The impact of calibration and clock-model choice on molecular estimates of divergence times

Assessing the effect of model specification and prior sensitivity on Bayesian tests of temporal signal

Our understanding of the evolution of many microbes has been revolutionised by the molecular clock, a statistical tool to infer evolutionary rates and timescales from analyses of biomolecular sequences. In all molecular clock models, evolutionary rates and times are jointly unidentifiable and 'calibration' information must therefore be used. For many organisms, sequences sampled at different time points can be employed for such calibration. Before attempting to do so, it is recommended to verify that the data carry sufficient information for molecular dating, a practice referred to as evaluation of temporal signal. Recently, a fully Bayesian approach, BETS (Bayesian Evaluation of Temporal Signal), was proposed to overcome known limitations of other commonly used techniques such as root-to-tip regression or date randomisation tests. BETS requires the specification of a full Bayesian phylogenetic model, posing several considerations for untangling the impact of model choice on the detection of temporal signal. Here, we aimed to (i) explore the effect of molecular clock model and tree prior specification on the results of BETS and (ii) provide guidelines for improving our confidence in molecular clock estimates. Using microbial molecular sequence data sets and simulation experiments, we assess the impact of the tree prior and its hyperparameters on the accuracy of temporal signal detection. In particular, highly informative priors that are inconsistent with the data can result in the incorrect detection of temporal signal. In consequence, we recommend: (i) using prior predictive simulations to determine whether the prior generates a reasonable expectation of parameters of interest, such as the evolutionary rate and age of the root node, (ii) conducting prior sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the posterior to the choice of prior, and (iii) selecting a molecular clock model that reasonably describes the evolutionary process.

Dating in the Dark: Elevated Substitution Rates in Cave Cockroaches (Blattodea: Nocticolidae) Have Negative Impacts on Molecular Date Estimates

Rates of nucleotide substitution vary substantially across the Tree of Life, with potentially confounding effects on phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses. A large acceleration in mitochondrial substitution rate occurs in the cockroach family Nocticolidae, which predominantly inhabit subterranean environments. To evaluate the impacts of this among-lineage rate heterogeneity on estimates of phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary timescales, we analyzed nuclear ultraconserved elements (UCEs) and mitochondrial genomes from nocticolids and other cockroaches. Substitution rates were substantially elevated in nocticolid lineages compared with other cockroaches, especially in mitochondrial protein-coding genes. This disparity in evolutionary rates is likely to have led to different evolutionary relationships being supported by phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial genomes and UCE loci. Furthermore, Bayesian dating analyses using relaxed-clock models inferred much deeper divergence times compared with a flexible local clock. Our phylogenetic analysis of UCEs, which is the first genome-scale study to include all 13 major cockroach families, unites Corydiidae and Nocticolidae and places Anaplectidae as the sister lineage to the rest of Blattoidea. We uncover an extraordinary level of genetic divergence in Nocticolidae, including two highly distinct clades that separated ~115 million years ago despite both containing representatives of the genus Nocticola. The results of our study highlight the potential impacts of high among-lineage rate variation on estimates of phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary timescales.

Diversity and biogeography of South American mud turtles elucidated by multilocus DNA sequencing (Testudines: Kinosternidae)

Kinosternon is the most speciose genus of extant turtles, with 22 currently recognized species, distributed across large parts of the Americas. Most species have small distributions, but K. leucostomum and K. scorpioides range from Mexico to South America. Previous studies have found discordance between mitochondrial and nuclear phylogenies in some kinosternid groups, with the current taxonomy following the nuclear-based results. Herein, based on extended molecular, geographic, and taxonomic sampling, we explore the phylogeographic structure and taxonomic limits for K. leucostomum and the K. scorpioides group and present a fossil-calibrated nuclear time tree for Kinosternon. Our results reveal contrasting differentiation patterns for the K. scorpioides group and K. leucostomum, despite overlapping distributions. Kinosternon leucostomum shows only shallow geographic divergence, whereas the K. scorpioides group is polyphyletic with up to 10 distinct taxa, some of them undescribed. We support the elevation of K. s. albogulare and K. s. cruentatum to species level. Given the deep divergence within the genus Kinosternon, we propose the recognition of three subgenera, Kinosternon, Cryptochelys and Thyrosternum, and the abandonment of the group-based classification, at least for the K. leucostomum and K. scorpioides groups. Our results show an initial split in Kinosternon that gave rise to two main radiations, one Nearctic and one mainly Neotropical. Most speciation events in Kinosternon occurred during the Quaternary and we hypothesize that they were mediated by both climatic and geological events. Additionally, our data imply that at least three South American colonizations occurred, two in the K. leucostomum group, and one in the K. scorpioides group. Additionally, we hypothesize that discordance between mitochondrial and nuclear phylogenetic signal is due to mitochondrial capture from an extinct kinosternine lineage.

Fast Bayesian Inference of Phylogenies from Multiple Continuous Characters

Time-scaled phylogenetic trees are an ultimate goal of evolutionary biology and a necessary ingredient in comparative studies. The accumulation of genomic data has resolved the tree of life to a great extent, yet timing evolutionary events remain challenging if not impossible without external information such as fossil ages and morphological characters. Methods for incorporating morphology in tree estimation have lagged behind their molecular counterparts, especially in the case of continuous characters. Despite recent advances, such tools are still direly needed as we approach the limits of what molecules can teach us. Here, we implement a suite of state-of-the-art methods for leveraging continuous morphology in phylogenetics, and by conducting extensive simulation studies we thoroughly validate and explore our methods' properties. While retaining model generality and scalability, we make it possible to estimate absolute and relative divergence times from multiple continuous characters while accounting for uncertainty. We compile and analyze one of the most data-type diverse data sets to date, comprised of contemporaneous and ancient molecular sequences, and discrete and continuous morphological characters from living and extinct Carnivora taxa. We conclude by synthesizing lessons about our method's behavior, and suggest future research venues.

Parallel signatures of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and human Y-chromosome phylogeography support the Two Layer model of East Asian population history

The Two Layer hypothesis is fast becoming the favoured narrative describing East Asian population history. Under this model, hunter-gatherer groups who initially peopled East Asia via a route south of the Himalayas were assimilated by agriculturalist migrants who arrived via a northern route across Eurasia. A lack of ancient samples from tropical East Asia limits the resolution of this model. We consider insight afforded by patterns of variation within the human pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) by analysing its phylogeographic signatures jointly with the human Y-chromosome. We demonstrate the Y-chromosome lineages enriched in the traditionally hunter-gatherer groups associated with East Asia's first layer of peopling to display deep roots, low long-term effective population size, and diversity patterns consistent with a southern entry route. These characteristics mirror those of the evolutionarily ancient Mtb lineage 1. The remaining East Asian Y-chromosome lineage is almost entirely absent from traditionally hunter-gatherer groups and displays spatial and temporal characteristics which are incompatible with a southern entry route, and which link it to the development of agriculture in modern-day China. These characteristics mirror those of the evolutionarily modern Mtb lineage 2. This model paves the way for novel host-pathogen coevolutionary research hypotheses in East Asia.

Impacts of Taxon-Sampling Schemes on Bayesian Tip Dating Under the Fossilized Birth-Death Process

Evolutionary timescales can be inferred by molecular-clock analyses of genetic data and fossil evidence. Bayesian phylogenetic methods such as tip dating provide a powerful framework for inferring evolutionary timescales, but the most widely used priors for tree topologies and node times often assume that present-day taxa have been sampled randomly or exhaustively. In practice, taxon sampling is often carried out so as to include representatives of major lineages, such as orders or families. We examined the impacts of different densities of diversified sampling on Bayesian tip dating on unresolved fossilized birth-death (FBD) trees, in which fossil taxa are topologically constrained but their exact placements are averaged out. We used synthetic data generated by simulations of nucleotide sequence evolution, fossil occurrences, and diversified taxon sampling. Our analyses under the diversified-sampling FBD process show that increasing taxon-sampling density does not necessarily improve divergence-time estimates. However, when informative priors were specified for the root age or when tree topologies were fixed to those used for simulation, the performance of tip dating on unresolved FBD trees maintains its accuracy and precision or improves with taxon-sampling density. By exploring three situations in which models are mismatched, we find that including all relevant fossils, without pruning off those that are incompatible with the diversified-sampling FBD process, can lead to underestimation of divergence times. Our reanalysis of a eutherian mammal data set confirms some of the findings from our simulation study, and reveals the complexity of diversified taxon sampling in phylogenomic data sets. In highlighting the interplay of taxon-sampling density and other factors, the results of our study have practical implications for using Bayesian tip dating to infer evolutionary timescales across the Tree of Life. [Bayesian tip dating; eutherian mammals; fossilized birth-death process; phylogenomics; taxon sampling.].

