Impact of Pretransplant MELD Score on Posttransplant Outcome in Orthotopic Liver Transplantation for Patients with Acute-on-Chronic Hepatitis B Liver Failure

Analysis of Short-Term and Long-Term Outcomes of Living Donor Liver Transplantation for Patients with a High Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score

BACKGROUND

The Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring system can predict short-term survival among patients awaiting liver transplantation and is used to allocate organs prioritizing liver transplantation. Patients with high MELD scores have been reported to have worse early graft dysfunction and survival. However, recent studies have shown that patients with high MELD scores had satisfactory graft survival, although they showed more postoperative complications. In this study, we examined the effect of the MELD score on the short-term and long-term prognosis of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT).

METHODS

This study included 102 patients who underwent LDLT in our institution between 2005 and 2020. The patients were divided into 3 groups according to MELD score (low MELD group: ≤20, moderate MELD group: 21-30, and high MELD group: ≥31). Perioperative factors were compared among the 3 groups, and cumulative overall survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

The patients' characteristics were comparable, and the median age was 54 years. Hepatitis C virus cirrhosis was the most common primary disease (n = 40), followed by hepatitis B virus (n = 11). The low MELD group consisted of 68 patients (median score: 16, 10-20); the moderate MELD group, 24 patients (median score: 24, 21-30); and the high MELD group, 10 patients (median score: 35, 31-40). The mean operative time (1241 min versus 1278 min versus 1158 min, P = .19) and mean blood loss (7517 mL vs 11162 mL vs 8808 mL, P = .71) were not significantly different among the 3 groups. The vascular and biliary complication rates were similar. The periods of intensive care unit and hospital stay tended to be longer in the high MELD group, but the difference was insignificant. The 1-year postoperative survival rate (85.3 % vs 87.5 % vs 90.0 %, P = .90) and overall survival rate were also not significantly different among the 3 groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that LDLT patients with high MELD scores do not have a worse prognosis than those with low scores.

Living-Donor Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Impact of the MELD Score and Predictive Value of NLR on Survival

Background: Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) tend to be referred for liver transplantation (LT) at an early stage of cirrhosis, with lower pre-LT Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores. We investigated the impact of high MELD scores on post-LT outcomes in patients with HCC and validated the prognostic significance of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). Patients and Method: This retrospective single-center cohort study enrolled 230 patients with HCC who underwent LDLT from 2004−2019 in our institute. We defined a high MELD score as ≥20. Results: The MELD < 20 and MELD ≥ 20 groups comprised 205 and 25 cases, respectively. Although there was no significant difference in disease-free survival between the two groups (p = 0.629), the incidence of septic shock (p = 0.019) was significantly higher in the high MELD group. The one-, three-, and five-year overall survival rates were not significantly different between the two groups (p = 0.056). In univariate analysis, a high pre-LT NLR was associated with poorer survival in the high MELD group (p = 0.029, hazard ratio [HR]: 1.07, 90% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02−1.13). NLR cut-off values of ≥10.7 and <10.7 were predictive of mortality, with an AUC of 0.705 (90% CI: 0.532−0.879). The one-, three-, and five-year post-LT survival rates were significantly higher among the recipients with an NLR < 10.7 than those with an NLR ≥ 10.7 (p = 0.005). Conclusions: Pre-LT MELD score ≥ 20 was associated with a higher risk of developing post-LT septic shock and mortality. The pre-LT serum NLR is a useful predictive factor for clinical outcomes in patients with HCC with high MELD scores.

Liver Transplantation for Acute on Chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND

Acute-on chronic liver failure (ACLF) is defined as acute insult on previous liver disease that causes sudden worsening of liver functions.

METHODS

ACLF is characterized by high incidence of organ failure and prognosis is remarkably worse than patients with cirrhosis. Incidence of organ failures is very high despite best medical care and timely liver transplant before development of multi organ failure is associated with good survival rates.

RESULTS

At present, there are no reliable score or ways to correctly identify patients who are going to recover from patients who will need transplantation. Organ failures are important part of prognosis and to define need or futility of early liver transplantation.

CONCLUSION

Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) published their recommendations regarding ACLF in 2014. Several important studies regarding course/nature of disease and transplantation for ACLF became available after 2014 APASL recommendations and still there are some unanswered areas. The current review discusses various issues regarding liver transplantation in patients with ACLF.

Liver failure determines the outcome in patients of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF): comparison of APASL ACLF research consortium (AARC) and CLIF-SOFA models

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a progressive disease associated with rapid clinical worsening and high mortality. Early prediction of mortality and intervention can improve patient outcomes. We aimed to develop a dynamic prognostic model and compare it with the existing models.

METHODS

A total of 1402 ACLF patients, enrolled in the APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) with 90-day follow-up, were analyzed. An ACLF score was developed in a derivation cohort (n = 480) and was validated (n = 922).

