Risk stratification using a novel liver functional reserve score of combination prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio and albumin in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Low Albumin-Bilirubin Grade in TACE Combined with Ablation: A Random Forest Cox Predictive Model

Purpose

The aim of our study was to investigate the relationship between albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and recurrence in patients who underwent TACE sequential ablation. We developed and validated a nomogram to predict low levels of ALBI patients' recurrence.

Patients and Methods

A total of 880 patients undergoing TACE combined ablation at Beijing Youan Hospital from January 2014 to December 2021 were retrospectively enrolled, including 415 patients with L-ALBI (≤-2.6) and 465 patients with high levels (>-2.6) of ALBI (H-ALBI). L-ALBI patients were randomized in a 7:3 ratio into the training cohort (N=289) and validation cohort (N=126). Multivariate Cox regression followed by random survival forest was carried out to identify independent risk factors for prediction nomogram construction. An examination of nomogram accuracy was performed using the C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves. According to the nomogram, the patients were divided into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were applied to compare the difference in recurrence-free survival (RFS) among the three groups.

Results

The median RFS in L-ALBI patients was significantly longer than the H-ALBI patients (40.8m vs 20.1m, HR:1.71, 95% CI:1.44-2.04, P<0.0001). The nomogram was composed of five variables, such as age, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, globulin, gamma-glutamyl transferase to lymphocyte ratio (GLR), and international normalized ratio (INR). The C-index (0.722 and 0.731) and 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs (0.725, 0.803, 0.870, and 0.764, 0.816, 0.798) of the training and validation cohorts proved the good predictive performance of the nomogram. Calibration curves and DCA curves demonstrated good consistency and good clinical utility. There were significant differences in RFS between the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups (P<0.0001).

Conclusion

L-ALBI Patients who underwent TACE combined ablation had better recurrence-free survival than patients with H-ALBI. The nomogram developed and validated in our study had good predictive ability in recurrence for L-ALBI patients.

Proper position of single and large (≥5 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma in Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer classification

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the proper position of single large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system. The data were collected from the nationwide multicentre database of the Korean Liver Cancer Association. Patients with single large (≥5 cm) HCC were separated from BCLC stage A patients and designated as Group X. The remaining BCLC stage A and stage B patients were classified as Group A and Group B, respectively. The survival outcomes of propensity score-matched groups were compared. Among the 3965 randomly selected patients, the number of patients in Group X, Group A, and Group B was 414, 2787, and 760, respectively. TriMatch analysis allowed us to obtain 116 well-balanced triplets. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates in Group X were worse than in Group A (91%, 71%, and 48% vs 90%, 78%, and 64%, respectively; P < .000). However, the rates were not different compared with those in Group B (91%, 71%, and 48% vs 90%, 69%, and 48%, respectively; P < .09). In multivariate analysis, Group X, Group B, age over 60 years, prothrombin time-international normalized ratio, and creatinine level were independent predictors of worse overall survival. Our findings suggest that Group X should be relocated to BCLC stage B rather than BCLC stage A.

Predictive Value of the Prothrombin Time-International Normalized Ratio to Albumin Ratio in the Prognosis of Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Background

Acute-on-chronic liver failure is a common clinical syndrome with high short-term mortality, and early assessment of its mortality risk is crucial, but the search for valid and accurate prognostic biomarkers is a challenging endeavor. The purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive value of the prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio (PTAR) for mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF).

Patients and methods

A total of 354 patients with HBV-ACLF were included in the retrospective study. Patients were divided into survival and non-survival groups based on 90-day follow-up. Cox regression analysis was used to explore the relationship between PTAR and 90-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the effectiveness of PTAR in predicting mortality.

Results

PTAR was significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors. The results of multivariate analysis showed that PTAR was a valid independent predictor of mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF. Its predictive ability for mortality was similar to that of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, the end-stage liver disease model (MELD) score, and the MELD-sodium score.

Conclusion

PTAR may be a simple and effective tool for predicting the prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF.

Prognosis of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Transarterial Chemoembolization(MC-hccAI 001): Development and Validation of the ALFP Score

Background

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the recommended first-line treatment for intermediate-stage Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. However, predicting the survival of HCC patients receiving TACE remains challenging.

