A Horizon Scan of Emerging Global Biological Conservation Issues for 2020

Active European warzone impacts raptor migration

Human conflicts can have impacts on wildlife, from direct mortality and environmental damage to the displacement of people, changing institutional dynamics and altering economies.1,2,3 Extreme anthropogenic disturbances related to conflict may act as a barrier to migrating birds and increase the energetic costs of migration.4 On February 24th, 2022, the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine, with targeted attacks on Kyiv and the eastern regions.5 By March 3rd, when the first of 19 tagged Greater Spotted Eagles entered Ukraine on migration, the conflict had spread to most major cities, including parts of western Ukraine.6 We quantified how conflict impacted the migratory behavior of this species using GPS tracks and conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project7,8 in a quasi-experimental before-after control-impact design, accounting for meteorological conditions. Migrating eagles were exposed to conflict events along their migration through Ukraine and exhibited different behavior compared with previous years, using fewer stopover sites and making large route deviations. This delayed their arrival to the breeding grounds and likely increased the energetic cost of migration, with sublethal fitness effects. Our findings provide a rare window into how human conflicts affect animal behavior and highlight the potential impacts of exposure to conflict events or other extreme anthropogenic disturbances on wildlife.

Horizon scanning process to foresight emerging issues in Arabsphere's water vision

The Arabsphere struggles with highly complicated water challenges due to climate change, desertification, coronavirus pandemic, and Russo-Ukrainian War. This paper explores how to build a robust water vision to pave the road to achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the Arabsphere. A sustainable water future (SWF) necessitates an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research strategy. 'Horizon scanning' process (HSP) is one of the promising foresight methodologies. A generic process for "Horizon scanning" has been developed to cope with water crises and challenges. "DEEPEST" holistic framework has been designed to suit both the "Futurology" science and water, environment, and engineering disciplines. "DEEPEST" characterizes Demographics, Ecological, Environmental, Political, Economic, Social, and Technological features. The macro-future factors (MFF) applied in the foresight process (FP) have been presented. The results showed that Water conservation (WC), Circular Water (CW), and Emerging Water Technologies (EWTs) were the main outcomes of the 'Horizon scanning' process (HSP). The paper concluded that the preparing for a sustainable water future (SWF) must be right now and the opportunities range from the deepest water drop to the highest water drop on Earth. The essence of the conclusion is hydrosphere sustainability, particularly in Arabsphere, should be given extreme concentration, effort, and support.

Meeting sustainable development goals via robotics and autonomous systems

Robotics and autonomous systems are reshaping the world, changing healthcare, food production and biodiversity management. While they will play a fundamental role in delivering the UN Sustainable Development Goals, associated opportunities and threats are yet to be considered systematically. We report on a horizon scan evaluating robotics and autonomous systems impact on all Sustainable Development Goals, involving 102 experts from around the world. Robotics and autonomous systems are likely to transform how the Sustainable Development Goals are achieved, through replacing and supporting human activities, fostering innovation, enhancing remote access and improving monitoring. Emerging threats relate to reinforcing inequalities, exacerbating environmental change, diverting resources from tried-and-tested solutions and reducing freedom and privacy through inadequate governance. Although predicting future impacts of robotics and autonomous systems on the Sustainable Development Goals is difficult, thoroughly examining technological developments early is essential to prevent unintended detrimental consequences. Additionally, robotics and autonomous systems should be considered explicitly when developing future iterations of the Sustainable Development Goals to avoid reversing progress or exacerbating inequalities.

A horizon scan was used to explore possible impacts of robotics and automated systems on achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Positive effects are likely. Iterative regulatory processes and continued dialogue could help avoid environmental damages and increases in inequality.