RESULTS

The overall survival of ACLF patients at 28 days was 51.7%, with a median of 26.3 days. Five baseline variables, total bilirubin, creatinine, serum lactate, INR and hepatic encephalopathy, were found to be independent predictors of mortality, with AUROC in derivation and validation cohorts being 0.80 and 0.78, respectively. AARC-ACLF score (range 5-15) was found to be superior to MELD and CLIF SOFA scores in predicting mortality with an AUROC of 0.80. The point scores were categorized into grades of liver failure (Gr I: 5-7; II: 8-10; and III: 11-15 points) with 28-day cumulative mortalities of 12.7, 44.5 and 85.9%, respectively. The mortality risk could be dynamically calculated as, with each unit increase in AARC-ACLF score above 10, the risk increased by 20%. A score of ≥11 at baseline or persisting in the first week was often seen among nonsurvivors (p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The AARC-ACLF score is easy to use, dynamic and reliable, and superior to the existing prediction models. It can reliably predict the need for interventions, such as liver transplant, within the first week.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Determining individual risk of short-term mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) is a difficult task. We aimed to develop and externally validate a prognostic nomogram for ACHBLF patients.

METHODS

The nomogram was built to estimate the probability of 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and 60-month survival based on an internal cohort of 246 patients with ACHBLF. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of nomogram were determined by a concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (tdROC), comparing with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and an external cohort of 138 patients. Furthermore, we plotted decision curves to evaluate the clinical usefulness of nomogram.

RESULTS

Independent factors derived from multivariable Cox analysis of training cohort to predict mortality were age, total bilirubin, serum sodium, and prothrombin activity, which were all assembled into nomogram. The calibration curves for probability of survival showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of nomogram was higher than that of MELD score for predicting survival (30-day, 0.809 vs 0.717, P < 0.001; 60-day, 0.792 vs 0.685, P < 0.001; 90-day, 0.779 vs 0.678, P < 0.001; 6-month, 0.781 vs 0.677, P < 0.001). Additionally, tdROC and decision curves also showed that nomogram was superior to MELD score. The results were confirmed in validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic nomogram provided an individualized risk estimate of short-term survival in patients with ACHBLF, offering to clinicians to improve their abilities to assess patient prognosis.

Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a distinct entity that differs from acute liver failure and decompensated cirrhosis in timing, presence of treatable acute precipitant, and course of disease, with a potential for self-recovery. The core concept is acute deterioration of existing liver function in a patient of chronic liver disease with or without cirrhosis in response to an acute insult. The insult should be a hepatic one and presentation in the form of liver failure (jaundice, encephalopathy, coagulopathy, ascites) with or without extrahepatic organ failure in a defined time frame. ACLF is characterized by a state of deregulated inflammation. Initial cytokine burst presenting as SIRS, progression to CARS and associated immunoparalysis leads to sepsis and multi-organ failure. Early identification of the acute insult and mitigation of the same, use of nucleoside analogue in HBV-ACLF, steroid in severe alcoholic hepatitis, steroid in severe autoimmune hepatitis and/or bridging therapy lead to recovery, with a 90-day transplant-free survival rate of up to 50 %. First-week presentation is crucial concerning SIRS/sepsis, development, multiorgan failure and consideration of transplant. A protocol-based multi-disciplinary approach including critical care hepatology, early liver transplant before multi-organ involvement, or priority for organ allocation may improve the outcome. Presentation with extrahepatic organ involvement or inclusion of sepsis as an acute insult in definition restricts the therapy, i.e., liver transplant or bridging therapy, and needs serious consideration. Augmentation of regeneration, cell-based therapy, immunotherapy, and gut microbiota modulation are the emerging areas and need further research.

Acute on Chronic Liver Failure-What is in a 'Definition'?

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a recently recognized syndrome and its definition has been evolving over last two decades. Currently, there is no universal consensus about the definition as kind of cases being seen in the Western world appear to be somewhat different from those that are seen in Asia Pacific region. But every one agrees that definition of ACLF should include following components. (a) The status of pre-existing liver disease, (b) defining the acute insult that leads to rapid deterioration of liver status, (c) time frame during which the acute insult can lead to rapid deterioration, (d) the quantification and definition of liver failure status after deterioration, which will determine the severity of ACLF, and (e) prediction of prognosis after analyzing first four components in the short and long terms. There is some consensus that number of organ failures may be the main determinant of prognosis. Whatever the definition is being used, the central role that superadded infections play in ACLF cannot be denied and need to be tackled aggressively. Apart from that, recovery may be possible if the acute insult or the baseline disease is curable, i.e. with the use of nucleoside analogs for hepatitis B, and corticosteroids for severe autoimmune hepatitis. Development of dynamic criteria with observations in Hospital may improve our understanding of prognosis as well as our approach to the management of ACLF.

