Long-term risk of venous thrombosis after stopping anticoagulants for a first unprovoked event: A multi-national cohort

Emerging Medical Therapies for the Treatment of Obesity in Women with Cardiovascular Diseases

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In this review, the impact of obesity on cardiovascular disease in women and emerging anti-obesity pharmacologic treatments are discussed.

RECENT FINDINGS

Robust evidence demonstrates the burden of obesity across the lifespan in women and links obesity to a diverse set of cardiovascular diseases. Female-specific risk factors including sex hormones and pregnancy factors intersect with obesity and cardiovascular risk. Sustained weight loss has potential for cardiovascular benefits. Recent trials demonstrate cardiovascular benefits of emerging agents with weight loss effects including GLP-1 RA and SGLT2 inhibitors in women. Treatment and prevention strategies for cardiovascular disease in obese women should include integration of weight management strategies including the targeted use of emerging pharmacologic therapies.

The risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer-associated thrombosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The optimal duration of anticoagulation in patients with active cancer and venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unknown. Current clinical guidelines advocate anticoagulant therapy for 3-6 months and to continue anticoagulant therapy for as long as the cancer is active. However, an adequate systematic review on the rate of recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy has not been performed.

Methods

For this systemic review and meta-analysis, we searched Embase.com, Medline (Ovid), Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar, from database inception to February 16, 2023, for studies on anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer and the recurrence of venous thromboembolism after discontinuation of this therapy. We included randomised controlled trials and cohort studies published in English that reported on patients who met the following: cancer and a first VTE, completed at least 3 months of anticoagulant therapy, were followed after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy, and with symptomatic recurrent VTE as an outcome during follow-up. Study-level data were requested from study authors. The primary outcome was the rate of recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. A Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person-years for the pooled studies at different time intervals after discontinuation of anticoagulation therapy. We also calculated the cumulative VTE recurrence rate at different time intervals. Forest plots were mapped and the results were summarized by the median and 95% credible interval (CIs). This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021249060.

Findings

Of 3856 studies identified in our search, 33 studies were identified for inclusion. After requesting study-level data, 14 studies involving 1922 patients with cancer-associated thrombosis were included. The pooled rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person-years after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy was 14.6 events (95% credible interval 6.5-22.8) in the first three months, decreasing to 1.1 events (95% CI 0.3-2.1) in year 2-3, and 2.2 events (95% CI 0.0-4.4) in year 3-5 after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. The cumulative VTE recurrence rate was 28.3% (95% CI 15.6-39.6%) at 1 year; 31.1% (95% CI 16.5-43.8%) at 2 years; 31.9% (95% CI 16.8-45.0%) at 3 years; and 35.0% (95% CI 16.8-47.4%) at 5 years after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy.

Interpretation

This meta-analysis demonstrates a high rate of recurrent VTE over time after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer-associated thrombosis. Our results support the current clinical guidelines to continue anticoagulant therapy in patients with active cancer.

Funding

Erasmus MC.

Rivaroxaban Treatment for Patients With Unprovoked or Provoked Venous Thromboembolism - Subanalysis of the J'xactly Study

Background: The efficacy and safety of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) remain unclear. Methods and Results: In this subanalysis of the J'xactly study, a multicenter prospective observational study, we evaluated the safety and effectiveness of rivaroxaban in patients with acute VTE according to unprovoked (n=388) or provoked (n=557) VTE status. Median follow-up was 21.2 months. Compared with patients in the provoked group, patients in the unprovoked group were younger, less likely to be female, and had higher body weight. The incidence of symptomatic VTE recurrence was significantly higher in the unprovoked than provoked VTE group (3.54% vs. 1.77% per patient-year; P=0.032). There was no significant difference in the incidence of major bleeding events between rivaroxaban-treated patients with unprovoked and provoked VTE (2.31% vs. 3.75% per patient-year; P=0.289). Although the proportion of patients with a body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m2 who were non-users of antiplatelet agents was higher in the unprovoked VTE group, there was no interaction effect (BMI: 4.58% vs. 1.55% per patient-year [P=0.040; P for interaction=0.361]; concomitant antiplatelet agent non-users: 3.65% vs. 1.72% per patient-year [P=0.028; P for interaction=0.627]). Conclusions: This subanalysis suggests the safety and effectiveness of rivaroxaban in patients with unprovoked VTE. In such patients, DOAC discontinuation should be considered carefully, particularly in those not using antiplatelet agents and those with a high BMI.

