Combining public participatory surveillance and occupancy modelling to predict the distributional response of Ixodes scapularis to climate change

Refining Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) distribution models: a comparison of current methods to an established protocol

Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say) pose an enormous public health risk in eastern North America as the vector responsible for transmitting 7 human pathogens, including those causing the most common vector-borne disease in the United States, Lyme disease. Species distribution modeling is an increasingly popular method for predicting the potential distribution and subsequent risk of blacklegged ticks, however, the development of such models thus far is highly variable and would benefit from the use of standardized protocols. To identify where standardized protocols would most benefit current distribution models, we completed the "Overview, Data, Model, Assessment, and Prediction" (ODMAP) distribution modeling protocol for 21 publications reporting 22 blacklegged tick distribution models. We calculated an average adherence of 73.4% (SD ± 29%). Most prominently, we found that authors could better justify and connect their selection of variables and associated spatial scales to blacklegged tick ecology. In addition, the authors could provide clearer descriptions of model development, including checks for multicollinearity, spatial autocorrelation, and plausibility. Finally, authors could improve their reporting of variable effects to avoid undermining the models' utility in informing species-environment relationships. To enhance future model rigor and reproducibility, we recommend utilizing several resources including the ODMAP protocol, and suggest that journals make protocol compliance a publication prerequisite.

Models and data used to predict the abundance and distribution of Ixodes scapularis (blacklegged tick) in North America: a scoping review

Tick-borne diseases (TBD) remain prevalent worldwide, and risk assessment of tick habitat suitability is crucial to prevent or reduce their burden. This scoping review provides a comprehensive survey of models and data used to predict I. scapularis distribution and abundance in North America. We identified 4661 relevant primary research articles published in English between January 1st, 2012, and July 18th, 2022, and selected 41 articles following full-text review. Models used data-driven and mechanistic modelling frameworks informed by diverse tick, hydroclimatic, and ecological variables. Predictions captured tick abundance (n = 14, 34.1%), distribution (n = 22, 53.6%) and both (n = 5, 12.1%). All studies used tick data, and many incorporated both hydroclimatic and ecological variables. Minimal host- and human-specific data were utilized. Biases related to data collection, protocols, and tick data quality affect completeness and representativeness of prediction models. Further research and collaboration are needed to improve prediction accuracy and develop effective strategies to reduce TBD.

Evaluation of the association between climate warming and the spread and proliferation of Ixodes scapularis in northern states in the Eastern United States

Ixodes scapularis (the blacklegged tick) is widely distributed in forested areas across the eastern United States. The public health impact of I. scapularis is greatest in the north, where nymphal stage ticks commonly bite humans and serve as primary vectors for multiple human pathogens. There were dramatic increases in the tick's distribution and abundance over the last half-century in the northern part of the eastern US, and climate warming is commonly mentioned as a primary driver for these changes. In this review, we summarize the evidence for the observed spread and proliferation of I. scapularis being driven by climate warming. Although laboratory and small-scale field studies have provided insights into how temperature and humidity impact survival and reproduction of I. scapularis, using these associations to predict broad-scale distribution and abundance patterns is more challenging. Numerous efforts have been undertaken to model the distribution and abundance of I. scapularis at state, regional, and global scales based on climate and landscape variables, but outcomes have been ambiguous. Across the models, the functional relationships between seasonal or annual measures of heat, cold, precipitation, or humidity and tick presence or abundance were inconsistent. The contribution of climate relative to landscape variables was poorly defined. Over the last half-century, climate warming occurred in parallel with spread and population increase of the white-tailed deer, the most important reproductive host for I. scapularis adults, in the northern part of the eastern US. There is strong evidence for white-tailed deer playing a key role to facilitate spread and proliferation of I. scapularis in the US over the last century. However, due to a lack of spatially and temporally congruent data, climate, landscape, and host variables are rarely included in the same models, thus limiting the ability to evaluate their relative contributions or interactions in defining the geographic range and abundance patterns of ticks. We conclude that the role of climate change as a key driver for geographic expansion and population increase of I. scapularis in the northern part of the eastern US over the last half-century remains uncertain.

