Facing the Threat of COVID-19 in Pakistan: A Nation's Dilemma

COVID-19 in Pakistan: A national analysis of five pandemic waves

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic showed distinct waves where cases ebbed and flowed. While each country had slight, nuanced differences, lessons from each wave with country-specific details provides important lessons for prevention, understanding medical outcomes and the role of vaccines. This paper compares key characteristics from the five different COVID-19 waves in Pakistan.

METHODS

Data was sourced from daily national situation reports (Sitreps) prepared by the National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) in Islamabad. We use specific criteria to define COVID-19 waves. The start of each COVID-19 wave is marked by the day of the lowest number of daily cases preceding a sustained increase, while the end is the day with the lowest number of cases following a 7-days decline, which should be lower than the 7 days following it. Key variables such as COVID-19 tests, cases, and deaths with their rates of change to the peak and then to the trough are used to draw descriptive comparisons. Additionally, a linear regression model estimates daily new COVID-19 deaths in Pakistan.

RESULTS

Pakistan saw five distinct waves, each of which displayed the typical topology of a complete infectious disease epidemic. The time from wave-start to peak became progressively shorter, and from wave-peak to trough, progressively longer. Each wave appears to also be getting shorter, except for wave 4, which lasted longer than wave 3. A one percent increase in vaccinations decreased deaths by 0.38% (95% CI: -0.67, -0.08) in wave 5 and the association is statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

Each wave displayed distinct characteristics that must be interpreted in the context of the level of response and the variant driving the epidemic. Key indicators suggest that COVID-19 preventive measures kept pace with the disease. Waves 1 and 2 were mainly about prevention and learning how to clinically manage patients. Vaccination started late during wave 3 and its impact on hospitalizations and deaths became visible in wave 5. The impact of highly virulent strains Alpha/B.1.1.7 and Delta/B.1.617.2 variants during wave 3 and milder but more infectious Omicron/B.1.1.529 during wave 5 are apparent.

Telehealth as a public health approach to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan: A narrative review

Technology is instrumental in delivering health services, especially telehealth during the COVID-19 pandemic. This article aimed to explore the role of telehealth as a public health approach to support responses to address the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan. We developed this article by mapping existing telehealth initiatives developed and implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan. The initiatives were identified searching online portals such as Google Scholar, PubMed, and websites of various governmental and non-governmental agencies. The services are categorized into teleconsultation and follow-ups, online vaccine registration, information dissemination, high-risk subset tracking, virtual Health Care Worker (HCW) and medical student training, and tele-psychological counseling. The teleconsultation category offers online registration and follow-ups. Information dissemination services include federal helpline, SMS alerts, and social media campaigns. The high-risk subset tracking services include app-based COVID-19 checks and online surveys. Virtual HCW and medical student training services include tele-ICU support, COVID-19 critical care courses, and COVID management courses. The tele-psychological counseling services offer helplines for emotional support, proactive counseling for COVID-19 patients, and mental health support and psychiatry services. Telehealth interventions provided novel solutions amid health and social crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Health care systems need to expand telehealth services and ensure that health care organizations deliver effective and safe medical care. However, future research should focus on assessing the impact of telehealth on population health.

Reasons behind declining of cases during the COVID-19 wavelets in Pakistan: public healthcare system or government smart lockdown policy?

The latest statistics show that COVID-19 is still very active, and cases are on the rise across various countries and regions. On the other hand, statistics from Pakistan show a declining trend, especially during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand this declining trend and answering our established question, "What are the reasons behind the decline of the COVID-19 cases in Pakistan - public healthcare facilities or government smart lockdown policy?" narrative literature-based evidence collected from government official websites, reports and also Google Scholar. Our findings suggest that the government's innovative smart lockdown strategy and its execution at the right time with the consensus of all stakeholders accompanied with the observing of COVID-19 standard operation procedures resulted in controlling the pandemic. Effective smart lockdown policy allows the government to identify shortcomings of and improve the capabilities of healthcare for the continuation of balanced socio-economic activities to avoid future spread-out of the pandemic in the time of crisis under national and World Health Organization guidelines.

Impacts of COVID-19 on individuals' mobility behavior in Pakistan based on self-reported responses

The COVID-19 pandemic has been extremely disturbing mobility behavior due to travel restrictions and perceived COVID-19 threats. Recently, researchers from developed countries have shown interest in quantifying the impacts of the COVID-19 on individuals' mobility; however, similar research themes in lower income developing countries like Pakistan have not been sufficiently explored. Therefore, the objectives of the study are; 1) to explore the changes in self-reported individual's mobility behavior-trip frequencies by mode and by purpose in three COVID-19 severity periods; 2) to quantify the effects of respondents' personal (i.e., age, gender, education, and living place), and perceived details (i.e., safety perceptions, the COVID-19 threat perceptions) on the change in mobility behavior in the COVID-19 severity change; 3) to analyze the willingness to use public transportation in the post-pandemic period.

METHODS

A web-based questionnaire survey was conducted from September 2020 to November 2020, resulting in 565 responses. Descriptive analysis, random parameter bivariate probit modeling, and structural equation modeling are adopted to achieve the objectives.

RESULTS

The results reflect the change in individuals' mobility behavior in three severity periods of COVID-19, including before outbreak, during the most serious period, and after the most serious period. A substantial reduction in individuals' mobility was observed during the most serious period, which is recovering back to normal. The results also indicate the relationship of individuals' personal and perceived characteristics with the change in mobility in COVID-19 severity changes from before-to-serious and from the serious-to-after most serious period.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic has been affecting individuals' mobility behavior in Pakistan. The study's findings provide insightful information for the transportation agencies to better prepare for sustainable transportation management in the post-pandemic era.

Global Financial Crisis, Smart Lockdown Strategies, and the COVID-19 Spillover Impacts: A Global Perspective Implications From Southeast Asia

This present study primarily emphasizes to seek the COVID-19 adverse impacts posing health challenges and global economic crisis. The pandemic (COVID-19) continues to hit the global economies adversely. Pakistan is the 5th-most-populous nation, and recorded positive cases with the third-highest positivity ratio in South Asia, and 26th-highest deaths toll of 21,450 and 29th number of most COVID-19 positive cases with 933,750 worldwide, as of June 6, 2021. The first wave appeared at the end of May 2020, and mid of June reported its peak, which ended by mid-July 2020. Early November 2020 witnessed the second wave with low intensity reached the climax by mid-December. The COVID-19's third wave severely affected the country during mid-March 2021. It exhibited the highest positivity rate, around 20%. New positive patients and deaths toll commenced to skyrocket and reported peak by April 15, 2021. Then situation gradually improved with effective measures and restrictions. The pandemic coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected 220 territories, regions, and countries and resulted in more than 174.116 million infections, deaths, 3.75 million, and 157.157 million positive cases fully recovered from this infectious disease, as of June 7, 2021. The pandemic has caused a severe crisis of healthcare facilities and economic challenges worldwide. Pakistani economy reported GPD's negative growth (-0.05) for the first time over the last 60 years in 2020, which caused a massive financial crisis. The Government's relief package intervened to reduce public mental stress and improve the quality of their lives. IMF reported that Pakistan's GPD bounced back at 4% growth by June 2021. This article determines that economic instability and health burden happened in Pakistan for a longer time than financial disequilibrium that occurred globally. Pakistan encountered this crisis due to its feeble healthcare systems and fragile economy. This study explores adverse health issues and spillover consequences on the economic crisis in Pakistan with global implications. It recommends smart lockdown restrictions in most affected areas to reopen the economic cycle with strict preventive measures to minimize the COVD-19 adverse consequences.