Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children morbidity and mortality in Peru: Time series analyses

Implementation challenges and real-world impacts of switching pediatric vaccines: A global systematic literature review

Switching a vaccine for another on a pediatric national immunization program is often done for the betterment of society. However, if poorly implemented, switching vaccines could result in suboptimal transitions with negative effects. A systematic review was conducted to evaluate the existing knowledge from identifiable documents on implementation challenges of pediatric vaccine switches and the real-world impact of those challenges. Thirty-three studies met the inclusion criteria. We synthesized three themes: vaccine availability, vaccination program deployment, and vaccine acceptability. Switching pediatric vaccines can pose unforeseen challenges to health-care systems worldwide and additional resources are often required to overcome those challenges. Yet, the magnitude of the impact, especially economic and societal, was frequently under-researched with variability in reporting. Therefore, an efficient vaccine switch requires a thorough consideration of the added benefits of replacing the existing vaccine, preparation, planning, additional resource allocation, implementation timing, public-private partnerships, outreach campaigns, and surveillance for program evaluation.

Estimating mortality and disability in Peru before the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of the Disease Study 2019

Background

Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru's healthcare system performance.

Methods

Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. We report demographic and epidemiologic trends in terms of population, life expectancy at birth (LE), mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the major diseases and risk factors in Peru. Finally, we compared Peru with 16 countries in the Latin American (LA) region.

Results

The Peruvian population reached 33.9 million inhabitants (49.9% women) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, LE at birth increased from 69.2 (95% uncertainty interval 67.8-70.3) to 80.3 (77.2-83.2) years. This increase was driven by the decline in under-5 mortality (-80.7%) and mortality from infectious diseases in older age groups (+60 years old). The number of DALYs in 1990 was 9.2 million (8.5-10.1) and reached 7.5 million (6.1-9.0) in 2019. The proportion of DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increased from 38.2% in 1990 to 67.9% in 2019. The all-ages and age-standardized DALYs rates and YLLs rates decreased, but YLDs rates remained constant. In 2019, the leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and low back pain. The leading risk factors associated with DALYs in 2019 were undernutrition, high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and air pollution. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Peru experienced one of the highest LRIs-DALYs rates in the LA region.

Conclusion

In the last three decades, Peru experienced significant improvements in LE and child survival and an increase in the burden of NCDs and associated disability. The Peruvian healthcare system must be redesigned to respond to this epidemiological transition. The new design should aim to reduce premature deaths and maintain healthy longevity, focusing on effective coverage and treatment of NCDs and reducing and managing the related disability.

Reductions in Childhood Pneumonia Mortality After Vaccination in the United States

BACKGROUND

We aim to estimate the magnitude of the reduction in pneumococcal pneumonia and meningitis mortality after the mass introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV)7 and PCV13 in children in the United States.

METHODS

We assessed the trends in mortality rates from pneumococcal pneumonia and meningitis, in the United States between 1994 and 2017. We fitted an interrupted time-series negative binomial regression model (adjusted by trend, seasonality, PCV7/PCV13 coverage, and H. influenzae type b vaccine coverage) to estimate the counterfactual rates without vaccination. We reported a percent reduction in mortality estimates relative to the projected no-vaccination scenario, using the formula 1 minus the incidence risk ratio, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Between 1994 and 1999 (the prevaccination period), the all-cause pneumonia mortality rate for 0-1-month-old children was 2.55 per 100,00 pop., whereas for 2-11 months-old children, this rate was 0.82 deaths per 100,000 pop. During the PCV7-period in 0-59-month-old children in the United States, the adjusted reduction of all-cause pneumonia was 13% (95% CI: 4-21) and 19% (95% CI: 0-33) of all-cause meningitis For PCV13, the reductions in this age group were 21% (95% CI: 4-35) for all-cause pneumonia mortality and 22% (95% CI: -19 to 48) for all-cause meningitis mortality. PCV13 had greater reductions of all-cause pneumonia than PCV13 in 6-11-month-old infants.

CONCLUSIONS

The universal introduction of PCV7, and later PCV13, for children 0-59 months old in the United States was associated with decreases in mortality due to all-cause pneumonia.

Effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on radiological primary end-point pneumonia among cases of severe community acquired pneumonia in children: A prospective multi-site hospital-based test-negative study in Northern India

INTRODUCTION

Community acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading cause of under-five mortality in India and Streptococcus pneumoniae is the main bacterial pathogen for it. Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine 13 (PCV13) has been introduced in a phased manner, in the national immunization program of India since 2017/2018. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of PCV13 on chest radiograph (CXR)-confirmed pneumonia, in children hospitalized with WHO-defined severe CAP.

METHODS

This prospective, multi-site test-negative study was conducted in a hospital-network situated in three districts of Northern India where PCV13 had been introduced. Children aged 2-23 months, hospitalized with severe CAP and with interpretable CXR were included after parental consent. Clinical data was extracted from hospital records. CXRs were interpreted by a panel of three independent blinded trained radiologists. Exposure to PCV13 was defined as ≥2 doses of PCV13 in children aged ≤ 12 months and ≥ 1 dose(s) in children > 12 months of age. Our outcome measures were CXR finding of primary endpoint pneumonia with or without other infiltrates (PEP±OI); vaccine effectiveness (VE) and hospital mortality.

RESULTS

From 1st June 2017-30th April 2021, among 2711 children included, 678 (25.0%) were exposed to PCV1. CXR positive for PEP±OI on CXR was found in 579 (21.4%), of which 103 (17.8%) were exposed to PCV. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for PEP±OI among the exposed group was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.54-0.89, p = 0.004). Adjusted VE was 31.0% (95% CI: 11.0-44.0) for PEP±OI. AOR for hospital mortality with PEP±OI was 2.65 (95% CI: 1.27-5.53, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

In severe CAP, children exposed to PCV13 had significantly reduced odds of having PEP±OI. Since PEP±OI had increased odds of hospital mortality due to CAP, countrywide coverage with PCV13 is an essential priority.