Methods

In this retrospective study, we analyzed a total of 1805 HCC patients who received TACE. The patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 1264) and a validation set (n = 541). We examined various prognostic factors within the training set and developed a simple ALFP (ALBI grade, AFP, and Prothrombin time) score, which was subsequently validated using the independent validation set.

Results

Our multivariate analysis revealed that baseline ALBI grade 2 or 3, AFP ≥ 100 ng/mL, and PT > 13.1 s were independent unfavorable prognostic factors for HCC patients receiving TACE (p < 0.05). Based on these findings, we constructed the ALFP score, which assigns 1 point each for ALBI grade 2 or 3, AFP ≥ 100 ng/mL, and PT > 13.1 s. The score has a range of 0 to 3, and higher scores are associated with poorer outcomes. The median overall survival (OS) varied significantly among different ALFP score groups, both in the training set and the validation set (p < 0.001). We further examined the ALFP score in subgroups based on tumor diameter and the number of intrahepatic lesions. In each subgroup, higher ALFP scores were consistently associated with lower OS (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

Our study confirms the prognostic value of the ALFP score in predicting the survival of HCC patients undergoing TACE. The score incorporates easily obtainable baseline parameters and provides a simple and practical tool for risk stratification and treatment decision-making in HCC patients.

Role of CA 19.9 and CEA in predicting diagnosis in hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is responsible for 90% of cases of primary liver cancer and is also responsible for the fourth most common cause of cancer death worldwide. To improve the current scenario for the early diagnosis and management of HCC patients, a better understanding of HCC is required. Hence, serum tumor biomarkers such as CA 19-9 (cancer antigen), CEA (carcinoembryonic antigen), and AFP (alpha-fetoprotein) show promising future, when it comes to early diagnosis of primary liver cancer (PHC), liver cirrhosis, and metastasis.

Methods

It was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis of patients diagnosed with primary hepatocellular carcinoma, data were collected from the hospital database and included a total of 245 patients of HCC attending the out-patient department and some were admitted for treatment at our institution. Out of 245 patients, 68 patients were selected for the study. We have collected information related to the patient's demographic profile, pathological diagnosis, biochemical profile, and even radiological diagnosis. The sensitivity and specificity of CA 19-9 and CEA were also done.

Results

Adenocarcinoma is the most common type of liver cancer followed by HCC. We have shown a weak correlation between tumor markers CA 19-9 and CEA for the diagnosis of liver carcinoma. Further our study shows that the sensitivity of tumor marker CA 19-9 for the diagnosis of liver carcinoma is 64.28% and that of CEA is 83.67%.

Conclusion

The search for a novel biomarker of early liver carcinoma requires further research.

Competing Interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Nomograms for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Based on PIVKA-II and Serum Biomarkers

BACKGROUND

The aim of the present study was to develop an improved diagnostic and prognostic model for HBV-associated HCC by combining AFP with PIVKA-II and other potential serum/plasma protein biomarkers.

METHODS

A total of 578 patients, including 352 patients with HBV-related HCC, 102 patients with HBV-associated liver cirrhosis (LC), 124 patients with chronic HBV, and 127 healthy subjects (HS), were enrolled in the study. The serum levels of AFP, PIVKA-II, and other laboratory parameters were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent diagnostic and prognostic factors, respectively. The diagnostic efficacy of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operator curve (ROC) analysis and the prognostic performance was measured by Harrell's concordance index (C-index).

RESULTS

AFP and PIVKA-II levels were significantly increased in HBV-related HCC, compared with those in HBV-associated LC and chronic HBV participants (p < 0.05 and p < 0.001, respectively). The diagnostic nomogram, which included age, gender, AFP, PIVKA-II, prothrombin time (PT), and total protein (TP), discriminated patients with HBV-HCC from those with HBV-LC or chronic HBV with an AUC of 0.970. In addition, based on the univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis, PIVKA-II, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, and albumin were found to be significantly associated with the prognosis of HBV-related HCC and were incorporated into a nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram for predicting 3-year survival in the training and validation groups was 0.75 and 0.78, respectively. The calibration curves for the probability of 3-year OS showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the actual observation in the training and the validation groups. Furthermore, the nomogram had a higher C-index (0.74) than that of the Child-Pugh grade (0.62), the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score (0.64), and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (0.56) in all follow-up cases.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that the nomograms based on AFP, PIVKA-II, and potential serum protein biomarkers showed a better performance in the diagnosis and prognosis of HCC, which may help to guide therapeutic strategies and assess the prognosis of HCC.

