Convincing or confusing? Economic evaluations of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination--a review (2002-2006)

Evidence gaps in economic analyses of hearing healthcare: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Hearing loss is a common and costly medical condition. This systematic review sought to identify evidence gaps in published model-based economic analyses addressing hearing loss to inform model development for an ongoing Lancet Commission.

METHODS

We searched the published literature through 14 June 2020 and our inclusion criteria included decision model-based cost-effectiveness analyses that addressed diagnosis, treatment, or prevention of hearing loss. Two investigators screened articles for inclusion at the title, abstract, and full-text levels. Data were abstracted and the studies were assessed for the qualities of model structure, data assumptions, and reporting using a previously published quality scale.

FINDINGS

Of 1437 articles identified by our search, 117 unique studies met the inclusion criteria. Most of these model-based analyses were set in high-income countries (n = 96, 82%). The evaluated interventions were hearing screening (n = 35, 30%), cochlear implantation (n = 34, 29%), hearing aid use (n = 28, 24%), vaccination (n = 22, 19%), and other interventions (n = 29, 25%); some studies included multiple interventions. Eighty-six studies reported the main outcome in quality-adjusted or disability-adjusted life-years, 24 of which derived their own utility values. The majority of the studies used decision tree (n = 72, 62%) or Markov (n = 41, 35%) models. Forty-one studies (35%) incorporated indirect economic effects. The median quality rating was 92/100 (IQR:72-100).

INTERPRETATION

The review identified a large body of literature exploring the economic efficiency of hearing healthcare interventions. However, gaps in evidence remain in evaluation of hearing healthcare in low- and middle-income countries, as well as in investigating interventions across the lifespan. Additionally, considerable uncertainty remains around productivity benefits of hearing healthcare interventions as well as utility values for hearing-assisted health states. Future economic evaluations could address these limitations.

FUNDING

NCATS 3UL1-TR002553-03S3.

A systematic literature review of economic evaluations of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in east and southeast Asia (2006-2019)

INTRODUCTION

Pneumococcal infections can lead to serious invasive diseases such as meningitis, septicemia and pneumonia, as well as milder but more common illnesses such as sinusitis and otitis media. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the inclusion of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in infant National Immunization Program (NIP) programs worldwide. Decision-makers in Asian countries planning to introduce PCVs in their respective NIP will need a comprehensive evidence of effectiveness of PCVs at the population level and economic evidence including cost-effectiveness.

AREAS COVERED

A systematic literature review (from 1/1/2016 to 10/11/2019) of PCVs in East and Southeast Asia to understand (1) the contributing factors to cost-effectiveness results of PCVs and (2) whether gaps in evidence exist suggesting why the region may have yet to implement full NIPs.

EXPERT OPINION

In East and Southeast Asia, vaccination with PCVs was found to significantly reduce the mortality and morbidity of pneumococcal diseases and was cost-effective compared to no vaccination. Study assumptions, specifically vaccine local acquisition, the inclusion or exclusion of indirect effects (serotype replacement and herd effect), cross-protection, and protection against nontypeable haemophilus influenzae and serotype 3, were the main drivers of cost-effectiveness.

Trends in governmental expenditure on vaccination programmes in the Netherlands, a historical analysis

BACKGROUND

Health economic evaluations are often required before implementing a vaccination programme. Such evaluations rarely consider the historical context of a vaccination programme. We review the financial history of vaccination programmes in the Netherlands, and compare these to demographic and macroeconomic developments as well as avoided mortality burden.

METHODS

Previously uncatalogued historical expenditures on the Dutch National Immunisation Programme (NIP) and influenza vaccination were obtained from official reports. Costs were adjusted for inflation using Consumer Price Indices and expressed in Euro of 2016. Estimates on mortality burden averted were obtained from previous research and used to calculate the ratio of expenses to averted mortality burden for vaccinations against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio, measles, mumps and rubella for birth cohorts 1953-1992.

RESULTS

Developments towards a uniform government funded NIP started early 1950s with vaccinations against diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus, culminating in its official launch in 1957 together with polio vaccinations. Since the 1980s, expenditure increased nearly five-fold mostly due to the addition of new vaccines, while spending on already implemented vaccinations tended to decline. Overall, expenditure increased from € 5 million in 1957 to € 93 million in 2014. Relative to total healthcare expenditure, the NIP contributed little, ranging between 0.05% and 0.14%. Spending on influenza vaccination increased from € 37 million in 1996 to € 52 million in 2014, while relative to total healthcare expenditure it decreased from 0.069% to 0.055%. In 2014, 0.15% of healthcare expenditure and € 533 per birth was spent on vaccination programmes. Overall, for birth cohorts 1953-1992, € 5.4 thousand (95% confidence interval: 4.0-7.3) was expended per year-of-life-lost averted.

CONCLUSION

The actual costs per year-of-life gained are more favorable than estimated here since averted medical costs were not included. Although expenditure on vaccination programmes increased substantially, the contribution to overall healthcare expenditure remained small.

Model Comparisons of the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination: A Systematic Review of the Literature

OBJECTIVES

To describe all published articles that have conducted comparisons of model-based effectiveness and cost-effectiveness results in the field of vaccination. Specific objectives were to 1) describe the methodologies used and 2) identify the strengths and limitations of the studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE and Embase databases for studies that compared predictions of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination of two or more mathematical models. We categorized studies into two groups on the basis of their data source for comparison (previously published results or new simulation results) and performed a qualitative synthesis of study conclusions.

RESULTS

We identified 115 eligible articles (only 5% generated new simulations from the reviewed models) examining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against 14 pathogens (69% of studies examined human papillomavirus, influenza, and/or pneumococcal vaccines). The goal of most of studies was to summarize evidence for vaccination policy decisions, and cost-effectiveness was the most frequent outcome examined. Only 33%, 25%, and 3% of studies followed a systematic approach to identify eligible studies, assessed the quality of studies, and performed a quantitative synthesis of results, respectively. A greater proportion of model comparisons using published studies followed a systematic approach to identify eligible studies and to assess their quality, whereas more studies using new simulations performed quantitative synthesis of results and identified drivers of model conclusions. Most comparative modeling studies concluded that vaccination was cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the variability in methods used to conduct/report comparative modeling studies, guidelines are required to enhance their quality and transparency and to provide better tools for decision making.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of infant pneumococcal vaccination with PHiD-CV in Korea

Background: Streptococcus pneumoniae and non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) can cause invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD), pneumonia, and acute otitis media (AOM). Both the 10-valent pneumococcal NTHi protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) and the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-13) are included in the National Immunization Program for infants in Korea. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the 3+1 schedule of PHiD-CV versus that of PCV-13 for National Immunization Program in Korea.