Recurrent Acute Otitis Media Environmental Risk Factors: A Literature Review from the Microbiota Point of View

Acute otitis media (AOM) constitutes a multifactorial disease, as several host and environmental factors contribute to its occurrence. Prevention of AOM represents one of the most important goals in pediatrics, both in developing countries, in which complications, mortality, and deafness remain possible consequences of the disease, compared to in developed countries, in which this condition has an important burden in terms of medical, social, and economical implications. The strategies for AOM prevention are based on reducing the burden of risk factors, through the application of behavioral, environmental, and therapeutic interventions. The introduction of culture-independent techniques has allowed high-throughput investigation of entire bacterial communities, providing novel insights into the pathogenesis of middle ear diseases through the identification of potential protective bacteria. The upper respiratory tract (URT) is a pivotal region in AOM pathogenesis, as it could act as a source of pathogens than of protective microorganisms for the middle ear (ME). Due to its direct connection with the external ambient, the URT is particularly exposed to the influence of environmental agents. The aim of this review was to evaluate AOM environmental risk factors and their impact on URT microbial communities, and to investigate AOM pathogenesis from the microbiota perspective.

Effectiveness of Pneumococcal Vaccines on Otitis Media in Children: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to determine the effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccines on otitis media (OM) and acute otitis media (AOM) in children.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search in databases PubMed (MEDLINE), Embase, Lilacs, and Web of Science. We included observational studies that evaluated any pneumococcal vaccine - including 7, 10, and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV7, PCV10, and PCV13) and 23-valent polysaccharide vaccines (PPSV23) as the intervention, in children aged less than five years.

RESULTS

Out of the 2112 screened studies, 48 observational studies complied with the eligibility criteria and therefore were included in this review. Of the included studies, 30 (63%) were before-after, eleven (23%) cohort, six (13%) time series, and one (2%) case-control study designs. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing OM or AOM varied by vaccine type. In children under 24 months VE ranged from 8% and 42.7% (PCV7), 5.6% to 84% (PCV10) and 2.2% to 68% (PCV13). In children aged less than 60 months, VE ranged between 13.2% and 39% for PCV7, 11% to 39% for PCV10 (only children under 48 months), and 39% to 41% (PCV13).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate significant effect of pneumococcal vaccination in decreasing OM or AOM in children under five years old in several countries supporting the public health value of introducing PCVs in national immunization programs.

Systematic review of the efficacy, effectiveness and impact of high-valency pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on otitis media

Otitis media (OM) is a common disease of childhood and available pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), with different compositions, could have different impact on OM reduction. This systematic literature review evaluated available data describing the efficacy, effectiveness, and impact of 10-valent pneumococcal Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) and 13-valent PCV (PCV13) on OM outcomes. Statistically significant reductions in all-cause and complicated OM, tympanostomy tube placement and OM-related hospitalizations were consistently observed after the introduction of PHiD-CV and PCV13. Impact studies with data in children <2 years of age using PCV13 report 47–51% and PHiD-CV 34–43% reduction of all-cause OM (primary care, outpatient, ambulatory, emergency department visits) compared to periods before PCV introduction. When the impact of both vaccines is assessed in comparable settings, some studies suggest PHiD-CV may offer better protection against some OM outcomes. Well-designed, head-to-head comparisons are needed to better understand the differences and guide vaccination policies.

What is the context?

Pneumococcal vaccines are highly effective in preventing pneumonia and meningitis in children. The two main pneumococcal vaccines are PHiD-CV (Synflorix, GSK) and PCV13 (Prevenar 13, Pfizer). Both vaccines have been shown to provide protection against otitis media despite differing in their composition.

However, it is currently unknown if both vaccines confer similar level of protection against otitis media.

What is new?

We conducted a literature review to evaluate the effects of PHiD-CV and PCV13 on otitis media.

From 33 articles, we found that:

‡Both vaccines were effective in reducing doctor visits for otitis media as well as the number of severe cases and cases requiring hospitalization.

‡Four studies suggested a higher level of protection provided by PHiD-CV compared to PCV13, although more data is needed to confirm this finding.

What is the impact?

Available information shows that PHiD-CV and PCV13 are effective in preventing a proportion of otitis media during childhood.

Given the remaining substantial burden associated with the disease and the related significant usage of antibiotics, the development of improved vaccines with higher impact on otitis media would be welcome.

Impact of 7-valent versus 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on primary care consultations across various age groups in the Netherlands, 5 years after the switch: A time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

In 2011, 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) replaced PCV7 in The Netherlands. We aimed to assess the impact of this switch on non-invasive pneumococcal disease in primary care across various age-groups, including pneumonia-bronchitis, otitis media (OM) and sinusitis with and without considering pre-PCV10 secular trends.

METHODS

Electronic records of 397,441 individuals included in a regional primary care database from July 2006 to June 2016 were extracted (2,408,762 person-years). We fitted interrupted time-series on annual incidence rates (IR) of primary care diagnosed pneumonia-bronchitis, OM and sinusitis episodes per age-group. We performed these two types of analyses, comparing; 1) the post-PCV10 observed versus expected trend if PCV10 had not been implemented and pre-PCV10 secular trends had continued 2), the pre- versus post-PCV10 observed, model fitted trend. The latter assumes no secular trend. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated using both methods.

RESULTS

We found significant reductions following PCV10 introduction with both analysis methods for pneumonia-bronchitis in the pediatric and adult age-groups, for sinusitis in the age-group 20-50 years and for OM, the effect across various age-groups are uncertain given contradictory results. For other outcomes and age-groups, the effect estimates were not consistent across the two-method used and heavily depended on the strength of the underlying trend. No consistent effects were observed in the elderly population, considering the two methods used.