Risky business: human-related data is lacking from Lyme disease risk models

Used as a communicative tool for risk management, risk maps provide a service to the public, conveying information that can raise risk awareness and encourage mitigation. Several studies have utilized risk maps to determine risks associated with the distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi, the causal agent of Lyme disease in North America and Europe, as this zoonotic disease can lead to severe symptoms. This literature review focused on the use of risk maps to model distributions of B. burgdorferi and its vector, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis), in North America to compare variables used to predict these spatial models. Data were compiled from the existing literature to determine which ecological, environmental, and anthropic (i.e., human focused) variables past research has considered influential to the risk level for Lyme disease. The frequency of these variables was examined and analyzed via a non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis to compare different map elements that may categorize the risk models performed. Environmental variables were found to be the most frequently used in risk spatial models, particularly temperature. It was found that there was a significantly dissimilar distribution of variables used within map elements across studies: Map Type, Map Distributions, and Map Scale. Within these map elements, few anthropic variables were considered, particularly in studies that modeled future risk, despite the objective of these models directly or indirectly focusing on public health intervention. Without including human-related factors considering these variables within risk map models, it is difficult to determine how reliable these risk maps truly are. Future researchers may be persuaded to improve disease risk models by taking this into consideration.

Establishment and range expansion of Dermacentor variabilis in the northern Maritimes of Canada: Community participatory science documents establishment of an invasive tick species

Tick populations are dependent on a complex interplay of abiotic and biotic influences, many of which are influenced by anthropic factors including climate change. Dermacentor variabilis, the wood tick or American dog tick, is a hardy tick species that feeds from a wide range of mammals and birds that can transmit pathogens of medical and agricultural importance. Significant range expansion across North America has been occurring over the past decades;this study documents northwards range expansion in the Canadian Maritime provinces. Tick recoveries from passive surveillance between 2012 and 2021 were examined to assess northward population expansion through Atlantic Canada. At the beginning of this period, D. variabilis was abundant in the most southerly province, Nova Scotia, but was not considered established in the province to the north, New Brunswick. During the 10-year span covered by this study, an increasing number of locally acquired ticks were recovered in discrete foci, suggesting small established or establishing populations in southern and coastal New Brunswick. The pattern of population establishment follows the climate-driven establishment pattern of Ixodes scapularis to some extent but there is also evidence of successful seeding of disjunct populations in areas identified as sub-optimal for tick populations. Dogs were the most common host from which these ticks were recovered, which raises the possibility of human activity, via movement of companion animals, having a significant role in establishing new populations of this species. Dermacentor variabilis is a vector of several pathogens of medical and agricultural importance but is not considered to be a competent vector for Borrelia burgdorferi, the etiological agent of Lyme disease; our molecular analysis of a subset of D. variabilis for both B. burgdorferi and B. miyamotoi did not confirm any with Borrelia. This study spans the initial establishment of this tick species and documents the pattern of introduction, providing a relatively unique opportunity to examine the first stages of range expansion of a tick species.

Assessing the spatial and temporal patterns and risk factors for acquisition of Ixodes spp. by companion animals across Canada

Climatic and land use changes have contributed to substantial changes in the abundance, distribution, and activity patterns of ticks in Canada, which have led to an increased risk of tick bites and tick-borne pathogen exposure for companion animals. The objectives of this study were to describe current spatial and temporal patterns of Ixodes spp. on companion animals in Canada and explore the association between tick bites and dog and cat demographic factors. Ticks were collected for one year (April 2019 - March 2020) from 94 veterinary clinics. Included with each submission was a short questionnaire containing owner-reported information on travel history, date of removal and suspected location of tick acquisition, and animal-specific demographic factors. Ticks were identified morphologically using a stereomicroscope, standard keys, and through PCR analyses. Mixed effect multivariable logistic regression models were built to explore the association between an Ixodes scapularis bite and animal demographic factors; veterinary clinic was included as a random effect. Approximately 2300 submissions were received from clinics across Canada, totalling 4425 ticks. The most common Ixodes spp. was I. scapularis (n = 2168), followed by Ixodes pacificus (n = 172) and Ixodes cookei (n = 155). Ixodes scapularis were well distributed in regions across central and eastern Canada. Ixodes cookei was found in eastern Canada, with the greatest numbers from Quebec and New Brunswick. Ixodes pacificus submissions were restricted to British Columbia. Across eastern Canada, dogs of the herding, mixed breed (large and small), sporting, working, terrier, and toy breed groups, and spayed cats were all found to have higher odds of acquiring I. scapularis, compared to other tick species. For the dog model, significant interactions were found between predictor variables age and sex. Regional information on tick distribution, seasonality, and risk factors for acquisition contribute to evidence-based veterinary practices for tick and tick-borne disease control in Canada.

