Survival of the Systems

How greedy is too greedy? A network toy model for evaluating the sustainability of biased evolutionary dynamics

Modern humanity has changed the biosphere at a global scale, threatening its own sustainability. It is claimed that through technology humans maximize the extraction of energy from the natural system towards their own benefit, with rates of appropriation that surpass the time-scales for systemic adaptation. This time-decoupled coevolutionary dynamic is at the core of human societal unsustainability. Here, we developed in silico experiments of an open energy-based flowing network toy model of natural systems and study the effects that greedy evolutionary strategies, resembling human societal demands, have upon the performance and scarcity tolerance of the system. We aim to determine the flexibility that those biased evolutionary dynamics have for matching or surpassing natural evolution outcomes. We studied four different indexes of system's growth and development (total system throughflow (TST), average mutual information, ascendency and entropy difference) and compare their scarcity tolerance and performance outcomes with respect to four different greedy scenarios. The results showed that greedy strategies rarely surpassed the tolerance and performance achieved by natural systemic evolution. The nature of the greedy scenarios developed were closely related to increases in TST and therefore, we emphasized this comparison. Here, the maximum percentage of greedy networks capable of surpassing natural dynamics was around one-third (approx. [Formula: see text]). However, results suggest the existence of a space parameter where local increases of energy flow can outperform the outcomes of natural systemic evolution, but no evident network property seems to characterize those greedy networks. A mild inverse relationship was found between the number of links that greedy nodes have towards the output and their capacity to outpass the control evolution. As many of the human societal effect upon biospheric processes have dissipative byproducts, knowing that such dynamics might diminish the systems tolerance and performance suggest care in their (ab)use. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis

How did human societies evolve to become a major force of global change? What dynamics can lead societies on a trajectory of global sustainability? The astonishing growth in human population, economic activity and environmental impact has brought these questions to the fore. This theme issue pulls together a variety of traditions that seek to address these questions using different theories and methods. In this Introduction, we review and organize the major strands of work on how the Anthropocene evolved, how evolutionary dynamics are influencing sustainability efforts today, and what principles, strategies and capacities will be important to guide us towards global sustainability in the future. We present a set of synthetic insights and highlight frontiers for future research efforts which could contribute to a consolidated synthesis. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Spread of the cycles: a feedback perspective on the Anthropocene

What propelled the human 'revolutions' that started the Anthropocene? and what could speed humanity out of trouble? Here, we focus on the role of reinforcing feedback cycles, often comprised of diverse, unrelated elements (e.g. fire, grass, humans), in propelling abrupt and/or irreversible, revolutionary changes. We suggest that differential 'spread of the cycles' has been critical to the past human revolutions of fire use, agriculture, rise of complex states and industrialization. For each revolution, we review and map out proposed reinforcing feedback cycles, and describe how new systems built on previous ones, propelling us into the Anthropocene. We argue that to escape a bleak Anthropocene will require abruptly shifting from existing unsustainable 'vicious cycles', to alternative sustainable 'virtuous cycles' that can outspread and outpersist them. This will need to be complemented by a revolutionary cultural shift from maximizing growth to maximizing persistence (sustainability). To achieve that we suggest that non-human elements need to be brought back into the feedback cycles underlying human cultures and associated measures of progress. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Does Gaia Play Dice? Simple Models of Non-Darwinian Selection

In this article, we introduce some simple models, based on rolling dice, to explore mechanisms proposed to explain planetary habitability. The idea is to study these selection mechanisms in an analytically tractable setting, isolating their consequences from other details which can confound or obscure their effect in more realistic models. We find that the observable of interest, the face value shown on the die, "improves" over time in all models. For two of the more popular ideas, Selection by Survival and Sequential Selection, this is down to sampling effects. A modified version of Sequential Selection, Sequential Selection with Memory, implies a statistical tendency for systems to improve over time. We discuss the implications of this and its relationship to the ideas of the "Inhabitance Paradox" and the "Gaian bottleneck."

