Use of limited color-flow duplex for a carotid screening project

Validation of Risk Prediction Models to Detect Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis

Background Significant asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS) is associated with higher risk of strokes. While the prevalence of moderate and severe ACS is low in the general population, prediction models may allow identification of individuals at increased risk, thereby enabling targeted screening. We identified established prediction models for ACS and externally validated them in a large screening population. Methods and Results Prediction models for prevalent cases with ≥50% ACS were identified in a systematic review (975 studies reviewed and 6 prediction models identified [3 for moderate and 3 for severe ACS]) and then validated using data from 596 469 individuals who attended commercial vascular screening clinics in the United States and United Kingdom. We assessed discrimination and calibration. In the validation cohort, 11 178 (1.87%) participants had ≥50% ACS and 2033 (0.34%) had ≥70% ACS. The best model included age, sex, smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, vascular and cerebrovascular disease, measured blood pressure, and blood lipids. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for this model was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74-0.75) for ≥50% ACS and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77-0.79) for ≥70% ACS. The prevalence of ≥50% ACS in the highest decile of risk was 6.51%, and 1.42% for ≥70% ACS. Targeted screening of the 10% highest risk identified 35% of cases with ≥50% ACS and 42% of cases with ≥70% ACS. Conclusions Individuals at high risk of significant ACS can be selected reliably using a prediction model. The best-performing prediction models identified over one third of all cases by targeted screening of individuals in the highest decile of risk only.

Rapid High-Volume Population Screening for Three Major Risk Factors of Future Stroke: Phase I Results

Three proximate risk factors for stroke are carotid stenosis, atrial fibrillation, and hypertension. Phase I of this prospective study was designed to establish the prevalence of these conditions among a population of health maintenance organization beneficiaries by using a rapid screening protocol in order to risk-stratify patients for appropriate management and subsequent cohort analysis. Patients at a tertiary care medical center were screened for stroke risk by using directed history, a 3-minute carotid “quick-scan” protocol, an EKG lead II rhythm strip, and bilateral arm blood pressures. Patients with any abnormal result underwent specific diagnostic consultation with vascular surgery, cardiology, or primary care. These evaluations included formal carotid duplex ultrasound, 12-lead EKG ± Holter monitor, and 5-day blood pressure check. Patients were then stratified into risk cohorts for appropriate management and future analysis of stroke incidence and outcomes. In 8 hours on a single day in October 2002, 294 patients (mean age 69) were screened. Combining history with results of screening and diagnostic tests, the overall prevalence of carotid stenosis was 6% (n= 17/294), atrial fibrillation 7% (n= 21/294), and severe hypertension 5% (n= 16/294). Fifty-nine patients (20%) screened positive for carotid stenosis by “quick-scan,” and 29% (n= 17/59) of these had confirmed stenosis (>50%) in 1 or both arteries by formal duplex. The prevalence of confirmed carotid stenosis was 37% among those screening positive for 1 artery (odds ratio [OR] 14.6; p <0.001) and 75% among those screening positive for both (OR 74.7; p <0.001). Significant independent predictors of carotid stenosis by multivariate analysis included coronary artery disease or myocardial infarction, smoking, stroke or transient ischemic attack, male gender, and white race (all p <0.05). The prevalence of confirmed stenosis was 10% with any 3 predictors alone (OR 2.5; p <0.05), 31% with any 4 (OR 21.2; p <0.001), and 50% with all 5 (OR 46.5; p <0.001). Thirty-three patients (11%) were found to have a previously unidentified and untreated arrhythmia, and 12% (n= 4/33) of these had confirmed new atrial fibrillation; 158 patients (54%) had moderate hypertension and 16 (5%) had severe hypertension (>180/100). Overall, 82% (n= 242/294) of patients screened required additional diagnostic tests. Based on these results, 11% (n= 31/294) of patients were stratified as high risk, 64% (n= 188/294) as moderate risk, and 25% (n= 75/294) as low risk for future stroke. Rapid and efficient screening of a large population for stroke risk factors is feasible. The prevalence of undiagnosed, unsurveilled, and untreated carotid stenosis, atrial fibrillation, and severe hypertension is significant, as 75% of patients screened had 1 or more confirmed major risk factors for stroke. Phase II of this study will investigate the degree of stroke risk reduction possible with a multidisciplinary approach to early identification and aggressive treatment of these risks.

Carotid stenosis: what is the high-risk population?

OBJECTIVE

Prevention is the best treatment for cerebrovascular disease, which is why early diagnosis and the immediate treatment of carotid stenosis contribute significantly to reducing the incidence of stroke. Given its silent nature, 80% of stroke cases occur in asymptomatic individuals, emphasizing the importance of screening individuals with carotid stenosis and identifying high-risk groups for the disease. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and the most frequent risk factors for carotid stenosis.