Overview on acute-on-chronic liver failure

Liver failure (LF) is defined as severe dysfunction in hepatic synthesis, detoxification, and metabolism induced by various etiologies. Clinical presentation of LF typically includes severe jaundice, coagulation disorder, hepatic encephalopathy, and ascites. LF can be classified into acute LF, acute-on-chronic LF (ACLF), and chronic LF. ACLF has been demonstrated as a distinct syndrome with unique clinical presentation and outcomes. The severity, curability, and reversibility of ACLF have attracted considerable attention. Remarkable developments in ACLF-related conception, diagnostic criteria, pathogenesis, and therapy have been achieved. However, this disease, especially its diagnostic criteria, remains controversial. In this paper, we systemically reviewed the current understanding of ACLF from its definition, etiology, pathophysiology, pathology, and clinical presentation to management by thoroughly comparing important findings between east and west countries, as well as those from other regions. We also discussed the controversies, challenges, and needs for future studies to promote the standardization and optimization of the diagnosis and treatment for ACLF.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: terminology, mechanisms and management

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a distinct clinical entity and differs from acute liver failure and decompensated cirrhosis in timing, presence of acute precipitant, course of disease and potential for unaided recovery. The definition involves outlining the acute and chronic insults to include a homogenous patient group with liver failure and an expected outcome in a specific timeframe. The pathophysiology of ACLF relates to persistent inflammation, immune dysregulation with initial wide-spread immune activation, a state of systematic inflammatory response syndrome and subsequent sepsis due to immune paresis. The disease severity and outcome can be predicted by both hepatic and extrahepatic organ failure(s). Clinical recovery is expected with the use of nucleoside analogues for hepatitis B, and steroids for severe alcoholic hepatitis and, possibly, severe autoimmune hepatitis. Artificial liver support systems help remove toxins and metabolites and serve as a bridge therapy before liver transplantation. Hepatic regeneration during ongoing liver failure, although challenging, is possible through the use of growth factors. Liver transplantation remains the definitive treatment with a good outcome. Pre-emptive antiviral agents for hepatitis B before chemotherapy to prevent viral reactivation and caution in using potentially hepatotoxic drugs can prevent the development of ACLF.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score does not predict outcomes of hepatitis B-induced acute-on-chronic liver failure in transplant recipients

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a severe clinical entity and liver transplantation is the only definitive therapy to salvage these patients. However, the timing of liver transplant for these patients remains unclear.

METHODS

Seventy-eight patients undergoing liver transplantation because of hepatitis B ACLF were retrospectively analyzed from June 2004 to December 2010. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score for the post-transplantation outcomes were calculated.

RESULTS

The median age was 44 years (range, 25-64 years), serum bilirubin 418.53 μmol/L (range, 112.90-971.40 μmol/L), INR 3.177 (range, 1.470-9.850), and creatinine 70.84 μmol/L (range, 12.39-844.1 μmol/L); the median MELD score was 32 (range, 21-53) and CTP score 12 (8-15). The AUCs of MELD and CTP scores for 3-month mortality were 0.581 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.421-0.742; sensitivity, 87.5%; specificity, 32.8%) and 0.547 (95% CI, 0.401-0.693; sensitivity, 75%; specificity, 41%), respectively. Meanwhile, there were no significant differences in hospital mortality (P = .252) or morbidity (P = .338) between the patients with MELD score ≥30 and those <30.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD score had no predictive ability for the outcomes of patients with hepatitis B ACLF after orthotopic liver transplantation.

Factors Associated with Mortality and Graft Failure in Liver Transplants: A Hierarchical Approach

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation has received increased attention in the medical field since the 1980s following the introduction of new immunosuppressants and improved surgical techniques. Currently, transplantation is the treatment of choice for patients with end-stage liver disease, and it has been expanded for other indications. Liver transplantation outcomes depend on donor factors, operating conditions, and the disease stage of the recipient. A retrospective cohort was studied to identify mortality and graft failure rates and their associated factors. All adult liver transplants performed in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, between 2006 and 2012 were studied.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A hierarchical Poisson multiple regression model was used to analyze factors related to mortality and graft failure in liver transplants. A total of 2,666 patients, 18 years or older, (1,482 males; 1,184 females) were investigated. Outcome variables included mortality and graft failure rates, which were grouped into a single binary variable called negative outcome rate. Additionally, donor clinical, laboratory, intensive care, and organ characteristics and recipient clinical data were analyzed. The mortality rate was 16.2 per 100 person-years (py) (95% CI: 15.1-17.3), and the graft failure rate was 1.8 per 100 py (95% CI: 1.5-2.2). Thus, the negative outcome rate was 18.0 per 100 py (95% CI: 16.9-19.2). The best risk model demonstrated that recipient creatinine ≥ 2.11 mg/dl [RR = 1.80 (95% CI: 1.56-2.08)], total bilirubin ≥ 2.11 mg/dl [RR = 1.48 (95% CI: 1.27-1.72)], Na+ ≥ 141.01 mg/dl [RR = 1.70 (95% CI: 1.47-1.97)], RNI ≥ 2.71 [RR = 1.64 (95% CI: 1.41-1.90)], body surface ≥ 1.98 [RR = 0.81 (95% CI: 0.68-0.97)] and donor age ≥ 54 years [RR = 1.28 (95% CI: 1.11-1.48)], male gender [RR = 1.19(95% CI: 1.03-1.37)], dobutamine use [RR = 0.54 (95% CI: 0.36-0.82)] and intubation ≥ 6 days [RR = 1.16 (95% CI: 1.10-1.34)] affected the negative outcome rate.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study confirms that both donor and recipient characteristics must be considered in post-transplant outcomes and prognostic scores. Our data demonstrated that recipient characteristics have a greater impact on post-transplant outcomes than donor characteristics. This new concept makes liver transplant teams to rethink about the limits in a MELD allocation system, with many teams competing with each other. The results suggest that although we have some concerns about the donors features, the recipient factors were heaviest predictors for bad outcomes.