Obesity as a Risk Factor for Venous Thromboembolism Recurrence: A Systematic Review

Background and Objectives: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) encompasses Deep Venous Thrombosis (DVT) and Pulmonary Embolism (PE). The duration of anticoagulant therapy following a VTE event partly relies on the risk of recurrent VTE which depends on the clinical setting where VTE occurred and the VTE risk factors present. Obesity is considered a minor risk factor and studies in the literature have provided conflicting results on whether obesity influences the development of recurrences. The aim of the present study is to assess the effect of obesity on VTE recurrence in patients that suffered from a previous VTE event. Materials and Methods: We conducted systematic research for English language studies in Medline, Scopus and ProQuest databases in order to identify publications that assess the risk of VTE recurrence in obesity. Inclusion criteria were: 1. Diagnosis of VTE, 2. Definition of obesity as a body mass index ≥30 kg/m², 3. Report of the risk of obesity on VTE recurrence, 4. Adult human population. We did not include case reports, review studies or studies that assessed other forms of thrombosis and/or used other definitions of obesity. We used the Newcastle-Ottawa scale to address the quality of the studies. Results: Twenty studies were included in the analysis, of which 11 where prospective cohort studies, 6 were retrospective cohort studies, 1 was a cross-sectional study, and 2 were post-hoc analysis of randomized clinical trials. Obesity was significantly associated with recurrences in 9 studies and in 3 of them the association was significant only in females. Conclusions: There is heterogeneity between the studies both in their design and results, therefore the effect of obesity on VTE recurrence cannot be adequately estimated. Future randomized clinical studies with appropriately selected population are needed in order to streamline the effect of obesity on VTE recurrence.

Recurrence after stopping anticoagulants in women with combined oral contraceptive-associated venous thromboembolism: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The risk of recurrence after discontinuation of anticoagulation for a combined oral contraceptive (COC)-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unclear. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the incidence of recurrent VTE among women with COC-associated VTE, unprovoked VTE and to compare the incidence of recurrent VTE between the two groups. The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Embase Classic +Embase and Medline ALL to July 2020 and citations from included studies were searched. Randomized controlled trials, prospective cohort studies and meta-analyses of these study types were selected. The analysis was conducted by random-effects model. Nineteen studies were identified including 1537 women [5828 person-years (PY)] with COC-associated VTE and 1974 women (7798 PY) with unprovoked VTE. Studies were at low risk of bias. The incidence rate of VTE recurrence was 1.22/100 PY [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92-1.62, I²  = 6%] in women with COC-associated VTE, 3.89/100 PY (95% CI 2.93-5.17, I²  = 74%) in women with unprovoked VTE and the unadjusted incidence rate ratio was 0.34 (95% CI 0.26-0.46, I²  = 3%). The recurrence risk in women after COC-associated VTE is low and lower than after an unprovoked VTE.

Recurrence rate of venous thromboembolic events in granulomatosis with polyangiitis

Objective

The incidence of first-time venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) is high in granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA). The incidence of recurrent VTEs is unknown. We aimed to describe the recurrence rate of second VTEs in patients with GPA.

Methods

Retrospective chart review was performed in patients with GPA and at least one VTE at a single centre from 2002 to 2016. Inclusion criteria were 1990 ACR criteria or 2012 Revised International Chapel Hill nomenclature for GPA, at least two follow-up visits, at least one VTE during the study period, and VTE occurrence after or within 3 months before GPA diagnosis. Second VTE event-free survival rates were estimated.

Results

Out of 147 patients initially screened for GPA and with at least one VTE, 84 met inclusion criteria. Median age at first VTE was 57 years. Incidence rate for second VTE was 8.4 events per 100 patient-years (95% CI: 5.7, 12.3). Eighty-three point three per cent of first VTEs and 57.7% of second VTEs occurred when disease was active (P < 0.001). Renal involvement and constitutional symptoms at the time of first VTE were associated with VTE recurrence.

Conclusion

GPA has a high rate of VTE recurrence compared with the reported data in the general population with unprovoked VTE. Our results suggest that VTE in GPA is a recurrent co-morbidity, not always during active vasculitis, and more so in those with renal involvement and constitutional symptoms at the time of first VTE.

