Adaptive virulence evolution: the good old fitness-based approach

Ecological and evolutionary perspectives advance understanding of mycobacterial diseases

Predicting the outbreak of infectious diseases and designing appropriate preventive health actions require interdisciplinary research into the processes that drive exposure to and transmission of disease agents. In the case of mycobacterial diseases, the epidemiological understanding of the scientific community hitherto was based on the clinical studies of infections in vertebrates. To evaluate the information gained by comprehensively accounting for the ecological and evolutionary constraints, we conducted literature searches assessing the role of mycobacteria interactions with non-vertebrate species in the origin of their pathogenicity and variations in disease risk. The reviewed literature challenges the current theory of person-to-person transmission for several mycobacterial infections. Furthermore, the findings suggest that diverse non-vertebrate organisms influence virulence, mediate transmission, and contribute to pathogen abundance in relation to vertebrate exposure. We advocate that an ecological and evolutionary framework provides novel insights to support a more comprehensive understanding of the prevention and management of diseases in vertebrates.

Fungal Disease Tolerance with a Focus on Wheat: A Review

In this paper, an extensive review of the literature is provided examining the significance of tolerance to fungal diseases in wheat amidst the escalating global demand for wheat and threats from environmental shifts and pathogen movements. The current comprehensive reliance on agrochemicals for disease management poses risks to food safety and the environment, exacerbated by the emergence of fungicide resistance. While resistance traits in wheat can offer some protection, these traits do not guarantee the complete absence of losses during periods of vigorous or moderate disease development. Furthermore, the introduction of individual resistance genes into wheat monoculture exerts selection pressure on pathogen populations. These disadvantages can be addressed or at least mitigated with the cultivation of tolerant varieties of wheat. Research in this area has shown that certain wheat varieties, susceptible to severe infectious diseases, are still capable of achieving high yields. Through the analysis of the existing literature, this paper explores the manifestations and quantification of tolerance in wheat, discussing its implications for integrated disease management and breeding strategies. Additionally, this paper addresses the ecological and evolutionary aspects of tolerance in the pathogen-plant host system, emphasizing its potential to enhance wheat productivity and sustainability.

The Epistemology of Bacterial Virulence Factor Characterization

The field of microbial pathogenesis seeks to identify the agents and mechanisms responsible for disease causation. Since Robert Koch introduced postulates that were used to guide the characterization of microbial pathogens, technological advances have substantially increased the capacity to rapidly identify a causative infectious agent. Research efforts currently focus on causation at the molecular level with a search for virulence factors (VFs) that contribute to different stages of the infectious process. We note that the quest to identify and characterize VFs sometimes lacks scientific rigor, and this suggests a need to examine the epistemology of VF characterization. We took this premise as an opportunity to explore the epistemology of VF characterization. In this perspective, we discuss how the characterization of various gene products that evolved to facilitate bacterial survival in the broader environment have potentially been prematurely mischaracterized as VFs that contribute to pathogenesis in the context of human biology. Examples of the reasoning that can affect misinterpretation, or at least a premature assignment of mechanistic causation, are provided. Our aim is to refine the categorization of VFs by emphasizing a broader biological view of their origin.

An Agent-Based Model Shows How Mixed Infections Drive Multiyear Pathotype Dynamics in a Plant-Virus System

Mathematical models are widely used to understand the evolution and epidemiology of plant pathogens under a variety of scenarios. Here, we used this approach to analyze the effects of different traits intrinsic and extrinsic to plant-virus interactions on the dynamics of virus pathotypes in genetically heterogeneous plant-virus systems. For this, we propose an agent-based epidemiological model that includes epidemiologically significant pathogen life-history traits related to virulence, transmission, and survival in the environment and allows for integrating long- and short-distance transmission, primary and secondary infections, and within-host pathogen competition in mixed infections. The study focuses on the tobamovirus-pepper pathosystem. Model simulations allowed us to integrate pleiotropic effects of resistance-breaking mutations on different virus life-history traits into the net costs of resistance breaking, allowing for predictions on multiyear pathotype dynamics. We also explored the effects of two control measures, the use of host resistance and roguing of symptomatic plants, that modify epidemiological attributes of the pathogens to understand how their populations will respond to evolutionary pressures. One major conclusion points to the importance of pathogen competition within mixed-infected hosts as a component of the overall fitness of each pathogen that, thus, drives their multiyear dynamics.

Manipulating multi-level selection in a fungal entomopathogen reveals social conflicts and a method for improving biocontrol traits

Changes in parasite virulence are commonly expected to lead to trade-offs in other life history traits that can affect fitness. Understanding these trade-offs is particularly important if we want to manipulate the virulence of microbial biological control agents. Theoretically, selection across different spatial scales, i.e. between- and within-hosts, shapes these trade-offs. However, trade-offs are also dependent on parasite biology. Despite their applied importance the evolution of virulence in fungal parasites is poorly understood: virulence can be unstable in culture and commonly fails to increase in simple passage experiments. We hypothesized that manipulating selection intensity at different scales would reveal virulence trade-offs in a fungal pathogen of aphids, Akanthomyces muscarius. Starting with a genetically diverse stock we selected for speed of kill, parasite yield or infectivity by manipulating competition within and between hosts and between-populations of hosts over 7 rounds of infection. We characterized ancestral and evolved lineages by whole genome sequencing and by measuring virulence, growth rate, sporulation and fitness. While several lineages showed increases in virulence, we saw none of the trade-offs commonly found in obligately-killing parasites. Phenotypically similar lineages within treatments often shared multiple single-nucleotide variants, indicating strong convergent evolution. The most dramatic phenotypic changes were in timing of sporulation and spore production in vitro. We found that early sporulation led to reduced competitive fitness but could increase yield of spores on media, a trade-off characteristic of social conflict. Notably, the selection regime with strongest between-population competition and lowest genetic diversity produced the most consistent shift to early sporulation, as predicted by social evolution theory. Multi-level selection therefore revealed social interactions novel to fungi and showed that these biocontrol agents have the genomic flexibility to improve multiple traits-virulence and spore production-that are often in conflict in other parasites.

Resource asynchrony and landscape homogenization as drivers of virulence evolution: The case of a directly transmitted disease in a social host

Throughout the last decades, the emergence of zoonotic diseases and the frequency of disease outbreaks have increased substantially, fuelled by habitat encroachment and vectors overlapping with more hosts due to global change. The virulence of pathogens is one key trait for successful invasion. In order to understand how global change drivers such as habitat homogenization and climate change drive pathogen virulence evolution, we adapted an established individual-based model of host-pathogen dynamics. Our model simulates a population of social hosts affected by a directly transmitted evolving pathogen in a dynamic landscape. Pathogen virulence evolution results in multiple strains in the model that differ in their transmission capability and lethality. We represent the effects of global change by simulating environmental changes both in time (resource asynchrony) and space (homogenization). We found an increase in pathogenic virulence and a shift in strain dominance with increasing landscape homogenization. Our model further indicated that lower virulence is dominant in fragmented landscapes, although pulses of highly virulent strains emerged under resource asynchrony. While all landscape scenarios favoured co-occurrence of low- and high-virulent strains, the high-virulence strains capitalized on the possibility for transmission when host density increased and were likely to become dominant. With asynchrony likely to occur more often due to global change, our model showed that a subsequent evolution towards lower virulence could lead to some diseases becoming endemic in their host populations.

