Why should population attributable fractions be periodically recalculated? An example from cardiovascular risk estimation in southern Europe

Polyvascular Subclinical Atherosclerosis: Correlation Between Ankle Brachial Index and Carotid Atherosclerosis in a Population-Based Sample

We assessed the correlation between the biomarkers of lower limb atherosclerosis (eg, ankle-brachial index [ABI]) and of carotid atherosclerosis (eg, common carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and presence of atherosclerotic plaque) in a population-based cohort from Girona (Northwest Spain) recruited in 2010. Ankle-brachial index and carotid ultrasound were performed in all participants. Generalized additive multivariable models were used to adjust a regression model of common carotid IMT on ABI. Logistic regression multivariable models were adjusted to assess the probability of carotid plaque in individuals with peripheral artery disease. We included 3307 individuals (54.2% women), mean age 60 years (standard deviation 11). Two patterns of association were observed between subclinical biomarkers of atherosclerosis at the lower limb and carotid artery. Ankle-brachial index and common carotid IMT showed a linear trend in men [beta coefficient (95% confidence interval) =-.068 (-.123; -.012); P = .016]. Women with peripheral artery disease presented with high risk of atherosclerotic plaque at the carotid artery [Odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 2.61, (1.46; 4.69); P = .001]. Men showed a significant linear association between ABI levels and common carotid IMT values. Women with peripheral artery disease presented with high risk of atherosclerotic plaque at the carotid artery.

Long-term effects of maternal resveratrol intake during lactation on cholesterol metabolism in male rat offspring

Resveratrol (RSV) can protect against non-communicable diseases by improving cholesterol metabolism. However, it is unclear that effects of maternal RSV intake on health of adult offspring. In this study, we examined effects of maternal RSV intake during lactation on cholesterol metabolism in adult male rat offspring. Female Wistar rats were fed a control diet (CON) supplemented with or without RSV (20 mg/kg body weight/day) during their lactation period. Male offspring were weaned onto a standard diet and maintained on this diet for 36 weeks. As a result, plasma cholesterol level significantly decreased in RSV offspring compared to CON offspring. Furthermore, a decrease in hepatic 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase level and an increase in hepatic LDL-receptor level were observed in the RSV offspring. These results indicate that maternal RSV intake causes long-term decrease in plasma cholesterol level in the offspring through suppression of hepatic cholesterol biosynthesis and promotion of hepatic cholesterol uptake.

Population attributable fraction of leading non-communicable cardiovascular diseases due to leisure-time physical inactivity: a systematic review

Objective

The aim of this systematic review was to investigate the methods used for estimating the population attributable fraction (PAF) to leisure-time physical inactivity (PI) of coronary artery diseases, hypertension and stroke in order to provide the best available estimate for PAF.

Design

Systematic review.

Data sources

Four electronic databases (MEDLINE/PubMed, EMBASE, SPORTDiscus, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature) were searched from inception to August 2018.

Eligibility criteria for selecting studies

This review included prospective cohort studies, with men and women aged ≥18 years old, investigating the PAF attributable to leisure-time PI related to coronary artery diseases, hypertension and stroke.

Results

The PAF estimates of the three studies included were 13% (3%–22%) for ‘stage-1 hypertension’ subtype incidence due to ‘non-regular exercise’; 25% (10.4%–35.8%) for ‘stage-2 hypertension’ subtype incidence due to ‘activity of daily living’ and ‘vigorous-intensity sports’; and 8.5% (1.7%–16.7%) for ‘total: fatal and non-fatal’ cardiovascular events of ‘incidence and mortality’ endpoints due to non-accumulation of 550 kcal/week (subsets not specified).

Conclusions

The PAF estimate exhibited a protective dose–response relationship between hypertension and an increased amount of energy expenditure of leisure-time PI. In order to enhance accuracy of PAF estimates, the following steps are recommended: (1) to clearly define and state the working definition of leisure-time PI and dose using a reliable and valid objective measurement tool; (2) use a clear definition of outcome subtypes and endpoints using reliable and valid objective measures; and (3) estimate PAF using modelling techniques based on prospective data and ensuring to report 95% CI.

