed: 09/04/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study aimed to establish the exposure-lag-response effect between daily maximum temperature and stroke-related emergency department visits and to project heat-induced stroke impacts under global warming levels (GWL) of 2 °C and 4 °C. METHODS Stroke-related emergency department visits in Taiwan from 2001 to 2020 were identified using the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). The study population consisted of 1,100,074 initial stroke cases matched with 2,200,148 non-stroke controls. We employed Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models (DLNM) in a case-crossover study to investigate the association between temperature and stroke. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) models with a Poisson function were used to correlate high-temperature exposure with annual stroke incidence rates. Projections were made under two global warming scenarios, GWL 2.0 °C and 4.0 °C, using Coupled General Circulation Model (GCMs). Baseline data from 1995 to 2014 were transformed for spatial distribution at the township level. Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis was performed using Quantum GIS 3.2.0 software. RESULTS DLNM exposure-lag-response effect revealed that daily maximum temperature exceeding 34 °C significantly increased the risk of stroke-related emergency department visits, particularly for ischemic stroke. Under the 2 °C GWL scenario, the frequency of days with temperatures surpassing 34 °C is projected to rise substantially by the median year of 2042, with a further increase to 92.6 ± 18.0 days/year by 2065 under the 4 °C GWL scenario. Ischemic stroke showed the highest increase in temperature-related incidence rates, notably rising from 7.80% under the GWL 2 °C to 36.06% under the GWL 4 °C. Specifically, the annual temperature-related incidence rate for ischemic stroke is expected to increase significantly by 2065. Regions such as Taichung, Hsinchu, Yilan, and Taitung demonstrated pronounced changes in heat-related ischemic stroke incidence under the GWL 4 °C. CONCLUSIONS The findings emphasize the importance of addressing temperature-related stroke risks, particularly in regions projected to experience significant temperature increases. Effective mitigation strategies are crucial to reduce the impact of rising temperatures on stroke incidence and safeguard public health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei-Te Wu
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, No. 35, Keyan Rd., Zhunan Township, Miaoli County, 350401, Taiwan, ROC.
- Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Yang-Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan.
| | - Miku Kono
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, No. 35, Keyan Rd., Zhunan Township, Miaoli County, 350401, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Chuan-Pin Lee
- Health Information and Epidemiology Laboratory, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi County, Taiwan
- Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi County, Taiwan
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Yu-Yin Chang
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, No. 35, Keyan Rd., Zhunan Township, Miaoli County, 350401, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Yao-Hsu Yang
- Health Information and Epidemiology Laboratory, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi County, Taiwan
- Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi County, Taiwan
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Ching-Chun Lin
- Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Tzu-Ming Liu
- National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, New Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - Hsin-Chi Li
- National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, New Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - Yung-Ming Chen
- National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, New Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - Pau-Chung Chen
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, No. 35, Keyan Rd., Zhunan Township, Miaoli County, 350401, Taiwan, ROC
- Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Public Health, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan
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3
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Yan X, Li J, Wu J, Lin S, Wang Z, Pei L, Zheng C, Wang X, Cao X, Hu Z, Tian Y. Association between short-term daily temperature variability and blood pressure in the Chinese population: From the China hypertension survey. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 184:108463. [PMID: 38324925 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108463] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2023] [Revised: 01/04/2024] [Accepted: 01/28/2024] [Indexed: 02/09/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We aimed to evaluate the impacts of short-term daily temperature variability (DTV) on blood pressure (BP) among participants with normotension, prehypertension, and hypertension, respectively, and explore the effects in different climate zones and seasons. METHODS A representative population sample (n = 397,173) covering the subtropical, temperate continental, and temperate monsoon zones was obtained from the China Hypertension Survey. DTV was calculated as the standard deviation of daily minimum and maximum temperatures during the exposure days. The linear mixed effect regression model was used to estimate the associations between DTV exposure and BP among normotension, prehypertension, and hypertension, respectively, and further stratified analysis was performed by climate zones and seasons. RESULTS After adjustment for confounders, per interquartile range (IQR) increase in DTV (2.28 °C) at 0-6 days of exposure was associated with an increase of 0.41 mmHg (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.07, 0.75) in systolic BP (SBP) and 0.41 mmHg (95 % CI: 0.09, 0.72) in pulse pressure (PP) among hypertensive participants in the subtropical zone. Similarly, DTV exposure was associated with an increase of 0.31 mmHg (95 % CI: 0.06, 0.55) in SBP and 0.59 mmHg (95 % CI: 0.24, 0.94) in PP among prehypertensive participants in the temperate continental zone. Additionally, during the warm season, DTV was positively associated with SBP among populations with prehypertension and hypertension, and with PP among all three populations. CONCLUSION Short-term DTV exposure was associated with an increase in SBP and PP among hypertensive and prehypertensive participants in the subtropical zone and the temperate continental zone. In addition, positive associations of DTV with SBP and PP were observed among participants with prehypertension and hypertension in the warm season. Comprehensive health education and effective intervention strategies should be implemented to mitigate the effects of temperature variations on BP, particularly among prehypertensive and hypertensive populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaojin Yan
- Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Jiajia Li
- Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Jilei Wu
- Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Shiqi Lin
- Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Zengwu Wang
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Peking Union Medical College & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China.
