Oscillations in cyclical neutropenia: new evidence based on mathematical modeling

Computational modeling reveals key factors driving treatment-free remission in chronic myeloid leukemia patients

Patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) who receive tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) have been known to achieve treatment-free remission (TFR) upon discontinuing treatment. However, the underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon remain incompletely understood. This study aims to elucidate the mechanism of TFR in CML patients, focusing on the feedback interaction between leukemia stem cells and the bone marrow microenvironment. We have developed a mathematical model to explore the interplay between leukemia stem cells and the bone marrow microenvironment, allowing for the simulation of CML progression dynamics. Our proposed model reveals a dichotomous response following TKI discontinuation, with two distinct patient groups emerging: one prone to early molecular relapse and the other capable of achieving long-term TFR after treatment cessation. This finding aligns with clinical observations and underscores the essential role of feedback interaction between leukemic cells and the tumor microenvironment in sustaining TFR. Notably, we have shown that the ratio of leukemia cells in peripheral blood (PBLC) and the tumor microenvironment (TME) index can be a valuable predictive tool for identifying patients likely to achieve TFR after discontinuing treatment. This study provides fresh insights into the mechanism of TFR in CML patients and underscores the significance of microenvironmental control in achieving TFR.

Dynamics of cell-type transition mediated by epigenetic modifications

Maintaining tissue homeostasis requires appropriate regulation of stem cell differentiation. The Waddington landscape posits that gene circuits in a cell form a potential landscape of different cell types, wherein cells follow attractors of the probability landscape to develop into distinct cell types. However, how adult stem cells achieve a delicate balance between self-renewal and differentiation remains unclear. We propose that random inheritance of epigenetic states plays a pivotal role in stem cell differentiation and present a hybrid model of stem cell differentiation induced by epigenetic modifications. Our comprehensive model integrates gene regulation networks, epigenetic state inheritance, and cell regeneration, encompassing multi-scale dynamics ranging from transcription regulation to cell population. Through model simulations, we demonstrate that random inheritance of epigenetic states during cell divisions can spontaneously induce cell differentiation, dedifferentiation, and transdifferentiation. Furthermore, we investigate the influences of interfering with epigenetic modifications and introducing additional transcription factors on the probabilities of dedifferentiation and transdifferentiation, revealing the underlying mechanism of cell reprogramming. This in silico model provides valuable insights into the intricate mechanism governing stem cell differentiation and cell reprogramming and offers a promising path to enhance the field of regenerative medicine.

A mathematical model with aberrant growth correction in tissue homeostasis and tumor cell growth

Cancer is usually considered a genetic disease caused by alterations in genes that control cellular behaviors, especially growth and division. Cancer cells differ from normal tissue cells in many ways that allow them to grow out of control and become invasive. However, experiments have shown that aberrant growth in many tissues burdened with varying numbers of mutant cells can be corrected, and wild-type cells are required for the active elimination of mutant cells. These findings reveal the dynamic cellular behaviors that lead to a tissue homeostatic state when faced with mutational and nonmutational insults. The current study was motivated by these observations and established a mathematical model of how a tissue copes with the aberrant behavior of mutant cells. The proposed model depicts the interaction between wild-type and mutant cells through a system of two delay differential equations, which include the random mutation of normal cells and the active extrusion of mutant cells. Based on the proposed model, we performed qualitative analysis to identify the conditions of either normal tissue homeostasis or uncontrolled growth with varying numbers of abnormal mutant cells. Bifurcation analysis suggests the conditions of bistability with either a small or large number of mutant cells, the coexistence of bistable steady states can be clinically beneficial by driving the state of mutant cell predominance to the attraction basin of the state with a low number of mutant cells. This result is further confirmed by the treatment strategy obtained from optimal control theory.

Optimal treatment strategy of cancers with intratumor heterogeneity

Intratumor heterogeneity hinders the success of anti-cancer treatment due to the interaction between different types of cells. To recapitulate the communication of different types of cells, we developed a mathematical model to study the dynamic interaction between normal, drug-sensitive and drug-resistant cells in response to cancer treatment. Based on the proposed model, we first study the analytical conclusions, namely the nonnegativity and boundedness of solutions, and the existence and stability of steady states. Furthermore, to investigate the optimal treatment that minimizes both the cancer cells count and the total dose of drugs, we apply the Pontryagin's maximum(or minimum) principle (PMP) to explore the combination therapy strategy with either quadratic control or linear control functionals. We establish the existence and uniqueness of the quadratic control problem, and apply the forward-backward sweep method (FBSM) to solve the optimal control problems and obtain the optimal therapy scheme.

DISCRETE MATURITY AND DELAY DIFFERENTIAL-DIFFERENCE MODEL OF HEMATOPOIETIC CELL DYNAMICS WITH APPLICATIONS TO ACUTE MYELOGENOUS LEUKEMIA