The microbiota conditions a gut milieu that selects for wild-type Salmonella Typhimurium virulence

Salmonella Typhimurium elicits gut inflammation by the costly expression of HilD-controlled virulence factors. This inflammation alleviates colonization resistance (CR) mediated by the microbiota and thereby promotes pathogen blooms. However, the inflamed gut-milieu can also select for hilD mutants, which cannot elicit or maintain inflammation, therefore causing a loss of the pathogen's virulence. This raises the question of which conditions support the maintenance of virulence in S. Typhimurium. Indeed, it remains unclear why the wild-type hilD allele is dominant among natural isolates. Here, we show that microbiota transfer from uninfected or recovered hosts leads to rapid clearance of hilD mutants that feature attenuated virulence, and thereby contributes to the preservation of the virulent S. Typhimurium genotype. Using mouse models featuring a range of microbiota compositions and antibiotic- or inflammation-inflicted microbiota disruptions, we found that irreversible disruption of the microbiota leads to the accumulation of hilD mutants. In contrast, in models with a transient microbiota disruption, selection for hilD mutants was prevented by the regrowing microbiota community dominated by Lachnospirales and Oscillospirales. Strikingly, even after an irreversible microbiota disruption, microbiota transfer from uninfected donors prevented the rise of hilD mutants. Our results establish that robust S. Typhimurium gut colonization hinges on optimizing its manipulation of the host: A transient and tempered microbiota perturbation is favorable for the pathogen to both flourish in the inflamed gut and also minimize loss of virulence. Moreover, besides conferring CR, the microbiota may have the additional consequence of maintaining costly enteropathogen virulence mechanisms.

Per-pathogen virulence of HIV-1 subtypes A, C and D

HIV-1 subtypes differ in their clinical manifestations and the speed in which they spread. In particular, the frequency of subtype C is increasing relative to subtypes A and D. We investigate whether HIV-1 subtypes A, C and D differ in their per-pathogen virulence and to what extend this explains the difference in spread between these subtypes. We use data from the hormonal contraception and HIV-1 genital shedding and disease progression among women with primary HIV infection study. For each study participant, we determine the set-point viral load value, CD4⁺ T cell level after primary infection and CD4⁺ T cell decline. Based on both the CD4⁺ T cell count after primary infection and CD4⁺ T cell decline, we estimate the time until AIDS. We then obtain our newly introduced measure of virulence as the inverse of the estimated time until AIDS. After fitting a model to the measured virulence and set-point viral load values, we tested if this relation varies per subtype. We found that subtype C has a significantly higher per-pathogen virulence than subtype A. Based on an evolutionary model, we then hypothesize that differences in the primary length of infection period cause the observed variation in the speed of spread of the subtypes.

Do pathogens always evolve to be less virulent? The virulence–transmission trade-off in light of the COVID-19 pandemic

The direction the evolution of virulence takes in connection with any pathogen is a long-standing question. Formerly, it was theorized that pathogens should always evolve to be less virulent. As observations were not in line with this theoretical outcome, new theories emerged, chief among them the transmission–virulence trade-off hypotheses, which predicts an intermediate level of virulence as the endpoint of evolution. At the moment, we are very much interested in the future evolution of COVID-19’s virulence. Here, we show that the disease does not fulfill all the assumptions of the hypothesis. In the case of COVID-19, a higher viral load does not mean a higher risk of death; immunity is not long-lasting; other hosts can act as reservoirs for the virus; and death as a consequence of viral infection does not shorten the infectious period. Consequently, we cannot predict the short- or long-term evolution of the virulence of COVID-19.

Death is overrated: the potential role of detection in driving virulence evolution

A common assumption in the evolution of virulence theory literature is that pathogens transmit better when they exploit their host more heavily, but by doing so, they impose a greater risk of killing their host, thus truncating infectious periods and reducing their own opportunities for transmission. Here, I derive an equation for the magnitude of this cost in terms of the infection fatality rate, and in doing so, I show that there are many cases where mortality costs are too small to plausibly constrain increases in host exploitation by pathogens. I propose that pathogen evolution may often be constrained by detection costs, whereby hosts alter their behaviour when infection is detectable, and thus reduce pathogen opportunities for onward transmission. I then derive an inequality to illustrate when mortality costs or detection costs impose stronger constraints on pathogen evolution, and I use empirical data from the literature to demonstrate that detection costs are frequently large in both human and animal populations. Finally, I give examples of how evolutionary predictions can change depending on whether costs of host exploitation are borne out through mortality or detection.

The endosymbiont and the second bacterial circle of entomopathogenic nematodes

Single host-symbiont interactions should be reconsidered from the perspective of the pathobiome. We revisit here the interactions between entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) and their microbiota. We first describe the discovery of these EPNs and their bacterial endosymbionts. We also consider EPN-like nematodes and their putative symbionts. Recent high-throughput sequencing studies have shown that EPNs and EPN-like nematodes are also associated with other bacterial communities, referred to here as the second bacterial circle of EPNs. Current findings suggest that some members of this second bacterial circle contribute to the pathogenic success of nematodes. We suggest that the endosymbiont and the second bacterial circle delimit an EPN pathobiome.

Age-dependent virulence of human pathogens

Host age is often evoked as an intrinsic factor aggravating the outcome of host-pathogen interactions. However, the shape of the relationship between age and infection-induced mortality might differ among pathogens, with specific clinical and ecological traits making some pathogens more likely to exert higher mortality in older hosts. Here, we used a large dataset on age-specific case fatality rate (CFR) of 28 human infectious diseases to investigate i) whether age is consistently associated to increased CFR, ii) whether pathogen characteristics might explain higher CFR in older adults. We found that, for most of the infectious diseases considered here, CFR slightly decreased during the first years of life and then steeply increased in older adults. Pathogens inducing diseases with long-lasting symptoms had the steepest increase of age-dependent CFR. Similarly, bacterial diseases and emerging viruses were associated with increasing mortality risk in the oldest age classes. On the contrary, we did not find evidence suggesting that systemic infections have steeper slopes between CFR and age; similarly, the relationship between age and CFR did not differ according to the pathogen transmission mode. Overall, our analysis shows that age is a key trait affecting infection-induced mortality rate in humans, and that the extent of the aggravating effect on older adults depends on some key traits, such as the duration of illness.