Increased Prevalence of Elevated D-Dimer Levels in Patients on Direct Oral Anticoagulants: Results of a Large Retrospective Study

Elevated D-dimer levels during anticoagulant therapy with vitamin K antagonists (VKA) are associated with an increased risk of thrombosis. It has been hypothesized that elevated D-dimer levels in patients receiving direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) also indicate an increased risk of thrombosis recurrence, but data on the distribution of D-dimer levels in patients with VTE on DOACs are sparse. In the present study we retrospectively analyzed D-dimer levels in patients taking DOACs after first or recurrent venous thrombosis (n = 1,716, 1,126 thereof rivaroxaban, 481 apixaban, 62 edoxaban, and 47 dabigatran). Patients on VKA (n = 402) served as control group. Thrombotic events in the study population were categorized into distal deep venous thrombosis (DVT, n = 552 patients), distal DVT with pulmonary embolism (PE, n = 166), proximal DVT (n = 685), proximal DVT with PE (n = 462), PE without DVT (n = 522), DVT of the upper extremity (n = 78), cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST, n = 48), and other venous thrombosis (n = 74). In VKA users a median D-dimer level of 0.20 mg/l was observed. In patients on DOACs D-dimer levels were significantly higher, with 0.26 mg/l for rivaroxaban, 0.31 mg/l for apixaban (P < 10−16 each), 0.24 mg/l for edoxaban (P = 2 × 10−5), and 0.25 mg/l for dabigatran (P = 4 × 10−4). These differences in comparison to patients on VKA treatment could not be explained by the patients' age, sex, body mass index, and type of thrombosis as these characteristics did not differ significantly between cohorts. Moreover, the prevalence of D-dimer levels above age-adjusted cut-offs [≥0.50 mg/l in ≤50-year-old patients, ≥(age × 0.01) mg/l in >50-year-old patients] was higher in patients on rivaroxaban (13.9%, RR 1.74, 95% CI 1.21–2.50), apixaban (17.0%, RR 2.14, 95% CI 1.45–3.15) and dabigatran (23.4%, RR 2.94, 95% CI 1.59–5.44) than in patients on VKA (8.0%). In patients on edoxaban D-dimer levels above the reference range were observed in 14.5%, but no statistical significance was reached in comparison to the VKA cohort. In conclusion, the obtained data suggest, that the type of oral anticoagulant should be considered in the clinical assessment of D-dimer levels in thrombosis patients. Further studies are warranted to evaluate a potential association between elevated D-dimer levels and thrombosis risk in patients on DOACs.

Long-term risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism among patients receiving extended oral anticoagulant therapy for first unprovoked venous thromboembolism: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The long-term risk for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) during extended anticoagulation for a first unprovoked VTE is uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the incidence of recurrent VTE during extended anticoagulation of up to 5 years in patients with a first unprovoked VTE.

METHODS

MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane CENTRAL were searched to identify randomized trials and prospective cohort studies reporting recurrent VTE among patients with a first unprovoked VTE who were to receive anticoagulation for a minimum of six additional months after completing ≥3 months of initial treatment. Unpublished data on number of recurrent VTE and person-years, obtained from authors of included studies, were used to calculate study-level incidence rate, and random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool results.

RESULTS

Twenty-six studies and 15 603 patients were included in the analysis. During 11 631 person-years of follow-up, the incidence of recurrent VTE and fatal pulmonary embolism per 100 person-years was 1.41 (95% CI, 1.03-1.84) and 0.09 (0.04-0.16), with 5-year cumulative incidences of 7.1% (3.0%-13.2%) and 1.2% (0.4%-4.6%), respectively. The incidence of recurrent VTE was 1.08 (95% CI, 0.77-1.44) with direct oral anticoagulants and 1.55 (1.01-2.20) with vitamin K antagonists. The case-fatality rate of recurrent VTE was 4.9% (95% CI, 2.2%-8.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with a first unprovoked VTE, the long-term risk of recurrent VTE during extended anticoagulation is low but not negligible. Thus, clinicians and patients should be aware of this risk and take appropriate and timely action in case of suspicion of recurrent VTE. Estimates from this study can be used to advise patients on what to expect while receiving extended anticoagulation, and estimate the net clinical benefit of extended treatment to guide long-term management of unprovoked VTE.