METHODS

A transversal study was conducted in the form of a stroke prevention campaign held on three nonconsecutive Saturdays. During the sessions, carotid stenosis diagnostic procedures were performed for 500 individuals aged 60 years or older who had systemic arterial hypertension and/or diabetes mellitus and/or coronary heart disease and/or a family history of stroke.

RESULTS

The prevalence of carotid stenosis in the population studied was 7.4%, and the most frequent risk factors identified were mean age of 70 years, carotid bruit, peripheral obstructive arterial disease, coronary insufficiency and smoking. Independent predictive factors of carotid stenosis include the presence of carotid bruit or peripheral obstructive arterial disease [corrected] and/or coronary insufficiency.

CONCLUSIONS

The population with peripheral obstructive arterial disease [corrected] and/or coronary insufficiency and carotid bruit should undergo routine screening for carotid stenosis.

Screening for Significant Carotid Artery Disease among a Cohort of 1,000 Egyptian Patients

The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of significant carotid artery disease (SCAD) in a cohort of Egyptian patients to compare it with matched groups of patients in published data of Western populations. One thousand consecutive patients referred for color flow duplex scanning of the carotid arteries were included. SCAD was defined as carotid stenosis ≥ 50% or occlusion. There were 567 males (56.7%), and the mean age was 60.4 years. There were 382 (38.2%) patients presenting with and 617 (61.7%) patients without specific carotid territory symptoms. SCAD was significantly more prevalent in patients aged ≥ 60 (13.2%, vs 6.25%; p < .001), in symptomatic patients (16.45% vs 6.32%; p < .001), in diabetics (15.96% vs 7.39%; p < .001), in patients with ischemic heart disease (17.65% vs 7.22%; p < .001), in hypertensive patients (12% vs 7.54%; p = .025), and in patients with dyslipidemia (12.53% vs 6.56%; p < .025). The prevalence of SCAD in this cohort of Egyptian patients was similar to that of matched patients of Western populations. Screening for SCAD in patients with specific carotid territory symptoms is recommended. Screening of asymptomatic subjects could be considered if they are ≥ 60 years of age and have three or more associated risk factors.

First-year results of a community peripheral vascular screening program at an academic community hospital

Disease associated with the vascular system, including peripheral arterial disease, poses a serious health problem with incidence growing annually. Recognizing this, several health care organizations across the United States have developed programs for public education and community awareness, and for screening individuals at risk for vascular disease. Lehigh Valley Hospital developed and implemented a screening program that evaluated more than 160 individuals during a 12-month period. Results suggest that screening should be limited to patients at high risk; however, the intrinsic value of patient education and patient peace of mind is worth proceeding with the screening effort because patients reported a positive experience.

Optimal Peak Systolic Velocity Threshold at Duplex US for Determining the Need for Carotid Endarterectomy: A Decision Analytic Approach

PURPOSE

To determine the optimal peak systolic velocity (PSV) threshold at duplex ultrasonography (US) required to establish the need for carotid endarterectomy in symptomatic patients on the basis of the long-term cost-effectiveness outcomes of diagnostic testing and subsequent treatment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From January 1997 through January 2000, a prospective medical ethics committee-approved multicenter study was conducted. After giving informed consent, patients with amaurosis fugax, transient ischemic attack, or minor stroke who underwent duplex US and digital subtraction angiography were included in the study. Selective ipsilateral carotid angiograms were obtained in at least three planes. Arteries that were nearly or totally occluded at duplex US were excluded because the PSV cannot be reliably measured in these vessels. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for the diagnoses of 70%-99% and 50%-99% stenoses. Optimal likelihood ratios were calculated on the basis of lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years derived at cost-effectiveness analysis and the prevalence of disease. The associated optimal sensitivities, specificities, and PSV thresholds were derived from the ROC curves.

RESULTS

In this clinical study, 350 patients were included. The nonoccluded arteries in a total of 236 patients were assessable for ROC analysis. For the diagnosis of 70%-99% stenosis, the optimal likelihood ratio was 0.21, which was associated with a PSV threshold of 220 cm/sec, a sensitivity of 97% (127 of 131 patients; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 94%, 100%), and a specificity of 48% (50 of 105 patients; 95% CI: 38%, 57%). For the diagnosis of 50%-99% stenosis, the optimal likelihood ratio was 0.38, which was associated with a PSV threshold of 180 cm/sec, a sensitivity of 95% (182 of 191 patients; 95% CI: 92%, 98%), and a specificity of 69% (31 of 45 patients; 95% CI: 55%, 82%).

CONCLUSION

On the basis of the lifetime outcomes of diagnostic testing and subsequent treatment, the optimal PSV thresholds for the diagnosis of 70%-99% and 50%-99% carotid artery stenoses in patients with amaurosis fugax, transient ischemic attack, or minor stroke were 220 cm/sec and 180 cm/sec, respectively.