Exceptional levels of species discovery ameliorate inferences of the biogeography and diversification of an Afrotropical catfish family

Endeavours in species discovery, particularly the characterisation of cryptic species, have been greatly aided by the application of DNA molecular sequence data to phylogenetic reconstruction and inference of evolutionary and biogeographic processes. However, the extent of cryptic and undescribed diversity remains unclear in tropical freshwaters, where biodiversity is declining at alarming rates. To investigate how data on previously undiscovered biodiversity impacts inferences of biogeography and diversification dynamics, we generated a densely sampled species-level family tree of Afrotropical Mochokidae catfishes (220 valid species) that was ca. 70 % complete. This was achieved through extensive continental sampling specifically targeting the genus Chiloglanis a specialist of the relatively unexplored fast-flowing lotic habitat. Applying multiple species-delimitation methods, we report exceptional levels of species discovery for a vertebrate genus, conservatively delimiting a staggering ca. 50 putative new Chiloglanis species, resulting in a near 80 % increase in species richness for the genus. Biogeographic reconstructions of the family identified the Congo Basin as a critical region in the generation of mochokid diversity, and further revealed complex scenarios for the build-up of continental assemblages of the two most species rich mochokid genera, Synodontis and Chiloglanis. While Syndontis showed most divergence events within freshwater ecoregions consistent with largely in situ diversification, Chiloglanis showed much less aggregation of freshwater ecoregions, suggesting dispersal as a key diversification process in this older group. Despite the significant increase in mochokid diversity identified here, diversification rates were best supported by a constant rate model consistent with patterns in many other tropical continental radiations. While our findings highlight fast-flowing lotic freshwaters as potential hotspots for undescribed and cryptic species diversity, a third of all freshwater fishes are currently threatened with extinction, signifying an urgent need to increase exploration of tropical freshwaters to better characterise and conserve its biodiversity.

Deriving calibrations for Arawakan using archaeological evidence

This paper identifies time calibration points for accurately rooting and dating the phylogeny of Arawakan, the largest Indigenous linguistic family of the Americas. We present and model a methodology for extracting calibration points from the archaeological record, based on principles of geographical overlap between archaeological sites and Arawakan peoples, and on continuity in material culture between archaeological finds and modern Arawakan practices. Based on a consensus model of the expansion of the Arawakan family from Central Amazonia, we focus on archaeological finds in Arawakan expansion zones, where Arawakan material culture abruptly appears in a given region, and where only a single major Arawakan subgroup/clade is present. We find 12 calibration points from archaeological sites in Arawakan expansion zones and also identify more recent calibration points from the historical record based on first mentions of ethnonyms and early sources of lexical data.

No phylogenomic support for a Cenozoic origin of the "living fossil" Isoetes

PREMISE

The isoetalean lineage has a rich fossil record that extends to the Devonian, but the age of the living clade is unclear. Recent results indicate that it is young, from the Cenozoic, whereas earlier work based on less data from a denser taxon sampling yielded Mesozoic median ages.

METHODS

We analyzed node ages in Isoetes using two genomic data sets (plastome and nuclear ribosomal cistron), three clock models implemented in MrBayes (ILN, WN, and TK02 models), and a conservative approach to calibration.

RESULTS

While topological results were consistently resolved in Isoetes estimated crown group ages range from the latest Paleozoic (mid-Permian) to the Mesozoic depending on data type and clock model. The oldest estimates were retrieved using the autocorrelated TK02 clock model. An (early) Cenozoic age was only obtained under one specific condition (plastome data analyzed with the uncorrelated ILN clock model). That same plastome data set also yielded the oldest (mid-Permian) age estimate when analyzed with the autocorrelated TK02 clock model. Adding the highly divergent, recently established sister species Isoetes wormaldii to the data set approximately doubled the average median node depth to the Isoetes crown group.

CONCLUSIONS

There is no consistent support for a Cenozoic origin of the living clade Isoetes. We obtained seemingly well-founded, yet strongly deviating results depending on data type and clock model. The single most important future improvement is probably to add calibration points, which requires an improved understanding of the isoetalean fossil record or alternative bases for calibration.

Confidence intervals in molecular dating by maximum likelihood

Molecular dating has been widely used to infer the times of past evolutionary events using molecular sequences. This paper describes three bootstrap methods to infer confidence intervals under a penalized likelihood framework. The basic idea is to use data pseudoreplicates to infer uncertainty in the branch lengths of a phylogeny reconstructed with molecular sequences. The three specific bootstrap methods are nonparametric (direct tree bootstrapping), semiparametric (rate smoothing), and parametric (Poisson simulation). Our extensive simulation study showed that the three methods perform generally well under a simple strict clock model of molecular evolution; however, the results were less positive with data simulated using an uncorrelated or a correlated relaxed clock model. Several factors impacted, possibly in interaction, the performance of the confidence intervals. Increasing the number of calibration points had a positive effect, as well as increasing the sequence length or the number of sequences although both latter effects depended on the model of evolution. A case study is presented with a molecular phylogeny of the Felidae (Mammalia: Carnivora). A comparison was made with a Bayesian analysis: the results were very close in terms of confidence intervals and there was no marked tendency for an approach to produce younger or older bounds compared to the other.

Origins, phylogenetic relationships and host-parasite interactions of Troglotrematoidea since the cretaceous

In the current study, we raise the issue concerning origins and historical relationships of the trematodes from the families Troglotrematidae and Paragonimidae using phylogenetic analysis and molecular-clock method for estimating evolutionary rates. For the first time we provided 28S rRNA gene fragment (1764 bp) for the type species Troglotrema acutum - zoonotic trematodes that cause cranial lesions (troglotremiasis) in mustelid and canid mammals of the Central Europe, Iberian Peninsula, and North-West Caucasus. Molecular genetic analysis revealed that T. acutum belongs to the monophyletic family Troglotrematidae sister with the family Paragonimidae. The family Troglotrematidae includes five genera: Nanophyetus, Troglotrema, Skrjabinophyetus, Nephrotrema, and Macroorchis; and the family Paragonimidae is monotypic including the only genus Paragonimus. We recover the superfamily Troglotrematoidea for these two families. Divergence of the common ancestor of the superfamily Troglotrematoidea (common troglotrematoid ancestor) likely occurred during the Cretaceous period of the Mesozoic Era and potentially originated in the Asiatic region. The lineage of the family Troglotrematidae is much closer to the common troglotrematoid ancestor than the species of the family Paragonimidae. The radiation time of the common troglotrematoid ancestor (126 Ma, the Early Cretaceous), and formation of the families Troglotrematidae and Paragonimidae (96 Ma and 73 Ma respectively, the Late Cretaceous) corresponds to the time of settling in East Asia by many species of mammaliaforms (about 130-70 Ma).

Investigating the reliability of molecular estimates of evolutionary time when substitution rates and speciation rates vary

Background

An accurate timescale of evolutionary history is essential to testing hypotheses about the influence of historical events and processes, and the timescale for evolution is increasingly derived from analysis of DNA sequences. But variation in the rate of molecular evolution complicates the inference of time from DNA. Evidence is growing for numerous factors, such as life history and habitat, that are linked both to the molecular processes of mutation and fixation and to rates of macroevolutionary diversification. However, the most widely used methods rely on idealised models of rate variation, such as the uncorrelated and autocorrelated clocks, and molecular dating methods are rarely tested against complex models of rate change. One relationship that is not accounted for in molecular dating is the potential for interaction between molecular substitution rates and speciation, a relationship that has been supported by empirical studies in a growing number of taxa. If these relationships are as widespread as current evidence suggests, they may have a significant influence on molecular dates.