Mortality due to infectious diseases varies tremendously among infectious agents, with some pathogens producing no mortality, and others being often associated with a fatal outcome. Such variability depends on characteristics of the pathogen, the host and the environment where hosts and pathogens interact. Age is one of the main host traits that accounts for differences in infection-induced mortality (with mortality being higher at the extremes of the age spectrum). Here, we used a large dataset on 28 human infectious diseases to explore the clinical and ecological traits that might account for differences in age-specific mortality risk. We found that pathogens producing long-lasting disease symptoms exert the highest mortality risk in the older adults. Similarly, emerging pathogens are also associated with higher mortality risk in the oldest age classes. These results confirm that age is a key trait affecting infection-induced mortality rate in humans, and show that the extent of the aggravating effect in older adults depends on some key traits, such as the duration of illness.

Cyanophages from a less virulent clade dominate over their sister clade in global oceans

Environmental virus communities are highly diverse. However, the infection physiology underlying the evolution of diverse phage lineages and their ecological consequences are largely unknown. T7-like cyanophages are abundant in nature and infect the marine unicellular cyanobacteria, Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus, important primary producers in the oceans. Viruses belonging to this genus are divided into two distinct phylogenetic clades: clade A and clade B. These viruses have narrow host-ranges with clade A phages primarily infecting Synechococcus genotypes, while clade B phages are more diverse and can infect either Synechococcus or Prochlorococcus genotypes. Here we investigated infection properties (life history traits) and environmental abundances of these two clades of T7-like cyanophages. We show that clade A cyanophages have more rapid infection dynamics, larger burst sizes and greater virulence than clade B cyanophages. However, clade B cyanophages were at least 10-fold more abundant in all seasons, and infected more cyanobacteria, than clade A cyanophages in the Red Sea. Models predicted that steady-state cyanophage abundances, infection frequency, and virus-induced mortality, peak at intermediate virulence values. Our findings indicate that differences in infection properties are reflected in virus phylogeny at the clade level. They further indicate that infection properties, together with differences in subclade diversity and host repertoire, have important ecological consequences with the less aggressive, more diverse virus clade having greater ecological impacts.

On maternity and the stronger immune response in women

Medical research reports that women often exhibit stronger immune responses than men, while pathogens tend to be more virulent in men. Current explanations cannot account for this pattern, creating an obstacle for our understanding of infectious-disease outcomes and the incidence of autoimmune diseases. We offer an alternative explanation that relies on a fundamental difference between the sexes: maternity and the opportunities it creates for transmission of pathogens from mother to child (vertical transmission). Our explanation relies on a mathematical model of the co-evolution of host immunocompetence and pathogen virulence. Here, we show that when there is sufficient vertical transmission co-evolution leads women to defend strongly against temperate pathogens and men to defend weakly against aggressive pathogens, in keeping with medical observations. From a more applied perspective, we argue that limiting vertical transmission of infections would alleviate the disproportionate incidence of autoimmune diseases in women over evolutionary time.

Study on the virulence evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and the trend of the epidemics of COVID-19

This is the first attempt to investigate the effects of the factors related to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the physical condition of the public on virulence evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and the trend of the epidemics of COVID-19 under an adaptive dynamics framework. Qualitative agreement of the prediction on the epidemics of COVID-19 with the actual situations convinced the rationality of the present model. The study showed that enhancing both NPIs (including public vigilance, quarantine measures, and hospitalization) and the physical condition of the public (including susceptibility and recovery speed) contributed to decreasing the prevalence of COVID-19 but only increasing public vigilance and decreasing the susceptibility of the public could also reduce the virulence of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, controlling the contact rate and infection rate was the key to control not only the epidemic scale of COVID-19 but also the extent of its harm. On the other hand, the best way to control the epidemics was to increase the public vigilance and physical condition because both of them could reduce the prevalence and case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19. In addition, the enhancement of quarantine measures and hospitalization could bring the (slight) increase in the CFR of COVID-19.

Parasite-induced shifts in host movement may explain the transient coexistence of high- and low-pathogenic disease strains

Many parasites induce decreased host movement, known as lethargy, which can impact disease spread and the evolution of virulence. Mathematical models have investigated virulence evolution when parasites cause host death, but disease-induced decreased host movement has received relatively less attention. Here, we consider a model where, due to the within-host parasite replication rate, an infected host can become lethargic and shift from a moving to a resting state, where it can die. We find that when the lethargy and disease-induced mortality costs to the parasites are not high, then evolutionary bistability can arise, and either moderate or high virulence can evolve depending on the initial virulence and the magnitude of mutation. These results suggest, firstly, the coexistence of strains with different virulence, which may explain the transient coexistence of low- and high-pathogenic strains of avian influenza viruses, and secondly, that medical interventions to treat the symptoms of lethargy or prevent disease-induced host deaths can result in a large jump in virulence and the rapid evolution of high virulence. In complement to existing results that show bistability when hosts are heterogeneous at the population level, we show that evolutionary bistability may arise due to transmission heterogeneity at the individual host level.

The role of a programmatic immune response on the evolution of pathogen traits

In modelling pathogen evolution during epidemics, it is important to understand the interactions between within-host infection dynamics and between-host pathogen transmission. Multiscale models often assume an immune response that is highly responsive to pathogen dynamics. Empirical evidence, however, suggests that the immune response in acute infections is triggered and programmatic. This leads to somewhat more predictable infection trajectories where transition times and, consequently, the infectious window are non-exponentially distributed. Here, we develop a within-host model where the immune response is triggered by pathogen growth but otherwise develops independently, and use this to obtain analytic expressions for the infectious period and peak pathogen load. This allows us to model the basic reproductive number in terms of explicit functional relationships among within-host traits including the growth rate of the pathogen. We find that the dependence of pathogen load and the infectious window on within-host parameters constrains the evolution of the pathogen growth rate. At low growth rate, selection favours a higher pathogen load and therefore increasing pathogen growth rate. At high growth rates, selection for a longer infectious window trades off against selection against the effects of virulence. At intermediate growth rates the basic reproductive number is relatively insensitive to changes in the growth rate. The resulting "flat" region of the pathogen fitness landscape is due to the stability of the programmatic immune response in clearing the infection.