Passive Surveillance of Human-Biting Ixodes scapularis Ticks in Massachusetts from 2015-2019

This study aimed to analyze human-biting Ixodes scapularis ticks submitted to TickReport tick testing service from 2015-2019 in Massachusetts to (1) examine possible patterns of pathogen-positive adult and nymphal ticks over time and (2) explore how socioeconomic factors can influence tick submissions. A passive surveillance data set of ticks and tick-borne pathogens was conducted over 5 years (2015-2019) in Massachusetts. The percentages of four tick-borne pathogens: Borrelia burgdorferi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Babesia microti, and Borrelia miyamotoi were determined by Massachusetts county and by month and year. Regression models were used to examine the association between zip-code-level socioeconomic factors and submissions. A total of 13,598 I. scapularis ticks were submitted to TickReport from Massachusetts residents. The infection rate of B. burgdorferi, A. phagocytophilum, and B. microti was 39%, 8%, and 7% in adult ticks; 23%, 6%, and 5% in nymphal ticks, respectively. A relatively higher level of education was associated with high tick submission. Passive surveillance of human-biting ticks and associated pathogens is important for monitoring tick-borne diseases, detecting areas with potentially high risks, and providing public information. Socioeconomic factors should be considered to produce more generalizable passive surveillance data and to target potentially underserved areas.

A Scoping Review of Species Distribution Modeling Methods for Tick Vectors

Background

Globally, tick-borne disease is a pervasive and worsening problem that impacts human and domestic animal health, livelihoods, and numerous economies. Species distribution models are useful tools to help address these issues, but many different modeling approaches and environmental data sources exist.

Objective

We conducted a scoping review that examined all available research employing species distribution models to predict occurrence and map tick species to understand the diversity of model strategies, environmental predictors, tick data sources, frequency of climate projects of tick ranges, and types of model validation methods.

Design

Following the PRISMA-ScR checklist, we searched scientific databases for eligible articles, their references, and explored related publications through a graphical tool (www.connectedpapers.com). Two independent reviewers performed article selection and characterization using a priori criteria.

Results

We describe data collected from 107 peer-reviewed articles that met our inclusion criteria. The literature reflects that tick species distributions have been modeled predominantly in North America and Europe and have mostly modeled the habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus (n = 23; 21.5%). A wide range of bioclimatic databases and other environmental correlates were utilized among models, but the WorldClim database and its bioclimatic variables 1–19 appeared in 60 (56%) papers. The most frequently chosen modeling approach was MaxEnt, which also appeared in 60 (56%) of papers. Despite the importance of ensemble modeling to reduce bias, only 23 papers (21.5%) employed more than one algorithm, and just six (5.6%) used an ensemble approach that incorporated at least five different modeling methods for comparison. Area under the curve/receiver operating characteristic was the most frequently reported model validation method, utilized in nearly all (98.9%) included studies. Only 21% of papers used future climate scenarios to predict tick range expansion or contraction. Regardless of the representative concentration pathway, six of seven genera were expected to both expand and retract depending on location, while Ornithodoros was predicted to only expand beyond its current range.

Conclusion

Species distribution modeling techniques are useful and widely employed tools for predicting tick habitat suitability and range movement. However, the vast array of methods, data sources, and validation strategies within the SDM literature support the need for standardized protocols for species distribution and ecological niche modeling for tick vectors.

Improving Widescale Monitoring of Ectoparasite Presence in Northern Canadian Wildlife with the Aid of Citizen Science

Simple Summary

Surveying ticks on wildlife hosts consistently over time and across space presents many challenges. In Yukon, Canada, the winter tick, Dermacentor albipictus, is a blood-feeding parasite that can cause significant losses of hair and blood in moose and other wildlife. The impacts of winter tick infestation in wildlife hosts in this northern region are not well documented. To enhance existing surveillance of winter ticks in Yukon, we implemented a three-year citizen science program, the Yukon Winter Tick Monitoring Project (YWTMP) to engage hunters in the collection of underrepresented moose and caribou samples. Social media, participation incentives, and hide-sampling kits distributed to hunters increased the combined number of annual moose and caribou hide submissions almost 100-fold, and the geographical range of samples by almost 500 km, compared with submission numbers in the previous seven years. Citizen science samples were also used to detect previously unknown infection localities on moose in southeastern Yukon that are spatially separate to known infestations found on elk and deer, helping to build a better picture of infection dynamics on different host animals. Engaging with key demographic groups using structured citizen science programs like the YWTMP can significantly expand sampling efforts in remote areas while maintaining systematic sampling methods to monitor parasites of wildlife health concern.