Prognostic Significance of Serum Albumin Level and Albumin-Based Mono- and Combination Biomarkers in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the predominant form of primary liver cancer. Although many surgical and nonsurgical therapeutic options have been established for treating HCC, the overall prognosis for HCC patients receiving different treatment modalities remains inadequate, which causes HCC to remain among the most life-threatening human cancers worldwide. Therefore, it is vitally important and urgently needed to develop valuable and independent prognostic biomarkers for the early prediction of poor prognosis in HCC patients, allowing more time for more timely and appropriate treatment to improve the survival of patients. As the most abundant protein in plasma, human serum albumin (ALB) is predominantly expressed by the liver and exhibits a wide variety of essential biological functions. It has been well recognized that serum ALB level is a significant independent biomarker for a broad spectrum of human diseases including cancer. Moreover, ALB has been commonly used as a potent biomaterial and therapeutic agent in clinical settings for the treatment of various human diseases. This review provides a comprehensive summary of the evidence from the up-to-date published literature to underscore the prognostic significance of serum ALB level and various ALB-based mono- and combination biomarkers in the prediction of the prognosis of HCC patients after treatment with different surgical, locoregional, and systemic therapies.

Clinical value of predictive models based on liver stiffness measurement in predicting liver reserve function of compensated chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND

Assessment of liver reserve function (LRF) is essential for predicting the prognosis of patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) and determines the extent of liver resection in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

AIM

To establish noninvasive models for LRF assessment based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and to evaluate their clinical performance.

METHODS

A total of 360 patients with compensated CLD were retrospectively analyzed as the training cohort. The new predictive models were established through logistic regression analysis and were validated internally in a prospective cohort (132 patients).

RESULTS

Our study defined indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min (ICGR15) ≥ 10% as mildly impaired LRF and ICGR15 ≥ 20% as severely impaired LRF. We constructed predictive models of LRF, named the mLPaM and sLPaM, which involved only LSM, prothrombin time international normalized ratio to albumin ratio (PTAR), age and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD). The area under the curve of the mLPaM model (0.855, 0.872, respectively) and sLPaM model (0.869, 0.876, respectively) were higher than that of the methods for MELD, albumin-bilirubin grade and PTAR in the two cohorts, and their sensitivity and negative predictive value were the highest among these methods in the training cohort. In addition, the new models showed good sensitivity and accuracy for the diagnosis of LRF impairment in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

The new models had a good predictive performance for LRF and could replace the indocyanine green (ICG) clearance test, especially in patients who are unable to undergo ICG testing.

International Normalized Ratio-to-Albumin Ratio as a Novel Marker of Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding Severity

Introduction

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a potentially life-threatening gastrointestinal emergency, and effective management depends on early risk stratification. The Glasgow–Blatchford and Rockall scores are commonly used prognostic measures for UGIB, although these scoring systems are relatively difficult to apply in early emergency settings. AIMS65 with five items, albumin, international normalized ratio, mental status, systolic blood pressure, and age (>65 years), showed efficacy in predicting long-term hospitalization and mortality. This study aimed to investigate the usefulness of the prothrombin time-international normalized ratio-to-albumin ratio (PTAR) in the emergency room for early UGIB risk stratification.

Methods

We retrospectively examined patients who visited a tertiary academic hospital's emergency department (ED) with UGIB as the chief presentation between January 2019 and December 2020. The cutoff values and diagnostic accuracies of the PTAR, Glasgow–Blatchford score, AIMS65 score, pre-endoscopy, and complete Rockall score were analyzed, and the performance of the PTAR was compared with that of other risk stratification methods. In total, 519 patients were enrolled: 163 patients were admitted in the intensive care unit (ICU) and 35 died during admission. Multiple logistic regression analyses confirmed the association of the PTAR with ICU admission and mortality. The adjusted odd ratio (aOR) of the PTAR for ICU admission care was 8.376 (2.722–25.774), and the aOR of the PTAR for mortality was 27.846 (8.701–89.116).

Conclusions

The PTAR measured in the ED is an independent factor related to ICU admission and mortality in patients with UGIB. Using ED blood laboratory results, which are reported relatively quickly and are easy to acquire and calculate, the PTAR can be used as a risk stratification marker in the early emergency setting.