Methods: A published Markov model was adapted to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating the 2012 birth cohort with PHiD-CV vs. PCV-13 from the Korean government perspective over 10 y. Best available published data were used for epidemiology, vaccine efficacy and disutilities. Data on incidence and direct medical costs were taken from the national insurance claims database. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the robustness of the results.

Results: PHiD-CV was projected to prevent an additional 195,262 cases of pneumococcal diseases and NTHi-related diseases vs. PCV-13, with a substantially greater reduction in NTHi-related AOM and a comparable reduction in IPD and community-acquired pneumonia. Parity-priced PHiD-CV generated a health gain of about 844 quality-adjusted life years and a total cost-saving of approximately 4 million United States Dollars (USD) over 10 y. 93% of probabilistic simulations found PHiD-CV 3+1 to be the dominant vaccine option.

Conclusion: Compared to PCV-13, PHiD-CV was projected to provide similar prevention against IPD and community-acquired pneumonia but would prevent more cases of AOM. Parity-priced PHiD-CV was anticipated to generate substantial cost-savings and health benefits vs. PCV-13 in Korea.

Impact of vaccine herd-protection effects in cost-effectiveness analyses of childhood vaccinations. A quantitative comparative analysis

BACKGROUND

Inclusion of vaccine herd-protection effects in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) can impact the CEAs-conclusions. However, empirical epidemiologic data on the size of herd-protection effects from original studies are limited.

METHODS

We performed a quantitative comparative analysis of the impact of herd-protection effects in CEAs for four childhood vaccinations (pneumococcal, meningococcal, rotavirus and influenza). We considered CEAs reporting incremental-cost-effectiveness-ratios (ICERs) (per quality-adjusted-life-years [QALY] gained; per life-years [LY] gained or per disability-adjusted-life-years [DALY] avoided), both with and without herd protection, while keeping all other model parameters stable. We calculated the size of the ICER-differences without vs with-herd-protection and estimated how often inclusion of herd-protection led to crossing of the cost-effectiveness threshold (of an assumed societal-willingness-to-pay) of $50,000 for more-developed countries or X3GDP/capita (WHO-threshold) for less-developed countries.

RESULTS

We identified 35 CEA studies (20 pneumococcal, 4 meningococcal, 8 rotavirus and 3 influenza vaccines) with 99 ICER-analyses (55 per-QALY, 27 per-LY and 17 per-DALY). The median ICER-absolute differences per QALY, LY and DALY (without minus with herd-protection) were $15,620 (IQR: $877 to $48,376); $54,871 (IQR: $787 to $115,026) and $49 (IQR: $15 to $1,636) respectively. When the target-vaccination strategy was not cost-saving without herd-protection, inclusion of herd-protection always resulted in more favorable results. In CEAs that had ICERs above the cost-effectiveness threshold without herd-protection, inclusion of herd-protection led to crossing of that threshold in 45% of the cases. This impacted only CEAs for more developed countries, as all but one CEAs for less developed countries had ICERs below the WHO-cost-effectiveness threshold even without herd-protection. In several analyses, recommendation for the adoption of the target vaccination strategy depended on the inclusion of the herd protection effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Inclusion of herd-protection effects in CEAs had a substantial impact in the estimated ICERs and made target-vaccination strategies more attractive options in almost half of the cases where ICERs were above the societal-willingness to pay threshold without herd-protection. More empirical epidemiologic data are needed to determine the size of herd-protection effects across diverse settings and also the size of negative vaccine effects, e.g. from serotype substitution.

Cost Effectiveness of Pneumococcal Vaccination in Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Although pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been available for prevention of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae (S. pneumoniae) for over a decade, their adoption into national immunization programmes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is still limited. Economic evaluations (EEs) play a crucial role in support of evidence-informed decisions.

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review aims to provide a critical summary of EEs of PCVs and identify key drivers of EE findings in LMICs.

METHODS

We searched Scopus, ISI Web of Science, PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Central from their inception to 30 September 2015 and limited the search to LMICs. The search was undertaken using the search strings 'pneumococc* AND conjugat* AND (vaccin* OR immun*)' AND 'economic OR cost-effectiveness OR cost-benefit OR cost-utility OR cost-effectiveness OR cost-benefit OR cost-utility' in the abstract, title or keyword fields. To be included, each study had to be a full EE of a PCV and conducted for an LMIC. Studies were extracted and reviewed by two authors. The review involved standard extraction of the study overview or the characteristics of the study, key drivers or parameters of the EE, assumptions behind the analyses and major areas of uncertainty.

RESULTS

Out of 134 records identified, 22 articles were included. Seven studies used a Markov model for analysis, while 15 studies used a decision-tree analytic model. Eighteen studies performed a cost-utility analysis (CUA), with disability-adjusted life-years, quality-adjusted life-years or life-years gained as a measure of health outcome, while four studies focused only on cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Both CEA and CUA findings were provided by eight studies. Herd effects and serotype replacement were considered in 10 and 13 studies, respectively. The current evidence shows that both the 10-valent and 13-valent PCVs are probably cost effective in comparison with the 7-valent PCV or no vaccination. The most influential parameters were vaccine efficacy and coverage (in 16 of 22 studies), vaccine price (in 13 of 22 studies), disease incidence (in 11 of 22 studies), mortality from IPD and pneumonia (in 8 of 22 studies) and herd effects (in 4 of 22 studies). The findings were found to be supportive of the products owned by the manufacturers.

CONCLUSION

Our review demonstrated that an infant PCV programme was a cost-effective intervention in most LMICs (in 20 of 22 studies included). The results were sensitive to vaccine efficacy, price, burden of disease and sponsorship. Decision makers should consider EE findings and affordability before adoption of PCVs.

Methodological Challenges to Economic Evaluations of Vaccines: Is a Common Approach Still Possible?

Economic evaluation of vaccination is a key tool to inform effective spending on vaccines. However, many evaluations have been criticised for failing to capture features of vaccines which are relevant to decision makers. These include broader societal benefits (such as improved educational achievement, economic growth and political stability), reduced health disparities, medical innovation, reduced hospital beds pressures, greater peace of mind and synergies in economic benefits with non-vaccine interventions. Also, the fiscal implications of vaccination programmes are not always made explicit. Alternative methodological frameworks have been proposed to better capture these benefits. However, any broadening of the methodology for economic evaluation must also involve evaluations of non-vaccine interventions, and hence may not always benefit vaccines given a fixed health-care budget. The scope of an economic evaluation must consider the budget from which vaccines are funded, and the decision-maker's stated aims for that spending to achieve.

