How useful are thermal vulnerability indices?

Genome-wide sequencing reveals geographical variations in the thermal adaptation of an aquaculture species with frequent seedling introductions

Climate change and human activity are essential factors affecting marine biodiversity and aquaculture, and understanding the impacts of human activities on the genetic structure to increasing high temperatures is crucial for sustainable aquaculture and marine biodiversity conservation. As a commercially important bivalve, the Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum is widely distributed along the coast of China, and it has been frequently introduced from Fujian Province, China, to other regions for aquaculture. In this study, we collected four populations of Manila clams from different areas to evaluate their thermal tolerance by measuring cardiac performance and genetic variations using whole-genome resequencing. The upper thermal limits of the clams showed high variations within and among populations. Different populations displayed divergent genetic compositions, and the admixed population was partly derived from the Zhangzhou population in Fujian Province, implying a complex genomic landscape under the influence of local genetic sources and human introductions. Multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were associated with the cardiac functional traits, and some of these SNPs can affect the codon usage and the structural stability of the resulting protein. This study shed light on the importance of establishing long-term ecological and genetic monitoring programs at the local level to enhance resilience to future climate change.

Thermal sensitivity of Rhinella arenarum tadpole at low concentrations of dimethoate pesticides

One of the main causes of contamination of aquatic environments, which affects biotic communities, is the use of pesticides in agricultural regions. Amphibians are considered good bio-indicators of aquatic pollution, because they are one of the most susceptible groups to pollution. Several studies suggest that both pollution and climate change produce synergistic effects in amphibians which amplify the toxicity afecting survival, and malformations with an increase in temperature. We studied the sensitivity of sublethal concentrations of dimethoate in Rhinella arenarum tadpoles on two fitness related thermal traits including locomotor swimming performance and thermal tolerance limits (CTmax = critical thermal maximum and CTmin = critical thermal minimum). The locomotor performance of R. arenarum tadpoles decreased with increasing sublethal dimethoate concentrations up to ∼60 % at intermediates dimethoate concentration. The tadpoles showed a tendency to decrease their tolerance to high temperatures (CTmax) with increasing dimethoate concentration around ∼0.5 °C, however no significant differences were found among treatments. Similarly, tadpoles showed decreases in their cold resistance (CTmin) with dimethoate concentrations, around 1 °C the high concentrations of dimethoate. The increase of atypical climatic events, such as heat waves may put R. arenarum tadpoles at greater risk when exposed to dimethoate. Our results show that the sublethal concentrations of the dimethoate pesticide may affect the fitness and survival of the larvae of R. arenarum in natural, and seminatural enviroments.

High-resolution climate data reveal an increasing risk of warming-driven activity restriction for diurnal and nocturnal lizards

Widespread species experience a variety of climates across their distribution, which can structure their thermal tolerance, and ultimately, responses to climate change. For ectotherms, activity is highly dependent on temperature, its variability and availability of favourable microclimates. Thermal exposure and tolerance may be structured by the availability and heterogeneity of microclimates for species living along temperature and/or precipitation gradients - but patterns and mechanisms underlying such gradients are poorly understood. We measured critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) for five populations of two sympatric lizard species, a nocturnal gecko (Chondrodactylus bibronii) and a diurnal skink (Trachylepis variegata) and recorded hourly thermal variation for a year in three types of microclimate relevant to the activity of lizards (crevice, full sun and partial shade) for six sites across a precipitation gradient. Using a combination of physiological and modelling approaches, we derived warming tolerance for the present and the end of the century. In the present climate, we found an overall wider thermal tolerance for the nocturnal species relative to the diurnal species, and no variation in CTmax but variable CTmin along the precipitation gradient for both species. However, warming tolerances varied significantly over the course of the day, across months and microhabitats. The diurnal skink was most restricted in its daily activity in the three driest sites with up to six daily hours of restricted activity in the open (i.e. outside refugia) during the summer months, while the impacts for the nocturnal gecko were less severe, due to its higher CTmax and night activity. With climate change, lizards will experience more months where activity is restricted and increased exposure to high temperatures even within the more sheltered microhabitats. Together our results highlight the importance of considering the relevant spatiotemporal scale and habitat for understanding the thermal exposure of diurnal and nocturnal species.

How seasonality influences the thermal biology of lizards with different thermoregulatory strategies: a meta-analysis

Ectotherms that maintain thermal balance in the face of varying climates should be able to colonise a wide range of habitats. In lizards, thermoregulation usually appears as a variety of behaviours that buffer external influences over physiology. Basking species rely on solar radiation to raise body temperatures and usually show high thermoregulatory precision. By contrast, species that do not bask are often constrained by climatic conditions in their habitats, thus having lower thermoregulatory precision. While much focus has been given to the effects of mean habitat temperatures, relatively less is known about how seasonality affects the thermal biology of lizards on a macroecological scale. Considering the current climate crisis, assessing how lizards cope with temporal variations in environmental temperature is essential to understand better how these organisms will fare under climate change. Activity body temperatures (Tb ) represent the internal temperature of an animal measured in nature during its active period (i.e. realised thermal niche), and preferred body temperatures (Tpref ) are those selected by an animal in a laboratory thermal gradient that lacks thermoregulatory costs (i.e. fundamental thermal niche). Both traits form the bulk of thermal ecology research and are often studied in the context of seasonality. In this study, we used a meta-analysis to test how environmental temperature seasonality influences the seasonal variation in the Tb and Tpref of lizards that differ in thermoregulatory strategy (basking versus non-basking). Based on 333 effect sizes from 137 species, we found that Tb varied over a greater magnitude than Tpref across seasons. Variations in Tb were not influenced by environmental temperature seasonality; however, body size and thermoregulatory strategy mediated Tb responses. Specifically, larger species were subjected to greater seasonal variations in Tb , and basking species endured greater seasonal variations in Tb compared to non-basking species. On the other hand, the seasonal variation in Tpref increased with environmental temperature seasonality regardless of body size. Thermoregulatory strategy also influenced Tpref , suggesting that behaviour has an important role in mediating Tpref responses to seasonal variations in the thermal landscape. After controlling for phylogenetic effects, we showed that Tb and Tpref varied significantly across lizard families. Taken together, our results support the notion that the relationship between thermal biology responses and climatic parameters can be taxon and trait dependent. Our results also showcase the importance of considering ecological and behavioural aspects in macroecological studies. We further highlight current systematic, geographical, and knowledge gaps in thermal ecology research. Our work should benefit those who aim to understand more fully how seasonality shapes thermal biology in lizards, ultimately contributing to the goal of elucidating the evolution of temperature-sensitive traits in ectotherms.