Evolution of the Okvik/Old Bering Sea culture of the Bering Strait as a major transition

Great transitions are thought to embody major shifts in locus of selection, labour diversification and communication systems. Such expectations are relevant for biological and cultural systems as decades of research has demonstrated similar dynamics within the evolution of culture. The evolution of the Neo-Inuit cultural tradition in the Bering Strait provides an ideal context for examination of cultural transitions. The Okvik/Old Bering Sea (Okvik/OBS) culture of Bering Strait is the first representative of the Neo-Inuit tradition. Archaeological evidence drawn for settlement and subsistence data, technological traditions and mortuary contexts suggests that Okvik/OBS fits the definition of a major transition given change in the nature of group membership (from families to political groups with social ranking), task organization (emergent labour specialization) and communication (advent of complex art forms conveying social and ideological information). This permits us to develop a number of implications about the evolutionary process recognizing that transitions may occur on three scales: (1) ephemeral variants, as for example, simple technological entities; (2) integrated systems, spanning modular technology to socio-economic strategies; and (3) simultaneous change across all scales with emergent properties. This article is part of the theme issue 'Human socio-cultural evolution in light of evolutionary transitions'.

A resilience sensing system for the biosphere

We are in a climate and ecological emergency, where climate change and direct anthropogenic interference with the biosphere are risking abrupt and/or irreversible changes that threaten our life-support systems. Efforts are underway to increase the resilience of some ecosystems that are under threat, yet collective awareness and action are modest at best. Here, we highlight the potential for a biosphere resilience sensing system to make it easier to see where things are going wrong, and to see whether deliberate efforts to make things better are working. We focus on global resilience sensing of the terrestrial biosphere at high spatial and temporal resolution through satellite remote sensing, utilizing the generic mathematical behaviour of complex systems-loss of resilience corresponds to slower recovery from perturbations, gain of resilience equates to faster recovery. We consider what subset of biosphere resilience remote sensing can monitor, critically reviewing existing studies. Then we present illustrative, global results for vegetation resilience and trends in resilience over the last 20 years, from both satellite data and model simulations. We close by discussing how resilience sensing nested across global, biome-ecoregion, and local ecosystem scales could aid management and governance at these different scales, and identify priorities for further work. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years'.

Rate-induced collapse in evolutionary systems

Recent work has highlighted the possibility of 'rate-induced tipping', in which a system undergoes an abrupt transition when a perturbation exceeds a critical rate of change. Here, we argue that this is widely applicable to evolutionary systems: collapse, or extinction, may occur when external changes occur too fast for evolutionary adaptation to keep up. To bridge existing theoretical frameworks, we develop a minimal evolutionary-ecological model showing that rate-induced extinction and the established notion of 'evolutionary rescue' are fundamentally two sides of the same coin: the failure of one implies the other, and vice versa. We compare the minimal model's behaviour with that of a more complex model in which the large-scale dynamics emerge from the interactions of many individual agents; in both cases, there is a well-defined threshold rate to induce extinction, and a consistent scaling law for that rate as a function of timescale. Due to the fundamental nature of the underlying mechanism, we suggest that a vast range of evolutionary systems should in principle be susceptible to rate-induced collapse. This would include ecosystems on all scales as well as human societies; further research is warranted.

The Climate Change Challenge: A Review of the Barriers and Solutions to Deliver a Paris Solution

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have continued to grow persistently since 1750. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) entered into force in 1994 to stabilize GHG emissions. Since then, the increasingly harmful impacts of global climate change and repeated scientific warnings about future risks have not been enough to change the emissions trend and enforce policy actions. This paper synthesizes the climate change challenges and the insofar insufficient mitigation responses via an integrated literature review. The fossil industry, mainstream economic thinking, national rather than international interests, and political strive for short-term interests present key barriers to climate mitigation. A continuation of such trends is reflected in the Dice model, leading to a 3.5 °C temperature increase by 2100. Despite receiving the Nobel Prize for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis via the Dice model, increases in global mean temperatures overshooting the 1.5 °C to 2 °C Paris targets imply an intensified disruption in the human–climate system. Past and present policy delays and climate disruption pave the way for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering solutions with largely unknown and potentially dangerous side effects. This paper argues against SRM geoengineering and evaluates critical mitigation solutions leading to a decrease in global temperatures without overshooting the Paris targets. The essential drivers and barriers are discussed through a unified approach to tipping points in the human–climate system. The scientific literature presents many economically and technologically viable solutions and the policy and measures required to implement them. The present paper identifies the main barriers to integrating them in a globally cooperative way, presenting an efficient, long-term, and ethical policy approach to climate change.

