Examining quit attempts and successful quitting after recent cigarette tax increases

Beyond the smoke: Historical analysis of the revenue implications of state cigarette tax policies, 1989 to 2019

INTRODUCTION

While cigarette taxes are a vital tobacco control tool, their impact on cigarette tax revenue has been largely understudied in the extant literature. This study examines how the level of cigarette taxes affects the revenue generated from cigarettes in the United States over a thirty-year period.

METHODS

We obtained the Tax Burden Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1989-2019). Our dependent variables were gross cigarette tax revenue and per capita gross cigarette tax revenue, and our independent variable was state tax per pack. We used two-way fixed effects to estimate the relationship between state cigarette tax revenue and cigarette taxes, adjusting for state-level sociodemographic characteristics, state-fixed effects, and time trends.

RESULTS

The study reveals that raising cigarette state tax by 10 % led to a 7.2 % to 7.5 % increase in cigarette tax revenue. We also found state and regional variation in taxes and revenue, with the Northeast region having the highest taxes per pack and tax revenues. In 2019, most states had low or moderate taxes per pack and tax revenues per capita, while a few states had high taxes per pack and tax revenues per capita.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research demonstrates the positive impact of increased cigarette taxes on state tax revenue over three decades. Not only do higher taxes aid in tobacco control, but they also enhance state revenues that can be reinvested in state initiatives. Some states could potentially optimize their tax rates.

The effect of cigarette and e-cigarette taxes on prescriptions for smoking cessation medications

OBJECTIVE

To test the effect of cigarette and e-cigarette taxes on prescriptions for smoking cessation medications.

DATA SOURCE

Symphony Health, IDV all-payer prescription claims data for the United States over the period 2009-2017. Prescription fills for smoking cessation products were provided at the patient's age, patient's sex, brand/generic, payment type, year, and quarter levels.

STUDY DESIGN

We study the effect of state-level cigarette and e-cigarette tax rates on prescriptions for smoking cessation medications using two-way fixed effect modified difference-in-differences regressions. We also use a multiperiod difference-in-differences estimator robust to bias from dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects with a staggered policy rollout.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

We use fills for Chantix, Zyban, and their generics, as well as Food and Drug Administration-approved nicotine replacement therapies that are paid for by insurance.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We observe no statistically significant change in prescription fills following an increase in the e-cigarette tax rate, though we are unable to rule out potentially large effects. However, following a $1.00 increase in the cigarette tax rate, we observe a 1052 increase in prescription fills per 100,000 adults (95% CI: 57, 2046; 4.2% increase). The effect of cigarette taxes on prescription fills was particularly large for 18-34 year-olds.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that, during a period when e-cigarettes are widely available, cigarette tax increases remain effective in increasing use of these medications, but e-cigarette taxes do not increase use of these medications.

Smokers' strategies to reduce tobacco spending: self-reported use and differences across subgroups. Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Survey

BACKGROUND

The cost of tobacco is one of the most reported reasons for smoking cessation. Rather than quitting, smokers can use also strategies to reduce tobacco expenditure while continuing smoking, such as smoking less or using price-minimising strategies. The Netherlands announced to increase the price of a pack cigarettes from seven (2018) to ten euros (2023), to reduce tobacco prevalence and consumption. This study explores the self-reported strategies to reduce tobacco spending among Dutch smokers, and whether this differed per age, income, and education. Additionally, we analysed among quitters in these subgroups whether price played a role in their decision to quit.

METHODS

Cross-sectional survey data from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Wave 2 (September-November 2020, N = 1915) was used. Strategies to reduce spending among smokers (N = 1790) were: reducing consumption, bulk buying, switching to cheaper products or buying from low-taxed sources. These were collapsed into: reducing consumption (solely or in combination with other behaviours), solely price-minimising behaviours (such as buying cheaper brands), or no strategies to reduce spending. Associations between strategies and characteristics were analysed through multinomial and binary logistic regression models. Second, we explored which subgroups were more likely to report that price played a role in their decision to quit among quitters (N = 125).

RESULTS

The majority of smokers used strategies to reduce tobacco spending: 35.6% reduced consumption and 19.3% used solely price-minimising strategies. 82.1% of quitters reported that price played a role in their decision to quit. Low-income individuals were more likely to report price as a reason for quitting and reduce consumption, but also to buy cheaper products. Highly nicotine dependent smokers were more likely to use price-minimising behaviours, and less likely to reduce consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority reported using strategies to reduce spending or that price played a role in their decision to quit. Reducing consumption was the most reported strategy. Low-income smokers were more likely to reportedly reduce consumption, buy cheaper products, or quit. Price policies have the potential to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in smoking. To discourage price-minimising behaviours, such as switching to cheaper products, reducing price differences between products should be prioritized.