Prothrombin time (PT) and CEA as prognostic predictive biomarkers for postoperative recurrence after curative resection in patients with stage I-III colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

There are no ideal biomarkers including the TNM stage that can accurately predict the recurrence of colorectal cancer (CRC) and the benefit of chemotherapy for stage II patients. Here, 451 CRC patients were divided into three groups according to preoperative levels of prothrombin time (PT) and CEA to analyze the value of these indexes in predicting postoperative recurrence in different TNM stages. Preoperatively elevated levels of PT and CEA were significantly associated with a high 5-year cumulative recurrence rate (CRR) and short recurrence-free survival (RFS). According to PT and CEA levels, the 5-year CRR and RFS differed significantly among the High-risk (PT ≥ 12.65 s and CEA ≥ 10.175 ng/ml), Middle-risk (PT ≥ 12.65 s or CEA ≥ 10.175 ng/ml), and Low-risk (PT < 12.65 s and CEA < 10.175 ng/ml) groups (p < 0.001). In the same TNM stage, the 5-year CRR of the High-risk group was significantly higher and the RFS was markedly shorter than those in the Low-risk and even those in stage III (p < 0.001). In the subgroup of early stage (stage I and II), the 5-year CRR of the High-risk group was significantly higher and the RFS was significantly shorter than those in stage IIIA and IIIB (p < 0.001), which is similar to IIIC. In conclusion, preoperatively elevated levels of serum PT and CEA were reliable predictors of postoperative high-risk recurrence in CRC and combined with TNM stage precisely identify postoperative recurrence CRC patients in stage I-III and the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with stage II CRC.

Prognostic value of albumin-related ratios in HBV-associated decompensated cirrhosis

Background

Identification of effective and accurate prognostic biomarkers for hepatitis B virus‐associated decompensated cirrhosis (HBV‐DeCi) is challenging. This study was designed to determine and compare the prognostic value of albumin‐related ratios (blood urea nitrogen‐to‐albumin ratio [BAR], C‐reactive protein‐to‐albumin ratio [CAR], prothrombin time‐international normalized ratio‐to‐albumin ratio [PTAR], neutrophil count‐to‐albumin ratio [NAR], and D‐dimer‐to‐albumin ratio [DAR]) in HBV‐DeCi patients.

Methods

We retrospectively recruited 161 HBV‐DeCi patients. Receiver operating characteristic curve, DeLong test, and Cox regression analyses were used to estimate and compare the predictive value of these five albumin‐related ratios and Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score.

Results

A total of 29 (18.0%) patients had died 30 days after admission. The prognostic roles of CAR, DAR, PTAR, NAR, and BAR in HBV‐DeCi were different. CAR, PTAR, NAR, and BAR were significantly higher in non‐survivors compared with survivors. However, DAR did not differ between the two groups. The predictive power of BAR was superior to that of the other four albumin‐related biomarkers and similar to that of MELD score. On multivariate analysis, BAR and MELD score were identified as independent prognostic factors, and the combination of BAR and MELD score may improve the prognostic accuracy in HBV‐DeCi.

Conclusion

The present findings suggest that BAR may be a simple and useful prognostic tool to predict mortality in HBV‐DeCi patients.

Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) and Monocyte to Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR)-Based Nomogram Model to Predict Tumor Recurrence of AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose

In this study, we aimed to develop a novel liver function and inflammatory markers-based nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) for AFP-negative (<20 ng/mL) HCC patients after curative resection.

Patients and Methods

A total of 166 pathologically confirmed AFP-negative HCC patients were included at the Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital. A LASSO regression analysis was used for data dimensionality reduction and element selection. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors relevant to RFS. Finally, clinical nomogram prediction model for RFS of HCC was established. Nomogram performance was assessed via internal validation and calibration curve statistics. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) curve were used to validate the performance and clinical utility of the nomogram.

Results

Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that ALBI grade (hazard ratio, [HR] = 2.624, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.391-4.949, P = 0.003), INR (HR = 2.605, 95% CI: 1.061-6.396, P = 0.037), MLR (HR = 1.769, 95% CI: 1.073-2.915, P = 0.025) and MVI (HR = 4.726, 95% CI: 2.365-9.444, P < 0.001) were independent prognostic factors of RFS. Nomogram with independent factors was established and achieved a better concordance index of 0.753 (95% CI: 0.672-0.834) for predicting RFS. The ROC found that the area under curve (AUC) was consistent with the C-index and the sensitivity was 85.4%. The risk score calculated by nomogram could divide AFP-negative HCC patients into high-, moderate- and low-risk groups (P < 0.05). DCA analysis revealed that the nomogram could augment net benefits and exhibited a wider range of threshold probabilities by the risk stratification than the AJCC T and BCLC stage in the prediction of AFP-negative HCC recurrence.