Feedbacks in ecology and evolution

Ecology and evolutionary biology have focused on how organisms fit the environment. Less attention has been given to the idea that organisms can also modify their environment, and that these modifications can feed back to the organism, thus providing a key factor for their persistence and evolution. There are at least three independent lines of evidence emphasizing these biological feedback processes at different scales: niche construction (population scale); alternative biome states (community scale); and the Gaia hypothesis (planetary scale). These feedback processes make us rethink traditional concepts like niche and adaptation. We argue that organism-environment feedbacks must become a regular part of ecological thinking, especially now that the Earth is quickly changing.

The Evolution of Microbial Facilitation: Sociogenesis, Symbiogenesis, and Transition in Individuality

Metabolic cooperation is widespread, and it seems to be a ubiquitous and easily evolvable interaction in the microbial domain. Mutual metabolic cooperation, like syntrophy, is thought to have a crucial role in stabilizing interactions and communities, for example biofilms. Furthermore, cooperation is expected to feed back positively to the community under higher-level selection. In certain cases, cooperation can lead to a transition in individuality, when freely reproducing, unrelated entities (genes, microbes, etc.) irreversibly integrate to form a new evolutionary unit. The textbook example is endosymbiosis, prevalent among eukaryotes but virtually lacking among prokaryotes. Concerning the ubiquity of syntrophic microbial communities, it is intriguing why evolution has not lead to more transitions in individuality in the microbial domain. We set out to distinguish syntrophy-specific aspects of major transitions, to investigate why a transition in individuality within a syntrophic pair or community is so rare. We review the field of metabolic communities to identify potential evolutionary trajectories that may lead to a transition. Community properties, like joint metabolic capacity, functional profile, guild composition, assembly and interaction patterns are important concepts that may not only persist stably but according to thought-provoking theories, may provide the heritable information at a higher level of selection. We explore these ideas, relating to concepts of multilevel selection and of informational replication, to assess their relevance in the debate whether microbial communities may inherit community-level information or not.

Function, persistence, and selection: Generalizing the selected-effect account of function adequately

The selected effect account is regarded by many as one of the most attractive accounts of function. This account assumes that the function of a trait is what it has been selected for. Recently, it has been generalized by Justin Garson to include cases in which selection is understood as a simple sorting process, i.e., a selection process between entities that do not reproduce. However, once extended, this generalized selected effect account seems to ascribe functions to entities for which it looks unintuitive to do so. For instance, the hardness of rocks on a beach being differentially eroded by waves would be ascribed the function of resisting erosion. Garson provides one central argument why, despite appearance, one should not ascribe functions in cases of such sorting processes. In this paper, I start by presenting his argument, which hinges on whether a collection of entities form a population. I find it wanting. I argue instead that some selection processes are evolutionarily more or less interesting and that when a selection process is regarded as evolutionarily uninteresting, it will yield an uninteresting form of function rather than a reason for withholding the concept of function altogether.

Earth's Complexity Is Non-Computable: The Limits of Scaling Laws, Nonlinearity and Chaos

Current physics commonly qualifies the Earth system as 'complex' because it includes numerous different processes operating over a large range of spatial scales, often modelled as exhibiting non-linear chaotic response dynamics and power scaling laws. This characterization is based on the fundamental assumption that the Earth's complexity could, in principle, be modeled by (surrogated by) a numerical algorithm if enough computing power were granted. Yet, similar numerical algorithms also surrogate different systems having the same processes and dynamics, such as Mars or Jupiter, although being qualitatively different from the Earth system. Here, we argue that understanding the Earth as a complex system requires a consideration of the Gaia hypothesis: the Earth is a complex system because it instantiates life-and therefore an autopoietic, metabolic-repair (M,R) organization-at a planetary scale. This implies that the Earth's complexity has formal equivalence to a self-referential system that inherently is non-algorithmic and, therefore, cannot be surrogated and simulated in a Turing machine. We discuss the consequences of this, with reference to in-silico climate models, tipping points, planetary boundaries, and planetary feedback loops as units of adaptive evolution and selection.