Smoking prevalence following the announcement of tobacco tax increases in England between 2007 and 2019: an interrupted time-series analysis

AIMS

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of announcement of tax increases on factory-made (FM) and roll-your own (RYO) cigarettes in England.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Autoregressive integrated moving average with exogeneous input (ARIMAX) time-series modelling in England, UK. Data were aggregated monthly on 274 890 participants between 2007 and 2019 taking part in the Smoking Toolkit Study (STS).

MEASUREMENTS

The association of sustained step level changes for tax rises for FM cigarettes and temporary pulse effects for tax rises for RYO cigarettes with smoking, quit attempt and quit success prevalence as well as per-capita self-reported cigarette consumption and cost per cigarette was assessed.

FINDINGS

A 10% rise in tax on RYO cigarettes was associated with a temporary 21.1% decline [95% confidence interval (CI) = -30.4 to -10.7] in smoking prevalence, and 20.7% decline (95% CI = -32.4 to -7.0) in per-capita self-reported cigarette consumption; while a 3% rise of tax on RYO cigarettes was associated with a temporary 20.7% decline (95% CI = -33.3 to -5.8) in the amount paid per RYO cigarette. For tax increases on FM cigarettes, a 5% above inflation tax rise was associated with a step-level increase of 33.1% (95% CI = 18.4-49.5) in quit success rates. However, some of the findings were sensitive to model specification and temporally specific.

CONCLUSION

The announcements of tax increases for cigarettes in England between 2010 and 2019 were inconsistently associated with temporary reductions in smoking prevalence, per-capita self-reported cigarette consumption and improved quit success. Paradoxically, reductions in the cost for roll-your-own cigarettes were also found. The results were not robust in all sensitivity analyses.

Tobacco Taxation Influences the Smoking Habits of Adult Smokers Attending Smoking Cessation Clinic in Saudi Arabia

Objectives

To determine whether the increased tobacco price due to tax implementation on tobacco products (including cigarettes) has a significant effect on smoking cessation among Saudi Arabian adult smokers.

Methods

An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to obtain data from adult Saudi smokers and recent quitters attending smoking cessation clinics between January 2018 and September 2019. The responses of the participants were summarized and analyzed.

Results

In total, 660 participants were interviewed, of which 98% were men who resided in the western region (33%). Taxation had no effect on smoking in 387 participants [58.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 54.9, 62.4], some effect in 220 participants (33.3%; 95% CI: 29.7, 36.9), and a substantial effect in 50 participants (7.6%; 95% CI: 5.6, 9.6). Strategies adopted to cope with the tax implementation included cutting down on the number of cigarettes smoked (302; 45.8%), changing to a cheaper brand of cigarette (151; 22.9%), purchasing in bulk (105; 15.9%), attempting to quit (453; 68.6%), and doing nothing (108; 16.4%). The rate of quitting smoking after attending the clinic was 20.7% (95% CI: 17.7, 23.9). Occupation (P = 0.003), education (P = 0.03), and current smoking habit (P = 0.07) were significantly associated with the impact of tobacco taxation. The strategies adopted in response to tax implementation on cigarettes were significantly associated with occupation (χ2 = 30, degrees of freedom = 12, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Tobacco taxation influenced 40% of the participants. Their attempts to opt for alternatives should be recognized in evaluating policies to reduce adverse health impacts caused by tobacco abuse.

Tobacco Price Increase and Successful Smoking Cessation for Two or More Years in Japan

INTRODUCTION

Assessing long-term smoking cessation after tobacco price increases is more valuable than short-term cessation as smokers often relapse after temporary cessation. We investigated whether tobacco price increases were associated with long-term smoking cessation and whether the association differed according to demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral factors, using a national longitudinal survey of middle-aged individual-level data from 10 waves, every November from 2005 to 2014.

METHODS

Temporary and long-term at least 1 year (1y+) or 2 years (2y+) quitters were defined by smoking in any one wave and quitting in the subsequent two or three waves in a discrete-time design. November 2006 (after July 11% increase) and November 2010 (after October 37% increase) were used as proxy variables for price increases. Generalized estimating equation models adjusted for demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral covariates, and analyses stratified by these covariates were performed to estimate the association between price increases and smoking cessation.