Health Gains and Financial Protection from Pneumococcal Vaccination and Pneumonia Treatment in Ethiopia: Results from an Extended Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia and pneumococcal disease cause a large disease burden in resource-constrained settings. We pursue an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) of two fully publicly financed interventions in Ethiopia: pneumococcal vaccination for newborns and pneumonia treatment for under-five children in Ethiopia.

METHODS

We apply ECEA methods and estimate the program impact on: (1) government program costs; (2) pneumonia and pneumococcal deaths averted; (3) household expenses related to pneumonia/pneumococcal disease treatment averted; (4) prevention of household medical impoverishment measured by an imputed money-metric value of financial risk protection; and (5) distributional consequences across the wealth strata of the country population. Available epidemiological and cost data from Ethiopia are applied and the two interventions are assessed separately at various incremental coverage levels.

RESULTS

Scaling-up pneumococcal vaccines at around 40% coverage would cost about $11.5 million and avert about 2090 child deaths annually, while a 10% increase of pneumonia treatment to all children under 5 years of age would cost about $13.9 million and avert 2610 deaths annually. Health benefits of the two interventions publicly financed would be concentrated among the bottom income quintile, where 30-40% of all deaths averted would be expected to occur in the poorest quintile. In sum, the two interventions would eliminate a total of $2.4 million of private household expenditures annually, where the richest quintile benefits from around 30% of the total private expenditures averted. The financial risk protection benefits would be largely concentrated among the bottom income quintile. The results are most sensitive to variations in vaccine price, population size, number of deaths due to pneumonia, efficacy of interventions and out-of-pocket copayment share.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccine and treatment interventions for children, as shown with the illustrative examples of pneumococcal vaccine and pneumonia treatment, can bring large health and financial benefits to households in Ethiopia, most particularly among the poorest socio-economic groups.

Stakeholders' perception on including broader economic impact of vaccines in economic evaluations in low and middle income countries: a mixed methods study

Background

Current health economic evaluation guidelines mainly concentrate on immediate health gains and cost savings for the individual involved in the intervention. However, it has been argued that these guidelines are too narrow to capture the full impact of vaccination in low and middle income countries. The inclusion of broader economic impact of vaccines (BEIV) has therefore been proposed. Some examples of these are productivity-related gains, macro-economic impact, and different externalities. Despite their potency, the extent to which such benefits can and should be incorporated into economic evaluations of vaccination is still unclear. This mixed methods study aims to assess the relevance of BEIV to different stakeholders involved in the vaccine introduction decision making process.

Methods

In this mixed method study an internet based survey was sent to attendees of the New and Underutilized Vaccines Initiative meeting in Montreux, Switzerland in 2011. Additionally, semi-structured interviews of 15 minutes each were conducted during the meeting. Study participants included decision makers, experts and funders of vaccines and immunization programs in low and middle income countries. Descriptive analysis of the survey, along with identification of common themes and factors extracted from the interviews and open survey questions was undertaken.

Results

Evidence on macro-economic impact, burden of disease and ecological effects were perceived as being most valuable towards aiding decision making for vaccine introduction by the 26 survey respondents. The 14 interviewees highlighted the importance of burden of disease and different types of indirect effects. Furthermore, some new interpretations of BEIVs were discussed, such as the potential negative impact of wastage during immunization programs and the idea of using vaccines as a platform for delivering other types of health interventions. Interviewees also highlighted the importance of using a broader perspective in connection to measuring economic impacts, particularly when attempting to derive the value of newer, more expensive vaccines.

Conclusion

According to participants, BEIVs were seen as being equally important as traditional outcome measures used in cost-effectiveness analyses. Such insight can be used to shape research agendas within this field and to eventually create broader, more inclusive practical guidelines for economic evaluations of vaccines.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-1638-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Choosing between 7-, 10- and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in childhood: a review of economic evaluations (2006-2014)

BACKGROUND

Seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV7) have been used in children for more than a decade. Given the observed increase in disease caused by pneumococcal serotypes not covered by PCV7, an increasing number of countries are switching from 7-valent to 10- and 13-valent PCVs ("PCV10" and "PCV13"). Economic evaluations are important tools to inform decisions and price negotiations to make such a switch.

OBJECTIVE

This review aims to provide a critical assessment of economic evaluations involving PCV10 or PCV13, published since 2006.

METHODS

We searched Scopus, ISI Web of Science (SCI and SSCI) and Pubmed to retrieve, select and review relevant studies, which were archived between 1st January 2006 and 31st January 2014. The review protocol involved standard extraction of assumptions, methods, results and sponsorships from the original studies.

RESULTS

Sixty-three economic evaluations on PCVs published since January 2006 were identified. About half of these evaluated PCV10 and/or PCV13, the subject of this review. At current prices, both PCV13 and PCV10 were likely judged preferable to PCV7. However, the combined uncertainty related to price differences, burden of disease, vaccine effectiveness, herd and serotype replacement effects determine the preference base for either PCV10 or PCV13. The pivotal assumptions and results of these analyses also depended on which manufacturer sponsored the study.

CONCLUSION

A more thorough exploration of uncertainty should be made in future analyses on this subject, as we lack understanding to adequately model herd and serotype replacement effects to reliably predict the population impact of PCVs. The introduction of further improved PCVs in an environment of evolving antibiotic resistance and under the continuing influence of previous PCVs implies that the complexity and data requirements for relevant analyses will further increase. Decision makers using these analyses should not just rely on an analysis from a single manufacturer.

Impact of 2+1 pneumococcal conjugate vaccine program in the province of Quebec, Canada

BACKGROUND

Quebec was the first jurisdiction in the world to recommend a 3-dose (2+1) pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) schedule. The program was implemented in December 2004 with a catch-up for children <5 years. PCV-7 was first used and replaced, respectively, by PCV-10 in 2009 and by PCV-13 in 2011.

METHODS

Cases of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) notified to public health authorities and isolates submitted to the provincial reference laboratory during the period 2000-2011 were analyzed.

RESULTS

IPD incidence in children <5 years was 67/100,000 in 2001-2004, and decreased to 32/100,000 in 2007-2009 following PCV-7 implementation (p<0.01). A further decrease to 24/100,000 was observed in 2010-2011 following PCV-10 introduction (p<0.01). PCV-7 serotypes represented 82% of the total IPD cases in 2000-2004 and elimination was achieved in 2011. Main emerging serotypes were 19A and 7F. Children exposed to the PCV-10 experienced lower IPD rates and all serotypes contributed to the decline, mainly 7F and 19A. In adults, a decrease of low magnitude was observed in 2005-2006 but rates in 2007-2009 were higher than in the prevaccination period.

