Projections of health indicators for chronic disease under a semi-Markov assumption

The emerging epidemic of inflammatory bowel disease in Asia and Iran by 2035: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

The projection studies are imperative to satisfy demands for health care systems and proper response to the public health problems such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

METHODS

To accomplish this, we established an illness-death model based on available data to project the future prevalence of IBD in Asia, Iran in particular, separately from 2017 to 2035. We applied two deterministic and stochastic approaches.

RESULTS

In 2035, as compared to 2020, we expected a 2.5-fold rise in prevalence for Iran with 69 thousand cases, a 2.3-fold increment for North Africa and the Middle East with 220 thousand cases, quadrupling of the prevalence for India with 2.2 million cases, a 1.5-fold increase for East Asia region with 4.5 million cases, and a 1.6-fold elevation in prevalence for high-income Asia-Pacific and Southeast Asia regions with 183 and 199 thousand cases respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed an emerging epidemic for the prevalence of IBD in Asia regions and/or countries. Hence, we suggest the need for immediate action to control this increasing trend in Asia and Iran. However, we were virtually unable to use information about age groups, gender, and other factors influencing the evolution of IBD in our model due to lack of access to reliable data.

Novel, non-nitrocatechol catechol-O-methyltransferase inhibitors modulate dopamine neurotransmission in the frontal cortex and improve cognitive flexibility

RATIONALE

Cognitive impairment is a primary feature of many neuropsychiatric disorders and there is a need for new therapeutic options. Catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) inhibitors modulate cortical dopaminergic function and have been proposed as potential cognitive enhancers. Unfortunately, currently available COMT inhibitors are not good candidates due to either poor blood-brain barrier penetration or severe toxicity.

OBJECTIVES

To address the need for safe, brain-penetrant COMT inhibitors, we tested multiple novel compounds in a set of preclinical in vivo efficacy assays in rats to determine their ability to inhibit COMT function and viability as potential clinical candidates.

METHODS

We measured the change in concentration of dopamine (DA) metabolites in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) from the cisterna magna and extracellular fluid (ECF) from the frontal cortex produced by our novel compounds. Additionally, we tested the effects of our brain-penetrant COMT inhibitors in an attentional set-shifting assay (ASST). We benchmarked the performance of the novel COMT inhibitors to the effects produced by the known COMT inhibitor tolcapone.

RESULTS

We found that multiple COMT inhibitors, exemplified by LIBD-1 and LIBD-3, significantly modulated dopaminergic function measured as decreases in homovanillic acid (HVA) and increases in 3,4-Dihydroxyphenylacetic acid (DOPAC), two DA metabolites, in CSF and the frontal cortex. Additionally, we found that LIBD-1 significantly improved cognitive flexibility in the ASST, an effect previously reported following tolcapone administration.

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate that LIBD-1 is a novel COMT inhibitor with promising in vivo activity and the potential to serve as a new therapy for cognitive impairment.