CONCLUSION

Our study supports some direct and indirect-effect of PCV10 introduction on non-IPD, mainly on pneumonia-bronchitis, but estimates heavily depend on the method of analysis used. Estimates from the two different approaches may differ substantially if underlying trends are strong.

Incidence and Mortality Trends of Acute Gastroenteritis and Pneumococcal Disease in Children Following Universal Rotavirus and Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination in Ecuador

INTRODUCTION

Ecuador introduced routine infant rotavirus (RV) vaccination in 2008 and pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV) in 2011 to manage disease and mortality in children caused by gastroenteritis (GE) and by pneumonia (PNE) and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), respectively.

METHODS

This retrospective ecological database study described vaccination coverage as well as the trends in incidence and mortality in the pre- versus post-vaccination periods and used time-trend analysis models to assess the impact of vaccination.

RESULTS

RV vaccination coverage of the second dose was between 79-97% from 2008 to 2016. GE incidence and mortality showed a declining trend before vaccination which continued in the post-vaccination period. The model estimated a statistically significant decrease of 72.4% for GE mortality and 51.2% for GE incidence in the post-vaccination period. PCV vaccination coverage remained above 80% (second dose) and 40% (third dose) after 2011. PNE mortality showed a declining trend before vaccination and a continued decline after vaccination, while PNE incidence was more variable (sharp increase from 2005-2009 then decrease and eventual stabilisation). The model estimated a statistically significant decline of 41.1% for PNE mortality and a stable PNE incidence in the post- versus pre-vaccination period. IPD incidence and mortality yearly data showed large variability by year and low numbers, making it difficult to discern a trend. The model estimated a statistically significant reduction of 51.1% for IPD mortality and 31.5% for IPD incidence in the post- versus pre-vaccination period.

CONCLUSION

After the first 9 years of routine RV vaccination and 6 years of routine PCV vaccination in Ecuador, significant decreases in incidence and mortality in children < 5 years of age due to GE and pneumococcal disease have been observed.

Acute Gastroenteritis Morbidity and Mortality Trends Following Universal Rotavirus Vaccination in Children in Peru: Ecological Database Study with Time-Trend Analysis

Introduction

Rotavirus (RV) infection is the leading cause of severe diarrhea in children worldwide. It is responsible for around 25% of gastroenteritis (GE) cases, 33% of hospitalized GE cases, and an annual mortality rate of 113.4/100,000 in children < 5 years of age in Peru. RV infant vaccination is recommended by the World Health Organization and provides the best public health strategy to manage the disease. Universal RV vaccination was introduced in Peru in 2009.

Methods

Trends in GE ambulatory visits, hospitalizations, and deaths in children < 5 years of age are described in the pre-vaccination (2004–2008) versus post-vaccination (2010–2018) periods. Time-trend analysis was performed (using generalized linear regression models) to assess the impact of vaccination nationwide and by region after adjusting for variables.

Results

Between 2009 and 2011, vaccination coverage increased to over 80% in Peru. In infants < 1 year of age, GE ambulatory cases, hospitalizations, and deaths decreased in the post-vaccination period by 40.3%, 46.2%, and 55.5%, respectively (and in children < 5 years of age, by 34.4%, 41.9%, and 54.3%, respectively) compared with the pre-vaccination period. Results of the multivariate time-trend analysis also found significant decreases in the post-vaccination period of 10.7% (GE ambulatory cases), 17.2% (GE hospitalizations), and 37.3% (GE mortality) in children < 5 years of age. Data analyzed by region varied, with Costa and Sierra regions generally in line with the national findings; however, some findings were less robust for Selva due to fewer available data.

Conclusion

After 9 years of RV vaccination in Peru, there appears to be a statistically significant positive impact of vaccination, in terms of reducing GE-related mortality, hospitalizations, and ambulatory visits in infants and young children. For policymakers to understand regional differences and future vaccination needs, continued improvement in surveillance is needed.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40121-021-00532-5.

Declines in Pneumonia Mortality Following the Introduction of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in Latin American and Caribbean Countries

Background

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are recommended for use in pediatric immunization programs worldwide. Few data are available on their effect against mortality. We present a multicountry evaluation of the population-level impact of PCVs against death due to pneumonia in children < 5 years of age.

Methods

We obtained national-level mortality data between 2000 and 2016 from 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, using the standardized protocol. Time series models were used to evaluate the decline in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the postvaccination period while controlling for unrelated temporal trends using control causes of death.

Results

The estimated declines in pneumonia mortality following the introduction of PCVs ranged from 11% to 35% among children aged 2–59 months in 5 countries: Colombia (24% [95% credible interval {CrI}, 3%–35%]), Ecuador (25% [95% CrI, 4%–41%]), Mexico (11% [95% CrI, 3%–18%]), Nicaragua (19% [95% CrI, 0–34%]), and Peru (35% [95% CrI, 20%–47%]). In Argentina, Brazil, and the Dominican Republic, the declines were not detected in the aggregated age group but were detected in certain age strata. In Guyana and Honduras, the estimates had large uncertainty, and no declines were detected. Across the 10 countries, most of which have low to moderate incidence of pneumonia mortality, PCVs have prevented nearly 4500 all-cause pneumonia deaths in children 2–59 months since introduction.

Conclusions

Although the data quality was variable between countries, and the patterns varied across countries and age groups, the balance of evidence suggests that mortality due to all-cause pneumonia in children declined after PCV introduction. The impact could be greater in populations with a higher prevaccine burden of pneumonia.

Population impact and effectiveness of sequential 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate and monovalent rotavirus vaccine introduction on infant mortality: prospective birth cohort studies from Malawi

Background

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) and rotavirus vaccine (RV) are key tools for reducing common causes of infant mortality. However, measurement of population-level mortality impact is lacking from sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluated mortality impact and vaccine effectiveness (VE) of PCV13 introduced in November 2011, with subsequent RV1 roll-out in October 2012, in Malawi.