Results

We simulate phylogenies and molecular sequences under three different realistic rate variation models—one in which speciation rates and substitution rates both vary but are unlinked, one in which they covary continuously and one punctuated model in which molecular change is concentrated in speciation events, using empirical case studies to parameterise realistic simulations. We test three commonly used “relaxed clock” molecular dating methods against these realistic simulations to explore the degree of error in molecular dates under each model. We find average divergence time inference errors ranging from 12% of node age for the unlinked model when reconstructed under an uncorrelated rate prior using BEAST 2, to up to 91% when sequences evolved under the punctuated model are reconstructed under an autocorrelated prior using PAML.

Conclusions

We demonstrate the potential for substantial errors in molecular dates when both speciation rates and substitution rates vary between lineages. This study highlights the need for tests of molecular dating methods against realistic models of rate variation generated from empirical parameters and known relationships.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-02015-8.

Phylogenetics in Space: How Continuous Spatial Structure Impacts Tree Inference

The tendency to discretize biology permeates taxonomy and systematics, leading to models that simplify the often continuous nature of populations. Even when the assumption of panmixia is relaxed, most models still assume some degree of discrete structure. The multispecies coalescent has emerged as a powerful model in phylogenetics, but in its common implementation is entirely space-independent - what we call the "missing z-axis". In this article, we review the many lines of evidence for how continuous spatial structure can impact phylogenetic inference. We illustrate and expand on these by using complex continuous-space demographic models that include distinct modes of speciation. We find that the impact of spatial structure permeates all aspects of phylogenetic inference, including gene tree stoichiometry, topological and branch-length variance, network estimation, and species delimitation. We conclude by utilizing our results to suggest how researchers can identify spatial structure in phylogenetic datasets.

Phylogeography of the parasitic mite Laelaps agilis in Western Palearctic shows lineages lacking host specificity but possessing different demographic histories

Background

Laelaps agilis C.L. Koch, 1836 is one the most abundant and widespread parasitic mite species in the Western Palearctic. It is a permanent ectoparasite associated with the Apodemus genus, which transmits Hepatozoon species via the host’s blood. Phylogenetic relationships, genealogy and host specificity of the mite are uncertain in the Western Palearctic. Here, we investigated the population genetic structure of 132 individual mites across Europe from their Apodemus and Clethrionomys hosts. Phylogenetic relationships and genetic variation of the populations were analyzed using cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene sequences.

Results

We recovered three main mtDNA lineages within L. agilis in the Western Palearctic, which differentiated between 1.02 and 1.79 million years ago during the Pleistocene period: (i) Lineage A, including structured populations from Western Europe and the Czech Republic, (ii) Lineage B, which included only a few individuals from Greece and the Czech Republic; and (iii) Lineage C, which comprised admixed populations from Western and Eastern Europe. Contrary to their population genetic differentiation, the lineages did not show signs of specificity to different hosts. Finally, we confirmed that the sympatric congener L. clethrionomydis is represented by a separated monophyletic lineage.

Conclusion

Differences in the depth of population structure between L. agilis Lineages A and C, corroborated by the neutrality tests and demographic history analyses, suggested a stable population size in the structured Lineage A and a rapid range expansion for the geographically admixed Lineage C. We hypothesized that the two lineages were associated with hosts experiencing different glaciation histories. The lack of host specificity in L. agilis lineages was in contrast to the co-occurring highly host-specific lineages of Polyplax serrata lice, sharing Apodemus hosts. The incongruence was attributed to the differences in mobility between the parasites, allowing mites to switch hosts more often.

Diversification Rate is Associated with Rate of Molecular Evolution in Ray-Finned Fish (Actinopterygii)

Understanding the factors that drive diversification of taxa across the tree of life is a key focus of macroevolutionary research. While the effects of life history, ecology, climate and geography on diversity have been studied for many taxa, the relationship between molecular evolution and diversification has received less attention. However, correlations between rates of molecular evolution and diversification rate have been detected in a range of taxa, including reptiles, plants and birds. A correlation between rates of molecular evolution and diversification rate is a prediction of several evolutionary theories, including the evolutionary speed hypothesis which links variation in mutation rates to differences in speciation rates. If it is widespread, such correlations could also have significant practical impacts, if they are not adequately accounted for in phylogenetic inference of evolutionary rates and timescales. Ray-finned fish (Actinopterygii) offer a prime target to test for this relationship due to their extreme variation in clade size suggesting a wide range of diversification rates. We employ both a sister-pairs approach and a whole-tree approach to test for correlations between substitution rate and net diversification. We also collect life history and ecological trait data and account for potential confounding factors including body size, latitude, max depth and reef association. We find evidence to support a relationship between diversification and synonymous rates of nuclear evolution across two published backbone phylogenies, as well as weak evidence for a relationship between mitochondrial nonsynonymous rates and diversification at the genus level.

Integrated phylogenomics and fossil data illuminate the evolution of beetles

Beetles constitute the most biodiverse animal order with over 380 000 described species and possibly several million more yet unnamed. Recent phylogenomic studies have arrived at considerably incongruent topologies and widely varying estimates of divergence dates for major beetle clades. Here, we use a dataset of 68 single-copy nuclear protein-coding (NPC) genes sampling 129 out of the 193 recognized extant families as well as the first comprehensive set of fully justified fossil calibrations to recover a refined timescale of beetle evolution. Using phylogenetic methods that counter the effects of compositional and rate heterogeneity, we recover a topology congruent with morphological studies, which we use, combined with other recent phylogenomic studies, to propose several formal changes in the classification of Coleoptera: Scirtiformia and Scirtoidea sensu nov., Clambiformia ser. nov. and Clamboidea sensu nov., Rhinorhipiformia ser. nov., Byrrhoidea sensu nov., Dryopoidea stat. res., Nosodendriformia ser. nov. and Staphyliniformia sensu nov., and Erotyloidea stat. nov., Nitiduloidea stat. nov. and Cucujoidea sensu nov., alongside changes below the superfamily level. Our divergence time analyses recovered a late Carboniferous origin of Coleoptera, a late Palaeozoic origin of all modern beetle suborders and a Triassic-Jurassic origin of most extant families, while fundamental divergences within beetle phylogeny did not coincide with the hypothesis of a Cretaceous Terrestrial Revolution.

Not that young: combining plastid phylogenomic, plate tectonic and fossil evidence indicates a Palaeogene diversification of Cycadaceae

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Previous molecular dating studies revealed historical mass extinctions and recent radiations of extant cycads, but debates still exist between palaeobotanists and evolutionary biologists regarding the origin and evolution of Cycadaceae.

METHODS

Using whole plastomic data, we revisited the phylogeny of this family and found the Palawan endemic Cycas clade was strongly related to all lineages from Southeast Eurasia, coinciding with a plate drift event occurring in the Early Oligocene. By integrating fossil and biogeographical calibrations as well as molecular data from protein-coding genes, we established different calibration schemes and tested competing evolutionary timelines of Cycadaceae.

KEY RESULTS

We found recent dispersal cannot explain the distribution of Palawan Cycas, yet the scenario including the tectonic calibration yielded a mean crown age of extant Cycadaceae of ~69-43 million years ago by different tree priors, consistent with multiple Palaeogene fossils assigned to this family. Biogeographical analyses incorporating fossil distributions revealed East Asia as the ancestral area of Cycadaceae.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings challenge the previously proposed Middle-Late Miocene diversification of cycads and an Indochina origin for Cycadaceae and highlight the importance of combining phylogenetic clades, tectonic events and fossils for rebuilding the evolutionary history of lineages that have undergone massive extinctions.