Abstract

Sampling hides from harvested animals is commonly used for passive monitoring of ectoparasites on wildlife hosts, but often relies heavily on community engagement to obtain spatially and temporally consistent samples. Surveillance of winter ticks (Dermacentor albipictus) on moose (Alces alces) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) hosts in Yukon, Canada, has relied in part on voluntary submission of hides by hunters since 2011, but few samples were submitted. To enhance sampling efforts on underrepresented moose and caribou hosts, we implemented a three-year citizen science program, the Yukon Winter Tick Monitoring Project (YWTMP), to better engage with hunters in hide sample collection. A combination of in-person and social media outreach, incentivized engagement, and standardized hide sampling kits increased voluntary submissions of moose and caribou hides almost 100-fold since surveillance began. Citizen science samples expanded the northernmost geographic extent of existing sampling efforts for moose by 480 km and for caribou by 650 km to reach 67.5° N latitude. Samples also resulted in new detections of winter ticks on moose hides that are spatially separate to those submitted for other cervids in Yukon. Findings from the YWTMP have provided an essential baseline to monitor future winter tick host–parasite dynamics in the region and highlighted priority areas for ongoing tick surveillance.

Borrelia burgdorferi and Borrelia miyamotoi in Atlantic Canadian wildlife

Borrelia burgdorferi and Borrelia miyamotoi are tick-vectored zoonotic pathogens maintained in wildlife species. Tick populations are establishing in new areas globally in response to climate change and other factors. New Brunswick is a Canadian maritime province at the advancing front of tick population establishment and has seen increasing numbers of ticks carrying B. burgdorferi, and more recently B. miyamotoi. Further, it is part of a region of Atlantic Canada with wildlife species composition differing from much of continental North America and little information exists as to the presence and frequency of infection of Borrelia spp. in wildlife in this region. We used a citizen science approach to collect a wide range of animals including migratory birds, medium-sized mammals, and small mammals. In total we tested 339 animals representing 20 species for the presence of B. burgdorferi and B. miyamotoi. We have developed new nested PCR primers and a protocol with excellent specificity for detecting both of these Borrelia species, both single and double infections, in tissues and organs of various wildlife species. The positive animals were primarily small non-migratory mammals, approximately twice as many were infected with B. burgdorferi than B. miyamotoi and one animal was found infected with both. In addition to established reservoir species, the jumping mouse (Napaeozapus insignis) was found frequently infected; this species had the highest infection prevalence for both B. burgdorferi and B. miyamotoi and has not previously been identified as an important carrier for either Borrelia species. Comprehensive testing of tissues found that all instances of B. burgdorferi infection were limited to one tissue within the host, whereas two of the five B. miyamotoi infections were diffuse and found in multiple systems. In the one coinfected specimen, two fetuses were also recovered and found infected with B. miyamotoi. This presumptive transplacental transmission suggests that vertical transmission in mammals is possible. This finding implies that B. miyamotoi could rapidly spread into wildlife populations, as well as having potential human health implications.

Monitoring Risk: Tick and Borrelia burgdorferi Public Participatory Surveillance in the Canadian Maritimes, 2012-2020