Second consensus document on diagnosis and management of acute deep vein thrombosis: updated document elaborated by the ESC Working Group on aorta and peripheral vascular diseases and the ESC Working Group on pulmonary circulation and right ventricular function

This consensus document is proposed to clinicians to provide the whole spectrum of deep vein thrombosis management as an update to the 2017 consensus document. New data guiding clinicians in indicating extended anticoagulation, management of patients with cancer, and prevention and management of post-thrombotic syndrome are presented. More data on benefit and safety of non-vitamin K antagonists oral anticoagulants are highlighted, along with the arrival of new antidotes for severe bleeding management.

Prevention and treatment of venous thromboembolism in hospital and the community: a research programme including the ExACT RCT

Background

Deep-vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, collectively known as venous thromboembolism when clots are formed in the venous circulation, are common disorders that are often unprovoked (i.e. there is no obvious reason for the clot occurring). Some people, after having an unprovoked clot, are at a high risk of developing another, or at risk of developing a secondary clot, most importantly in the lungs. Furthermore, in the long term, some patients will develop circulation problems known as post-thrombotic syndrome. The aim of this programme was to improve the understanding of both the prevention and the treatment of thrombosis in people at the highest risk of recurrence.

Objectives

To clarify if it is possible to identify those people at the highest risk of having a recurrent venous thromboembolism, and if it is possible to prevent this happening by giving anticoagulation treatment for longer. To clarify if it is possible to identify those people at the highest risk of developing post-thrombotic syndrome. To document the current knowledge level about prevention and treatment of venous thromboembolism. To find what the barriers are to implementing measures to prevent venous thromboembolism. To find the most cost-effective means of treating venous thromboembolism.

Design

Mixed methods, comprising a randomised controlled trial, qualitative studies, cost-effectiveness analyses and questionnaire studies, including patient preferences.

Setting

UK general practices and hospitals, predominantly from the Midlands and Shropshire.

Participants

Adults attending participating anticoagulation clinics with a diagnosis of first unprovoked deep-vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism, and health-care professionals, patients and other stakeholders who were involved in the prevention and treatment of venous thromboembolism.

Intervention

Extended treatment with oral anticoagulation therapy (2 years) versus standard care (treatment with oral anticoagulation therapy for at least 3 months).

Results

Work package 1 demonstrated that extended anticoagulation for up to 2 years was clinically effective and cost-effective in reducing the incidence of recurrent venous thromboembolism, with a small increase in the risk of bleeding. There was no difference in post-thrombotic syndrome incidence or severity, or quality of life, between those undergoing the extended treatment and those receiving the standard care. Work package 2 identified five common themes with regard to the prevention of hospital-acquired thrombosis: communication, knowledge, role of primary care, education and training, and barriers to patient adherence. Work package 3 suggested that extended anticoagulation with novel oral anticoagulants was cost-effective only at the £20,000-per-quality-adjusted life-year level for a recurrence rate of between 17.5% and 22.5%, depending on drug acquisition costs, while identifying a strong patient preference for extended anticoagulation based on a fear of recurrent venous thromboembolism.

Limitations

The major limitation was the failure to reach the planned recruitment target for work package 1.

Conclusions

Extended anticoagulation with warfarin for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism is clinically effective and cost-effective and is strongly preferred by patients to the alternative of not having treatment. There are significant barriers to the implementation of preventative measures for hospital-acquired thrombosis. Further research is required on identifying patients in whom it is safe to discontinue anticoagulation, and at what time point following a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism this should be done.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN73819751 and EudraCT 2101-022119-20.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 8, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Who should get long-term anticoagulant therapy for venous thromboembolism and with what?

After an initial 3 to 6 months of anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE), clinicians and patients face an important question: "Do we stop anticoagulants or continue them indefinitely?" The decision is easy in some scenarios (eg, stop in VTE provoked by major surgery). In most scenarios, which are faced on a day-to-day basis in routine practice, it is a challenging decision because of uncertainty in estimates in the long-term risks (principally major bleeding) and benefits (reducing recurrent VTE) and the tight trade-offs between them. Once the decision is made to continue, the next question to tackle is "Which anticoagulant?" Here again, it is a difficult decision because of the uncertainty with regard to estimates of efficacy and the safety of anticoagulant options and the tight trade-offs between choices. We conclude with the approach that we take in our clinical practice.