Invasion genomics uncover contrasting scenarios of genetic diversity in a widespread marine invader

Invasion rates have increased in the past 100 y irrespective of international conventions. What characterizes a successful invasion event? And how does genetic diversity translate into invasion success? Employing a whole-genome perspective using one of the most successful marine invasive species world-wide as a model, we resolve temporal invasion dynamics during independent invasion events in Eurasia. We reveal complex regionally independent invasion histories including cases of recurrent translocations, time-limited translocations, and stepping-stone range expansions with severe bottlenecks within the same species. Irrespective of these different invasion dynamics, which lead to contrasting patterns of genetic diversity, all nonindigenous populations are similarly successful. This illustrates that genetic diversity, per se, is not necessarily the driving force behind invasion success. Other factors such as propagule pressure and repeated introductions are an important contribution to facilitate successful invasions. This calls into question the dominant paradigm of the genetic paradox of invasions, i.e., the successful establishment of nonindigenous populations with low levels of genetic diversity.

Independent evolutionary transitions to pueriparity across multiple timescales in the viviparous genus Salamandra

The ability to bear live offspring, viviparity, has evolved multiple times across the tree of life and is a remarkable adaptation with profound life-history and ecological implications. Within amphibians the ancestral reproductive mode is oviparity followed by a larval life stage, but viviparity has evolved independently in all three amphibian orders. Two types of viviparous reproduction can be distinguished in amphibians; larviparity and pueriparity. Larviparous amphibians deliver larvae into nearby ponds and streams, while pueriparous amphibians deliver fully developed juveniles and thus do not require waterbodies for reproduction. Among amphibians, the salamander genus Salamandra is remarkable as it exhibits both inter- and intraspecific variation in the occurrence of larviparity and pueriparity. While the evolutionary relationships among Salamandra lineages have been the focus of several recent studies, our understanding of how often and when transitions between modes occurred is still incomplete. Furthermore, in species with intraspecific variation, the reproductive mode of a given population can only be confirmed by direct observation of births and thus the prevalence of pueriparous populations is also incompletely documented. We used sequence capture to obtain 1,326 loci from 94 individuals from across the geographic range of the genus, focusing on potential reproductive mode transition zones. We also report additional direct observations of pueriparous births for 20 new locations and multiple lineages. We identify at least five independent transitions from the ancestral mode of larviparity to pueriparity among and within species, occurring at different evolutionary timescales ranging from the Pliocene to the Holocene. Four of these transitions occurred within species. Based on a distinct set of markers and analyses, we also confirm previous findings of introgression between species and the need for taxonomic revisions in the genus. We discuss the implications of our findings with respect to the evolution of this complex trait, and the potential of using five independent convergent transitions for further studies on the ecological context in which pueriparity evolves and the genetic architecture of this specialized reproductive mode.

Rewinding the molecular clock in the genus Carabus (Coleoptera: Carabidae) in light of fossil evidence and the Gondwana split: A reanalysis

Molecular clocks have become powerful tools given increasing sequencing and fossil resources. However, calibration analyses outcomes depend on the choice of priors. Here, we revisited the seminal dating study published by Andújar and coworkers of the genus Carabus proposing that prior choices need re-evaluation. We hypothesized that reflecting fossil evidence and the Gondwanan split properly significantly rewinds the molecular clock. We re-used the dataset including five mitochondrial and four nuclear DNA fragments with a total length of 7888 nt. Fossil evidence for Oligocene occurrence of Calosoma was considered. Root age was set based on the fossil evidence of Harpalinae ground beetles in the Upper Cretaceous. Paleogene divergence of the outgroup taxa Ceroglossini and Pamborini is introduced as a new prior based on current paleontological and geological literature. The ultrametric time-calibrated tree of the extended nd5 dataset resulted in a median TMRCA Carabus of 53.92 Ma (HPD 95% 45.01–63.18 Ma), roughly 30 Ma older than in the Andújar study. The splits among C. rugosus and C. morbillosus (A), C. riffensis from the European Mesocarabus (B), and Eurycarabus and Nesaeocarabus (C) were dated to 17.58 (12.87–22.85), 24.14 (18.02–30.58), and 21.6 (16.44–27.43) Ma. They were decidedly older than those previously reported (7.48, 10.93, and 9.51 Ma). These changes were driven almost entirely by constraining the Carabidae time-tree root with a Harpalinae amber fossil at ~99 Ma. Utilizing the nd5 dating results of three well-supported Carabus clades as secondary calibration points for the complete MIT-NUC dataset led to a TMRCA of Carabus of 44.72 (37.54–52.22) Ma, compared with 25.16 Ma (18.41–33.04 Ma) in the previous study. Considering fossil evidence for Oligocene Calosoma and Late Cretaceous Harpalini together with the Gondwanan split as a new prior, our new approach supports the origin of genus Carabus in the Eocene. Our results are preliminary because of the heavy reliance on the nd5 gene, and thus will have to be tested with a sufficient set of nuclear markers. Additionally, uncertainties due to dating root age of the tree based on a single fossil and outgroup taxon affect the results. Improvement of the fossil database, particularly in the supertribe Carabitae, is needed to reduce these uncertainties in dating Carabus phylogeny.

Evolution and dispersal of snakes across the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction

Mass extinctions have repeatedly shaped global biodiversity. The Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction caused the demise of numerous vertebrate groups, and its aftermath saw the rapid diversification of surviving mammals, birds, frogs, and teleost fishes. However, the effects of the K-Pg extinction on the evolution of snakes-a major clade of predators comprising over 3,700 living species-remains poorly understood. Here, we combine an extensive molecular dataset with phylogenetically and stratigraphically constrained fossil calibrations to infer an evolutionary timescale for Serpentes. We reveal a potential diversification among crown snakes associated with the K-Pg mass extinction, led by the successful colonisation of Asia by the major extant clade Afrophidia. Vertebral morphometrics suggest increasing morphological specialisation among marine snakes through the Paleogene. The dispersal patterns of snakes following the K-Pg underscore the importance of this mass extinction event in shaping Earth's extant vertebrate faunas.

The challenge and promise of estimating the de novo mutation rate from whole-genome comparisons among closely related individuals

Germline mutations are the raw material for natural selection, driving species evolution and the generation of earth's biodiversity. Without this driver of genetic diversity, life on earth would stagnate. Yet, it is a double-edged sword. An excess of mutations can have devastating effects on fitness and population viability. It is therefore one of the great challenges of molecular ecology to determine the rate and mechanisms by which these mutations accrue across the tree of life. Advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies are providing new opportunities for characterizing the rates and mutational spectra within species and populations thus informing essential evolutionary parameters such as the timing of speciation events, the intricacies of historical demography, and the degree to which lineages are subject to the burdens of mutational load. Here, we will focus on both the challenge and promise of whole-genome comparisons among parents and their offspring from known pedigrees for the detection of germline mutations as they arise in a single generation. The potential of these studies is high, but the field is still in its infancy and much uncertainty remains. Namely, the technical challenges are daunting given that pedigree-based genome comparisons are essentially searching for needles in a haystack given the very low signal to noise ratio. Despite the challenges, we predict that rapidly developing methods for whole-genome comparisons hold great promise for integrating empirically derived estimates of de novo mutation rates and mutation spectra across many molecular ecological applications.

