External validation of a nomogram predicting the probability of prostate cancer Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy pathology among Japanese patients

Concordance between Gleason score of prostate biopsies and radical prostatectomy specimens and its predictive factors

Objective:

The Gleason score is an essential factor for making decisions about prostate cancer management and its prognosis. Thus, we conducted this research to discover the histologic-grading accuracy of needle biopsy specimens, and to identify preoperative clinical and pathological factors that predict upgrading and downgrading from biopsy to radical prostatectomy specimen.

Patients and methods:

This study was performed on 570 patients who were referred to the medical centers affiliated with Shiraz University of Medical Sciences and underwent radical prostatectomy from 2013 to 2017. Concordance was evaluated between the Gleason score of needle biopsy and radical prostatectomy specimens. Predictors of upgrades and downgrades were assessed in univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

Results:

Scores were the same in 50% of cases, downgraded in 26%, and upgraded in 24%. The variables predicting a Gleason score upgrade were higher Prostate specific antigen level, larger tumors, and older age. Lower tumor volume, lower Prostate specific antigen, and low maximum percentage of cancer in cores were predictors of downgrading from Gleason score>6 to ⩽6. Also, Body mass index>30, smaller tumor size, and negative lymph nodes were predictors of downgrading from Gleason score>7 to 7.

Conclusion:

The correlation between biopsy and Radical prostatectomy Gleason scores was only 50%. After dividing them into the new grading groups, this coordination increased by only 5.6%. Physicians need to consider possible limitations of the Gleason score of biopsy and factors that can be predictive of upgrading to high-risk prostate cancer before making treatment decisions.

Prostate Cancer Gleason Score From Biopsy to Radical Surgery: Can Ultrasound Shear Wave Elastography and Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging Narrow the Gap?

Objectives

To investigate the impact of ultrasound shear wave elastography (USWE) and multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) in predicting a change in biopsy-assigned Gleason Score (GS) after radical surgery for localised prostate cancer (PCa).

Method

A total of 212 men opting for laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (LRP) between September 2013 and June 2017 were recruited into this study. All the participants had 12-core transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) biopsies and imaging using USWE and mpMRI before radical surgery. The predictive accuracy for imaging modalities was assessed in relation to upgrading and downgrading of PCa GS between the biopsies and radical prostatectomy using Student's t-test and multivariable logistic regression analyses. A decision analysis curve was constructed assessing the impact of nomogram on clinical situations using different thresholds of upgrading probabilities.

Results

Most GS 6 diseases on biopsies were upgraded on radical surgery (37/42, 88.1%). Major downgrading was seen in GS 8 category of disease (14/35; 37.1%), whereas no alteration was observed in GS 7 on biopsies in most men (55/75; 73.3%). In univariate analysis, higher preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) (p = 0.001), higher prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD) (p = 0.002), stiffer USWE lesions (p = 0.009), and higher prostate imaging-reporting and data system (PIRADS) (p = 0.002) on mpMRI were significant predictors of upgrading. In multivariate logistic regression analyses, only PSA (p = 0.016) and USWE-measured tissue stiffness (p = 0.029) showed statistical significance in predicting upgrading.

Conclusions

Measurement of tissue stiffness using USWE in clinically localised PCa can predict upgrading of GS and has the potential to improve patient management options.

Association between prostate cancer characteristics and BRCA1/2-associated family cancer history in a Japanese cohort