| | - Lijun Pei
- Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
| | - Congyi Zheng
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Peking Union Medical College & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
| | - Xin Wang
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Peking Union Medical College & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
| | - Xue Cao
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Peking Union Medical College & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
| | - Zhen Hu
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Peking Union Medical College & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
| | - Yixin Tian
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Peking Union Medical College & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
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Cheng BJ, Li H, Meng K, Li TL, Meng XC, Wang J, Wang C, Jiang N, Sun MJ, Yang LS, Zhu XY, Liu R. Short-term effects of heatwaves on clinical and subclinical cardiovascular indicators in Chinese adults: A distributed lag analysis. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 183:108358. [PMID: 38056095 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108358] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2023] [Revised: 11/11/2023] [Accepted: 11/28/2023] [Indexed: 12/08/2023]
Abstract
AIMS Previous studies have related heat waves to morbidity and mortality of cardiovascular diseases; however, potential mechanisms remained limited. Our aims were to investigate the short-term effects of heat waves on a series of clinical/subclinical indicators associated with cardiovascular health. METHODS Our study used 80,574 health examination records from the Health Management Center of Nanjing Zhongda Hospital during the warm seasons of 2019-2021, including 62,128 participants. A total of 11 recognized indicators of cardiovascular risk or injury were assessed. Air pollution and meteorological data were obtained from the Nanjing Ecological Environment Bureau and the China Meteorological Data Network, respectively. Heat waves were defined as a daily average temperature over the 95th percentile for three or more consecutive days from May to September. We used a combination of linear mixed effects models and distributed lag nonlinear models to assess the lagged effects of heat waves on clinical and subclinical cardiovascular indicators. Stratified analyses based on individuals' characteristics, including gender, age, body mass index (BMI), diabetes, and hypertension, were also performed. RESULTS Heat waves were related to significant changes in most indicators, with the magnitude of effects generally peaking at a lag of 0 to 3 days. Moreover, the cumulative percentage changes over lag 0-7 days were -0.82 % to -2.55 % in blood pressure, 1.32 % in heart rate, 0.20 % to 2.66 % in systemic inflammation markers, 0.36 % in a blood viscosity parameter, 9.36 % in homocysteine, and 1.35 % to 3.25 % in injuring myocardial enzymes. Interestingly, females and males showed distinct susceptibilities in different indicators. Stronger effects were also found in participants aged 50 years or over, individuals with abnormal BMI status, and patients with diabetes. CONCLUSION Short-term exposure to heat waves could significantly alter clinical/subclinical cardiovascular indicator profiles, including blood pressure changes, increased heart rate, acute systemic inflammation, elevated blood viscosity, and myocardial injury.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bei-Jing Cheng
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China
| | - Hui Li
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China
| | - Ke Meng
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China
| | - Tian-Lin Li
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China
| | - Xing-Chen Meng
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China
| | - Jia Wang
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China
| | - Chun Wang
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China
| | - Nan Jiang
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China
| | - Ming-Jun Sun
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China
| | - Lin-Sheng Yang
- School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Xin-Yi Zhu
- The Affiliated Zhongda Hospital, Medical School of Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China
| | - Ran Liu
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China.
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Aghababaeian H, Sharafkhani R, Kiarsi M, Mehranfar S, Moosavi A, Araghi Ahvazi L, Aboubakri O. Diurnal temperature range and hospital admission due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Dezful, a city with hot climate and high DTR fluctuation in Iran: an ecological time-series study. ENVIRONMENTAL GEOCHEMISTRY AND HEALTH 2023:10.1007/s10653-023-01533-8. [PMID: 37000334 DOI: 10.1007/s10653-023-01533-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2022] [Accepted: 02/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
The results of previous studies have indicated the effects of temperature changes on health status. The present study was conducted to investigate the effects of diurnal temperature range (DTR) and hospital admission on cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Dezful, in Iran. In this ecological time-series study, data related to hospital admissions based on ICD-10, meteorological, and climatological data were gathered over a period of six years from 2014 to 2019. A distributed lag nonlinear model combined with a quasi-Poisson regression was then used to assess the impact of DTR on cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions. Potential confounders, including wind speed, air pollution, seasonality, time trend, weekends and holidays, days of week, and humidity were controlled. In extreme low DTRs, the cumulative effects of cardiovascular admissions significantly increased in total, and in warm and cold seasons (Lag0-21, P ≤ 0.05). In addition, in extreme high DTRs, the cumulative effects of cardiovascular significantly decreased in total (Lag0-13 and Lag0-21, P ≤ 0.05), and in warm (Lag0-21, P ≤ 0.05) and cold seasons (Lag0-21, P ≤ 0.05). Moreover, respiratory admissions significantly decreased in total (Lag0-21, P ≤ 0.05) and in warm season (Lag0-21, P ≤ 0.05).Our result indicates that extreme low DTRs could increase the risk of daily cardiovascular admissions, and extreme high DTRs may cause a protective effect on daily respiratory and cardiovascular admissions in some regions with high fluctuations in DTR.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hamidreza Aghababaeian
- Department of Medical Emergencies, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
| | - Rahim Sharafkhani
- School of Public Health, Khoy University of Medical Sciences, Khoy, Iran.