A New Approach for the Screening of Carotid Lesions: A ‘Fast-track’ Method with the Use of New Generation Hand-held Ultrasound Devices

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the usefulness of fast-track neck sonography with a new-generation hand-held ultrasound scanner in the detection of > or =60% carotid stenosis.

DESIGN

Patients with a past history of atherosclerotic disease or presence of risk factors were enrolled. All had fast-track carotid screening with a hand-held ultrasound scanner.

METHODS

Initial assessment was performed with our quick imaging protocol. A second examiner performed a conventional complete carotid duplex as gold-standard.

RESULTS

We enrolled 197 consecutive patients with a mean age of 67 years (range 35-94). A carotid stenosis >60% was detected in 13 cases (6%). The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value of fast-track sonography was 100%, 64%, 17% and 100%, respectively. Concomitant power Doppler imaging during the fast-track method did not improve accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of a fast-track method with a hand-held ultrasound device can reduce the number of unnecessary carotid Duplex and enhance the screening efficiency without missing significant carotid stenoses.

Focused screening for occult carotid artery disease: patients with known heart disease are at high risk

OBJECTIVES

Stroke puts a major financial burden on our healthcare system. However, carotid duplex scanning performed as a screening test for occult carotid artery stenosis (CAS) currently is not reimbursed by Medicare. The goals of this study were to develop a cost-effective stroke screening program, to determine the prevalence of potential causes of stroke in this population, and to define a population at high risk in which screening would be most effective.

METHODS

In a community-based stroke screening program, patients were eligible if they were older than 60 years and had a history of either hypertension, heart disease, or cigarette smoking, or a family history of stroke. Screening included blood pressure determination, an electrocardiographic rhythm strip, and a previously validated modified carotid duplex ultrasound examination to detect CAS 50% or greater. The relationships between standard demographic risk factors and screening outcomes were analyzed.

RESULTS

Screening was performed in 610 patients. Unilateral or bilateral CAS was detected in 66 patients (10.8%). The finding of occult CAS was more prevalent than that of new hypertension (2.6%) or new atrial fibrillation (0.5%). Patients with known hypertension were significantly more likely to have CAS than were those without hypertension (12.7% vs 7.8%; P =.05). Patients with heart disease were significantly more likely to have CAS than were those without heart disease (18.2% vs 8%; P <.0001). Patients with both risk factors were significantly more likely to have occult carotid artery disease than were patients without either risk factor (22.1% vs 8.5%; P <.0001). Multivariate analysis with logistic regression revealed a history of heart disease as an independent predictor of occult carotid artery disease (odds ratio 95% confidence interval, 1.4-4.4). Type of heart disease was not a significant factor in predicting occult CAS. Direct cost of the screening, including community outreach, nurses, technicians, support staff, and miscellaneous expenses, was less than $75 per patient.

CONCLUSIONS

In a screening program for treatable causes of potential stroke, CAS was the most commonly diagnosed disease. More than one of every five patients with known hypertension and heart disease had occult CAS. Known heart disease of any type was a significant independent predictor of occult CAS. Screening for treatable causes of potential stroke can be cost-effective. This information could help to further target populations to screen for occult CAS and to justify reimbursement for screening carotid duplex scanning examinations.

A model for predicting occult carotid artery stenosis: screening is justified in a selected population

OBJECTIVES

The diagnosis and treatment of carotid artery disease is an integral part of stroke prevention. However, a population of patients who would benefit from screening for carotid artery stenosis has not been well defined. As part of an institutional stroke-screening program, a modified, rapid duplex scan was developed to evaluate patients for occult carotid stenosis. The goal of this study was to evaluate risk factors predictive of carotid stenosis in a selected population, and to identify patients who would benefit from carotid screening.

METHODS

Patients were eligible for the study if they were >60 years of age and had a history of hypertension, heart disease, current smoking, or family history of stroke. A modified carotid duplex scan that had been previously validated against formal duplex scanning was utilized; this involved visualization of the carotid bulb and proximal internal carotid artery where Doppler flow velocities were obtained and recorded.

RESULTS

Screening was performed on 394 patients. Thirty-eight patients (9.6%) had either unilateral or bilateral carotid stenosis of > or =50%. Risk factors evaluated included smoking, hypertension, cardiac disease, or hypercholesterolemia. If none of these risk factors was present, the incidence of carotid stenosis was 1.8%. This increased to 5.8% with one risk factor, 13.5% with two risk factors, and 16.7% with three risk factors. Two of three patients with all four risk factors had carotid stenosis (66.7%). Logistic regression and prespecified contrast statements for multiple comparisons were used to assess the relationship between the presence of risk factors and occult carotid artery stenosis. The presence of any one of these risk factors was associated with a statistically significant increase in the presence of occult carotid stenosis (P <.01). This was also statistically significant for the presence of any two risk factors (P <.01) or three risk factors (P <.05).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of carotid stenosis significantly increases with the presence of one or more identifiable demographic risk factors in a selected population. Assuming the diagnosis and treatment of carotid stenosis are fundamental to stroke prevention, screening for carotid artery disease is justified in this group of patients.