Adaptive radiation and speciation in Rhipicephalus ticks: A medley of novel hosts, nested predator-prey food webs, off-host periods and dispersal along temperature variation gradients

Rhipicephalus are a species-diverse genus of ticks, mainly distributed in the Afrotropics with some species in the Palearctic and Oriental regions. Current taxonomic consensus comprise nine informal species groups/lineages based on immature morphology. This work integrates biogeographic, ecological and molecular lines of evidence to better understand Rhipicephalus evolution. Phylogenetic analysis based on four genes (12S, 16S, 28S-D2 and COI) recovered five distinct clades with nine descendant clades that are generally congruent with current taxonomy, with some exceptions. Historical biogeography is inferred from molecular divergence times, ancestral distribution areas, host-use and climate niches of four phylogenetically significant bioclimatic variables (isothermality, annual, seasonal and diurnal temperature range). Novel hosts enabled host-linked dispersal events into new environments, and ticks exploited new hosts through nested predator-prey connections in food webs. Diversification was further induced by climate niche partitioning along gradients in temperature range during off-host periods. Ancestral climate niche estimates corroborated dispersal events by indicating hypothetical ancestors moved into environments with different annual and seasonal temperature ranges along latitudinal gradients. Host size for immature and adult life stages was important for dispersal and subsequent diversification rates. Clades that utilise large, mobile hosts (ungulates and carnivores) early in development have wider geographic ranges but slower diversification rates, and those utilising small, less mobile hosts (rodents, lagomorphs and afroinsectivores) early in development have smaller ranges but higher diversification rates. These findings suggest diversification is driven by a complex set of factors linked to both host-associations (host size, ranges and mobility) and climate niche partitioning along annual and seasonal temperature range gradients that vary with latitude. Moreover, competitive interactions can reinforce these processes and drive speciation. Off-host periods facilitate adaptive radiation by enabling host switches along nested predator-prey connections in food webs, but at the cost of environmental exposure that partitions niches among dispersing progenitors, disrupting geneflow and driving diversification. As such, the evolution and ecological niches of Rhipicephalus are characterised by trade-offs between on- and off-host periods, and these trade-offs interact with nested predator-prey connections in food webs, host-use at different life stages, as well as gradients in annual and seasonal temperature ranges to drive adaptive radiation and speciation.

A fossil-calibrated time-tree of all Australian freshwater fishes

Australian freshwater fishes are a relatively species-poor assemblage, mostly comprising groups derived from older repeated freshwater invasions by marine ancestors, plus a small number of Gondwanan lineages. These taxa are both highly endemic and highly threatened, but a comprehensive phylogeny for Australian freshwater fishes is lacking. This has hampered efforts to study their phylogenetic diversity, distribution of extinction risk, speciation rates, and rates of trait evolution. Here, we present a comprehensive dated phylogeny of 412 Australian fishes. We include all formally recognized freshwater species plus a number of genetically distinct subpopulations, species awaiting formal description, and predominantly brackish-water species that sometimes enter fresh water. The phylogeny was inferred using maximum-likelihood analysis of a multilocus data set comprising six mitochondrial and three nuclear genes from 326 taxa. We inferred the evolutionary timescale using penalized likelihood, then used a statistical approach to add 86 taxa for which no molecular data were available. The time-tree inferred in our study will provide a useful resource for macroecological studies of Australian freshwater fishes by enabling corrections for phylogenetic non-independence in evolutionary and ecological comparative analyses.

Ultraconserved Elements Improve the Resolution of Difficult Nodes within the Rapid Radiation of Neotropical Sigmodontine Rodents (Cricetidae: Sigmodontinae)

Sigmodontine rodents (Cricetidae, Sigmodontinae) represent the second largest muroid subfamily and the most species-rich group of New World mammals, encompassing above 410 living species and ca. 87 genera. Even with advances on the clarification of sigmodontine phylogenetic relationships that have been made recently, the phylogenetic relationships among the 12 main group of genera (i.e., tribes) remain poorly resolved, in particular among those forming the large clade Oryzomyalia. This pattern has been interpreted as consequence of a rapid radiation upon the group entrance into South America. Here, we attempted to resolve phylogenetic relationships within Sigmodontinae using target capture and high-throughput sequencing of ultraconserved elements (UCEs). We enriched and sequenced UCEs for 56 individuals and collected data from four already available genomes. Analyses of distinct data sets, based on the capture of 4,634 loci, resulted in a highly resolved phylogeny consistent across different methods. Coalescent species-tree based approaches, concatenated matrices, and Bayesian analyses recovered similar topologies that were congruent at the resolution of difficult nodes. We recovered good support for the intertribal relationships within Oryzomyalia; for instance, the tribe Oryzomyini appears as the sister taxa of the remaining oryzomyalid tribes. The estimates of divergence times agree with results of previous studies. We inferred the crown age of the sigmodontine rodents at the end of Middle Miocene, while the main lineages of Oryzomyalia appear to have radiated in a short interval during the Late Miocene. Thus, the collection of a genomic scale data set with a wide taxonomic sampling, provided resolution for the first time of the relationships among the main lineages of Sigmodontinae. We expect the phylogeny presented here will become the backbone for future systematic and evolutionary studies of the group.

Fossil-calibrated time tree of Podarcis wall lizards provides limited support for biogeographic calibration models

Podarcis wall lizards are endemic to the Mediterranean Basin where they represent the predominant reptile group. Despite being extensively used as model organisms in evolutionary and ecological studies their phylogeny and historical biogeography are still incompletely resolved. Moreover, molecular clock calibrations used in wall lizard phylogeography are based on the assumption of vicariant speciation triggered by the abrupt Mediterranean Sea level rise at the end of the Messinian salinity crisis (MSC). However, the validity of this biogeographic calibration remains untested. In this study we inferred a robust time tree based on multilocus data and fossil calibrations using both gene concatenation and species-tree approaches and including models with gene-flow. We found five deeply divergent, geographically coherent, and well-supported clades comprising species from i) Iberian Peninsula and North Africa; ii) Western Mediterranean islands, iii) Sicilian and Maltese islands; and iv-v) Balkan region and Aegean islands. The mitochondrial tree shows some inconsistencies with the species tree that warrant future investigation. Diversification of main clades is estimated in a short time frame during the Middle Miocene and might have been associated with a period of global climate cooling with the establishment of a marked climatic zonation in Europe. Cladogenetic events within the main clades are scattered throughout the time tree, from the Late Miocene to the Early Pleistocene, suggesting that speciation events in wall lizards reflect a complex interplay between regional topography, climate and geological history rather than a shared major climatic or paleogeographic event. Our absolute time estimates, as well as a relative dating approach, demonstrate that the assumption of a causal link between sea-level rise at the end of the MSC and the diversification of many island endemics is not justified. This study reinforces the notion that multiple dispersal and vicariant events, at different time frames, are required to explain current allopatric distributions and to account for the historical assembly of Mediterranean biota, and cautions against the use of biogeographic calibrations based on the assumption of vicariance.

Mind the Outgroup and Bare Branches in Total-Evidence Dating: a Case Study of Pimpliform Darwin Wasps (Hymenoptera, Ichneumonidae)

Taxon sampling is a central aspect of phylogenetic study design, but it has received limited attention in the context of total-evidence dating, a widely used dating approach that directly integrates molecular and morphological information from extant and fossil taxa. We here assess the impact of commonly employed outgroup sampling schemes and missing morphological data in extant taxa on age estimates in a total-evidence dating analysis under the uniform tree prior. Our study group is Pimpliformes, a highly diverse, rapidly radiating group of parasitoid wasps of the family Ichneumonidae. We analyze a data set comprising 201 extant and 79 fossil taxa, including the oldest fossils of the family from the Early Cretaceous and the first unequivocal representatives of extant subfamilies from the mid-Paleogene. Based on newly compiled molecular data from ten nuclear genes and a morphological matrix that includes 222 characters, we show that age estimates become both older and less precise with the inclusion of more distant and more poorly sampled outgroups. These outgroups not only lack morphological and temporal information but also sit on long terminal branches and considerably increase the evolutionary rate heterogeneity. In addition, we discover an artifact that might be detrimental for total-evidence dating: "bare-branch attraction," namely high attachment probabilities of certain fossils to terminal branches for which morphological data are missing. Using computer simulations, we confirm the generality of this phenomenon and show that a large phylogenetic distance to any of the extant taxa, rather than just older age, increases the risk of a fossil being misplaced due to bare-branch attraction. After restricting outgroup sampling and adding morphological data for the previously attracting, bare branches, we recover a Jurassic origin for Pimpliformes and Ichneumonidae. This first age estimate for the group not only suggests an older origin than previously thought but also that diversification of the crown group happened well before the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. Our case study demonstrates that in order to obtain robust age estimates, total-evidence dating studies need to be based on a thorough and balanced sampling of both extant and fossil taxa, with the aim of minimizing evolutionary rate heterogeneity and missing morphological information. [Bare-branch attraction; ichneumonids; fossils; morphological matrix; phylogeny; RoguePlots.].