| | - Maryam Kiarsi
- Department of Medical Emergencies, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
| | - Shahzad Mehranfar
- Department of Nursing, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
| | - Ahmad Moosavi
- Department of Community Medicine, School of Medicine, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
| | - Ladan Araghi Ahvazi
- Department of Medical Emergencies, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
| | - Omid Aboubakri
- Environmental Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
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Aghila Rani KG, Soares NC, Rahman B, Al-Hroub HM, Semreen MH, Al Kawas S. Effects of medwakh smoking on salivary metabolomics and its association with altered oral redox homeostasis among youth. Sci Rep 2023; 13:1870. [PMID: 36725974 PMCID: PMC9891755 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-27958-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2022] [Accepted: 01/10/2023] [Indexed: 02/03/2023] Open
Abstract
The use of alternative tobacco products, particularly medwakh, has expanded among youth in the Middle East and around the world. The present study is conducted to investigate the biochemical and pathophysiological changes caused by medwakh smoking, and to examine the salivary metabolomics profile of medwakh smokers. Saliva samples were collected from 30 non-smokers and 30 medwakh smokers and subjected to metabolomic analysis by UHPLC-ESI-QTOF-MS. The CRP and Glutathione Peroxidase 1 activity levels in the study samples were quantified by ELISA and the total antioxidant capacity (TAC) by TAC assay kits. Statistical measurements and thorough validation of data obtained from untargeted metabolomics identified 37 uniquely and differentially abundant metabolites in saliva of medwakh smokers. The levels of phthalate, L-sorbose, cytosine, uridine, alpha-hydroxy hippurate, and L-nicotine were noticeably high in medwakh smokers. Likewise, 20 metabolic pathways were differentially altered in medwakh smokers. This study identified a distinctive saliva metabolomics profile in medwakh smokers associated with altered redox homeostasis, metabolic pathways, antioxidant system, and CRP levels. The impact of the altered metabolites in medwakh smokers and their diagnostic utility require further research in large cohorts.
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Affiliation(s)
- K G Aghila Rani
- Sharjah Institute for Medical Research, University of Sharjah, P.O. Box 27272, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Nelson C Soares
- Sharjah Institute for Medical Research, University of Sharjah, P.O. Box 27272, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates.,Department of Medicinal Chemistry, College of Pharmacy, University of Sharjah, P.O. Box 27272, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates.,Department of Human Genetics, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Betul Rahman
- Sharjah Institute for Medical Research, University of Sharjah, P.O. Box 27272, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates.,Department of Preventive and Restorative Dentistry, College of Dental Medicine, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Hamza M Al-Hroub
- Sharjah Institute for Medical Research, University of Sharjah, P.O. Box 27272, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Mohammad H Semreen
- Sharjah Institute for Medical Research, University of Sharjah, P.O. Box 27272, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates. .,Department of Medicinal Chemistry, College of Pharmacy, University of Sharjah, P.O. Box 27272, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates.
| | - Sausan Al Kawas
- Sharjah Institute for Medical Research, University of Sharjah, P.O. Box 27272, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates. .,Department of Oral and Craniofacial Health Sciences, College of Dental Medicine, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates.
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Hou K, Zhang L, Xu X, Yang F, Chen B, Hu W, Shu R. High ambient temperatures are associated with urban crime risk in Chicago. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 856:158846. [PMID: 36122719 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158846] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2022] [Revised: 09/02/2022] [Accepted: 09/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Urban crime (UC) seriously affects the security and stability of the communities and society. However, the effects of external temperatures on the risk of UC are still confusing. We quantitatively estimated the effects of high and low temperatures on UC in Chicago. After controlling for the confounding factors, we found that high temperature has a positive promoting effect on UC, for non-domestic crime, the effect occurs at lag day 0 with a maximum risk of 1.40 (95%CI, 1.34-1.46) compared to a risk of 1 at temperature of -12.3 °C, and decreased as the lag day increased. The effect of low temperature is not significant for UC. Heat waves above the 99th percentile with a duration of 4.5-5.5 days exert a significant positive impact on non-domestic crime of UC. Our findings confirm the adverse promotion effect of high temperature on UC risk, and effective individual behavior guidance and administrative intervention are of great significance for reducing the risk of UC under specific high temperature environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kun Hou
- School of Remote Sensing and Geomatics Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
| | - Liqiang Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Xia Xu
- Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau, Nanjing 210029, China
| | - Feng Yang
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
| | - Baozhang Chen
- School of Remote Sensing and Geomatics Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
| | - Wei Hu
- College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, Zhejiang, China
| | - Rui Shu
- School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
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