Methods

We conducted two independent community-based birth cohort studies. Study 1, in northern Malawi (40000population), evaluated population impact using change-point analysis and negative-binomial regression of non-traumatic 14–51-week infant mortality preintroduction (1 January 2004 to 31 September 2011) and postintroduction (1 October 2011 to 1 July 2019), and against three-dose coverage. Study 2, in central Malawi (465 000 population), was recruited from 24 November 2011 to 1 June 2015. In the absence of preintroduction data, individual three-dose versus zero-dose VE was estimated using individual-level Cox survival models. In both cohorts, infants were followed with household visits to ascertain vaccination, socioeconomic and survival status. Verbal autopsies were conducted for deaths.

Results

Study 1 included 20 291 live births and 216 infant deaths. Mortality decreased by 28.6% (95% CI: 15.3 to 39.8) post-PCV13 introduction. A change point was identified in November 2012. Study 2 registered 50 731 live births, with 454 deaths. Infant mortality decreased from 17 to 10/1000 live births during the study period. Adjusted VE was 44.6% overall (95% CI: 23.0 to 59.1) and 48.3% (95% CI: −5.9 to 74.1) against combined acute respiratory infection, meningitis and sepsis-associated mortality.

Conclusion

These data provide population-level evidence of infant mortality reduction following sequential PCV13 and RV1 introduction into an established immunisation programme in Malawi. These data support increasing coverage of vaccine programmes in high-burden settings.

The impact of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine upon hospitalization rate of children with pneumonia in different Brazilian administrative regions

BACKGROUND

Streptococcus pneumoniae is the most frequent bacterial causative agent of pneumonia. Due to its significant contribution to the morbidity and mortality profile and the country's economy, the 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in Brazil in 2010. Brazil is divided into five administrative regions which differ in social-economic indices among each other. Estimates of PCV10 impact on hospitalization rates due to pneumonia stratified by distinct Brazilian regions are limited. We assessed this issue.

METHODS

This is a population-based ecological investigation. Data about hospitalizations due to pneumonia, asthma or urinary tract infection (UTI) among patients aged under 20 years in the pre-exposure (2003-2009) and in the post-exposure (2011-2017) periods were retrieved from the National Health System - Hospital Information System (SIH-SUS) database. The total resident population by age group in each year was retrieved from the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics database. Hospitalization rates were estimated for each Brazilian region and the rates obtained in the pre-exposure and in the post-exposure periods were compared by Prais-Winsten regression. The Human Development Index (HDI) evolved differently in the distinct regions during the study period.

RESULTS

Overall, hospitalization rates due to pneumonia declined by 34.5%. Similar trends were observed for hospitalization rates due to asthma and UTI. The same pattern was observed in each Brazilian region. However, the North region was the only one that presented an exponential incidence decline pattern, which could be explained by PCV10 implementation (declined by 10.8% in the quadratic regression, p < 0.01). Only in the North region, significant decline was observed among patients aged 0-4 years (-12.5%; p = 0.01), 5-9 years (-38.5%; p < 0.01) or 10-14 years (-10.7%; p = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

Significant variation in the downward trend of hospitalization rate was only found in the North region, which evolved from very low HDI in 2003; medium HDI in 2010 to high HDI in 2017.

Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumonia hospitalization and mortality in children and elderly in Ecuador: Time series analyses

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) reduce the burden of invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia hospitalizations. However, there is limited evidence of the effect of PCVs on pneumonia mortality in children. It is anticipated that indirect effects resulting from PCV use among children might further reduce the remaining burden of adult pneumococcal disease caused by pneumococcal serotypes contained in PCV. Whether this will result in reduced pneumonia mortality in children and adults is still not known.

METHODS

We investigated the impact of PCV on pneumonia hospitalization and mortality in in Ecuador, where PCV was introduced in 2010, considering national data from secondary data sources from 2005 to 2015. Time series analysis using regression models were used to evaluate the decline in the number of all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations and deaths in the period post-PCV introduction. The target populations were children under 5 years and adults aged 50 years and over. Outcomes of interest were hospitalizations and mortality in which the main cause of hospital admission and death, respectively, were coded as ICD10 codes J12-18 (pneumonia). Three different models were fitted.

RESULTS

We demonstrate a sizeable impact of PCV in pneumonia hospitalization in children < 1 year (27% reduction, 95%CI 12-42%), and < 5 years of age (33% reduction, 95%CI 11-43%). The estimated impact of PCV in pneumonia mortality was a reduction of 14% in < 1 year (95%CI 0-33%), 10% in < 5 years (95%CI 0-25%), and 22% (95%CI 7-34%) in adults aged 50-64 years. Little evidence of a change was detected in elderly ≥ 65 years.

CONCLUSION

This study is the first to report on the impact of PCV in pneumonia morbidity and mortality in children and older adults, being relevant to policy makers and global donors. Findings were consistent when using different models. Additional studies on the indirect effect of PCV in older adults are needed.

Trends in all-cause pneumonia and otitis media in children aged <2 years following pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction in Colombia

In Colombia, pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) were implemented into the infant universal mass vaccination program in a stepwise manner; PCV-7 between 2009 and 2011 in different geographic regions/cities, with nationwide introduction of a 10-valent vaccine (PHiD-CV) in 2012. We aimed to describe trends in all-cause pneumonia mortality and overall mortality, and in the incidence of all-cause pneumonia and otitis media (OM) in Colombian children <2 y (y = years) of age, before and after PCV introduction. We obtained mortality and incidence data, nationally and for five major cities (Bogota, Medellin, Barranquilla, Cali and Cartagena) from 2005–2016 and 2008–2016, respectively, comparing mortality and incidence proportions in the post-PCV introduction period with those in the pre-PCV period. Overall mean reductions in all-cause pneumonia mortality was observed in the post-PCV period nationally (48.8%; 95%CI: 45.5–51.8%) and in four cities including Bogota (77.1%; 71.1–81.8%) and Medellin (56.4%; 44.1–65.9%); no substantial reduction was observed in Cartagena. Similar findings were observed for overall mortality. Reductions in all-cause pneumonia incidence were observed in Bogota (66.0%; 65.5–66.6%), Medellin (40.6%; 39.3–41.9%) and Cartagena (15.0%; 11.2–18.6%), while incidence increased in Barranquilla (78.5%; 68.4–89.2%) and Cali (125.5%; 119.2–132.0%). All-cause OM incidence fell in Medellin and Bogota (42.1–51.1%) but increased (95.8%) in Barranquilla. In conclusion, overall reductions in disease outcomes were observed following PCV introduction in most cities and nationwide. Decreasing trends in outcomes were observed prior to PCV introduction, and limited data points and data reporting issues may have influenced our results. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02567747)

Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine uptake on childhood pneumonia mortality across income levels in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru

Background: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have prevented deaths due to pneumonia among children. The effect may differ between higher- and lower-income populations due to various factors, such as differences in the distribution of pneumococcal serotypes, healthcare access, and PCV uptake. This study aims to evaluate an association between increasing PCV coverage and population-level declines in death due to pneumonia and its variation by socioeconomic status of subnational regions.

Methods: We analyzed municipality-level mortality data from 2005 and 2015 for children aged 2-23 months in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. We fit Poisson regression models to estimate the relationship between changes in PCV uptake and deaths due to all-cause pneumonia among subnational regions with different income levels. We controlled for changes unrelated to PCV by using data on non-respiratory deaths over time.

Results: Uptake of the third dose of PCV varied across subnational regions and was higher in high-income regions. Higher uptake of PCV was associated with larger declines in pneumonia mortality. This association did not differ by income level of the region in Brazil and Colombia. In Peru, low-income regions observed larger declines in pneumonia deaths, but there was large uncertainty in the difference between the low- and high-income regions. We estimated that, with 90% coverage, there would be 4-38% declines in all-cause pneumonia mortality across income levels and countries.

Conclusions: Regions with higher PCV coverage experienced larger declines in pneumonia deaths, regardless of the income level. Having more reliable data on mortality records and vaccine uptake would improve the reliability of vaccine impact estimates.

Changes in Otitis Media Episodes and Pressure Equalization Tube Insertions Among Young Children Following Introduction of the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Birth Cohort-based Study

BACKGROUND

The impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) introduction on the occurrence of first and subsequent otitis media (OM) episodes in early childhood is unclear. We compared the risk of OM episodes among children age <2 years before and after PCV13 introduction, accounting for the dependence between OM episodes.

METHODS

We identified consecutive annual (July-June) cohorts of Tennessee Medicaid-enrolled children (2006-2014) from birth through age 2 years. We identified OM episodes using coded diagnoses (we classified diagnoses <21 days apart as the same episode). We modeled adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for OM comparing 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7)-era (2006-2010) and PCV13-era (2011-2014) birth cohorts, accounting for risk factors and dependence between first and subsequent episodes. Secondary analyses examined pressure equalization tube (PET) insertions and compared the risk of recurrent OM (≥3 episodes in 6 months or ≥4 episodes in 12 months) between PCV7- and PCV13-era birth cohorts.

RESULTS

We observed 618 968 OM episodes and 24 875 PET insertions among 368 063 children. OM and PET insertion rates increased during the PCV7 years and declined after PCV13 introduction. OM and PET insertion risks were lower in the 2013-2014 cohort compared with the 2009-2010 cohort (aHRs [95% confidence interval], 0.92 [.91-.93] and 0.76 [.72-.80], respectively). PCV13 introduction was associated with declines in the risk of first, subsequent, and recurrent OM.

CONCLUSIONS

The transition from PCV7 to PCV13 was associated with a decline of OM among children aged <2 years due to a reduction in the risk of both the first and subsequent OM episodes.

Effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on mortality from lower respiratory infections and pneumonia among under-fives

There is a well-known inverse association between mortality rate from infectious diseases and improvements in socioeconomic status, even though longer time-series are required to demonstrate this relationship. This general rule seems to apply to mortality from pneumonia in children in the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) era. Two recent published secular trend studies spanning from about 30 years among Brazilians under the age of five show either no effect of PCV - not even death rate decline from pneumococcal meningitis - or a modest one (8% reduction). Time-series mortality studies from pneumonia are needed for both, developed and developing countries, those who have implemented PCV or not. Results from these studies would provide critical input and feedback to public health policy makers.

Effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction on childhood pneumonia mortality in Brazil: a retrospective observational study

Background

Understanding the real-world effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) on pneumonia mortality is crucial because of the expectation that increased PCV use will substantially reduce the burden of pneumonia deaths in children younger than 5 years. However, few post-vaccine introduction studies have estimated the benefits of PCV use on childhood mortality and results have been inconsistent. Therefore, we set out to assess the effect of introduction of ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) on pneumonia mortality in children in Brazil.

Methods

In this retrospective observational study, we used publicly available mortality data of children aged 3–59 months in Brazil. We separated data by age group (3–11 months, 3–23 months, and 3–59 months) and stratified data by three different socioeconomic factors of Brazilian municipalities (in 2010): Human Development Index, proportion of children living in extreme poverty, and proportion of mothers with no primary education. We first examined long-term trends in childhood pneumonia mortality in Brazil (from 1980 to 2014). We then assessed the effect of PCV10—introduced in Brazil in 2010—both nationally and in municipalities stratified by socioeconomic status, with a synthetic control approach as our primary analytical method.

Findings

Between 1980 and 2010, a period during which Brazil's Human Development Index rose substantially, national pneumonia mortality in children younger than 5 years decreased from about 150 to 15 deaths per 100 000 children younger than 5 years. Despite rapid uptake of PCV10 after its introduction in 2010, we observed a further vaccine-associated decline of about 10% in national childhood pneumonia mortality with our primary analytical method, with a high degree of uncertainty in the estimates. We observed larger reductions in municipal childhood pneumonia mortality in all three age groups (3–11 months, 3–23 months, and 3–59 months) in municipalities with a high percentage of extreme childhood poverty and mothers with no primary education, with the largest decrease observed in children aged 3–23 months in municipalities with low maternal education (24%, 95% credible interval 7–35).

