On selecting a minimal set of in vitro assays to reliably determine estrogen agonist activity

A 50-gene biomarker identifies estrogen receptor-modulating chemicals in a microarray compendium

High throughput transcriptomics (HTTr) profiling has the potential to rapidly and comprehensively identify molecular targets of environmental chemicals that can be linked to adverse outcomes. We describe here the construction and characterization of a 50-gene expression biomarker designed to identify estrogen receptor (ER) active chemicals in HTTr datasets. Using microarray comparisons, the genes in the biomarker were identified as those that exhibited consistent directional changes when ER was activated (4 ER agonists; 4 ESR1 gene constitutively active mutants) and opposite directional changes when ER was suppressed (4 antagonist treatments; 4 ESR1 knockdown experiments). The biomarker was evaluated as a predictive tool using the Running Fisher algorithm by comparison to annotated gene expression microarray datasets including those evaluating the transcriptional effects of hormones and chemicals in MCF-7 cells. Depending on the reference dataset used, the biomarker had a predictive accuracy for activation of up to 96%. To demonstrate applicability for HTTr data analysis, the biomarker was used to identify ER activators in a set of 15 chemicals that are considered potential bisphenol A (BPA) alternatives examined at up to 10 concentrations in MCF-7 cells and analyzed by full-genome TempO-Seq. Using benchmark dose (BMD) modeling, the biomarker genes stratified the ER potency of BPA alternatives consistent with previous studies. These results demonstrate that the ER biomarker can be used to accurately identify ER activators in transcript profile data derived from MCF-7 cells.

Chemistry domain of applicability evaluation against existing estrogen receptor high-throughput assay-based activity models

Introduction

The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency's Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP) Tier 1 assays are used to screen for potential endocrine system-disrupting chemicals. A model integrating data from 16 high-throughput screening assays to predict estrogen receptor (ER) agonism has been proposed as an alternative to some low-throughput Tier 1 assays. Later work demonstrated that as few as four assays could replicate the ER agonism predictions from the full model with 98% sensitivity and 92% specificity. The current study utilized chemical clustering to illustrate the coverage of the EDSP Universe of Chemicals (UoC) tested in the existing ER pathway models and to investigate the utility of chemical clustering to evaluate the screening approach using an existing 4-assay model as a test case. Although the full original assay battery is no longer available, the demonstrated contribution of chemical clustering is broadly applicable to assay sets, chemical inventories, and models, and the data analysis used can also be applied to future evaluation of minimal assay models for consideration in screening.

Methods

Chemical structures were collected for 6,947 substances via the CompTox Chemicals Dashboard from the over 10,000 UoC and grouped based on structural similarity, generating 826 chemical clusters. Of the 1,812 substances run in the original ER model, 1,730 substances had a single, clearly defined structure. The ER model chemicals with a clearly defined structure that were not present in the EDSP UoC were assigned to chemical clusters using a k-nearest neighbors approach, resulting in 557 EDSP UoC clusters containing at least one ER model chemical.

Results and Discussion

Performance of an existing 4-assay model in comparison with the existing full ER agonist model was analyzed as related to chemical clustering. This was a case study, and a similar analysis can be performed with any subset model in which the same chemicals (or subset of chemicals) are screened. Of the 365 clusters containing >1 ER model chemical, 321 did not have any chemicals predicted to be agonists by the full ER agonist model. The best 4-assay subset ER agonist model disagreed with the full ER agonist model by predicting agonist activity for 122 chemicals from 91 of the 321 clusters. There were 44 clusters with at least two chemicals and at least one agonist based upon the full ER agonist model, which allowed accuracy predictions on a per-cluster basis. The accuracy of the best 4-assay subset ER agonist model ranged from 50% to 100% across these 44 clusters, with 32 clusters having accuracy ≥90%. Overall, the best 4-assay subset ER agonist model resulted in 122 false-positive and only 2 false-negative predictions compared with the full ER agonist model. Most false positives (89) were active in only two of the four assays, whereas all but 11 true positive chemicals were active in at least three assays. False positive chemicals also tended to have lower area under the curve (AUC) values, with 110 out of 122 false positives having an AUC value below 0.214, which is lower than 75% of the positives as predicted by the full ER agonist model. Many false positives demonstrated borderline activity. The median AUC value for the 122 false positives from the best 4-assay subset ER agonist model was 0.138, whereas the threshold for an active prediction is 0.1.

Conclusion

Our results show that the existing 4-assay model performs well across a range of structurally diverse chemicals. Although this is a descriptive analysis of previous results, several concepts can be applied to any screening model used in the future. First, the clustering of the chemicals provides a means of ensuring that future screening evaluations consider the broad chemical space represented by the EDSP UoC. The clusters can also assist in prioritizing future chemicals for screening in specific clusters based on the activity of known chemicals in those clusters. The clustering approach can be useful in providing a framework to evaluate which portions of the EDSP UoC chemical space are reliably covered by in silico and in vitro approaches and where predictions from either method alone or both methods combined are most reliable. The lessons learned from this case study can be easily applied to future evaluations of model applicability and screening to evaluate future datasets.

Optimizing androgen receptor prioritization using high-throughput assay-based activity models

Introduction: Computational models using data from high-throughput screening assays have promise for prioritizing and screening chemicals for testing under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP). The purpose of this work was to demonstrate a data processing method for the determination of optimal minimal assay batteries from a larger comprehensive model, to provide a uniform method of evaluating the performance of future minimal assay batteries compared with the androgen receptor (AR) pathway model, and to incorporate chemical cluster analysis into this evaluation. Although several of the assays in the AR pathway model are no longer available through the original vendor, this approach could be used for future evaluations of minimal assay models for prioritization and screening. Methods: We compared two previously published models and found that an expanded 14-assay model had higher sensitivity for antagonists, whereas the original 11-assay model had slightly higher sensitivity for agonists. We then investigated subsets of assays in the original AR pathway model to optimize overall testing strategies that minimize cost while maintaining sensitivity across a broad chemical space. Results and Discussion: Evaluation of the critical assays across subset models derived from the 14-assay model identified three critical assays for predicting antagonism and two critical assays for predicting agonism. A minimum of nine assays is required for predicting agonism and antagonism with high sensitivity (95%). However, testing workflows guided by chemical structure-based clusters can reduce the average number of assays needed per chemical by basing the assays selected for testing on the likelihood of a chemical being an AR agonist, according to its structure. Our results show that a multi-stage testing workflow can provide 95% sensitivity while requiring only 48% of the resources required for running all assays from the original full models. The resources can be reduced further by incorporating in silico activity predictions. Conclusion: This work illustrates a data-driven approach that incorporates chemical clustering and simultaneous consideration of antagonism and agonism mechanisms to more efficiently screen chemicals. This case study provides a proof of concept for prioritization and screening strategies that can be utilized in future analyses to minimize the overall number of assays needed for predicting AR activity, which will maximize the number of chemicals that can be tested and allow data-driven prioritization of chemicals for further screening under the EDSP.