In the last few years, many efforts were oriented towards describing the hematopoiesis phenomenon in normal and pathological situations. This complex biological process is organized as a hierarchical system that begins with primitive hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) and ends with mature blood cells: red blood cells, white blood cells and platelets. Regarding acute myelogenous leukemia (AML), a cancer of the bone marrow and blood, characterized by a rapid proliferation of immature cells, which eventually invade the bloodstream, there is a consensus about the target cells during the HSCs development which are susceptible to leukemic transformation. We propose and analyze a mathematical model of HSC dynamics taking into account two phases in the cell cycle, a resting and a proliferating one, by allowing just after division a part of HSCs to enter the resting phase and the other part to come back to the proliferating phase to divide again. The resulting mathematical model is a system of nonlinear differential-difference equations. Due to the hierarchical organization of the hematopoiesis, we consider [Formula: see text] stages of HSCs characterized by their maturity levels. We obtain a system of [Formula: see text] nonlinear differential-difference equations. We study the existence, uniqueness, positivity, boundedness and unboundedness of the solutions. We then investigate the existence of positive and axial steady states for the system, and obtain conditions for their stability. Sufficient conditions for the global asymptotic stability of the trivial steady state as well as conditions for its instability are obtained. Using neutral differential equation associated to the differential-difference system, we also obtain results on the local asymptotic stability of the positive steady state. Numerical simulations are carried out to show the influence of variations of the differentiation rates and self-renewal coefficients of the HSCs on the behavior of the system. In particular, we show that a blocking of differentiation at an early stage of HSC development can lead in an overexpression of very immature cells. Such situation corresponds to the observation in the case of AML.

Synchronization scenarios induced by delayed communication in arrays of diffusively coupled autonomous chemical oscillators

We study the impact of delayed feedbacks in the collective synchronization of ensembles of identical and autonomous micro-oscillators. To this aim, we consider linear arrays of Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) oscillators confined in micro-compartmentalised systems, where the delayed feedback mimics natural lags that can arise due to the confinement properties and mechanisms driving the inter-oscillator communication. The micro-oscillator array is modeled as a set of Oregonator-like kinetics coupled via mass exchange of the chemical messengers. Changes in the synchronization patterns are explored by varying the delayed feedback introduced in the messenger species Br2. A direct transition from anti-phase to in-phase synchronization and back to the initial anti-phase scheme is observed by progressively increasing the time delay from zero to the value T₀, which is the oscillation period characterising the system without any delayed coupling. The route from anti- to in-phase oscillations (and back) consists of regimes where windows of in-phase oscillations are periodically broken by anti-phase beats. Similarities between these phase transition dynamics and synchronization scenarios characterising the coordination of oscillatory limb movements are finally discussed.

Evolution of cancer stem cell lineage involving feedback regulation

Tumor emergence and progression is a complex phenomenon that assumes special molecular and cellular interactions. The hierarchical structuring and communication via feedback signaling of different cell types, which are categorized as the stem, progenitor, and differentiated cells in dependence of their maturity level, plays an important role. Under healthy conditions, these cells build a dynamical system that is responsible for facilitating the homeostatic regulation of the tissue. Generally, in this hierarchical setting, stem and progenitor cells are yet likely to undergo a mutation, when a cell divides into two daughter cells. This may lead to the development of abnormal characteristics, i.e. mutation in the cell, yielding an unrestrained number of cells. Therefore, the regulation of a stem cell’s proliferation and differentiation rate is crucial for maintaining the balance in the overall cell population. In this paper, a maturity based mathematical model with feedback regulation is formulated for healthy and mutated cell lineages. It is given in the form of coupled ordinary and partial differential equations. The focus is laid on the dynamical effects resulting from acquiring a mutation in the hierarchical structure of stem, progenitor and fully differentiated cells. Additionally, the effects of nonlinear feedback regulation from mature cells into both stem and progenitor cell populations have been inspected. The steady-state solutions of the model are derived analytically. Numerical simulations and results based on a finite volume scheme underpin various expected behavioral patterns of the homeostatic regulation and cancer evolution. For instance, it has been found that the mutated cells can experience significant growth even with a single somatic mutation, but under homeostatic regulation acquire a steady-state and thus, ensuing healthy cell population to either a steady-state or a lower cell concentration. Furthermore, the model behavior has been validated with different experimentally measured tumor values from the literature.

Multistage feedback-driven compartmental dynamics of hematopoiesis

Human hematopoiesis is surprisingly resilient to disruptions, providing suitable responses to severe bleeding, long-lasting immune activation, and even bone marrow transplants. Still, many blood disorders exist which push the system past its natural plasticity, resulting in abnormalities in the circulating blood. While proper treatment of such diseases can benefit from understanding the underlying cell dynamics, these are non-trivial to predict due to the hematopoietic system's hierarchical nature and complex feedback networks. To characterize the dynamics following different types of perturbations, we investigate a model representing hematopoiesis as a sequence of compartments covering all maturation stages-from stem to mature cells-where feedback regulates cell production to ongoing necessities. We find that a stable response to perturbations requires the simultaneous adaptation of cell differentiation and self-renewal rates, and show that under conditions of continuous disruption-as found in chronic hemolytic states-compartment cell numbers evolve to novel stable states.

Periodic hematological disorders: Quintessential examples of dynamical diseases

This paper summarizes the evidence supporting the classification of cyclic neutropenia as a dynamical disease and periodic chronic myelogenous leukemia is also considered. The unsatisfactory state of knowledge concerning the genesis of cyclic thrombocytopenia and periodic autoimmune hemolytic anemia is detailed.

Stability analysis of a state-dependent delay differential equation for cell maturation: analytical and numerical methods

We consider a mathematical model describing the maturation process of stem cells up to fully mature cells. The model is formulated as a differential equation with state-dependent delay, where maturity is described as a continuous variable. The maturation rate of cells may be regulated by the amount of mature cells and, moreover, it may depend on cell maturity: we investigate how the stability of equilibria is affected by the choice of the maturation rate. We show that the principle of linearised stability holds for this model, and develop some analytical methods for the investigation of characteristic equations for fixed delays. For a general maturation rate we resort to numerical methods and we extend the pseudospectral discretisation technique to approximate the state-dependent delay equation with a system of ordinary differential equations. This is the first application of the technique to nonlinear state-dependent delay equations, and currently the only method available for studying the stability of equilibria by means of established software packages for bifurcation analysis. The numerical method is validated on some cases when the maturation rate is independent of maturity and the model can be reformulated as a fixed-delay equation via a suitable time transformation. We exploit the analytical and numerical methods to investigate the stability boundary in parameter planes. Our study shows some drastic qualitative changes in the stability boundary under assumptions on the model parameters, which may have important biological implications.