CONCLUSIONS

A 3-dose PCV schedule with high uptake is highly effective and should be recommended worldwide. Serotype replacement eroded benefits especially in adults. PCV-10 introduction had an effect and the impact of PCV-13 use remains to be evaluated.

Cost effectiveness of the new pneumococcal vaccines: a systematic review of European studies

INTRODUCTION

Diseases caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) are a major global public health problem. Despite their importance, information on the burden of the different pneumococcal diseases is limited and estimates vary widely.

OBJECTIVE AND METHODS

We critically reviewed the full economic evaluations (FEEs) on the new pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) conducted in the European Union (EU) to assess their potential contribution to public decision making. We selected the FEEs focussed on PCV-10 and PCV-13 and published in English from January 2007 until June 2013. We screened the selected articles to assess their main methodological features using a common checklist composed of epidemiological, clinical and economic items.

RESULTS

All the ten studies selected were based on modelling and the time horizon was always long term. Two studies focused on adults, the remaining eight on infants. Only one study based herd immunity on national data, eight used foreign data or modelling and the last did not consider it. National prices and tariffs were claimed to be sources for unit costs in all studies; however, half of them assumed price parity when one vaccine was not yet marketed, and the figures varied within the countries where more than one study was conducted. Conclusions supported the economic utility of pneumococcal vaccination in all studies, raising some concern only in (i) the independent study, which found that PCV-13 was borderline cost effective, and (ii) the study sponsored by both manufacturers, which estimated an incremental ratio slightly above the national threshold for both PCV-10 and PCV-13.

CONCLUSION

The European studies we analysed are mostly based on weak sources of data. Because of the limited information on vaccine effectiveness and lack of epidemiological and economic data, the need for extensive recourse to assumptions leads to great within- and between-study variability generated by authors' choices.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of a 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children in six Latin American countries

Background

A recently developed 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable H influenzae protein D-conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) is expected to afford protection against more than two thirds of isolates causing IPD in children in Latin America, and also against acute otitis media caused by both Spn and NTHi. The objective of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of PHiD-CV in comparison to non-vaccination in children under 10 years of age in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru.

Methods

We used a static, deterministic, compartmental simulation model. The dosing regimen considered included three vaccine doses (at 2 months, 4 months and 6 months) and a booster dose (at 13 months) (3 + 1 schedule). Model outcomes included number of cases prevented, deaths averted, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and costs. Discount for costs and benefits of long term sequelae was done at 3.5%, and currency reported in 2008-2009 U$S varying between countries.

Results

The largest effect in case prevention was observed in pneumococcal meningitis (from 27% in Peru to 47% in Colombia), neurologic sequelae after meningitis (from 38% in Peru to 65% in Brazil) and bacteremia (from 42% in Argentina to 49% in Colombia). The proportion of predicted deaths averted annually ranged from 18% in Peru to 33% in Brazil. Overall, the health benefits achieved with PHiD-CV vaccination resulted in a lower QALY loss (from 15% lower in Peru to 26% in Brazil). At a cost of USD 20 per vaccine dose, vaccination was cost-effective in all countries, from being cost saving in Chile to a maximum Incremental Cost-effectiveness Ratio of 7,088 US$ Dollars per QALY gained. Results were robust in the sensitivity analysis, and scenarios with indirect costs affected results more than those with herd immunity.

Conclusions

The incorporation of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine into routine infant immunization programs in Latin American countries could be a cost-effective strategy to improve infant population health in the region.

Potential cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) in Turkey

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal infection is an important and preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. The Turkish government introduced 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) into the national immunization program in 2009. This suggests that replacing 7-valent PCV with a higher-valent version could at least maintain "standard of care" if not improve it, and that it could be affordable.

OBJECTIVES AND METHODS

The aim of this analysis was to assess the potential direct cost-effectiveness of 13-valent PCV in Turkey, a country with a birth cohort of 1.4 million, against a "no vaccine" state, against the default 7-valent PCV state, and against a 10-valent PCV state, using a published cohort model with a 5-year horizon.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The cost per life-year gained is below the 1 × per-capita gross domestic product threshold across large changes in key input parameters, indicating that the model is stable and suggesting that any PCV would be very cost-effective in a Turkish national pediatric immunization schedule.

Assessment of health benefits and cost-effectiveness of 10-valent and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in Kenyan children

BACKGROUND

The GAVI Alliance supported 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) introduction in Kenya. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of introducing either PCV10 or the 13-valent vaccine (PCV13) from a societal perspective and explored the incremental impact of including indirect vaccine effects.

METHODS

The costs and effects of pneumococcal vaccination among infants born in Kenya in 2010 were assessed using a decision analytic model comparing PCV10 or PCV13, in turn, with no vaccination. Direct vaccine effects were estimated as a reduction in the incidence of pneumococcal meningitis, sepsis, bacteraemic pneumonia and non-bacteraemic pneumonia. Pneumococcal disease incidence was extrapolated from a population-based hospital surveillance system in Kilifi and adjustments were made for variable access to care across Kenya. We used vaccine efficacy estimates from a trial in The Gambia and accounted for serotype distribution in Kilifi. We estimated indirect vaccine protection and serotype replacement by extrapolating from the USA. Multivariable sensitivity analysis was conducted using Monte Carlo simulation. We assumed a vaccine price of US$ 3.50 per dose.

FINDINGS

The annual cost of delivering PCV10 was approximately US$14 million. We projected a 42.7% reduction in pneumococcal disease episodes leading to a US$1.97 million reduction in treatment costs and a 6.1% reduction in childhood mortality annually. In the base case analysis, costs per discounted DALY and per death averted by PCV10, amounted to US$ 59 (95% CI 26-103) and US$ 1,958 (95% CI 866-3,425), respectively. PCV13 introduction improved the cost-effectiveness ratios by approximately 20% and inclusion of indirect effects improved cost-effectiveness ratios by 43-56%. The break-even prices for introduction of PCV10 and PCV13 are US$ 0.41 and 0.51, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing either PCV10 or PCV13 in Kenya is highly cost-effective from a societal perspective. Indirect effects, if they occur, would significantly improve the cost-effectiveness.