Long term risk of symptomatic recurrent venous thromboembolism after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment for first unprovoked venous thromboembolism event: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To determine the rate of a first recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) event after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment in patients with a first episode of unprovoked VTE, and the cumulative incidence for recurrent VTE up to 10 years.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (from inception to 15 March 2019).

STUDY SELECTION

Randomised controlled trials and prospective cohort studies reporting symptomatic recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment in patients with a first unprovoked VTE event who had completed at least three months of treatment.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two investigators independently screened studies, extracted data, and appraised risk of bias. Data clarifications were sought from authors of eligible studies. Recurrent VTE events and person years of follow-up after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment were used to calculate rates for individual studies, and data were pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Sex and site of initial VTE were investigated as potential sources of between study heterogeneity.

RESULTS

18 studies involving 7515 patients were included in the analysis. The pooled rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person years after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment was 10.3 events (95% confidence interval 8.6 to 12.1) in the first year, 6.3 (5.1 to 7.7) in the second year, 3.8 events/year (95% confidence interval 3.2 to 4.5) in years 3-5, and 3.1 events/year (1.7 to 4.9) in years 6-10. The cumulative incidence for recurrent VTE was 16% (95% confidence interval 13% to 19%) at 2 years, 25% (21% to 29%) at 5 years, and 36% (28% to 45%) at 10 years. The pooled rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person years in the first year was 11.9 events (9.6 to 14.4) for men and 8.9 events (6.8 to 11.3) for women, with a cumulative incidence for recurrent VTE of 41% (28% to 56%) and 29% (20% to 38%), respectively, at 10 years. Compared to patients with isolated pulmonary embolism, the rate of recurrent VTE was higher in patients with proximal deep vein thrombosis (rate ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 1.7) and in patients with pulmonary embolism plus deep vein thrombosis (1.5, 1.1 to 1.9). In patients with distal deep vein thrombosis, the pooled rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person years was 1.9 events (95% confidence interval 0.5 to 4.3) in the first year after anticoagulation had stopped. The case fatality rate for recurrent VTE was 4% (95% confidence interval 2% to 6%).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with a first episode of unprovoked VTE who completed at least three months of anticoagulant treatment, the risk of recurrent VTE was 10% in the first year after treatment, 16% at two years, 25% at five years, and 36% at 10 years, with 4% of recurrent VTE events resulting in death. These estimates should inform clinical practice guidelines, enhance confidence in counselling patients of their prognosis, and help guide decision making about long term management of unprovoked VTE.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42017056309.

Who should get long-term anticoagulant therapy for venous thromboembolism and with what?

After an initial 3 to 6 months of anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE), clinicians and patients face an important question: "Do we stop anticoagulants or continue them indefinitely?" The decision is easy in some scenarios (eg, stop in VTE provoked by major surgery). In most scenarios, which are faced on a day-to-day basis in routine practice, it is a challenging decision because of uncertainty in estimates in the long-term risks (principally major bleeding) and benefits (reducing recurrent VTE) and the tight trade-offs between them. Once the decision is made to continue, the next question to tackle is "Which anticoagulant?" Here again, it is a difficult decision because of the uncertainty with regard to estimates of efficacy and the safety of anticoagulant options and the tight trade-offs between choices. We conclude with the approach that we take in our clinical practice.

Fatal recurrent VTE after anticoagulant treatment for unprovoked VTE: a systematic review

Current guidelines recommend long-term anticoagulant therapy in patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE). The risk of fatal recurrent VTE after treatment discontinuation (versus that of fatal bleeding during anticoagulation) is of particular relevance in the decision to continue or stop anticoagulation after the first 3 months. Our primary aim was to provide a point-estimate of the yearly rate of fatal recurrent VTE and VTE case-fatality rate in patients with unprovoked VTE after anticoagulation cessation. Data were extracted from both randomised controlled trials and observational studies published before May 1, 2017. The pooled fatality rates were calculated using a random-effects model. 18 studies with low-to-moderate bias were included in the primary analysis, totalling 6758 patients with a median (range) follow-up duration of 2.2 (1–5) years. After anticoagulation cessation, the weighted pooled rate of VTE recurrence was 6.3 (95% CI 5.4–7.3) per 100 patient-years and the weighted pooled rate of fatal recurrent VTE was 0.17 (95% CI 0.047–0.33) per 100 patient-years, for a case-fatality rate of 2.6% (95% CI 0.86–5.0). These numbers are a solid benchmark for comparison to the risks associated with long-term anticoagulation treatment for the decision on the optimal duration of treatment of patients with unprovoked VTE.

