Are influenza-associated morbidity and mortality estimates for those ≥ 65 in statistical databases accurate, and an appropriate test of influenza vaccine effectiveness?

Safety profile and SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections among HCWs receiving anti-SARS-CoV-2 and influenza vaccines simultaneously: an Italian observational study

In October/December 2021, World Health Organization and other international agencies recommended the offer of the third dose of anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. In this period, the routine offer of seasonal influenza vaccination was also guaranteed and simultaneous administration of the two vaccines was encouraged. This study aims to evaluate the safety profile and to estimate the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in subjects receiving the anti-SARS-CoV-2 and influenza vaccines simultaneously. The study population was represented by healthcare workers (HCWs) of Bari Policlinico General Hospital who received the influenza (Flucelvax Tetra®) and/or anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination (BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty®) either in coadministration or separately in October 2021. Reports of adverse events following immunization (AEFIs) were investigated to study the safety of both vaccines in coadministration and in separate-instance administration. Post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection was also studied. 942 HCWs accepted to join our study. 610/942 received both vaccines simultaneously. 25.26 % subjects (238/942) were only vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, while the remaining 94 HCWs received the influenza vaccination first and subsequently received the anti-SARS-CoV2 booster dose. 717 HCWs reported AEFIs (Reporting Rate 76.1 per 100 subjects). Simultaneous administration of the two vaccines was not related with an increase of the rate of AEFIs compared to the single administration of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, but the AEFIs' rate was lower among subjects who received only influenza vaccine. Post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infections were notified for 41.5 % of enrolled subjects (391/942). Incidence of breakthrough infection and symptomatic disease was not significantly different between the simultaneous administration group and other subjects. Our data suggests that simultaneous administration of a quadrivalent influenza vaccine and an mRNA anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccine neither affected the safety of said products nor was associated with a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection.

Roles for Pathogen Interference in Influenza Vaccination, with Implications to Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) and Attribution of Influenza Deaths

Pathogen interference is the ability of one pathogen to alter the course and clinical outcomes of infection by another. With up to 3000 species of human pathogens the potential combinations are vast. These combinations operate within further immune complexity induced by infection with multiple persistent pathogens, and by the role which the human microbiome plays in maintaining health, immune function, and resistance to infection. All the above are further complicated by malnutrition in children and the elderly. Influenza vaccination offers a measure of protection for elderly individuals subsequently infected with influenza. However, all vaccines induce both specific and non-specific effects. The specific effects involve stimulation of humoral and cellular immunity, while the nonspecific effects are far more nuanced including changes in gene expression patterns and production of small RNAs which contribute to pathogen interference. Little is known about the outcomes of vaccinated elderly not subsequently infected with influenza but infected with multiple other non-influenza winter pathogens. In this review we propose that in certain years the specific antigen mix in the seasonal influenza vaccine inadvertently increases the risk of infection from other non-influenza pathogens. The possibility that vaccination could upset the pathogen balance, and that the timing of vaccination relative to the pathogen balance was critical to success, was proposed in 2010 but was seemingly ignored. Persons vaccinated early in the winter are more likely to experience higher pathogen interference. Implications to the estimation of vaccine effectiveness and influenza deaths are discussed.

Trends in Excess Winter Mortality (EWM) from 1900/01 to 2019/20-Evidence for a Complex System of Multiple Long-Term Trends