Stochastic Telomere Shortening and the Route to Limitless Replicative Potential

In human tissues, the replicative potential of stem cells is limited by the shortening of telomere, limitless replicative potential is a hallmark of cancer. Telomere length changes stochastically during cell division mainly due to the competition between the end replication problem and telomerase, short telomere can lead to replicative senescence and cell apoptosis. Here, we investigate how stochastic changes of telomere length in individual cells may affect the population dynamics of clonal growth. We established a computational model that couples telomerase-regulated stochastic telomere length changes with the replicative potential of clones. Model simulations reveal qualitative dependence of clone proliferation potential with activities of telomerase; mutations in cells to alter the activities of telomerase and its inhibitors can induce abnormal tissue growth and lead to limitless replicative potential.

Studying the regression profiles of cervical tumours during radiotherapy treatment using a patient-specific multiscale model

Apart from offering insight into the biomechanisms involved in cancer, many recent mathematical modeling efforts aspire to the ultimate goal of clinical translation, wherein models are designed to be used in the future as clinical decision support systems in the patient-individualized context. Most significant challenges are the integration of multiscale biodata and the patient-specific model parameterization. A central aim of this study was the design of a clinically-relevant parameterization methodology for a patient-specific computational model of cervical cancer response to radiotherapy treatment with concomitant cisplatin, built around a tumour features-based search of the parameter space. Additionally, a methodological framework for the predictive use of the model was designed, including a scoring method to quantitatively reflect the similarity and bilateral predictive ability of any two tumours in terms of their regression profile. The methodology was applied to the datasets of eight patients. Tumour scenarios in accordance with the available longitudinal data have been determined. Predictive investigations identified three patient cases, anyone of which can be used to predict the volumetric evolution throughout therapy of the tumours of the other two with very good results. Our observations show that the presented approach is promising in quantifiably differentiating tumours with distinct regression profiles.

Modeling large fluctuations of thousands of clones during hematopoiesis: The role of stem cell self-renewal and bursty progenitor dynamics in rhesus macaque

In a recent clone-tracking experiment, millions of uniquely tagged hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) and progenitor cells were autologously transplanted into rhesus macaques and peripheral blood containing thousands of tags were sampled and sequenced over 14 years to quantify the abundance of hundreds to thousands of tags or “clones.” Two major puzzles of the data have been observed: consistent differences and massive temporal fluctuations of clone populations. The large sample-to-sample variability can lead clones to occasionally go “extinct” but “resurrect” themselves in subsequent samples. Although heterogeneity in HSC differentiation rates, potentially due to tagging, and random sampling of the animals’ blood and cellular demographic stochasticity might be invoked to explain these features, we show that random sampling cannot explain the magnitude of the temporal fluctuations. Moreover, we show through simpler neutral mechanistic and statistical models of hematopoiesis of tagged cells that a broad distribution in clone sizes can arise from stochastic HSC self-renewal instead of tag-induced heterogeneity. The very large clone population fluctuations that often lead to extinctions and resurrections can be naturally explained by a generation-limited proliferation constraint on the progenitor cells. This constraint leads to bursty cell population dynamics underlying the large temporal fluctuations. We analyzed experimental clone abundance data using a new statistic that counts clonal disappearances and provided least-squares estimates of two key model parameters in our model, the total HSC differentiation rate and the maximum number of progenitor-cell divisions.

Hematopoiesis of virally tagged cells in rhesus macaques is analyzed in the context of a mechanistic and statistical model. We find that the clone size distribution and the temporal variability in the abundance of each clone (viral tag) in peripheral blood are consistent with (i) stochastic HSC self-renewal during bone marrow repair, (ii) clonal aging that restricts the number of generations of progenitor cells, and (iii) infrequent and small-size samples. By fitting data, we infer two key parameters that control the level of fluctuations of clone sizes in our model: the total HSC differentiation rate and the maximum proliferation capacity of progenitor cells. Our analysis provides insight into the mechanisms of hematopoiesis and a framework to guide future multiclone barcoding/lineage tracking measurements.

A mathematical model of stem cell regeneration with epigenetic state transitions

In this paper, we study a mathematical model of stem cell regeneration with epigenetic state transitions. In the model, the heterogeneity of stem cells is considered through the epigenetic state of each cell, and each epigenetic state defines a subpopulation of stem cells. The dynamics of the subpopulations are modeled by a set of ordinary differential equations in which epigenetic state transition in cell division is given by the transition probability. We present analysis for the existence and linear stability of the equilibrium state. As an example, we apply the model to study the dynamics of state transition in breast cancer stem cells.

Control in dormancy or eradication of cancer stem cells: Mathematical modeling and stability issues

OBJECTIVE

Modeling and analysis of cell population dynamics enhance our understanding of cancer. Here we introduce and explore a new model that may apply to many tissues.

ANALYSES

An age-structured model describing coexistence between mutated and ordinary stem cells is developed and explored. The model is transformed into a nonlinear time-delay system governing the dynamics of healthy cells, coupled to a nonlinear differential-difference system describing dynamics of unhealthy cells. Its main features are highlighted and an advanced stability analysis of several steady states is performed, through specific Lyapunov-like functionals for descriptor-type systems.