Delivering vaccines for the prevention of pneumonia - programmatic and financial issues

Pneumonia is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children younger than 5 years. Vaccines are available against the main bacterial pathogens Haemophilus influenzae type b and Streptococcus pneumoniae. There are also vaccines against measles and pertussis; diseases that can predispose a child to pneumonia. Partners such as the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI), the Hib Initiative, the Accelerated Development and Introduction Plan for pneumococcal vaccines and the Measles Initiative, have accelerated the introduction of vaccines into developing countries. Whilst significant improvements in vaccine coverage have occurred globally over the past decade, there still remains an urgent need to scale-up key pneumonia protection and treatment interventions as identified in the Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia (GAPP). There is promise that global immunisation will continue to improve child survival. However, there are several challenges to vaccine implementation that must first be addressed, including: a lack of access to under-served and marginalised populations; inadequate planning and management; a lack of political commitment; weak monitoring and surveillance programmes and assured sustainable finance and supply of quality vaccines. There is an urgent need to increase global awareness of the devastation that pneumonia brings to the worlds poorest communities.

Pneumococcal transmission and disease in silico: a microsimulation model of the indirect effects of vaccination

Background

The degree and time frame of indirect effects of vaccination (serotype replacement and herd immunity) are key determinants in assessing the net effectiveness of vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in control of pneumococcal disease. Using modelling, we aimed to quantify these effects and their dependence on coverage of vaccination and the vaccine's efficacy against susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage.

Methods and Findings

We constructed an individual-based simulation model that explores the effects of large-scale PCV programmes and applied it in a developed country setting (Finland). A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups (families, day care groups, schools and neighbourhoods) was considered in order to properly assess the dependency of herd immunity on coverage of vaccination and vaccine efficacy against carriage. Issues regarding potential serotype replacement were addressed by employing a novel competition structure between multiple pneumococcal serotypes. Model parameters were calibrated from pre-vaccination data about the age-specific carriage prevalence and serotype distribution. The model predicts that elimination of vaccine-type carriage and disease among those vaccinated and, due to a substantial herd effect, also among the general population takes place within 5–10 years since the onset of a PCV programme with high (90%) coverage of vaccination and moderate (50%) vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage. A near-complete replacement of vaccine-type carriage by non-vaccine-type carriage occurs within the same time frame.

Conclusions

The changed patterns in pneumococcal carriage after PCV vaccination predicted by the model are unequivocal. The overall effect on disease incidence depends crucially on the magnitude of age- and serotype-specific case-to-carrier ratios of the remaining serotypes relative to those of the vaccine types. Thus the availability of reliable data on the incidence of both pneumococcal carriage and disease is essential in assessing the net effectiveness of PCV vaccination in a given epidemiological setting.

Childhood varicella-zoster virus vaccination in Belgium: cost-effective only in the long run or without exogenous boosting?

AIM

To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a universal childhood varicella-zoster vaccination programme in Belgium (1) using the most recent Belgian data on varicella-zoster burden, (2) exploring different options for the timing of the second dose, (3) obtaining results with and without exogenous natural boosting, and (4) investigating the possible additional benefit of zoster booster vaccination for adults at age 50 or 60 y.

METHODS

An extensively studied and improved dynamic model is used to estimate primary and breakthrough chickenpox and zoster cases over time. For a range of vaccination options, we compared the direct costs (health care payer perspective) and health outcomes (including Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs) lost) associated with chickenpox and herpes zoster. Estimates of social contact patterns, health care use, costs and QALY losses are almost exclusively based on Belgian databases and surveys.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

If exogenous natural boosting exists, a net loss in QALYs is expected for several decades after implementing a universal chickenpox vaccination programme, due to an increase in zoster mainly in persons aged 50-80 y. This result holds also for scenarios that minimise or counteract the expected increase in zoster incidence (e.g. additional booster vaccinations in adults). However, if the boosting hypothesis is not true or if costs and QALYs are cumulated over at least 33 to more than 100 y after vaccination (depending on the assumptions made), different options for universal 2-dose vaccination against chickenpox in Belgium would be cost-effective at a vaccine price of €43/dose or lower.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine: review of cost-effectiveness studies in Australia, North America and Europe

The pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) is the first vaccine proven to be effective in reducing the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease, pneumonia and acute otitis media in children, and has been recommended for universal use in children in a number of high-income countries. The high cost of the vaccine relative to previous vaccines has generated interest in assessing its cost-effectiveness and numerous cost-effectiveness analyses of PCV have been performed in Australia, North America and Europe. The primary objectives of this review are to enhance the ability to make direct comparisons between these analyses, to aid in the identification and interpretation of methodological differences and to summarize the findings. Although these studies varied greatly in terms of methodology and assumptions, if and when indirect effects and quality-of-life improvements are taken into account, the cost-effectiveness ratios of PCV in these countries are likely to be within the ranges generally considered favorable vis-à-vis other health interventions.

Prevention of pneumococcal diseases in the post-seven valent vaccine era: a European perspective

BACKGROUND

The burden of invasive pneumococcal disease in young children decreased dramatically following introduction of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7). The epidemiology of S. pneumoniae now reflects infections caused by serotypes not included in PCV7. Recently introduced higher valency pneumococcal vaccines target the residual burden of invasive and non-invasive infections, including those caused by serotypes not included in PCV7. This review is based on presentations made at the European Society of Pediatric Infectious Diseases in June 2011.

DISCUSSION

Surveillance data show increased circulation of the non-PCV7 vaccine serotypes 1, 3, 6A, 6C, 7 F and 19A in countries with routine vaccination. Preliminary evidence suggests that broadened serotype coverage offered by higher valency vaccines may be having an effect on invasive disease caused by some of those serotypes, including 19A, 7 F and 6C. Aetiology of community acquired pneumonia remains a difficult clinical diagnosis. However, recent reports indicate that pneumococcal vaccination has reduced hospitalisations of children for vaccine serotype pneumonia. Variations in serotype circulation and occurrence of complicated and non-complicated pneumonia caused by non-PCV7 serotypes highlight the potential of higher valency vaccines to decrease the remaining burden. PCVs reduce nasopharyngeal carriage and acute otitis media (AOM) caused by vaccine serotypes. Recent investigations of the interaction between S. pneumoniae and non-typeable H. influenzae suggest that considerable reduction in severe, complicated AOM infections may be achieved by prevention of early pneumococcal carriage and AOM infections. Extension of the vaccine serotype spectrum beyond PCV7 may provide additional benefit in preventing the evolution of AOM. The direct and indirect costs associated with pneumococcal disease are high, thus herd protection and infections caused by non-vaccine serotypes both have strong effects on the cost effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination. Recent evaluations highlight the public health significance of indirect benefits, prevention of pneumonia and AOM and coverage of non-PCV7 serotypes by higher valency vaccines.

