The unfinished agenda in child survival

Spatiotemporal models with confounding effects: application on under-five mortality across four sub-Saharan African countries

Background

Different strategies have been developed to minimize under-five mortality (U5M) in sub-Saharan African (sSA) countries; however, it is still a major health concern for children in the region. Spatiotemporal modeling is important for areal data collected over time. However, when the number of time points and spatial areas is large and the areas are disconnected, fitting the model becomes computationally complex because of the high number of required parameters to be estimated. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to adopt a spatiotemporal dynamic model that includes the confounding effects between time, space, and their interactions with fixed covariates, with a special emphasis on U5M across disconnected sSA countries.

Method

We used nationally publicly representative Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data for the period from 2000 to 2020. Bayesian spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling with an integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) program was used to model the spatiotemporal distribution of U5M among children across 37 districts located in four disconnected sSA regions: Ethiopia, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and Ghana.

Results

A total of 170,356 under-five children from 37 districts were considered, and 15,467 died before the age of five. The relative risk of U5M in the first DHS was 2.02, which sharply decreased to 0.5 in the recent phase. The proportion of improved access to water, sanitation, clean fuel use, urbanization, and access to health facilities in the district had a significant negative association with U5M. The higher the proportion of these covariates, the lower is the prevalence of childhood mortality.

Conclusion

This study revealed evidence of strong spatial, temporal, and interaction effects that influence under-five mortality risk across districts. Improving the women's literacy index, access to improved water, the use of clean fuel, and the wealth index are associated with an improvement in the risk of mortality among under-five children across the districts. Districts in Nigeria and Ethiopia have the highest risk of U5M; hence, districts in these countries require special attention.

Prevalence of neonatal near miss in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Neonatal near miss (NNM) applies to cases where newborns almost died during the first 28 d of life but survived life-threatening conditions following birth. The most vulnerable time for infant survival is the neonatal stage, corresponding to almost 50% of deaths occurring at <5 y of age. No study indicates the overall pooled prevalence of NNM in Africa. Thus this review aimed to estimate the overall pooled prevalence of NNMs in Africa.

METHODS

Articles were retrieved through a comprehensive search strategy using PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Health InterNetwork Access to Research Initiative, Cochrane Library and Google Search. Data extraction was done independently by all authors. Forest plots and tables were used to represent the original data. The statistical heterogeneity was evaluated using I2 statistics. There was heterogeneity between the included articles. Therefore the authors used a meta-analysis of random effects to estimate the aggregate pooled prevalence of NNM in Africa. Funnel plot and Egger regression test methods were used to assess possible publication bias. R software version 3.5.3 and R studio version 1.2.5003 were used to analyse the data. The guideline of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses was used to publish this article. The review was registered on the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (registration ID: CRD42021290223).

RESULTS

Through an exhaustive search, we found 835 articles. However, we considered only eight full-text articles to be included in this meta-analysis. The analysis of included studies showed that the overall pooled prevalence of NNM in Africa was 30% (95% confidence interval [CI] 16 to 44). The subgroup analysis by study year showed that the prevalence of NNM from 2012-2015 and 2018-2019 was 36% (95% CI 23 to 49) and 20% (95% CI 1 to 39), respectively.

CONCLUSION

This finding suggests that the pooled prevalence of NNM is high in Africa as compared with other studies. Therefore the government and other stakeholders working on maternal and child health should assist in the design of interventions and strategies for improving the quality of neonatal care.

Realistic Evaluation of the Integrated Electronic Diagnosis Approach (IeDA) for the Management of Childhood Illnesses at Primary Health Facilities in Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

In 2014, Terre des Hommes (Tdh) together with the Ministry of Health (MoH) launched the Integrated electronic Diagnosis Approach (IeDA) intervention in two regions of Burkina Faso consisting of supplying every health centre with a digital algorithm. A realistic evaluation was conducted to understand the implementation process, the mechanisms by which the IeDA intervention lead to change.

METHODS

Data collection took place between January 2016 and October 2017. Direct observation in health centres were conducted. In-depth interviews were conducted with 154 individuals including 92 healthcare workers (HCW) from health centres, 16 officers from district health authorities, 6 members of health centre management committees. In addition, 5 focus groups were organised with carers. The initial coding was based on a preliminary list of codes inspired by the middle-range theory (MRT).