A novel ERβ high throughput microscopy platform for testing endocrine disrupting chemicals

In this study we present an inducible biosensor model for the Estrogen Receptor Beta (ERβ), GFP-ERβ:PRL-HeLa, a single-cell-based high throughput (HT) in vitro assay that allows direct visualization and measurement of GFP-tagged ERβ binding to ER-specific DNA response elements (EREs), ERβ-induced chromatin remodeling, and monitor transcriptional alterations via mRNA fluorescence in situ hybridization for a prolactin (PRL)-dsRED2 reporter gene. The model was used to accurately (Z' = 0.58-0.8) differentiate ERβ-selective ligands from ERα ligands when treated with a panel of selective agonists and antagonists. Next, we tested an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-provided set of 45 estrogenic reference chemicals with known ERα in vivo activity and identified several that activated ERβ as well, with varying sensitivity, including a subset that is completely novel. We then used an orthogonal ERE-containing transgenic zebrafish (ZF) model to cross validate ERβ and ERα selective activities at the organism level. Using this environmentally relevant ZF assay, some compounds were confirmed to have ERβ activity, validating the GFP-ERβ:PRL-HeLa assay as a screening tool for potential ERβ active endocrine disruptors (EDCs). These data demonstrate the value of sensitive multiplex mechanistic data gathered by the GFP-ERβ:PRL-HeLa assay coupled with an orthogonal zebrafish model to rapidly identify environmentally relevant ERβ EDCs and improve upon currently available screening tools for this understudied nuclear receptor.

Exploring the effects of experimental parameters and data modeling approaches on in vitro transcriptomic point-of-departure estimates

Multiple new approach methods (NAMs) are being developed to rapidly screen large numbers of chemicals to aid in hazard evaluation and risk assessments. High-throughput transcriptomics (HTTr) in human cell lines has been proposed as a first-tier screening approach for determining the types of bioactivity a chemical can cause (activation of specific targets vs. generalized cell stress) and for calculating transcriptional points of departure (tPODs) based on changes in gene expression. In the present study, we examine a range of computational methods to calculate tPODs from HTTr data, using six data sets in which MCF7 cells cultured in two different media formulations were treated with a panel of 44 chemicals for 3 different exposure durations (6, 12, 24 hr). The tPOD calculation methods use data at the level of individual genes and gene set signatures, and compare data processed using the ToxCast Pipeline 2 (tcplfit2), BMDExpress and PLIER (Pathway Level Information ExtractoR). Methods were evaluated by comparing to in vitro PODs from a validated set of high-throughput screening (HTS) assays for a set of estrogenic compounds. Key findings include: (1) for a given chemical and set of experimental conditions, tPODs calculated by different methods can vary by several orders of magnitude; (2) tPODs are at least as sensitive to computational methods as to experimental conditions; (3) in comparison to an external reference set of PODs, some methods give generally higher values, principally PLIER and BMDExpress; and (4) the tPODs from HTTr in this one cell type are mostly higher than the overall PODs from a broad battery of targeted in vitro ToxCast assays, reflecting the need to test chemicals in multiple cell types and readout technologies for in vitro hazard screening.

A tiered testing strategy based on in vitro phenotypic and transcriptomic data for selecting representative petroleum UVCBs for toxicity evaluation in vivo

Hazard evaluation of substances of "unknown or variable composition, complex reaction products and biological materials" (UVCBs) remains a major challenge in regulatory science because their chemical composition is difficult to ascertain. Petroleum substances are representative UVCBs and human cell-based data have been previously used to substantiate their groupings for regulatory submissions. We hypothesized that a combination of phenotypic and transcriptomic data could be integrated to make decisions as to selection of group-representative worst-case petroleum UVCBs for subsequent toxicity evaluation in vivo. We used data obtained from 141 substances from 16 manufacturing categories previously tested in 6 human cell types (induced pluripotent stem cell [iPSC]-derived hepatocytes, cardiomyocytes, neurons, and endothelial cells, and MCF7 and A375 cell lines). Benchmark doses for gene-substance combinations were calculated, and both transcriptomic and phenotype-derived points of departure (PODs) were obtained. Correlation analysis and machine learning were used to assess associations between phenotypic and transcriptional PODs and to determine the most informative cell types and assays, thus representing a cost-effective integrated testing strategy. We found that 2 cell types-iPSC-derived-hepatocytes and -cardiomyocytes-contributed the most informative and protective PODs and may be used to inform selection of representative petroleum UVCBs for further toxicity evaluation in vivo. Overall, although the use of new approach methodologies to prioritize UVCBs has not been widely adopted, our study proposes a tiered testing strategy based on iPSC-derived hepatocytes and cardiomyocytes to inform selection of representative worst-case petroleum UVCBs from each manufacturing category for further toxicity evaluation in vivo.

High-throughput AR dimerization assay identifies androgen disrupting chemicals and metabolites

Introduction: Analysis of streamlined computational models used to predict androgen disrupting chemicals revealed that assays measuring androgen receptor (AR) cofactor recruitment/dimerization were particularly indispensable to high predictivity, especially for AR antagonists. As the original dimerization assays used to develop the minimal assay models are no longer available, new assays must be established and evaluated as suitable alternatives to assess chemicals beyond the original 1,800+ supported by the current data. Here we present the AR2 assay, which is a stable, cell-based method that uses an enzyme complementation approach.