Conclusion

The ALBI grade- and MLR-based nomogram prognostic model for RFS showed high predictive accuracy in AFP-negative HCC patients after surgical resection.

Prognostic Value of International Normalized Ratio-to-Albumin Ratio and Ferritin Level in Chronic Liver Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the sixth among the most common cancers and the fourth among cancer-related causes of death in the world. In the evaluation of liver function in HCC patients, parameters such as albumin-bilirubin, prothrombin time-international normalized ratio (PT-INR) to albumin ratio (PTAR) are used among new methods other than Child-Pugh and MELD scores. Biomarkers are widely used in clinical practice in cases such as diagnosing various diseases, evaluating treatment response and predicting prognosis. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of serum ferritin and INR/albumin ratio in patients with chronic liver disease who develop HCC.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 534 patients who were followed up with the diagnosis of HCC between 2009 and 2020. The patients with HCC etiology were evaluated in 3 groups (chronic hepatitis B group, chronic hepatitis C group, and other group). When comparing serum ferritin level and prothromin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio with Child Pugh score (CTP) in chronic liver patients with HCC, liver functional reserve and its role in predicting prognosis were investigated.

RESULTS

The serum ferritin level was 226 ± 334 in the CTP A group, 239 ± 302 in the CTP B group, and 678 ± 966 in the CTP C group, and the p value was 0.001. The PTAR CTP group was 0.35 ± 0.10, the CTP B group was 0.50 ± 0.26, the CTP C group was 1.18 ± 6.01, and the p value was 0.001. Multivariant analysis results showed that ferritin hazard ratio is 1.00, 95% CI 0.99-1.00, and p value was 0.09, and PTAR hazard ratio is 1.38, 95% CI 2.37-8.00, and p value was 0.49. The etiological distribution of HCC was determined as HBV (61.6%), HCV (19.9%), and other etiologies (18.5%). Significant values were determined for age, gender, glucose, GGT, T. cholesterol, and tumor diameter parameters according to etiological distribution.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum ferritin level and PTAR score increased in proportion to the severity of liver disease and were associated with poor prognosis. We think that high serum ferritin and PTAR score is a prognostic biomarker in predicting the synthesis function of the liver and mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

Effectiveness of Anatomical Resection for Small Hepatocellular Carcinoma: a Propensity Score-Matched Analysis of a Multi-institutional Database

BACKGROUND

The superiority of outcomes associated with anatomical resection (AR) versus those associated with non-anatomical resection (NAR) remains controversial in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the significance of AR on therapeutic outcomes of patients with small HCCs (≤ 5 cm), using propensity score-matched (PSM) analysis.

METHODS

A total of 195 patients who had undergone elective hepatic resection for small HCCs (≤ 5 cm) were included in this study. We conducted PSM analysis for baseline characteristics (age, sex, hepatitis virus status, retention rate of indocyanine green at 15 min, and Child-Pugh grade), preoperative serum α-fetoprotein, and tumor characteristics (tumor size, tumor number, portal vein invasion, and surgical margin status) to eliminate potential selection bias. The prognostic significance of AR on the disease-free and overall survival was analyzed in patients selected by PSM analysis.

RESULTS

Applying PSM analysis, the patients were divided into PSM-AR (N = 66) and PSM-NAR (N = 66) groups. Disease-free survival was significantly better in the PSM-AR group than that of the PSM-NAR group (P = 0.018), while there was no significant difference in the overall survival between the PSM-AR and PSM-NAR groups (P = 0.292). The univariate HRs of the PSM-AR group were 0.55 (95% CI, 0.33-0.90) for disease-free survival and 0.61 (95% CI, 0.24-1.53) for overall survival, respectively. Remnant liver recurrence was significantly lower in the AR group (P = 0.014).

CONCLUSIONS

AR may improve the disease-free survival in HCC patients with tumors of ≤5 cm diameter.