RESULTS

We propose a biologically based model endowed with rich dynamics. It incorporates a new parameter representing immunoediting processes, including the case where proliferation of cancer cells is locally kept under check by the immune cells. It also considers the overproliferation of cancer stem cells, modeled as a subpopulation of mutated cells that is constantly active in cell division. The analysis that we perform here reveals the conditions of existence of several steady states, including the case of cancer dormancy, in the coupled model of interest. Our study suggests that cancer dormancy may result from a plastic sensitivity of mutated cells to their shared environment, different from that - fixed - of healthy cells, and this is related to an action (or lack of action) of the immune system. Next, the stability analysis that we perform is essentially oriented towards the determination of sufficient conditions, depending on all the model parameters, that ensure either a regionally (i.e., locally) stable dormancy steady state or eradication of unhealthy cells. Finally, we discuss some biological interpretations, with regards to our findings, in light of current and emerging therapeutics. These final insights are particularly formulated in the paradigmatic case of hematopoiesis and acute leukemia, which is one of the best known malignancies for which it is always hard, in presence of a clinical and histological remission, to decide between cure and dormancy of a tumoral clone.

A model of hematopoietic bone marrow apoptosis during growth factor deprivation in combination with a cytokine

Background

The process by which blood cells are formed is referred to as hematopoiesis. This process involves a complex sequence of phases that blood cells must complete. During hematopoiesis, a small fraction of cells undergo cell death. Causes of cell death are dependent upon various factors; one such factor being growth factor deprivation.

Methods

In this paper, a mathematical model of hematopoiesis during growth factor deprivation is presented. The model consists of a set of three coupled differential delay equations. Phase plane and linear stability analysis are performed in order to locate and determine stability of fixed points. Numerical simulations of the governing equations are run and provide a visual display of the behavior of the stem cell population undergoing growth factor deprivation. In addition, the effect of cytokine administration is incorporated in the model in an effort to understand how cytokine administration can offset the negative effects of apoptosis caused by growth factor deprivation.

Conclusions

The model produces qualitatively similar results to that observed during serum deprivation. The model captures apoptosis levels of cells at different time points. Additionally, it is shown that cytokine administration stabilizes the stem cell count.

A mathematical model for IL-6-mediated, stem cell driven tumor growth and targeted treatment

Targeting key regulators of the cancer stem cell phenotype to overcome their critical influence on tumor growth is a promising new strategy for cancer treatment. Here we present a modeling framework that operates at both the cellular and molecular levels, for investigating IL-6 mediated, cancer stem cell driven tumor growth and targeted treatment with anti-IL6 antibodies. Our immediate goal is to quantify the influence of IL-6 on cancer stem cell self-renewal and survival, and to characterize the subsequent impact on tumor growth dynamics. By including the molecular details of IL-6 binding, we are able to quantify the temporal changes in fractional occupancies of bound receptors and their influence on tumor volume. There is a strong correlation between the model output and experimental data for primary tumor xenografts. We also used the model to predict tumor response to administration of the humanized IL-6R monoclonal antibody, tocilizumab (TCZ), and we found that as little as 1mg/kg of TCZ administered weekly for 7 weeks is sufficient to result in tumor reduction and a sustained deceleration of tumor growth.

A small population of cancer stem cells that share many of the biological characteristics of normal adult stem cells are believed to initiate and sustain tumor growth for a wide variety of malignancies. Growth and survival of these cancer stem cells is highly influenced by tumor micro-environmental factors and molecular signaling initiated by cytokines and growth factors. This work focuses on quantifying the influence of IL-6, a pleiotropic cytokine secreted by a variety of cell types, on cancer stem cell self-renewal and survival. We present a mathematical model for IL-6 mediated, cancer stem cell driven tumor growth that operates at the following levels: (1) the molecular level—capturing cell surface dynamics of receptor-ligand binding and receptor activation that lead to intra-cellular signal transduction cascades; and (2) the cellular level—describing tumor growth, cellular composition, and response to treatments targeted against IL-6.

A Mathematical Model of Granulopoiesis Incorporating the Negative Feedback Dynamics and Kinetics of G-CSF/Neutrophil Binding and Internalization

We develop a physiological model of granulopoiesis which includes explicit modelling of the kinetics of the cytokine granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) incorporating both the freely circulating concentration and the concentration of the cytokine bound to mature neutrophils. G-CSF concentrations are used to directly regulate neutrophil production, with the rate of differentiation of stem cells to neutrophil precursors, the effective proliferation rate in mitosis, the maturation time, and the release rate from the mature marrow reservoir into circulation all dependent on the level of G-CSF in the system. The dependence of the maturation time on the cytokine concentration introduces a state-dependent delay into our differential equation model, and we show how this is derived from an age-structured partial differential equation model of the mitosis and maturation and also detail the derivation of the rest of our model. The model and its estimated parameters are shown to successfully predict the neutrophil and G-CSF responses to a variety of treatment scenarios, including the combined administration of chemotherapy and exogenous G-CSF. This concomitant treatment was reproduced without any additional fitting to characterize drug-drug interactions.