Impact of Pleistocene Eustatic Fluctuations on Evolutionary Dynamics in Southeast Asian Biodiversity Hotspots

Pleistocene Climatic Fluctuations (PCF) are frequently highlighted as important evolutionary engines that triggered cycles of biome expansion and contraction. While there is ample evidence of the impact of PCF on biodiversity of continental biomes, the consequences in insular systems depend on the geology of the islands and the ecology of the taxa inhabiting them. The idiosyncratic aspects of insular systems are exemplified by the islands of the Sunda Shelf in Southeast Asia (Sundaland), where PCF-induced eustatic fluctuations had complex interactions with the geology of the region, resulting in high species diversity and endemism. Emergent land in Southeast Asia varied drastically with sea level fluctuations during the Pleistocene. Climate-induced fluctuations in sea level caused temporary connections between insular and continental biodiversity hotspots in Southeast Asia. These exposed lands likely had freshwater drainage systems that extended between modern islands: the Paleoriver Hypothesis. Built upon the assumption that aquatic organisms are among the most suitable models to trace ancient river boundaries and fluctuations of landmass coverage, the present study aims to examine the evolutionary consequences of PCF on the dispersal of freshwater biodiversity in Southeast Asia. Time-calibrated phylogenies of DNA-delimited species were inferred for six species-rich freshwater fish genera in Southeast Asia (Clarias, Channa, Glyptothorax, Hemirhamphodon, Dermogenys, Nomorhamphus). The results highlight rampant cryptic diversity and the temporal localization of most speciation events during the Pleistocene, with 88% of speciation events occurring during this period. Diversification analyses indicate that sea level-dependent diversification models poorly account for species proliferation patterns for all clades excepting Channa. Ancestral area estimations point to Borneo as the most likely origin for most lineages, with two waves of dispersal to Sumatra and Java during the last 5 Myr. Speciation events are more frequently associated with boundaries of the paleoriver watersheds, with 60%, than islands boundaries, with 40%. In total, one-third of speciation events are inferred to have occured within paleorivers on a single island, suggesting that habitat heterogeneity and factors other than allopatry between islands substantially affected diversification of Sundaland fishes. Our results suggest that species proliferation in Sundaland is not wholly reliant on Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations isolating populations on different islands.

The Implications of Lineage-Specific Rates for Divergence Time Estimation

Rate variation adds considerable complexity to divergence time estimation in molecular phylogenies. Here, we evaluate the impact of lineage-specific rates—which we define as among-branch-rate-variation that acts consistently across the entire genome. We compare its impact to residual rates—defined as among-branch-rate-variation that shows a different pattern of rate variation at each sampled locus, and gene-specific rates—defined as variation in the average rate across all branches at each sampled locus. We show that lineage-specific rates lead to erroneous divergence time estimates, regardless of how many loci are sampled. Further, we show that stronger lineage-specific rates lead to increasing error. This contrasts to residual rates and gene-specific rates, where sampling more loci significantly reduces error. If divergence times are inferred in a Bayesian framework, we highlight that error caused by lineage-specific rates significantly reduces the probability that the 95% highest posterior density includes the correct value, and leads to sensitivity to the prior. Use of a more complex rate prior—which has recently been proposed to model rate variation more accurately—does not affect these conclusions. Finally, we show that the scale of lineage-specific rates used in our simulation experiments is comparable to that of an empirical data set for the angiosperm genus Ipomoea. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that lineage-specific rates cause error in divergence time estimates, and that this error is not overcome by analyzing genomic scale multilocus data sets. [Divergence time estimation; error; rate variation.]

Can We Reliably Calibrate Deep Nodes in the Tetrapod Tree? Case Studies in Deep Tetrapod Divergences

Recent efforts have led to the development of extremely sophisticated methods for incorporating tree-wide data and accommodating uncertainty when estimating the temporal patterns of phylogenetic trees, but assignment of prior constraints on node age remains the most important factor. This depends largely on understanding substantive disagreements between specialists (paleontologists, geologists, and comparative anatomists), which are often opaque to phylogeneticists and molecular biologists who rely on these data as downstream users. This often leads to misunderstandings of how the uncertainty associated with node age minima arises, leading to inappropriate treatments of that uncertainty by phylogeneticists. In order to promote dialogue on this subject, we here review factors (phylogeny, preservational megabiases, spatial and temporal patterns in the tetrapod fossil record) that complicate assignment of prior node age constraints for deep divergences in the tetrapod tree, focusing on the origin of crown-group Amniota, crown-group Amphibia, and crown-group Tetrapoda. We find that node priors for amphibians and tetrapods show high phylogenetic lability and different phylogenetic treatments identifying disparate taxa as the earliest representatives of these crown groups. This corresponds partially to the well-known problem of lissamphibian origins but increasingly reflects deeper instabilities in early tetrapod phylogeny. Conversely, differences in phylogenetic treatment do not affect our ability to recognize the earliest crown-group amniotes but do affect how diverse we understand the earliest amniote faunas to be. Preservational megabiases and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the early tetrapod fossil record present unrecognized challenges in reliably estimating the ages of tetrapod nodes; the tetrapod record throughout the relevant interval is spatially restricted and disrupted by several major intervals of minimal sampling coincident with the emergence of all three crown groups. Going forward, researchers attempting to calibrate the ages for these nodes, and other similar deep nodes in the metazoan fossil record, should consciously consider major phylogenetic uncertainty, preservational megabias, and spatiotemporal heterogeneity, preferably examining the impact of working hypotheses from multiple research groups. We emphasize a need for major tetrapod collection effort outside of classic European and North American sections, particularly from the southern hemisphere, and suggest that such sampling may dramatically change our timelines of tetrapod evolution.

Molecular dating for phylogenies containing a mix of populations and species by using Bayesian and RelTime approaches

Simultaneous molecular dating of population and species divergences is essential in many biological investigations, including phylogeography, phylodynamics and species delimitation studies. In these investigations, multiple sequence alignments consist of both intra- and interspecies samples (mixed samples). As a result, the phylogenetic trees contain interspecies, interpopulation and within-population divergences. Bayesian relaxed clock methods are often employed in these analyses, but they assume the same tree prior for both inter- and intraspecies branching processes and require specification of a clock model for branch rates (independent vs. autocorrelated rates models). We evaluated the impact of a single tree prior on Bayesian divergence time estimates by analysing computer-simulated data sets. We also examined the effect of the assumption of independence of evolutionary rate variation among branches when the branch rates are autocorrelated. Bayesian approach with coalescent tree priors generally produced excellent molecular dates and highest posterior densities with high coverage probabilities. We also evaluated the performance of a non-Bayesian method, RelTime, which does not require the specification of a tree prior or a clock model. RelTime's performance was similar to that of the Bayesian approach, suggesting that it is also suitable to analyse data sets containing both populations and species variation when its computational efficiency is needed.

Biogeographic diversification of Mahonia (Berberidaceae): Implications for the origin and evolution of East Asian subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests

The subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests (EBLFs) inhabit large areas of East Asia and harbor rich biodiversity and high endemism. However, the origin and evolution of biodiversity of East Asian subtropical EBLFs remain poorly understood. Here, we used Mahonia (Berberidaceae), an eastern Asian-western North American disjunct evergreen genus, to obtain new insights into the historical assembly of this biome. We present the most comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of Mahonia do date based on six nuclear and plastid loci. Using the phylogenetic framework, we estimated divergence times, reconstructed ancestral ranges, inferred evolutionary shift of habitats, and estimated diversification rates. Mahonia and each of its two groups (Orientales and Occidentales) are strongly supported as monophyletic. Mahonia originated in western North America during the late Eocene (c. 40.41 Ma) and subsequently dispersed into East Asia prior to the early Oligocene (c. 32.65 Ma). The North Atlantic Land Bridge might have played an important role in population exchanges of Mahonia between East Asia and western North America. The western North American Occidentales began to diversify in summer-dry climates and open landscapes in the early Miocene, whereas the eastern Asian Orientales began to diversify in subtropical EBLFs in the early Miocene and furthermore had a rapid lineage accumulation since the late Miocene. The net diversification rate of Mahonia in eastern Asia appeared to be higher than that in western North America, which is ascribed to lower extinction rates and ecological opportunity. Our findings suggest that western North America is a source of biodiversity of East Asian subtropical EBLFs. This biome in eastern Asia began to rise in the early Miocene and further diversified in the late Miocene, driven by the intensifying East Asian summer monsoon during these two periods.