Ticks are vectors of many diseases, including Lyme disease (Ld). Lyme disease is an emerging disease in Canada caused by infection with the Lyme borreliosis (Lb) members of the Borrelia genus of spirochaete bacteria, of which Borrelia burgdorferi is regionally the most prevalent. The primary tick vector in central and eastern Canada, Ixodes scapularis, is increasing in numbers and in the geographical extent of established populations. This study documents the distribution of ticks recovered by passive surveillance, and their B. burgdorferi infection prevalence, in three Canadian Maritime provinces from 2012-2020. These regions represent areas in which tick populations are widely established, establishing, and considered non-established. Using a community science approach by partnering with veterinarians and members of the public, we collected over 7000 ticks from the 3 provinces. The three species found most often on companion animals and humans were I. scapularis (76.9%), Ixodes cookei (10.4%) and Dermacentor variabilis (8.9%). The most common hosts were dogs (60.5%), cats (16.8%) and humans (17.6%). As is typical of passive surveillance tick collections, the majority of ticks recovered were adult females; for I. scapularis 90.2%, 5.3%, 3.9% and 0.6% of the total of 5630 ticks recovered for this species were adult females, adult males, nymphs and larvae, respectively. The majority of B. burgdorferi-infected ticks were I. scapularis, as expected. Borrelia infection prevalence in I scapularis was higher in Nova Scotia (20.9%), the province with the most endemic regions, than New Brunswick (14.1%) and Prince Edward Island (9.1%), provinces thought to have established and non-established tick populations, respectively. The province-wide Borrelia infection prevalence generally increased in these latter tow provinces over the course of the study. The host did not have a significant effect on B. burgdorferi infection prevalence; I. scapularis ticks from dogs, cats, humans was, 13.3% (n = 3622), 15.6% (n = 817), 17.9% (n = 730), respectively. No I. scapularis larvae were found infected (n = 33) but B. burgdorferi was detected in 14.8% of both adults (n = 5140) and nymphs (n = 215). The incidence of B. burgdorferi infection also did not differ by engorgement status 15.0% (n = 367), 15.1% (n = 3101) and 14.4% (n = 1958) of non-engorged, engorged and highly engorged ticks, respectively, were infected. In New Brunswick, at the advancing front of tick population establishment, the province-wide infection percentages generally increased over the nine-year study period and all health district regions showed increased tick recoveries and a trend of increased percentages of Borrelia-infected ticks over the course of the study. Within New Brunswick, tick recoveries but not Borrelia infection prevalence were significantly different from endemic and non-endemic regions, suggesting cryptic endemic regions existed prior to their designation as a risk area. Over the 9 years of the study, tick recoveries increased in New Brunswick, the primary study region, and I. scapularis recoveries spread northwards and along the coast, most but not all new sites of recoveries were predicted by climate-based models, indicating that ongoing tick surveillance is necessary to accurately detect all areas of risk. Comparison of tick recoveries and public health risk areas indicates a lag in identification of risk areas. Accurate and timely information on tick distribution and the incidence of Borrelia and other infections are essential for keeping the public informed of risk and to support disease prevention behaviors.

Possible Effects of Climate Change on Ixodid Ticks and the Pathogens They Transmit: Predictions and Observations

The global climate has been changing over the last century due to greenhouse gas emissions and will continue to change over this century, accelerating without effective global efforts to reduce emissions. Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBDs) are inherently climate-sensitive due to the sensitivity of tick lifecycles to climate. Key direct climate and weather sensitivities include survival of individual ticks, and the duration of development and host-seeking activity of ticks. These sensitivities mean that in some regions a warming climate may increase tick survival, shorten life-cycles and lengthen the duration of tick activity seasons. Indirect effects of climate change on host communities may, with changes in tick abundance, facilitate enhanced transmission of tick-borne pathogens. High temperatures, and extreme weather events (heat, cold, and flooding) are anticipated with climate change, and these may reduce tick survival and pathogen transmission in some locations. Studies of the possible effects of climate change on TTBDs to date generally project poleward range expansion of geographical ranges (with possible contraction of ranges away from the increasingly hot tropics), upslope elevational range spread in mountainous regions, and increased abundance of ticks in many current endemic regions. However, relatively few studies, using long-term (multi-decade) observations, provide evidence of recent range changes of tick populations that could be attributed to recent climate change. Further integrated 'One Health' observational and modeling studies are needed to detect changes in TTBD occurrence, attribute them to climate change, and to develop predictive models of public- and animal-health needs to plan for TTBD emergence.

Models for Studying the Distribution of Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases in Animals: A Systematic Review and a Meta-Analysis with a Focus on Africa

Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBD) are constraints to the development of livestock and induce potential human health problems. The worldwide distribution of ticks is not homogenous. Some places are ecologically suitable for ticks but they are not introduced in these areas yet. The absence or low density of hosts is a factor affecting the dissemination of the parasite. To understand the process of introduction and spread of TTBD in different areas, and forecast their presence, scientists developed different models (e.g., predictive models and explicative models). This study aimed to identify models developed by researchers to analyze the TTBD distribution and to assess the performance of these various models with a meta-analysis. A literature search was implemented with PRISMA protocol in two online databases (Scopus and PubMed). The selected articles were classified according to country, type of models and the objective of the modeling. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy available data of these models were used to evaluate their performance using a meta-analysis. One hundred studies were identified in which seven tick genera were modeled, with Ixodes the most frequently modeled. Additionally, 13 genera of tick-borne pathogens were also modeled, with Borrelia the most frequently modeled. Twenty-three different models were identified and the most frequently used are the generalized linear model representing 26.67% and the maximum entropy model representing 24.17%. A focus on TTBD modeling in Africa showed that, respectively, genus Rhipicephalus and Theileria parva were the most modeled. A meta-analysis on the quality of 20 models revealed that maximum entropy, linear discriminant analysis, and the ecological niche factor analysis models had, respectively, the highest sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve effect size among all the selected models. Modeling TTBD is highly relevant for predicting their distribution and preventing their adverse effect on animal and human health and the economy. Related results of such analyses are useful to build prevention and/or control programs by veterinary and public health authorities.