In addition to breast, ovarian, and pancreatic cancers, BRCA1/2 genes have been associated with prostate cancer (PC). However, the role of BRCA1/2-associated family cancer history (FCH) has remained unexplored in treating these four cancer types as a homogenous pathophysiological group. We aimed to clarify the relationship between BRCA1/2-associated FCH and PC, and to assess its relationship with cancer aggressiveness. Patient characteristics, positive family history of BRCA1/2-associated cancer, and cancer characteristics (Gleason score, prostate specific antigen level at diagnosis, and clinical tumor stage) were analyzed. Among the 1,985 eligible candidates, 473 (23.83%) patients had adequately detailed FCH, obtained via questionnaire, and were thus included in the study. BRCA1/2-associated FCH was observed in 135 (28.54%) patients with PC (68, 14.38%), breast (44, 9.30%), pancreatic (31, 6.55%), or ovarian (8, 1.69%) cancers. BRCA1/2-associated FCH was not significantly associated with high Gleason score (≥ 8). Patients with BRCA-associated FCH were less likely to present with high clinical tumor stage, and no difference was observed in prostate-specific antigen level, presence of metastatic lesions at diagnosis, or likelihood of high-risk classification between patients with and without BRCA-associated FCH. This is the first report of BRCA1/2-associated FCH in Japanese men, indicating that family history did not affect the severity or aggressiveness of PC.

COVID-19 and androgen-targeted therapy for prostate cancer patients

The current pandemic (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a global health challenge with active development of antiviral drugs and vaccines seeking to reduce its significant disease burden. Early reports have confirmed that transmembrane serine protease 2 (TMPRSS2) and angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) are critical targets of SARS-CoV-2 that facilitate viral entry into host cells. TMPRSS2 and ACE2 are expressed in multiple human tissues beyond the lung including the testes where predisposition to SARS-CoV-2 infection may exist. TMPRSS2 is an androgen-responsive gene and its fusion represents one of the most frequent alterations in prostate cancer. Androgen suppression by androgen deprivation therapy and androgen receptor signaling inhibitors form the foundation of prostate cancer treatment. In this review, we highlight the growing evidence in support of androgen regulation of TMPRSS2 and ACE2 and the potential clinical implications of using androgen suppression to downregulate TMPRSS2 to target SARS-CoV-2. We also discuss the future directions and controversies that need to be addressed in order to establish the viability of targeting TMPRSS2 and/or ACE2 through androgen signaling regulation for COVID-19 treatment, particularly its relevance in the context of prostate cancer management.

Radiomics Based on MRI as a Biomarker to Guide Therapy by Predicting Upgrading of Prostate Cancer From Biopsy to Radical Prostatectomy

BACKGROUND

Biopsy Gleason score (GS) is crucial for prostate cancer (PCa) treatment decision-making. Upgrading in GS from biopsy to radical prostatectomy (RP) puts a proportion of patients at risk of undertreatment.

PURPOSE

To develop and validate a radiomics model based on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mp-MRI) to predict PCa upgrading.

STUDY TYPE

Retrospective, radiomics.

POPULATION

A total of 166 RP-confirmed PCa patients (training cohort, n = 116; validation cohort, n = 50) were included.

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE

3.0T/T₂ -weighted (T₂ W), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), and dynamic contrast enhancement (DCE) sequences.

ASSESSMENT

PI-RADSv2 score for each tumor was recorded. Radiomic features were extracted from T₂ W, ADC, and DCE sequences and Mutual Information Maximization criterion was used to identify the optimal features on each sequence. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop predictive models and a radiomics nomogram and their performance was evaluated.

STATISTICAL TESTS

Student's t or chi-square were used to assess the differences in clinicopathologic data between the training and validation cohorts. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated.

RESULTS

In PI-RADSv2 assessment, 67 lesions scored 5, 70 lesions scored 4, and 29 lesions scored 3. For each sequence, 4404 features were extracted and the top 20 best features were selected. The radiomics model incorporating signatures from the three sequences achieved better performance than any single sequence (AUC: radiomics model 0.868, T₂ W 0.700, ADC 0.759, DCE 0.726). The combined mode incorporating radiomics signature, clinical stage, and time from biopsy to RP outperformed the clinical model and radiomics model (AUC: combined model 0.910, clinical model 0.646, radiomics model 0.868). The nomogram showed good performance (AUC 0.910) and calibration (P-values: training cohort 0.624, validation cohort 0.294).

DATA CONCLUSION

Radiomics based on mp-MRI has potential to predict upgrading of PCa from biopsy to RP.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 5 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2020;52:1239-1248.

