Merging theory and experiments to predict and understand coextinctions

Quantifying co-extinctions and ecosystem service vulnerability in coastal ecosystems experiencing climate warming

Climate change is negatively impacting ecosystems and their contributions to human well-being, known as ecosystem services. Previous research has mainly focused on the direct effects of climate change on species and ecosystem services, leaving a gap in understanding the indirect impacts resulting from changes in species interactions within complex ecosystems. This knowledge gap is significant because the loss of a species in a food web can lead to additional species losses or "co-extinctions," particularly when the species most impacted by climate change are also the species that play critical roles in food web persistence or provide ecosystem services. Here, we present a framework to investigate the relationships among species vulnerability to climate change, their roles within the food web, their contributions to ecosystem services, and the overall persistence of these systems and services in the face of climate-induced species losses. To do this, we assess the robustness of food webs and their associated ecosystem services to climate-driven species extinctions in eight empirical rocky intertidal food webs. Across food webs, we find that highly connected species are not the most vulnerable to climate change. However, we find species that directly provide ecosystem services are more vulnerable to climate change and more connected than species that do not directly provide services, which results in ecosystem service provision collapsing before food webs. Overall, we find that food webs are more robust to climate change than the ecosystem services they provide and show that combining species roles in food webs and services with their vulnerability to climate change offer predictions about the impacts of co-extinctions for future food web and ecosystem service persistence. However, these conclusions are limited by data availability and quality, underscoring the need for more comprehensive data collection on linking species roles in interaction networks and their vulnerabilities to climate change.

Vulnerability of terrestrial vertebrate food webs to anthropogenic threats in Europe

Vertebrate species worldwide are currently facing significant declines in many populations. Although we have gained substantial knowledge about the direct threats that affect individual species, these threats only represent a fraction of the broader vertebrate threat profile, which is also shaped by species interactions. For example, threats faced by prey species can jeopardize the survival of their predators due to food resource scarcity. Yet, indirect threats arising from species interactions have received limited investigation thus far. In this study, we investigate the indirect consequences of anthropogenic threats on biodiversity in the context of European vertebrate food webs. We integrated data on trophic interactions among over 800 terrestrial vertebrates, along with their associated human-induced threats. We quantified and mapped the vulnerability of various components of the food web, including species, interactions, and trophic groups to six major threats: pollution, agricultural intensification, climate change, direct exploitation, urbanization, and invasive alien species and diseases. Direct exploitation and agricultural intensification were two major threats for terrestrial vertebrate food webs: affecting 34% and 31% of species, respectively, they threaten 85% and 69% of interactions in Europe. By integrating network ecology with threat impact assessments, our study contributes to a better understanding of the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity.

To rewire or not to rewire: To what extent rewiring to surviving partners can avoid extinction?

Research Highlight: Leimberger, K.G., Hadley, A.S., & Betts, M.G. (2023). Plant-hummingbird pollination networks exhibit minimal rewiring after experimental removal of a locally abundant plant species. Journal of Animal Ecology, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13935. In this paper, Leimberger, Hadley and Betts (2023) explore the effects of removing a locally abundant plant species on plant-hummingbird pollination networks. They experimentally prevented access of hummingbirds to flowers of Heliconia tortuosa and assessed subsequent changes in the interactions between plants and hummingbirds. Their main hypothesis postulated that the loss of a highly connected species would lead to interaction rewiring and niche expansions by hummingbirds, decreasing individual, species and network specialization. However, they found that the overall structure of the plant-hummingbird networks remains mostly unaltered, with limited rewiring and minimal changes in specialization. The main contributions of this study can be summarized as (i) it adds to a limited number of manipulative studies on the capacity of species to rewire their interactions following the loss of partners, and importantly, it is the first study from the tropics and with vertebrate pollinators, for which experimental studies at appropriate scales is intrinsically more challenging; and (ii) innovates by evaluating change in specialization for the individual level, carried out through pollen sampling on the body of hummingbirds. The limited change in species interactions highlights that network stability through interaction rewiring may have been overestimated in previous studies, calling for further manipulative studies in the field. At the same time, it also indicated that even the loss of a highly abundant plant species has an overall small effect on network structure. Thus, this study contributes timely findings regarding the capacity of ecological communities to respond to species extinctions.

Facilitative interaction networks in experimental microbial community dynamics

Facilitative interactions between microbial species are ubiquitous in various types of ecosystems on the Earth. Therefore, inferring how entangled webs of interspecific interactions shift through time in microbial ecosystems is an essential step for understanding ecological processes driving microbiome dynamics. By compiling shotgun metagenomic sequencing data of an experimental microbial community, we examined how the architectural features of facilitative interaction networks could change through time. A metabolic modeling approach for estimating dependence between microbial genomes (species) allowed us to infer the network structure of potential facilitative interactions at 13 time points through the 110-day monitoring of experimental microbiomes. We then found that positive feedback loops, which were theoretically predicted to promote cascade breakdown of ecological communities, existed within the inferred networks of metabolic interactions prior to the drastic community-compositional shift observed in the microbiome time-series. We further applied "directed-graph" analyses to pinpoint potential keystone species located at the "upper stream" positions of such feedback loops. These analyses on facilitative interactions will help us understand key mechanisms causing catastrophic shifts in microbial community structure.

Mechanisms underlying interaction frequencies and robustness in a novel seed dispersal network: lessons for restoration

As human-caused extinctions and invasions accumulate across the planet, understanding the processes governing ecological functions mediated by species interactions, and anticipating the effect of species loss on such functions become increasingly urgent. In seed dispersal networks, the mechanisms that influence interaction frequencies may also influence the capacity of a species to switch to alternative partners (rewiring), influencing network robustness. Studying seed dispersal interactions in novel ecosystems on O'ahu island, Hawai'i, we test whether the same mechanisms defining interaction frequencies can regulate rewiring and increase network robustness to simulated species extinctions. We found that spatial and temporal overlaps were the primary mechanisms underlying interaction frequencies, and the loss of the more connected species affected networks to a greater extent. Further, rewiring increased network robustness, and morphological matching and spatial and temporal overlaps between partners were more influential on network robustness than species abundances. We argue that to achieve self-sustaining ecosystems, restoration initiatives can consider optimal morphological matching and spatial and temporal overlaps between consumers and resources to maximize chances of native plant dispersal. Specifically, restoration initiatives may benefit from replacing invasive species with native species possessing characteristics that promote frequent interactions and increase the probability of rewiring (such as long fruiting periods, small seeds and broad distributions).