Adaptive walks on changing landscapes: Levins' approach extended

Niche Specificity, Polygeny, and Pleiotropy in Herbivorous Insects

AbstractWhat causes host use specificity in herbivorous insects? Population genetic models predict specialization when habitat preference can evolve and there is antagonistic pleiotropy at a performance-affecting locus. But empirically for herbivorous insects, host use performance is governed by many genetic loci, and antagonistic pleiotropy seems to be rare. Here, we use individual-based quantitative genetic simulation models to investigate the role of pleiotropy in the evolution of sympatric host use specialization when performance and preference are quantitative traits. We look first at pleiotropies affecting only host use performance. We find that when the host environment changes slowly, the evolution of host use specialization requires levels of antagonistic pleiotropy much higher than what has been observed in nature. On the other hand, with rapid environmental change or pronounced asymmetries in productivity across host species, the evolution of host use specialization readily occurs without pleiotropy. When pleiotropies affect preference as well as performance, even with slow environmental change and host species of equal productivity, we observe fluctuations in host use breadth, with mean specificity increasing with the pervasiveness of antagonistic pleiotropy. Thus, our simulations show that pleiotropy is not necessary for specialization, although it can be sufficient, provided it is extensive or multifarious.

Evolutionary coexistence in a fluctuating environment by specialization on resource level

Microbial communities in fluctuating environments, such as oceans or the human gut, contain a wealth of diversity. This diversity contributes to the stability of communities and the functions they have in their hosts and ecosystems. To improve stability and increase production of beneficial compounds, we need to understand the underlying mechanisms causing this diversity. When nutrient levels fluctuate over time, one possibly relevant mechanism is coexistence between specialists on low and specialists on high nutrient levels. The relevance of this process is supported by the observations of coexistence in the laboratory, and by simple models, which show that negative frequency dependence of two such specialists can stabilize coexistence. However, as microbial populations are often large and fast growing, they evolve rapidly. Our aim is to determine what happens when species can evolve; whether evolutionary branching can create diversity or whether evolution will destabilize coexistence. We derive an analytical expression of the invasion fitness in fluctuating environments and use adaptive dynamics techniques to find that evolutionarily stable coexistence requires a special type of trade-off between growth at low and high nutrients. We do not find support for the necessary evolutionary trade-off in data available for the bacterium Escherichia coli and the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae on glucose. However, this type of data is scarce and might exist for other species or in different conditions. Moreover, we do find evidence for evolutionarily stable coexistence of the two species together. Since we find this coexistence in the scarce data that are available, we predict that specialization on resource level is a relevant mechanism for species diversity in microbial communities in fluctuating environments in natural settings.

Coevolutionary Dynamics of Host Immune and Parasite Virulence Based on an Age-Structured Epidemic Model

Hosts can activate a defensive response to clear the parasite once being infected. To explore how host survival and fecundity are affected by host-parasite coevolution for chronic parasitic diseases, in this paper, we proposed an age-structured epidemic model with infection age, in which the parasite transmission rate and parasite-induced mortality rate are structured by the infection age. By use of critical function analysis method, we obtained the existence of the host immune evolutionary singular strategy which is a continuous singular strategy (CSS). Assume that parasite-induced mortality begins at infection age [Formula: see text] and is constant v thereafter. We got that the value of the CSS, [Formula: see text], monotonically decreases with respect to infection age [Formula: see text] (see Case (I)), while it is non-monotone if the constant v positively depends on the immune trait c (see Case (II)). This non-monotonicity is verified by numerical simulations and implies that the direction of immune evolution depends on the initial value of immune trait. Besides that, we adopted two special forms of the parasite transmission rate to study the parasite's virulence evolution, by maximizing the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text]. The values of the convergence stable parasite's virulence evolutionary singular strategies [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] increase monotonically with respect to time lag L (i.e., the time lag between the onset of transmission and mortality). At the singular strategy [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], we further obtained the expressions of the case mortalities [Formula: see text] and how they are affected by the time lag L. Finally, we only presented some preliminary results about host and parasite coevolution dynamics, including a general condition under which the coevolutionary singular strategy [Formula: see text] is evolutionarily stable.