A Novel Nomogram Based on Hepatic and Coagulation Function for Evaluating Outcomes of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma After Curative Hepatectomy: A Multi-Center Study of 653 Patients

Background and Aims

Hepatic and coagulation function are routine laboratory tests prior to curative hepatectomy. The prognostic value of gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) to platelet ratio (GPR) and international normalized ratio (INR) in surgically treated patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) remains unclear.

Methods

ICC patients received curative hepatectomy in two west China centers were included. Time-dependent ROC curves were conducted to compare established indexes with prognostic value for ICC. GPR-INR score was introduced and evaluated using the Time-dependent AUC curve and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. A novel nomogram based on the GPR-INR score was proposed; Harrell’s C-index, calibration curve and decision curve analysis were used to assess this nomogram.

Results

A total of 653 patients were included. The areas under ROC curves of GPR and INR in OS and RFS were superior to other indexes. Patients with a high GPR-INR score (1,2) presented significantly decreased overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS); GPR-INR sore, along with several clinicopathological indexes were selected into the nomogram, the calibration curve for OS probability showed good coincidence between the nomogram and the actual surveillance. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.708 (derivation set) and 0.746 (validation set), which was more representative than the C-indexes of the GPR-INR score (0.597, 0.678). In decision curve analysis, the net benefits of the nomogram in derivation and validation set were higher than Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging (BCLC) classification and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM 8^th staging system.

Conclusions

The proposed nomogram generated superior discriminative ability to established staging systems; it is profitable to applicate this nomogram in clinical practice.

International Normalized Ratio to Albumin Ratio (PTAR): An Objective Risk Stratification Tool in Patients with Sepsis

Background

Sepsis is a life-threatening multiple-organ dysfunction caused by dysregulation of host response to severe infection. Liver failure is a validated independent predictor of mortality. Accurate and rapid assessment of liver function is critical in patients with sepsis. However, an appropriate scoring system for liver function requires further development.

Objective

Our study aimed to validate the usefulness of the prothrombin time-international normalized ratio (PT-INR) to albumin ratio (PTAR) in predicting the mortality of patients with sepsis.

Methods

Data on a total of 4536 patients, obtained from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care III database, were included in our retrospective study. Logistic regression, Poisson regression with robust variance estimate analysis, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to explore the relationship between PTAR and mortality. Area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to estimate the performance of PTAR in predicting the prognosis in septic patient.

Results

Multivariable Poisson regression showed that the relative risk (RR) of PTAR to ICU mortality, hospital mortality, and 28-day and 90-day mortality in septic patients was 1.26 (95% CI: 1.15-1.37), 1.24 (95% CI: 1.15-1.34), 1.23 (95% CI: 1.15-1.31), and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.13-1.28), respectively. Multivariable Cox regression showed that the hazard ratio (HR) of PTAR to 28-day mortality and 90-day mortality was 1.56 (95% CI: 1.44-1.70), and 1.55 (95% CI: 1.43-1.68), respectively. PTAR showed a moderate discrimination capacity in predicting hospital mortality (AUC: 0.655, 95% CI: 0.636-0.675) and 90-day mortality (AUC: 0.650, 95% CI: 0.633-0.667).

Conclusion

The PTAR scoring system is a convenient tool for predicting the prognosis of patients with sepsis.

Usefulness of International Normalized Ratio to Albumin Ratio for Evaluation of Mortality in Hepatitis B Virus-Associated Decompensated Cirrhosis

Background

We sought to determine the prognostic value of prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio (PTAR) in patients with hepatitis B virus-associated decompensated cirrhosis (HBV-DeCi).

Methods

The study enrolled 166 HBV-DeCi patients. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify predictors associated with mortality.

Results

Among the 166 HBV-DeCi patients, 27 (16.3%) had died by 30 days after admission. PTAR was markedly increased in nonsurvivors compared with survivors, and had a significant positive correlation with disease severity. Multivariate analysis identified PTAR as an effective independent predictor for mortality in HBV-DeCi patients.

Conclusions

High PTAR was associated with poor outcomes and can act as a novel prognostic predictor for mortality in HBV-DeCi patients.

Preoperative controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score predicts long-term outcomes in patients with non-B non-C hepatocellular carcinoma after curative hepatic resection

PURPOSE

The controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score has been reported to predict outcomes in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the prognostic significance of the CONUT score in patients with non-B non-C (NBNC) HCC remains to be established.