[Impact of cardiovascular risk factors in the Extremadura population: HERMEX cohort contributions for a preventive strategy]

OBJECTIVE

To determine the population attributable fraction (PAF) of the major risk factors (RF) for the occurrence of cardiovascular disease in an Extremadura population cohort and therefore recommend priority preventive measures in health.

METHODS

Design, Cohort study.

LOCATION

Representative population sample of a health area of Extremadura (Spain) PARTICIPANTS: 2833 individuals, from 25 to 79 years old, randomly selected and recruited between 2007 and 2009. Antecedents and clinical parameters were recorded, a follow up until December 31, 2015 were done.

MEASUREMENTS

Explanatory variables: Age, sex, obesity, current smoking, arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypercholesterolemia.

OUTCOME VARIABLE

First event of the combined variable of myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, stroke, peripheral arterial disease and cardiovascular death. Fully adjusted hazard ratios (HR) were calculated by Cox regression. The PAFs were calculated using Levin's formula.

RESULTS

2669 subjects were included, 103 had history of cardiovascular disease and 61 were lost. The follow-up was 6.9 years (IR 6.5-7.5). 134 events were recorded. Incidence rate 7.42/1,000 people-year. Adjusted HR (95% CI) were: hypertension 2.26 (1.40-3.67), hypercholesterolemia 2.23 (1.56-3.18), DM 1.79 (1.24-2.58) and current smoking 1.72 (1.11-2.69). The PAF (95% CI) were: hypertension: 31.1 (12.4-48.8), hypercholesterolemia 27.0% (14.8-40.6), smoking 18.8% (3.3-35.0) and DM 7.9% (2.6-15.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Hypertension confers the greatest burden of cardiovascular disease in the population of Extremadura, followed by hypercholesterolemia and smoking. These RF are priority objectives for a population-based preventive strategy.

Hospital Mortality in 415 798 AMI Patients: 4 Years Earlier in the Canary Islands Than in the Rest of Spain

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

The Canary Islands has the highest mortality from diabetes in Spain. The aim of this study was to determine possible differences in mortality due to acute myocardial infarction (AMI) during hospital admission between this autonomous community and the rest of Spain, as well as the factors associated with this mortality and the population fraction attributable to diabetes.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study of hospital admissions for AMI in Spain from 2007 to 2014, registered in the Minimum Basic Data Set.

RESULTS

A total of 415 798 AMI were identified. Canary Island patients (16 317) were younger than those living in the rest of Spain (63.93 ± 13.56 vs 68.25 ± 13.94; P < .001) and death occurred 4 years earlier in the archipelago (74.03 ± 11.85 vs 78.38 ± 11.10; P < .001). This autonomous community had the highest prevalence of smoking (44% in men and 23% in women); throughout Spain, AMI occurred 13 years earlier in smokers than in nonsmokers. Patients in the Canary Islands had the highest mortality rates whether they had diabetes (8.7%) or not (7.6%), and they also showed the highest fraction of AMI mortality attributable to diabetes (9.4; 95%CI, 4.8-13.6). After adjustment for type of AMI, diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, smoking, cocaine use, renal failure, sex and age, the Canary Islands showed the highest risk of mortality vs the rest of Spain (OR = 1.25; 95%CI, 1.17-1.33; P < .001) and it was one of the autonomous communities showing no significant improvement in the risk of mortality due to AMI during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality due to AMI during hospital admission is higher in the Canary Islands than in the rest of Spain.

Clinical Profile and Changes of Serum Lipid Levels in Epileptic Patients after Cerebral Infarction

BACKGROUND

Antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) may increase development of dyslipidemia and cerebrovascular disease (CVD). We examined the clinical profile and changes of serum lipid levels after AED monotherapy in patients with poststroke epilepsy (PSE) after cerebral infarction (CI).

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Medical records were reviewed in consecutive 2144 CI patients. Monotherapy of valproate, carbamazepine (CBZ), phenytoin (PHT), zonisamide, levetiracetam, or lamotrigine was performed in PSE patients. Serum lipid levels were measured before and at 3 months after AED treatment.