Coevolutionary patterns caused by prey selection

Many theoretical models have been formulated to better understand the coevolutionary patterns that emerge from antagonistic interactions. These models usually assume that the attacks by the exploiters are random, so the effect of victim selection by exploiters on coevolutionary patterns remains unexplored. Here we analytically studied the payoff for predators and prey under coevolution assuming that every individual predator can attack only a small number of prey any given time, considering two scenarios: (i) predation occurs at random; (ii) predators select prey according to phenotype matching. We also develop an individual based model to verify the robustness of our analytical prediction. We show that both scenarios result in well known similar coevolutionary patterns if population sizes are sufficiently high: symmetrical coevolutionary branching and symmetrical coevolutionary cycling (Red Queen dynamics). However, for small population sizes, prey selection can cause unexpected coevolutionary patterns. One is the breaking of symmetry of the coevolutionary pattern, where the phenotypes evolve towards one of two evolutionarily stable patterns. As population size increases, the phenotypes oscillate between these two values in a novel form of Red Queen dynamics, the episodic reversal between the two stable patterns. Thus, prey selection causes prey phenotypes to evolve towards more extreme values, which reduces the fitness of both predators and prey, increasing the likelihood of extinction.

Modeling microbial metabolic trade-offs in a chemostat

Microbes face intense competition in the natural world, and so need to wisely allocate their resources to multiple functions, in particular to metabolism. Understanding competition among metabolic strategies that are subject to trade-offs is therefore crucial for deeper insight into the competition, cooperation, and community assembly of microorganisms. In this work, we evaluate competing metabolic strategies within an ecological context by considering not only how the environment influences cell growth, but also how microbes shape their chemical environment. Utilizing chemostat-based resource-competition models, we exhibit a set of intuitive and general procedures for assessing metabolic strategies. Using this framework, we are able to relate and unify multiple metabolic models, and to demonstrate how the fitness landscape of strategies becomes intrinsically dynamic due to species-environment feedback. Such dynamic fitness landscapes produce rich behaviors, and prove to be crucial for ecological and evolutionarily stable coexistence in all the models we examined.

The shape of a defense-growth trade-off governs seasonal trait dynamics in natural phytoplankton

Theory predicts that trade-offs, quantifying costs of functional trait adjustments, crucially affect community trait adaptation to altered environmental conditions, but empirical verification is scarce. We evaluated trait dynamics (antipredator defense, maximum growth rate, and phosphate affinity) of a lake phytoplankton community in a seasonally changing environment, using literature trait data and 21 years of species-resolved high-frequency biomass measurements. The trait data indicated a concave defense-growth trade-off, promoting fast-growing species with intermediate defense. With seasonally increasing grazing pressure, the community shifted toward higher defense levels at the cost of lower growth rates along the trade-off curve, while phosphate affinity explained some deviations from it. We discuss how low fitness differences of species, inferred from model simulations, in concert with stabilizing mechanisms, e.g., arising from further trait dimensions, may lead to the observed phytoplankton diversity. In conclusion, quantifying trade-offs is key for predictions of community trait adaptation and biodiversity under environmental change.

Contribution of SPI-1 bistability to Salmonella enterica cooperative virulence: insights from single cell analysis

Salmonella enterica pathogenicity island 1 (SPI-1) is a gene cluster that encodes a type III secretion system and effectors involved in epithelial cell invasion. SPI-1 undergoes bistable expression, with concomitant formation of SPI-1^ON and SPI-1^OFF lineages. This study describes single cell analysis of SP1-1 bistability and epithelial cell invasion, and reports the unsuspected observation that optimal invasion of epithelial cells requires the presence of both SPI-1^ON and SPI-1^OFF subpopulations. The contribution of SPI-1^OFF cells to optimal invasion may rely on their ability to invade epithelial cells if a SPI-1^ON subpopulation is present. In fact, Salmonella SPI-1 mutants are also able to invade epithelial cells in the presence of SPI-1^ONSalmonellae, a phenomenon described in the 1990’s by Galán and co-workers. Invasion by SPI-1^OFF cells does not seem to involve a diffusible factor. A small number of SPI-1^ON cells is sufficient to endow the bacterial population with invasion capacity, a feature that may permit host colonization regardless of the bottlenecks encountered by Salmonella populations inside animals.