Heat and desiccation tolerances predict bee abundance under climate change

Climate change could pose an urgent threat to pollinators, with critical ecological and economic consequences. However, for most insect pollinator species, we lack the long-term data and mechanistic evidence that are necessary to identify climate-driven declines and predict future trends. Here we document 16 years of abundance patterns for a hyper-diverse bee assemblage1 in a warming and drying region2, link bee declines with experimentally determined heat and desiccation tolerances, and use climate sensitivity models to project bee communities into the future. Aridity strongly predicted bee abundance for 71% of 665 bee populations (species × ecosystem combinations). Bee taxa that best tolerated heat and desiccation increased the most over time. Models forecasted declines for 46% of species and predicted more homogeneous communities dominated by drought-tolerant taxa, even while total bee abundance may remain unchanged. Such community reordering could reduce pollination services, because diverse bee assemblages typically maximize pollination for plant communities3. Larger-bodied bees also dominated under intermediate to high aridity, identifying body size as a valuable trait for understanding how climate-driven shifts in bee communities influence pollination4. We provide evidence that climate change directly threatens bee diversity, indicating that bee conservation efforts should account for the stress of aridity on bee physiology.

Ecological responses of squamate reptiles to nocturnal warming

Nocturnal temperatures are increasing at a pace exceeding diurnal temperatures in most parts of the world. The role of warmer nocturnal temperatures in animal ecology has received scant attention and most studies focus on diurnal or daily descriptors of thermal environments' temporal trends. Yet, available evidence from plant and insect studies suggests that organisms can exhibit contrasting physiological responses to diurnal and nocturnal warming. Limiting studies to diurnal trends can thus result in incomplete and misleading interpretations of the ability of species to cope with global warming. Although they are expected to be impacted by warmer nocturnal temperatures, insufficient data are available regarding the night-time ecology of vertebrate ectotherms. Here, we illustrate the complex effects of nocturnal warming on squamate reptiles, a keystone group of vertebrate ectotherms. Our review includes discussion of diurnal and nocturnal ectotherms, but we mainly focus on diurnal species for which nocturnal warming affects a period dedicated to physiological recovery, and thus may perturb activity patterns and energy balance. We first summarise the physical consequences of nocturnal warming on habitats used by squamate reptiles. Second, we describe how such changes can alter the energy balance of diurnal species. We illustrate this with empirical data from the asp viper (Vipera aspis) and common wall lizard (Podarcis muralis), two diurnal species found throughout western Europe. Third, we make use of a mechanistic approach based on an energy-balance model to draw general conclusions about the effects of nocturnal temperatures. Fourth, we examine how warmer nights may affect squamates over their lifetime, with potential consequences on individual fitness and population dynamics. We review quantitative evidence for such lifetime effects using recent data derived from a range of studies on the European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara). Finally, we consider the broader eco-evolutionary ramifications of nocturnal warming and highlight several research questions that require future attention. Our work emphasises the importance of considering the joint influence of diurnal and nocturnal warming on the responses of vertebrate ectotherms to climate warming.

Bringing traits back into the equation: A roadmap to understand species redistribution

Ecological and evolutionary theories have proposed that species traits should be important in mediating species responses to contemporary climate change; yet, empirical evidence has so far provided mixed evidence for the role of behavioral, life history, or ecological characteristics in facilitating or hindering species range shifts. As such, the utility of trait-based approaches to predict species redistribution under climate change has been called into question. We develop the perspective, supported by evidence, that trait variation, if used carefully can have high potential utility, but that past analyses have in many cases failed to identify an explanatory value for traits by not fully embracing the complexity of species range shifts. First, we discuss the relevant theory linking species traits to range shift processes at the leading (expansion) and trailing (contraction) edges of species distributions and highlight the need to clarify the mechanistic basis of trait-based approaches. Second, we provide a brief overview of range shift-trait studies and identify new opportunities for trait integration that consider range-specific processes and intraspecific variability. Third, we explore the circumstances under which environmental and biotic context dependencies are likely to affect our ability to identify the contribution of species traits to range shift processes. Finally, we propose that revealing the role of traits in shaping species redistribution may likely require accounting for methodological variation arising from the range shift estimation process as well as addressing existing functional, geographical, and phylogenetic biases. We provide a series of considerations for more effectively integrating traits as well as extrinsic and methodological factors into species redistribution research. Together, these analytical approaches promise stronger mechanistic and predictive understanding that can help society mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Weak correlations among leaf thermal metrics, economic traits and damages under natural heatwaves

The frequency and intensity of heatwaves are increasing around the world, causing severe damages to plants, but whether leaf thermal metrics is in line with leaf economic spectrum is still controversial. Here, we measured leaf damage ratio, leaf thermal metrics (tolerance and sensitivity) and economic traits of 131 woody species across five cities along the Yangtze River after a two-month natural extreme temperature event. We found that leaf thermal sensitivity but not thermal tolerance was correlated with leaf damage ratio, and the relationships between leaf thermal metrics and economic traits were weak, indicating that leaf thermal adaptation may be independent from leaf carbon construction. This study suggests a potential indicator for predicting plant survival under heatwaves, urging future research to explore more physiological traits to comprehensively understand plant heat responses and adaptations.