Scoring systems predict the prognosis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: an evidence-based review

Acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure is a devastating condition that is associated with mortality rates of over 50% and is consequent to acute exacerbation of chronic hepatitis B in patients with previously diagnosed or undiagnosed chronic liver disease. Liver transplantation is the definitive treatment to lower mortality rate, but there is a great imbalance between donation and potential recipients. An early and accurate prognostic system based on the integration of laboratory indicators, clinical events and some mathematic logistic equations is needed to optimize treatment for patients. As parts of the scoring systems, the MELD was the most common and the donor-MELD was the most innovative for patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation. This review aims to highlight the various features and prognostic capabilities of these scoring systems.

A modified MELD model for Chinese pre-ACLF and ACLF patients and it reveals poor prognosis in pre-ACLF patients

Background & Aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is one of the most deadly, prevalent, and costly diseases in Asia. However, no prognostic model has been developed that is based specifically on data gathered from Asian patients with ACLF. The aim of the present study was to quantify the survival time of ACLF among Asians and to develop a prognostic model to estimate the probability of death related to ACLF.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study to analyze clinical data from 857 patients with ACLF/pre-ACLF who did not undergo liver transplantation. Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to estimate survival rates and survival affected factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC) was used to evaluate the performance of the models for predicting early mortality.

Results

The mortality rates among patients with pre-ACLF at 12 weeks and 24 weeks after diagnosis were 30.5% and 33.2%, respectively. The mortality rates among patients with early-stage ACLF at 12 weeks and 24 weeks after diagnosis were 33.9% and 37.1%, respectively. The difference in survival between pre-ACLF patients and patients in the early stage of ACLF was not statistically significant. The prognostic model identified 5 independent factors significantly associated with survival among patients with ACLF and pre-ACLF: the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score; age, hepatic encephalopathy; triglyceride level and platelet count.

Conclusion

The findings of the present study suggest that the Chinese diagnostic criteria of ACLF might be broadened, thus enabling implementation of a novel model to predict ACLF-related death after comprehensive medical treatment.

Survival outcomes of right-lobe living donor liver transplantation for patients with high Model for End-stage Liver Disease scores

BACKGROUND

Controversy exists over whether living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) should be offered to patients with high Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores. This study tried to determine whether a high MELD score would result in inferior outcomes of right-lobe LDLT.

METHODS

Among 411 consecutive patients who received right-lobe LDLT at our center, 143 were included in this study. The patients were divided into two groups according to their MELD scores: a high-score group (MELD score ≥25; n=75) and a low-score group (MELD score <25; n=68). Their demographic data and perioperative conditions were compared. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to identify risk factors affecting patient survival.

RESULTS

In the high-score group, more patients required preoperative intensive care unit admission (49.3% vs 2.9%; P<0.001), mechanical ventilation (21.3% vs 0%; P<0.001), or hemodialysis (13.3% vs 0%; P=0.005); the waiting time before LDLT was shorter (4 vs 66 days; P<0.001); more blood was transfused during operation (7 vs 2 units; P<0.001); patients stayed longer in the intensive care unit (6 vs 3 days; P<0.001) and hospital (21 vs 15 days; P=0.015) after transplantation; more patients developed early postoperative complications (69.3% vs 50.0%; P=0.018); and values of postoperative peak blood parameters were higher. However, the two groups had comparable hospital mortality. Graft survival and patient overall survival at one year (94.7% vs 95.6%; 95.9% vs 96.9%), three years (91.9% vs 92.6%; 93.2% vs 95.3%), and five years (90.2% vs 90.2%; 93.2% vs 95.3%) were also similar between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the high-score group had significantly more early postoperative complications, the two groups had comparable hospital mortality and similar satisfactory rates of graft survival and patient overall survival. Therefore, a high MELD score should not be a contraindication to right-lobe LDLT if donor risk and recipient benefit are taken into full account.