Quantifying Clonal and Subclonal Passenger Mutations in Cancer Evolution

The vast majority of mutations in the exome of cancer cells are passengers, which do not affect the reproductive rate of the cell. Passengers can provide important information about the evolutionary history of an individual cancer, and serve as a molecular clock. Passengers can also become targets for immunotherapy or confer resistance to treatment. We study the stochastic expansion of a population of cancer cells describing the growth of primary tumors or metastatic lesions. We first analyze the process by looking forward in time and calculate the fixation probabilities and frequencies of successive passenger mutations ordered by their time of appearance. We compute the likelihood of specific evolutionary trees, thereby informing the phylogenetic reconstruction of cancer evolution in individual patients. Next, we derive results looking backward in time: for a given subclonal mutation we estimate the number of cancer cells that were present at the time when that mutation arose. We derive exact formulas for the expected numbers of subclonal mutations of any frequency. Fitting this formula to cancer sequencing data leads to an estimate for the ratio of birth and death rates of cancer cells during the early stages of clonal expansion.

Cancer is the consequence of an evolutionary process, which lasts several decades, is impossible to observe during most of its time, and only becomes apparent in late stages. We use mathematical modeling to shed light on the evolutionary dynamics of cancer by studying the accumulation of passenger mutations. We show that the frequencies obtained by passenger mutations depend strongly on the ratio of death and birth rates of cancer cells. We use genetic data of colorectal cancer to estimate this important quantity in vivo. We estimate the size of the cancer cell population that was present when a specific mutation first emerged. Our theory informs the analysis of cancer sequencing data and the phylogenetic reconstruction of cancer evolution.

Mechanisms of blood homeostasis: lineage tracking and a neutral model of cell populations in rhesus macaques

Background

How a potentially diverse population of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) differentiates and proliferates to supply more than 10¹¹ mature blood cells every day in humans remains a key biological question. We investigated this process by quantitatively analyzing the clonal structure of peripheral blood that is generated by a population of transplanted lentivirus-marked HSCs in myeloablated rhesus macaques. Each transplanted HSC generates a clonal lineage of cells in the peripheral blood that is then detected and quantified through deep sequencing of the viral vector integration sites (VIS) common within each lineage. This approach allowed us to observe, over a period of 4-12 years, hundreds of distinct clonal lineages.

Results

While the distinct clone sizes varied by three orders of magnitude, we found that collectively, they form a steady-state clone size-distribution with a distinctive shape. Steady-state solutions of our model show that the predicted clone size-distribution is sensitive to only two combinations of parameters. By fitting the measured clone size-distributions to our mechanistic model, we estimate both the effective HSC differentiation rate and the number of active HSCs.

Conclusions

Our concise mathematical model shows how slow HSC differentiation followed by fast progenitor growth can be responsible for the observed broad clone size-distribution. Although all cells are assumed to be statistically identical, analogous to a neutral theory for the different clone lineages, our mathematical approach captures the intrinsic variability in the times to HSC differentiation after transplantation.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12915-015-0191-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Characterizing inhibited tumor growth in stem-cell-driven non-spatial cancers

Healthy human tissue is highly regulated to maintain homeostasis. Secreted negative feedback factors that inhibit stem cell division and stem cell self-renewal play a fundamental role in establishing this control. The appearance of abnormal cancerous growth requires an escape from these regulatory mechanisms. In a previous study we found that for non-solid tumors if feedback inhibition on stem cell self-renewal is lost, but the feedback on the division rate is still intact, then the tumor dynamics are characterized by a relatively slow sub-exponential growth that we called inhibited growth. Here we characterize the cell dynamics of inhibited cancer growth by modeling feedback inhibition using Hill equations. We find asymptotic approximations for the growth rates of the stem cell and differentiated cell populations in terms of the strength of the inhibitory signal: stem cells grow as a power law t(1/k+1),and the differentiated cells grow as t(1/k), where k is the Hill coefficient in the feedback law regulating cell divisions. It follows that as the tumor grows, undifferentiated cells take up an increasingly large fraction of the population. Implications of these results for specific cancers including CML are discussed. Understanding how the regulatory mechanisms that continue to operate in cancer affect the rate of disease progression can provide important insights relevant to chronic or other slow progressing types of cancer.

Neutrophil dynamics during concurrent chemotherapy and G-CSF administration: Mathematical modelling guides dose optimisation to minimise neutropenia

The choice of chemotherapy regimens is often constrained by the patient's tolerance to the side effects of chemotherapeutic agents. This dose-limiting issue is a major concern in dose regimen design, which is typically focused on maximising drug benefits. Chemotherapy-induced neutropenia is one of the most prevalent toxic effects patients experience and frequently threatens the efficient use of chemotherapy. In response, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) is co-administered during chemotherapy to stimulate neutrophil production, increase neutrophil counts, and hopefully avoid neutropenia. Its clinical use is, however, largely dictated by trial and error processes. Based on up-to-date knowledge and rational considerations, we develop a physiologically realistic model to mathematically characterise the neutrophil production in the bone marrow which we then integrate with pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PKPD) models of a chemotherapeutic agent and an exogenous form of G-CSF (recombinant human G-CSF, or rhG-CSF). In this work, model parameters represent the average values for a general patient and are extracted from the literature or estimated from available data. The dose effect predicted by the model is confirmed through previously published data. Using our model, we were able to determine clinically relevant dosing regimens that advantageously reduce the number of rhG-CSF administrations compared to original studies while significantly improving the neutropenia status. More particularly, we determine that it could be beneficial to delay the first administration of rhG-CSF to day seven post-chemotherapy and reduce the number of administrations from ten to three or four for a patient undergoing 14-day periodic chemotherapy.