Heatwaves are detrimental to fertility in the viviparous tsetse fly

Heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change, pushing animals beyond physiological limits. While most studies focus on survival limits, sublethal effects on fertility tend to occur below lethal thresholds, and consequently can be as important for population viability. Typically, male fertility is more heat-sensitive than female fertility, yet direct comparisons are limited. Here, we measured the effect of experimental heatwaves on tsetse flies, Glossina pallidipes, disease vectors and unusual live-bearing insects of sub-Saharan Africa. We exposed males or females to a 3-day heatwave peaking at 36, 38 or 40°C for 2 h, and a 25°C control, monitoring mortality and reproduction over six weeks. For a heatwave peaking at 40°C, mortality was 100%, while a 38°C peak resulted in only 8% acute mortality. Females exposed to the 38°C heatwave experienced a one-week delay in producing offspring, whereas no such delay occurred in males. Over six weeks, heatwaves resulted in equivalent fertility loss in both sexes. Combined with mortality, this lead to a 10% population decline over six weeks compared to the control. Furthermore, parental heatwave exposure gave rise to a female-biased offspring sex ratio. Ultimately, thermal limits of both survival and fertility should be considered when assessing climate change vulnerability.

Thermal limits of survival and reproduction depend on stress duration: A case study of Drosophila suzukii

Studies of ectotherm responses to heat extremes often rely on assessing absolute critical limits for heat coma or death (CTmax), however, such single parameter metrics ignore the importance of stress exposure duration. Furthermore, population persistence may be affected at temperatures considerably below CTmax through decreased reproductive output. Here we investigate the relationship between tolerance duration and severity of heat stress across three ecologically relevant life-history traits (productivity, coma and mortality) using the global agricultural pest Drosophila suzukii. For the first time, we show that for sublethal reproductive traits, tolerance duration decreases exponentially with increasing temperature (R2 > 0.97), thereby extending the Thermal Death Time framework recently developed for mortality and coma. Using field micro-environmental temperatures, we show how thermal stress can lead to considerable reproductive loss at temperatures with limited heat mortality highlighting the importance of including limits to reproductive performance in ecological studies of heat stress vulnerability.

Using warming tolerances to predict understory plant responses to climate change

Climate change is pushing species towards and potentially beyond their critical thermal limits. The extent to which species can cope with temperatures exceeding their critical thermal limits is still uncertain. To better assess species' responses to warming, we compute the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) as a thermal vulnerability index, using species' upper thermal limits (the temperature at the warm limit of their distribution range) minus the local habitat temperature actually experienced at a given location. This metric is useful to predict how much more warming species can tolerate before negative impacts are expected to occur. Here we set up a cross-continental transplant experiment involving five regions distributed along a latitudinal gradient across Europe (43° N-61° N). Transplant sites were located in dense and open forests stands, and at forest edges and in interiors. We estimated the warming tolerance for 12 understory plant species common in European temperate forests. During 3 years, we examined the effects of the warming tolerance of each species across all transplanted locations on local plant performance, in terms of survival, height, ground cover, flowering probabilities and flower number. We found that the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) of the 12 studied understory species was significantly different across Europe and varied by up to 8°C. In general, ΔTniche were smaller (less positive) towards the forest edge and in open stands. Plant performance (growth and reproduction) increased with increasing ΔTniche across all 12 species. Our study demonstrated that ΔTniche of understory plant species varied with macroclimatic differences among regions across Europe, as well as in response to forest microclimates, albeit to a lesser extent. Our findings support the hypothesis that plant performance across species decreases in terms of growth and reproduction as local temperature conditions reach or exceed the warm limit of the focal species.

A process framework for integrating stressor-response functions into cumulative effects models

Stressor-response (SR) functions quantify ecological responses to natural environmental variation or anthropogenic stressors. They are also core drivers of cumulative effects (CE) models, which are increasingly recognized as essential management tools to grapple with the diffuse footprint of human impacts. Here, we provide a process framework for the identification, development, and integration of SR functions into CE models, and highlight their consequential properties, behaviour, criteria for selecting appropriate stressors and responses, and general approaches for deriving them. Management objectives (and causal effect pathways) will determine the ultimate stressor and target response variables of interest (i.e., individual growth/survival, population size, community structure, ecosystem processes), but data availability will constrain whether proxies need to be used for the target stressor or response variables. Available data and confidence in underlying mechanisms will determine whether empirical or mechanistic (theoretical) SR functions are optimal. Uncertainty in underlying SR functions is often the primary source of error in CE modelling, and monitoring outcomes through adaptive management to iteratively refine parameterization of SR functions is a key element of model application. Dealing with stressor interactions is an additional challenge, and in the absence of known or suspected interaction mechanisms, controlling main effects should remain the primary focus. Indicators of suspected interaction presence (i.e., much larger or smaller responses to stressor reduction than expected during monitoring) should be confirmed through adaptive management cycles or targeted stressor manipulations. Where possible, management decisions should selectively take advantage of interactions to strategically mitigate stressor impacts (i.e., by using antagonisms to suppress stressor impacts, and by using synergisms to efficiently reduce them).

Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus Influences Its Vector's Endosymbionts but Not Its Thermotolerance

The barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) of cereals is thought to substantially increase the high-temperature tolerance of its aphid vector, Rhopalosiphum padi, which may enhance its transmission efficiency. This is based on experiments with North American strains of BYDV and R. padi. Here, we independently test these by measuring the temperature tolerance, via Critical Thermal Maximum (CTmax) and knockdown time, of Australian R. padi infected with a local BYDV isolate. We further consider the interaction between BYDV transmission, the primary endosymbiont of R. padi (Buchnera aphidicola), and a transinfected secondary endosymbiont (Rickettsiella viridis) which reduces the thermotolerance of other aphid species. We failed to find an increase in tolerance to high temperatures in BYDV-infected aphids or an impact of Rickettsiella on thermotolerance. However, BYDV interacted with R. padi endosymbionts in unexpected ways, suppressing the density of Buchnera and Rickettsiella. BYDV density was also fourfold higher in Rickettsiella-infected aphids. Our findings indicate that BYDV does not necessarily increase the temperature tolerance of the aphid transmission vector to increase its transmission potential, at least for the genotype combinations tested here. The interactions between BYDV and Rickettsiella suggest new ways in which aphid endosymbionts may influence how BYDV spreads, which needs further testing in a field context.