Methods: Bipartite domains of the NanoLuc luciferase enzyme were fused to the human AR to quantitatively measure ligand-dependent AR homodimerization. 128 chemicals with known endocrine activity profiles including 43 AR reference chemicals were screened in agonist and antagonist modes and compared to the legacy assays. Test chemicals were rescreened in both modes using a retrofit method to incorporate robust cytochrome P450 (CYP) metabolism to assess CYP-mediated shifts in bioactivity.

Results: The AR2 assay is amenable to high-throughput screening with excellent robust Z’-factors (rZ’) for both agonist (0.94) and antagonist (0.85) modes. The AR2 assay successfully classified known agonists (balanced accuracy = 0.92) and antagonists (balanced accuracy = 0.79–0.88) as well as or better than the legacy assays with equal or higher estimated potencies. The subsequent reevaluation of the 128 chemicals tested in the presence of individual human CYP enzymes changed the activity calls for five compounds and shifted the estimated potencies for several others.

Discussion: This study shows the AR2 assay is well suited to replace the previous AR dimerization assays in a revised computational model to predict AR bioactivity for parent chemicals and their metabolites.

New Approach Methodologies for the Endocrine Activity Toolbox: Environmental Assessment for Fish and Amphibians

Multiple in vivo test guidelines focusing on the estrogen, androgen, thyroid, and steroidogenesis pathways have been developed and validated for mammals, amphibians, or fish. However, these tests are resource-intensive and often use a large number of laboratory animals. Developing alternatives for in vivo tests is consistent with the replacement, reduction, and refinement principles for animal welfare considerations, which are supported by increasing mandates to move toward an "animal-free" testing paradigm worldwide. New approach methodologies (NAMs) hold great promise to identify molecular, cellular, and tissue changes that can be used to predict effects reliably and more efficiently at the individual level (and potentially on populations) while reducing the number of animals used in (eco)toxicological testing for endocrine disruption. In a collaborative effort, experts from government, academia, and industry met in 2020 to discuss the current challenges of testing for endocrine activity assessment for fish and amphibians. Continuing this cross-sector initiative, our review focuses on the current state of the science regarding the use of NAMs to identify chemical-induced endocrine effects. The present study highlights the challenges of using NAMs for safety assessment and what work is needed to reduce their uncertainties and increase their acceptance in regulatory processes. We have reviewed the current NAMs available for endocrine activity assessment including in silico, in vitro, and eleutheroembryo models. New approach methodologies can be integrated as part of a weight-of-evidence approach for hazard or risk assessment using the adverse outcome pathway framework. The development and utilization of NAMs not only allows for replacement, reduction, and refinement of animal testing but can also provide robust and fit-for-purpose methods to identify chemicals acting via endocrine mechanisms. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:757-777. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Vanillin-Based Indolin-2-one Derivative Bearing a Pyridyl Moiety as a Promising Anti-Breast Cancer Agent via Anti-Estrogenic Activity

The structure-based design introduced indoles as an essential motif in designing new selective estrogen receptor modulators employed for treating breast cancer. Therefore, here, a series of synthesized vanillin-substituted indolin-2-ones were screened against the NCI-60 cancer cell panel followed by in vivo, in vitro, and in silico studies. Physicochemical parameters were evaluated with HPLC and SwissADME tools. The compounds demonstrated promising anti-cancer activity for the MCF-7 breast cancer cell line (GI = 6-63%). The compound with the highest activity (6j) was selective for the MCF-7 breast cancer cell line (IC₅₀ = 17.01 μM) with no effect on the MCF-12A normal breast cell line supported by real-time cell analysis. A morphological examination of the used cell lines confirmed a cytostatic effect of compound 6j. It inhibited both in vivo and in vitro estrogenic activity, triggering a 38% reduction in uterine weight induced by estrogen in an immature rat model and hindering 62% of ER-α receptors in in vitro settings. In silico molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulation studies supported the stability of the ER-α and compound 6j protein-ligand complex. Herein, we report that indolin-2-one derivative 6j is a promising lead compound for further pharmaceutical formulations as a potential anti-breast cancer drug.

Advances in computational methods along the exposure to toxicological response paradigm

Human health risk assessment is a function of chemical toxicity, bioavailability to reach target biological tissues, and potential environmental exposure. These factors are complicated by many physiological, biochemical, physical and lifestyle factors. Furthermore, chemical health risk assessment is challenging in view of the large, and continually increasing, number of chemicals found in the environment. These challenges highlight the need to prioritize resources for the efficient and timely assessment of those environmental chemicals that pose greatest health risks. Computational methods, either predictive or investigative, are designed to assist in this prioritization in view of the lack of cost prohibitive in vivo experimental data. Computational methods provide specific and focused toxicity information using in vitro high throughput screening (HTS) assays. Information from the HTS assays can be converted to in vivo estimates of chemical levels in blood or target tissue, which in turn are converted to in vivo dose estimates that can be compared to exposure levels of the screened chemicals. This manuscript provides a review for the landscape of computational methods developed and used at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) highlighting their potentials and challenges.

Towards replacement of animal tests with in vitro assays: a gene expression biomarker predicts in vitro and in vivo estrogen receptor activity

High-throughput transcriptomics (HTTr) has the potential to support efforts to reduce or replace some animal tests. In past studies, we described a computational approach utilizing a gene expression biomarker consisting of 46 genes to predict estrogen receptor (ER) activity after chemical exposure in ER-positive human breast cancer cells including the MCF-7 cell line. We hypothesized that the biomarker model could identify ER activities of chemicals examined by Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP) Tier 1 screening assays in which transcript profiles of the same chemicals were examined in MCF-7 cells. For the 62 chemicals examined including 5 chemicals examined in this study using RNA-Seq, the ER biomarker model accuracy was 1) 97% for in vitro reference chemicals, 2) 76-85% for guideline uterotrophic assays, and 3) 87-88% for guideline and nonguideline uterotrophic assays. For the same chemicals, these accuracies were similar or slightly better than those of the ToxCast ER model based on 18 in vitro assays. The performance of the ER biomarker model indicates that HTTr interpreted using the ER biomarker correctly identifies active and inactive ER reference chemicals. As part of the HTTr screening program the approach could rapidly identify chemicals with potential ER bioactivities for additional screening and testing.