Evolution and phenotypic selection of cancer stem cells

Cells of different organs at different ages have an intrinsic set of kinetics that dictates their behavior. Transformation into cancer cells will inherit these kinetics that determine initial cell and tumor population progression dynamics. Subject to genetic mutation and epigenetic alterations, cancer cell kinetics can change, and favorable alterations that increase cellular fitness will manifest themselves and accelerate tumor progression. We set out to investigate the emerging intratumoral heterogeneity and to determine the evolutionary trajectories of the combination of cell-intrinsic kinetics that yield aggressive tumor growth. We develop a cellular automaton model that tracks the temporal evolution of the malignant subpopulation of so-called cancer stem cells(CSC), as these cells are exclusively able to initiate and sustain tumors. We explore orthogonal cell traits, including cell migration to facilitate invasion, spontaneous cell death due to genetic drift after accumulation of irreversible deleterious mutations, symmetric cancer stem cell division that increases the cancer stem cell pool, and telomere length and erosion as a mitotic counter for inherited non-stem cancer cell proliferation potential. Our study suggests that cell proliferation potential is the strongest modulator of tumor growth. Early increase in proliferation potential yields larger populations of non-stem cancer cells(CC) that compete with CSC and thus inhibit CSC division while a reduction in proliferation potential loosens such inhibition and facilitates frequent CSC division. The sub-population of cancer stem cells in itself becomes highly heterogeneous dictating population level dynamics that vary from long-term dormancy to aggressive progression. Our study suggests that the clonal diversity that is captured in single tumor biopsy samples represents only a small proportion of the total number of phenotypes.

We present an in silico computational model of tumor growth and evolution according to the cancer stem cell hypothesis. Inheritable traits of cells may be genetically or epigenetically altered, and traits that confer increased fitness to the cell will be selected for on the population level. Phenotypic evolution yields aggressive tumors with large heterogeneity, prompting the notion that the cancer stem cell population per se is highly heterogeneous. Within aggressive tumors cancer stem cells with low tumorigenic potential may be isolated. Simulations of our model suggest that the cells harvested in core needle biopsies represent less than 10% of the phenotypic heterogeneity of the total tumor population. Dependent on the cells captured in the sample, xenografted tumors may exhibit aggressive growth or long-term dormancy—dynamics that may suggest opposing treatment approaches for the same tumor when translated into clinical decision-making.

A study on stability and medical implications for a complex delay model for CML with cell competition and treatment

We study a mathematical model describing the dynamics of leukemic and normal cell populations (stem-like and differentiated) in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). This model is a system of four delay differential equations incorporating three types of cell division. The competition between normal and leukemic stem cell populations for the common microenvironment is taken into consideration. The stability of one steady state is investigated. The results are discussed via their medical interpretation.

Optimal chemotherapy for leukemia: a model-based strategy for individualized treatment

Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia, commonly known as ALL, is a predominant form of cancer during childhood. With the advent of modern healthcare support, the 5-year survival rate has been impressive in the recent past. However, long-term ALL survivors embattle several treatment-related medical and socio-economic complications due to excessive and inordinate chemotherapy doses received during treatment. In this work, we present a model-based approach to personalize 6-Mercaptopurine (6-MP) treatment for childhood ALL with a provision for incorporating the pharmacogenomic variations among patients. Semi-mechanistic mathematical models were developed and validated for i) 6-MP metabolism, ii) red blood cell mean corpuscular volume (MCV) dynamics, a surrogate marker for treatment efficacy, and iii) leukopenia, a major side-effect. With the constraint of getting limited data from clinics, a global sensitivity analysis based model reduction technique was employed to reduce the parameter space arising from semi-mechanistic models. The reduced, sensitive parameters were used to individualize the average patient model to a specific patient so as to minimize the model uncertainty. Models fit the data well and mimic diverse behavior observed among patients with minimum parameters. The model was validated with real patient data obtained from literature and Riley Hospital for Children in Indianapolis. Patient models were used to optimize the dose for an individual patient through nonlinear model predictive control. The implementation of our approach in clinical practice is realizable with routinely measured complete blood counts (CBC) and a few additional metabolite measurements. The proposed approach promises to achieve model-based individualized treatment to a specific patient, as opposed to a standard-dose-for-all, and to prescribe an optimal dose for a desired outcome with minimum side-effects.

Understanding, treating and avoiding hematological disease: better medicine through mathematics?

This paper traces the experimental, clinical and mathematical modeling efforts to understand a periodic hematological disease-cyclical neutropenia. It is primarily a highly personal account by two scientists from quite different backgrounds of their interactions over almost 40 years and their attempts to understand this intriguing disease. It's also a story of their efforts to offer effective treatments for the patients who suffer from cyclic neutropenia and other conditions causing neutropenia and infections.

Stochasticity and determinism in models of hematopoiesis

This chapter represents a novel view of modeling in hematopoiesis, synthesizing both deterministic and stochastic approaches. Whereas the stochastic models work in situations where chance dominates, for example when the number of cells is small, or under random mutations, the deterministic models are more important for large-scale, normal hematopoiesis. New types of models are on the horizon. These models attempt to account for distributed environments such as hematopoietic niches and their impact on dynamics. Mixed effects of such structures and chance events are largely unknown and constitute both a challenge and promise for modeling. Our discussion is presented under the separate headings of deterministic and stochastic modeling; however, the connections between both are frequently mentioned. Four case studies are included to elucidate important examples. We also include a primer of deterministic and stochastic dynamics for the reader's use.