Low heat tolerance and high desiccation resistance in nocturnal bees and the implications for nocturnal pollination under climate change

Predicting insect responses to climate change is essential for preserving ecosystem services and biodiversity. Due to high daytime temperatures and low humidity levels, nocturnal insects are expected to have lower heat and desiccation tolerance compared to diurnal species. We estimated the lower (CTMin) and upper (CTMax) thermal limits of Megalopta, a group of neotropical, forest-dwelling bees. We calculated warming tolerance (WT) as a metric to assess vulnerability to global warming and measured survival rates during simulated heatwaves and desiccation stress events. We also assessed the impact of body size and reproductive status (ovary area) on bees' thermal limits. Megalopta displayed lower CTMin, CTMax, and WTs than diurnal bees (stingless bees, orchid bees, and carpenter bees), but exhibited similar mortality during simulated heatwave and higher desiccation tolerance. CTMin increased with increasing body size across all bees but decreased with increasing body size and ovary area in Megalopta, suggesting a reproductive cost or differences in thermal environments. CTMax did not increase with increasing body size or ovary area. These results indicate a greater sensitivity of Megalopta to temperature than humidity and reinforce the idea that nocturnal insects are thermally constrained, which might threaten pollination services in nocturnal contexts during global warming.

Evaluation of species thermal sensitivity with individual-based physiological performance

Ignoring intraspecific variations can prevent us from accurately assessing species' thermal sensitivity to global warming. Individual-based physiological performance provides a feasible solution to depict species' thermal sensitivity using a bottom-up approach. We measured the cardiac performance of intertidal bivalves (1159 individuals from multiple populations of six bivalves), determined the upper thermal limit of each individual, calculated the proportions of individuals suffering sublethal/lethal heat stress, and mapped sensitive regions to high temperatures. Results showed that high inter-individual variations of physiological performance existed in levels of populations and species, and species' thermal sensitivity was positively related to the intraspecific variations of heat tolerance. This bottom-up approach scaled up from individual, population to species emphasizes the importance of individual-based physiology performance in assessing thermal sensitivity across different hierarchical levels and enables better evaluating and forecasting of species responses to global warming.

Differential effects of parental and developmental temperatures on larval thermal adaptation in oviparous and viviparous model fish species

Phenotypic plasticity has been identified as a major mechanism of response to changing temperatures. Parental effects are potentially important drivers of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, while developmental plasticity also plays a key role in generating phenotypic variation. However, little is known of the interaction between parental effects and developmental plasticity on the thermal phenotypes of fishes with different reproductive modes (i.e. oviparous vs. viviparous). To understand the contributions of inter- and intra-generational plasticity of thermal phenotypes (preferred temperature, avoidance temperatures, critical thermal thresholds) in fishes with different reproductive modes, we carried out a factorial experiment in which both breeding parents and offspring were exposed to lower (22 °C) or higher (28 °C) temperatures, using zebrafish (Danio rerio) and guppies (Poecilia reticulata) as representative oviparous and viviparous species. We found that offspring thermal preference and avoidance of both species were significantly influenced by parental effects and developmental plasticity, with higher thermal preference and avoidance consistent with higher background (parental) temperature treatments. However, parental effects were only found to impose significant effect on the thermal tolerances of guppies. The findings suggest that phenotypic plasticity, both within and across generations, may be an important mechanism to adapt to rapid climate changes, and that future temperature fluctuations may impose more profound effects on viviparous fish species in general.

Facing lethal temperatures: Heat-shock response in desert and temperate ants

Global climate changes may cause profound effects on species adaptation, particularly in ectotherms for whom even moderate warmer temperatures can lead to disproportionate heat failure. Still, several organisms evolved to endure high desert temperatures. Here, we describe the thermal tolerance survival and the transcriptomic heat stress response of three genera of desert (Cataglyphis, Melophorus, and Ocymyrmex) and two of temperate ants (Formica and Myrmica) and explore convergent and specific adaptations. We found heat stress led to either a reactive or a constitutive response in desert ants: Cataglyphis holgerseni and Melophorus bagoti differentially regulated very few transcripts in response to heat (0.12% and 0.14%, respectively), while Cataglyphis bombycina and Ocymyrmex robustior responded with greater expression alterations (respectively affecting 0.6% and 1.53% of their transcriptomes). These two responsive mechanisms-reactive and constitutive-were related to individual thermal tolerance survival and convergently evolved in distinct desert ant genera. Moreover, in comparison with desert species, the two temperate ants differentially expressed thousands of transcripts more in response to heat stress (affecting 8% and 12.71% of F. fusca and Myr. sabuleti transcriptomes). In summary, we show that heat adaptation in thermophilic ants involved changes in the expression response. Overall, desert ants show reduced transcriptional alterations even when under high thermal stress, and their expression response may be either constitutive or reactive to temperature increase.

Life cycle complexity and body mass drive erratic changes in climate vulnerability across ontogeny in a seasonally migrating butterfly

Physiological traits are often used for vulnerability assessments of organismal responses to climate change. Trait values can change dramatically over the life cycle of organisms but are typically assessed at a single developmental stage. Reconciling ontogenetic changes in physiological traits with vulnerability assessments often reveals early life-stage vulnerabilities. The degree to which ontogenetic changes in physiological traits are due to changes in body mass over development versus stage-specific responses determines the degree to which mass can be used as a proxy for vulnerability. Here, we use the painted lady butterfly, Vanessa cardui, to test ontogenetic changes in two physiological traits, the acute thermal sensitivity of routine metabolic rate (RMR Q10) and the critical thermal maximum (CTmax). RMR Q10 generally followed ontogenetic changes in body mass, with stages characterized by smaller body mass exhibiting lower acute thermal sensitivity. However, CTmax was largely decoupled from ontogenetic changes in body mass. In contrast with trends from other studies showing increasing vulnerability among progressively earlier developmental stages, our study revealed highly erratic patterns of vulnerability across ontogeny. Specifically, we found the lowest joint-trait vulnerability (both RMR Q10 and CTmax) in the earliest developmental stage we tested (3rd instar larvae), the highest vulnerabilities in the next two developmental stages (4th and 5th instar larvae), and reduced vulnerability into the pupal and adult stages. Our study supports growing evidence of mechanistic decoupling of physiology across developmental stages and suggests that body mass is not a universal proxy for all physiological trait indicators of climate vulnerability.