RESULTS

Our results showed that the adoption of the electronic protocol depended on a multiplicity of management practices including role distribution, team work, problem solving approach, task monitoring, training, supervision, support and recognition. Such changes lead to reorganising the health team and redistributing roles before and during consultation, and positive atmosphere that included recognition of each team member, organisational commitment and sense of belonging. Conditions for such management changes to be effective included open dialog at all levels of the system, a minimum of resources to cover the support services and supervision and regular discussions focusing on solving problems faced by health centre teams.

CONCLUSION

This project reinforces the point that in a successful diffusion of IeDA, it is necessary to combine the introduction of technology with support and management mechanisms. It also important to highlight that managers' attitude plays a great place in the success of the intervention: open dialog and respect are crucial dimensions. This is aligned with the findings from other studies.

Noninvasive Approach of Plasmodium falciparum Molecular Detection for Malaria Surveillance in Malaria Endemic Areas in Cameroon

Background

Accurate, cost-effective, and noninvasive alternative molecular methods are needed for detecting low malaria parasitemia. The currently-used nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR) requires blood as well as skilled personnel in order to minimise the risk of bloodborne disease transmission. Therefore, this study is aimed at assessing the accuracy of a noninvasive and more affordable malaria diagnosis with saliva using the loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) technique.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted in the Centre and Southwest regions of Cameroon. Matched blood and saliva samples collected from symptomatic and asymptomatic participants were tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic tests, microscopy, PCR, and LAMP. Statistics were performed using R studio software at 95% confidence interval.

Results

A total of 100 participants (65% symptomatic and 35% asymptomatic) aged between 1 and 74 years with a balanced gender distribution ratio of 1.08 were included in our study. The prevalence of malaria was 61%, 57%, 59%, 42%, 35%, 17%, and 16% for blood-RDT, blood-PCR, blood-LAMP, blood-RT-LAMP, saliva-PCR, saliva-RT-LAMP, and saliva-LAMP, respectively. Both saliva and blood showed a sensitivity of 43.90% and respective specificities of 68.75% and 57.62%. When using RT-LAMP, sensitivities of 49.38% and 48.21% and specificities of 94.11% and 66.67% were recorded for saliva and blood, respectively. Sensitivities of 70.23% and 73.49% and specificities of 62.5% and 76.47% were recorded, respectively, for saliva-LAMP and saliva-RT-LAMP when compared to saliva-PCR as the gold standard. Saliva-LAMP and saliva-RT-LAMP had a fair agreement (к = 0.221 and 0.352, respectively) with saliva-PCR. Homemade LAMP and RT-LAMP technologies match the WHO recommendations and after proper validation in a larger sample size, could serve for malaria diagnosis in developing countries.

Prevalence of Neonatal Mortality and its Associated Factors: A Meta-analysis of Demographic and Health Survey Data from 21 Developing Countries

Neonatal mortality is high in developing countries, and reducing neonatal mortality is an indispensable part of the third Sustainable Development Goal. This study estimated the prevalence of neonatal mortality and the impact of maternal education, economic status, and utilization of antenatal care (ANC) services on neonatal mortality in developing countries. We used a cross-sectional study design to integrate data from 21 developing countries to acquire a wider perspective on neonatal mortality. A meta-analysis was conducted using the latest Demographic and Health Survey data from 21 developing countries. In addition, sensitivity analysis was adopted to assess the stability of the meta-analysis. The random-effects model indicated that women with higher education were less likely to experience neonatal death than mothers with up to primary education (odds ratio [OR] 0.820, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.740–0.910). Women with higher socioeconomic status were less likely to experience neonatal death than mothers with lower socioeconomic status (OR 0.823, 95% CI 0.747–0.908). Mothers with ANC were less likely to experience neonatal death than those with no ANC (OR 0.374, 95% CI 0.323–0.433). Subgroup analysis showed that maternal education and ANC were more effective in Asian countries. In this study, mothers’ lower educational level, poor economic status, and lack of ANC were statistically significant factors associated with neonatal death in developing countries. The effect of these factors on neonatal death differed in different regions.