Nomograms for predicting Gleason upgrading in a contemporary Chinese cohort receiving radical prostatectomy after extended prostate biopsy: development and internal validation

The current strategy for the histological assessment of prostate cancer (PCa) is mainly based on the Gleason score (GS). However, 30-40% of patients who undergo radical prostatectomy (RP) are misclassified at biopsy pathologically. Thus, we developed and validated nomograms for the prediction of Gleason score upgrading (GSU) in patients who underwent radical prostatectomy after extended prostate biopsy in a Chinese population. This retrospective study included a total of 411 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy at our institute after having prostate biopsies between 2011 and 2015. The final pathologic GS was upgraded in 151 (36.74%) of the cases in all patients and 92 (60.13%) cases in men with GS=6. In multivariate analyses, the primary biopsy GS, secondary biopsy GS and obesity were predictive of GSU in the patient cohort assessed. In patients with GS=6, the significant predictors of GSU included the body mass index (BMI), prostate-specific antigen density(PSAD) and percentage of positive cores. The area under the curve (AUC) of the prediction models was 0.753 for the entire patient population and 0.727 for the patients with GS=6. Both nomograms were well calibrated, and decision curve analysis demonstrated a high net benefit across a wide range of threshold probabilities. This study may be relevant for improved risk assessment and clinical decision-making in PCa patients.

Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy in Chinese population: Updated nomograms

INTRODUCTION

To assess the risk factors of Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy (RP) and update the nomogram for the prediction of Gleason sum upgrading.

METHODS

The study cohort consisted of 237 Chinese prostate adenocarcinoma patients who underwent 10-core prostate biopsy and subsequently received RP in Huashan Hospital from February 2011 to May 2015. The main outcome of our study was Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and RP pathology. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to explore the potential predictors, and ultimately to build the nomograms. The prediction model was further evaluated for its ability to predict significant upgrading in patients with biopsy Gleason sum<8.

RESULTS

In the main cohort of all the patients, Gleason sum upgrading was observed in 62 (26.16%) patients. The pre-operative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, biopsy Gleason sum, and digital rectal examination were used in building the nomogram, which was validated internally with a bootstrap-corrected concordance index of 0.787. In the sub-cohort of 115 patients with standardized biopsy details, Gleason sum upgrading was observed in 31 (26.96%) patients. The pre-operative PSA level, biopsy Gleason sum, and number of positive cores were used in the nomogram, which was also validated internally with a bootstrap-corrected concordance index of 0.833. These two nomograms both demonstrated satisfactory statistical performance for predicting significant upgrading.

CONCLUSIONS

Updated nomograms to predict Gleason sum upgrading in Chinese population between biopsy and RP were developed, demonstrating good statistical performance upon internal validation.

External validation and comparison of two nomograms predicting the probability of Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy pathology in two patient populations: a retrospective cohort study

The aim of this study is to validate and compare the predictive accuracy of two nomograms predicting the probability of Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy pathology among representative patients with prostate cancer. We previously developed a nomogram, as did Chun et al. In this validation study, patients originated from two centers: Toho University Sakura Medical Center (n = 214) and Chibaken Saiseikai Narashino Hospital (n = 216). We assessed predictive accuracy using area under the curve values and constructed calibration plots to grasp the tendency for each institution. Both nomograms showed a high predictive accuracy in each institution, although the constructed calibration plots of the two nomograms underestimated the actual probability in Toho University Sakura Medical Center. Clinicians need to use calibration plots for each institution to correctly understand the tendency of each nomogram for their patients, even if each nomogram has a good predictive accuracy.

Prostate biopsy concordance in a large population-based sample: a Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results study

AIMS

To use the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database in order to evaluate prostate biopsy concordance in a large population-based sample.

METHODS

We identified 34 195 men who were diagnosed with prostate cancer and underwent a radical prostatectomy from 2010 to 2011. All patients also had to have both clinical and pathological Gleason scores available for analysis. The concordance of the biopsy Gleason score to the pathological Gleason score was analysed using the coefficient of agreement (κ). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine potential factors that may impact concordance of Gleason score.

