Spatio-temporal analysis of PM2.5 and policies in Northwestern South America

The impact of Chinese foreign direct investment and environmental tax revenues on air degradation in Europe: a spatial regression approach, 2000-2020

This study analyzes air pollution through the effects of China's FDI in 27 European countries over a 20-year period, with a focus on the impact of environmental tax revenues (ETRs) and the environmental context in China. The relationship is estimated through spatial regressions that account for the presence of air pollutants in neighboring countries. The findings suggest that China's FDI in Europe does not contribute to air pollution but rather has a positive impact. The presence of environmental charges filters out non-polluting investments, which has a non-linear relationship with PM2.5 pollution rates. The study also concludes that air pollution is closely linked to the global environmental context, highlighting the positive effects of international agreements in the fight against climate change. Specifically, the study finds a link between China's efforts to address its polluting activities and their impact on European air quality.

Modulation of PM2.5 in tropical South America by the upper-level atmospheric circulation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases

In the Amazon basin, biomass burning has been identified as a major cause of poor regional air quality and the dominant source of particulate matter (PM). In this study, we analyse the impact of the upper-level jet on PM2.5 (PM with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm) concentrations in tropical South America (SA) from December to February during the period 2003-2022. Furthermore, we investigate the response of air pollutants to the joint modulation by the upper-level jet and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We find that PM2.5 concentrations in north-eastern Brazil are reduced on days when the subtropical jet (STJ) is absent due to enhanced convection and precipitation over the region. This improvement in air quality is independent of the ENSO phase. Conversely, a prominent STJ inhibits convection and contributes to dry conditions that favour increased biomass burning and elevated pollutant concentrations. Furthermore, the co-occurrence of a prominent STJ with an El Niño phase acts synergistically to increase pollutant concentrations, as both reduce precipitation in north-eastern Brazil. In combination with La Niña, this upper-level pattern does not exert any modulation of the PM2.5 concentrations, as the wet conditions favoured by this ENSO phase prevail to reduce biomass burning.

Latitudinal and temporal distribution of aerosols and precipitable water vapor in the tropical Andes from AERONET, sounding, and MERRA-2 data

The aerosol and precipitable water vapor (PW) distribution over the tropical Andes region is characterized using Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations at stations in Medellin (Colombia), Quito (Ecuador), Huancayo (Peru), and La Paz (Bolivia). AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD) is interpreted using PM2.5 data when available. Columnar water vapor derived from ozone soundings at Quito is used to compare against AERONET PW. MERRA-2 data are used to complement analyses. Urban pollution and biomass burning smoke (BBS) dominate the regional aerosol composition. AOD and PM2.5 yearly cycles for coincident measurements correlate linearly at Medellin and Quito. The Andes cordillera's orientation and elevation funnel or block BBS transport into valleys or highlands during the two fire seasons that systematically impact South America. The February-March season north of Colombia and the Colombian-Venezuelan border directly impacts Medellin. Possibly, the March aerosol signal over Quito has a long-range transport component. At Huancayo and La Paz, AOD increases in September due to the influence of BBS in the Amazon. AERONET PW and sounding data correlate linearly but a dry bias with respect to soundings was identified in AERONET. PW and rainfall progressively decrease from north to south due to increasing altitude. This regional diagnosis is an underlying basis to evaluate future changes in aerosol and PW given prevailing conditions of rapidly changing atmospheric composition.

Air pollution analysis in Northwestern South America: A new Lagrangian framework

This study examines the spatiotemporal variations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, O3, NO, and NO2 concentrations in Northwestern South America (NWSA). We assess the efficacy of existing policies, identify underlying phenomena, and highlight areas for further research. Significant findings have emerged by analyzing reanalysis and in-situ data, employing the WRF-Chem model, and utilizing a new Lagrangian framework designed to overcome some drawbacks common to analysis of pollution Long-Range Transport. Wildfires in the first half of the year and volcanic activity (for SO2) in July-August contribute to over 90 % of the pollutant's advection, leading to high pollution levels in urban areas. SO2 volcanic emissions contribute to secondary PM, explaining the peak in PM concentrations in Cali in July. In the second half of the year, pollutant behavior varies based on factors such as city characteristics, vehicular-volume, air temperature, wind speed, and boundary layer height, and O3 is influenced by solar radiation and the NO/NO2 ratio. Diurnal variations of PM and NOx correlate with vehicular density, SO2 with industrial activity, and O3 depends on solar radiation. Trend analysis reveals decreasing PM10 levels except in three Cundinamarca cities and Cali suggesting the need to implement/evaluate control plans in those locations. Although data is limited, NO and NO2 levels show an increasing trend due to the rising number of vehicles. SO2 levels are decreasing, except in Cali, potentially influenced by the nearby industrial and polluted city of Yumbo. O3 displays a downward trend in most cities, except Bogotá, due to the NO/NO2 ratio favoring O3 increase. These findings provide a starting point for further research to deepen our understanding of NWSA air pollution. Such investigations are essential before modifying existing policies or enacting new ones. Collaborative efforts at the international, regional, and inter-city levels are crucial for effective air quality management.