Viruses associated with ill health in wild chimpanzees

Viral infection is a major cause of ill health in wild chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes), but most evidence to date has come from conspicuous disease outbreaks with high morbidity and mortality. To examine the relationship between viral infection and ill health during periods not associated with disease outbreaks, we conducted a longitudinal study of wild eastern chimpanzees (P. t. schweinfurthii) in the Kanyawara and Ngogo communities of Kibale National Park, Uganda. We collected standardized, observational health data for 4 years and then used metagenomics to characterize gastrointestinal viromes (i.e., all viruses recovered from fecal samples) in individual chimpanzees before and during episodes of clinical disease. We restricted our analyses to viruses thought to infect mammals or primarily associated with mammals, discarding viruses associated with nonmammalian hosts. We found 18 viruses (nine of which were previously identified in this population) from at least five viral families. Viral richness (number of viruses per sample) did not vary by health status. By contrast, total viral load (normalized proportion of sequences mapping to viruses) was significantly higher in ill individuals compared with healthy individuals. Furthermore, when ill, Kanyawara chimpanzees exhibited higher viral loads than Ngogo chimpanzees, and males, but not females, exhibited higher infection rates with certain viruses and higher total viral loads as they aged. Post-hoc analyses, including the use of a machine-learning classification method, indicated that one virus, salivirus (Picornaviridae), was the main contributor to health-related and community-level variation in viral loads. Another virus, chimpanzee stool-associated virus (chisavirus; unclassified Picornavirales), was associated with ill health at Ngogo but not at Kanyawara. Chisavirus, chimpanzee adenovirus (Adenoviridae), and bufavirus (Parvoviridae) were also associated with increased age in males. Associations with sex and age are consistent with the hypothesis that nonlethal viral infections cumulatively reflect or contribute to senescence in long-lived species such as chimpanzees.

Long-term adaptation following influenza A virus host shifts results in increased within-host viral fitness due to higher replication rates, broader dissemination within the respiratory epithelium and reduced tissue damage

The mechanisms and consequences of genome evolution on viral fitness following host shifts are poorly understood. In addition, viral fitness -the ability of an organism to reproduce and survive- is multifactorial and thus difficult to quantify. Influenza A viruses (IAVs) circulate broadly among wild birds and have jumped into and become endemic in multiple mammalian hosts, including humans, pigs, dogs, seals, and horses. H3N8 equine influenza virus (EIV) is an endemic virus of horses that originated in birds and has been circulating uninterruptedly in equine populations since the early 1960s. Here, we used EIV to quantify changes in infection phenotype associated to viral fitness due to genome-wide changes acquired during long-term adaptation. We performed experimental infections of two mammalian cell lines and equine tracheal explants using the earliest H3N8 EIV isolated (A/equine/Uruguay/63 [EIV/63]), and A/equine/Ohio/2003 (EIV/2003), a monophyletic descendant of EIV/63 isolated 40 years after the emergence of H3N8 EIV. We show that EIV/2003 exhibits increased resistance to interferon, enhanced viral replication, and a more efficient cell-to-cell spread in cells and tissues. Transcriptomics analyses revealed virus-specific responses to each virus, mainly affecting host immunity and inflammation. Image analyses of infected equine respiratory explants showed that despite replicating at higher levels and spreading over larger areas of the respiratory epithelium, EIV/2003 induced milder lesions compared to EIV/63, suggesting that adaptation led to reduced tissue pathogenicity. Our results reveal previously unknown links between virus genotype and the host response to infection, providing new insights on the relationship between virus evolution and fitness.

As viruses are obligate intracellular pathogens, their ability to replicate and spread within their hosts is key for survival, even if it leads to severe disease or death of the host. Understanding the consequences of long-term virus adaptation after viral emergence is key for pandemic preparedness. H3N8 equine influenza virus (EIV) originated in birds and has circulated in horses since 1963, thus providing unique opportunities to study virus adaptation. We compared the replication kinetics of two EIVs of the same lineage but with different evolutionary histories: the earliest virus (EIV/63, isolated in 1963), and EIV/2003, which was isolated after 40 years of continuous circulation in horses. Experimental infections of cell lines (MDCK and E.Derm cells) and equine respiratory explants show that EIV evolved towards enhanced replication and cell-to-cell spread; but reduced tissue damage, confirming that viral fitness is adaptive and does not necessarily result in higher virulence.

SARS-CoV-2 virulence evolution: Avirulence theory, immunity and trade-offs

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a resurgence of the debate on whether host-parasite interactions should evolve towards avirulence. In this review, we first show that SARS-CoV-2 virulence is evolving, before explaining why some expect the mortality caused by the epidemic to converge towards that of human seasonal alphacoronaviruses. Leaning on existing theory, we then include viral evolution into the picture and discuss hypotheses explaining why the virulence has increased since the beginning of the pandemic. Finally, we mention some potential scenarios for the future.

Genetic architecture of transmission stage production and virulence in schistosome parasites

Both theory and experimental data from pathogens suggest that the production of transmission stages should be strongly associated with virulence, but the genetic bases of parasite transmission/virulence traits are poorly understood. The blood fluke Schistosoma mansoni shows extensive variation in numbers of cercariae larvae shed and in their virulence to infected snail hosts, consistent with expected trade-offs between parasite transmission and virulence. We crossed schistosomes from two populations that differ 8-fold in cercarial shedding and in their virulence to Biomphalaria glabrata snail hosts, and determined four-week cercarial shedding profiles in F0 parents, F1 parents and 376 F2 progeny from two independent crosses in inbred snails. Sequencing and linkage analysis revealed that cercarial production is polygenic and controlled by five QTLs (i.e. Quantitative Trait Loci). These QTLs act additively, explaining 28.56% of the phenotypic variation. These results demonstrate that the genetic architecture of key traits relevant to schistosome ecology can be dissected using classical linkage mapping approaches.

Passage and the evolution of virulence in invertebrate pathogens: Fundamental and applied perspectives

Understanding the ecological and genetic factors that determine the evolution of virulence has broad value for invertebrate pathology. In addition to helping us understand the fundamental biology of our study organisms this body of theory has important applications in microbial biocontrol. Experimental tests of virulence theory are often carried out in invertebrate models and yet theory rarely informs applied passage experiments that aim to increase or maintain virulence. This review summarizes recent progress in this field with a focus on work most relevant to biological control: the virulence of invertebrate pathogens that are 'obligate killers' and which require cadavers for the production of infectious propagules. We discuss recent theory and fundamental and applied experimental evolution with bacteria, fungi, baculoviruses and nematodes. While passage experiments using baculoviruses have a long history of producing isolates with increased virulence, studies with other pathogens have not been so successful. Recent passage experiments that have applied evolution of virulence frameworks based on cooperation (kin selection) have produced novel methods and promising mutants with increased killing power. Evolution of virulence theory can provide plausible explanations for the varied results of passage experiments as well as a predictive framework for improving artificial selection.

Avian vampire fly (Philornis downsi) mortality differs across Darwin's finch host species

In invasive parasites, generalism is considered advantageous during the initial phase of introduction. Thereafter, fitness costs to parasites, such as host-specific mortality, can drive parasites towards specialism to avoid costly hosts. It is important to determine changes in host specificity of invasive populations to understand host-parasite dynamics and their effects on vulnerable host populations. We examined changes in mortality in the introduced avian vampire fly (Philornis downsi) (Diptera: Muscidae), a generalist myasis-causing ectoparasite, between 2004 and 2020 on Floreana Island (Galápagos). Mortality was measured as the proportion of immature larvae found upon host nest termination. Over the time period, the avian vampire fly was most abundant and had low mortality in nests of the critically endangered medium tree finch (Camarhynchus pauper) and had the highest mortality in nests of hybrid tree finches (Camarhynchus spp.). Low larval mortality was also found in small tree (Camarhynchus parvulus) and small ground finch (Geospiza fuliginosa) nests. Selection could favour avian vampire flies that select medium tree finch nests and/or avoid hybrid nests. Overall, the finding of differences in avian vampire fly survival across host species is parsimonious with the idea that the introduced fly may be evolving towards host specialisation.