RESULTS

Overall, the clinical and pathological Gleason scores matched in 55.4% of patients. The concordance rates were 55.3% for Gleason 6, 66.9% for Gleason 3+4, 42.9% for Gleason 4+3 and 24.8% for Gleason 8, with frequent downgrading to Gleason 7. The κ for Gleason score concordance was 0.36 (95% CI 0.35 to 0.37), indicating fair agreement. The weighted κ for Gleason score concordance was 0.51 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.52), indicating moderate agreement. Additionally, the Bowker tests of symmetry were highly significant (p<0.001), indicating that when discordant findings were present, pathological upgrading was more common than downgrading.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is, to our knowledge, the largest contemporary study of prostate biopsy concordance. We found that there continues to be significant Gleason migration both upward from biopsy Gleason 6 or 3+4 and downgrading from biopsy Gleason ≥8. Further studies are needed to better determine other potential genomic or biologic factors that may help increase the biopsy Gleason concordance.

Biopsy characteristics in men with a preoperative diagnosis of prostatic adenocarcinoma with high Gleason score (8-10) predict pathologic outcome in radical prostatectomy

Even if limited to one biopsy core, most urologists and radiation oncologists use the highest Gleason score (GS) to guide therapy. To evaluate the suitability of using biopsy characteristics to predict tumor characteristics at radical prostatectomy (RP) in men with high biopsy GS (BGS) cancer to better select men who will most benefit from various local therapies, we retrospectively reviewed the biopsy and RP findings of 144 men with a BGS 8-10. One hundred six and 38 patients with a BGS of 8 and 9-10, respectively, were included. Forty-eight percent of cases were downgraded to a final GS of 7 at RP, including 54% of BGS 8, and 32% of BGS 9-10 group. Overall, 31% had pT2 disease at RP. Multiple biopsy features, including the GS, the number of positive cores, the number of cores with high-GS cancer, and the maximum volume of high-grade cancer per core (MVPC) consistently predicted final GS and RP tumor stage. Multivariate analysis showed that biopsy GS and MVPC were independent predictors of final GS, while MVPC was also an independent predictor for final pT stage. Patients with high BGS are not a homogeneous group in terms of local tumor characteristics. In addition to BGS (9-10 being worse than 8), other biopsy findings, especially the number of involved cores, number of cores with high-BGS cancer, and MVPC are important predictors of findings at RP that should be incorporated in the decision treatment planning. Most patients with only one core BGS 8 cancer harbor GS 7 cancer.

Surgical management of prostate cancer

Surgery remains a mainstay in the management of localized prostate cancer. This article addresses surgical aspects germane to the management of men with prostate cancer, including patient selection for surgery, nerve-sparing approaches, minimization of positive surgical margins, and indications for pelvic lymph node dissection. Outcomes for men with high-risk prostate cancer following surgery are reviewed, and the present role of neoadjuvant therapy before radical prostatectomy is discussed. In addition, there is a review of the published literature on surgical ablative therapies for prostate cancer.

A nomogram to predict Gleason sum upgrading of clinically diagnosed localized prostate cancer among Chinese patients

Although several models have been developed to predict the probability of Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy specimens, most of these models are restricted to prostate-specific antigen screening-detected prostate cancer. This study aimed to build a nomogram for the prediction of Gleason sum upgrading in clinically diagnosed prostate cancer. The study cohort comprised 269 Chinese prostate cancer patients who underwent prostate biopsy with a minimum of 10 cores and were subsequently treated with radical prostatectomy. Of all included patients, 220 (81.8%) were referred with clinical symptoms. The prostate-specific antigen level, primary and secondary biopsy Gleason scores, and clinical T category were used in a multivariate logistic regression model to predict the probability of Gleason sum upgrading. The developed nomogram was validated internally. Gleason sum upgrading was observed in 90 (33.5%) patients. Our nomogram showed a bootstrap-corrected concordance index of 0.789 and good calibration using 4 readily available variables. The nomogram also demonstrated satisfactory statistical performance for predicting significant upgrading. External validation of the nomogram published by Chun et al. in our cohort showed a marked discordance between the observed and predicted probabilities of Gleason sum upgrading. In summary, a new nomogram to predict Gleason sum upgrading in clinically diagnosed prostate cancer was developed, and it demonstrated good statistical performance upon internal validation.