A mathematical model of cancer stem cell driven tumor initiation: implications of niche size and loss of homeostatic regulatory mechanisms

Hierarchical organized tissue structures, with stem cell driven cell differentiation, are critical to the homeostatic maintenance of most tissues, and this underlying cellular architecture is potentially a critical player in the development of a many cancers. Here, we develop a mathematical model of mutation acquisition to investigate how deregulation of the mechanisms preserving stem cell homeostasis contributes to tumor initiation. A novel feature of the model is the inclusion of both extrinsic and intrinsic chemical signaling and interaction with the niche to control stem cell self-renewal. We use the model to simulate the effects of a variety of types and sequences of mutations and then compare and contrast all mutation pathways in order to determine which ones generate cancer cells fastest. The model predicts that the sequence in which mutations occur significantly affects the pace of tumorigenesis. In addition, tumor composition varies for different mutation pathways, so that some sequences generate tumors that are dominated by cancerous cells with all possible mutations, while others are primarily comprised of cells that more closely resemble normal cells with only one or two mutations. We are also able to show that, under certain circumstances, healthy stem cells diminish due to the displacement by mutated cells that have a competitive advantage in the niche. Finally, in the event that all homeostatic regulation is lost, exponential growth of the cancer population occurs in addition to the depletion of normal cells. This model helps to advance our understanding of how mutation acquisition affects mechanisms that influence cell-fate decisions and leads to the initiation of cancers.

Stem cell control, oscillations, and tissue regeneration in spatial and non-spatial models

Normal human tissue is organized into cell lineages, in which the highly differentiated mature cells that perform tissue functions are the end product of an orderly tissue-specific sequence of divisions that start with stem cells or progenitor cells. Tissue homeostasis and effective regeneration after injuries requires tight regulation of these cell lineages and feedback loops play a fundamental role in this regard. In particular, signals secreted from differentiated cells that inhibit stem cell division and stem cell self-renewal are important in establishing control. In this article we study in detail the cell dynamics that arise from this control mechanism. These dynamics are fundamental to our understanding of cancer, given that tumor initiation requires an escape from tissue regulation. Knowledge on the processes of cellular control can provide insights into the pathways that lead to deregulation and consequently cancer development.

Cancer Stem Cells: A Minor Cancer Subpopulation that Redefines Global Cancer Features

In recent years cancer stem cells (CSCs) have been hypothesized to comprise only a minor subpopulation in solid tumors that drives tumor initiation, progression, and metastasis; the so-called “cancer stem cell hypothesis.” While a seemingly trivial statement about numbers, much is put at stake. If true, the conclusions of many studies of cancer cell populations could be challenged, as the bulk assay methods upon which they depend have, by, and large, taken for granted the notion that a “typical” cell of the population possesses the attributes of a cell capable of perpetuating the cancer, i.e., a CSC. In support of the CSC hypothesis, populations enriched for so-called “tumor-initiating” cells have demonstrated a corresponding increase in tumorigenicity as measured by dilution assay, although estimates have varied widely as to what the fractional contribution of tumor-initiating cells is in any given population. Some have taken this variability to suggest the CSC fraction may be nearly 100% after all, countering the CSC hypothesis, and that there are simply assay-dependent error rates in our ability to “reconfirm” CSC status at the cell level. To explore this controversy more quantitatively, we developed a simple cellular automaton model of CSC-driven tumor growth dynamics. Assuming CSC and non-stem cancer cells (CC) subpopulations coexist to some degree, we evaluated the impact of an environmentally dependent CSC symmetric division probability and a CC proliferation capacity on tumor progression and morphology. Our model predicts, as expected, that the frequency of CSC divisions that are symmetric highly influences the frequency of CSCs in the population, but goes on to predict the two frequencies can be widely divergent, and that spatial constraints will tend to increase the CSC fraction over time. Further, tumor progression times show a marked dependence on both the frequency of CSC divisions that are symmetric and on the proliferation capacities of CC. Together, these findings can explain, within the CSC hypothesis, the widely varying measures of stem cell fractions observed. In particular, although the CSC fraction is influenced by the (environmentally modifiable) CSC symmetric division probability, with the former converging to unity as the latter nears 100%, the CSC fraction becomes quite small even for symmetric division probabilities modestly lower than 100%. In the latter case, the tumor exhibits a clustered morphology and the CSC fraction steadily increases with time; more so on both counts when the death rate of CCs is higher. Such variations in CSC fraction and morphology are not only consistent with the CSC hypothesis, but lend support to it as one expected byproduct of the dynamical interactions that are predicted to take place among a relatively small CSC population, its CC counterpart, and the host compartment over time.

Parameter identification of hematopoiesis mathematical model - periodic chronic myelogenous leukemia

Periodic chronic myelogenous leukemia (PCML) is a dynamic hematopoietic disease which causes oscillations of circulating leukocytes, platelets and reticulocytes. Mathematical modeling is an invaluable tool to help in predicting hematopoiesis behavior. In this paper we modify the existing models based on improving the parameters of the model. Also more parameters are estimated regarding the proposed model. It is our major intention to construct a physiological model which can map major identified mechanisms of leukopoiesis to provide a deeper insight into this complex biological process. In the proposed model the leukocytes line has been modeled more precisely. In fact, precursor cells have been considered as two separate groups: proliferating precursor cells and non-proliferating precursor cells. As a result, more parameters have appeared in the model and identifying the new parameters has resulted in a better fit of clinical data and the data extracted from the model for both platelets and leukocytes. That is, the new model describes the leukocytes and platelets of the system in a way that is closer to clinical data, so the proposed model can be more useful for predicting the behavior of leukocytes and platelets for PCML disease. Compared with the previous works, it is shown that the new model has a better fit of the quantitative data on leukocytes and platelets.