Interpretation

The large reduction observed from 1980 to 2010 in national pneumonia mortality in children younger than 5 years underscores that improvements in nutrition, hygiene, education, and health care have an important role in reducing pneumonia mortality. Although the PCV-associated reduction in childhood pneumonia mortality at the national level was modest, we found that PCV led to larger reductions in low-income municipalities. Similarly, large benefits might occur when PCVs are introduced in other low-income settings.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Updated Guidelines for the Management of Acute Otitis Media in Children by the Italian Society of Pediatrics: Prevention

BACKGROUND

In recent years, new information has been acquired regarding the diagnosis, treatment and prevention of acute otitis media (AOM). The Italian Pediatric Society, therefore, decided to issue an update to the Italian Pediatric Society guidelines published in 2010.

METHODS

The search was conducted on Pubmed, and only those studies regarding the pediatric age alone, in English or Italian, published between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2018, were included. Each study included in the review was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) methodology. The quality of the systematic reviews was evaluated using the A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) 2 appraisal tool. The guidelines were formulated using the GRADE methodology by a multidisciplinary panel of experts.

RESULTS

The importance of eliminating risk factors (passive smoking, environmental pollution, use of pacifier, obesity, limitation of day-care center attendance) and the promotion of breastfeeding and hygiene practices (nasal lavages) was confirmed. The importance of pneumococcal vaccination in the prevention of AOM was reiterated with regard to the prevention of both the first episode of AOM and recurrences. Grommets can be inserted in selected cases of recurrent AOM that did not respond to all other prevention strategies. Antibiotic prophylaxis is not recommended for the prevention of recurrent AOM, except in certain carefully selected cases. The use of complementary therapies, probiotics, xylitol and vitamin D is not recommended.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevention of episodes of AOM requires the elimination of risk factors and pneumococcal and influenza vaccination. The use of other products such as probiotics and vitamin D is not supported by adequate evidence.

Impact of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on the incidences of acute otitis media, recurrent otitis media and tympanostomy tube insertion in children after its implementation into the national immunization program in Turkey

The aim of this study was to investigate changes in the incidences of acute otitis media (AOM), recurrent AOM (rAOM) and tympanostomy tube (TT) insertion in children following the introduction of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) into the national immunization program (NIP) of Turkey in April 2011. National coverage for the PCV7 was 97% in 2009, 93% in 2010, 96% in 2011 and for the PVC13 was 97% in 2012, 97% in 2013, 96% in 2014, 97% in 2015, 98% in 2016, and 96% in 2017 for Turkish children younger than 12 months of age. A total of 499932 pediatric visits were recorded, and AOM was diagnosed in 23005 (4.6%) children. The incidence of AOM in children ≤5 years of age decreased from 10700/100000 (2011) to 4712/100000 (2017), with a significant decreasing trend (p < .001, r = -0.965). When the mean annual incidences of AOM between the transition period of PCV13 (years 2011/2012) were compared with those of a post-PCV13 period (years 2016/2017) for children ≤5 years of age, the incidence of AOM was found to be decreased by 54% (p = 0.013). The mean incidence of TT insertion was found to be decreased by 65% (p = 0.003) between the transition period of PCV13 and a post-PCV13 period for children ≤5 years of age. On the other hand, rAOM incidence was found to be increased in whole pediatric age groups. Our study showed a significant decrease in the incidences of AOM and TT insertion in children ≤5 years old after implementation of PCV13 in the NIP in Turkey.

Combined effect of PCV10 and meningococcal C conjugate vaccination on meningitis mortality among children under five years of age in Brazil

The 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in the Brazilian National Immunization Program in March 2010, scheduled at 2, 4, and 6 months, with a booster at 12-15 months of age. The meningococcal C conjugate vaccine (MCC) was introduced in November 2010, scheduled at 3 and 5 months, with a booster dose at 12-15 months of age and no catch-up for older age groups. In this interrupted time-series analysis study, we used Brazilian mortality data from 2005 to 2015 for children under five years of age (excluding data from the state of Bahia) to assess the combined impact of these vaccines on the overall burden of meningitis mortality among children aged 0-23 months and 2-4 years, as defined using meningitis and meningococcemia specific International Classification of Diseases - tenth revision codes. Secular trends and seasonality were taken into account. We found significant reductions for both age groups relative to those observed for the comparison group of diseases, with immediate effects after the transition period (2010-2011) of 29.2% and 27.5% for children aged 0-23 months and 2-4 years, respectively. These immediate effects were sustained throughout the post-vaccination period (2012-2015). In total, 337 deaths were averted by the combined effect of both vaccines, 238 (95%CI 169-319) for children aged 0-23 months and 99 (95%CI 56-144) for those aged 2-4 years. These results add strong evidence in support of investments in these vaccines by low and middle-income countries.

Clinical Utility of Polymerase Chain Reaction Testing for Streptococcus pneumoniae in Pediatric Cerebrospinal Fluid Samples: A Diagnostic Accuracy Study of More Than 2000 Samples From 2004 to 2015

The aim of this retrospective study was to review the diagnostic accuracy of real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples for Streptococcus pneumoniae DNA in comparison with traditional bacterial culture. The hypothesis was that PCR is more sensitive than culture and would detect more cases of pneumococcal meningitis, particularly in children treated with antimicrobials before CSF sampling occurred. Patients younger than 16 years of age who had a CSF sample tested for S. pneumoniae DNA by PCR between 2004 and 2015 were included. A total of 2025 samples were included, and the PCR had a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 98% for the detection of S. pneumoniae DNA in comparison with culture. Of the 28 culture negative/PCR positive cases, 25 (89%) were probable meningitis cases and only 3 (11%) were suspected false positive results. Nineteen (76%) of the 25 probable cases required ICU admission, and 3 died (12%). Six different serotypes were found in the culture positive patients (18C, 6B, 14, 22F, 7F and 33F). This study demonstrates that PCR testing of CSF samples for S. pneumoniae is sensitive and specific when compared with culture. PCR is particularly useful in detecting those cases where culture is negative, perhaps relating to pre-CSF sampling administration of antimicrobials.