Host and gut microbiome modulate the antiparasitic activity of nectar metabolites in a bumblebee pollinator

Antimicrobial nectar secondary metabolites can support pollinator health by preventing or reducing parasite infections. To better understand the outcome of nectar metabolite-parasite interactions in pollinators, we determined whether the antiparasitic activity was altered through chemical modification by the host or resident microbiome during gut passage. We investigated this interaction with linden (Tilia spp.) and strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo) nectar compounds. Unedone from A. unedo nectar inhibited the common bumblebee gut parasite Crithidia bombi in vitro and in Bombus terrestris gynes. A compound in Tilia nectar, 1-[4-(1-hydroxy-1-methylethyl)-1,3-cyclohexadiene-1-carboxylate]-6-O-β-d-glucopyranosyl-β-d-glucopyranose (tiliaside), showed no inhibition in vitro at naturally occurring concentrations but reduced C. bombi infections of B. terrestris workers. Independent of microbiome status, tiliaside was deglycosylated during gut passage, thereby increasing its antiparasitic activity in the hindgut, the site of C. bombi infections. Conversely, unedone was first glycosylated in the midgut without influence of the microbiome to unedone-8-O-β-d-glucoside, rendering it inactive against C. bombi, but subsequently deglycosylated by the microbiome in the hindgut, restoring its activity. We therefore show that conversion of nectar metabolites by either the host or the microbiome modulates antiparasitic activity of nectar metabolites. This article is part of the theme issue 'Natural processes influencing pollinator health: from chemistry to landscapes'.

A framework to integrate innovations in invasion science for proactive management

Invasive alien species (IAS) are a rising threat to biodiversity, national security, and regional economies, with impacts in the hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars annually. Proactive or predictive approaches guided by scientific knowledge are essential to keeping pace with growing impacts of invasions under climate change. Although the rapid development of diverse technologies and approaches has produced tools with the potential to greatly accelerate invasion research and management, innovation has far outpaced implementation and coordination. Technological and methodological syntheses are urgently needed to close the growing implementation gap and facilitate interdisciplinary collaboration and synergy among evolving disciplines. A broad review is necessary to demonstrate the utility and relevance of work in diverse fields to generate actionable science for the ongoing invasion crisis. Here, we review such advances in relevant fields including remote sensing, epidemiology, big data analytics, environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling, genomics, and others, and present a generalized framework for distilling existing and emerging data into products for proactive IAS research and management. This integrated workflow provides a pathway for scientists and practitioners in diverse disciplines to contribute to applied invasion biology in a coordinated, synergistic, and scalable manner.

Using expert-elicitation to deliver biodiversity monitoring priorities on a Mediterranean island

Biodiversity monitoring plays an essential role in tracking changes in ecosystems, species distributions and abundances across the globe. Data collected through both structured and unstructured biodiversity recording can inform conservation measures designed to reduce, prevent, and reverse declines in valued biodiversity of many types. However, given that resources for biodiversity monitoring are limited, it is important that funding bodies prioritise investments relative to the requirements in any given region. We addressed this prioritisation requirement for a biodiverse Mediterranean island (Cyprus) using a three-stage process of expert-elicitation. This resulted in a structured list of twenty biodiversity monitoring needs; specifically, a hierarchy of three groups of these needs was created using a consensus approach. The most highly prioritised biodiversity monitoring needs were those related to the development of robust survey methodologies, and those ensuring that sufficiently skilled citizens are available to contribute. We discuss ways that the results of our expert-elicitation process could be used to support current and future biodiversity monitoring in Cyprus.

A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2022

We present the results of our 13th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact on biodiversity conservation. Issues are either novel within the biological conservation sector or could cause a substantial step-change in impact, either globally or regionally. Our global panel of 26 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues that we believe to represent the highest priorities for tracking and action. Many of the issues we identified, including the impact of satellite megaconstellations and the use of long-distance wireless energy transfer, have both elements of threats and emerging opportunities. A recent state-sponsored application to commence deep-sea mining represents a significant step-change in impact. We hope that this horizon scan will increase research and policy attention on the highlighted issues.