Liver transplantation in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients with high model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores: a single center experience of 100 consecutive cases

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a severe clinical condition for which liver transplantation (LT) is the only curative option. However, there are little published data on risk factors and outcomes of LT for ACLF.

METHODS

The objective of this study was to analyze preoperative, intraoperative, postoperative, and overall survival data on 100 consecutive cases with ACLF in order to try to determine for which patients LT are futile.

RESULTS

One hundred consecutive patients with pathology-confirmed ACLF who underwent LT from June 2004 to September 2012 were enrolled. The preoperative data showed that all patients were in a serious condition with a median high model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score of 32, total bilirubin of 440.20 umol/L, international normalized ratio (INR) of 3.012, and at least one organ dysfunction as assessed by a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score of ≥9. The patients had either deceased or a living donor LT with an overall mortality of 20%. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative survival rates were 76.8%, 75.6%, and 74.1%, respectively, and graft 1-, 3-, and 5-y accumulative survival rates were 73.3%, 72.1%, and 70.6%, respectively. However, the area under receiver operating characteristic of SOFA score, MELD score, as well as Child-Pugh score were 0.552, 0.547, and 0.547, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Both deceased and living donor LT are effective therapeutic options for patients with ACLF and the short- and long-term survival rates are encouraging. It is important to conduct more prospective and multi-center studies to define preoperatively which patients would benefit from LT.

A systematic review on prognostic indicators of acute on chronic liver failure and their predictive value for mortality

BACKGROUND

An early and proper diagnosis of acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF), together with the identification of indicators associated with disease severity is critical for outcome prediction and therapy.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically identify and summarize prognostic indicators for patients with ACLF and to evaluate the predictive value of these indicators.

METHODS

Embase and Ovid-Medline were searched for English-language articles. The search criteria focused on identifying clinical trials and observational studies reporting on indicators used for prediction of mortality in patients with ACLF.

RESULTS

Of 2382 studies identified, 19 were included for detailed analysis. Thirteen different definitions of ACLF were found. The main differences were related to acute deterioration in liver function, coagulopathy and hyperbilirubinaemia/jaundice. Seventy three prognostic indicators and their association with mortality were extracted and categorized into seven categories: general markers (n = 13), viral markers (n = 6), bio-markers (n = 22), hemodynamics (n = 1), morphology/histology (n = 17), scoring systems (n = 10) and treatments (n = 4).

CONCLUSIONS

The ambiguity and variability in the definition of ACLF and in its predictive indicators hampers comparability among studies. There is a need for a single uniform definition of ACLF. Also absence of a gold standard is an obstacle to render one indicator superior to another. The age, hepatic encephalopathy, model for end-stage liver disease score, total bilirubin and International normalized ratio (prothrombin time) appeared to be promising candidates for evaluation in future studies. The result of this review may be useful as a starting point in developing a standard list of indicators for clinical outcome that concur with the clinicians' subjective views on prognosis in ACLF.

Posttransplant mortality risk assessment for adult-to-adult right-lobe living donor liver recipients with benign end-stage liver disease

OBJECTIVE

A model for living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) outcomes, in concert with pretransplant disease severity assessment, would facilitate informed decision-making on both sides considering donation and transplantation. So far, however, few of studies have focused on models specifically for adult-to-adult right-lobe LDLT recipients with benign end-stage liver diseases. Therefore, we aimed to develop such a prognostic model based on easily obtainable and objective pretransplant characteristics.

METHODS

With data retrospectively collected on 120 recipients, we used Cox proportional-hazards regression to analyze six donor characteristics and 33 pretransplant recipient variables for correlation with posttransplant mortality. In both a modeling set and a prospective validation set with 30 recipients, the performances of the new Cox model, MELD, and MELD-Na+ were assessed by measuring both calibration ability and discriminative power with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and receiver operating characteristic analysis, respectively.

RESULTS

By univariate and multivariate analysis, donor age, serum total bilirubin, creatinine, and HBV-DNA level were significantly associated with posttransplant mortality. The Cox model, employing these four variables, yielded good calibration ability in the modeling set χ² = 2.465, p = 0.653) and the validation set χ² = 2.836, p = 0.586), and high discriminative power in the modeling set (c-statistic = 0.826, p = 0.001) and validation set (c-statistic = 0.816, p = 0.028). The calibration ability and discriminative power of MELD and MELD-Na+ in both sets were poor.

CONCLUSIONS

The newly derived Cox model was valuable in posttransplant mortality risk assessment for adult-to-adult right-lobe LDLT recipients with benign end-stage liver diseases.

Downgrading MELD improves the outcomes after liver transplantation in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

Background

High score of model for end-stage liver diseases (MELD) before liver transplantation (LT) indicates poor prognosis. Artificial liver support system (ALSS) has been proved to effectively improve liver and kidney functions, and thus reduce the MELD score. We aim to evaluate whether downgrading MELD score could improve patient survival after LT.