Towards regulation of Endocrine Disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in water resources using bioassays - A guide to developing a testing strategy

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are found in every environmental medium and are chemically diverse. Their presence in water resources can negatively impact the health of both human and wildlife. Currently, there are no mandatory screening mandates or regulations for EDC levels in complex water samples globally. Bioassays, which allow quantifying in vivo or in vitro biological effects of chemicals are used commonly to assess acute toxicity in water. The existing OECD framework to identify single-compound EDCs offers a set of bioassays that are validated for the Estrogen-, Androgen-, and Thyroid hormones, and for Steroidogenesis pathways (EATS). In this review, we discussed bioassays that could be potentially used to screen EDCs in water resources, including in vivo and in vitro bioassays using invertebrates, fish, amphibians, and/or mammalians species. Strengths and weaknesses of samples preparation for complex water samples are discussed. We also review how to calculate the Effect-Based Trigger values, which could serve as thresholds to determine if a given water sample poses a risk based on existing quality standards. This work aims to assist governments and regulatory agencies in developing a testing strategy towards regulation of EDCs in water resources worldwide. The main recommendations include 1) opting for internationally validated cell reporter in vitro bioassays to reduce animal use & cost; 2) testing for cell viability (a critical parameter) when using in vitro bioassays; and 3) evaluating the recovery of the water sample preparation method selected. This review also highlights future research avenues for the EDC screening revolution (e.g., 3D tissue culture, transgenic animals, OMICs, and Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs)).

Quality Control for Single Cell Imaging Analytics Using Endocrine Disruptor-Induced Changes in Estrogen Receptor Expression

BACKGROUND

Diverse toxicants and mixtures that affect hormone responsive cells [endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs)] are highly pervasive in the environment and are directly linked to human disease. They often target the nuclear receptor family of transcription factors modulating their levels and activity. Many high-throughput assays have been developed to query such toxicants; however, single-cell analysis of EDC effects on endogenous receptors has been missing, in part due to the lack of quality control metrics to reproducibly measure cell-to-cell variability in responses.

OBJECTIVE

We began by developing single-cell imaging and informatic workflows to query whether the single cell distribution of the estrogen receptor-α (ER), used as a model system, can be used to measure effects of EDCs in a sensitive and reproducible manner.

METHODS

We used high-throughput microscopy, coupled with image analytics to measure changes in single cell ER nuclear levels on treatment with ∼100 toxicants, over a large number of biological and technical replicates.

RESULTS

We developed a two-tiered quality control pipeline for single cell analysis and tested it against a large set of biological replicates, and toxicants from the EPA and Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry lists. We also identified a subset of potentially novel EDCs that were active only on the endogenous ER level and activity as measured by single molecule RNA fluorescence in situ hybridization (RNA FISH).

DISCUSSION

We demonstrated that the distribution of ER levels per cell, and the changes upon chemical challenges were remarkably stable features; and importantly, these features could be used for quality control and identification of endocrine disruptor toxicants with high sensitivity. When coupled with orthogonal assays, ER single cell distribution is a valuable resource for high-throughput screening of environmental toxicants. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9297.

Biological system considerations for application of toxicogenomics in next-generation risk assessment and predictive toxicology

There is increasing interest in using modern 'omics technologies, such as whole transcriptome sequencing, to inform decisions about human health safety and chemical toxicity hazard. High throughput methodologies using in vitro assays offer a path forward in reducing or eliminating animal testing. However, many aspects of these technologies need assessment before they will gain the trust of regulators and the public as viable alternative test methods for human health and safety. We used a high throughput whole transcriptome sequence assay (TempO-Seq) to assess the use of three widely used cancer cell lines (HepG2, MCF7, and Ishikawa cells) as in vitro systems for determination of cellular modes of action for two well studied compounds with canonical liver responses: ketoconazole and phenobarbital. We evaluated transcriptomic data to infer points of departure for use in risk analyses of compounds. Both compounds displayed shortcomings in evidence for canonical liver-related responses in any cell line, despite a strong dose response in all three. This raises questions about the competence of simple, mono-cultured cancer cell lines as appropriate surrogates for some adverse effects or toxic endpoints. Points of departure derived from benchmark doses were highly consistent across all three cell lines however, indicating the use of transcriptomic BMD analyses for such purposes would be a reliable and consistent approach.

Quantitative high-throughput phenotypic screening for environmental estrogens using the E-Morph Screening Assay in combination with in silico predictions

BACKGROUND

Exposure to environmental chemicals that interfere with normal estrogen function can lead to adverse health effects, including cancer. High-throughput screening (HTS) approaches facilitate the efficient identification and characterization of such substances.

OBJECTIVES

We recently described the development of the E-Morph Assay, which measures changes at adherens junctions as a clinically-relevant phenotypic readout for estrogen receptor (ER) alpha signaling activity. Here, we describe its further development and application for automated robotic HTS.

METHODS

Using the advanced E-Morph Screening Assay, we screened a substance library comprising 430 toxicologically-relevant industrial chemicals, biocides, and plant protection products to identify novel substances with estrogenic activities. Based on the primary screening data and the publicly available ToxCast dataset, we performed an insilico similarity search to identify further substances with potential estrogenic activity for follow-up hit expansion screening, and built seven insilico ER models using the conformal prediction (CP) framework to evaluate the HTS results.

RESULTS

The primary and hit confirmation screens identified 27 'known' estrogenic substances with potencies correlating very well with the published ToxCast ER Agonist Score (r=+0.95). We additionally detected potential 'novel' estrogenic activities for 10 primary hit substances and for another nine out of 20 structurally similar substances from insilico predictions and follow-up hit expansion screening. The concordance of the E-Morph Screening Assay with the ToxCast ER reference data and the generated CP ER models was 71% and 73%, respectively, with a high predictivity for ER active substances of up to 87%, which is particularly important for regulatory purposes.

DISCUSSION

These data provide a proof-of-concept for the combination of in vitro HTS approaches with insilico methods (similarity search, CP models) for efficient analysis of large substance libraries in order to prioritize substances with potential estrogenic activity for subsequent testing against higher tier human endpoints.