RESULTS

Of 43 630 smokers aged 50-65, 7.7%, 5.6%, and 5.2% of smokers quit temporarily, for at least 1 year and at least 2 years, respectively. 2y+ quitters significantly increased in November 2005-November 2008 (adjusted odds ratio = 1.23, 95% confidence interval: 1.06-1.43) and November 2009-November 2012 (adjusted odds ratio = 1.85, 95% confidence interval = 1.57-2.16). In stratified analyses, higher prices were associated with 2y+ quitters in all subgroups with some exceptions, including participants who smoked 21-30 cigarettes per day and those aged 60-65.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing tobacco prices may be effective in promoting long-term smoking cessation in various subgroups among middle-aged Japanese adults.

IMPLICATIONS

Few longitudinal studies have examined the effect of a tobacco price increase on long-term smoking cessation. In a national longitudinal survey of middle-aged Japanese from 10 waves, the 37% tobacco price increase was found to be a trigger for successful smoking cessation for two or more years. Price increases were significantly associated with 2y+ smoking cessation in most demographic, behavioral, and socioeconomic subgroups. Results indicate that higher tobacco prices may be effective for long-term smoking cessation in almost all subgroups. Raising tobacco taxes and prices may be one of the most effective strategies for promoting long-term smoking cessation.

E-cigarette and cigarette purchasing among young adults before and after implementation of California's tobacco 21 policy

BACKGROUND

Tobacco 21 (T21) laws, which raise the minimum legal age of sale of tobacco products to 21, have been proposed and implemented in states and cities across the USA. However, limited data are available on the effect of T21 laws on youth tobacco purchasing behaviours and access to tobacco products.

METHODS

Participants in a population-based prospective cohort in southern California completed questionnaires before (n=1609, age=18-19 y) and after (n=1502, age=19-20 y) T21 was implemented in California (June 2016). We examined the prevalence of past 30-day cigarette and e-cigarette use, and among past 30-day users, purchase location of tobacco products before (pre-) versus after (post-) T21. We also examined whether, post-T21, participants were refused purchase of tobacco products due to their age, and the perceived relative ease of purchasing cigarettes and e-cigarettes (vs pre-T21).

RESULTS

Negligible changes in cigarette and e-cigarette use were observed pre-T21 versus post-T21. At both time points, the majority of past 30-day users purchased cigarettes from gas stations and e-cigarettes from vape shops. Post-T21, the proportion of participants who reported purchasing cigarettes at gas stations decreased. Post-T21, most past 30-day cigarette or e-cigarette users were not refused purchase of cigarettes (65.4%) or e-cigarettes (82.0%) in the past 30 days, despite being under 21; half of the participants felt it was harder to purchase cigarettes (54.3%) and e-cigarettes (43.6%) post-T21.

CONCLUSION

Post-T21, few participants were refused purchase of any tobacco product, despite the illegality of such sales. Better enforcement of T21 is needed to improve the efficacy of T21 legislation.

Associations between smoking trajectories, smoke-free laws and cigarette taxes in a longitudinal sample of youth and young adults

Cigarette smoking patterns vary within the population, with some individuals remaining never smokers, some remaining occasional users, and others progressing to daily use or quitting. There is little research on how population-level tobacco control policy interventions affect individuals within different smoking trajectories. We identified associations between tobacco control policy interventions and changes across different smoking trajectories among adolescents and young adults. Using 15 annual waves of data drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), we applied a group-based trajectory model to identify associations between days smoked per month, comprehensive smoke-free laws, cigarette tax rates, and known socio-demographic risk factors for membership in different smoking trajectories. Comprehensive smoke-free laws were associated with reduced risk of initiation and reductions in days smoked per month for all trajectories other than occasional users. Higher tax rates were associated with reduced risk of initiation and days smoked for all trajectories other than established users. Overall, population-based tobacco control policies, particularly comprehensive smoke-free laws, were associated with reduced smoking. Tobacco taxes primarily reduced risk of initiation and use among never smokers, experimenters, and quitters, consistent with previous research suggesting that tobacco manufacturers lower prices after tax increases to reduce the cost of continued smoking for established users. These results provide support for expanding smoke-free laws and establishing a minimum tobacco floor price, which could improve public health by reducing the risk of initiation as well as use among occasional and established smokers.