Key features of invasive pneumococcal isolates recovered in Lima, Peru determined through whole genome sequencing

Before PCV7 introduction, invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) was responsible for approximately 12,000–18,000 deaths annually among children <5 years in Latin America. In Peru, PCV7 was introduced in 2009. We used whole genome sequencing to deduce key features of invasive strains collected in Lima, Peru from 2006 to 2011. We sequenced 212 IPD isolates from 16 hospitals in Lima pre (2006–2009; n = 133) and post (2010–2011; n = 79) PCV7 introduction; 130 (61.3%) isolates were from children ≤ 5 years old. CDC’s Streptococcus lab bioinformatics pipeline revealed serotypes, sequence types (STs), pilus genes, PBP types and other resistance determinants. During the pre-PCV7 period, serotype 14 was the most common serotype (24.8%), followed by 6 B (20.3%), 19F (10.5%), and 23F (6.8%). Post-PCV7, the proportion of PCV7 serotype 6 B decreased significantly (to 6.3%), while 19F (16.3%), 14 (15.0%), 23F (7.5%), and 19A (7.5%) were the most common serotypes; only serotypes 3 and 10A increased significantly. Overall, 82% (n = 173) of all isolates carried at least one resistance determinant, including 72 (34%) isolates that carried resistance determinants against 3 or more antimicrobial classes; of these 72 isolates, 56 (78%) belonged to a PCV7 serotype. Eighty-two STs were identified, with 53 of them organized in 14 clonal complexes. ST frequencies were distributed differently pre and post-PCV7 introduction, with only 18 of the 57 STs identified in years 2006–2009 isolates also observed in years 2010–2011 isolates. The apparent expansion of a 19F/ST1421 lineage with predicted β-lactam resistance (PBP type 13:16:20) and carrying resistance determinants against four additional antimicrobial classes was observed.

Reduction in all-cause otitis media-related outpatient visits in children after PCV10 introduction in Brazil

Few studies have reported the effect of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) on otitis media (OM) in infants. In particular, no population-based study in upper-middle income countries is available. In 2010, Brazil introduced PCV10 into its routine National Immunization Program using a 3+1 schedule. We measured the impact of PCV10 on all-cause OM in children. An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted in Goiânia/Brazil considering monthly rates (per 100,000) of all-cause OM outpatient visits in children aged 2–23 months. We used case-based data from the Outpatient Visits Information System of the Unified Health System coded for ICD-10 diagnosis for the period of August/2008 to July/2015. As a comparator, we used rates of outpatient visits due to all-other causes. The relative reduction of all-cause OM and all-other causes of outpatient visits were calculated as the difference between the predicted and observed cumulative rates of the PCV10 post-vaccination period. We then subtracted the relative reduction of all-other causes of outpatient visits from all-cause OM to obtain the impact of PCV10 on OM. In total, 6,401 OM outpatient visits were recorded in 4,793 children aged 2–23 months. Of these, 922 (19.2%) children had more than one OM episode. A significant reduction in all-cause OM visits was observed (50.7%; 95%CI: 42.2–59.2%; p = 0.013), while the reduction in visits due to all-other causes was 7.7% (95% CI 0.8–14.7%; p<0.001). The impact of PCV10 on all-cause OM was thus estimated at 43.0% (95%CI 41.4–44.5). This is the first study to show significant PCV10 impact on OM outpatient visits in infants in a developing country. Our findings corroborate the available evidence from developed countries.

Effect of co-trimoxazole on mortality in HIV-exposed but uninfected children in Botswana (the Mpepu Study): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis reduces mortality among HIV-infected children, but efficacy in HIV-exposed but uninfected (HEU) children in a non-malarial, low-breastfeeding setting with a low risk of mother-to-child transmission of HIV is unclear.

METHODS

HEU children in Botswana were randomly assigned to receive co-trimoxazole (100 mg/20 mg once daily until age 6 months and 200 mg/40 mg once daily thereafter) or placebo from age 14-34 days to age 15 months. Mothers chose whether to breastfeed or formula feed their children. Breastfed children were randomly assigned to breastfeeding for 6 months (Botswana guidelines) or 12 months (WHO guidelines). The primary outcome, analysed by a modified intention-to-treat approach, was cumulative child mortality from treatment assignment to age 18 months. We also assessed HIV-free survival by duration of breastfeeding. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01229761.

FINDINGS

From June 7, 2011, to April 2, 2015, 2848 HEU children were randomly assigned to receive co-trimoxazole (n=1423) or placebo (n=1425). The data and safety monitoring board stopped the study early because of a low likelihood of benefit with co-trimoxazole. Only 153 (5%) children were lost to follow-up (76 in the co-trimoxazole group and 77 in the placebo group), and 2053 (72%) received treatment continuously to age 15 months, death, or study closure. Mortality after the start of study treatment was similar in the two study groups: 30 children died in the co-trimoxazole group, compared with 34 in the placebo group (estimated mortality at 18 months 2·4% vs 2·6%; difference -0·2%, 95% CI -1·5 to 1·0, p=0·70). We saw no difference in hospital admissions between groups (12·5% in the co-trimoxazole group vs 17·4% in the placebo group, p=0·19) or grade 3-4 clinical adverse events (16·5% vs 18·4%, p=0·18). Grade 3-4 anaemia did not differ between groups (8·1% vs 8·3%, p=0·93), but grade 3-4 neutropenia was more frequent in the co-trimoxazole group than in the placebo group (8·1% vs 5·8%, p=0·03). More co-trimoxazole resistance in commensal Escherichia coli isolated from stool samples was seen in children aged 3 or 6 months in the co-trimoxazole group than in the placebo group (p=0·001 and p=0·01, respectively). 572 (20%) children were breastfed. HIV infection and mortality did not differ significantly by duration of breastfeeding (3·9% for 6 months vs 1·9% for 12 months, p=0·21).