Understanding potential implications for non-trophic parasite transmission based on vertebrate behavior at mesocarnivore carcass sites

High infection risk is often associated with aggregations of animals around attractive resources. Here, we explore the behavior of potential hosts of non-trophically transmitted parasites at mesocarnivore carcass sites. We used videos recorded by camera traps at 56 red fox (Vulpes vulpes) carcasses and 10 carcasses of other wild carnivore species in three areas of southeastern Spain. Scavenging species, especially wild canids, mustelids and viverrids, showed more frequent rubbing behavior at carcass sites than non-scavenging and domestic species, suggesting that they could be exposed to a higher potential infection risk. The red fox was the species that most frequently contacted carcasses and marked and rubbed carcass sites. Foxes contacted heterospecific carcasses more frequently and earlier than conspecific ones and, when close contact occurred, it was more likely to be observed at heterospecific carcasses. This suggests that foxes avoid contact with the type of carcass and time period that have the greatest risk as a source of parasites. Overall, non-trophic behaviors of higher infection risk were mainly associated with visitor-carcass contact and visitor contact with feces and urine, rather than direct contact between visitors. Moreover, contact events between scavengers and carnivore carcasses were far more frequent than consumption events, which suggests that scavenger behavior is more constrained by the risk of acquiring meat-borne parasites than non-trophically transmitted parasites. This study contributes to filling key gaps in understanding the role of carrion in the landscape of disgust, which may be especially relevant in the current global context of emerging and re-emerging pathogens.

Evolution of human respiratory virus epidemics

Background: Pathogens are often assumed to evolve towards reduced virulence, but counterexamples abound. Faced with a new pathogen, such as SARS-CoV-2, it is crucial to be able to forecast the case fatality rate (CFR) and the overall disease burden. Considerable effort has been invested towards developing a mathematical framework for predicting virulence evolution. Although many approaches accurately recapitulate complex outcomes, most rely on an assumed trade-off between CFR and infection rate. It is often impractical to empirically validate this constraint for human pathogens. Methods: A compartment model with parameters tuning the degree to which symptomatic individuals are isolated and the duration of immunity is constructed and evaluated at both short timescales and at equilibrium. Results: We reveal kinetic constraints whereby variation of multiple parameters in concert leads to decreased CFR and increased pathogen fitness, whereas independent variation of the parameters decreases pathogen fitness. Smallpox, SARS-CoV-2, and influenza are analyzed as diverse representatives of human respiratory viruses. We show that highly virulent viruses, such as smallpox, are often constrained by the host behavior, whereas moderately virulent viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, appear to be typically constrained by the relationship between the duration of immunity and CFR. Conclusions: Evolution of human respiratory epidemics appears to be often kinetically constrained and a reduction in CFR should not be assumed. These results agree with previous work demonstrating an increase in virulence for smallpox and further predict that SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue presenting a substantial disease burden. Herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and viruses with similar life history traits might be unachievable without vaccination. However, partial isolation of symptomatic individuals can have a major effect on the epidemic dynamics not only by reducing the number of fatalities in the short term but also by changing the evolutionary trajectory of moderate CFR viruses towards reduced CFR.

Evolution of human respiratory virus epidemics

Background: It is often assumed that pathogens evolve towards reduced virulence, but counterexamples abound. Faced with a new pathogen, such as SARS-CoV-2, it is highly desirable to be able to forecast the case fatality rate (CFR) and overall disease burden into the future. Considerable effort has been invested towards the development of a mathematical framework for predicting virulence evolution. Although many approaches accurately recapitulate complex outcomes, most rely on an assumed trade-off between CFR and infection rate. It is often impractical to empirically validate this constraint for human pathogens. Methods: A compartment model with parameters tuning the degree to which symptomatic individuals are isolated and the duration of immunity is constructed and evaluated at both short timescales and at equilibrium (when it exists). Results: We reveal kinetic constraints where the variation of multiple parameters in concert leads to decreased CFR and increased pathogen fitness, whereas independent variation of the parameters decreases pathogen fitness. Smallpox, SARS-CoV-2, and influenza are analyzed as diverse representatives of human respiratory viruses. We show that highly virulent viruses, such as smallpox, are likely often constrained by host behavior, whereas moderately virulent viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, appear to be typically constrained by the relationship between the duration of immunity and CFR. Conclusions: Evolution of human respiratory epidemics appears to be often kinetically constrained and a reduction in CFR should not be assumed. Our findings imply that, without continued public health intervention, SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue presenting a substantial disease burden. The existence of a parameter regime admitting endemic equilibrium suggests that herd immunity is unachievable. However, we demonstrate that even partial isolation of symptomatic individuals can have a major effect not only by reducing the number of fatalities in the short term but also by potentially changing the evolutionary trajectory of the virus towards reduced CFR.

The central role of host reproduction in determining the evolution of virulence in spatially structured populations

A substantial body of work has shown that local transmission selects for less acute, 'prudent' parasites that have lower virulence and transmission rates. This is because parasite strains with higher transmission rates 'self-shade' due to a combination of genetic correlations (self: clustered related parasite strains compete for susceptible individuals) and ecological correlations (shade: infected individuals clustering and blocking transmission). However, the interaction of ecological and genetic correlations alongside higher order ecological effects such as patch extinctions means that spatial evolutionary effects can be nuanced; theory has predicted that a relatively small proportion of local infection can select for highest virulence, such that there is a humped relationship between the degree of local infection and the harm that parasites are selected to cause. Here, we examine the separate roles of the interaction scales of reproduction and infection in the context of different degrees of pathogenic castration in determining virulence evolution outcomes. Our key result is that, as long as there is significant reproduction from infected individuals, local infection always selects for lower virulence, and that the prediction that a small proportion of local infection can select for higher virulence only occurs for highly castrating pathogens. The results emphasize the importance of demography for evolutionary outcomes in spatially structured populations, but also show that the core prediction that parasites are prudent in space is reasonable for the vast majority of host-parasite interactions and mixing patterns in nature.