Methodology/Principal Findings

One hundred and twenty-six LT candidates with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure and MELD score ≥30 were included in this prospective study. Of the 126 patients, 42 received emergency LT within 72 h (ELT group) and the other 84 were given ALSS as salvage treatment. Of the 84 patients, 33 were found to have reduced MELD score (<30) on the day of LT (DGM group), 51 underwent LT with persistent high MELD score (N-DGM group). The median waiting time for a donor was 10 for DGM group and 9.5 days for N-DGM group. In N-DGM group there is a significantly higher overall mortality (43.1%) than that in ELT group (16.7%) and DGM group (15.2%). N-DGM (vs. ECT and DGM) was the only independent risk factor of overall mortality (P = 0.003). Age >40 years and the interval from last ALSS to LT >48 h were independent negative influence factors of downgrading MELD.

Conclusions/Significance

Downgrading MELD for liver transplant candidates with MELD score ≥30 was effective in improving patient prognosis. An appropriate ALSS treatment within 48 h prior to LT is potentially beneficial.

Comparison of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification and the model for end-stage liver disease score as predictors of the severity of the systemic inflammatory response in patients undergoing living-donor liver transplantation

The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification system and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in predicting the severity of the systemic inflammatory response in living-donor liver transplantation patients. Recipients of liver graft were allocated to a recipient group (n = 39) and healthy donors to a donor group (n = 42). The association between the CTP classification, the MELD scores and perioperative cytokine concentrations in the recipient group was evaluated. The pro-inflammatory cytokines measured included interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α; the anti-inflammatory cytokines measured included IL-10 and IL-4. Cytokine concentrations were quantified using sandwich enzyme-linked immunoassays. The IL-6, TNF-α, and IL-10 concentrations in the recipient group were significantly higher than those in healthy donor group patients. All preoperative cytokine levels, except IL-6, increased in relation to the severity of liver disease, as measured by the CTP classification. Additionally, all cytokine levels, except IL-6, were significantly correlated preoperatively with MELD scores. However, the correlations diminished during the intraoperative period. The CTP classification and the MELD score are equally reliable in predicting the severity of the systemic inflammatory response, but only during the preoperative period.

Multicenter study of plasma diafiltration in patients with acute liver failure

Plasma diafiltration (PDF) is a blood purification therapy in which simple plasma exchange (PE) is performed using a selective membrane plasma separator while the dialysate flows outside the hollow fibers. A prospective, multicenter study was undertaken to evaluate the changes in bilirubin, IL-18, and cystatin C, as well as the 28-day and 90-day survival rates, with the use of PDF according to the level of severity as measured by the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Twenty-one patients with liver failure were studied: 10 patients had fulminant hepatitis and PDF therapies were performed 28 times; 11 had acute liver failure with the therapy performed 96 times. Levels of total bilirubin, IL-18, and cystatin C decreased significantly after treatment. The 28-day survival rate was 70.0% and that at 90 days was 16.7%. According to the severity of the MELD score, each of the results compared well with the use of Molecular Adsorbent Recirculating System or Prometheus therapy. In conclusion, PDF appears to be one of the most useful blood purification therapies for use in cases of acute liver failure in terms of medical economics and the removal of water-soluble and albumin-bound toxins.

Pre-transplant MELD and sodium MELD scores are poor predictors of graft failure and mortality after liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Incorporating serum sodium concentrations into the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score may increase its sensitivity for identifying priority patients for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). We, therefore, evaluated and compared the ability of the sodium MELD and MELD scores to predict graft and patient survival after OLT.

METHODS

The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) registry includes all US adult OLTs performed between January 2000 and August 2008. For 15,156 patients who met inclusion criteria, MELD score was calculated; for 6,193 patients whose serum sodium concentrations was between 120 and 135 mEq/dl, immediately before OLT, sodium MELD score was calculated. The corresponding hazard ratios (HR) for MELD and sodium MELD on graft and patient survival were assessed using the Cox proportional hazards regression models. The concordance probability estimate (CPE) was used to evaluate predictive ability of each time-to-event model.

RESULTS

MELD and sodium MELD scores were both significant predictors in univariable Cox regression models for graft failure [HR (95% CI) for every 10 units increase in the predictor: 1.10 (1.04, 1.17), P = 0.001, and 1.05 (1.00, 1.10), P = 0.03, respectively], and for mortality (1.14 (1.07, 1.21), P < 0.001, and 1.07 (1.02, 1.12), P = 0.01, respectively), with CPE of 0.52-0.53.

CONCLUSION

While MELD and sodium MELD were each significantly associated with survival after OLT, their predictive abilities were poor. The sodium MELD score does not improve prediction accuracy over the MELD score. Weak prediction may result from unaccounted variability in recipient and donor status, as well as surgical and postoperative factors.