Conservation of thermal physiology in tropical intertidal snails following an evolutionary transition to a cooler ecosystem: climate change implications

Predictions for animal responses to climate warming usually assume that thermal physiology is adapted to present-day environments, and seldom consider the influence of evolutionary background. Little is known about the conservation of warm-adapted physiology following an evolutionary transition to a cooler environment. We used cardiac thermal performance curves (cTPCs) of six neritid gastropod species to study physiological thermal trait variation associated with a lineage transition from warmer rocky shores to cooler mangroves. We distinguished between functional thermal performance traits, related to energy homeostasis (slope gradient, slope curvature, HRmax, maximum cardiac activity and Topt, the temperature that maximizes cardiac activity) and a trait that limits performance (ULT, the upper lethal temperature). Considering the theory of optimal thermal performance, we predicted that the functional traits should be under greater selective pressure to change directionally and in magnitude than the thermal limit, which is redundant in the cooler environment. We found little variation in all traits across species, habitats and ecosystems, despite a ~20°C reduction in maximum habitat temperature in the mangrove species over 50 million years. While slope gradient was significantly lowered in the mangrove species, the effect difference was negated by greater thermal plasticity in the rocky shore species. ULT showed the least variation and suggested thermal specialization in the warmest habitat studied. The observed muted variation of the functional traits among the species may be explained by their limited role in energy acquisition and rather their association with heat tolerance adaptation, which is redundant in the mangrove species. These findings have implications for the conservation of habitat of intertidal gastropods that transition to cooler environments. Furthermore, they highlight the significance of evolutionary history and physiological conservation when predicting species responses to climate change.

A simple method to account for thermal boundary layers during the estimation of CTmax in small ectotherms

As temperatures rise, understanding how ectotherms will become impacted by thermal stress is of critical importance. In this context, many researchers quantify critical temperatures - these are the upper (CTmax) and lower (CTmin) thermal limits at which organisms can no longer function. Most studies estimate CTs using bath-based methods where organisms are submerged within a set thermal environment. Plate-based methods (i.e. hot plates), however, offer huge opportunity for automation and are readily available in many lab settings. Plates, however, generate a unidirectional thermal boundary layer above their surface which means that the temperatures experienced by organisms of different sizes is different. This boundary layer effect can bias estimates of critical temperatures. Here, we test the hypothesis that biases in critical temperature estimation on hot plates are driven by organism height. We also quantify the composition of the boundary layer in order to correct for these biases. We assayed four differently sized species of UK ants for their CTmax in dry baths (with no boundary layer) and on hot plates (with a boundary layer). We found that hot plates overestimated the CTmax values of the different ants, and that this overestimate was larger for taller species. By statistically modelling the thickness of the thermal boundary layer, and combining with estimates of species height, we were able to correct this overestimation and eliminate methodological differences. Our study provides two main findings. First, we provide evidence that organism height is positively related to the bias present in plate-based estimates of CTmax. Second, we show that a relatively simple statistical model can correct for this bias. By using simple corrections for boundary layer effects, as we have done here, researchers could open up a new possibility space in the design and implementation of thermal tolerance assays using plates rather than restrictive dry or water baths.

Linking critical thermal maximum to mortality from thermal stress in a cold-water frog

Estimates of organismal thermal tolerance are frequently used to assess physiological risk from warming, yet the assumption that these estimates are predictive of mortality has been called into question. We tested this assumption in the cold-water-specialist frog, Ascaphus montanus. For seven populations, we used dynamic experimental assays to measure tadpole critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and measured mortality from chronic thermal stress for 3 days at different temperatures. We tested the relationship between previously estimated population CTmax and observed mortality, as well as the strength of CTmax as a predictor of mortality compared to local stream temperatures capturing varying timescales. Populations with higher CTmax experienced significantly less mortality in the warmest temperature treatment (25°C). We also found that population CTmax outperformed stream temperature metrics as the top predictor of observed mortality. These results demonstrate a clear link between CTmax and mortality from thermal stress, contributing evidence that CTmax is a relevant metric for physiological vulnerability assessments.

Heat-avoidance behavior associates with thermal sensitivity rather than tolerance in aphid assemblages

How to predict animals' heat-avoidance behaviors is critical since behavior stands the first line for animals dealing with frequent heat events under ongoing climate warming. However, the discrepancy between the scarcity of research on heat-avoidance behaviors and the commonness of eco-physiological data for thermal tolerance and for thermal sensitivity such as the temperature-dependent survival time makes it difficult to link physiological thermal traits to heat-avoidance behavior. Aphids usually suck plant sap on a fixed site on the host plants at moderate temperatures, but they will leave and seek cooler feeding sites under stressful temperatures. Here we take the cereal aphid assemblages comprising different species with various development stages as a model system. We tested the hypotheses that heat tolerance (critical thermal maximum, CT_max) or heat sensitivity (temperature-dependent declining rate of survival time, similarly hereinafter) would associate with the temperature at which aphid activate heat-avoidance behavior. Specifically, we hypothesized the aphids with less heat tolerance or greater heat sensitivity would take a lower heat risk by leaving the host plant earlier. By mimicking the linear increase in ambient temperature during the daytime, we measured the CT_max and the heat-avoidance temperature (HAT, at which aphids leave the host plant to find cooler places) to understand their heat tolerance and heat-avoidance behavior. Then, we tested the survival time of aphids at different temperatures and calculated the slope of survival time declining with temperature to assess their heat sensitivity (HS). Finally, we examined the relationships between CT_max and HAT and between HS and HAT to understand if the heat-avoidance behavior associates with heat tolerance or with heat sensitivity. The results showed that HS and HAT had a strong correlation, with more heat sensitive individuals displayed lower HAT. By contrast, CT_max and HAT had a weak correlation. Our results thus provide evidence that heat sensitivity is a more reliable indicator than thermal tolerance linking with the heat-avoidance behavior in the aphid assemblages. Most existing studies use the indexes related to thermal tolerance to predict warming impacts. Our findings highlight the urgency to incorporate thermal sensitivity when predicting animal responses to climate change.