RESULTS

The prevalence of PSE was 7.0% in CI patients. The TOAST etiology disclosed large-artery atherosclerosis in 68 patients (45%), cardioembolism in 63 patients (42%), and undetermined cause in 19 patients (13%). CVD risk profile showed obesity of 18 patients (12%), current smoker of 30 patients (20%), hypertension of 75 patients (50%), diabetes mellitus of 32 patients (21%), dyslipidemia of 15 patients (10%), and atrial fibrillation of 63 patients (42%). CBZ or PHT administration increased serum total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) levels significantly compared to baseline and AED-untreated controls. Those levels were not increased significantly in other AED and control groups. Serum high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and triglyceride levels did not differ statistically in all groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of post-CI epilepsy was 7.0%. The pathogenesis contributed to atherothrombosis and cardioembolism. CBZ or PHT administration increased serum TC and LDL-C significantly. Thus, we should pay more attention to serum lipid levels in patients receiving cytochrome P450 (CYP)-induced AEDs, and might considerer switching to non-CYP-induced AEDs in patients with unfavorable serum lipid changes.

Risk of hypercholesterolemia for cardiovascular disease and the population attributable fraction in a 24-year Japanese cohort study

AIMS

The population-attributable fraction (PAF) is an indicator of the disease burden. In Western countries, the PAF of hypercholesterolemia in cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the highest among that for traditional risk factors; however, data for Asian populations are limited.

METHODS

A 24-year cohort study was conducted among 9,209 randomly selected participants who were not taking statins. We estimated the hazard ratio (HR) after adjusting for covariates and PAF associated with the serum total cholesterol (TC) levels in relation to CVD mortality.

RESULTS

The TC level was found to be positively associated with an increased risk of CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiac death (CHD plus heart failure), with an HR of 1.08 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00-1.16), 1.33 (95% CI: 1.14-1.55) and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.08-1.35) for a 1-SD increment in the serum TC level, respectively. Similar positive associations between the TC level and both CHD and cardiac death were observed after classifying the patients by age and sex. Furthermore, the highest serum TC level (≥ 6.72 mmol/L) was positively associated with CVD death, with an HR of 1.76 (95% CI: 1.25-2.47), as well as both CHD death and cardiac death. In contrast, no significant relationships were observed between the serum TC level and stroke. Meanwhile, the PAF for CVD, CHD, and cardiac deaths due to hypercholesterolemia (serum TC level ≥ 5.69 mmol/L, defined by the Japan Atherosclerosis Society) was 1.7%, 10.6% and 5.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated PAF of CVD death due to hypercholesterolemia is moderately high, but lower than that for other risk factors, such as hypertension.

Differential patterns of effects of age and sex on metabolic syndrome in Taiwan: implication for the inadequate internal consistency of the current criteria

AIMS

Current criteria of metabolic syndrome (MetS) give equal weight to each component and apply mostly the same cut-off values to all ages. The contribution of each component to MetS and the effects of age and sex on each component and MetS were explored.

METHODS

We carried out a survey on residents aged 40-74 years of the northern coastal area of Taiwan. The prevalent rates of MetS in 646 males and 961 females were 32.4% and 27.8%, respectively. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess the main and interactive effects of age and sex. The Cronbach's α coefficient was calculated as the indicator of internal consistency of MetS components.

RESULTS

There were significant age trends for MetS components, except for low HDL-C in both sexes and high fasting triglyceride in males. Logistic regression analyses showed that the effects of age and sex on MetS and its component were all different. The age-sex-specific Cronbach's α coefficients for MetS ranged from 0.43 to 0.61. The age trends of the coefficients in males and females were opposite. The exclusion of some components from the MetS resulted in an increase of the coefficients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that the internal consistency of MetS was questionable. It seems that the currently defined MetS components of MetS did not formulate a single pathophysiological entity. Given equal weight to each component and used the same cut-off values for the subjects of all age groups in both sexes need to be reconsidered.

Validation of a population coronary disease predictive system: the CASSANDRA model

BACKGROUND

The use of validated multivariate cardiovascular predictive models in a population setting is of interest for public health policy makers. We aimed to validate the estimations of the CASSANDRA model (coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence and CHD risk distribution), considering the population changes in age, sex and CHD risk factors prevalence in a 10-year period.