Intra-urban variability of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 in five cities in Colombia

Rapidly urbanizing cities in Latin America experience high levels of air pollution which are known risk factors for population health. However, the estimates of long-term exposure to air pollution are scarce in the region. We developed intraurban land use regression (LUR) models to map long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the five largest cities in Colombia. We conducted air pollution measurement campaigns using gravimetric PM2.5 and passive NO2 sensors for 2 weeks during both the dry and rainy seasons in 2021 in the cities of Barranquilla, Bucaramanga, Bogotá, Cali, and Medellín, and combined these data with geospatial and meteorological variables. Annual models were developed using multivariable spatial regression models. The city annual PM2.5 mean concentrations measured ranged between 12.32 and 15.99 µg/m3 while NO2 concentrations ranged between 24.92 and 49.15 µg/m3. The PM2.5 annual models explained 82% of the variance (R2) in Medellín, 77% in Bucaramanga, 73% in Barranquilla, 70% in Cali, and 44% in Bogotá. The NO2 models explained 65% of the variance in Bucaramanga, 57% in Medellín, 44% in Cali, 40% in Bogotá, and 30% in Barranquilla. Most of the predictor variables included in the models were a combination of specific land use characteristics and roadway variables. Cross-validation suggests that PM2.5 outperformed NO2 models. The developed models can be used as exposure estimate in epidemiological studies, as input in hybrid models to improve personal exposure assessment, and for policy evaluation.

Insights into quantitative evaluation technology of PM2.5 transport at multi-perspective and multi-spatial and temporal scales in the north China plain

Cross-border transport is a crucial factor affecting air quality, while how to quantify the transport contribution through different technologies at multi-perspective and multi-scale have not been fully understood. This study established three quantification techniques, and conducted a systematic assessment of PM2.5 transport over the North China Plain (NCP) based on numerical simulations and vertical observations. Results suggested that the annual local emissions, inter-urban and outer-regional transport contributed 44.5%-64.6%, 15.2%-27.9% and 18.0%-28.2% of total surface PM2.5 concentrations, respectively, with transport intensity stronger in July and April, yet weaker in January and October. The southwest-northeast, northeast-southwest, and southeast-northwest were three prevailing transport directions near the surface. By comparison, the annual PM2.5 transport contribution below the atmospheric boundary layer height increased by 16.8%-24.5% in Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang, with inter-urban and outer-regional contribution of 29.8%-32.1% and 18.5%-23.1%. Furthermore, observed fluxes from fixed-point and vehicle-based mobile lidar were in good agreement with the simulated flux. PM2.5 net flux intensity varied with height, with generally larger at the middle- and high-altitude layer than that of low-altitude layer. In the early, during and late period of haze peak formation (Stage Ⅰ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ, respectively), the largest absolute flux intensity on average was Stage Ⅱ (566.7 t/d), followed by Stage Ⅲ (307.0 t/d) and Ⅰ (191.4 t/d). Besides, external transport may dominate the second concentration peak, while local emissions may play a more vital role in the first and third peaks. It has been noted that joint prevention and control measures should be proposed 1-2 days before reaching PM2.5 extremes. These findings could improve our understanding of transport influence mechanism of PM2.5 and propose effective emission reduction measures in the NCP region.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the relationships between PM2.5 concentrations and their drivers in China's coastal ports