Geometrical envelopes: Extending graphical contemporary niche theory to communities and eco-evolutionary dynamics

Contemporary niche theory is a powerful structuring framework in theoretical ecology. First developed in the context of resource competition, it has been extended to encompass other types of regulating factors such as shared predators, parasites or inhibitors. A central component of contemporary niche theory is a graphical approach popularized by Tilman that illustrates the different outcomes of competition along environmental gradients, like coexistence and competitive exclusion. These food web modules have been used to address species sorting in community ecology, as well as adaptation and coexistence on eco-evolutionary time scales in adaptive dynamics. Yet, the associated graphical approach has been underused so far in the evolutionary context. In this paper, we provide a rigorous approach to extend this graphical method to a continuum of interacting strategies, using the geometrical concept of the envelope. Not only does this approach provide community and eco-evolutionary bifurcation diagrams along environmental gradients, it also sheds light on the similarities and differences between those two perspectives. Adaptive dynamics naturally merges with this ecological framework, with a close correspondence between the classification of singular strategies and the geometrical properties of the envelope. Finally, this approach provides an integrative tool to study adaptation between levels of organization, from the individual to the ecosystem.

How do biting disease vectors behaviourally respond to host availability?

BACKGROUND

Ecological theory predicts a diverse range of functional responses of species to resource availability; but in the context of human blood consumption by disease vectors, a simplistic, linear response is ubiquitously assumed. A simple and flexible model formulation is presented that extends the Holling's Types to account for a wider range of qualitatively distinct behaviours, and used to examine the impact of different vector responses to the relative availability of multiple blood-host species.

RESULTS

Epidemiological models of falciparum malaria, Chagas disease and Lyme disease demonstrate that the standard, often implicit, assumption of a linear functional response can lead to spurious under- or over-estimates in disease transmission potential, across a full range of pathogen life-cycles. It is shown how the functional response in vector biting can augment disease intervention outcomes. Interactions between vector biting behaviour and uneven pathogen transmission probabilities between alternative hosts, as is the case for Chagas disease, can render infection more resilient to control.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the novel response formula and the nested vector-borne disease structure offer a flexible framework that can be applied to other vector-borne diseases in assessing the role of this newly identified aspect of biting behavioural ecology.

Adaptive evolution of foraging-related trait in intraguild predation system

This paper considers a tri-trophic food chain in which the top predator (intraguild predator) also feeds on the basal resource. We refer to the model as intraguild predation. We analyze its dynamics from an evolutionary perspective. The attack rate or foraging effort of the middle species (intraguild prey) for the basal resources is assumed to be evolvable and is also assumed to be traded off with the vulnerability to being attacked by the top predator. We focus on the analysis of the evolutionary dynamics of the attack rate using the adaptive dynamics approximation of mutation limited evolution. In particular, the critical function analysis is applied. This study reveals that the evolutionary dynamics of the intraguild predation system is completely characterized by the concavity of the trade-off function and admits trichotomous dynamic scenarios: (1) when the trade-off function is more concave than the critical function, an evolutionary singular strategy exists and is a repeller; (2) when the trade-off function is less concave than the critical function, the evolutionary singular strategy is convergence stable and turns into an evolutionary branching point, in which case the monomorphic intraguild prey will split into two different types; (3) when the trade-off function is convex, the evolutionary singular strategy turns into a continuous stable strategy and is uninvadable. Our theoretical analysis suggests that the adaptive foraging behavior may strongly influence the community stability. Consequently, it may promote the diversity of intraguild prey and the persistence of the system on the evolutionary timescale, which highlight a more comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the intricate interplay between ecological and evolutionary force. This modeling approach provides a venue for research on indirect effects from an evolutionary perspective.