Virulence during Newcastle Disease Viruses Cross Species Adaptation

The hypothesis that host adaptation in virulent Newcastle disease viruses (NDV) has been accompanied by virulence modulation is reviewed here. Historical records, experimental data, and phylogenetic analyses from available GenBank sequences suggest that currently circulating NDVs emerged in the 1920-1940's from low virulence viruses by mutation at the fusion protein cleavage site. These viruses later gave rise to multiple virulent genotypes by modulating virulence in opposite directions. Phylogenetic and pathotyping studies demonstrate that older virulent NDVs further evolved into chicken-adapted genotypes by increasing virulence (velogenic-viscerotropic pathotypes with intracerebral pathogenicity indexes [ICPIs] of 1.6 to 2), or into cormorant-adapted NDVs by moderating virulence (velogenic-neurotropic pathotypes with ICPIs of 1.4 to 1.6), or into pigeon-adapted viruses by further attenuating virulence (mesogenic pathotypes with ICPIs of 0.9 to 1.4). Pathogenesis and transmission experiments on adult chickens demonstrate that chicken-adapted velogenic-viscerotropic viruses are more capable of causing disease than older velogenic-neurotropic viruses. Currently circulating velogenic-viscerotropic viruses are also more capable of replicating and of being transmitted in naïve chickens than viruses from cormorants and pigeons. These evolutionary virulence changes are consistent with theories that predict that virulence may evolve in many directions in order to achieve maximum fitness, as determined by genetic and ecologic constraints.

Treating symptomatic infections and the co-evolution of virulence and drug resistance

Antimicrobial therapeutic treatments are by definition applied after the onset of symptoms, which tend to correlate with infection severity. Using mathematical epidemiology models, I explore how this link affects the coevolutionary dynamics between the virulence of an infection, measured via host mortality rate, and its susceptibility to chemotherapy. I show that unless resistance pre-exists in the population, drug-resistant infections are initially more virulent than drug-sensitive ones. As the epidemic unfolds, virulence is more counter-selected in drug-sensitive than in drug-resistant infections. This difference decreases over time and, eventually, the exact shape of genetic trade-offs govern long-term evolutionary dynamics. Using adaptive dynamics, I show that two types of evolutionary stable strategies (ESS) may be reached in the context of this simple model and that, depending on the parameter values, an ESS may only be locally stable. In general, the more the treatment rate increases with virulence, the lower the ESS value. Overall, both on the short-term and long-term, having treatment rate depend on infection virulence tend to favour less virulent strains in drug-sensitive infections. These results highlight the importance of the feedbacks between epidemiology, public health policies and parasite evolution, and have implications for the monitoring of virulence evolution.

The evolutionary dynamics of viruses: virion release strategies, time delays and fitness minima

Viruses exhibit a diverse array of strategies for infecting host cells and for virion release after replication. Cell exit strategies generally involve either budding from the cell membrane or killing the host cell. The conditions under which either is at a selective advantage is a key question in the evolutionary theory of viruses, with the outcome having potentially important impacts on the course of infection and pathogenicity. Although a plethora of external factors will influence the fitness of either strategy; here, we focus just on the effects of the physical properties of the system. We develop theoretical approaches to assess the effects of the time delays between initial infection and virion release. We show that the length of the delay before apoptosis is an important trait in virus evolutionary dynamics. Our results show that for a fixed time to apoptosis, intermediate delays lead to virus fitness that is lower than short times to apoptosis - leading to an apoptotic strategy - and long times to apoptosis - leading to a budding strategy at the between-cell level. At fitness minima, selection is expected to be disruptive and the potential for adaptive radiation in virus strategies is feasible. Hence, the physical properties of the system are sufficient to explain the existence of both budding and virus-induced apoptosis. The fitness functions presented here provide a formal basis for further work focusing on the evolutionary implications of trade-offs between time delays, intracellular replication and resulting mutation rates.

Experimental evidence for stabilizing selection on virulence in a bacterial pathogen

The virulence‐transmission trade‐off hypothesis has provided a dominant theoretical basis for predicting pathogen virulence evolution, but empirical tests are rare, particularly at pathogen emergence. The central prediction of this hypothesis is that pathogen fitness is maximized at intermediate virulence due to a trade‐off between infection duration and transmission rate. However, obtaining sufficient numbers of pathogen isolates of contrasting virulence to test the shape of relationships between key pathogen traits, and doing so without the confounds of evolved host protective immunity (as expected at emergence), is challenging. Here, we inoculated 55 isolates of the bacterial pathogen, Mycoplasma gallisepticum, into non‐resistant house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus) from populations that have never been exposed to the disease. Isolates were collected over a 20‐year period from outbreak in disease‐exposed populations of house finches and vary markedly in virulence. We found a positive linear relationship between pathogen virulence and transmission rate to an uninfected sentinel, supporting the core assumption of the trade‐off hypothesis. Further, in support of the key prediction, there was no evidence for directional selection on a quantitative proxy of pathogen virulence and, instead, isolates of intermediate virulence were fittest. Surprisingly, however, the positive relationship between virulence and transmission rate was not underpinned by variation in pathogen load or replication rate as is commonly assumed. Our results indicate that selection favors pathogens of intermediate virulence at disease emergence in a novel host species, even when virulence and transmission are not linked to pathogen load.

Prophylactic host behaviour discourages pathogen exploitation

Much work has considered the evolution of pathogens, but little is known about how they respond to changes in host behaviour. We build a model of sublethal disease effects where hosts are able to choose to engage in prophylactic measures that reduce the likelihood of disease transmission. This choice is mediated by utility costs and benefits associated with prophylaxis, and the fraction of hosts engaged in prophylaxis is also affected by population dynamics. When prophylactic host behaviour occurs, we find that the level of pathogen host exploitation is reduced, by the action of selection, relative to the level that would otherwise be predicted in the absence of prophylaxis. Our work emphasizes the significance of the transmission-recovery trade-off faced by the pathogen and the ability of the pathogen to influence host prophylactic behaviour.

Tolerance of Plants to Pathogens: A Unifying View

Increasing evidence indicates that tolerance is a host defense strategy against pathogens as widespread and successful as resistance. Since the concept of tolerance was proposed more than a century ago, it has been in continuous evolution. In parallel, our understanding of its mechanistic bases and its consequences for host and pathogen interactions, ecology, and evolution has grown. This review aims at summarizing the conceptual changes in the meaning of tolerance inside and outside the field of phytopathology, emphasizing difficulties in demonstrating and quantifying this trait. We also discuss evidence of tolerance and current knowledge on its genetic regulation, mechanisms, and role in host-pathogen coevolution, highlighting common patterns across hosts and pathogens. We hope that this comprehensive review attracts more plant pathologists to the study of this key plant defense response.

The target of selection matters: An established resistance-development-time negative genetic trade-off is not found when selecting on development time

Trade-offs are fundamental to evolutionary outcomes and play a central role in eco-evolutionary theory. They are often examined by experimentally selecting on one life-history trait and looking for negative correlations in other traits. For example, populations of the moth Plodia interpunctella selected to resist viral infection show a life-history cost with longer development times. However, we rarely examine whether the detection of such negative genetic correlations depends on the trait on which we select. Here, we examine a well-characterized negative genotypic trade-off between development time and resistance to viral infection in the moth Plodia interpunctella and test whether selection on a phenotype known to be a cost of resistance (longer development time) leads to the predicted correlated increase in resistance. If there is tight pleiotropic relationship between genes that determine development time and resistance underpinning this trade-off, we might expect increased resistance when we select on longer development time. However, we show that selecting for longer development time in this system selects for reduced resistance when compared to selection for shorter development time. This shows how phenotypes typically characterized by a trade-off can deviate from that trade-off relationship, and suggests little genetic linkage between the genes governing viral resistance and those that determine response to selection on the key life-history trait. Our results are important for both selection strategies in applied biological systems and for evolutionary modelling of host-parasite interactions.