Trends in excess winter mortality (EWM) were investigated from the winter of 1900/01 to 2019/20. During the 1918–1919 Spanish flu epidemic a maximum EWM of 100% was observed in both Denmark and the USA, and 131% in Sweden. During the Spanish flu epidemic in the USA 70% of excess winter deaths were coded to influenza. EWM steadily declined from the Spanish flu peak to a minimum around the 1960s to 1980s. This decline was accompanied by a shift in deaths away from the winter and spring, and the EWM calculation shifted from a maximum around April to June in the early 1900s to around March since the late 1960s. EWM has a good correlation with the number of estimated influenza deaths, but in this context influenza pandemics after the Spanish flu only had an EWM equivalent to that for seasonal influenza. This was confirmed for a large sample of world countries for the three pandemics occurring after 1960. Using data from 1980 onward the effect of influenza vaccination on EWM were examined using a large international dataset. No effect of increasing influenza vaccination could be discerned; however, there are multiple competing forces influencing EWM which will obscure any underlying trend, e.g., increasing age at death, multimorbidity, dementia, polypharmacy, diabetes, and obesity—all of which either interfere with vaccine effectiveness or are risk factors for influenza death. After adjusting the trend in EWM in the USA influenza vaccination can be seen to be masking higher winter deaths among a high morbidity US population. Adjusting for the effect of increasing obesity counteracted some of the observed increase in EWM seen in the USA. Winter deaths are clearly the outcome of a complex system of competing long-term trends.

Insights into the protective effects of influenza vaccination: More hospitalizations but lower follow-up mortality during the 2014/15 influenza season in a Swiss cohort

BACKGROUND

Observational studies of influenza vaccination are criticized as flawed due to unmeasured confounding. The goal of this cohort study was to explore the value and role of secondary claims data to inform the effectiveness of influenza vaccination, while systematically trying to reduce potential bias.

METHODS

We iteratively reviewed the components of the PICO approach to refine study design. We analyzed Swiss mandatory health insurance claims of adult patients with chronic diseases, for whom influenza vaccination was recommended in 2014. Analyzed outcomes were all-cause mortality, hospitalization with a respiratory infection or its potential complication, and all-cause mortality after such hospitalization, adjusting for clinical and health care use variables. Cox and multi-state models were applied for time-to-event analysis.

RESULTS

Of 343,505 included persons, 22.4% were vaccinated. Vaccinated patients were on average older, had more morbidities, higher health care expenditures, and had been more frequently hospitalized. In non-adjusted models, vaccination was associated with increased risk of events. Adding covariates decreased the hazard ratio (HR) both for mortality and hospitalizations. In the full model, the HR [95% confidence interval] for mortality during season was 0.82 [0.77-0.88], and closer to null effect after season. In contrast, HR for hospitalizations was increased during season to 1.28 [1.15-1.42], with estimates closer to null effect after season. HR in multi-state models were similar to those in the single-outcome models, with HR of mortality after hospitalization negative both during and after season.

CONCLUSION

In patients with chronic diseases, influenza vaccination was associated with more frequent specific hospitalizations, but decreased risk of mortality overall and after such hospitalization. Our approach of iteratively considering PICO elements helped to consider various sources of bias in the study sequentially. The selection of appropriate, specific outcomes makes the link between intervention and outcome more plausible and can reduce the impact of confounding.

Impact of national influenza vaccination strategy in severe influenza outcomes among the high-risk Portuguese population

BACKGROUND

All aged individuals with a chronic condition and those with 65 and more years are at increased risk of severe influenza post-infection complications. There is limited research on cases averted by the yearly vaccination programs in high-risk individuals. The objective was to estimate the impact of trivalent seasonal influenza vaccination on averted hospitalizations and death among the high-risk population in Portugal.

METHODS

The impact of trivalent seasonal influenza vaccination was estimated using vaccine coverage, vaccine effectiveness and the number of influenza-related hospitalizations and deaths. The number of averted events (NAE), prevented fraction (PF) and number needed to vaccinate (NVN) were estimated for seasons 2014/15 to 2016/17.

RESULTS

The vaccination strategy averted on average approximately 1833 hospitalizations and 383 deaths per season. Highest NAE was observed in the ≥65 years population (85% of hospitalizations and 95% deaths) and in the 2016/17 season (1957 hospitalizations and 439 deaths). On average, seasonal vaccination prevented 21% of hospitalizations in the population aged 65 and more, and 18.5% in the population with chronic conditions. The vaccination also prevented 29% and 19.5% of deaths in each group of the high-risk population. It would be needed to vaccinate 3360 high-risk individuals, to prevent one hospitalization and 60,471 high-risk individuals to prevent one death.