Assessment of neonatal thermal cares: Practices and beliefs among rural women in West Guji Zone, South Ethiopia: A cross-sectional study

A newborn has a limited capacity to maintain temperature when exposed to cold environment. Neonatal hypothermia, a common neonatal problem, carries high case fatality rate particularly if concurrently occurs with other neonatal problems. This study assessed neonatal thermal care practices and beliefs among rural women in west Guji Zone, south Ethiopia. A community based cross sectional quantitative study combined with qualitative study was undertaken in rural areas of west Guji Zone, Ethiopia. Randomly selected 388 rural mothers of infants less than 6 months old were participated in the quantitative study. Three focus group discussions were conducted among mothers of infants less than 6 months old. Quantitative data were collected by using structured and pretested Afaan Oromo version questionnaire adapted from relevant literatures. Qualitative data were collected by focus group discussion guide. The quantitative data were cleaned, coded and analyzed by SPSS version 20. Qualitative data were transcribed, translated, coded, and analyzed by thematic analysis approach. In general rural women believe that thermal protection of newborn is important. The findings show that approximately 75% and 85% of newborns were dried and wrapped respectively after delivery. However drying and wrapping of newborn are usually done after the first newborn's bath. Just over 84% of newborns were bathed within the first 6 hours of delivery and majority of them were bathed with warm water. About 69.1% and 57.7% of women put head cover to their newborns immediately after birth, and initiated breast feeding within one hour of delivery respectively. Skin to skin care of newborn is non-existent in the study area and perceived as an odd, frightening and potentially dangerous practice. Studied women practice some of the recommended neonatal thermal cares and believe in their importance in keeping newborn warm. However, practice and beliefs about delayed first bath is against standard recommendation, whereas skin to skin care is non-existent and perceived as an odd practice. Interventions to familiarize skin to skin care and reduce misconceptions surrounding it should be introduced into the study area to improve thermal cares of high risk newborns.

Incidence and determinants of neonatal near miss in south Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study

Background

For every neonate who dies, many others experience a near miss event that could have but did not result in death. Neonatal near miss is three to eight times more frequent than neonatal deaths and, therefore, is more useful for assessing the determinants of adverse neonatal outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence and determinants of neonatal near miss in south Ethiopia.

Methods

A facility-based prospective study was conducted among 2704 neonates between 12 July to 26 November 2018. The neonates were followed from the time of admission to hospital discharge or seven postpartum days if the newborn stayed in the hospital. The data were collected by interviewer-administered questionnaire and medical record review. Logistic regression was employed to identify the distant, intermediate and proximal factors associated with neonatal near miss. The independent variables were analysed in three hierarchical blocks. Adjusted odds ratios (AORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to determine the strength of the associations.

Results

The incidences of neonatal near miss and neonatal death were 45.1 (95% CI = 37.7–53.8) and 17.4 (95% CI = 13.0–23.3) per 1000 live births, respectively. Of those newborns who experienced neonatal near miss, more than half (59.8%) of their mothers were referred from other health facilities. After adjusting for potential confounders, the odds of neonatal near miss were significantly higher among neonates with a low monthly income (< 79 USD monthly), a birth interval of less than 24 months and where severe maternal complications had occurred.

Conclusion

Strategies to improve neonatal survival need a multifaceted approach that includes socio-economic and health-related factors. The findings of this study highlight important implications for policymakers with regard to neonatal near miss. In particular, addressing inequalities by increasing women’s income, promoting an optimal birth interval of 24 months or above through postpartum family planning, and preventing maternal complications may improve newborn survival.

Promoting progress in child survival across four African countries: the role of strong health governance and leadership in maternal, neonatal and child health

Despite numerous international and national efforts, only 12 countries in the World Health Organization's African Region met the Millennium Development Goal #4 (MDG#4) to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Given the variability across sub-Saharan Africa, a four-country study was undertaken to examine barriers and facilitators of child survival prior to 2015. Liberia and Zambia were chosen to represent countries making substantial progress towards MDG#4, while Kenya and Zimbabwe represented countries making less progress. Our individual case studies suggested that strong health governance and leadership (HGL) was a significant driver of the greater success in Liberia and Zambia compared with Kenya and Zimbabwe. To elucidate specific components of national HGL that may have substantially influenced the pace of reductions in child mortality, we conducted a cross-country analysis of national policies and strategies pertaining to maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) and qualitative interviews with individuals working in MNCH in each of the four study countries. The three aspects of HGL identified in this study which most consistently contributed to the different progress towards MDG#4 among the four study countries were (1) establishing child survival as a top national priority backed by a comprehensive policy and strategy framework and sufficient human, financial and material resources; (2) bringing together donors, strategic partners, health and non-health stakeholders and beneficiaries to collaborate in strategic planning, decision-making, resource-allocation and coordination of services; and (3) maintaining accountability through a 'monitor-review-act' approach to improve MNCH. Although child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa remains high, this comparative study suggests key health leadership and governance factors that can facilitate reduction of child mortality and may prove useful in tackling current Sustainable Development Goals.