Vibrio splendidus O-antigen structure: a trade-off between virulence to oysters and resistance to grazers

A major debate in evolutionary biology is whether virulence is maintained as an adaptive trait and/or evolves to non-virulence. In the environment, virulence traits of non-obligatory parasites are subjected to diverse selective pressures and trade-offs. Here, we focus on a population of Vibrio splendidus that displays moderate virulence for oysters. A MARTX (Multifunctional-autoprocessing repeats-in-toxin) and a type-six secretion system (T6SS) were found to be necessary for virulence toward oysters, while a region (wbe) involved in O-antigen synthesis is necessary for resistance to predation against amoebae. Gene inactivation within the wbe region had major consequences on the O-antigen structure, conferring lower immunogenicity, competitive advantage and increased virulence in oyster experimental infections. Therefore, O-antigen structures that favour resistance to environmental predators result in an increased activation of the oyster immune system and a reduced virulence in that host. These trade-offs likely contribute to maintaining O-antigen diversity in the marine environment by favouring genomic plasticity of the wbe region. The results of this study indicate an evolution of V. splendidus towards moderate virulence as a compromise between fitness in the oyster as a host, and resistance to its predators in the environment.

Understanding the Evolutionary Ecology of host--pathogen Interactions Provides Insights into the Outcomes of Insect Pest Biocontrol

The use of viral pathogens to control thepopulation size of pest insects has produced both successful and unsuccessful outcomes. Here, we investigate whether those biocontrol successes and failures can be explained by key ecological and evolutionary processes between hosts and pathogens. Specifically, we examine how heterogeneity inpathogen transmission, ecological and evolutionary tradeoffs, andpathogen diversity affect insect population density and thus successful control. Wefirst review theexisting literature and then use numerical simulations of mathematical models to further explore these processes. Our results show that thecontrol of insect densities using viruses depends strongly on theheterogeneity of virus transmission among insects. Overall, increased heterogeneity of transmission reduces theeffect of viruses on insect densities and increases thelong-term stability of insect populations. Lower equilibrium insect densities occur when transmission is heritable and when there is atradeoff between mean transmission and insect fecundity compared to when theheterogeneity of transmission arises from non-genetic sources. Thus, theheterogeneity of transmission is akey parameter that regulates thelong-term population dynamics of insects and their pathogens. Wealso show that both heterogeneity of transmission and life-history tradeoffs modulate characteristics of population dynamics such as thefrequency and intensity of ``boom--bust" population cycles. Furthermore, we show that because of life-history tradeoffs affecting thetransmission rate, theuse of multiple pathogen strains is more effective than theuse of asingle strain to control insect densities only when thepathogen strains differ considerably intheir transmission characteristics. By quantifying theeffects of ecology and evolution on population densities, we are able to offer recommendations to assess thelong-term effects of classical biocontrol.

Partitioning the influence of ecology across scales on parasite evolution

Vector-borne parasites must succeed at three scales to persist: they must proliferate within a host, establish in vectors, and transmit back to hosts. Ecology outside the host undergoes dramatic seasonal and human-induced changes, but predicting parasite evolutionary responses requires integrating their success across scales. We develop a novel, data-driven model to titrate the evolutionary impact of ecology at multiple scales on human malaria parasites. We investigate how parasites invest in transmission versus proliferation, a life-history trait that influences disease severity and spread. We find that transmission investment controls the pattern of host infectiousness over the course of infection: a trade-off emerges between early and late infectiousness, and the optimal resolution of that trade-off depends on ecology outside the host. An expanding epidemic favors rapid proliferation, and can overwhelm the evolutionary influence of host recovery rates and mosquito population dynamics. If transmission investment and recovery rate are positively correlated, then ecology outside the host imposes potent selection for aggressive parasite proliferation at the expense of transmission. Any association between transmission investment and recovery represents a key unknown, one that is likely to influence whether the evolutionary consequences of interventions are beneficial or costly for human health.

Contrasting evolution of virulence and replication rate in an emerging bacterial pathogen

With increasing antibiotic resistance, there is a pressing need to understand how host resistance naturally influences bacterial virulence and replication rates. We test this in an infection experiment using 55 isolates of a bacterium, which were collected over the course of the epidemic following its natural emergence in a North American songbird. We demonstrate virulence has increased linearly from outbreak to the present day, encompassing >150,000 bacterial generations. Despite this, bacterial replication rate only increased during the initial spread of host resistance but not thereafter. Thus, contrary to common assumptions, virulence and replication rates can evolve independently, particularly after the initial spread of host resistance.

Host resistance through immune clearance is predicted to favor pathogens that are able to transmit faster and are hence more virulent. Increasing pathogen virulence is, in turn, typically assumed to be mediated by increasing replication rates. However, experiments designed to test how pathogen virulence and replication rates evolve in response to increasing host resistance, as well as the relationship between the two, are rare and lacking for naturally evolving host–pathogen interactions. We inoculated 55 isolates of Mycoplasma gallisepticum, collected over 20 y from outbreak, into house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus) from disease-unexposed populations, which have not evolved protective immunity to M. gallisepticum. We show using 3 different metrics of virulence (body mass loss, symptom severity, and putative mortality rate) that virulence has increased linearly over >150,000 bacterial generations since outbreak (1994 to 2015). By contrast, while replication rates increased from outbreak to the initial spread of resistance (1994 to 2004), no further increases have occurred subsequently (2007 to 2015). Finally, as a consequence, we found that any potential mediating effect of replication rate on virulence evolution was restricted to the period when host resistance was initially increasing in the population. Taken together, our results show that pathogen virulence and replication rates can evolve independently, particularly after the initial spread of host resistance. We hypothesize that the evolution of pathogen virulence can be driven primarily by processes such as immune manipulation after resistance spreads in host populations.