High-Throughput Sequencing of faeces provides evidence for dispersal of parasites and pathogens by migratory waterbirds

Examination of faecal material has demonstrated how a broad range of organisms are distributed by bird movements. Such research has largely focused on dispersal of plant seeds by frugivores and of freshwater organisms by waterbirds. However, with few exceptions (e.g. avian influenza, Ebola virus), there is a dearth of evidence for transport of parasites and pathogens. High-throughput sequencing methods now provide a powerful means of addressing this knowledge gap by elucidating faecal contents in unprecedented detail. We collected faeces excreted by a range of migratory waterbirds in south-west Spain and pooled faecal DNA to create libraries reflective of feeding behavior. We created sets of libraries using high-throughput metagenomic and amplicon sequencing. For the latter we employed two sets of primers to broadly target the V4 region of the 18S rRNA gene (one set amplifying the region across all eukaryotes, the other excluding amplification of metazoans). Libraries revealed a wide diversity of eukaryotes, including parasites of the faecal producers themselves, parasites of food items, or those incidentally ingested. We also detected novel microbial eukaryotic taxa and found that parasite assemblage profiles were relatively distinct. Comparing the performance of the methods used supports their joint use for future studies of diversity and abundance. Because viable stages of many parasites are likely to be present in faeces, our results suggest significant levels of bird-mediated dispersal of parasites (both from avian and other hosts). Our methods revealed much hidden biodiversity, and allowed identification of the individuals who produced the faecal samples to species level, facilitating the study of interaction networks.

An agenda for research and action toward diverse and just futures for life on Earth

Decades of research and policy interventions on biodiversity have insufficiently addressed the dual issues of biodiversity degradation and social justice. New approaches are therefore needed. We devised a research and action agenda that calls for a collective task of revisiting biodiversity toward the goal of sustaining diverse and just futures for life on Earth. Revisiting biodiversity involves critically reflecting on past and present research, policy, and practice concerning biodiversity to inspire creative thinking about the future. The agenda was developed through a 2-year dialogue process that involved close to 300 experts from diverse disciplines and locations. This process was informed by social science insights that show biodiversity research and action is underpinned by choices about how problems are conceptualized. Recognizing knowledge, action, and ethics as inseparable, we synthesized a set of principles that help navigate the task of revisiting biodiversity. The agenda articulates 4 thematic areas for future research. First, researchers need to revisit biodiversity narratives by challenging conceptualizations that exclude diversity and entrench the separation of humans, cultures, economies, and societies from nature. Second, researchers should focus on the relationships between the Anthropocene, biodiversity, and culture by considering humanity and biodiversity as tied together in specific contexts. Third, researchers should focus on nature and economies by better accounting for the interacting structures of economic and financial systems as core drivers of biodiversity loss. Finally, researchers should enable transformative biodiversity research and action by reconfiguring relationships between human and nonhuman communities in and through science, policy, and practice. Revisiting biodiversity necessitates a renewed focus on dialogue among biodiversity communities and beyond that critically reflects on the past to channel research and action toward fostering just and diverse futures for human and nonhuman life on Earth.

The managed-to-invasive species continuum in social and solitary bees and impacts on native bee conservation

Invasive bee species have negative impacts on native bee species and are a source of conservation concern. The invasion of bee species is mediated by the abiotic environment, biotic communities, and propagule pressure of the invader. Each of these factors is further affected by management, which can amplify the magnitude of the impact on native bee species. The ecological traits and behavior of invasive bees also play a role in whether and to what degree they compete with or otherwise negatively affect native bee species. The magnitude of impact of an invasive bee species relates both to its population size in the introduced habitat and the degree of overlap between its resources and the resources native bees require.