Vulnerability to climate change increases with trophic level in terrestrial organisms

The resilience of ecosystem function under global climate change is governed by individual species vulnerabilities and the functional groups they contribute to (e.g. decomposition, primary production, pollination, primary, secondary and tertiary consumption). Yet it remains unclear whether species that contribute to different functional groups, which underpin ecosystem function, differ in their vulnerability to climate change. We used existing upper thermal limit data across a range of terrestrial species (N = 1701) to calculate species warming margins (degrees distance between a species upper thermal limit and the maximum environmental temperature they inhabit), as a metric of climate change vulnerability. We examined whether species that comprise different functional groups exhibit differential vulnerability to climate change, and if vulnerability trends change across geographic space while considering evolutionary history. Primary producers had the broadest warming margins across the globe (μ = 18.72 °C) and tertiary consumers had the narrowest warming margins (μ = 9.64 °C), where vulnerability tended to increase with trophic level. Warming margins had a nonlinear relationship (second-degree polynomial) with absolute latitude, where warming margins were narrowest at about 33°, and were broader at lower and higher absolute latitudes. Evolutionary history explained significant variation in species warming margins, as did the methodology used to estimate species upper thermal limits. We investigated if variation in body mass across the trophic levels could explain why higher trophic level organisms had narrower warming margins than lower trophic level organisms, however, we did not find support for this hypothesis. This study provides a critical first step in linking individual species vulnerabilities with whole ecosystem responses to climate change.

A novel expert-driven methodology to develop thermal response curves and project habitat thermal suitability for cetaceans under a changing climate

Over the last decades, global warming has contributed to changes in marine species composition, abundance and distribution, in response to changes in oceanographic conditions such as temperature, acidification, and deoxygenation. Experimentally derived thermal limits, which are known to be related to observed latitudinal ranges, have been used to assess variations in species distribution patterns. However, such experiments cannot be undertaken on free-swimming large marine predators with wide-range distribution, like cetaceans. An alternative approach is to elicit expert's knowledge to derive species' thermal suitability and assess their thermal responses, something that has never been tested in these taxa. We developed and applied a methodology based on expert-derived thermal suitability curves and projected future responses for several species under different climate scenarios. We tested this approach with ten cetacean species currently present in the biogeographic area of Macaronesia (North Atlantic) under Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, until 2050. Overall, increases in annual thermal suitability were found for Balaenoptera edeni, Globicephala macrorhynchus, Mesoplodon densirostris, Physeter macrocephalus, Stenella frontalis, Tursiops truncatus and Ziphius cavirostris. Conversely, our results indicated a decline in thermal suitability for B. physalus, Delphinus delphis, and Grampus griseus. Our study reveals potential responses in cetaceans' thermal suitability, and potentially in other highly mobile and large predators, and it tests this method's applicability, which is a novel application for this purpose and group of species. It aims to be a cost-efficient tool to support conservation managers and practitioners.

Heat tolerance variation reveals vulnerability of tropical herbivore-parasitoid interactions to climate change

Assessing the heat tolerance (CTmax) of organisms is central to understand the impact of climate change on biodiversity. While both environment and evolutionary history affect CTmax, it remains unclear how these factors and their interplay influence ecological interactions, communities and ecosystems under climate change. We collected and reared caterpillars and parasitoids from canopy and ground layers in different seasons in a tropical rainforest. We tested the CTmax and Thermal Safety Margins (TSM) of these food webs with implications for how species interactions could shift under climate change. We identified strong influence of phylogeny in herbivore-parasitoid community heat tolerance. The TSM of all insects were narrower in the canopy and parasitoids had lower heat tolerance compared to their hosts. Our CTmax-based simulation showed higher herbivore-parasitoid food web instability under climate change than previously assumed, highlighting the vulnerability of parasitoids and related herbivore control in tropical rainforests, particularly in the forest canopy.

Neotropical stingless bees display a strong response in cold tolerance with changes in elevation

Tropical pollinators are expected to experience substantial effects due to climate change, but aspects of their thermal biology remain largely unknown. We investigated the thermal tolerance of stingless honey-making bees, the most ecologically, economically and culturally important group of tropical pollinators. We assessed changes in the lower (CT_Min) and upper (CT_Max) critical thermal limits of 17 species (12 genera) at two elevations (200 and 1500 m) in the Colombian Andes. In addition, we examined the influence of body size (intertegular distance, ITD), hairiness (thoracic hair length) and coloration (lightness value) on bees' thermal tolerance. Because stingless beekeepers often relocate their colonies across the altitudinal gradient, as an initial attempt to explore potential social responses to climatic variability, we also tracked for several weeks brood temperature and humidity in nests of three species at both elevations. We found that CT_Min decreased with elevation while CT_Max was similar between elevations. CT_Min and CT_Max increased (low cold tolerance and high heat tolerance) with increasing ITD, hair length and lightness value, but these relationships were weak and explained at most 10% of the variance. Neither CT_Min nor CT_Max displayed significant phylogenetic signal. Brood nest temperature tracked ambient diel variations more closely in the low-elevation site, but it was constant and higher at the high-elevation site. In contrast, brood nest humidity was uniform throughout the day regardless of elevation. The stronger response in CT_Min, and a similar CT_Max between elevations, follows a pattern of variation documented across a wide range of taxa that is commonly known as the Brett's heat-invariant hypothesis. Our results indicate differential thermal sensitivities and potential thermal adaptations to local climate, which support ongoing conservation policies to restrict the long-distance relocations of colonies. They also shed light on how malleable nest thermoregulation can be across elevations.