Screening test for carotid disease

Because cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in the United States, the identification of a screening test to reduce the risk of stroke has been a long-term goal of those interested in public health. The recent European and North American randomized carotid endarterectomy trials have demonstrated that both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients with internal carotid artery stenosis may experience a reduction of stroke risk when treated with endarterectomy. Thus the detection of occult carotid stenosis has been proposed as a stroke-reducing method. US has been studied both as a solitary screening method and in conjunction with hypertension and cardiac arrhythmia screening. This article reviews the methods proposed for US carotid artery screening, the reported accuracy of these methods, and issues of cost- and clinical effectiveness.

Spiral computed tomography angiography (SCTA) and color coded duplex ultrasound (CCDUS): two complementary diagnostic techniques for assessment of extracranial cerebral artery stenosis

Atherosclerotic lesions of the extracranial cerebral arteries account for ischemic stroke in over half of all cases. The risk of stroke associated with symptomatic carotid artery disease is related to the severity of the stenosis. Results of the two major clinical trials, North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial (NASCET) and European Carotid Surgery Trial (ECST), showed that patients with symptomatic carotid artery disease may benefit from carotid endarterectomy. Therefore, detection and quantification of stenosis are essential. Discrepancies in the angiographic criteria used in both NASCET and ECST trials resulted in continued controversy about the most accurate method of measuring carotid artery stenosis. Moreover, to avoid complications related to the angiography procedure, a good evaluation of vessel wall and plaque composition need to be considered. Both SCTA and CCDUS are non invasive techniques that could overcome angiographic complications and give detailed information on stenosis grading and plaque characteristics. They have been used to evaluate carotid stenosis as a single or combined methods.

Doppler velocity criteria based on receiver operating characteristic analysis for the detection of threshold carotid stenoses

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Duplex scanning is an accepted method for noninvasive evaluation of carotid stenosis. However, the ultrasound criteria used for the detection of threshold stenoses vary widely between laboratories, and quality assurance measures to allow adjustment of criteria are often lacking. This study was completed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to determine Doppler velocity criteria for threshold carotid stenoses, compared to an accepted standard, and to demonstrate methods to allow adjustment of criteria.

METHODS

The study cohort included 134 patients who had carotid endarterectomy. Ultrasound and arteriographic data were collected for both the operated and nonoperated sides. Each carotid artery was treated as an independent case in the final analysis. Angiograms were used as the gold standard in ROC analysis to determine the Doppler velocity criteria for the detection of different threshold stenoses.

RESULTS

The ROC analysis results showed that for the detection of 70% stenosis, the best Doppler systolic criterion was 200 cm/s (sensitivity 93.6%, specificity 71.7%, area under the curve [AUC] 87.6%), the best diastolic criterion was 65 cm/s (sensitivity 85.1%, specificity 74.6%, AUC 84.3%), and the best criterion of carotid ratio (CR) (internal carotid artery systolic velocity/common carotid artery systolic velocity) was 3.0 (sensitivity 78.7%, specificity 75.4%, AUC 81.3%). For 50% stenosis, the best systolic criterion was 140 cm/s (sensitivity 90.3%, specificity 95.2%, AUC 97.0%), the best diastolic criterion was 60 cm/s (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 77.8%, AUC 92.1%), and the best criterion of CR was 2.5 (sensitivity 93.1%, specificity 72.0%, AUC 89.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that duplex scanning is able to detect threshold carotid stenoses. For the best performance, each laboratory should have its own criteria; however, the criteria provided here could be a helpful reference to those laboratories that have not yet established their own criteria. Most important, this study provides an example of how to evaluate the performance criteria, how to modify them, how such changes can affect performance, and how performance can be modified depending on the goals of the laboratory.

Carotid artery stenosis and endarterectomy

This article reviews the disease process of carotid artery stenosis, its symptomatology, and prognosis for progression to ischemic stroke. Indications for both medical and surgical treatment are reviewed as is criteria for surgical categorization as specified by the American Heart Association guidelines for carotid endarterectomy. Although diagnostic testing, medical treatment and alternative therapy options of angioplasty, stenting and thrombolysis are presented, a thorough overview of the surgical procedure of carotid endarterectomy is the major focus of discussion, as it remains the "gold standard" of treatment for severe carotid artery stenosis.