Detection of Borrelia spp., Ehrlichia canis, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Dirofilaria immitis in Eastern Coyotes (Canis latrans) in Nova Scotia, Canada

Borrelia burgdorferi and Borrelia miyamotoi are tickborne zoonotic pathogens in Canada. Both bacteria are vectored by ticks, Ixodes scapularis in Atlantic Canada, but require wildlife reservoir species to maintain the bacteria for retransmission to future generations of ticks. Coyotes (Canis latrans) are opportunistic feeders, resulting in frequent contact with other animals and with ticks. Because coyotes are closely related to domestic dogs (Canis lupus familiaris), it is probable that coyote susceptibility to Borrelia infection is similar to that of dogs. We collected livers and kidneys of eastern coyotes from licensed harvesters in Nova Scotia, Canada, and tested them using nested PCR for the presence of B. burgdorferi, B. miyamotoi, and Dirofilaria immitis. Blood obtained from coyote livers was also tested serologically for antibodies to B. burgdorferi, Ehrlichia canis, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and D. immitis. Borrelia burgdorferi and D. immitis were detected by both nested PCR and serology tests. Seroreactivity to A. phagocytophilum was also found. Borrelia miyamotoi and E. canis were not detected. Our results show that coyotes in Nova Scotia have been exposed to a number of vectorborne pathogens.

Projecting the potential distribution of ticks in China under climate and land use change

Ticks are known as vectors of several pathogens causing various human and animal diseases including Lyme borreliosis, tick-borne encephalitis, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. While China is known to have more than 100 tick species well distributed over the country, our knowledge on the likely distribution of ticks in the future remains very limited, which hinders the prevention and control of the risk of tick-borne diseases. In this study, we selected four representative tick species which have different regional distribution foci in mainland China. i.e., Dermacentor marginatus, Dermacentor silvarum, Haemaphysalis longicornis and Ixodes granulatus. We used the MaxEnt model to identify the key environmental factors of tick occurrence and map their potential distributions in 2050 under four combined climate and socioeconomic scenarios (i.e., SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5). We found that the extent of the urban fabric, cropland and forest, temperature annual range and precipitation of the driest month were the main determinants of the potential distributions of the four tick species. Under the combined scenarios, with climate warming, the potential distributions of ticks shifted to further north in China. Due to a decrease in the extent of forest, the distribution probability of ticks declined in central and southern China. In contrast with previous findings on an estimated amplification of tick distribution probability under the extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5), our studies projected an overall reduction in the distribution probability under RCP8.5, owing to an expected effect of land use. Our results could provide new data to help identify the emerging risk areas, with amplifying suitability for tick occurrence, for the prevention and control of tick-borne zoonoses in mainland China. Future directions are suggested towards improved quantity and quality of the tick occurrence database, comprehensiveness of factors and integration of different modelling approaches, and capability to model pathogen spillover at the human-tick interface.

Public perceptions of Lyme disease and climate change in southern Manitoba, Canada: making a case for strategic decoupling of climate and health messages

BACKGROUND

Despite scientific evidence that climate change has profound and far reaching implications for public health, translating this knowledge in a manner that supports citizen engagement, applied decision-making, and behavioural change can be challenging. This is especially true for complex vector-borne zoonotic diseases such as Lyme disease, a tick-borne disease which is increasing in range and impact across Canada and internationally in large part due to climate change. This exploratory research aims to better understand public risk perceptions of climate change and Lyme disease in order to increase engagement and motivate behavioural change.

METHODS

A focus group study involving 61 participants was conducted in three communities in the Canadian Prairie province of Manitoba in 2019. Focus groups were segmented by urban, rural, and urban-rural geographies, and between participants with high and low levels of self-reported concern regarding climate change.