Context-dependent integrated stress resistance promotes a global invasive pest

In nature, insects concurrently face multiple environmental stressors, a scenario likely increasing with climate change. Integrated stress resistance (ISR) thus often improves fitness and could drive invasiveness, but how physiological mechanisms influence invasion has lacked examination. Here, we investigated cross-tolerance to abiotic stress factors which may influence range limits in the South American tomato pinworm-a global invader that is an ecologically and socially damaging crop pest. Specifically, we tested the effects of prior rapid cold- and heat-hardening (RCH and RHH), fasting, and desiccation on cold and heat tolerance traits, as well as starvation and desiccation survivability between T. absoluta life stages. Acclimation effects on critical thermal minima (CT_min ) and maxima (CT_max ) were inconsistent, showing significantly deleterious effects of RCH on adult CT_max and CT_min and, conversely, beneficial acclimation effects of RCH on larval CT_min . While no beneficial effects of desiccation acclimation were recorded for desiccation tolerance, fasted individuals had significantly higher survival in adults, whereas fasting negatively affected larval tolerances. Furthermore, fasted and desiccation acclimated adults had significantly higher starvation tolerance, showing strong evidence for cross-tolerance. Our results show context-dependent ISR traits that may promote T. absoluta fitness and competitiveness. Given the frequent overlapping occurrence of these divergent stressors, ISR reported here may thus partly elucidate the observed rapid global spread of T. absoluta into more stressful environments than expected. This information is vital in determining the underpinnings of multistressor responses, which are fundamental in forecasting species responses to changing environments and management responses.

Body temperature and activity patterns modulate glucocorticoid levels across lizard species: A macrophysiological approach

Environmental and intrinsic factors interact to determine energy requirements in vertebrates. Glucocorticoid hormones (GCs) are key mediators of this interaction, as they fluctuate with energetic demands and regulate physiological and behavioral responses to environmental challenges. While a great body of research has focused on GC variation among individuals, the mechanisms driving GC variation across species and at broad spatial scales remain largely unexplored. Here, we adopted a macrophysiological approach to investigate the environmental factors and life-history traits driving variation in baseline GCs across lizard species. We tested three hypotheses: (1) If GCs increase with body temperature to meet higher metabolic demand, we expect an association between average baseline GCs and the mean species’ body temperature in the field (GC-temperature dependence hypothesis); (2) If GCs mediate behavioral responses to avoid thermal extremes, we expect that individuals frequently exposed to extreme conditions exhibit higher baseline GC levels (Behavioral thermoregulation hypothesis); (3) If GCs increase to support higher energy demands in active foragers during their period of activity, we expect that active foraging species have higher baseline GCs than sit-and-wait foragers, and that GC levels increase in relation to the duration of daily activity windows (Activity hypothesis). We used biophysical models to calculate operative temperatures and the activity patterns of lizards in sun-exposed and shaded microenvironments. Then, we tested the association between baseline GCs, body temperature, operative temperatures, foraging mode, and activity windows across 37 lizard species, using data from HormoneBase. Our comparative analyses showed that variation in baseline GCs was primarily related to the mean field body temperature and foraging mode, with higher baseline GCs in active foragers with higher body temperatures. Our results suggest that body temperature and foraging mode drive GC variation through their effects on energy requirements across lizard species.

There and back again: A meta-analytical approach on the influence of acclimation and altitude in the upper thermal tolerance of amphibians and reptiles

Realistic predictions about the impacts of climate change onbiodiversity requires gathering ecophysiological data and the critical thermal maxima (CTMax) is the most frequently used index to assess the thermal vulnerability of species. In the present study, we performed a systematic review to understand how acclimation and altitude affect CTMax estimates for amphibian and non-avian reptile species. We retrieved CTMax data for anurans, salamanders, lizards, snakes, and turtles/terrapins. Data allowed to perform a multilevel random effects meta-analysis to answer how acclimation temperature affect CTMax of Anura, Caudata, and Squamata and also meta-regressions to assess the influence of altitude on CTMax of frogs and lizards. Acclimation temperature influenced CTMax estimates of tadpoles, adult anurans, salamanders, and lizards, but not of froglets. In general, the increase in acclimation temperature led to higher CTMax values. Altitudinal bioclimatic gradient had an inverse effect for estimating the CTMax of lizards and anuran amphibians. For lizards, CTMax was positively influenced by the mean temperature of the wettest quarter. For anurans, the relationship is inverse; we recover a trend of decreasing CTMax when max temperature of warmest month and precipitation seasonality increase. There is an urgent need for studies to investigate the thermal tolerance of subsampled groups or even for which we do not have any information such as Gymnophiona, Serpentes, Amphisbaena, and Testudines. Broader phylogenetic coverage is mandatory for more accurate analyses of macroecological and evolutionary patterns for thermal tolerance indices as CTMax.

Are Signals of Local Environmental Adaptation Diluted by Laboratory Culture?

Insects have the ability to readily adapt to changes in environmental conditions, however the strength of local environmental adaptation signals under divergent conditions and the occurrence of trait inertia after relaxation of selection, remains poorly understood, especially for traits of climate stress resistance (CSR) and their phenotypic plasticity. The strength of environmental adaptation signals depend on several selection pressures present in the local environment, while trait inertia often occurs when there is a weakening or removal of a source of selection. Here, using Drosophila melanogaster, we asked whether signals of adaptation in CSR traits (critical thermal limits, heat and chill survival and, desiccation and starvation resistance) persist after exposure to laboratory culture for different durations (two vs. ten generations) across four climatically distinct populations. We show that culture duration has large effects on CSR traits and can both amplify or dilute signals of local adaptation. Effects were however dependent upon interactions between the source population, acclimation (adult acclimation at either 18 °C, 23 °C or 28 °C) conditions and the sex of the flies. Trait plasticity is markedly affected by the interaction between the source population, the specific acclimation conditions employed, and the duration in the laboratory. Therefore, a complex matrix of dynamic CSR trait responses is shown in space and time. Given these strong interaction effects, 'snapshot' estimates of environmental adaptation can result in misleading conclusions about the fitness consequences of climate variability.