CONCLUSION

The yearly influenza vaccination campaigns had a sustained positive benefit for the high-risk population, reducing hospitalizations and deaths. These results can support public health plans toward increased vaccine coverage in high-risk groups.

Influenza vaccination in the elderly: 25 years follow-up of a randomized controlled trial. No impact on long-term mortality

Influenza vaccination is proven effective in preventing influenza. However, long-term effects on mortality have never been supported by direct evidence. In this study we assessed the long-term outcome of influenza vaccination on mortality in the elderly by conducting a 25-year follow-up study of a RCT on the efficacy of influenza vaccination as baseline. The RCT had been conducted in the Netherlands 5 years before vaccination was recommended for those aged >65 and 17 years before recommending it for those aged >60. The RCT included 1838 community-dwelling elderly aged ≥ 60 that had received an intramuscular injection with the inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine (n = 927) or placebo (n = 911) during the 1991/1992 winter. In our follow-up study, outcomes included all-cause mortality, influenza-related mortality and seasonal mortality. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated by Cox regression and sub-hazard ratios (SHRs) by competing risk models. Secondary analyses included subgroup analyses by age and disease status. The vital status up to January 1, 2017 was provided in 1800/1838 (98%) of the cases. Single influenza vaccination did not reduce all-cause mortality when compared to placebo (adjusted HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.85−1.05). Also, no differences between vaccination and placebo group were shown for underlying causes of death or seasonal mortality. In those aged 60–64, median survival increased with 20.1 months (95% CI 2.4–37.9), although no effects on all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.72−1.03) could be demonstrated in survival analysis. In conclusion, this study did not demonstrate a statistically significant effect following single influenza vaccination on long-term mortality in community-dwelling elderly in general. We propose researchers designing future studies on influenza vaccination in the elderly to fit these studies for longer-term follow-up, and suggest age-group comparisons in observational research.

Clinical trial registry number:NTR6179.

Adult Immunization - Need of the Hour

Immunization is the process of making individuals immune. Childhood immunization is a common process for various aliments, but adult immunization in the Indian scenario is obscure. Officially, India has been declared polio-free, which is an achievement despite cultural, political, economic, geographic, and so many other factors. The changing demographics of adult, geriatric population and growing cost of health-care maintenance are a concern in developing countries like India. Thus, promoting healthy lifestyle needs prevention, early detection, and management of various diseases and disorders. Certainly, prevention in adults is yet to be tapped completely, so that goal of 100% prevention can be achieved. Various fraternities of medical association have come up with guidelines for adult immunization schedules in India. The present paper reviews infectious diseases such as anthrax, chikungunya, cholera, dengue, influenza, and malaria in this section of the review. We humbly request all health-care professionals and educators to educate the mass for adult immunization. So that, cost involved for treatment and workforce for the management of diseases can be better utilized in some other needed areas.

Influenza vaccination in the elderly: Is a trial on mortality ethically acceptable?

The effectiveness of influenza vaccination in the elderly has long been a topic of debate, fueled by the absence of direct evidence from randomized trials on its effect on mortality and the methodological limitations of observational studies pointing this direction. It is argued that new placebo-controlled trials should be undertaken to resolve this uncertainty. However, such trials may be ethically questionable. To bring this discussion forward, we provide a comprehensive overview of the ethical challenges of an influenza vaccine efficacy trial designed to evaluate mortality in the elderly. An important condition in the justification of a trial is the existence of genuine uncertainty in regard to the answer to a research question. Therefore an extensive analysis of the existing levels of knowledge is needed to support the conclusion that an effect of vaccination on mortality is uncertain. Even if a so called "clinical equipoise" status applies, denying a control group vaccination would be problematic because vaccination is considered "competent care" and withholding vaccination could substantially increase patients' risk for influenza and its complications. Given the high burden of disease and already proven benefits of vaccination, such a trial is unlikely to meet the Declaration of Helsinki stating that the importance of a trial must outweigh the risk patients are exposed to. While a placebo-controlled trial in vaccine refusers may be considered, such a trial is unlikely to meet substantial methodological barriers regarding trial size and generalizability. We conclude that a new trial is unlikely to provide for a direct answer, let alone change current policy. At the same time, given the lack of consensus on the ethical acceptability of a placebo-controlled trial on the effect of influenza vaccination on mortality in the elderly, we invite researchers considering such trials to address the ethical challenges discussed in this manuscript.