Valuation of kelp forest ecosystem services in the Falkland Islands: A case study integrating blue carbon sequestration potential

Kelp forests provide many important ecosystem services to people, including mitigating storm damage, cycling nutrients, and providing commercially-harvestable resources. However, kelp forests’ ability to sequester carbon dioxide, and therefore help regulate the climate, has until recently, been overlooked in assessments of the beneficial services they provide. In this study we incorporate updated knowledge on the potential of kelp to sequester ‘blue carbon’, and use the extensive kelp forests of the Falkland Islands as a case study to assess the value of kelp forest to society through multiple associated ecosystem services. Our analysis shows kelp forests provide a highly valuable range of direct and indirect services, which if managed correctly, will continue to benefit people, both now and in the future. The total estimated value of the Falkland Islands’ kelp system is currently equivalent to ~ £2.69 billion per year (or £3.24 million km-2 year-1). However, the true value of the kelp forest surrounding the Falkland Islands is likely to be higher still, given that our estimate does not account for elements such as associated scientific research, tourism, and cultural services, due to the necessary data currently being unavailable. Similarly, the full value of these highly biodiverse ecosystems in supplying habitat and food to a large range of associated species is crucial, yet extremely difficult to fully quantify. This study illustrates the importance of maintaining kelp ecosystems in a healthy state to ensure they continue to supply valuable ecological processes, functional roles, and ecosystem services, including their overlooked role as significant long-term carbon sinks.

Exploiting common senses: sensory ecology meets wildlife conservation and management

Multidisciplinary approaches to conservation and wildlife management are often effective in addressing complex, multi-factor problems. Emerging fields such as conservation physiology and conservation behaviour can provide innovative solutions and management strategies for target species and systems. Sensory ecology combines the study of 'how animals acquire' and process sensory stimuli from their environments, and the ecological and evolutionary significance of 'how animals respond' to this information. We review the benefits that sensory ecology can bring to wildlife conservation and management by discussing case studies across major taxa and sensory modalities. Conservation practices informed by a sensory ecology approach include the amelioration of sensory traps, control of invasive species, reduction of human-wildlife conflicts and relocation and establishment of new populations of endangered species. We illustrate that sensory ecology can facilitate the understanding of mechanistic ecological and physiological explanations underlying particular conservation issues and also can help develop innovative solutions to ameliorate conservation problems.

The future for Mediterranean wetlands: 50 key issues and 50 important conservation research questions

Wetlands are critically important for biodiversity and human wellbeing, but face a range of challenges. This is especially true in the Mediterranean region, where wetlands support endemic and threatened species and remain integral to human societies, but have been severely degraded in recent decades. Here, in order to raise awareness of future challenges and opportunities for Mediterranean wetlands, and to inform proactive research and management, we identified (a) 50 key issues that might affect Mediterranean wetlands between 2020 and 2050, and (b) 50 important research questions that, if answered, would have the greatest impact on the conservation of Mediterranean wetlands between 2020 and 2050. We gathered ideas through an online survey and review of recent literature. A diverse assessment panel prioritised ideas through an iterative, anonymised, Delphi-like process of scoring, voting and discussion. The prioritised issues included some that are already well known but likely to have a large impact on Mediterranean wetlands in the next 30 years (e.g. the accumulation of dams and reservoirs, plastic pollution and weak governance), and some that are currently overlooked in the context of Mediterranean wetlands (e.g. increasing desalination capacity and development of antimicrobial resistance). Questions largely focused on how best to carry out conservation interventions, or understanding the impacts of threats to inform conservation decision-making. This analysis will support research, policy and practice related to environmental conservation and sustainable development in the Mediterranean, and provides a model for similar analyses elsewhere in the world.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-020-01743-1.

Resilience of Tropical Ecosystems to Ocean Deoxygenation

The impacts of ocean deoxygenation on biodiversity and ecosystem function are well established in temperate regions, and here we illustrate how the study of hypoxia in tropical ecosystems can offer insights of general importance. We first describe how mechanisms of resilience have developed in response to naturally occurring hypoxia across three tropical ecosystems: coral reefs, seagrass beds, and mangrove forests. We then suggest that the vulnerability of these systems to deoxygenation lies in interactions with other stressors that are increasing rapidly in the Anthropocene. Finally, we advocate for the adoption of a broader community- and ecosystem-level perspective that incorporates mutualisms, feedbacks, and mechanisms of self-rescue and recovery to develop a better predictive understanding of the effects of deoxygenation in coastal ecosystems.