The rising threat of climate change for arthropods from Earth's cold regions: Taxonomic rather than native status drives species sensitivity

Polar and alpine regions are changing rapidly with global climate change. Yet, the impacts on biodiversity, especially on the invertebrate ectotherms which are dominant in these areas, remain poorly understood. Short-term extreme temperature events, which are growing in frequency, are expected to have profound impacts on high-latitude ectotherms, with native species being less resilient than their alien counterparts. Here, we examined in the laboratory the effects of short periodic exposures to thermal extremes on survival responses of seven native and two non-native invertebrates from the sub-Antarctic Islands. We found that survival of dipterans was significantly reduced under warming exposures, on average having median lethal times (LT₅₀ ) of about 30 days in control conditions, which declined to about 20 days when exposed to daily short-term maxima of 24°C. Conversely, coleopterans were either not, or were less, affected by the climatic scenarios applied, with predicted LT₅₀ as high as 65 days under the warmest condition (daily exposures at 28°C for 2 h). The native spider Myro kerguelensis was characterized by an intermediate sensitivity when subjected to short-term daily heat maxima. Our results unexpectedly revealed a taxonomic influence, with physiological sensitivity to heat differing between higher level taxa, but not between native and non-native species representing the same higher taxon. The survival of a non-native carabid beetle under the experimentally imposed conditions was very high, but similar to that of native beetles, while native and non-native flies also exhibited very similar sensitivity to warming. As dipterans are a major element of diversity of sub-Antarctic, Arctic and other cold ecosystems, such observations suggest that the increased occurrence of extreme, short-term, thermal events could lead to large-scale restructuring of key terrestrial ecosystem components both in ecosystems protected from and those exposed to the additional impacts of biological invasions.

Finding the right thermal limit: a framework to reconcile ecological, physiological and methodological aspects of CTmax in ectotherms

Upper thermal limits (CTmax) are frequently used to parameterize the fundamental niche of ectothermic animals and to infer biogeographical distribution limits under current and future climate scenarios. However, there is considerable debate associated with the methodological, ecological and physiological definitions of CTmax. The recent (re)introduction of the thermal death time (TDT) model has reconciled some of these issues and now offers a solid mathematical foundation to model CTmax by considering both intensity and duration of thermal stress. Nevertheless, the physiological origin and boundaries of this temperature–duration model remain unexplored. Supported by empirical data, we here outline a reconciling framework that integrates the TDT model, which operates at stressful temperatures, with the classic thermal performance curve (TPC) that typically describes biological functions at permissive temperatures. Further, we discuss how the TDT model is founded on a balance between disruptive and regenerative biological processes that ultimately defines a critical boundary temperature (Tc) separating the TDT and TPC models. Collectively, this framework allows inclusion of both repair and accumulation of heat stress, and therefore also offers a consistent conceptual approach to understand the impact of high temperature under fluctuating thermal conditions. Further, this reconciling framework allows improved experimental designs to understand the physiological underpinnings and ecological consequences of ectotherm heat tolerance.

Understanding the biology of species' ranges: when and how does evolution change the rules of ecological engagement?

Understanding processes that limit species' ranges has been a core issue in ecology and evolutionary biology for many decades, and has become increasingly important given the need to predict the responses of biological communities to rapid environmental change. However, we still have a poor understanding of evolution at range limits and its capacity to change the ecological 'rules of engagement' that define these communities, as well as the time frame over which this occurs. Here we link papers in the current volume to some key concepts involved in the interactions between evolutionary and ecological processes at species' margins. In particular, we separate hypotheses about species' margins that focus on hard evolutionary limits, which determine how genotypes interact with their environment, from those concerned with soft evolutionary limits, which determine where and when local adaptation can persist in space and time. We show how theoretical models and empirical studies highlight conditions under which gene flow can expand local limits as well as contain them. In doing so, we emphasize the complex interplay between selection, demography and population structure throughout a species' geographical and ecological range that determines its persistence in biological communities. However, despite some impressively detailed studies on range limits, particularly in invertebrates and plants, few generalizations have emerged that can predict evolutionary responses at ecological margins. We outline some directions for future work such as considering the impact of structural genetic variants and metapopulation structure on limits, and the interaction between range limits and the evolution of mating systems and non-random dispersal. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Re-evaluating model assumptions suggests that Australian birds are more tolerant of heat and aridity than predicted: a response to Conradie et al. (2020)

Conradie et al. (2020) recently modelled the vulnerability of Australian arid birds to a changing climate. While the approach used by Conradie et al. (2020) is valuable, we argue that key assumptions in their study are poorly supported and the risks of a changing climate to arid zone avifauna are consequently overstated.

Sub-critical limits are viable alternatives to critical thermal limits

Thermal traits are frequently used to explain variation in species distributions, abundance, and sensitivity to climate change. Due to their utility and ease of measurement, critical thermal limits in particular have proliferated across the ecophysiological literature. Critical limit assays can, however, have deleterious or even lethal effects on individuals and there is growing recognition that intermediate metrics of performance can provide a further, nuanced understanding of how species interact with their environments. Meanwhile, the scarcity of data describing sub-critical or voluntary limits, which have been proposed as alternatives to critical limits and can be collected under less extreme conditions, reduces their value in comparative analyses and broad-scale syntheses. To overcome these limitations and determine if sub-critical limits are viable proxies for upper and lower critical thermal limits we measured and compared the critical and sub-critical thermal limits of 2023 ants representing 51 species. Sub-critical limits in isolation were a satisfactory linear predictor for both individual and species critical limits and when species identity was also considered there were substantial gains in variance explained. These gains indicate that a species-specific conversion factor can further improve estimates of critical traits using sub-critical proxies. Sub-critical limits can, therefore, be integrated into broader syntheses of critical limits and confidently used to calculate common ecological metrics, such as warming tolerance, so long as uncertainty in estimates is explicitly acknowledged. Although lower thermal traits exhibited more variation than their upper counterparts, the stronger phylogenetic signal of lower thermal traits indicates that appropriate conversions for lower thermal traits can be inferred from congenerics or other closely related taxa.