RESULTS

Findings indicate a broad range of knowledge and risk perceptions on both climate change and Lyme disease, which seem to reflect the controversy and complexity of both issues in the larger public discourse. Participants in high climate concern groups were found to have greater climate change knowledge, higher perception of risk, and less skepticism than those in low concern groups. Participants outside of the urban centre were found to have more familiarity with ticks, Lyme disease, and preventative behaviours, identifying differential sources of resilience and vulnerability. Risk perceptions of climate change and Lyme disease were found to vary independently rather than correlate, meaning that high climate change risk perception did not necessarily indicate high Lyme disease risk perception and vice versa.

CONCLUSIONS

This research contributes to the growing literature framing climate change as a public health issue, and suggests that in certain cases climate and health messages might be framed in a way that strategically decouples the issue when addressing climate skeptical audiences. A model showing the potential relationship between Lyme disease and climate change perceptions is proposed, and implications for engagement on climate change health impacts are discussed.

Evaluation of Natural and Botanical Medicines for Activity Against Growing and Non-growing Forms of B. burgdorferi

Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the US and Europe. Although the current recommended Lyme antibiotic treatment is effective for the majority of Lyme disease patients, about 10-20% of patients continue to suffer from persisting symptoms. There have been various anecdotal reports on the use of herbal extracts for treating patients with persisting symptoms with varying degree of improvements. However, it is unclear whether the effect of the herb products is due to their direct antimicrobial activity or their effect on host immune system. In the present study, we investigated the antimicrobial effects of 12 commonly used botanical medicines and three other natural antimicrobial agents for potential anti-Borrelia burgdorferi activity in vitro. Among them, 7 natural product extracts at 1% were found to have good activity against the stationary phase B. burgdorferi culture compared to the control antibiotics doxycycline and cefuroxime. These active botanicals include Cryptolepis sanguinolenta, Juglans nigra (Black walnut), Polygonum cuspidatum (Japanese knotweed), Artemisia annua (Sweet wormwood), Uncaria tomentosa (Cat's claw), Cistus incanus, and Scutellaria baicalensis (Chinese skullcap). In contrast, Stevia rebaudiana, Andrographis paniculata, Grapefruit seed extract, colloidal silver, monolaurin, and antimicrobial peptide LL37 had little or no activity against stationary phase B. burgdorferi. The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of Artemisia annua, Juglans nigra, and Uncaria tomentosa were quite high for growing B. burgdorferi, despite their strong activity against the non-growing stationary phase B. burgdorferi. On the other hand, the top two active herbs, Cryptolepis sanguinolenta and Polygonum cuspidatum, showed strong activity against both growing B. burgdorferi (MIC = 0.03-0.06% and 0.25-0.5%, respectively) and non-growing stationary phase B. burgdorferi. In subculture studies, only 1% Cryptolepis sanguinolenta extract caused complete eradication, while doxycycline and cefuroxime and other active herbs could not eradicate B. burgdorferi stationary phase cells as many spirochetes were visible after 21-day subculture. Further studies are needed to identify the active constituents of the effective botanicals and evaluate their combinations for more effective eradication of B. burgdorferi in vitro and in vivo. The implications of these findings for improving treatment of persistent Lyme disease are discussed.

Effect of Rising Temperature on Lyme Disease: Ixodes scapularis Population Dynamics and Borrelia burgdorferi Transmission and Prevalence

Warmer temperatures are expected to increase the incidence of Lyme disease through enhanced tick maturation rates and a longer season of transmission. In addition, there could be an increased risk of disease export because of infected mobile hosts, usually birds. A temperature-driven seasonal model of Borrelia burgdorferi (Lyme disease) transmission among four host types is constructed as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The model is developed and parametrized based on a collection of lab and field studies. The model is shown to produce biologically reasonable results for both the tick vector (Ixodes scapularis) and the hosts when compared to a different set of studies. The model is used to predict the response of Lyme disease risk to a mean annual temperature increase, based on current temperature cycles in Hanover, NH. Many of the risk measures suggested by the literature are shown to change with increased mean annual temperature. The most straightforward measure of disease risk is the abundance of infected questing ticks, averaged over a year. Compared to this measure, which is difficult and resource-intensive to track in the field, all other risk measures considered underestimate the rise of risk with rise in mean annual temperature. The measure coming closest was “degree days above zero.” Disease prevalence in ticks and hosts showed less increase with rising temperature. Single field measurements at the height of transmission season did not show much change at all with rising temperature.