METHODS

The study comprised 246 patients who had undergone elective hepatic resection for HCC between April 2003 and October 2017. We retrospectively investigated the relation between preoperative CONUT score as well as clinicopathological characteristics and disease-free survival (DFS) as well as overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

In univariate analyses, CONUT score was associated with DFS and OS in patients with NBNC-HCC (p ≤ 0.01), while there was no significant association of CONUT score with DFS and OS in patients with HBV- and HCV-related HCC (p ≥ 0.1). Of the 111 patients with NBNC-HCC, 97 (87.4%) had CONUT score ≤ 3 (low CONUT score) and the other 14 (12.6%) had CONUT score ≥ 4 (high CONUT score). In the patients with NBNC-HCC, multivariate analysis identified age ≥ 65 years (p = 0.03), multiple tumors (p < 0.01), and high CONUT score (p = 0.03) as the independent and significant predictors of DFS, while multiple tumors (p = 0.01), microvascular invasion (p < 0.01), and high CONUT score (p = 0.01) were the independent and significant predictors of OS.

CONCLUSIONS

The CONUT score seems to be a reliable and independent predictor of both DFS and OS after hepatic resection for NBNC-HCC.

Prediction of Poor Outcomes in Patients with Colorectal Cancer: Elevated Preoperative Prothrombin Time (PT) and Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time (APTT)

Background and Objective

Tools for the non-invasive assessment of colorectal cancer (CRC) prognosis have profound significance. Although plasma coagulation tests have been investigated in a variety of tumours, the prognostic value of the prothrombin time (PT) and activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) in CRC has not been discussed. Our study objective was to explore the prognostic significance of preoperative PT and APTT in CRC patients.

Patients and Methods

A retrospective analysis of preoperative coagulation indexes including PT, PTA, INR, APTT, FIB, TT, PLT, NLR and PLR in 250 patients with CRC was performed. Kaplan–Meier and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to demonstrate the prognostic value of these preoperative coagulation indexes.

Results

The overall survival (OS, p<0.05) and disease-free survival (DFS, p<0.05) of CRC patients with lower PT and APTT levels were significantly prolonged. Based on univariate analysis, PT levels (p<0.001, p<0.001), PTA levels (p=0.001, p=0.001), APTT levels (p=0.001, p<0.001), INR levels (p<0.001, p<0.001), fibrinogen levels (p=0.032, p=0.036), tumour status (p=0.005, p=0.003), nodal status (p<0.001, p<0.001), metastasis status (p<0.001, p<0.001) and TNM stages (p<0.001, p<0.001) were remarkably associated with DFS and OS. Multivariate Cox regression analysis suggested that the levels of PT (HR: 2.699, p=0.006) and APTT (HR: 1.942, p=0.015), metastasis status (HR: 2.091, p= 0.015) and TNM stage (HR: 7.086, p=0.006) were independent predictors of survival in CRC. In the whole cohort, the enrolled patients were then divided into three groups according to their PT and APTT levels. The OS and DFS differed notably among the low-risk (PT<11.85 sec and APTT<25.85 sec), medium-risk (PT≥11.85 sec or APTT≥25.85 sec), and high-risk (PT≥11.85 sec and APTT≥25.85 sec) groups.

Conclusion

Elevated levels of preoperative PT and APTT were predictors of poor outcomes in CRC patients. Moreover, the combination of preoperative PT and APTT can be a new prognostic stratification approach for more precise clinical staging of CRC.

Yttrium-90 Radioembolization for BCLC Stage C Hepatocellular Carcinoma Comparing Child-Pugh A Versus B7 Patients: Are the Outcomes Equivalent?

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate yttrium-90 (Y90) radioembolization outcomes across Child-Pugh scores in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From April 2005 to December 2018, 106 consecutive patients with BCLC Stage C HCC who underwent Y90 radioembolization were retrospectively analyzed. Exclusion criteria included additional malignancy (n = 7), death unrelated to liver disease (n = 2), metastases (n = 2), or lack of follow-up data (n = 4). Ninety-one patients were analyzed. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared between groups with the log-rank test. Cox regression modeling was used to evaluate the prognostic factors for survival.

