Classification before regression for improving the accuracy of glucose quantification using absorption spectroscopy

Data-driven blood glucose level prediction in type 1 diabetes: a comprehensive comparative analysis

Accurate prediction of blood glucose level (BGL) has proven to be an effective way to help in type 1 diabetes management. The choice of input, along with the fundamental choice of model structure, is an existing challenge in BGL prediction. Investigating the performance of different data-driven time series forecasting approaches with different inputs for BGL prediction is beneficial in advancing BGL prediction performance. Limited work has been made in this regard, which has resulted in different conclusions. This paper performs a comprehensive investigation of different data-driven time series forecasting approaches using different inputs. To do so, BGL prediction is comparatively investigated from two perspectives; the model's approach and the model's input. First, we compare the performance of BGL prediction using different data-driven time series forecasting approaches, including classical time series forecasting, traditional machine learning, and deep neural networks. Secondly, for each prediction approach, univariate input, using BGL data only, is compared to a multivariate input, using data on carbohydrate intake, injected bolus insulin, and physical activity in addition to BGL data. The investigation is performed on two publicly available Ohio datasets. Regression-based and clinical-based metrics along with statistical analyses are performed for evaluation and comparison purposes. The outcomes show that the traditional machine learning model is the fastest model to train and has the best BGL prediction performance especially when using multivariate input. Also, results show that simply adding extra variables does not necessarily improve BGL prediction performance significantly, and data fusion approaches may be required to effectively leverage other variables' information.

In Vitro Glucose Measurement from NIR and MIR Spectroscopy: Comprehensive Benchmark of Machine Learning and Filtering Chemometrics

The quantitative analysis of glucose using spectroscopy is a topic of great significance and interest in science and industry. One conundrum in this area is deploying appropriate preprocessing and regression tools. To contribute to addressing this challenge, in this study, we conducted a comprehensive and novel comparative analysis of various machine learning and preprocessing filtering techniques applied to near-infrared, mid-infrared, and a combination of near-infrared and mid-infrared spectroscopy for glucose assay. Our objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of these techniques in accurately predicting glucose levels and to determine which approach was most optimal. Our investigation involved the acquisition of spectral data from samples of glucose solutions using the three aforementioned spectroscopy techniques. The data was subjected to several preprocessing filtering methods, including convolutional moving average, Savitzky-Golay, multiplicative scatter correction, and normalisation. We then applied representative machine learning algorithms from three categories: linear modelling, traditional nonlinear modelling, and artificial neural networks. The evaluation results revealed that linear models exhibited higher predictive accuracy than nonlinear models, whereas artificial neural network models demonstrated comparable performance. Additionally, the comparative analysis of various filtering methods demonstrated that the convolutional moving average and Savitzky-Golay filters yielded the most precise outcomes overall. In conclusion, our study provides valuable insights into the efficacy of different machine learning techniques for glucose measurement and highlights the importance of applying appropriate filtering methods in enhancing predictive accuracy. These findings have important implications for the development of new and improved glucose quantification technologies.

Blood Glucose Level Time Series Forecasting: Nested Deep Ensemble Learning Lag Fusion

Blood glucose level prediction is a critical aspect of diabetes management. It enables individuals to make informed decisions about their insulin dosing, diet, and physical activity. This, in turn, improves their quality of life and reduces the risk of chronic and acute complications. One conundrum in developing time-series forecasting models for blood glucose level prediction is to determine an appropriate length for look-back windows. On the one hand, studying short histories foists the risk of information incompletion. On the other hand, analysing long histories might induce information redundancy due to the data shift phenomenon. Additionally, optimal lag lengths are inconsistent across individuals because of the domain shift occurrence. Therefore, in bespoke analysis, either optimal lag values should be found for each individual separately or a globally suboptimal lag value should be used for all. The former approach degenerates the analysis's congruency and imposes extra perplexity. With the latter, the fine-tunned lag is not necessarily the optimum option for all individuals. To cope with this challenge, this work suggests an interconnected lag fusion framework based on nested meta-learning analysis that improves the accuracy and precision of predictions for personalised blood glucose level forecasting. The proposed framework is leveraged to generate blood glucose prediction models for patients with type 1 diabetes by scrutinising two well-established publicly available Ohio type 1 diabetes datasets. The models developed undergo vigorous evaluation and statistical analysis from mathematical and clinical perspectives. The results achieved underpin the efficacy of the proposed method in blood glucose level time-series prediction analysis.