Influenza in long-term care facilities

Long-term care facility environments and the vulnerability of their residents provide a setting conducive to the rapid spread of influenza virus and other respiratory pathogens. Infections may be introduced by staff, visitors or new or transferred residents, and outbreaks of influenza in such settings can have devastating consequences for individuals, as well as placing extra strain on health services. As the population ages over the coming decades, increased provision of such facilities seems likely. The need for robust infection prevention and control practices will therefore remain of paramount importance if the impact of outbreaks is to be minimised. In this review, we discuss the nature of the problem of influenza in long-term care facilities, and approaches to preventive and control measures, including vaccination of residents and staff, and the use of antiviral drugs for treatment and prophylaxis, based on currently available evidence.

Influenza Neuraminidase Inhibitors: Synthetic Approaches, Derivatives and Biological Activity

Despite being a common viral disease, influenza has very negative consequences, causing the death of around half a million people each year. A neuraminidase located on the surface of the virus plays an important role in viral reproduction by contributing to the release of viruses from infected host cells. The treatment of influenza is mainly based on the administration of neuraminidase inhibitors. The neuraminidase inhibitors zanamivir, laninamivir, oseltamivir and peramivir have been commercialized and have been demonstrated to be potent influenza viral neuraminidase inhibitors against most influenza strains. In order to create more potent neuraminidase inhibitors and fight against the surge in resistance resulting from naturally-occurring mutations, these anti-influenza drugs have been used as templates for the development of new neuraminidase inhibitors through structure-activity relationship studies. Here, we review the synthetic routes to these commercial drugs, the modifications which have been performed on these structures and the effects of these modifications on their inhibitory activity.

Influenza vaccination for healthcare workers who care for people aged 60 or older living in long-term care institutions

BACKGROUND

A systematic review found that 3% of working adults who had received influenza vaccine and 5% of those who were unvaccinated had laboratory-proven influenza per season; in healthcare workers (HCWs) these percentages were 5% and 8% respectively. Healthcare workers may transmit influenza to patients.

OBJECTIVES

To identify all randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs assessing the effects of vaccinating healthcare workers on the incidence of laboratory-proven influenza, pneumonia, death from pneumonia and admission to hospital for respiratory illness in those aged 60 years or older resident in long-term care institutions (LTCIs).