Extended anticoagulation for unprovoked venous thromboembolism

After completing anticoagulation therapy for acute venous thromboembolism (VTE), patients with unprovoked VTE are at increased risk of recurrent thrombotic events. Recent studies suggest a risk of nearly 10% in the first year after stopping anticoagulants and 30% at 8 years. Therefore, it is important to consider extended anticoagulation for secondary prevention in these high-risk patients. While several oral anticoagulants are available for this purpose, there is limited information available regarding the optimal agent to minimize bleeding risks and maximize efficacy at VTE prevention. This review article summarizes the evidence available for Vitamin-K antagonists (VKAs) and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) for extended treatment of VTE. We also introduce the COVET trial, the first head-to-head comparison of VKAs to DOACs, rivaroxaban and apixaban, for extended management of unprovoked VTE.

Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants for pulmonary embolism: who, where and for how long?

INTRODUCTION

Acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is a relatively common cardiopulmonary emergency that is a major cause of hospitalization and morbidity and is the primary cause of mortality associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). During the last decade, one of the biggest changes in the management of PE has been the approval of four non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs; apixaban, dabigatran, edoxaban and rivaroxaban) for the treatment of PE and deep vein thrombosis and secondary prevention of VTE. Areas covered: This article reviews the evolving management of PE in the NOAC era and addresses three fundamental questions: who should receive NOACs over conventional heparin/vitamin K antagonist regimens for the treatment of acute PE; should patients be treated as inpatients or outpatients; and how long should patients be treated to reduce the risk of recurrence? Expert commentary: The management of PE is changing. NOACs provide new anticoagulant treatment options for patients with PE, based on Phase III clinical study results. The consistent efficacy and safety profile of NOACs across many PE patient subgroups, including the elderly, fragile patients, those with active cancer and high-risk (right ventricular dysfunction) patients, suggests NOAC use will increase among these patients.

External validation of the DASH prediction rule: a retrospective cohort study

Essentials Predicting recurrences may guide therapy after unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE). We evaluated the DASH score in 827 patients with unprovoked VTE to verify prediction accuracy. A DASH score ≤ 1 had a cumulative recurrence risk at 1 year of 3.6%, as predicted by the model. The DASH score performed better in younger (< 65 years old) subjects.

SUMMARY

Background The DASH prediction model has been proposed as a guide to identify patients at low risk of recurrence of venous thromboembolism (VTE), but has never been validated in an independent cohort. Aims To validate the calibration and discrimination of the DASH prediction model, and to evaluate the DASH score in a predefined patient subgroup aged > 65 years. Methods Patients with a proximal unprovoked deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism (PE) who received a full course of vitamin K antagonist or direct oral anticoagulant (> 3 months) and had D-dimer measured after treatment withdrawal were eligible. The DASH score was computed on the basis of the D-dimer level after therapy withdrawal and personal characteristics at the time of the event. Recurrent VTE events were symptomatic proximal or distal DVT/PE, and were analyzed with a time-dependent analysis. Observed 12-month and 24-month recurrence rates were compared with recurrence rates predicted by the DASH model. Results We analyzed a total of 827 patients, of whom 100 (12.1%) had an objectively documented recurrence. As compared with the original DASH cohort, there was a greater proportion of subjects with a 'low-risk' (≤ 1) DASH score (66.3% versus 51.6%, P < 0.001). The slope of the observed versus expected cumulative incidence at 2 years was 0.71 (95% confidence interval 0.51-1.45). The c-statistic was lower for subjects aged > 65 years (0.54) than for younger subjects (0.72). Conclusions These results confirm the validity of DASH prediction model, particularly in young subjects. The recurrence risk in elderly patients (> 65 years) was, however, > 5% even in those with the lowest DASH scores.

