COVID-19 pandemic decision support system for a population defense strategy and vaccination effectiveness

Effect of information provision on parental intention toward COVID-19 vaccination for children: a nationwide survey experiment

The reluctance of parents to vaccinate their children against COVID-19 was prevalent particularly when uncertainty over vaccination outcomes prevailed. We conducted a nationwide randomized online survey experiment to assess the effect of information provision on parental intention for COVID-19 vaccination before the government started vaccination for children in South Korea. Parents of elementary school children were provided with either no information (Control), information on vaccine profile (vaccine informed group; VI), or COVID-19 (disease informed group; DI). Among 359,110 participants, parental intention for vaccination of children was significantly higher in both VI and DI groups compared with the Control group. In terms of effect size, information on COVID-19 vaccine increased likelihood to vaccinate by 1620 per 100,000 parents and reduced vaccine hesitancy by 1340 per 100,000 parents. Consistently with the positive effect on vaccination intention, both VI and DI interventions increased participants' perceptions on vaccination benefits being higher than its risks and vaccination risks being lower than health risks of COVID-19 infection, and self-reported trust in COVID-19 information. Our results lend strong support to the claim that the provision of targeted, tailored information on COVID-19 vaccine and infection increases parental intention to vaccinate children and reduces vaccine hesitancy.

Estimation and sensitivity analysis of a COVID-19 model considering the use of face mask and vaccination

To model the COVID-19 infection and develop effective control measures, this paper proposes an SEIR-type epidemic model considering the impact of face-mask wearing and vaccination. Firstly, the effective reproduction number and the threshold conditions are obtained. Secondly, based on the data of South Korea from January 20, 2022 to March 21, 2022, the model parameters are estimated. Finally, a sensitivity analysis and the numerical study are conducted. The results show that the face-mask wearing is associated with [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] reductions in the numbers of cumulative cases and newly confirmed cases, respectively, after a period of 60 days, when the face mask wearing rate increases by [Formula: see text]. Furthermore, the vaccination rate is associated with [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] reductions in the numbers of cumulative cases and the newly confirmed cases, respectively, after the same period of 60 days when the vaccination rate is increased by [Formula: see text]. A combined measure involving face-mask wearing and vaccination may be more effective and reasonable in preventing and controlling this infection. It is also suggested that disease control departments should strongly recommended the wearing of face masks s as well as vaccination to prevent the unvaccinated people from becoming infected.

The Evaluation of Web-Based Communication Interventions to Support Decisions About COVID-19 Vaccination Among Patients With Underlying Medical Conditions: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

The timeliness of raising vaccine acceptance and uptake among the public is essential to overcoming COVID-19; however, the decision-making process among patients with underlying medical conditions is complex, leading individuals to vaccine hesitancy because of their health status. Although vaccine implementation is more effective when deployed as soon as possible, vaccine hesitancy is a significant threat to the success of vaccination programs.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a communication tool for patients with underlying medical conditions who should decide whether to receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

METHODS

This 3-arm prospective randomized controlled trial will test the effect of the developed communication intervention, which is fully automated, patient decision aid (SMART-DA), and user-centered information (SMART-DA-α). The web-based intervention was developed to help decision-making regarding COVID-19 vaccination among patients with underlying medical conditions. Over 450 patients will be enrolled on the web from a closed panel access website and randomly assigned to 1 of 3 equal groups stratified by their underlying disease, sex, age, and willingness to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. SMART-DA-α provides additional information targeted at helping patients' decision-making regarding COVID-19 vaccination. Implementation outcomes are COVID-19 vaccination intention, vaccine knowledge, decisional conflict, stress related to decision-making, and attitudes toward vaccination, and was self-assessed through questionnaires.

RESULTS

This study was funded in 2020 and approved by the Clinical Research Information Service, Republic of Korea. Data were collected from December 2021 to January 2022. This paper was initially submitted before data analysis. The results are expected to be published in the winter of 2023.

CONCLUSIONS

We believe that the outcomes of this study will provide valuable new insights into the potential of decision aids for supporting informed decision-making regarding COVID-19 vaccination and discovering the barriers to making informed decisions regarding COVID-19 vaccination, especially among patients with underlying medical conditions. This study will provide knowledge about the common needs, fears, and perceptions concerning vaccines among patients, which can help tailor information for individuals and develop policies to support them.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Korea Clinical Information Service KCT0006945; https://cris.nih.go.kr/cris/search/detailSearch.do/20965.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/42837.

COVID-19 pandemic control using restrictions and vaccination

This work deals with the impact of the vaccination in combination with a restriction parameter that represents non-pharmaceutical interventions measures applied to the compartmental SEIR model in order to control the COVID-19 epidemic. This restriction parameter is used as a control parameter, and the univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is used to forecast the time series of vaccination of all individuals of a specific country. Having in hand the time series of the population fully vaccinated (real data + forecast), the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is used to fit an analytic function that models this evolution over time. Here, it is used two time series of real data that refer to a slow vaccination obtained from India and Brazil, and two faster vaccination as observed in Israel and the United States of America. Together with vaccination, two different control approaches are presented in this paper, which enable reduces the infected people successfully: namely, the feedback and nonfeedback control methods. Numerical results predict that vaccination can reduce the peaks of infections and the duration of the pandemic, however, a better result is achieved when the vaccination is combined with any restrictions or prevention policy.