Derivation of a Human In Vivo Benchmark Dose for Perfluorooctanoic Acid From ToxCast In Vitro Concentration-Response Data Using a Computational Workflow for Probabilistic Quantitative In Vitro to In Vivo Extrapolation

A computational workflow which integrates physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modeling, global sensitivity analysis (GSA), approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation was developed to facilitate quantitative in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (QIVIVE). The workflow accounts for parameter and model uncertainty within a computationally efficient framework. The workflow was tested using a human PBK model for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and high throughput screening (HTS) in vitro concentration–response data, determined in a human liver cell line, from the ToxCast/Tox21 database. In vivo benchmark doses (BMDs) for PFOA intake (ng/kg BW/day) and drinking water exposure concentrations (µg/L) were calculated from the in vivo dose responses and compared to intake values derived by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). The intake benchmark dose lower confidence limit (BMDL₅) of 0.82 was similar to 0.86 ng/kg BW/day for altered serum cholesterol levels derived by EFSA, whereas the intake BMDL₅ of 6.88 was six-fold higher than the value of 1.14 ng/kg BW/day for altered antibody titer also derived by the EFSA. Application of a chemical-specific adjustment factor (CSAF) of 1.4, allowing for inter-individual variability in kinetics, based on biological half-life, gave an intake BMDL₅ of 0.59 for serum cholesterol and 4.91 (ng/kg BW/day), for decreased antibody titer, which were 0.69 and 4.31 the EFSA-derived values, respectively. The corresponding BMDL₅ for drinking water concentrations, for estrogen receptor binding activation associated with breast cancer, pregnane X receptor binding associated with altered serum cholesterol levels, thyroid hormone receptor α binding leading to thyroid disease, and decreased antibody titer (pro-inflammation from cytokines) were 0.883, 0.139, 0.086, and 0.295 ng/ml, respectively, with application of no uncertainty factors. These concentrations are 5.7-, 36-, 58.5-, and 16.9-fold lower than the median measured drinking water level for the general US population which is approximately, 5 ng/ml.

Endocrine disrupting chemicals: strategies to protect present and future generations

Introduction: Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are chemicals that alter the actions of hormones. In the 21^st Century, numerous expert groups of clinicians, scientists, and environmental activists have called for action to protect present and future generations from the harm induced by EDC exposures. These demands for regulatory responses come because of the strong weight of the evidence from epidemiology, wildlife, and controlled laboratory studies.Areas covered: In this review, we examine the conclusions drawn by experts from different scientific and medical disciplines. We also address several areas where recent findings or work has changed the landscape of EDC work including new approaches to identify and evaluate the evidence for EDCs using a key characteristics approach, the need to expand our understanding of vulnerable periods of development, and the increasing concern that traditional methods used to evaluate toxicity of environmental chemicals are insufficient for EDCs and how collaborative science could help to address these gaps.Expert opinion: The science is clear: there is more than enough evidence to demonstrate that EDCs affect the health of humans and wildlife. Waiting to act is a decision that puts the health of current and future generations at risk.

The E-Morph Assay: Identification and characterization of environmental chemicals with estrogenic activity based on quantitative changes in cell-cell contact organization of breast cancer cells

Adverse health effects that are caused by endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in the environment, food or consumer products are of high public concern. The identification and characterization of EDCs including substances with estrogenic activity still necessitates the use of animal testing as most of the approved alternative test methods only address single mechanistic events of endocrine activity. Therefore, novel human-relevant in vitro assays covering more complex functional endpoints of adversity, including hormone-related tumor formation and progression, are needed. This study describes the development and evaluation of a novel high-throughput screening-compatible assay called "E-Morph Assay". This image-based phenotypic screening assay facilitates robust predictions of the estrogenic potential of environmental chemicals using quantitative changes in the cell-cell contact morphology of human breast cancer cells as a novel functional endpoint. Based on a classification model, which was developed using six reference substances with known estrogenic activity, the E-Morph Assay correctly classified an additional set of 11 reference chemicals commonly used in OECD Test Guidelines and the U.S. EPA ToxCast program. For each of the tested substances, a relative ER bioactivity score was derived that allowed their grouping into four main categories of estrogenic activity, i.e. 'strong' (>0.9; four substances, i.e. natural hormones or pharmaceutical products), 'moderate' (0.9-0.6; six substances, i.e. phytoestrogens and Bisphenol AF), 'weak' (<0.6; three substances, i.e Bisphenol S, B, and A), and 'negative' (0.0; four substances). The E-Morph Assay considerably expands the portfolio of test methods providing the possibility to characterize the influence of environmental chemicals on estrogen-dependent tumor progression.

A Gene Expression Biomarker Identifies Chemical Modulators of Estrogen Receptor α in an MCF-7 Microarray Compendium

Identification of chemicals that affect hormone-regulated systems will help to predict endocrine disruption. In our previous study, a 46 gene biomarker was found to be an accurate predictor of estrogen receptor (ER) α modulation in chemically treated MCF-7 cells. Here, potential ERα modulators were identified using the biomarker by screening a microarray compendium consisting of ∼1600 gene expression comparisons representing exposure to ∼1200 chemicals. A total of ∼170 chemicals were identified as potential ERα modulators. In the Connectivity Map 2.0 collection, 75 and 39 chemicals were predicted to activate or suppress ERα, and they included 12 and six known ERα agonists and antagonists/selective ERα modulators, respectively. Nineteen and eight of the total number were also identified as active in an ERα transactivation assay carried out in an MCF-7-derived cell line used to screen the Tox21 10K chemical library in agonist or antagonist modes, respectively. Chemicals predicted to modulate ERα in MCF-7 cells were examined further using global and targeted gene expression in wild-type and ERα-null cells, transactivation assays, and cell-free ERα coregulator interaction assays. Environmental chemicals classified as weak and very weak agonists were confirmed to activate ERα including apigenin, kaempferol, and oxybenzone. Novel activators included digoxin, nabumetone, ivermectin, and six progestins. Novel suppressors included emetine, mifepristone, niclosamide, and proscillaridin. Our strategy will be useful to identify environmentally relevant ERα modulators in future high-throughput transcriptomic screens.

Beyond adverse outcome pathways: making toxicity predictions from event networks, SAR models, data and knowledge

Adverse outcome pathways have shown themselves to be useful ways of understanding and expressing knowledge about sequences of events that lead to adverse outcomes (AOs) such as toxicity. In this paper we use the building blocks of adverse outcome pathways-namely key events (KEs) and key event relationships-to construct networks which can be used to make predictions of the likelihood of AOs. The networks of KEs are augmented by data from and knowledge about assays as well as by structure activity relationship predictions linking chemical classes to the observation of KEs. These inputs are combined within a reasoning framework to produce an information-rich display of the relevant knowledge and data and predictions of AOs both in the abstract case and for individual chemicals. Illustrative examples are given for skin sensitization, reprotoxicity and non-genotoxic carcinogenicity.

Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals' (EDCs) Effects on Tumour Microenvironment and Cancer Progression: Emerging Contribution of RACK1

Endocrine disruptors (EDCs) can display estrogenic and androgenic effects, and their exposure has been linked to increased cancer risk. EDCs have been shown to directly affect cancer cell regulation and progression, but their influence on tumour microenvironment is still not completely elucidated. In this context, the signalling hub protein RACK1 (Receptor for Activated C Kinase 1) could represent a nexus between cancer and the immune system due to its roles in cancer progression and innate immune activation. Since RACK1 is a relevant EDCs target that responds to steroid-active compounds, it could be considered a molecular bridge between the endocrine-regulated tumour microenvironment and the innate immune system. We provide an analysis of immunomodulatory and cancer-promoting effects of different EDCs in shaping tumour microenvironment, with a final focus on the scaffold protein RACK1 as a pivotal molecular player due to its dual role in immune and cancer contexts.

In vitro-in silico-based probabilistic risk assessment of combined exposure to bisphenol A and its analogues by integrating ToxCast high-throughput in vitro assays with in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) via physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling

Combined risk assessment of endocrine effects of bisphenol A (BPA) and its analogues, such as bisphenols S, F, and AF (BPS, BPF, and BPAF), is challenging due to lack of related common toxicity metrics. This study conducted a population-based in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models coupled with Monte Carlo simulations to convert ToxCast in vitro estrogen receptor (ER) assays to human equivalent doses (HEDs). The ER pathway-based HEDs were compared with HEDs from animal studies and used to assess the combined risks for different populations across different countries/regions in a probabilistic manner. The estimated ER pathway-based HEDs for the four bisphenols (BPs) matched the animal-derived HEDs. The HEDs for the ER gene transcription (the common biological process target among BPs) were 0.40 (2.5th-97.5th percentiles: 0.06-5.42), 4.43 (0.69-53.84), 3.30 (0.51-626.57), and 1.12 (0.16-9.73) mg/kg/day for BPA, BPS, BPF, and BPAF, respectively. Results suggest a potentially moderate concern for combined risks of activating the ER pathway for toddlers and adults with high dietary exposures. This study presents in vitro-based credible HEDs for the four BPs and represents an advancement in the application of in vitro-in silico-based alternative approaches in human health risk assessment.

Machine Learning Models for Estrogen Receptor Bioactivity and Endocrine Disruption Prediction

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) periodically releases in vitro data across a variety of targets, including the estrogen receptor (ER). In 2015, the EPA used these data to construct mathematical models of ER agonist and antagonist pathways to prioritize chemicals for endocrine disruption testing. However, mathematical models require in vitro data prior to predicting estrogenic activity, but machine learning methods are capable of prospective prediction from the molecular structure alone. The current study describes the generation and evaluation of Bayesian machine learning models grouped by the EPA's ER agonist pathway model using multiple data types with proprietary software, Assay Central. External predictions with three test sets of in vitro and in vivo reference chemicals with agonist activity classifications were compared to previous mathematical model publications. Training data sets were subjected to additional machine learning algorithms and compared with rank normalized scores of internal five-fold cross-validation statistics. External predictions were found to be comparable or superior to previous studies published by the EPA. When assessing six additional algorithms for the training data sets, Assay Central performed similarly at a reduced computational cost. This study demonstrates that machine learning can prioritize chemicals for future in vitro and in vivo testing of ER agonism.

Selecting a minimal set of androgen receptor assays for screening chemicals

Screening certain environmental chemicals for their ability to interact with endocrine targets, including the androgen receptor (AR), is an important global concern. We previously developed a model using a battery of eleven in vitro AR assays to predict in vivo AR activity. Here we describe a revised mathematical modeling approach that also incorporates data from newly available assays and demonstrate that subsets of assays can provide close to the same level of predictivity. These subset models are evaluated against the full model using 1820 chemicals, as well as in vitro and in vivo reference chemicals from the literature. Agonist batteries of as few as six assays and antagonist batteries of as few as five assays can yield balanced accuracies of 95% or better relative to the full model. Balanced accuracy for predicting reference chemicals is 100%. An approach is outlined for researchers to develop their own subset batteries to accurately detect AR activity using assays that map to the pathway of key molecular and cellular events involved in chemical-mediated AR activation and transcriptional activity. This work indicates in vitro bioactivity and in silico predictions that map to the AR pathway could be used in an integrated approach to testing and assessment for identifying chemicals that interact directly with the mammalian AR.

The EU-ToxRisk method documentation, data processing and chemical testing pipeline for the regulatory use of new approach methods

Hazard assessment, based on new approach methods (NAM), requires the use of batteries of assays, where individual tests may be contributed by different laboratories. A unified strategy for such collaborative testing is presented. It details all procedures required to allow test information to be usable for integrated hazard assessment, strategic project decisions and/or for regulatory purposes. The EU-ToxRisk project developed a strategy to provide regulatorily valid data, and exemplified this using a panel of > 20 assays (with > 50 individual endpoints), each exposed to 19 well-known test compounds (e.g. rotenone, colchicine, mercury, paracetamol, rifampicine, paraquat, taxol). Examples of strategy implementation are provided for all aspects required to ensure data validity: (i) documentation of test methods in a publicly accessible database; (ii) deposition of standard operating procedures (SOP) at the European Union DB-ALM repository; (iii) test readiness scoring accoding to defined criteria; (iv) disclosure of the pipeline for data processing; (v) link of uncertainty measures and metadata to the data; (vi) definition of test chemicals, their handling and their behavior in test media; (vii) specification of the test purpose and overall evaluation plans. Moreover, data generation was exemplified by providing results from 25 reporter assays. A complete evaluation of the entire test battery will be described elsewhere. A major learning from the retrospective analysis of this large testing project was the need for thorough definitions of the above strategy aspects, ideally in form of a study pre-registration, to allow adequate interpretation of the data and to ensure overall scientific/toxicological validity.