Long-term risk of recurrence after discontinuing anticoagulants for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

For patients with a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE), the optimal duration of anticoagulation is a crucial clinical dilemma which has yet to be resolved. The decision to stop anticoagulant therapy (AT) after the initial 3-6 months or to continue AT indefinitely, is primarily governed by the long-term risk of recurrence when treatment is discontinued. This risk however, is not well established, hindering decision making.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct a systematic review and a meta-analysis of studies involving patients diagnosed with a first, symptomatic unprovoked VTE or VTE provoked by minor transient risk factors, who have completed at least 3 months of initial AT; and who were followed-up for standardised time intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10 and 20 years (±3 months) after stopping AT. We will search (from inception to January 2017) MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane library for randomised controlled trials and prospective observational studies. Two reviewers will conduct all screening and data collection independently. The primary outcome of the rate of recurrent VTE at the standardised time intervals will be calculated for each study from the total number of recurrent events and the corresponding number of patient-years of follow-up. We will use a random-effects model to pool study results and report a weighted estimate of the absolute rate of recurrent VTE (events per 100 patient-years) over standardised time intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10 and 20 years after discontinuing anticoagulants.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval is not applicable for this study. Findings from this study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journal publication as well as relevant national and international conference presentations.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42017056309.

Economic evaluation of strategies for restarting anticoagulation therapy after a first event of unprovoked venous thromboembolism

Essentials Correct duration of treatment after a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unknown. We assessed when restarting anticoagulation was worthwhile based on patient risk of recurrent VTE. When the risk over a one-year period is 17.5%, restarting is cost-effective. However, sensitivity analyses indicate large uncertainty in the estimates.

SUMMARY

Background Following at least 3 months of anticoagulation therapy after a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE), there is uncertainty about the duration of therapy. Further anticoagulation therapy reduces the risk of having a potentially fatal recurrent VTE but at the expense of a higher risk of bleeding, which can also be fatal. Objective An economic evaluation sought to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of using a decision rule for restarting anticoagulation therapy vs. no extension of therapy in patients based on their risk of a further unprovoked VTE. Methods A Markov patient-level simulation model was developed, which adopted a lifetime time horizon with monthly time cycles and was from a UK National Health Service (NHS)/Personal Social Services (PSS) perspective. Results Base-case model results suggest that treating patients with a predicted 1 year VTE risk of 17.5% or higher may be cost-effective if decision makers are willing to pay up to £20 000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. However, probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that the model was highly sensitive to overall parameter uncertainty and caution is warranted in selecting the optimal decision rule on cost-effectiveness grounds. Univariate sensitivity analyses indicate variables such as anticoagulation therapy disutility and mortality risks were very influential in driving model results. Conclusion This represents the first economic model to consider the use of a decision rule for restarting therapy for unprovoked VTE patients. Better data are required to predict long-term bleeding risks during therapy in this patient group.

Long-term risk of venous thromboembolism recurrence after isolated superficial vein thrombosis

Essentials Long-term risk of recurrence of isolated superficial vein thrombosis (SVT) is under-studied. We analyzed data from a cohort of first SVT and proximal deep vein thrombosis (DVT) without cancer. The risk of recurrence as DVT or pulmonary embolism is twice lower in SVT patients. However, overall risk of recurrence is similar between SVT and proximal DVT patients. Click to hear Dr Decousus' perspective on superficial vein thrombosis SUMMARY: Background Isolated superficial vein thrombosis (iSVT) (without concomitant deep vein thrombosis [DVT] or pulmonary embolism [PE]) is a frequent event, but available data on long-term outcomes are scarce and retrospective. Therefore, we aimed to determine prospectively the risk and type of venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence after iSVT and compare them with those of proximal DVT. Methods Using data from the prospective, multicenter, observational, OPTIMEV study, we assessed, at 3 years and after anticoagulants were stopped, the incidence and the type of VTE recurrence (iSVT/DVT/PE) of patients with a first objectively confirmed iSVT without cancer (n = 285), and compared these with those of patients with a first proximal DVT without cancer (n = 262). Results As compared with proximal DVT patients, iSVT patients had a similar overall incidence of VTE recurrence (5.4% per patient-year [PY] versus 6.5% per PY, adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.5-1.6), but iSVT recurred six times more often as iSVT (2.7% versus 0.6%, aHR 5.9, 95% CI 1.3-27.1) and 2.5 times less often as deep-VTE events (2.5% versus 5.9%, aHR 0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.9). Varicose vein status did not influence the risk or the type of VTE recurrence. Saphenian junction involvement by iSVT was not associated with a higher risk of recurrence (5.2% per PY versus 5.4% per PY), but was associated with recurrence exclusively as deep-VTE events. Conclusion In patients with a first iSVT without cancer, after stopping anticoagulants, the incidence of deep-VTE recurrence is half that of DVT patients, but the overall risk of recurrence is similar. Ssaphenian junction involvement seems to influence the risk of deep-VTE recurrence, whereas varicose vein status has no impact or a low impact on VTE recurrence.