Impact of MELD allocation policy on survival outcomes after liver transplantation: a single-center study in northeast Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the impact of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) allocation policy on survival outcomes after liver transplantation (LT).

INTRODUCTION

Considering that an ideal system of grafts allocation should also ensure improved survival after transplantation, changes in allocation policies need to be evaluated in different contexts as an evolutionary process.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was carried out among patients who underwent LT at the University of Pernambuco. Two groups of patients transplanted before and after the MELD allocation policy implementation were identified and compared using early postoperative mortality and post-LT survival as end-points.

RESULTS

Overall, early postoperative mortality did not significantly differ between cohorts (16.43% vs. 8.14%; p = 0.112). Although at 6 and 36-months the difference between pre-vs. post-MELD survival was only marginally significant (p = 0.066 and p = 0.063; respectively), better short, medium and long-term post-LT survival were observed in the post-MELD period. Subgroups analysis showed special benefits to patients categorized as nonhepatocellular carcinoma (non-HCC) and moderate risk, as determined by MELD score (15-20).

DISCUSSION

This study ensured a more robust estimate of how the MELD policy affected post-LT survival outcomes in Brazil and was the first to show significantly better survival after this new policy was implemented. Additionally, we explored some potential reasons for our divergent survival outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Better survival outcomes were observed in this study after implementation of the MELD criterion, particularly amongst patients categorized as non-HCC and moderate risk by MELD scoring. Governmental involvement in organ transplantation was possibly the main reason for improved survival.

Prediction of survival after liver transplantation for chronic severe hepatitis B based on preoperative prognostic scores: a single center's experience in China

Background

The aim of this study was to estimate the utility of a preoperative model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score in predicting the prognosis after othotopic liver transplantation (OLT) for chronic severe hepatitis B (CSHB) and explore the prognostic factors.

Methods

The outcome of 137 patients who underwent OLT using donors after cardiac death (DCDs) for CSHB in our center was reviewed retrospectively. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method; the log-rank test was used for univariate analysis; and the Cox proportional hazards regression model was used for prognostic factors screening.

Results

The overall mortality rate was 33.6% (46/137); and 1-month, 6-month, 1-year, and 5-year patient survival rates were 75.8, 72.0, 71.0, and 60.1%, respectively. Most patients (33/46) died during the first month after OLT. The area under the curve values generated by the receiver operating characteristics curves were 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72–0.92] and 0.68 (95% CI 0.58–0.79), respectively (P < 0.01), for the MELD and CTP models in predicting 1-month mortality after OLT. Patients with a preoperative MELD score <33.8 or a CTP score <12.5 had significantly better prognosis than those with higher scores (P < 0.05). Other mortality predictors include hepatic encephalopathy, preoperative infection, serum creatinine ≥1.5 mg/dl.

Conclusions

The MELD score was more efficient than the CTP score for evaluating the short-term prognosis in patients with CSHB undergoing OLT using DCDs, which should be taken into consideration during graft allocation.

Prediction of the prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure using the model for end-stage liver disease scoring system and a novel logistic regression model

The objective of this study was to determine the predictive value of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACLF-HBV), and to establish a new model for predicting the prognosis of ACLF-HBV. A total of 204 adult patients with ACLF-HBV were retrospectively recruited between July 1, 2002 and December 31, 2004. The MELD scores were calculated according to the widely accepted formula. The 3-month mortality was calculated. The validity of the MELD model was determined by means of the concordance (c) statistic. Clinical data and biochemical values were included in the multivariate logistic regression analysis based on which the regression model for predicting prognosis was established. The receiver-operating characteristic curves were drawn for the MELD scoring system and the new regression model and the areas under the curves (AUC) were compared by the z-test. The 3-month mortality rate was 57.8%. The mean MELD score for the patients who died was significantly greater than those who survived beyond 3 months (28.7 vs 22.4, P = 0.003). The concordance (c) statistic (equivalent to the AUC) for the MELD scoring system predicting 3-month mortality was 0.709 (SE = 0.036, P < 0.001, 95% confidence interval 0.638-0.780). The independent factors predicting prognosis were hepatorenal syndrome (P < 0.001), liver cirrhosis (P = 0.009), HBeAg (P = 0.013), albumin (P = 0.028) and prothrombin activity (P = 0.011) as identified in multivariate logistic regression analysis. The regression model that was constructed by the logistic regression analysis produced a greater prognostic value (c = 0.891) than the MELD scoring system (z = 4.333, P < 0.001). The MELD scoring system is a promising and useful predictor for 3-month mortality of ACLF-HBV patients. Hepatorenal syndrome, liver cirrhosis, HBeAg, albumin and prothrombin activity are independent factors affecting the 3-month mortality. The newly established logistic regression model appears to be superior to the MELD scoring system in predicting 3-month mortality in patients with ACLF-HBV.

