Long-term effects of the interruption of the Dutch breast cancer screening program due to COVID-19: A modelling study

Impact of the Coronavirus disease pandemic on early breast cancer

Objective

To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the presentation, treatment, and survival of patients with early breast cancer (Stage I-III).

Methods

This study utilized data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2020. Patients diagnosed with primary breast cancer in 2020 were compared to those diagnosed in 2018 or 2019. The primary outcomes were stage distribution and changes in the treatment modalities for early breast cancer. The secondary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS).

Results

We analyzed 142,038 patients. There has been a decrease in breast cancer diagnoses in 2020, as well as the smaller number of surgeries. The distribution of breast cancer stages among patients exhibited a notable shift in 2020, with a decrease in the proportion of Stage 0-I and an increase in advanced-stage. Additionally, there was a significant decrease in the proportion of breast-conserving surgery (BCS) performed in 2020. The proportion of patients undergoing radiation decreased, while that of chemotherapy cases increased significantly in 2020. Patients showed a shorter treatment delay in 2020 than in 2018 or 2019 (2018: hazard ratio [HR] = 0.969, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.956-0.982, p < 0.001; 2019: HR=0.959, 95% CI = 0.946-0.972, p < 0.001). Diagnosis in 2020 showed a significant correlation with worse OS than diagnosis in 2018 (HR = 0.861, 95% CI = 0.743-0.996, p = 0.045).

Conclusion

We observed a shift to advanced-stage and a change of treatment modalities of early breast cancer in 2020. The OS of patients with breast cancer was worse during the pandemic than before the pandemic. The findings could provide empirical basis for optimizing cancer prevention and control strategies in future public health emergencies.

Examining the impact of COVID-19 disruptions on population-based breast cancer screening in Ireland

OBJECTIVE

Many population-based breast screening programmes temporarily suspended routine screening following the COVID-19 pandemic onset. This study aimed to describe screening mammography utilisation and the pattern of screen-detected breast cancer diagnoses following COVID-19-related screening disruptions in Ireland.

METHODS

Using anonymous aggregate data from women invited for routine screening, three time periods were examined: (1) January-December 2019, (2) January-December 2020, and (3) January-December 2021. Descriptive statistics were conducted and comparisons between groups were performed using chi-square tests.

RESULTS

In 2020, screening mammography capacity fell by 67.1% compared to 2019; recovering to 75% of mammograms performed in 2019, during 2021. Compared to 2019, for screen-detected invasive breast cancers, a reduction in Grade 1 (14.2% vs. 17.2%) and Grade 2 tumours (53.4% vs. 58.0%) and an increase in Grade 3 tumours (32.4% vs. 24.8%) was observed in 2020 (p = 0.03); whereas an increase in Grade 2 tumours (63.3% vs. 58.0%) and a reduction in Grade 3 tumours (19.6% vs. 24.8%) was found in 2021 (p = 0.02). No changes in oestrogen receptor-positive or nodal-positive diagnoses were observed; however the proportion of oestrogen/progesterone receptor-positive breast cancers significantly increased in 2020 (76.2%; p < 0.01) and 2021 (78.7%; p < 0.001) compared to 2019 (67.8%).

CONCLUSION

These findings demonstrate signs of a grade change for screen-detected invasive breast cancers early in the pandemic, with recovery evident in 2021, and without an increase in nodal positivity. Future studies are needed to determine the COVID-19 impact on long-term breast cancer outcomes including mortality.

Effects of interventions on the screening behavior in female first-degree relatives of breast cancer patients: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Women are more likely to develop breast cancer if their first-degree relatives (FDRs) have the disease, but they are often unaware of their individual risk and conduct screening behaviors.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in increasing breast self-examination, clinical breast examination, and mammography rates in FDRs of breast cancer patients.

METHODS

We selected randomized clinical trials and quasi-experimental studies in eight databases. Interventions in each study were categorized as "promising", or "non-promising" according to whether they led to a positive change in screening behaviors. Interventions were also coded using the Behavioral Change Techniques (BCTs) Taxonomy and a promise ratio calculated for each. BCTs with a promise ratio ≥2 was classified as "promising".