Validating the HERDOO2 rule to guide treatment duration for women with unprovoked venous thrombosis: multinational prospective cohort management study

Objective To prospectively validate the HERDOO2 rule (Hyperpigmentation, Edema, or Redness in either leg; D-dimer level ≥250 μg/L; Obesity with body mass index ≥30; or Older age, ≥65 years), which states that women with none or one of the criteria can safely discontinue anticoagulants after short term treatment.Design Prospective cohort management study.Setting 44 secondary or tertiary care centres in seven countries.Participants Of 3155 consecutive eligible participants with a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE, proximal leg deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) who completed 5-12 months of short term anticoagulant treatment, 370 declined to participate, leaving 2785 enrolled participants. 2.3% were lost to follow-up.Interventions Women with none or one of the HERDOO2 criteria were classified as at low risk of recurrent VTE and discontinued anticoagulants (intervention arm), whereas anticoagulant management for high risk women (≥2 HERDOO2 criteria) and men was left to the discretion of the clinicians and patients (observation arm).Main outcome measure Recurrent symptomatic VTE (independently and blindly adjudicated) over one year of follow-up.Results Of 1213 women, 631 (51.3%) were classified as low risk and 591 discontinued oral anticoagulant treatment. In the primary analysis, 17 low risk women who discontinued anticoagulants developed recurrent VTE during 564 patient years of follow-up (3.0% per patient year, 95% confidence interval 1.8% to 4.8%). In 323 high risk women and men who discontinued anticoagulants, 25 had VTE during 309 patient years of follow-up (8.1%, 5.2% to 11.9%), whereas in 1802 high risk women and men who continued anticoagulants 28 had recurrent VTE during 1758 patient years of follow-up (1.6%, 1.1% to 2.3%).Conclusions Women with a first unprovoked VTE event and none or one of the HERDOO2 criteria have a low risk of recurrent VTE and can safely discontinue anticoagulants after completing short term treatment.Trial registration clinicaltrials.gov NCT00967304.

The long-term recurrence risk of patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism: an observational cohort study

Essentials Long-term recurrence risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is uncertain. We performed a prospective cohort study of 839 patients with first unprovoked VTE. VTE recurrence risk is high, particularly in men with proximal thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. Sex and VTE site determine the recurrence risk and should be considered for patient counseling.

SUMMARY

Background The long-term recurrence risk (ltRR) of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is uncertain. Objective To assess the ltRR of patients with first unprovoked VTE. Patients/methods Patients were classified into three categories: distal deep vein thrombosis (DVT), proximal DVT or pulmonary embolism (PE), that is, PE associated with DVT or isolated PE. Patients with major thrombophilia or antithrombotic therapy were excluded. The endpoint was recurrent symptomatic VTE. Results A total of 839 patients were followed for a median of 7.7 years. VTE recurred in 263 patients (31%). After 10 and 20 years, the cumulative ltRR was 32% (95% confidence interval [CI], 29-36) and 44% (95% CI, 38-49) with 3.9 (95% CI, 3.3-4.6) and 3.3 (95% CI, 2.7-4.0) events per 100 patient-years, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio was 2.1 (95% CI, 1.4-3.2) and 2.1 (95% CI, 1.4-3.2) for patients with proximal DVT or PE compared with patients with distal DVT and was 2.1 (95% CI, 1.6-2.9) for men compared with women. At 10 years, 4.7 (95% CI, 3.8-5.8) events per 100 patient-years occurred in men with proximal DVT or PE, 2.4 (95% CI, 1.2-4.4) in men with distal DVT, 1.9 (95% CI, 1.2-2.8) in women with proximal DVT or PE and 0.9 (95% CI, 0.2-1.9) in women with distal DVT. Conclusion The ltRR of patients with first unprovoked VTE is high and dependent upon sex and VTE site.