Insights from life history theory for an explicit treatment of trade-offs in conservation biology

As economic and social contexts become more embedded within biodiversity conservation, it becomes obvious that resources are a limiting factor in conservation. This recognition is leading conservation scientists and practitioners to increasingly frame conservation decisions as trade-offs between conflicting societal objectives. However, this framing is all too often done in an intuitive way, rather than by addressing trade-offs explicitly. In contrast, the concept of trade-off is a keystone in evolutionary biology, where it has been investigated extensively. I argue that insights from evolutionary theory can provide methodological and theoretical support to evaluating and quantifying trade-offs in biodiversity conservation. I reviewed the diverse ways in which trade-offs have emerged within the context of conservation and how advances from evolutionary theory can help avoid the main pitfalls of an implicit approach. When studying both evolutionary trade-offs (e.g., reproduction vs. survival) and conservation trade-offs (e.g., biodiversity conservation vs. agriculture), it is crucial to correctly identify the limiting resource, hold constant the amount of this resource when comparing different scenarios, and choose appropriate metrics to quantify the extent to which the objectives have been achieved. Insights from studies in evolutionary theory also reveal how an inadequate selection of conservation solutions may result from considering suboptimal rather than optional solutions when examining whether a trade-off exits between 2 objectives. Furthermore, the shape of a trade-off curve (i.e., whether the relationship between 2 objectives follows a concave, convex, or linear form) is known to affect crucially the definition of optimal solutions in evolutionary biology and very likely affects decisions in biodiversity conservation planning too. This interface between evolutionary biology and biodiversity conservation can therefore provide methodological guidance to support decision makers in the difficult task of choosing among conservation solutions.

Evolution, the loss of diversity and the role of trade-offs

We investigate how the loss of previously evolved diversity in host resistance to disease is dependent on the complexity of the underlying evolutionary trade-off. Working within the adaptive dynamics framework, using graphical tools (pairwise invasion plots, PIPs; trait evolution plots, TEPs) and algebraic analysis we consider polynomial trade-offs of increasing degree. Our focus is on the evolutionary trajectory of the dimorphic population after it has been attracted to an evolutionary branching point. We show that for sufficiently complex trade-offs (here, polynomials of degree three or higher) the resulting invasion boundaries can form closed 'oval' areas of invadability and strategy coexistence. If no attracting singular strategies exist within this region, then the population is destined to evolve outside of the region of coexistence, resulting in the loss of one strain. In particular, the loss of diversity in this model always occurs in such a way that the remaining strain is not attracted back to the branching point but to an extreme of the trade-off, meaning the diversity is lost forever. We also show similar results for a non-polynomial but complex trade-off, and for a different eco-evolutionary model. Our work further highlights the importance of trade-offs to evolutionary behaviour.

Adaptive evolution of defense ability leads to diversification of prey species

In this paper, by using the adaptive dynamics approach, we investigate how the adaptive evolution of defense ability promotes the diversity of prey species in an initial one-prey-two-predator community. We assume that the prey species can evolve to a safer strategy such that it can reduce the predation risk, but a prey with a high defense ability for one predator may have a low defense ability for the other and vice versa. First, by using the method of critical function analysis, we find that if the trade-off is convex in the vicinity of the evolutionarily singular strategy, then this singular strategy is a continuously stable strategy. However, if the trade-off is weakly concave near the singular strategy and the competition between the two predators is relatively weak, then the singular strategy may be an evolutionary branching point. Second, we find that after the branching has occurred in the prey strategy, if the trade-off curve is globally concave, then the prey species might eventually evolve into two specialists, each caught by only one predator species. However, if the trade-off curve is convex-concave-convex, the prey species might eventually branch into two partial specialists, each being caught by both of the two predators and they can stably coexist on the much longer evolutionary timescale.