RESULTS

Mean age was 63 years and 85.7% were male. HCV infection was the most common etiology of liver disease (58.2%). Sixty-four (70.3%) patients were Child-Pugh A, 19 (20.9%) patients were B7, and eight (8.8%) patients were B8-9. Median OS after radioembolization was 20.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 13.0-27.4], 6.0 (95% CI 4.4-7.6), and 5.5 (95% CI 2.5-8.5) months for Child-Pugh A, B7, and B8/9 groups, respectively (P < 0.001 for B7 vs. A; P = 0.537 for B7 vs. B8/9). The multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) score (P < 0.001), Child-Pugh class (P = 0.005), tumor morphology pattern (P = 0.012), and Y90 delivery location (P = 0.020) were significant independent predictors of overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Outcomes from Y90 for BCLC C HCC for Child-Pugh B7 patients were equivalent to B8/9 patients and significantly worse compared to Child-Pugh A patients. Although further research is warranted, these results suggest continued cautious patient selection for radioembolization in advanced HCC.

"Logic-Based Medicine" Is More Feasible than "Evidence-Based Medicine" in the Local Treatment for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

The optimal type of surgery (e.g., anatomic or non-anatomic resection) or radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still under debate despite numerous comparative studies based on overall survival. This debate continues not only because these endpoints are influenced by non-surgical factors, such as liver function, but because the definition of non-anatomic resection for HCC has remained unclear. The optimal surgery could be logically determined based on the mechanism of local intrahepatic metastasis, that is, the drainage of tumour blood flow (TBF), because HCC spreads locally through tumour blood flowing to the peri-tumourous liver parenchyma. Since TBF is clearly demonstrated by CT scan under hepatic arteriography, the surgical margin can be determined individually based on the drainage of TBF without deteriorating local curability. Controversy regarding RFA and surgery does not result from the curability of treatment itself but from the lack of scientific evidence on safety margins. Based on proper concepts and self-evident truths, an algorithm of loco-regional treatment for HCC is proposed.

Prognostic value of international normalized ratio to albumin ratio among critically ill patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Critically ill patients with cirrhosis are at an increased risk of mortality. Our study aimed to externally validate the ability of the prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio (PTAR), an objective and simple scoring system, to predict 90-day mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 865 patients were entered into the study, and all the participants were followed up for at least 90 days. Clinical parameters on the first day of intensive care unit admission were included to compare survivors with nonsurvivors.

RESULTS

After multivariable adjustment, the association between the risk of 90-day mortality and PTAR remained statistically significant with a hazard ratio of 2.71 (95% confidence interval: 1.99-3.68). The PTAR score showed good discrimination ability for predicting 90-day mortality with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.75). To improve its feasibility, we regrouped the PTAR scores into three levels of risk (low risk: <0.55, intermediate risk: 0.55-1.00, and high risk: ≥1.00); the 90-day mortality rates were 20.1% (74/368), 41.7% (168/403), and 73.4% (69/94), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The PTAR score system is a convenient and practical tool for predicting the prognosis of critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

Comparison of 2 curative treatment options for very early hepatocellular carcinoma: Efficacy, recurrence pattern, and retreatment

Curative treatments for very early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), defined as single HCC with a maximum diameter of <2 cm in patients with well-preserved liver function, consist of surgical resection or radiofrequency ablation (RFA). In this retrospective study, we compared the efficacy of both treatments in 154 patients with very early-stage HCCs who underwent resection or RFA as initial therapy and were followed up for a median of 56.8 months. Propensity score matching analysis was also conducted. Overall survival was comparable between treatment groups (median survival time of 143 vs 97 months for resection and RFA, respectively; P = .132). Resection group; however, demonstrated a significantly lower recurrence rate after initial therapy than RFA group (42.3% vs 65.7%; P = .006) with a longer median recurrence-free survival time (66.7 vs 33.8 months; P = .002), which was confirmed even after matching (P = .04). In contrast, the recurrence pattern in advanced-stage (9.6% vs 1.0%; P = .01) or incurable recurrences (19% vs 13%; P = .04) was more frequent following resection than RFA. Recurrent lesions were comparatively more curable in RFA group than in resection group (80% vs 54.5%; P = .02). The recurrence of HCC was independently associated with lower serum albumin level (P = .027), the presence of comorbid diabetes mellitus (P = .010), and RFA (P = .034). In conclusion, in patients with very early-stage HCC, surgical resection has achieved significantly better recurrence-free survival than RFA. A closer follow-up is required after resection.