RESULTS

Thirteen studies with 21 different BCTs were included. The most frequent BCTs were "Prompts/cues", "Credible source", and "Instructions on how to perform the behavior". Seven BCTs had a promise ratio of ≥2 and the four most promising were "Information about health consequences" (promise ratio = 6), "Problem solving" (promise ratio = 4), "Demonstration of the behavior" (promise ratio = 4), and "Adding objects to the environment" (promise ratio = 4).

CONCLUSIONS

This review indicated an overall weak use of theory, and an insufficient description of several interventions to support the assessment of how specific BCTs were activated.

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Utilization of Public Sector Radiological Services in the Western Cape Province of South Africa

Background Coronavirus (COVID-19) was officially declared a pandemic in March 2020 and has had a major impact on global healthcare services, including radiology. However, little is known about the full impact of COVID-19 on the utilization of diagnostic imaging in Africa's public healthcare sector. Objectives The objective of this study was to compare public sector diagnostic imaging utilization by modality for the whole Western Cape Province (WCP) of South Africa (SA), as well as its metropolitan and rural areas, in 2019 and 2020 in terms of the absolute number of investigations and investigations per 1000 people. Method We performed a retrospective analysis of Western Cape Government Department of Health and Wellness and Stats SA District Council 2021 Mid-Year Population Estimates data. All diagnostic imaging investigations performed in 2019 and 2020 were collated and stratified by imaging modality, geographic region (metropolitan/rural), and calendar year. Data are presented as the total number of investigations and investigations per 1000 people. We calculated mammography utilization for women aged 40-70 years and compared data for 2019 and 2020. Results Between 2019 and 2020, the provincial population increased by 1.9%, while total imaging investigations and investigations per 1000 people decreased by 19% (1,384,941 vs. 1,123,508, -261,433) and 20% (262/103 vs. 208/103), respectively. Total numerical decline was highest in plain radiographs (1,005,545 vs. 800,641, -204,904), accounting for more than three-quarters (78%) of the total reduction. Percentage decline was most pronounced for mammography, as utilization was almost halved (15.7/103 vs. 8.9/103, -43%), whereas computed tomography was the least impacted (17.9/103 vs. 16.7/103, -12%) with the remaining modalities decreasing between approximately one-quarter and one-fifth (magnetic resonance imaging = 26%, fluoroscopy = 25%, general radiographs = 23%, ultrasound = 16%, chest radiographs = 18%). Proportional metropolitan (-18.7%) and rural decreases (-19.3%) were similar. Conclusion COVID-19 had a substantial impact on WCP imaging services, decreasing overall radiological investigations by almost one-fifth. The greatest impact was on elective investigations, particularly mammography. Although the proportional impact was similar for the metropolitan and rural areas, COVID-19 nonetheless exacerbated existing discrepancies in imaging utilization between the geographical regions. The medium- and long-term clinical impacts of decreased imaging are still to be defined.

Scoping review of modelling studies assessing the impact of disruptions to essential health services during COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Studies assessing the indirect impact of COVID-19 using mathematical models have increased in recent years. This scoping review aims to identify modelling studies assessing the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services caused by COVID-19 and to summarise the characteristics of disruption and the models used to assess the disruptions.

METHODS

Eligible studies were included if they used any models to assess the impact of COVID-19 disruptions on any health services. Articles published from January 2020 to December 2022 were identified from PubMed, Embase and CINAHL, using detailed searches with key concepts including COVID-19, modelling and healthcare disruptions. Two reviewers independently extracted the data in four domains. A descriptive analysis of the included studies was performed under the format of a narrative report.

RESULTS

This scoping review has identified a total of 52 modelling studies that employed several models (n=116) to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services. The majority of the models were simulation models (n=86; 74.1%). Studies covered a wide range of health conditions from infectious diseases to non-communicable diseases. COVID-19 has been reported to disrupt supply of health services, demand for health services and social change affecting factors that influence health. The most common outcomes reported in the studies were clinical outcomes such as mortality and morbidity. Twenty-five studies modelled various mitigation strategies; maintaining critical services by ensuring resources and access to services are found to be a priority for reducing the overall impact.

CONCLUSION

A number of models were used to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services on various outcomes. There is a need for collaboration among stakeholders to enhance the usefulness of any modelling. Future studies should consider disparity issues for more comprehensive findings that could ultimately facilitate policy decision-making to maximise benefits to all.