A dismantling study on imaginal retraining in smokers

Imaginal retraining is a noncomputerized variant of cognitive bias modification, an intervention aimed at reducing craving in substance use disorders and behavioral addictions. We conducted a dismantling study to elucidate which of its multiple components are effective and hence essential ingredients of the training and which are ineffective (and hence perhaps dispensable) in reducing craving. We randomized 187 smokers to one out of six conditions that instructed participants to perform a brief intervention. In four of these, participants were instructed to perform isolated components of the imaginal retraining protocol, and in the two other conditions participants either suppressed or simply observed (control condition) the image of a cigarette. Before and after the intervention, participants were asked to rate their level of craving and how pleasant they found three smoking-related images. We examined within-group changes by means of paired t-tests separately across conditions (trial registration: DRKS00021044). Mental distancing from cigarettes (without a corresponding actual physical movement; non-motor retraining) led to a significant decline in craving (paired t-test), which remained significant when compared to the control condition. The effects of other components of the retraining were less consistent. The present study shows that a single therapeutic "dose" of distinct components involved in imaginal retraining can reduce craving for cigarettes. Future trials should investigate the effectiveness of components of imaginal retraining not yet tested (e.g., mood induction) and whether combinations and repetition of single components strengthen or dilute efficacy.

Young adults' intention to quit using JUUL

BACKGROUND

With research indicating some young audiences may desire to quit using JUUL, a high-nicotine e-cigarette, we sought to explore factors that may motivate them to quit.

METHODS

This sequential, mixed methods study included a cross-sectional online survey of college students (n = 631) followed by in-person interviews (n = 51) with survey participants. Data were collected March-April 2019. The survey asked about intention to quit using JUUL. A latent class analysis (LCA) identified participant groups who would quit for various reasons. Participants were also asked 'Can you be too old to JUUL?' during the survey. During the interviews, participants were provided preliminary survey findings and asked about their perceptions of the data. Interview participants were also asked about their expectations for future use of JUUL.

RESULTS

Four classes emerged from the LCA, indicating costs to self (i.e., harm to lungs/brain, price; 46.8%), financial costs (36.6%), all costs (e.g., social, monetary, health; 9.3%), and harm to self (7.3%) may have influenced our sample's decision to quit using JUUL. Interviewees affirmed desires to quit using JUUL, especially after leaving college. Only 27.19% of survey participants reported an age threshold for using JUUL (M = 31.8 years, SD = 10.0); however, several interviewees explained that although someone could not be too old to JUUL, it would be 'immature' or 'childish' for adults who were not trying to quit smoking to use JUUL socially.

DISCUSSION

Comprehensive tobacco control strategies such as taxing e-cigarettes, marketing campaigns, and nicotine cessation programs are needed to help nicotine dependent young adults quit using high-nicotine e-cigarettes.

Effects of an 80% cigarette price increase on quit attempts, successful quitting and smoking intensity among Korean adult smokers: results from nationally representative longitudinal panel data

OBJECTIVES

South Korea implemented an unprecedented cigarette tax increase in 2015, raising its cigarette price by 80%. This study evaluated the extent to which the 2015 cigarette tax increase affected Korean adult smokers in terms of quit attempts, successful quitting and smoking intensity.

METHODS

Data were drawn from a nationally representative longitudinal study, the Korean Welfare Panel Study (waves 9-12, 2014-2017). Korean adults who smoked before the 2015 cigarette tax increase comprised the sample (n=2114). We used the multiple logistic regressions to examine factors of quit attempts and successful quitting and the generalised estimating equations to estimate changes in smoking intensity among continued smokers.

RESULTS

After the cigarette tax increase, 60.9% (n=1334) of baseline smokers attempted to quit and 34.7% of the attempters succeeded in quitting. The smokers aged ≥ 65 years and light smokers both attempted more (p<0.01) and succeeded more (p<0.05) in quitting than smokers aged 35-44 years and heavy smokers, respectively. The successful quitting was not significantly associated with income levels. Depressive symptoms, first cigarette use before age 19 and smoking a pack or more a day at baseline were associated with failures in quitting. Smoking intensity among continued smokers decreased after the cigarette tax increase (p<0.001), but such a decrease was not observed in light smokers, young smokers and high-income smokers.

CONCLUSION

The current study findings imply that the Korean government may consider implementing periodic increases in cigarette tax which should reflect the rate of inflation and income growth. Smoking cessation programmes need to address depressive symptoms.