Clustering of Infant Mortality Within Families in Rural Burkina Faso

In this study, we analyze clustering of infant deaths within families living in a rural part of western Burkina Faso. The study included 9,220 infants, born between 1993 and 2009 in Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). A clustering of infant deaths in families was explored by calculating observed versus expected number of infant deaths within families for a given family size. In addition, risk ratios were calculated for infant death depending on the vital status of the previous sibling. We observed 470 infant deaths, yielding an overall infant mortality risk of 51/1,000 births. Clustering of infant deaths within families was observed (P = 0.004). In smaller families, the mortality of firstborns was higher than for the following siblings. The infant mortality risk was higher when the preceding sibling died in infancy (P = 0.03). The study supports the hypothesis of infant death clustering existing within rural families in West Africa. Further studies are needed to shed more light on these findings with the goal to develop effective interventions directed toward the families who already lost a child.

Sources of Health Care Among Under-5 Malawian Children With Diarrhea Episodes: An Analysis of the 2017 Demographic and Health Survey

Diarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the world but mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa. These could be prevented if universal coverage of current available interventions were implemented. The study aimed to identify factors associated with the choice of health care source among caretakers seeking treatment for under-5 children with diarrhea illness. Using women's questionnaire we extracted a subset of data of children aged 0 to 59 months from the 2017 Demographic & Health Survey. Questions regarding history of childhood diarrhea for the past 24 hours or last 2 weeks prior to the survey were key in data extraction. Caregivers were asked to report the place where they sought treatment. In this study, 4 types of health facilities were defined: public, private, pharmacies, and other unspecified sources. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to identify sources of health facility used and corresponding factors associated with the choice. Factors associated with choice of health care source included education (educated women were less likely to self-medicate their children [relative risk ration (RRR) = 0.46; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.22-0.94]), income (better income earning families were more likely to seek care from private facility such as pharmacy [RRR = 1.87; 95% CI = 1.14-3.09]), and rural living (those in rural areas were more likely to seek treatment from other unspecified sources [RRR = 7.33, 95% CI = 1.40-38.36]). Public health facilities (79.9%) were the main source of health care service; however, reducing under-5 mortality due to diarrhea illness would require significant efforts to address other inequalities in accessing and utilizing health care services.

Neonatal mortality in Ethiopia: a protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

A child's risk of dying is highest in the neonatal period, i.e. the first 28 days of life. Newborn death accounts for nearly half of under-five death. More than 80% of newborn deaths are the result of preventable and treatable conditions. Ethiopia has made significant progress towards reducing under-five mortality; however, the rate of neonatal mortality (NMR) still accounts for 41% of under-five deaths. With this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aim to determine the magnitude, causes, and determinants of neonatal mortality in Ethiopia.

METHODS

We will conduct a comprehensive search of the following electronic databases: PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Google Scholar, and maternity and infant care databases as well as grey literature. We will assess the quality of studies by using Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) checklist. Two reviewers will screen all retrieved articles, conduct data extraction, and then critically appraise all identified studies. We will analyse data by using STATA 11 statistical software. We will demonstrate pooled estimates and determinants of neonatal mortality with effect size and 95% confidence interval.

DISCUSSION

The result from this systematic review will inform and guide health policy planners and researchers on the burden, causes, and determinants of neonatal mortality in Ethiopia. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic review in Ethiopia. We will synthesise the findings to generate up-to-date knowledge on neonatal mortality in Ethiopia.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO-CRD42018099663.

Learning From History About Reducing Infant Mortality: Contrasting the Centrality of Structural Interventions to Early 20th-Century Successes in the United States to Their Neglect in Current Global Initiatives

Policy Points Current efforts to reduce infant mortality and improve infant health in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) can benefit from awareness of the history of successful early 20th-century initiatives to reduce infant mortality in high-income countries, which occurred before widespread use of vaccination and medical technologies. Improvements in sanitation, civil registration, milk purification, and institutional structures to monitor and reduce infant mortality played a crucial role in the decline in infant mortality seen in the United States in the early 1900s. The commitment to sanitation and civil registration has not been fulfilled in many LMICs. Structural investments in sanitation and water purification as well as in civil registration systems should be central, not peripheral, to the goal of infant mortality reduction in LMICs.