SUMMARY

Routine vaccination has greatly reduced the burden of pneumococcal diseases in children. The pneumococcal serotypes present in the 7-valent vaccine have greatly diminished among disease isolates. The prevalence of some non-vaccine serotypes (e.g. 1, 7 F and 19A) has increased. Pneumococcal vaccines with broadened serotype coverage are likely to continue decreasing the burden of invasive disease, and community acquired pneumonia in children. Further reductions in pneumococcal carriage and increased prevention of early AOM infections may prevent the evolution of severe, complicated AOM. Evaluation of the public health benefits of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines should include consideration of non-invasive pneumococcal infections, indirect effects of vaccination and broadened serotype coverage.

Health and economic impact of PHiD-CV in Canada and the UK: a Markov modelling exercise

OBJECTIVE

The spectrum of diseases caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae and non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) represents a large burden on healthcare systems around the world. Meningitis, bacteraemia, community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), and acute otitis media (AOM) are vaccine-preventable infectious diseases that can have severe consequences. The health economic model presented here is intended to estimate the clinical and economic impact of vaccinating birth cohorts in Canada and the UK with the 10-valent, pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) compared with the newly licensed 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-13).

METHODS

The model described herein is a Markov cohort model built to simulate the epidemiological burden of pneumococcal- and NTHi-related diseases within birth cohorts in the UK and Canada. Base-case assumptions include estimates of vaccine efficacy and NTHi infection rates that are based on published literature.

RESULTS

The model predicts that the two vaccines will provide a broadly similar impact on all-cause invasive disease and CAP under base-case assumptions. However, PHiD-CV is expected to provide a substantially greater reduction in AOM compared with PCV-13, offering additional savings of Canadian $9.0 million and £4.9 million in discounted direct medical costs in Canada and the UK, respectively.

LIMITATIONS

The main limitations of the study are the difficulties in modelling indirect vaccine effects (herd effect and serotype replacement), the absence of PHiD-CV- and PCV-13-specific efficacy data and a lack of comprehensive NTHi surveillance data. Additional limitations relate to the fact that the transmission dynamics of pneumococcal serotypes have not been modelled, nor has antibiotic resistance been accounted for in this paper.

CONCLUSION

This cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that, in Canada and the UK, PHiD-CV's potential to protect against NTHi infections could provide a greater impact on overall disease burden than the additional serotypes contained in PCV-13.

Pharmacoeconomic assessment of implementing a universal PCV-13 vaccination programme in the Valencian public health system (Spain)

BACKGROUND

Heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) was licensed to provide immunity against pneumococcal disease caused by seven serotypes of S. pneumoniae. Thirteen-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-13) includes 6 additional serotypes for preventing invasive pneumococcal disease.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to estimate the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of vaccination with PCV-13 in the Community of Valencia and to generate valuable information for policy makers at regional and country levels.

METHODS

A decision tree was designed to determine the health and economic outcomes in hypothetical cohorts of vaccinated and unvaccinated children followed over their lifetime. Information about disease incidence and serotype distribution were gathered from local databases and from published and unpublished local records. PCV-13 effectiveness was extrapolated from PCV-7 efficacy data. A 5% of herd effect and a serotype replacement of 25% were considered for the base case scenario. Only direct costs were taken into account and results were expressed in terms of life-years gained (LYG) and quality adjusted life years (QALY).

RESULTS

Implementing a universal PCV-13 vaccination program in the Community of Valencia would decrease the number of hospital admitted pneumonia to less than 4571 cases while avoiding 310 cases of IPD and 82,596 cases of AOM throughout the cohort lifetime. A total of 190 S. pneumoniae related deaths would be averted over the same period. Total medical costs of non-vaccinating the cohort of newborns would reach up to 403,850.859€ compared to 438,762.712€ that would represent vaccinating the cohort. The incremental cost of vaccinating the children was estimated in 12,794€/LYG and 10,407€/QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A universal PCV-13 vaccination program in the Community of Valencia would be a cost-effective intervention from the payer perspective after preventing for pneumococcal infections and for decreasing its associated mortality and morbidity.

The cost effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in the routine infant immunisation programme of The Gambia

Objectives

To evaluate the cost effectiveness of the use of nine-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine in a routine infant immunisation programme based on the Pneumococcal Vaccine Trial (PVT) study in The Gambia.

Methods

This was a clinical trial-based cost-effectiveness study conducted as part of the PVT study. The PVT was an intention-to-treat double-blind placebo-controlled trial of a nine-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine. The trial was conducted in the eastern parts of The Gambia, West Africa and recruited 17 437 children aged 40–364 days. A deterministic static cohort model was developed to evaluate direct benefits and costs of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in The Gambia's routine immunisation programme. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (iCER) is defined as vaccinating infants against pneumococcal disease compared with no vaccination from a public provider's perspective using The Gambia's 2005 projected under-one-year population.

Key findings

The results show the use of the vaccine in The Gambia's routine infant vaccination programme to be cost effective using an assumed price of US$5.00 per vial in single-dose vials. Compared with offering no vaccination, the incremental cost per DALYs averted would be 30 DALYs from the public provider perspective. At least 1569 and 340 invasive childhood pneumococcal illnesses and deaths respectively among the cohort would be prevented. In the absence of the vaccine 16 871 DALYs would be lost while with the use of the vaccine 7804 DALYs would be lost. Given the average treatment cost of pneumococcal illnesses to be US$191 (95% confidence interval 180 to 203) the introduction of the vaccine programme would lead to an additional cost of US$274 279 (about US$8.43/child).

Conclusions

The availability of a cost-effective vaccine that can prevent thousands of pneumococcal illnesses and related deaths is a major development towards improving the disease burden in sub-Saharan African countries. This study supports the introduction of nine-valent pneumococcal vaccine into the infant immunisation programme of The Gambia as it is cost effective and will avert many preventable deaths and illnesses. Despite differences in distribution of serotypes between countries, the static model used in the analysis makes the results applicable to other developing countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa.

Cost effectiveness of pediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: a comparative assessment of decision-making tools

BACKGROUND

Several decision support tools have been developed to aid policymaking regarding the adoption of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) into national pediatric immunization programs. The lack of critical appraisal of these tools makes it difficult for decision makers to understand and choose between them. With the aim to guide policymakers on their optimal use, we compared publicly available decision-making tools in relation to their methods, influential parameters and results.

METHODS

The World Health Organization (WHO) requested access to several publicly available cost-effectiveness (CE) tools for PCV from both public and private provenance. All tools were critically assessed according to the WHO's guide for economic evaluations of immunization programs. Key attributes and characteristics were compared and a series of sensitivity analyses was performed to determine the main drivers of the results. The results were compared based on a standardized set of input parameters and assumptions.