Genomic analysis unveils important aspects of population structure, virulence, and antimicrobial resistance in Klebsiella aerogenes

Klebsiella aerogenes is an important pathogen in healthcare-associated infections. Nevertheless, in comparison to other clinically important pathogens, K. aerogenes population structure, genetic diversity, and pathogenicity remain poorly understood. Here, we elucidate K. aerogenes clonal complexes (CCs) and genomic features associated with resistance and virulence. We present a detailed description of the population structure of K. aerogenes based on 97 publicly available genomes by using both multilocus sequence typing and single-nucleotide polymorphisms extracted from the core genome. We also assessed virulence and resistance profiles using Virulence Finder Database and Comprehensive Antibiotic Resistance Database, respectively. We show that K. aerogenes has an open pangenome and a large effective population size, which account for its high genomic diversity and support that negative selection prevents fixation of most deleterious alleles. The population is structured in at least 10 CCs, including two novel ones identified here, CC9 and CC10. The repertoires of resistance genes comprise a high number of antibiotic efflux proteins as well as narrow- and extended-spectrum β-lactamases. Regarding the population structure, we identified two clusters based on virulence profiles because of the presence of the toxin-encoding clb operon and the siderophore production genes, irp and ybt. Notably, CC3 comprises the majority of K. aerogenes isolates associated with hospital outbreaks, emphasizing the importance of constant monitoring of this pathogen. Collectively, our results may provide a foundation for the development of new therapeutic and surveillance strategies worldwide.

Phenotypic variations in persistence and infectivity between and within environmentally transmitted pathogen populations impact population-level epidemic dynamics

BACKGROUND

Human pathogens transmitted through environmental pathways are subject to stress and pressures outside of the host. These pressures may cause pathogen pathovars to diverge in their environmental persistence and their infectivity on an evolutionary time-scale. On a shorter time-scale, a single-genotype pathogen population may display wide variation in persistence times and exhibit biphasic decay.

METHODS

We use a transmission modeling framework to develop an infectious disease model with biphasic pathogen decay. We take a differential algebra approach to assessing model identifiability, calculate basic reproduction numbers by the next generation method, and use simulation to explore model dynamics.

RESULTS

For both long and short time-scales, we demonstrate that epidemic-potential-preserving trade-offs have implications for epidemic dynamics: less infectious, more persistent pathogens cause epidemics to progress more slowly than more infectious, less persistent (labile) pathogens, even when the overall risk is the same. Using identifiability analysis, we show that the usual disease surveillance data does not sufficiently inform these underlying pathogen population dynamics, even when combined with basic environmental monitoring data. However, risk could be indirectly ascertained by developing methods to separately monitor labile and persistent subpopulations. Alternatively, determining the relative infectivity of persistent pathogen subpopulations and the rates of phenotypic conversion will help ascertain how much disease risk is associated with the long tails of biphasic decay.

CONCLUSION

A better understanding of persistence-infectivity trade-offs and associated dynamics can improve our ecological understanding of environmentally transmitted pathogens, as well as our risk assessment and disease control strategies.

Virulence-driven trade-offs in disease transmission: A meta-analysis

The virulence-transmission trade-off hypothesis proposed more than 30 years ago is the cornerstone in the study of host-parasite co-evolution. This hypothesis rests on the premise that virulence is an unavoidable and increasing cost because the parasite uses host resources to replicate. This cost associated with replication ultimately results in a deceleration in transmission rate because increasing within-host replication increases host mortality. Empirical tests of predictions of the hypothesis have found mixed support, which cast doubt about its overall generalizability. To quantitatively address this issue, we conducted a meta-analysis of 29 empirical studies, after reviewing over 6000 published papers, addressing the four core relationships between (1) virulence and recovery rate, (2) within-host replication rate and virulence, (3) within-host replication and transmission rate, and (4) virulence and transmission rate. We found strong support for an increasing relationship between replication and virulence, and replication and transmission. Yet, it is still uncertain if these relationships generally decelerate due to high within-study variability. There was insufficient data to quantitatively test the other two core relationships predicted by the theory. Overall, the results suggest that the current empirical evidence provides partial support for the trade-off hypothesis, but more work remains to be done.

Resource-driven changes to host population stability alter the evolution of virulence and transmission

What drives the evolution of parasite life-history traits? Recent studies suggest that linking within- and between-host processes can provide key insight into both disease dynamics and parasite evolution. Still, it remains difficult to understand how to pinpoint the critical factors connecting these cross-scale feedbacks, particularly under non-equilibrium conditions; many natural host populations inherently fluctuate and parasites themselves can strongly alter the stability of host populations. Here, we develop a general model framework that mechanistically links resources to parasite evolution across a gradient of stable and unstable conditions. First, we dynamically link resources and between-host processes (host density, stability, transmission) to virulence evolution, using a 'non-nested' model. Then, we consider a 'nested' model where population-level processes (transmission and virulence) depend on resource-driven changes to individual-level (within-host) processes (energetics, immune function, parasite production). Contrary to 'non-nested' model predictions, the 'nested' model reveals complex effects of host population dynamics on parasite evolution, including regions of evolutionary bistability; evolution can push parasites towards strongly or weakly stabilizing strategies. This bistability results from dynamic feedbacks between resource-driven changes to host density, host immune function and parasite production. Together, these results highlight how cross-scale feedbacks can provide key insights into the structuring role of parasites and parasite evolution.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'.

The phylogenomics of evolving virus virulence

How virulence evolves after a virus jumps to a new host species is central to disease emergence. Our current understanding of virulence evolution is based on insights drawn from two perspectives that have developed largely independently: long-standing evolutionary theory based on limited real data examples that often lack a genomic basis, and experimental studies of virulence-determining mutations using cell culture or animal models. A more comprehensive understanding of virulence mutations and their evolution can be achieved by bridging the gap between these two research pathways through the phylogenomic analysis of virus genome sequence data as a guide to experimental study.

The life history strategy of a fur seal hookworm in relation to pathogenicity and host health status

The strategies that parasites use to exploit their hosts can lead to adverse effects on human and animal populations. Here, we describe the life cycle, epidemiology, and consequences of hookworm (Uncinaria sp.) disease in South American fur seals (Arctocephalus australis), and propose that hookworm adaptation to fur seal life history traits has led to maximizing transmission at high levels of parasite-induced anemia and mortality. Fur seal pups acquire hookworms during their first days of life through their mothers' colostrum and most adult hookworms are expelled from the pups' intestine 30-65 days later. This gives hookworms little time to feed and reproduce. However, despite reaching high within-host densities, female hookworms do not decrease egg output, therefore pups with high hookworm burden contribute disproportionately to parasite egg shedding. These heavily infected pups also suffer severe anemia and high levels of hookworm-induced mortality. Alternative strategies to maximize total egg shedding and/or transmission, such as increased environmental survival of larval stages or avoidance of clearance, have not been developed by this hookworm. We propose that fur seal hookworms exploit a live fast-die young life history strategy, which translates to the highest levels of host anemia and mortality recorded among hookworms.

Ecology and evolution of facilitation among symbionts

Facilitation occurs when one species positively impacts the fitness of another, and has predominantly been studied in free-living species like plants. Facilitation can also occur among symbiont (mutualistic or parasitic) species or strains, but equivalent studies are scarce. To advance an integrated view of the effect of facilitation on symbiont ecology and evolution, we review empirical evidence and their underlying mechanisms, explore the factors favouring its emergence, and discuss its consequences for virulence and transmission. We argue that the facilitation concept can improve understanding of the evolutionary forces shaping symbiont communities and their effects on hosts.