A maladaptive intermediate form: a strong trade-off revealed by hybrids between two forms of a snail-feeding beetle

Although trade-off curves between fitness components are essential in theoretical studies of ecological specialization, few empirical studies have actually determined these curves experimentally. Using the snail-feeding carabid beetle Damaster blaptoides, which is endemic to the Japanese archipelago, we estimated the trade-off curve for feeding success with alternative foraging behaviors that are linked to varying morphology. First, we crossed a stout-bodied and a slender-bodied subspecies and produced their F1 and backcross hybrids, which exhibited intermediate body shapes. Then we compared the snail-feeding success of these beetles. Stout beetles could eat small snails by crushing shells, whereas slender beetles could eat large snails by inserting their heads into shells. Although hybrids with intermediate body shapes attempted to employ both strategies, they frequently failed at both. The relationship between feeding success rate and beetle body shape was represented by an inward bending curve, which implies a strong trade-off that can cause disruptive selection, leading to ecological specialization. We suggest that the intermediately shaped beetles were maladapted for snail-feeding and that disruptive selection may have played an important role in the morphological divergence of these beetles.

Adaptive evolution of attack ability promotes the evolutionary branching of predator species

In this paper, with the methods of adaptive dynamics and critical function analysis, we investigate the evolutionary branching phenomenon of predator species. We assume that both the prey and predators are density-dependent and the predator's attack ability can adaptively evolve, but this has a cost in terms of its death rate. First, we identify the general properties of trade-off relationships that allow for a continuously stable strategy and evolutionary branching in the predator strategy. It is found that if the trade-off curve is weakly concave near the singular strategy, then the singular strategy may be an evolutionary branching point. Second, we find that after the branching has occurred in the predator strategy, if the trade-off curve is convex-concave-convex, the predator species will eventually evolve into two different types, which can stably coexist on the much longer evolutionary timescale and no further branching is possible.

A generalized functional response for predators that switch between multiple prey species

We develop a theory for the food intake of a predator that can switch between multiple prey species. The theory addresses empirical observations of prey switching and is based on the behavioural assumption that a predator tends to continue feeding on prey that are similar to the prey it has consumed last, in terms of, e.g., their morphology, defences, location, habitat choice, or behaviour. From a predator's dietary history and the assumed similarity relationship among prey species, we derive a general closed-form multi-species functional response for describing predators switching between multiple prey species. Our theory includes the Holling type II functional response as a special case and makes consistent predictions when populations of equivalent prey are aggregated or split. An analysis of the derived functional response enables us to highlight the following five main findings. (1) Prey switching leads to an approximate power-law relationship between ratios of prey abundance and prey intake, consistent with experimental data. (2) In agreement with empirical observations, the theory predicts an upper limit of 2 for the exponent of such power laws. (3) Our theory predicts deviations from power-law switching at very low and very high prey-abundance ratios. (4) The theory can predict the diet composition of a predator feeding on multiple prey species from diet observations for predators feeding only on pairs of prey species. (5) Predators foraging on more prey species will show less pronounced prey switching than predators foraging on fewer prey species, thus providing a natural explanation for the known difficulties of observing prey switching in the field.

The evolutionary dynamics of within-generation immune priming in invertebrate hosts

While invertebrates lack the machinery necessary for 'acquired immunity', there is increasing empirical evidence that exposure to low levels of disease may 'prime' an invertebrate's immune response, increasing its defence to subsequent exposure. Despite this increasing empirical data, there has been little theoretical attention paid to immune priming. Here, we investigate the evolution of immune priming, focusing on the role of the unique feedbacks generated by a newly developed susceptible-primed-infected epidemiological model. Contrasting our results with previous models on the evolution of acquired immunity, we highlight that there are important implications to the evolution of immunity through priming owing to these different epidemiological feedbacks. In particular, we find that in contrast to acquired immunity, priming is strongly selected for at high as well as intermediate pathogen virulence. We also find that priming may be greatest at either intermediate or high host lifespans depending on the severity of disease. Furthermore, hosts faced with more severe pathogens are more likely to evolve diversity in priming. Finally, we show when the evolution of priming leads to the exclusion of the pathogens or hosts experiencing population cycles. Overall the model acts as a baseline for understanding the evolution of priming in host-pathogen systems.