Neutrophil dynamics after chemotherapy and G-CSF: the role of pharmacokinetics in shaping the response

Chemotherapy has profound effects on the hematopoietic system, most notably leading to neutropenia. Granulocyte colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) is often used to deal with this neutropenia, but the response is highly variable. In this paper we examine the role of pharmacokinetics and delivery protocols in shaping the neutrophil responses to chemotherapy and G-CSF. Neutrophil responses to different protocols of chemotherapy administration with varying dosages, infusion times, and schedules are studied through a mathematical model. We find that a single dose of chemotherapy produces a damped oscillation in neutrophil levels, and short-term applications of chemotherapy can induce permanent oscillations in neutrophil level if there is a bistability in the system. In addition, we confirm previous findings [Zhuge et al., J. Theor. Biol., 293(2012), 111-120] that when periodic chemotherapy is given, there is a significant period of delivery that induces resonance in the system and exacerbates the corresponding neutropenia. The width of this resonant period peak increases with the recovery rate after a single chemotherapy, which is given by the real part of the dominant eigenvalue pair at the steady state, and both are determined by a single cooperativity coefficient in the feedback function for the neutrophils. Our numerical studies show that the neutropenia caused by chemotherapy can be overcome if G-CSF is given early after chemotherapy but can actually be worsened if G-CSF is given later, consistent with results reported in Zhuge et al. (2012). The nadir in neutrophil level is found to be more sensitive to the dosage of chemotherapy than that of the G-CSF. Furthermore, dependence of our results with changes in key pharmacokinetic parameters as well as initial functions are studied. Thus, this study illuminates the potential for destructive resonance leading to neutropenia in response to periodic chemotherapy, and explores and explains why the timing of G-CSF is so crucial for successful reversal of chemotherapy induced neutropenia.

Dynamic modeling of genes controlling cancer stem cell proliferation

The growing evidence that cancer originates from stem cells (SC) holds a great promise to eliminate this disease by designing specific drug therapies for removing cancer SC. Translation of this knowledge into predictive tests for the clinic is hampered due to the lack of methods to discriminate cancer SC from non-cancer SC. Here, we address this issue by describing a conceptual strategy for identifying the genetic origins of cancer SC. The strategy incorporates a high-dimensional group of differential equations that characterizes the proliferation, differentiation, and reprogramming of cancer SC in a dynamic cellular and molecular system. The deployment of robust mathematical models will help uncover and explain many still unknown aspects of cell behavior, tissue function, and network organization related to the formation and division of cancer SC. The statistical method developed allows biologically meaningful hypotheses about the genetic control mechanisms of carcinogenesis and metastasis to be tested in a quantitative manner.

DISCRETE-MATURITY STRUCTURED MODEL OF CELL DIFFERENTIATION WITH APPLICATIONS TO ACUTE MYELOGENOUS LEUKEMIA

We propose and analyze a mathematical model of hematopoietic stem cell dynamics, that takes two cell populations into account, an immature and a mature one. All cells are able to self-renew, and immature cells can be either in a proliferating or in a resting compartment. The resulting model is a system of age-structured partial differential equations, that reduces to a system of delay differential equations, with several distributed delays. We investigate the existence of positive and axial steady states for this system, and we obtain conditions for their stability. Numerically, we concentrate on the influence of variations in differentiation coefficients on the behavior of the system. In particular, we focus on applications to acute myelogenous leukemia, a cancer of white cells characterized by a quick proliferation of immature cells that invade the circulating blood. We show that a blocking of differentiation at an early stage of immature cell development can result in the over-expression of very immature cells, with respect to the mature cell population.

DYNAMICS OF THE DELAY HEMATOLOGICAL CELL MODEL

In this paper, complex dynamics of a two-compartment model of production and regulation of the circulating blood neutrophil number are investigated. It is shown that the proliferative disorders may be possible due to factors of the apoptosis rate rsof the haematopoietic stem cell and the cell cycle duration τs. Applying a recent geometrical criterion for the Hopf bifurcation and transient behaviors of delay systems to this model, we separate the stable regime from the unstable regime on the rs- τsplane. Numerically, regimes of patterned periodic oscillations with low periodicity in the number of circulating blood cells appear on the rs- τsplane. It is found that the dominated period-adding bifurcation mechanism leads transitions from period-n to period-(n + 1), eventually changes to the complex attractor with high-periodicity or chaos.

Mathematical study on kinetics of hematopoietic stem cells--theoretical conditions for successful transplantation

Numerous haematological diseases occur due to dysfunctions during homeostasis processes of blood cell production. Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a therapeutic option for the treatment of haematological malignancy and congenital immunodeficiency. Today, HSCT is widely applied as an alternative method to bone marrow transplantation; however, HSCT can be a risky procedure because of potential side effects and complications after transplantations. Although an optimal regimen to achieve successful HSCT while maintaining quality of life is to be developed, even theoretical considerations such as the evaluations of successful engraftments and proposals of clinical management strategies have not been fully discussed yet. In this paper, we construct and investigate mathematical models that describe the kinetics of hematopoietic stem cell self-renewal and granulopoiesis under the influence of growth factors. Moreover, we derive theoretical conditions for successful HSCT, primarily on the basis of the idea that the basic reproduction number R (0) represents a threshold condition for a population to successfully grow in a given steady-state environment. Successful engraftment of transplanted haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) is subsequently ensured by employing a concept of dynamical systems theory known as 'persistence'. On the basis of the implications from the modelling study, we discuss how the conditions derived for a successful HSCT are used to link to experimental studies.