METHODS

We compared the projected CHD incidence estimated with CASSANDRA with that observed in the Girona Heart Registry (REGICOR) for 1995-2004 and 2000-2009 in the population of Girona (Spain) aged 35-74 years. We used official age and sex distributions for this population. Baseline cardiovascular risk factors prevalence and the distribution of cardiovascular risk were obtained from three cross-sectional studies performed in 1995, 2000 and 2005. To validate the future distribution of cardiovascular risk, we tested the yearly CHD risk variance over the study period.

RESULTS

No significant differences between the estimated and observed annual CHD incidence per 100 000 men were found in 1995-2004 (CASSANDRA=457.8 and REGICOR=420.3, incidence rate ratio (IRR) (95% CI)=0.92 (0.89 to 0.96)) and in 2000-2009 (441.4 and 409.6, respectively, IRR=0.93 (0.90 to 0.96)). However, overpredictions of 18% and 22%, respectively, were observed in women (198.8 and 160.4, IRR=0.82 (0.77 to 0.86), and 197.1 and 152.8, IRR=0.78 (0.74 to 0.83), respectively). No significant differences were found in the CHD risk variance in the three different cross-sectional studies.

CONCLUSIONS

The CASSANDRA model produces valid estimates, particularly in men, of the future burden of disease and in the distribution of cardiovascular risk in individuals aged 35-74 years.

Prevalence of obesity and associated cardiovascular risk: the DARIOS study

Background

To estimate the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the Spanish population as measured with body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist to height ratio (WHtR) and to determine the associated cardiovascular risk factors.

Methods

Pooled analysis with individual data from 11 studies conducted in the first decade of the 21st century. Participants aged 35–74 years were asked about the history of cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia. Height, weight, WC, blood pressure, glycaemia, total cholesterol, low-density and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and coronary risk were measured. The prevalence of overweight (BMI 25–29.9 kg/m²), general obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m²), suboptimal WC (≥ 80 cm and < 88 in women, ≥ 94 and < 102 in men), abdominal obesity (WC ≥88 cm ≥102 cm in women and men, respectively) and WHtR ≥0.5 was estimated, standardized for the European population.

Results

We included 28,743 individuals. The prevalence of overweight and suboptimal WC was 51% and 30% in men and 36% and 22% in women, respectively; general obesity was 28% in both sexes and abdominal obesity 36% in men and 55% in women. The prevalence of WHtR ≥0.5 was 89% and 77% in men and women, respectively. All cardiovascular risk factors were significantly associated with abnormal increased values of BMI, WC and WHtR. Hypertension showed the strongest association with overweight [OR = 1.99 (95% confidence interval 1.81-2.21) and OR = 2.10 (1.91-2.31)]; suboptimal WC [OR = 1.78 (1.60-1.97) and OR = 1.45 (1.26-1.66)], with general obesity [OR = 4.50 (4.02-5.04), and OR = 5.20 (4.70-5.75)] and with WHtR ≥0.5 [OR = 2.94 (2.52-3.43), and OR = 3.02 (2.66-3.42)] in men and women respectively, besides abdominal obesity in men only [OR = 3.51 (3.18-3.88)]. Diabetes showed the strongest association with abdominal obesity in women [OR = 3,86 (3,09-4,89).

Conclusions

The prevalence of obesity in Spain was high. Overweight, suboptimal WC, general, abdominal obesity and WHtR ≥0.5 was significantly associated with diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and coronary risk. The use of lower cut-off points for both BMI and particularly WC and could help to better identify the population at risk and therefore achieve more effective preventive measures.

Cardiovascular risk factors attributable to obesity and overweight in Switzerland

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Obesity increases the risk for cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), including hypertension, dyslipidaemia and type 2 diabetes. In this study, we assessed the burden of overweight and obesity on CVRFs in Switzerland, using Swiss-specific population attributable fractions (PAFs).