PM2.5 is one of the primary air pollutants that affect air quality and threat human health in the port areas. To prevent and control air pollution, it is essential to understand the spatiotemporal distributions of PM2.5 concentrations and their key drivers in ports. 19 coastal ports of China are selected to examine the spatiotemporal distributions of PM2.5 concentrations during 2013-2020. The annual average PM2.5 concentration decreases from 61.03 μg/m3 to 30.17 μg/m3, with an average decrease rate of 51.57%. Significant spatial autocorrelation exists among PM2.5 concentrations of ports. The result of the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model shows significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the effects of meteorological and socioeconomic factors on PM2.5 concentrations. The effects of boundary layer height on PM2.5 concentrations are found to be negative in most ports, with a stronger effect found in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and some ports of the Bohai Rim Area. The total precipitation shows negative effects on PM2.5 concentrations, with the strongest effect found in ports of the Southeast Coast. The effects of surface pressure on PM2.5 concentrations are positive, with stronger effects found in Beibu Gulf Port and Zhanjiang Port. The effects of wind speed on PM2.5 concentrations generally increase from south to north. Cargo throughput shows strong and positive effects on PM2.5 concentrations in ports of Bohai Rim Area; the positive effects found in Beibu Gulf Port increased from 2013 to 2018 and decreased since 2019. The positive effects of GDP and nighttime light on PM2.5 concentrations gradually decrease and turn negative from south to north. Understandings obtained from this study can potentially support the prevention and control of air pollution in China's coastal ports.

Design of an energy vulnerability index - spatial and temporal analysis: case of study Colombia

Climate change might affect energy production and therefore the energy security of a country or region. This situation may impact renewable energy sources such as hydro power, leading to consequences on energy transition strategies. This might be critical in sensitive regions to climate change, one of them being the Caribe and northern South America. Since there are numerous energy systems based on sensitive technologies worldwide, it is necessary to introduce techniques to analyze the effects of climate change on different possible energy transition paths. The goal of this study is to develop and assess a method to analyze one of the most critical effects faced by climate change for societies worldwide: the sensitivity of the energy systems to climate change. This is especially critical in developing countries, in locations where temperatures will strongly increase in the following years. To assess this effect, this study proposes a vulnerability index (VI) to evaluate the vulnerability of an on-grid electricity system to climate change at the national and regional scales. This index was assessed using a Monte-Carlo method for uncertainty. The case of Colombia, a country with a system based on hydropower (> 70%) is used to illustrate the method. VI is based on variables related to climate change, the energy matrix, and vulnerability. Results show that the regions with the larger vulnerability correspond to the more energy-demanding ones. The VI for these regions is greater than 50% of the maximum possible vulnerability; meanwhile, the vulnerability of the whole country was estimated as 43%.

Surface, satellite ozone variations in Northern South America during low anthropogenic emission conditions: a machine learning approach

2020 presented the ideal conditions for studying the air quality response to several emission reductions due to the COVID-19 lockdowns. Numerous studies found that the tropospheric ozone increased even in lockdown conditions, but its reasons are not entirely understood. This research aims to better understand the ozone variations in Northern South America. Satellite and reanalysis data were used to analyze regional ozone variations. An analysis of two of the most polluted Colombian cities was performed by quantifying the changes of ozone and its precursors and by doing a machine learning decomposition to disentangle the contributions that precursors and meteorology made to form O₃. The results indicated that regional ozone increased in most areas, especially where wildfires are present. Meteorology is associated with favorable conditions to promote wildfires in Colombia and Venezuela. Regarding the local analysis, the machine learning ensemble shows that the decreased titration process associated with the NO plummeting owing to mobility reduction is the main contributor to the O₃ increase (≈50%). These tools lead to conclude that (i) the increase in O₃ produced by the reduction of the titration process that would be associated with an improvement in mobile sources technology has to be considered in the new air quality policies, (ii) a boost in international cooperation is essential to control wildfires since an event that occurs in one country can affect others and (iii) a machine learning decomposition approach coupled with sensitivity experiments can help us explain and understand the physicochemical mechanism that drives ozone formation.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11869-023-01303-6.

Design of a Forest Fire Early Alert System through a Deep 3D-CNN Structure and a WRF-CNN Bias Correction

Throughout the years, wildfires have negatively impacted ecological systems and urban areas. Hence, reinforcing territorial risk management strategies against wildfires is essential. In this study, we built an early alert system (EAS) with two different Machine Learning (ML) techniques to calculate the meteorological conditions of two Colombian areas: (i) A 3D convolutional neural net capable of learning from satellite data and (ii) a convolutional network to bias-correct the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model output. The results were used to quantify the daily Fire Weather Index and were coupled with the outcomes from a land cover analysis conducted through a Naïve-Bayes classifier to estimate the probability of wildfire occurrence. These results, combined with an assessment of global vulnerability in both locations, allow the construction of daily risk maps in both areas. On the other hand, a set of short-term preventive and corrective measures were suggested to public authorities to implement, after an early alert prediction of a possible future wildfire. Finally, Soil Management Practices are proposed to tackle the medium- and long-term causes of wildfire development, with the aim of reducing vulnerability and promoting soil protection. In conclusion, this paper creates an EAS for wildfires, based on novel ML techniques and risk maps.