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL (2015, Issue 9), MEDLINE (1966 to October week 3, 2015), EMBASE (1974 to October 2015) and Web of Science (2006 to October 2015), but Biological Abstracts only from 1969 to March 2013 and Science Citation Index-Expanded from 1974 to March 2013 due to lack of institutional access in 2015.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs of influenza vaccination of healthcare workers caring for individuals aged 60 years or older in LTCIs and the incidence of laboratory-proven influenza and its complications (lower respiratory tract infection, or hospitalisation or death due to lower respiratory tract infection) in individuals aged 60 years or older in LTCIs.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias. Effects on dichotomous outcomes were measured as risk differences (RDs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We assessed the quality of evidence with GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified four cluster-RCTs and one cohort study (n = 12,742) of influenza vaccination for HCWs caring for individuals ≥ 60 years in LTCIs. Four cluster RCTs (5896 residents) provided outcome data that addressed the objectives of our review. The studies were comparable in their study populations, intervention and outcome measures. The studies did not report adverse events. The principal sources of bias in the studies related to attrition, lack of blinding, contamination in the control groups and low rates of vaccination coverage in the intervention arms, leading us to downgrade the quality of evidence for all outcomes due to serious risk of bias.Offering influenza vaccination to HCWs based in long term care homes may have little or no effect on the number of residents who develop laboratory-proven influenza compared with those living in care homes where no vaccination is offered (RD 0 (95% CI -0.03 to 0.03), two studies with samples taken from 752 participants; low quality evidence). HCW vaccination probably leads to a reduction in lower respiratory tract infection in residents from 6% to 4% (RD -0.02 (95% CI -0.04 to 0.01), one study of 3400 people; moderate quality evidence). HCW vaccination programmes may have little or no effect on the number of residents admitted to hospital for respiratory illness (RD 0 (95% CI -0.02 to 0.02, one study of 1059 people; low quality evidence). We decided not to combine data on deaths from lower respiratory tract infection (two studies of 4459 people) or all cause deaths (four studies of 8468 people). The direction and size of difference in risk varied between the studies. We are uncertain as to the effect of vaccination on these outcomes due to the very low quality of evidence. Adjusted analyses, which took into account the cluster design, did not differ substantively from the pooled analysis with unadjusted data.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Our review findings have not identified conclusive evidence of benefit of HCW vaccination programmes on specific outcomes of laboratory-proven influenza, its complications (lower respiratory tract infection, hospitalisation or death due to lower respiratory tract illness), or all cause mortality in people over the age of 60 who live in care institutions. This review did not find information on co-interventions with healthcare worker vaccination: hand-washing, face masks, early detection of laboratory-proven influenza, quarantine, avoiding admissions, antivirals and asking healthcare workers with influenza or influenza-like illness (ILI) not to work. This review does not provide reasonable evidence to support the vaccination of healthcare workers to prevent influenza in those aged 60 years or older resident in LTCIs. High quality RCTs are required to avoid the risks of bias in methodology and conduct identified by this review and to test further these interventions in combination.

The Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccination in Different Groups

Annual administration of the seasonal influenza vaccine, especially to persons known to be at elevated risk for developing serious complications, is the focus of current efforts to reduce the impact of influenza. The main factors influencing estimated inactivated influenza vaccine efficacy and effectiveness, the results obtained in different population groups, current vaccination strategies and the possible advantages of new vaccines are discussed. The available evidence suggests that influenza vaccines are less effective in the elderly than in young adults, but vaccination is encouraged by public health institutions due to higher mortality and complications. There is no consensus on universal vaccination of children yet economic studies suggest that yearly paediatric vaccination is cost saving. The benefits of herd immunity generated by paediatric vaccination require further study. Newer vaccines should be more and more-broadly protective, stable, easy to manufacture and administer and highly immunogenic across all population groups.

Factors Associated with Influenza Vaccination of Hospitalized Elderly Patients in Spain

Vaccination of the elderly is an important factor in limiting the impact of influenza in the community. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors associated with influenza vaccination coverage in hospitalized patients aged ≥ 65 years hospitalized due to causes unrelated to influenza in Spain. We carried out a cross-sectional study. Bivariate analysis was performed comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated patients, taking in to account sociodemographic variables and medical risk conditions. Multivariate analysis was performed using multilevel regression models. We included 1038 patients: 602 (58%) had received the influenza vaccine in the 2013-14 season. Three or more general practitioner visits (OR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.19-2.18); influenza vaccination in any of the 3 previous seasons (OR = 13.57; 95% CI 9.45-19.48); and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination (OR = 1.97; 95% CI 1.38-2.80) were associated with receiving the influenza vaccine. Vaccination coverage of hospitalized elderly people is low in Spain and some predisposing characteristics influence vaccination coverage. Healthcare workers should take these characteristics into account and be encouraged to proactively propose influenza vaccination to all patients aged ≥ 65 years.