METHODS AND RESULTS

The number of cases of CVRFs that could have been prevented if the increase in overweight and obesity in Switzerland had been contained was estimated using gender-specific, age- and smoking-adjusted PAFs for overweight and obesity. PAFs were estimated from the Swiss Health Survey 2007 (self-reported) and the CoLaus study (measured) data. PAFs from self-reported were lower than from measured data. Using measured data, overweight and obesity contributed to 38% of hypertension cases in men (32% in women). In men, overweight had a larger impact than obesity (22.2% and 15.6%, respectively), while the opposite was observed for women (13.6% and 18.1%, respectively). In men, 37% of dyslipidaemia (30% in women) could be attributed to overweight and obesity; overweight had a higher contribution than obesity in both sexes. In men, 57% of type 2 diabetes (62% in women) was attributable to overweight and obesity; obesity had a larger impact than overweight in both sexes. Overall, approximately 27,000 cases of type 2 diabetes, 63,000 cases of high blood pressure and 37,000 cases of dyslipidaemia could have been avoided if overweight and obesity levels were maintained at 1992 levels.

CONCLUSION

A large proportion of CVRFs is attributable to overweight and/or obesity and could have been prevented by containing the overweight/obesity epidemic.

Differences between HIV-infected and uninfected adults in the contributions of smoking, diabetes and hypertension to acute coronary syndrome: two parallel case-control studies

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to assess the separate contributions of smoking, diabetes and hypertension to acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in HIV-infected adults relative to uninfected adults.

METHODS

Two parallel case-control studies were carried out. In the first study, HIV-positive adults diagnosed with ACS between 1997 and 2009 (HIV+/ACS) were matched for age, gender and known duration of HIV infection with HIV-positive adults without ACS (HIV+/noACS), each individual in the HIV+/ACS group being matched with three individuals in the HIV+/noACS group. In the second study, each individual in the HIV+/ACS group in the first study was matched for age, gender and calendar date of ACS diagnosis with three HIV-negative individuals diagnosed with ACS between 1997 and 2009 (HIV-/ACS). Each individual in the HIV-/ACS group was then matched for age and gender with an HIV-negative adult without ACS (HIV-/noACS). After matching, the ratio of numbers of individuals in the HIV+/ACS, HIV+/noACS, HIV-/ACS and HIV-/noACS groups was therefore 1 : 3 : 3 : 3, respectively. We performed logistic regression analyses to identify risk factors for ACS in each case-control study and calculated population attributable risks (PARs) for smoking, diabetes and hypertension in HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals.

RESULTS

There were 57 subjects in the HIV+/ACS group, 173 in the HIV+/noACS group, 168 in the HIV-/ACS group, and 171 in the HIV-/noACS group. Independent risk factors for ACS were smoking [odds ratio (OR) 4.091; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.086-8.438; P < 0.0001] and a family history of cardiovascular disease (OR 7.676; 95% CI 1.976-32.168; P = 0.0003) in HIV-positive subjects, and smoking (OR 4.310; 95% CI 2.425-7.853; P < 0.0001), diabetes (OR 5.778; 95% CI 2.393-15.422; P = 0.0002) and hypertension (OR 6.589; 95% CI 3.554-12.700; P < 0.0001) in HIV-negative subjects. PARs for smoking, diabetes and hypertension were 54.35 and 30.58, 6.57 and 17.24, and 9.07 and 38.81% in HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The contribution of smoking to ACS in HIV-positive adults was generally greater than the contributions of diabetes and hypertension, and was almost twice as high as that in HIV-negative adults. Development of effective smoking cessation strategies should be prioritized to prevent cardiovascular disease in HIV-positive adults.

Shadow of diabetes over cardiovascular disease: comparative quantification of population-attributable all-cause and cardiovascular mortality

BACKGROUND

We contrasted impacts on all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality of diabetes vs. CVD.

METHODS

Among participants the Tehran lipid and glucose study aged ≥ 30 years (n = 9752), we selected those who participated in the follow-up study until 20 March 2009 (n = 8795). Complete data on covariate were available for 8, 469 participants, contributing to a 67935 person-year follow up. In the analysis of outcomes (all-cause and CVD mortality), diabetes and CVD were assessed using Cox proportional hazard regression model adjusting for established CVD risk factors. We used population attributable hazard fraction (PAHF) and rate advancement period (RAP) that expresses how much sooner a given mortality rate is reached among exposed than among unexposed individuals.