Single-Cell Distribution Analysis of AR Levels by High-Throughput Microscopy in Cell Models: Application for Testing Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals

Cell-to-cell variation of protein expression in genetically homogeneous populations is a common biological trait often neglected during analysis of high-throughput (HT) screens and is rarely used as a metric to characterize chemicals. We have captured single-cell distributions of androgen receptor (AR) nuclear levels after perturbations as a means to evaluate assay reproducibility and characterize a small subset of chemicals. AR, a member of the nuclear receptor family of transcription factors, is the central regulator of male reproduction and is involved in many pathophysiological processes. AR protein levels and nuclear localization often increase following ligand binding, with dihydrotestosterone (DHT) being the natural agonist. HT AR immunofluorescence imaging was used in multiple cell lines to define single-cell nuclear values extracted from thousands of cells per condition treated with DHT or DMSO (control). Analysis of numerous biological replicates led to a quality control metric that takes into account the distribution of single-cell data, and how it changes upon treatments. Dose-response experiments across several cell lines showed a large range of sensitivity to DHT, prompting us to treat selected cell lines with 45 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-provided chemicals that include many endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs); data from six of the compounds were then integrated with orthogonal assays. Our comprehensive results indicate that quantitative single-cell distribution analysis of AR protein levels is a valid method to detect the potential androgenic and antiandrogenic actions of environmentally relevant chemicals in a sensitive and reproducible manner.

The role of fit-for-purpose assays within tiered testing approaches: A case study evaluating prioritized estrogen-active compounds in an in vitro human uterotrophic assay

Chemical risk assessment relies on toxicity tests that require significant numbers of animals, time and costs. For the >30,000 chemicals in commerce, the current scale of animal testing is insufficient to address chemical safety concerns as regulatory and product stewardship considerations evolve to require more comprehensive understanding of potential biological effects, conditions of use, and associated exposures. We demonstrate the use of a multi-level new approach methodology (NAMs) strategy for hazard- and risk-based prioritization to reduce animal testing. A Level 1/2 chemical prioritization based on estrogen receptor (ER) activity and metabolic activation using ToxCast data was used to select 112 chemicals for testing in a Level 3 human uterine cell estrogen response assay (IKA assay). The Level 3 data were coupled with quantitative in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (Q-IVIVE) to support bioactivity determination (as a surrogate for hazard) in a tissue-specific context. Assay AC₅₀s and Q-IVIVE were used to estimate human equivalent doses (HEDs), and HEDs were compared to rodent uterotrophic assay in vivo-derived points of departure (PODs). For substances active both in vitro and in vivo, IKA assay-derived HEDs were lower or equivalent to in vivo PODs for 19/23 compounds (83%). Activity exposure relationships were calculated, and the IKA assay was as or more protective of human health than the rodent uterotrophic assay for all IKA-positive compounds. This study demonstrates the utility of biologically relevant fit-for-purpose assays and supports the use of a multi-level strategy for chemical risk assessment.

Development of a prioritization method for chemical-mediated effects on steroidogenesis using an integrated statistical analysis of high-throughput H295R data

Synthesis of 11 steroid hormones in human adrenocortical carcinoma cells (H295R) was measured in a high-throughput steroidogenesis assay (HT-H295R) for 656 chemicals in concentration-response as part of the US Environmental Protection Agency's ToxCast program. This work extends previous analysis of the HT-H295R dataset and model by examining the utility of a novel prioritization metric based on the Mahalanobis distance that reduced these 11-dimensional data to 1-dimension via calculation of a mean Mahalanobis distance (mMd) at each chemical concentration screened for all hormone measures available. Herein, we evaluated the robustness of mMd values, and demonstrate that covariance and variance of the hormones measured appear independent of the chemicals screened and are inherent to the assay; the Type I error rate of the mMd method is less than 1%; and, absolute fold changes (up or down) of 1.5 to 2-fold have sufficient power for statistical significance. As a case study, we examined hormone responses for aromatase inhibitors in the HT-H295R assay and found high concordance with other ToxCast assays for known aromatase inhibitors. Finally, we used mMd and other ToxCast cytotoxicity data to demonstrate prioritization of the most selective and active chemicals as candidates for further in vitro or in silico screening.

Building and Applying Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathway Models for Chemical Hazard and Risk Assessment

An important goal in toxicology is the development of new ways to increase the speed, accuracy, and applicability of chemical hazard and risk assessment approaches. A promising route is the integration of in vitro assays with biological pathway information. We examined how the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework can be used to develop pathway-based quantitative models useful for regulatory chemical safety assessment. By using AOPs as initial conceptual models and the AOP knowledge base as a source of data on key event relationships, different methods can be applied to develop computational quantitative AOP models (qAOPs) relevant for decision making. A qAOP model may not necessarily have the same structure as the AOP it is based on. Useful AOP modeling methods range from statistical, Bayesian networks, regression, and ordinary differential equations to individual-based models and should be chosen according to the questions being asked and the data available. We discuss the need for toxicokinetic models to provide linkages between exposure and qAOPs, to extrapolate from in vitro to in vivo, and to extrapolate across species. Finally, we identify best practices for modeling and model building and the necessity for transparent and comprehensive documentation to gain confidence in the use of qAOP models and ultimately their use in regulatory applications. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:1850-1865. © 2019 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

Evaluating Chemicals for Thyroid Disruption: Opportunities and Challenges with in Vitro Testing and Adverse Outcome Pathway Approaches

BACKGROUND

Extensive clinical and experimental research documents the potential for chemical disruption of thyroid hormone (TH) signaling through multiple molecular targets. Perturbation of TH signaling can lead to abnormal brain development, cognitive impairments, and other adverse outcomes in humans and wildlife. To increase chemical safety screening efficiency and reduce vertebrate animal testing, in vitro assays that identify chemical interactions with molecular targets of the thyroid system have been developed and implemented.

OBJECTIVES

We present an adverse outcome pathway (AOP) network to link data derived from in vitro assays that measure chemical interactions with thyroid molecular targets to downstream events and adverse outcomes traditionally derived from in vivo testing. We examine the role of new in vitro technologies, in the context of the AOP network, in facilitating consideration of several important regulatory and biological challenges in characterizing chemicals that exert effects through a thyroid mechanism.