Performance of A Priori and A Posteriori Calibration Strategies in Divergence Time Estimation

Relaxed molecular clock methods allow the use of genomic data to estimate divergence times across the tree of life. This is most commonly achieved in Bayesian analyses where the molecular clock is calibrated a priori through the integration of fossil information. Alternatively, fossil calibrations can be used a posteriori, to transform previously estimated relative divergence times that were inferred without considering fossil information, into absolute divergence times. However, as branch length is the product of the rate of evolution and the duration in time of the considered branch, the extent to which a posteriori calibrated, relative divergence time methods can disambiguate time and rate, is unclear. Here, we use forward evolutionary simulations and compare a priori and a posteriori calibration strategies using different molecular clock methods and models. Specifically, we compare three Bayesian methods, the strict clock, uncorrelated clock and autocorrelated clock, and the non-Bayesian algorithm implemented in RelTime. We simulate phylogenies with multiple, independent substitution rate changes and show that correct timescales cannot be inferred without the use of calibrations. Under our simulation conditions, a posteriori calibration strategies almost invariably inferred incorrect rate changes and divergence times. The a priori integration of fossil calibrations is fundamental in these cases to improve the accuracy of the estimated divergence times. Relative divergence times and absolute timescales derived by calibrating relative timescales to geological time a posteriori appear to be less reliable than a priori calibrated, timescales.

Counterbalancing the time-dependent effect on the human mitochondrial DNA molecular clock

BACKGROUND

The molecular clock is an important genetic tool for estimating evolutionary timescales. However, the detection of a time-dependent effect on substitution rate estimates complicates its application. It has been suggested that demographic processes could be the main cause of this confounding effect. In the present study, I propose a new algorithm for estimating the coalescent age of phylogenetically related sequences, taking into account the observed time-dependent effect on the molecular rate detected by others.

RESULTS

By applying this method to real human mitochondrial DNA trees with shallow and deep topologies, I obtained significantly older molecular ages for the main events of human evolution than were previously estimated. These ages are in close agreement with the most recent archaeological and paleontological records favoring the emergence of early anatomically modern humans in Africa 315 ± 34 thousand years ago (kya) and the presence of recent modern humans outside of Africa as early as 174 ± 48 thousand years ago. Furthermore, during the implementation process, I demonstrated that in a population with fluctuating sizes, the probability of fixation of a new neutral mutant depends on the effective population size, which is in better accordance with the fact that under the neutral theory of molecular evolution, the fate of a molecular mutation is mainly determined by random drift.

CONCLUSIONS

I suggest that the demographic history of populations has a more decisive effect than purifying selection and/or mutational saturation on the time-dependent effect observed for the substitution rate, and I propose a new method that corrects for this effect.

Heterogeneity in the rate of molecular sequence evolution substantially impacts the accuracy of detecting shifts in diversification rates

As species richness varies along the tree of life, there is a great interest in identifying factors that affect the rates by which lineages speciate or go extinct. To this end, theoretical biologists have developed a suite of phylogenetic comparative methods that aim to identify where shifts in diversification rates had occurred along a phylogeny and whether they are associated with some traits. Using these methods, numerous studies have predicted that speciation and extinction rates vary across the tree of life. In this study, we show that asymmetric rates of sequence evolution lead to systematic biases in the inferred phylogeny, which in turn lead to erroneous inferences regarding lineage diversification patterns. The results demonstrate that as the asymmetry in sequence evolution rates increases, so does the tendency to select more complicated models that include the possibility of diversification rate shifts. These results thus suggest that any inference regarding shifts in diversification pattern should be treated with great caution, at least until any biases regarding the molecular substitution rate have been ruled out.

Phylogenomics indicates the "living fossil" Isoetes diversified in the Cenozoic

The fossil record provides an invaluable insight into the temporal origins of extant lineages of organisms. However, establishing the relationships between fossils and extant lineages can be difficult in groups with low rates of morphological change over time. Molecular dating can potentially circumvent this issue by allowing distant fossils to act as calibration points, but rate variation across large evolutionary scales can bias such analyses. In this study, we apply multiple dating methods to genome-wide datasets to infer the origin of extant species of Isoetes, a group of mostly aquatic and semi-aquatic isoetalean lycopsids, which closely resemble fossil forms dating back to the Triassic. Rate variation observed in chloroplast genomes hampers accurate dating, but genome-wide nuclear markers place the origin of extant diversity within this group in the mid-Paleogene, 45-60 million years ago. Our genomic analyses coupled with a careful evaluation of the fossil record indicate that despite resembling forms from the Triassic, extant Isoetes species do not represent the remnants of an ancient and widespread group, but instead have spread around the globe in the relatively recent past.

Deep mitochondrial DNA phylogeographic divergence in the threatened aoudad Ammotragus lervia (Bovidae, Caprini)

The aoudad or Barbary sheep (Ammotragus lervia) is a threatened ungulate emblematic of North Africa, whose population structure and subspecific taxonomy have not been examined genetically. This knowledge is essential and urgently needed to inform ongoing conservation and management efforts. We analysed the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and four nuclear genes (casein kappa, spectrin beta nonerythrocytic 1, thyroglobulin, thyrotropin subunit beta) for the first phylogeographic survey of the aoudad, and uncovered a deep Mediterranean-Saharan mitochondrial split separating two highly distinct evolutionary lineages. Their level of divergence is greater than or comparable to those observed between several pairs of congeneric species of different caprine genera. The split was estimated to have occurred in the Early Pleistocene, about 1.3 million years ago. None of the four nuclear genes surveyed, chosen because they have been used in phylogeographic and species-level phylogenetic studies of bovids, allowed us to detect, likely due to their slow evolutionary rate, the substantial and geographically coherent subdivision revealed by mitochondrial DNA. This study is evidence and testament to the ability of mitochondrial DNA, probably unrivalled by any other single-locus marker, as an exploratory tool for investigating population genealogy and history and identifying potential evolutionarily significant units for conservation in animals.

The fossil record of spiders revisited: implications for calibrating trees and evidence for a major faunal turnover since the Mesozoic

Studies in evolutionary biology and biogeography increasingly rely on the estimation of dated phylogenetic trees using molecular clocks. In turn, the calibration of such clocks is critically dependent on external evidence (i.e. fossils) anchoring the ages of particular nodes to known absolute ages. In recent years, a plethora of new fossil spiders, especially from the Mesozoic, have been described, while the number of studies presenting dated spider phylogenies based on fossil calibrations increased sharply. We critically evaluate 44 of these studies, which collectively employed 67 unique fossils in 180 calibrations. Approximately 54% of these calibrations are problematic, particularly regarding unsupported assignment of fossils to extant clades (44%) and crown (rather than stem) dating (9%). Most of these cases result from an assumed equivalence between taxonomic placement of fossils and their phylogenetic position. To overcome this limitation, we extensively review the literature on fossil spiders, with a special focus on putative synapomorphies and the phylogenetic placement of fossil species with regard to their importance for calibrating higher taxa (families and above) in the spider tree of life. We provide a curated list including 41 key fossils intended to be a basis for future estimations of dated spider phylogenies. In a second step, we use a revised set of 23 calibrations to estimate a new dated spider tree of life based on transcriptomic data. The revised placement of key fossils and the new calibrated tree are used to resolve a long-standing debate in spider evolution - we tested whether there has been a major turnover in the spider fauna between the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. At least 17 (out of 117) extant families have been recorded from the Cretaceous, implying that at least 41 spider lineages in the family level or above crossed the Cretaeous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary. The putative phylogenetic affinities of families known only from the Mesozoic suggest that at least seven Cretaceous families appear to have no close living relatives and might represent extinct lineages. There is no unambiguous fossil evidence of the retrolateral tibial apophysis clade (RTA-clade) in the Mesozoic, although molecular clock analyses estimated the major lineages within this clade to be at least ∼100 million years old. Our review of the fossil record supports a major turnover showing that the spider faunas in the Mesozoic and the Cenozoic are very distinct at high taxonomic levels, with the Mesozoic dominated by Palpimanoidea and Synspermiata, while the Cenozoic is dominated by Araneoidea and RTA-clade spiders.