What life cycle graphs can tell about the evolution of life histories

We analyze long-term evolutionary dynamics in a large class of life history models. The model family is characterized by discrete-time population dynamics and a finite number of individual states such that the life cycle can be described in terms of a population projection matrix. We allow an arbitrary number of demographic parameters to be subject to density-dependent population regulation and two or more demographic parameters to be subject to evolutionary change. Our aim is to identify structural features of life cycles and modes of population regulation that correspond to specific evolutionary dynamics. Our derivations are based on a fitness proxy that is an algebraically simple function of loops within the life cycle. This allows us to phrase the results in terms of properties of such loops which are readily interpreted biologically. The following results could be obtained. First, we give sufficient conditions for the existence of optimisation principles in models with an arbitrary number of evolving traits. These models are then classified with respect to their appropriate optimisation principle. Second, under the assumption of just two evolving traits we identify structural features of the life cycle that determine whether equilibria of the monomorphic adaptive dynamics (evolutionarily singular points) correspond to fitness minima or maxima. Third, for one class of frequency-dependent models, where optimisation is not possible, we present sufficient conditions that allow classifying singular points in terms of the curvature of the trade-off curve. Throughout the article we illustrate the utility of our framework with a variety of examples.

Anthropogenically induced adaptation to invade (AIAI): contemporary adaptation to human-altered habitats within the native range can promote invasions

Adaptive evolution is currently accepted as playing a significant role in biological invasions. Adaptations relevant to invasions are typically thought to occur either recently within the introduced range, as an evolutionary response to novel selection regimes, or within the native range, because of long-term adaptation to the local environment. We propose that recent adaptation within the native range, in particular adaptations to human-altered habitat, could also contribute to the evolution of invasive populations. Populations adapted to human-altered habitats in the native range are likely to increase in abundance within areas frequented by humans and associated with human transport mechanisms, thus enhancing the likelihood of transport to a novel range. Given that habitats are altered by humans in similar ways worldwide, as evidenced by global environmental homogenization, propagules from populations adapted to human-altered habitats in the native range should perform well within similarly human-altered habitats in the novel range. We label this scenario 'Anthropogenically Induced Adaptation to Invade'. We illustrate how it differs from other evolutionary processes that may occur during invasions, and how it can help explain accelerating rates of invasions.

Ecological speciation in dynamic landscapes

Although verbal theories of speciation consider landscape changes, ecological speciation is usually modelled in a fixed geographical arrangement. Yet landscape changes occur, at different spatio-temporal scales, due to geological, climatic or ecological processes, and these changes result in repeated divisions and reconnections of populations. We examine the effect of such landscape dynamics on speciation. We use a stochastic, sexual population model with polygenic inheritance, embedded in a landscape dynamics model (allopatry-sympatry oscillations). We show that, under stabilizing selection, allopatry easily generates diversity, but species coexistence is evolutionarily unsustainable. Allopatry produces refuges whose persistence depends on the characteristic time scales of the landscape dynamics. Under disruptive selection, assuming that sympatric speciation is impossible due to Mendelian inheritance, allopatry is necessary for ecological differentiation. The completion of reproductive isolation, by reinforcement, then requires several sympatric phases. These results demonstrate that the succession of past, current and future geographical arrangements considerably influence the speciation process.

On invasion boundaries and the unprotected coexistence of two strategies

In this paper we present, in terms of invasion fitness functions, a sufficient condition for a coexistence of two strategies which are not protected from extinction when rare. In addition, we connect the result to the local characterization of singular strategies in the theory of adaptive dynamics. We conclude with some illustrative examples.