Parenting When Children Have Lyme Disease: Fear, Frustration, Advocacy

Increasing numbers of Canadians, including children and adolescents, are being infected with Borrelia burgdorferi and contracting Lyme disease. In the present study, we provided a qualitative analysis of written correspondence produced by 23 parents of children and adolescents with Lyme disease. The goal of this study was to investigate how medical and psychological issues were highlighted by parents describing their family’s Lyme disease experiences. The results suggest a series of four stages in these families where satisfactory treatment had not been obtained over months or years. The experiences of parents evolved from feelings of worry for the child to frustration with the lack of a helpful treatment, to mistrust of physicians’ actions, and, in some case, to a rejection of the conventional health care system as a whole. Improved diagnostic testing and treatment guidelines, as well as family-centered practices of medical care were proposed as important features for improving the experiences of families living with Lyme disease.

A Multiple Streams Approach to Understanding the Issues and Challenges of Lyme Disease Management in Canada's Maritime Provinces

This study examines potential challenges facing Lyme disease patients in Canada’s Maritime provinces—New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island—and considers how issues could be addressed. Reviews of both the academic and grey literature are complemented by surveys targeting both medical professionals and decision makers in government. Combined, the literature reviews and surveys demonstrate that there is considerable debate surrounding the effectiveness of testing, treatment options, and the existence of chronic Lyme disease. As the focus on the Maritimes demonstrates, these debates often pit the medical community against patients and patient advocates and, thus far, governments have been unable to produce policy that entirely pleases either side. Moving forward, this study recommends the creation of a discussion forum via a federal Commission of inquiry to review best practise guidelines for Lyme disease. The key is to foster an unbiased probe of central issues surrounding treatment and diagnosis without alienating stakeholders. This course of action will not necessarily solve the issue of Lyme disease, but would foster a greater understanding through dialogue that includes and validates the experiences of stakeholders, which is something that is currently missing.

Under-Detection of Lyme Disease in Canada

Lyme disease arises from infection with pathogenic Borrelia species. In Canada, current case definition for confirmed Lyme disease requires serological confirmation by both a positive first tier ELISA and confirmatory second tier immunoblot (western blot). For surveillance and research initiatives, this requirement is intentionally conservative to exclude false positive results. Consequently, this approach is prone to false negative results that lead to underestimation of the number of people with Lyme disease. The province of New Brunswick (NB), Canada, can be used to quantify under-detection of the disease as three independent data sets are available to generate an estimate of the true human disease prevalence and incidence. First, detailed human disease incidence is available for the US states and counties bordering Canada, which can be compared with Canadian disease incidence. Second, published national serology results and well-described sensitivity and specificity values for these tests are available and deductive reasoning can be used to query for discrepancies. Third, high-density tick and canine surveillance data are available for the province, which can be used to predict expected human Lyme prevalence. Comparison of cross-border disease incidence suggests a minimum of 10.2 to 28-fold under-detection of Lyme disease (3.6% to 9.8% cases detected). Analysis of serological testing predicts the surveillance criteria generate 10.4-fold under-diagnosis (9.6% cases detected) in New Brunswick for 2014 due to serology alone. Calculation of expected human Lyme disease cases based on tick and canine infections in New Brunswick indicates a minimum of 12.1 to 58.2-fold underestimation (1.7% to 8.3% cases detected). All of these considerations apply generally across the country and strongly suggest that public health information is significantly under-detecting and under-reporting human Lyme cases across Canada. Causes of the discrepancies between reported cases and predicted actual cases may include undetected genetic diversity of Borrelia in Canada leading to failed serological detection of infection, failure to consider and initiate serological testing of patients, and failure to report clinically diagnosed acute cases. As these surveillance criteria are used to inform clinical and public health decisions, this under-detection will impact diagnosis and treatment of Canadian Lyme disease patients.

Progress, challenges, and the role of public engagement to improve tick-borne disease literacy

Vector-borne diseases have increased worldwide, facilitated by globalization and variations in climate. Tick and tick-borne disease researchers, veterinarians, medical practitioners, and public health specialists are working to share their expertise on tick ecology, disease transmission, diagnostics, and treatment in order to control tick-borne epidemics and potential pandemics. This review will be a brief overview of the current status of tick-borne diseases, challenges on the scientific and public fronts, and the role of public engagement in improving citizen education within the context of ticks and tick-borne disease research.