Accounting for Uncertainty in the Evolutionary Timescale of Green Plants Through Clock-Partitioning and Fossil Calibration Strategies

Establishing an accurate evolutionary timescale for green plants (Viridiplantae) is essential to understanding their interaction and coevolution with the Earth's climate and the many organisms that rely on green plants. Despite being the focus of numerous studies, the timing of the origin of green plants and the divergence of major clades within this group remain highly controversial. Here, we infer the evolutionary timescale of green plants by analyzing 81 protein-coding genes from 99 chloroplast genomes, using a core set of 21 fossil calibrations. We test the sensitivity of our divergence-time estimates to various components of Bayesian molecular dating, including the tree topology, clock models, clock-partitioning schemes, rate priors, and fossil calibrations. We find that the choice of clock model affects date estimation and that the independent-rates model provides a better fit to the data than the autocorrelated-rates model. Varying the rate prior and tree topology had little impact on age estimates, with far greater differences observed among calibration choices and clock-partitioning schemes. Our analyses yield date estimates ranging from the Paleoproterozoic to Mesoproterozoic for crown-group green plants, and from the Ediacaran to Middle Ordovician for crown-group land plants. We present divergence-time estimates of the major groups of green plants that take into account various sources of uncertainty. Our proposed timeline lays the foundation for further investigations into how green plants shaped the global climate and ecosystems, and how embryophytes became dominant in terrestrial environments.

Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited

The need for robust estimates of times of divergence is essential for downstream analyses, yet assessing this robustness is still rare. We generated a time-calibrated genus-level phylogeny of butterflies (Papilionoidea), including 994 taxa, up to 10 gene fragments and an unprecedented set of 12 fossils and 10 host-plant node calibration points. We compared marginal priors and posterior distributions to assess the relative importance of the former on the latter. This approach revealed a strong influence of the set of priors on the root age but for most calibrated nodes posterior distributions shifted from the marginal prior, indicating significant information in the molecular data set. Using a very conservative approach we estimated an origin of butterflies at 107.6 Ma, approximately equivalent to the latest Early Cretaceous, with a credibility interval ranging from 89.5 Ma (mid Late Cretaceous) to 129.5 Ma (mid Early Cretaceous). In addition, we tested the effects of changing fossil calibration priors, tree prior, different sets of calibrations and different sampling fractions but our estimate remained robust to these alternative assumptions. With 994 genera, this tree provides a comprehensive source of secondary calibrations for studies on butterflies.

Variable Molecular Markers for the Order Mantophasmatodea (Insecta)

The recently discovered insect order Mantophasmatodea currently comprises 19 Southern African species. These mainly occur in allopatry, have high levels of color polymorphism and communicate via species- and gender-specific vibratory signals. High levels of interspecific morphological conservatism mean that cryptic species are likely to be uncovered. These aspects of Mantophasmatodean biology make them an ideal group in which to investigate population divergence due to habitat-specific adaptation, sexual selection, and potentially sensory speciation. Lack of appropriate genetic markers has thus far rendered such studies unfeasible. To address this need, the first microsatellite loci for this order were developed. Fifty polymorphic loci were designed specifically for Karoophasma biedouwense (Austrophasmatidae), out of which 23 were labeled and tested for amplification across the order using 2-3 individuals from 10 species, representing all 4 currently known families. A Bayesian mitochondrially encoded cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) topology was reconstructed and divergence dates within the order were estimated for the first time. Amplification success and levels of polymorphism were compared with genetic divergence and time since divergence. In agreement with studies on vertebrate taxa, both amplification and variability were negatively correlated with distance (temporal and genetic). The high number of informative loci will offer sufficient resolution for both broad level population genetic analysis and individual based pedigree or parentage analyses for most species in Austrophasmatidae, with at least some loci available for the other families. This resource will facilitate research into the evolutionary biology of this understudied but fascinating group.

East African cichlid lineages (Teleostei: Cichlidae) might be older than their ancient host lakes: new divergence estimates for the east African cichlid radiation

BACKGROUND

Cichlids are a prime model system in evolutionary research and several of the most prominent examples of adaptive radiations are found in the East African Lakes Tanganyika, Malawi and Victoria, all part of the East African cichlid radiation (EAR). In the past, great effort has been invested in reconstructing the evolutionary and biogeographic history of cichlids (Teleostei: Cichlidae). In this study, we present new divergence age estimates for the major cichlid lineages with the main focus on the EAR based on a dataset encompassing representative taxa of almost all recognized cichlid tribes and ten mitochondrial protein genes. We have thoroughly re-evaluated both fossil and geological calibration points, and we included the recently described fossil †Tugenchromis pickfordi in the cichlid divergence age estimates.

RESULTS

Our results estimate the origin of the EAR to Late Eocene/Early Oligocene (28.71 Ma; 95% HPD: 24.43-33.15 Ma). More importantly divergence ages of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of several Tanganyika cichlid tribes were estimated to be substantially older than the oldest estimated maximum age of the Lake Tanganyika: Trematocarini (16.13 Ma, 95% HPD: 11.89-20.46 Ma), Bathybatini (20.62 Ma, 95% HPD: 16.88-25.34 Ma), Lamprologini (15.27 Ma; 95% HPD: 12.23-18.49 Ma). The divergence age of the crown haplochromine H-lineage is estimated to 22.8 Ma (95% HPD: 14.40-26.32 Ma) and of the Lake Malawi radiation to 4.07 Ma (95% HDP: 2.93-5.26 Ma). In addition, we recovered a novel lineage within the Lamprologini tribe encompassing only Lamprologus of the lower and central Congo drainage with its divergence estimated to the Late Miocene or early Pliocene. Furthermore we recovered two novel mitochondrial haplotype lineages within the Haplochromini tribe: 'Orthochromis' indermauri and 'Haplochormis' vanheusdeni.

CONCLUSIONS

Divergence time estimates of the MRCA of several Tanganyika cichlid tribes predate the age of the extant Lake Tanganyika basin, and hence are in line with the recently formulated "Melting-Pot Tanganyika" hypothesis. The radiation of the 'Lower Congo Lamprologus clade' might be linked with the Pliocene origin of the modern lower Congo rapids as has been shown for other Lower Congo cichlid assemblages. Finally, the age of origin of the Lake Malawi cichlid flock agrees well with the oldest age estimate for lacustrine conditions in Lake Malawi.

Comparison of Methods for Molecular Species Delimitation Across a Range of Speciation Scenarios

Species are fundamental units in biological research and can be defined on the basis of various operational criteria. There has been growing use of molecular approaches for species delimitation. Among the most widely used methods, the generalized mixed Yule-coalescent (GMYC) and Poisson tree processes (PTP) were designed for the analysis of single-locus data but are often applied to concatenations of multilocus data. In contrast, the Bayesian multispecies coalescent approach in the software Bayesian Phylogenetics and Phylogeography (BPP) explicitly models the evolution of multilocus data. In this study, we compare the performance of GMYC, PTP, and BPP using synthetic data generated by simulation under various speciation scenarios. We show that in the absence of gene flow, the main factor influencing the performance of these methods is the ratio of population size to divergence time, while number of loci and sample size per species have smaller effects. Given appropriate priors and correct guide trees, BPP shows lower rates of species overestimation and underestimation, and is generally robust to various potential confounding factors except high levels of gene flow. The single-threshold GMYC and the best strategy that we identified in PTP generally perform well for scenarios involving more than a single putative species when gene flow is absent, but PTP outperforms GMYC when fewer species are involved. Both methods are more sensitive than BPP to the effects of gene flow and potential confounding factors. Case studies of bears and bees further validate some of the findings from our simulation study, and reveal the importance of using an informed starting point for molecular species delimitation. Our results highlight the key factors affecting the performance of molecular species delimitation, with potential benefits for using these methods within an integrative taxonomic framework.