Evolutionary branching and evolutionarily stable coexistence of predator species: Critical function analysis

On the ecological timescale, two predator species with linear functional responses can stably coexist on two competing prey species. In this paper, with the methods of adaptive dynamics and critical function analysis, we investigate under what conditions such a coexistence is also evolutionarily stable, and whether the two predator species may evolve from a single ancestor via evolutionary branching. We assume that predator strategies differ in capture rates and a predator with a high capture rate for one prey has a low capture rate for the other and vice versa. First, by using the method of critical function analysis, we identify the general properties of trade-off functions that allow for evolutionary branching in the predator strategy. It is found that if the trade-off curve is weakly convex in the vicinity of the singular strategy and the interspecific prey competition is not strong, then this singular strategy is an evolutionary branching point, near which the resident and mutant predator populations can coexist and diverge in their strategies. Second, we find that after branching has occurred in the predator phenotype, if the trade-off curve is globally convex, the predator population will eventually branch into two extreme specialists, each completely specializing on a particular prey species. However, in the case of smoothed step function-like trade-off, an interior dimorphic singular coalition becomes possible, the predator population will eventually evolve into two generalist species, each feeding on both of the two prey species. The algebraical analysis reveals that an evolutionarily stable dimorphism will always be attractive and that no further branching is possible under this model.

Rapid exploiter-victim coevolution: the race is not always to the swift

The modeling of coevolutionary races has traditionally been dominated by methods invoking a timescale separation between ecological and evolutionary dynamics, the latter assumed to be much slower than the former. Yet it is becoming increasingly clear that in many cases the two processes occur on similar timescales and that such "rapid" evolution can have profound implications for the dynamics of communities and ecosystems. After briefly reviewing the timescale separations most common in coevolution theory, we use a general model of exploiter-victim coevolution to confront predictions from slow-evolution analysis with Monte Carlo simulations. We show how rapid evolution radically alters the dynamics and outcome of coevolutionary arms races. In particular, a fast-evolving exploiter can enable victim diversification and thereby lose a race it is expected to win. We explain simulation results, using mathematical analysis with relaxed timescale separations. Unusual mutation parameters are not required, since rapid evolution naturally emerges from slow competitive exclusion. Our results point to interesting consequences of exploiter rapid evolution and experimentally testable patterns, while indicating that more attention should be paid to rapid evolution in evolutionary theory.

On the determination of evolutionary outcomes directly from the population dynamics of the resident

In order to determine the possible evolutionary behaviour of an ecological system using adaptive dynamics, it is necessary in an ab initio calculation to find the fitness and its derivatives at a singular point. It has been suggested that the possible evolutionary behaviour can be predicted directly from the resident population dynamics, without the need for calculation, by applying three criteria-one based on the form of the density dependent rates and two on the role played by the evolving parameters. The existing arguments for these criteria are rather limited: they apply to systems in which individuals enter an initial class and can then move through any number of other population classes sequentially. (Extensions are included but only apply for systems of two and three classes.) Additionally, many of the arguments depend on the use of a phenomenologically motivated fitness (shown equivalent to the standard form but in a rather long and indirect manner). The present paper removes all these flaws-the criteria are established directly from the standard definition of fitness and individuals can enter any class and move through the classes non-sequentially without restriction on their number. The criteria thus established underlie a geometric description of the singular behaviour in adaptive dynamics which allows direct inferences to be made from population dynamics to the possible singular behaviour depending on which of the criteria apply and on the nature of the trade-off between evolving parameters. The method has the great advantage of leaving the trade-off explicit but unspecified.

Live where you thrive: joint evolution of habitat choice and local adaptation facilitates specialization and promotes diversity

We derive a comprehensive overview of specialization evolution based on analytical results and numerical illustrations. We study the separate and joint evolution of two critical facets of specialization-local adaptation and habitat choice-under different life cycles, modes of density regulation, variance-covariance structures, and trade-off strengths. A particular feature of our analysis is the investigation of arbitrary trade-off functions. We find that local-adaptation evolution qualitatively changes the outcome of habitat-choice evolution under a wide range of conditions. In addition, habitat-choice evolution qualitatively and invariably changes the outcomes of local-adaptation evolution whenever trade-offs are weak. Even weak trade-offs, which favor generalists when habitat choice is fixed, select for specialists once local adaptation and habitat choice are both allowed to evolve. Unless trapped by maladaptive genetic constraints, joint evolution of local adaptation and habitat choice in the models analyzed here thus always leads to specialists, independent of life cycle, density regulation, and trade-off strength, thus raising the bar for evolutionarily sound explanations of generalism. Whether a single specialist or two specialists evolve depends on the life cycle and the mode of density regulation. Finally, we explain why the gradual evolutionary emergence of coexisting specialists requires more restrictive conditions than does their evolutionarily stable maintenance.