RESULTS

Ten percent of the participants self-reported to have pervious CVD, and diabetes was ascertained in 17% of participants at baseline examination. During a median follow-up of 9 years 386 participants died of which 184 were due to CVD. All-cause and CVD mortality rate (95% CIs) were 5.5 (5.0-6.1) and 2.6 (2.3-3.0) per 1000 person-year, respectively. The PAHF of all-cause mortality for diabetes 9.2 (7.3-11.1) was greater than the one for CVD 3.5 (1.1-5.5). RAP estimates for all-cause mortality associated with diabetes ranged from 7.4 to 8.6 years whereas the RAP estimates for all-cause mortality associated with CVD ranged from 3.1 to 4.3 years. The PAHF of CVD mortality for diabetes 9.4 (6.8-12.0) was greater than the one for CVD 4.5 (1.8-7.0). RAP estimates for CVD mortality associated with diabetes ranged from 8.2 to 9.8 years whereas the RAP estimates for CVD mortality associated with CVD ranged from 4.7 to 6.7 years.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated that diabetes, which was shown to be keeping pace with prevalent CVD in terms of conferring excess risk of incident CVD, is currently causing more deaths in the population than does CVD.

Assessment of the value of a genetic risk score in improving the estimation of coronary risk

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association has established criteria for the evaluation of novel markers of cardiovascular risk. In accordance with these criteria, we assessed the association between a multi-locus genetic risk score (GRS) and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), and evaluated whether this GRS improves the predictive capacity of the Framingham risk function.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using eight genetic variants associated with CHD but not with classical cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), we generated a multi-locus GRS, and found it to be linearly associated with CHD in two population based cohorts: The REGICOR Study (n=2351) and The Framingham Heart Study (n=3537) (meta-analyzed HR [95%CI]: ~1.13 [1.01-1.27], per unit). Inclusion of the GRS in the Framingham risk function improved its discriminative capacity in the Framingham sample (c-statistic: 72.81 vs.72.37, p=0.042) but not in the REGICOR sample. According to both the net reclassification improvement (NRI) index and the integrated discrimination index (IDI), the GRS improved re-classification among individuals with intermediate coronary risk (meta-analysis NRI [95%CI]: 17.44 [8.04; 26.83]), but not overall.

CONCLUSIONS

A multi-locus GRS based on genetic variants unrelated to CVRFs was associated with a linear increase in risk of CHD events in two distinct populations. This GRS improves risk reclassification particularly in the population at intermediate coronary risk. These results indicate the potential value of the inclusion of genetic information in classical functions for risk assessment in the intermediate risk population group.

Age- and gender-specific population attributable risks of metabolic disorders on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Taiwan

Background

The extent of attributable risks of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components on mortality remains unclear, especially with respect to age and gender. We aimed to assess the age- and gender-specific population attributable risks (PARs) for cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality and all-cause mortality for public health planning.

Methods

A total of 2,092 men and 2,197 women 30 years of age and older, who were included in the 2002 Taiwan Survey of Hypertension, Hyperglycemia, and Hyperlipidemia (TwSHHH), were linked to national death certificates acquired through December 31, 2009. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios and PARs for mortality, with a median follow-up of 7.7 years.

Results

The respective PAR percentages of MetS for all-cause and CVD-related mortality were 11.6 and 39.2 in men, respectively, and 18.6 and 44.4 in women, respectively. Central obesity had the highest PAR for CVD mortality in women (57.5%), whereas arterial hypertension had the highest PAR in men (57.5%). For all-cause mortality, younger men and post-menopausal women had higher PARs related to Mets and its components; for CVD mortality, post-menopausal women had higher overall PARs than their pre-menopausal counterparts.

Conclusions

MetS has a limited application to the PAR for all-cause mortality, especially in men; its PAR for CVD mortality is more evident. For CVD mortality, MetS components have higher PARs than MetS itself, especially hypertension in men and waist circumference in post-menopausal women. In addition, PARs for diabetes mellitus and low HDL-cholesterol may exceed 20%. We suggest differential control of risk factors in different subpopulation as a strategy to prevent CVD-related mortality.