DISCUSSION

There is a substantial body of knowledge describing chemical effects on molecular and physiological regulation of TH signaling and associated adverse outcomes. Until recently, few alternative nonanimal assays were available to interrogate chemical effects on TH signaling. With the development of these new tools, screening large libraries of chemicals for interactions with molecular targets of the thyroid is now possible. Measuring early chemical interactions with targets in the thyroid pathway provides a means of linking adverse outcomes, which may be influenced by many biological processes, to a thyroid mechanism. However, the use of in vitro assays beyond chemical screening is complicated by continuing limits in our knowledge of TH signaling in important life stages and tissues, such as during fetal brain development. Nonetheless, the thyroid AOP network provides an ideal tool for defining causal linkages of a chemical exerting thyroid-dependent effects and identifying research needs to quantify these effects in support of regulatory decision making. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5297.

Identifying Compounds with Genotoxicity Potential Using Tox21 High-Throughput Screening Assays

Genotoxicity is a critical component of a comprehensive toxicological profile. The Tox21 Program used five quantitative high-throughput screening (qHTS) assays measuring some aspect of DNA damage/repair to provide information on the genotoxic potential of over 10 000 compounds. Included were assays detecting activation of p53, increases in the DNA repair protein ATAD5, phosphorylation of H2AX, and enhanced cytotoxicity in DT40 cells deficient in DNA-repair proteins REV3 or KU70/RAD54. Each assay measures a distinct component of the DNA damage response signaling network; >70% of active compounds were detected in only one of the five assays. When qHTS results were compared with results from three standard genotoxicity assays (bacterial mutation, in vitro chromosomal aberration, and in vivo micronucleus), a maximum of 40% of known, direct-acting genotoxicants were active in one or more of the qHTS genotoxicity assays, indicating low sensitivity. This suggests that these qHTS assays cannot in their current form be used to replace traditional genotoxicity assays. However, despite the low sensitivity, ranking chemicals by potency of response in the qHTS assays revealed an enrichment for genotoxicants up to 12-fold compared with random selection, when allowing a 1% false positive rate. This finding indicates these qHTS assays can be used to prioritize chemicals for further investigation, allowing resources to focus on compounds most likely to induce genotoxic effects. To refine this prioritization process, models for predicting the genotoxicity potential of chemicals that were active in Tox21 genotoxicity assays were constructed using all Tox21 assay data, yielding a prediction accuracy up to 0.83. Data from qHTS assays related to stress-response pathway signaling (including genotoxicity) were the most informative for model construction. By using the results from qHTS genotoxicity assays, predictions from models based on qHTS data, and predictions from commercial bacterial mutagenicity QSAR models, we prioritized Tox21 chemicals for genotoxicity characterization.

A general dose-response relationship for chronic chemical and other health stressors and mixtures based on an emergent illness severity model

Current efforts to assess human health response to chemicals based on high-throughput in vitro assay data on intra-cellular changes have been hindered for some illnesses by lack of information on higher-level extracellular, inter-organ, and organism-level interactions. However, a dose-response function (DRF), informed by various levels of information including apical health response, can represent a template for convergent top-down, bottom-up analysis. In this paper, a general DRF for chronic chemical and other health stressors and mixtures is derived based on a general first-order model previously derived and demonstrated for illness progression. The derivation accounts for essential autocorrelation among initiating event magnitudes along a toxicological mode of action, typical of complex processes in general, and reveals the inverse relationship between the minimum illness-inducing dose, and the illness severity per unit dose (both variable across a population). The resulting emergent DRF is theoretically scale-inclusive and amenable to low-dose extrapolation. The two-parameter single-toxicant version can be monotonic or sigmoidal, and is demonstrated preferable to traditional models (multistage, lognormal, generalized linear) for the published cancer and non-cancer datasets analyzed: chloroform (induced liver necrosis in female mice); bromate (induced dysplastic focia in male inbred rats); and 2-acetylaminofluorene (induced liver neoplasms and bladder carcinomas in 20,328 female mice). Common- and dissimilar-mode mixture models are demonstrated versus orthogonal data on toluene/benzene mixtures (mortality in Japanese medaka, Oryzias latipes, following embryonic exposure). Findings support previous empirical demonstration, and also reveal how a chemical with a typical monotonically-increasing DRF can display a J-shaped DRF when a second, antagonistic common-mode chemical is present. Overall, the general DRF derived here based on an autocorrelated first-order model appears to provide both a strong theoretical/biological basis for, as well as an accurate statistical description of, a diverse, albeit small, sample of observed dose-response data. The further generalizability of this conclusion can be tested in future analyses comparing with traditional modeling approaches across a broader range of datasets.

A Mechanistic Framework for Integrating Chemical Structure and High-Throughput Screening Results to Improve Toxicity Predictions

Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) establish a connection between a molecular initiating event (MIE) and an adverse outcome. Detailed understanding of the MIE provides the ideal data for determining chemical properties required to elicit the MIE. This study utilized high-throughput screening data from the ToxCast program, coupled with chemical structural information, to generate chemical clusters using three similarity methods pertaining to nine MIEs within an AOP network for hepatic steatosis. Three case studies demonstrate the utility of the mechanistic information held by the MIE for integrating biological and chemical data. Evaluation of the chemical clusters activating the glucocorticoid receptor identified activity differences in chemicals within a cluster. Comparison of the estrogen receptor results with previous work showed that bioactivity data and structural alerts can be combined to improve predictions in a customizable way where bioactivity data are limited. The aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) highlighted that while structural data can be used to offset limited data for new screening efforts, not all ToxCast targets have sufficient data to define robust chemical clusters. In this context, an alternative to additional receptor assays is proposed where assays for proximal key events downstream of AHR activation could be used to enhance confidence in active calls. These case studies illustrate how the AOP framework can support an iterative process whereby in vitro toxicity testing and chemical structure can be combined to improve toxicity predictions. In vitro assays can inform the development of structural alerts linking chemical structure to toxicity. Consequently, structurally related chemical groups can facilitate identification of assays that would be informative for a specific MIE. Together, these activities form a virtuous cycle where the mechanistic basis for the in vitro results and the breadth of the structural alerts continually improve over time to better predict activity of chemicals for which limited toxicity data exist.