Fluctuation domains in adaptive evolution

We derive an expression for the variation between parallel trajectories in phenotypic evolution, extending the well known result that predicts the mean evolutionary path in adaptive dynamics or quantitative genetics. We show how this expression gives rise to the notion of fluctuation domains-parts of the fitness landscape where the rate of evolution is very predictable (due to fluctuation dissipation) and parts where it is highly variable (due to fluctuation enhancement). These fluctuation domains are determined by the curvature of the fitness landscape. Regions of the fitness landscape with positive curvature, such as adaptive valleys or branching points, experience enhancement. Regions with negative curvature, such as adaptive peaks, experience dissipation. We explore these dynamics in the ecological scenarios of implicit and explicit competition for a limiting resource.

The implications of coevolutionary dynamics to host-parasite interactions

Due to the importance of infectious disease, there is a large body of theory on the evolution of either hosts or, more commonly, parasites. Here we present a fully coevolutionary model of a host-parasite system that includes ecological dynamics that feed back into the coevolutionary outcome, and we show that highly virulent parasites may evolve due to the coevolutionary process. Parasite evolution is very sensitive to evolution in the host, and virulence fluctuates substantially when mutation rates vary between host and parasite. Evolutionary branching in the host leads to parasites increasing their virulence, and small changes in host resistance drive large changes in parasite virulence. Evolutionary branching in one species does not cause branching in the other. Our work emphasizes the importance of considering coevolutionary dynamics and shows that certain highly virulent parasites may result from responses to host evolution.

Can possible evolutionary outcomes be determined directly from the population dynamics?

Traditionally, to determine the possible evolutionary behaviour of an ecological system using adaptive dynamics, it is necessary to calculate the fitness and its derivatives at a singular point. We investigate the claim that the possible evolutionary behaviour can be predicted directly from the population dynamics, without the need for calculation, by applying three criteria - one based on the form of the density dependent rates and two on the role played by the evolving parameters. Taking a general continuous time model, with broad ecological range, we show that the claim is true. Initially, we assume that individuals enter in class 1 and move through population classes sequentially; later we relax these assumptions and find that the criteria still apply. However, when we consider models where the evolving parameters appear non-linearly in the dynamics, we find some aspects of the criteria fail; useful but weaker results on possible evolutionary behaviour now apply.

Evolutionary emergence of responsive and unresponsive personalities

In many animal species, individuals differ consistently in suites of correlated behaviors, comparable with human personalities. Increasing evidence suggests that one of the fundamental factors structuring personality differences is the responsiveness of individuals to environmental stimuli. Whereas some individuals tend to be highly responsive to such stimuli, others are unresponsive and show routine-like behaviors. Much research has focused on the proximate causes of these differences but little is known about their evolutionary origin. Here, we provide an evolutionary explanation. We develop a simple but general evolutionary model that is based on two key ingredients. First, the benefits of responsiveness are frequency-dependent; that is, being responsive is advantageous when rare but disadvantageous when common. This explains why responsive and unresponsive individuals can coexist within a population. Second, positive-feedback mechanisms reduce the costs of responsiveness; that is, responsiveness is less costly for individuals that have been responsive before. This explains why individuals differ consistently in their responsiveness, across contexts and over time. As a result, natural selection gives rise to stable individual differences in responsiveness. Whereas some individuals respond to environmental stimuli in all kinds of contexts, others consistently neglect such stimuli. Interestingly, such differences induce correlations among all kinds of other traits (e.g., boldness and aggressiveness), thus providing an explanation for environment-specific behavioral syndromes.