RESULTS

Three cost-effectiveness modeling tools were provided, including two cohort-based (Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) ProVac Initiative TriVac, and PneumoADIP) and one population-based model (GlaxoSmithKline's SUPREMES). They all compared the introduction of PCV into national pediatric immunization program with no PCV use. The models were different in terms of model attributes, structure, and data requirement, but captured a similar range of diseases. Herd effects were estimated using different approaches in each model. The main driving parameters were vaccine efficacy against pneumococcal pneumonia, vaccine price, vaccine coverage, serotype coverage and disease burden. With a standardized set of input parameters developed for cohort modeling, TriVac and PneumoADIP produced similar incremental costs and health outcomes, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccine cost (dose price and number of doses), vaccine efficacy and epidemiology of critical endpoint (for example, incidence of pneumonia, distribution of serotypes causing pneumonia) were influential parameters in the models we compared. Understanding the differences and similarities of such CE tools through regular comparisons could render decision-making processes in different countries more efficient, as well as providing guiding information for further clinical and epidemiological research. A tool comparison exercise using standardized data sets can help model developers to be more transparent about their model structure and assumptions and provide analysts and decision makers with a more in-depth view behind the disease dynamics. Adherence to the WHO guide of economic evaluations of immunization programs may also facilitate this process. Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/9/55.

Modelling the epidemiology of infectious diseases for decision analysis: a primer

The number of economic evaluations related to infectious disease topics has increased over the last 2 decades. However, many such evaluations rely on models that do not take into account unique features of infectious diseases that can affect the estimated value of interventions against them. These include their transmissibility from infected to susceptible individuals, the possibility of acquiring natural immunity following recovery from infection and the uncertainties that arise as a result of their complex natural history and epidemiology. Modellers conducting economic evaluations of infectious disease interventions need to know the main features of different types of infectious disease models, the situations in which they should be applied and the effects of model choices on the cost effectiveness of interventions.

Burden of disease and economic evaluation of healthcare interventions: are we investigating what really matters?

Background

The allocation of limited available healthcare resources demands an agreed rational allocation principle and the consequent priority setting. We assessed the association between economic evaluations of healthcare interventions published in Spain (1983-2008) and the disease burden in the population.

Methods

Electronic databases (e.g., PubMed/MEDLINE, SCOPUS, ISI Web of Knowledge, CRD, IME, IBECS) and reports from health technology assessment agencies were systematically reviewed. For each article, multiple variables were recorded such as: year and journal of publication, type of study, health intervention targetted, perspective of analysis, type of costs and sources of information, first author's affiliation, explicit recommendations aimed at decision-making, and the main disease cause to which the intervention was addressed. The following disease burden measures were calculated: years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality by cause. Correlation and linear regression models were fitted.

Results

Four hundred and seventy-seven economic evaluations were identified. Cardiovascular diseases (15.7%), infectious diseases (15.3%), malignant neoplasms (13.2%), and neuropsychiatric diseases (9.6%) were the conditions most commonly addressed. Accidents and injuries, congenital anomalies, oral conditions, nutritional deficiencies and other neoplasms were the categories with a lowest number of studies (0.6% for each of them). For the main disease categories (n = 20), a correlation was seen with: mortality 0.67 (p = 0.001), DALYs 0.63 (p = 0.003), YLLs 0.54 (p = 0.014), and YLDs 0.51 (p = 0.018). By disease sub-categories (n = 51), the correlations were generally low and non statistically significant.

Conclusions

Examining discrepancies between economic evaluations in particular diseases and the overall burden of disease helps shed light on whether there are potentially over- and under-investigated areas. The approach taken could help policy-makers understand whether resources for economic evaluation are being allocated by using summary measures of population health.

Effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on serotype-specific carriage and invasive disease in England: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

We investigated the effect of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) programme in England on serotype-specific carriage and invasive disease to help understand its role in serotype replacement and predict the impact of higher valency vaccines.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Nasopharyngeal swabs were taken from children <5 y old and family members (n=400) 2 y after introduction of PCV7 into routine immunization programs. Proportions carrying Streptococcus pneumoniae and serotype distribution among carried isolates were compared with a similar population prior to PCV7 introduction. Serotype-specific case carrier ratios (CCRs) were estimated using national data on invasive disease. In vaccinated children and their contacts vaccine-type (VT) carriage decreased, but was offset by an increase in non-VT carriage, with no significant overall change in carriage prevalence, odds ratio 1.06 (95% confidence interval 0.76-1.49). The lower CCRs of the replacing serotypes resulted in a net reduction in invasive disease in children. The additional serotypes covered by higher valency vaccines had low carriage but high disease prevalence. Serotype 11C emerged as predominant in carriage but caused no invasive disease whereas 8, 12F, and 22F emerged in disease but had very low carriage prevalence.

CONCLUSION

Because the additional serotypes included in PCV10/13 have high CCRs but low carriage prevalence, vaccinating against them is likely to significantly reduce invasive disease with less risk of serotype replacement. However, a few serotypes with high CCRs could mitigate the benefits of higher valency vaccines. Assessment of the effect of PCV on carriage as well as invasive disease should be part of enhanced surveillance activities for PCVs. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Modelling the effect of conjugate vaccines in pneumococcal disease: cohort or population models?

Cohort and population models estimate vaccine impact on disease events, and yield different estimates in countries with different demographic compositions. We compared administration of the new 10-valent pneumococcal Haemophilus influenzae-protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) with no vaccination in two countries, the United Kingdom (UK) and Mexico, using two modelling strategies: a cohort model and a population model. The cohort model followed a birth cohort over a lifetime, beginning 10 years after initiation of the vaccine program, when vaccine efficacy steady state had been reached. The population model examined the country-specific population over 1 year, also beginning 10 years after initiation of the vaccine program. Both models included the same age-specific disease rates of meningitis, bacteraemia, pneumonia, and otitis media. The output variables were the numbers of specific events, with and without indirect vaccine effects. Without indirect effects, the cohort and population models produced similar results for both countries (deviation of <20% difference per output measure for most outcomes). The difference between the model types was much greater when indirect vaccine effects were included, especially in Mexico (up to 120% difference). Cohort and population modelling methods produce different results depending on the disease, the intervention, the demographic composition, and the time horizon evaluated. Results from the two model types provide different information about the impact of interventions on events: accumulated vaccine benefit for an individual in a cohort model; vaccine benefit for a whole population at a specific time point in a population model.