INTERPRETATION

Prophylactic co-trimoxazole seems to offer no survival benefit among HEU children in non-malarial, low-breastfeeding areas with a low risk of mother-to-child transmission of HIV.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health.

Use of cerebrospinal fluid and serum samples impregnated on FTATM Elute filter paper for the diagnosis of infections caused by Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae

Background

The lack of information regarding the burden of acute bacterial meningitis in Latin America leads to a reduction in the estimated incidence rates of the disease, and impairs public health decisions on the use and follow-up of preventive interventions, particularly, the evaluation of existing vaccination policies. The use of the real-time PCR in diagnostic routine procedures has resulted in a substantial increase in confirmed bacterial meningitis cases. However, in resource-poor countries, these assays are only available in reference laboratories. Sample transportation to these laboratories is a critical constraint, as it requires specialized, high cost courier services. To overcome this barrier we evaluated the use of FTA^TM Elute filter paper cards for the conservation and processing of samples under normal environmental conditions, as they would be when transported from remote and under-equipped healthcare facilities to the reference centers. A total of 401 samples received in 2015 as part of Sao Paulo’s national surveillance for routine diagnosis were selected for this study.

Methods

The sensitivity and specificity of real-time PCR were evaluated using fresh serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples processed using our laboratory’s standard DNA extraction, and processing the same samples after being dried and stored on FTA^TM card, and DNA extracted following the manufacturer’s instructions.

Results

The sensitivities for detection of Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Haemophilus influenzae from CSF dried and stored on FTA^TM cards were 98%, 92%, and 100%, respectively, and with serum samples were 73%, 88%, and 100%, respectively. When compared to our laboratory’s standard methodology, results showed high concordance, with Kappa index ranges of 0.9877–1.00 for CSF, and 0.8004–1.00 for serum samples.

Conclusion

The use of FTA^TM cards for CSF and serum conservation and transport represents a rapid, reliable, and cost-effective alternative that will allow obtaining valuable epidemiological information that would otherwise be lost.

Impact and Effectiveness of 10 and 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines on Hospitalization and Mortality in Children Aged Less than 5 Years in Latin American Countries: A Systematic Review

Background

Several Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries have introduced pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-10 or PCV-13) in their routine national immunization programs.

Objectives

We aimed to summarize the evidence of PCV impact and effectiveness in children under 5 years old in the LAC Region.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of the literature on impact or effectiveness of PCVs on deaths or hospitalizations due to invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), pneumonia, meningitis and sepsis. We searched Medline, WoS, Lilacs, Scopus, Central and gray literature published in any language from 2009 to January 2016. We included studies addressing the outcomes of interest in children in the target age group, and with the following designs: randomized trials, cohort or case-control, interrupted time series with at least three data points before and after the intervention, and before-after studies. Screening of citations, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment were conducted in duplicate by independent reviewers, according to the study protocol registered on PROSPERO. Descriptive analysis of the effectiveness measurements and sensitivity analysis were conducted. Effectiveness is reported as 1-OR or 1-RR for case control or cohort/clinical trials, and as percent change of disease incidence rates for before-after studies.

Results

We identified 1,085 citations, 892 from databases and 193 from other sources. Of these, 22 were further analyzed. Studies were from Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Argentina, Peru and Nicaragua. Effectiveness ranged from 8.8–37.8% for hospitalizations due to X-ray confirmed pneumonia, 7.4–20.6% for clinical pneumonia, and 13.3–87.7% for meningitis hospitalizations, and 56–83.3% for IPD hospitalization, varying by age, outcome definition, type of vaccine and study design.

Conclusions

Available evidence to date indicates significant impact of both PCV-10 and PCV-13 in the outcomes studied, with no evidence of the superiority of one vaccine over the other on pneumonia, IPD or meningitis hospitalization reduction in children under 5 years old.

Challenges to estimating vaccine impact using hospitalization data

Because the real-world impact of new vaccines cannot be known before they are implemented in national programs, post-implementation studies at the population level are critical. Studies based on analysis of hospitalization rates of vaccine-preventable outcomes are typically used for this purpose. However, estimates of vaccine impact based on hospitalization data are particularly prone to confounding, as hospitalization rates are tightly linked to changes in the quality, access and use of the healthcare system, which often occur simultaneously with introduction of new vaccines. Here we illustrate how changes in healthcare delivery coincident with vaccine introduction can influence estimates of vaccine impact, using as an example reductions in infant pneumonia hospitalizations after introduction of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) in Brazil. To this end, we explore the effect of changes in several metrics of quality and access to public healthcare on trends in hospitalization rates before (2008–09) and after (2011–12) PCV10 introduction in 2010. Changes in infant pneumonia hospitalization rates following vaccine introduction were significantly associated with concomitant changes in hospital capacity and the fraction of the population using public hospitals. Importantly, reduction of pneumonia hospitalization rates after PCV10 were also associated with the expansion of outpatient services in several Brazilian states, falling more sharply where primary care coverage and the number of health units offering basic and emergency care increased more. We show that adjustments for unrelated (non-vaccine) trends commonly employed by impact studies, such as use of single control outcomes, are not always sufficient for accurate impact assessment. We discuss several ways to identify and overcome such biases, including sensitivity analyses using different denominators to calculate hospitalizations rates and methods that track changes in the outpatient setting. Employing these practices can improve the accuracy of vaccine impact estimates, particularly in evolving healthcare settings typical of low- and middle-income countries.