Development and multi-institutional validation of an upgrading risk tool for Gleason 6 prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Many patients with low-risk prostate cancer (PC) who are diagnosed with Gleason score 6 at biopsy are ultimately found to harbor higher grade PC (Gleason ≥ 7) at radical prostatectomy. This finding increases risk of recurrence and cancer-specific mortality. Validated clinical tools that are available preoperatively are needed to improve the ability to recognize likelihood of upgrading in patients with low-risk PC.

METHODS

More than 30 clinicopathologic parameters were assessed in consecutive patients with Gleason 6 PC upon biopsy who underwent radical prostatectomy. A nomogram for predicting upgrading (Gleason ≥ 7) on final pathology was generated using multivariable logistic regression in a development cohort of 431 patients. External validation was performed in 2 separate cohorts consisting of 1151 patients and 392 patients. Nomogram performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration, and decision analysis.

RESULTS

On multivariable analysis, variables predicting upgrading were prostate-specific antigen density using ultrasound (odds ratio [OR] = 229, P = .003), obesity (OR = 1.90, P = .05), number of positive cores (OR = 1.23, P = .01), and maximum core involvement (OR = 0.02, P = .01). On internal validation, the bootstrap-corrected predictive accuracy was 0.753. External validation revealed a predictive accuracy of 0.677 and 0.672. The nomogram demonstrated excellent calibration in all 3 cohorts and decision curves demonstrated high net benefit across a wide range of threshold probabilities. The nomogram demonstrated areas under the curve of 0.597 to 0.672 for predicting upgrading in subsets of men with very low-risk PC who meet active surveillance criteria (all P < .001), allowing further risk stratification of these individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

A nomogram was developed and externally validated that uses preoperative clinical parameters and biopsy findings to predict the risk of pathological upgrading in Gleason 6 patients. This can be used to further inform patients with lower risk PC who are considering treatment or active surveillance.

Development of a nomogram for predicting the stone-free rate after transurethral ureterolithotripsy using semi-rigid ureteroscope

OBJECTIVES

To develop and to internally validate a novel nomogram for predicting the stone-free rate after transurethral ureterolithotripsy.

METHODS

A total of 412 patients with 534 ureteral stones were treated with transurethral ureterolithotripsy using semi-rigid ureteroscopes. Treatment efficacy was evaluated 3 months after the procedure. Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of being stone-free in the model-building set. A total of 427 stones (80% of 534) were randomly allocated for identification and statistical analysis to build the model, and the remaining 107 (20%) were used for cross-validation. A nomogram for the stone-free rate was developed based on the final logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Stone length, number of stones, stone location and the presence of pyuria were independent factors related to the stone-free rate after transurethral ureterolithotripsy treatment, and these were used to develop a nomogram. In this nomogram, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.7432 for the nomogram, 0.5641 for stone size, 0.5908 for the number of stones, 0.6594 for stone location and 0.6076 for pyuria. Validation using 20% of the data also achieved a reasonable predictive accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.682).

CONCLUSIONS

The first nomogram for predicting the stone-free rate after transurethral ureterolithotripsy was developed. It has a reasonable predictive accuracy, and in combination with extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy nomograms, it might be useful for deciding treatment methods.

Upgrading and downgrading of prostate cancer from biopsy to radical prostatectomy: incidence and predictive factors using the modified Gleason grading system and factoring in tertiary grades

BACKGROUND

Prior studies assessing the correlation of Gleason score (GS) at needle biopsy and corresponding radical prostatectomy (RP) predated the use of the modified Gleason scoring system and did not factor in tertiary grade patterns.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relation of biopsy and RP grade in the largest study to date.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A total of 7643 totally embedded RP and corresponding needle biopsies (2004-2010) were analyzed according to the updated Gleason system.

INTERVENTIONS

All patients underwent prostate biopsy prior to RP.