Modeling the impact of a new vaccine on pneumococcal and nontypable Haemophilus influenzae diseases: a new simulation model

BACKGROUND

A heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) is available to immunize infants against pneumococcal disease. However, a recently developed vaccine, pneumococcal nontypable Haemophilus influenzae protein D-conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV), has recently been licensed. PHiD-CV contains 3 additional Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes and may provide protection against nontypable H influenzae (NTHi) infection. New health economic models are required to model the impact of PHiD-CV and compare its effectiveness with PCV-7.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this article was to design a model capable of projecting the pneumococcal and NTHi disease burden on the entire UK population under different schedules of PCV-7 and PHiD-CV. This model should also be capable of modeling the net indirect effect of vaccination (ie, the sum of serotype replacement and herd protection).

METHODS

A static, deterministic, age-compartmental model was created based on published information and the input of a board of experts in pneumococcal disease. The model presents results from both a payer-based and societal perspective. A 1-way sensitivity analysis was used to demonstrate the robustness of the model. Key parameters included the case fatality ratio for bacteremia, the hospitalization rate for acute otitis media (AOM), and parameters surrounding the extent of the net indirect effect of vaccination.

RESULTS

Excluding net indirect effect, 325 cases of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), 619 hospitalizations for pneumonia, and 9016 general practitioner visits for AOM would be prevented annually with the current PCV-7 2 + 1 program. These numbers would increase to 374, 755, and 30,920, respectively, using a PHiD-CV 2 + 1 regimen, or to 503, 994, and 47,180 using a PHiD-CV 3 + 1 regimen. When a net indirect effect of 38% is considered, health benefits could be much larger; 2417, 2451, and 3045 IPD cases would be prevented in the 3 scenarios, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

It is predicted that any vaccination program in the United Kingdom would have a striking impact on the incidence of all outcomes analyzed. A PHiD-CV 3 + 1 schedule is predicted to have a greater effect than PCV-7 in all scenarios. While the primary purpose of vaccination would be to prevent IPD and pneumonia hospitalizations, an additional benefit would be a noticeable reduction in AOM incidence. While the predictions made by the model were based on informed reasoning, all of its projected estimations remain approximations that are dependent on the inputs used to configure it, a limitation that is common to all simulation models.

The cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination: Comparative analyses for five European countries and transferability in Europe

Cost-effectiveness analyses are usually not directly comparable between countries because of differences in analytical and modelling assumptions. We investigated the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in five European Union countries (Belgium, England and Wales, Finland, France and the Netherlands) using a single model, burden of disease estimates supplied by national public health agencies and a subset of common assumptions. Under base case assumptions (vaccination with Rotarix, 3% discount rate, health care provider perspective, no herd immunity and quality of life of one caregiver affected by a rotavirus episode) and a cost-effectiveness threshold of euro30,000, vaccination is likely to be cost effective in Finland only. However, single changes to assumptions may make it cost effective in Belgium and the Netherlands. The estimated threshold price per dose for Rotarix (excluding administration costs) to be cost effective was euro41 in Belgium, euro28 in England and Wales, euro51 in Finland, euro36 in France and euro46 in the Netherlands.

Incorporating herd immunity effects into cohort models of vaccine cost-effectiveness

BACKGROUND

Cohort models are often used in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of vaccination. However, because they cannot capture herd immunity effects, cohort models underestimate the reduction in incidence caused by vaccination. Dynamic models capture herd immunity effects but are often not adopted in vaccine CEA.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to develop a pseudo-dynamic approximation that can be incorporated into an existing cohort model to capture herd immunity effects.

METHODS

The authors approximated changing force of infection due to universal vaccination for a pediatric infectious disease. The projected lifetime cases in a cohort were compared under 1) a cohort model, 2) a cohort model with pseudo-dynamic approximation, and 3) an age-structured susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental (dynamic) model. The authors extended the methodology to sexually transmitted infections.

RESULTS

For average to high values of vaccine coverage (P > 60%) and small to average values of the basic reproduction number (R(0) < 10), which describes school-based vaccination programs for many common infections, the pseudo-dynamic approximation significantly improved projected lifetime cases and was close to projections of the full dynamic model. For large values of R(0) (R(0) > 15), projected lifetime cases were similar under the dynamic model and the cohort model, both with and without pseudo-dynamic approximation. The approximation captures changes in the mean age at infection in the 1st vaccinated cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

This methodology allows for preliminary assessment of herd immunity effects on CEA of universal vaccination for pediatric infectious diseases. The method requires simple adjustments to an existing cohort model and less data than a full dynamic model.

WHO Guide for standardisation of economic evaluations of immunization programmes

Traditional EPI vaccines are considered to be among the most efficient uses of scarce health care resources. Today, there are many under-used and new vaccines available. In the short- to medium-term, these vaccines will not cost the few cents per dose the traditional vaccines do, but will be 'multi-dollar' vaccines. Decision-makers will need information, among other things, on their relative cost-effectiveness. A number of reviews have indicated that there is scope for improving the transparency, completeness and comparability of economic evaluations of vaccination programmes. Thus, there is a need to improve the quality of economic evaluations of vaccination programmes. Adherence to general guidelines would increase the quality, interpretability and transferability of future analyses. However, there is reason to believe that there might also be a need for more specific advice for vaccination programmes. For example, there are inconsistencies in the methods used to estimate the future benefits of vaccination programmes and the relative efficiency of these programmes can be sensitive to some of the more controversial aspects of general guidelines, such as the inclusion of indirect costs and the discounting of health outcomes. This guide has been developed in order to meet the needs of decision-makers for relevant, reliable and consistent economic information. They aim to provide clear and concise, practical and high quality guidance for those who conduct economic evaluations.

Medical societies' recommendations for immunization with Human Papillomavirus vaccine and disclosure of conflicts of interests

OBJECTIVE

To review the recommendations on Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination issued by different medical societies, as well as disclosures of any conflict of interests regarding such recommendations.

METHODS

The search for recommendations was mainly conducted through the Internet, together with a bibliography search on Pubmed (November 2008). The countries were selected to encompass a broad range of healthcare systems and income levels.

RESULTS

In all, 18 documents were identified: 4 from the U.S., 5 from Canada, and 1 from France (all 10 in favor of recommending vaccination), 5 from Spain (3 in favor of vaccination and 2 recommending no vaccination until further evidence of the vaccine effectiveness to prevent cervical cancer becomes available), 2 from Argentina (one in favor of vaccination and another pointing to the missing information on the vaccine's cost-effectiveness), and 1 from Chile (recommending no vaccination until more information becomes available). Only two documents disclose specific conflicts of interests for authors (American Cancer Society and Chilean Working Group on HPV). One of the Canadian documents did not include any conflict of interest statement, although Merck and GSK are listed among the sponsors.

CONCLUSIONS

Disclosure of conflicts of interest in documents where medical societies issue recommendations on HPV vaccination is very unusual. However, lack of disclosure is more frequent (near twice) when recommendations are in favor of the vaccination.