Clair C, Coristine L, Higgs E, Smith R, Pellatt M, Beaty C, Cheskey E, Cooke SJ, Crawford L, Davis R, Forbes G, Gadallah F(Z, Kendall P, Mandrak N, Moola F, Parker S, Quayle J, Ray JC, Richardson K, Smith K, Snider J, Smol JP, Sutherland WJ, Vallillee A, White L, Woodley A. Emerging issues for protected and conserved areas in Canada

Horizon scanning is increasingly used in conservation to systematically explore emerging policy and management issues. We present the results of a horizon scan of issues likely to impact management of Canadian protected and conserved areas over the next 5–10 years. Eighty-eight individuals participated, representing a broad community of academics, government and nongovernment organizations, and foundations, including policymakers and managers of protected and conserved areas. This community initially identified 187 issues, which were subsequently triaged to 15 horizon issues by a group of 33 experts using a modified Delphi technique. Results were organized under four broad categories: ( i) emerging effects of climate change in protected and conserved areas design, planning, and management (i.e., large-scale ecosystem changes, species translocation, fire regimes, ecological integrity, and snow patterns); ( ii) Indigenous governance and knowledge systems (i.e., Indigenous governance and Indigenous knowledge and Western science); ( iii) integrated conservation approaches across landscapes and seascapes (i.e., connectivity conservation, integrating ecosystem values and services, freshwater planning); and ( iv) early responses to emerging cumulative, underestimated, and novel threats (i.e., management of cumulative impacts, declining insect biomass, increasing anthropogenic noise, synthetic biology). Overall, the scan identified several emerging issues that require immediate attention to effectively reduce threats, respond to opportunities, and enhance preparedness and capacity to react.

A 2021 Horizon Scan of Emerging Global Biological Conservation Issues

We present the results from our 12th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biological conservation in the future. From a list of 97 topics, our global panel of 25 scientists and practitioners identified the top 15 issues that we believe society may urgently need to address. These issues are either novel in the biological conservation sector or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change in impact at global or regional level. Six issues, such as coral reef deoxygenation and changes in polar coastal productivity, affect marine or coastal ecosystems and seven relate to human and ecosystem-level responses to climate change. Identification of potential forthcoming issues for biological conservation may enable increased preparedness by researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers.

Small hydropower plants as a threat to the endangered pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera

Freshwater mussels are undergoing rapid global declines due to habitat loss and fragmentation, among other factors, but little is known about the effects of small hydropower plants. Here we assessed the impact of small hydropower plants on the abundance and size structure of the imperilled pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera. For this, we sampled 66 sites in three Portuguese rivers (Mente, Rabaçal and Tuela) located upstream and downstream of dams and within the reservoirs. Pearl mussels were significantly more abundant upstream than downstream of dams (97.4% more) or within reservoirs (98.5% more). In addition, juveniles were mostly found upstream of dams. The most significant environmental alterations that explained the observed patterns were related to changes in sediment characteristics (accumulation of fine sediments and organic matter in reservoirs) and water chemistry, most notably suspended solids (highest values in reservoirs) and dissolved oxygen (lowest values in reservoirs). Overall, results show that small hydropower plants can deeply affect pearl mussel populations: specimens almost disappeared from the areas within the reservoirs and sites located downstream only retained adults without signs of recent recruitment. Future management measures devoted to the conservation of pearl mussels should take into account the results reported here to avoid the construction of new dams in pearl mussel rivers; improve management of the river flow in downstream areas; and consider the decommissioning of dams in pearl mussel rivers with a particular attention devoted to the re-naturalization of river sections under the influence of the reservoir and downstream areas.