MEASUREMENTS

The relation of upgrading or downgrading to patient and cancer characteristics was compared using the chi-square test, Student t test, and multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

A total of 36.3% of cases were upgraded from a needle biopsy GS 5-6 to a higher grade at RP (11.2% with GS 6 plus tertiary). Half of the cases had matching GS 3+4=7 at biopsy and RP with an approximately equal number of cases downgraded and upgraded at RP. With biopsy GS 4+3=7, RP GS was almost equally 3+4=7 and 4+3=7. Biopsy GS 8 led to an almost equal distribution between RP GS 4+3=7, 8, and 9-10. A total of 58% of the cases had matching GS 9-10 at biopsy and RP. In multivariable analysis, increasing age (p<0.0001), increasing serum prostate-specific antigen level (p<0.0001), decreasing RP weight (p<0.0001), and increasing maximum percentage cancer/core (p<0.0001) predicted the upgrade from biopsy GS 5-6 to higher at RP. Despite factoring in multiple variables including the number of positive cores and the maximum percentage of cancer per core, the concordance indexes were not sufficiently high to justify the use of nomograms for predicting upgrading and downgrading for the individual patient.

CONCLUSIONS

Almost 20% of RP cases have tertiary patterns. A needle biopsy can sample a tertiary higher Gleason pattern in the RP, which is then not recorded in the standard GS reporting, resulting in an apparent overgrading on the needle biopsy.

Development and External Validation of a Nomogram Predicting the Probability of Significant Gleason Sum Upgrading among Japanese Patients with Localized Prostate Cancer

Objective. The aim of this study is to develop a prognostic model capable of predicting the probability of significant upgrading among Japanese patients. Methods. The study cohort comprised 508 men treated with RP, with available prostate-specific antigen levels, biopsy, and RP Gleason sum values. Clinical and pathological data from 258 patients were obtained from another Japanese institution for validation. Results. Significant Gleason sum upgrading was recorded in 92 patients (18.1%) at RP. The accuracy of the nomogram predicting the probability of significant Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and RP specimens was 88.9%. Overall AUC was 0.872 when applied to the validation data set. Nomogram predictions of significant upgrading were within 7.5% of an ideal nomogram. Conclusions. Nearly one-fifth of Japanese patients with prostate cancer will be significantly upgraded. Our nomogram seems to provide considerably accurate predictions regardless of minor variations in pathological assessment when applied to Japanese patient populations.

Predictive and prognostic models in radical prostatectomy candidates: a critical analysis of the literature

CONTEXT

Numerous predictive and prognostic tools have recently been developed for risk stratification of prostate cancer (PCa) patients who are candidates for or have been treated with radical prostatectomy (RP).

OBJECTIVE

To critically review the currently available predictive and prognostic tools for RP patients and to describe the criteria that should be applied in selecting the most accurate and appropriate tool for a given clinical scenario.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

A review of the literature was performed using the Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science databases. Relevant reports published between 1996 and January 2010 identified using the keywords prostate cancer, radical prostatectomy, predictive tools, predictive models, and nomograms were critically reviewed and summarised.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

We identified 16 predictive and 22 prognostic validated tools that address a variety of end points related to RP. The majority of tools are prediction models, while a few consist of risk-stratification schemes. Regardless of their format, the tools can be distinguished as preoperative or postoperative. Preoperative tools focus on either predicting pathologic tumour characteristics or assessing the probability of biochemical recurrence (BCR) after RP. Postoperative tools focus on cancer control outcomes (BCR, metastatic progression, PCa-specific mortality [PCSM], overall mortality). Finally, a novel category of tools focuses on functional outcomes. Prediction tools have shown better performance in outcome prediction than the opinions of expert clinicians. The use of these tools in clinical decision-making provides more accurate and highly reproducible estimates of the outcome of interest. Efforts are still needed to improve the available tools' accuracy and to provide more evidence to further justify their routine use in clinical practice. In addition, prediction tools should be externally validated in independent cohorts before they are applied to different patient populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive and prognostic tools represent valuable aids that are meant to consistently and accurately provide most evidence-based estimates of the end points of interest. More accurate, flexible, and easily accessible tools are needed to simplify the practical task of prediction.