A randomized pilot trial of oral branched-chain amino acids in early cirrhosis: validation using prognostic markers for pre-liver transplant status

Because of the chronic shortage of liver donors, hepatologists are required to prolong the liver transplant waiting period by preserving the hepatic reserve of scheduled recipients. This study examined the effectiveness of oral branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs), using outcome markers indicating pretransplant hepatic reserve. Fifty-six consecutive eligible patients with Child class A cirrhosis without major complications were randomly assigned to receive oral BCAA granules (12.45 g/day) for least 1 year or no BCAAs. Differences between groups in the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, asialoscintigraphic clearance index (CI), and complications were examined. Of 50 remaining patients, 27 received BCAAs, and 23 received no BCAAs (mean duration, 3.2 years). The mean annual changes in the MELD score, CTP score, and asialoscintigraphic CI were smaller in the BCAA group than in the control group (-0.06 +/- 0.23 versus 0.10 +/- 0.40, P = 0.024, 0.06 +/- 0.30 versus 0.30 +/- 0.48, P = 0.037, and 0.00 +/- 0.02 versus 0.02 +/- 0.04, P = 0.040, respectively). The mean annual changes in the serum total bilirubin and the serum albumin in the BCAA group were better preserved than those in the control group (-0.07 +/- 0.20 versus 0.12 +/- 0.18 mg/dL, P < 0.001, and 0.07 +/- 0.13 versus -0.02 +/- 0.19 g/dL, P = 0.005, respectively); other laboratory variables were not significant. The incidence of overall major cirrhotic complications was lower in the BCAA group than in the control group [14.8% (4 of 27 patients) versus 30.4% (7 of 23 patients) at 3 years, P = 0.043]; only ascites was significant individually. In conclusion, early interventional oral BCAAs might prolong the liver transplant waiting period by preserving hepatic reserve in cirrhosis.

Clinical features and predictors of outcome in acute hepatitis A and hepatitis E virus hepatitis on cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Acute hepatitis A and E are recognized triggers of hepatic decompensation in patients with cirrhosis, particularly from the Indian subcontinent. However, the resulting acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has not been well characterized and no large studies are available. Our study aimed to evaluate the clinical profile and predictors of 3-month mortality in patients with this distinctive form of liver failure.

METHODS

ACLF was diagnosed in patients with acute hepatitis A or E [abrupt rise in serum bilirubin and/or alanine aminotransferase with positive immunoglobulin M anti-hepatitis A virus (HAV)/anti-hepatitis E virus (HEV)] presenting with clinical evidence of liver failure (significant ascites and/or hepatic encephalopathy) and clinical, biochemical, endoscopic (oesophageal varices at least grade II in size), ultrasonographical (presence of nodular irregular liver with porto-systemic collaterals) or histological evidence of cirrhosis. Clinical and laboratory profile were evaluated, predictors of 3-month mortality were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression and a prognostic model was constructed. Receiver-operating curves were plotted to measure performance of the present prognostic model, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score.

RESULTS

ACLF occurred in 121 (3.75%) of 3220 patients (mean age 36.3+/-18.0 years; M:F 85:36) with liver cirrhosis admitted from January 2000 to June 2006. It was due to HEV in 80 (61.1%), HAV in 33 (27.2%) and both in 8 (6.1%). The underlying liver cirrhosis was due to HBV (37), alcohol (17), Wilson's disease (8), HCV (5), autoimmune (6), Budd-Chiari syndrome (2), haemochromatosis (2) and was cryptogenic in the rest (42). Common presentations were jaundice (100%), ascites (78%) and hepatic encephalopathy (55%). Mean (SD) CTP score was 11.4+/-1.6 and mean MELD score was 28.6+/-9.06. Three-month mortality was 54 (44.6%). Complications seen were sepsis in 42 (31.8%), renal failure in 45 (34%), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in 27 (20.5%), UGI bleeding in 15(11%) and hyponatraemia in 50 (41.3%). On univariate analysis, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, renal failure, GI bleeding, total bilirubin, hyponatraemia and coagulopathy were significant predictors of mortality. Multivariate analysis revealed grades 3 and 4 HE [odds ratio (OR 32.1)], hyponatraemia (OR 9.2) and renal failure (OR 16.8) as significant predictors of 3-month mortality and a prognostic model using these predictors was constructed. Areas under the curve for the present predicted prognostic model, MELD, and CTP were 0.952, 0.941 and 0.636 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

ACLF due to hepatitis A or E super infection results in significant short-term mortality. The predictors of ominous outcome include grades 3 and 4 encephalopathy, hyponatraemia and renal failure. Present prognostic model and MELD scoring system were better predictors of 3-month outcome than CTP score in these patients. Early recognition of those with dismal prognosis may permit timely use of liver replacement/supportive therapies.