CONTEXT

Between 1915 and 1950, the infant mortality rate (IMR) in the United States declined from 100 to fewer than 30 deaths per 1,000 live births, prior to the widespread use of medical technologies and vaccination. In 2015 the IMR in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) was 53.2 deaths per 1,000 live births, which is comparable to the United States in 1935 when IMR was 55.7 deaths per 1,000 live births. We contrast the role of public health institutions and interventions for IMR reduction in past versus present efforts to reduce infant mortality in LMICs to critically examine the current evidence base for reducing infant mortality and to propose ways in which lessons from history can inform efforts to address the current burden of infant mortality.

METHODS

We searched the peer-reviewed and gray literature on the causes and explanations behind the decline in infant mortality in the United States between 1850 and 1950 and in LMICs after 2000. We included historical analyses, empirical research, policy documents, and global strategies. For each key source, we assessed the factors considered by their authors to be salient in reducing infant mortality.

FINDINGS

Public health programs that played a central role in the decline in infant mortality in the United States in the early 1900s emphasized large structural interventions like filtering and chlorinating water supplies, building sanitation systems, developing the birth and death registration area, pasteurizing milk, and also educating mothers on infant care and hygiene. The creation of new institutions and policies for infant health additionally provided technical expertise, mobilized resources, and engaged women's groups and public health professionals. In contrast, contemporary literature and global policy documents on reducing infant mortality in LMICs have primarily focused on interventions at the individual, household, and health facility level, and on the widespread adoption of cheap, ostensibly accessible, and simple technologies, often at the cost of leaving the structural conditions that determine child survival largely untouched.

CONCLUSIONS

Current discourses on infant mortality are not informed by lessons from history. Although structural interventions were central to the decline in infant mortality in the United States, current interventions in LMICs that receive the most global endorsement do not address these structural determinants of infant mortality. Using a historical lens to examine the continued problem of infant mortality in LMICs suggests that structural interventions, especially regarding sanitation and civil registration, should again become core to a public health approach to addressing infant mortality.

Distance to care, care seeking and child mortality in rural Burkina Faso: findings from a population-based cross-sectional survey

Objective

Although distance has been identified as an important barrier to care, evidence for an effect of distance to care on child mortality is inconsistent. We investigated the association of distance to care with self‐reported care seeking behaviours, neonatal and post‐neonatal under‐five child mortality in rural areas of Burkina Faso.

Methods

We performed a cross‐sectional survey in 14 rural areas from November 2014 to March 2015. About 100 000 women were interviewed on their pregnancy history and about 5000 mothers were interviewed on their care seeking behaviours. Euclidean distances to the closest facility were calculated. Mixed‐effects logistic and Poisson regressions were used respectively to compute odds ratios for care seeking behaviours and rate ratios for child mortality during the 5 years prior to the survey.

Results

Thirty per cent of the children lived more than 7 km from a facility. After controlling for confounding factors, there was a strong evidence of a decreasing trend in care seeking with increasing distance to care (P ≤ 0.005). There was evidence for an increasing trend in early neonatal mortality with increasing distance to care (P = 0.028), but not for late neonatal mortality (P = 0.479) and post‐neonatal under‐five child mortality (P = 0.488). In their first week of life, neonates living 7 km or more from a facility had an 18% higher mortality rate than neonates living within 2 km of a facility (RR = 1.18; 95%CI 1.00, 1.39; P = 0.056). In the late neonatal period, despite the lack of evidence for an association of mortality with distance, it is noteworthy that rate ratios were consistent with a trend and similar to or larger than estimates in early neonatal mortality. In this period, neonates living 7 km or more from a facility had an 18% higher mortality rate than neonates living within 2 km of a facility (RR = 1.18; 95%CI 0.92, 1.52; P = 0.202). Thus, the lack of evidence may reflect lower power due to fewer deaths rather than a weaker association.

Conclusion

While better geographic access to care is strongly associated with increased care seeking in rural Burkina Faso, the impact on child mortality appears to be marginal. This suggests that, in addition to improving access to services, attention needs to be paid to quality of those services.

Effect of a mass radio campaign on family behaviours and child survival in Burkina Faso: a repeated cross-sectional, cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Media campaigns can potentially reach a large audience at relatively low cost but, to our knowledge, no randomised controlled trials have assessed their effect on a health outcome in a low-income country. We aimed to assess the effect of a radio campaign addressing family behaviours on all-cause post-neonatal under-5 child mortality in rural Burkina Faso.

METHODS

In this repeated cross-sectional, cluster randomised trial, clusters (distinct geographical areas in rural Burkina Faso with at least 40 000 inhabitants) were selected by Development Media International based on their high radio listenership (>60% of women listening to the radio in the past week) and minimum distances between radio stations to exclude population-level contamination. Clusters were randomly allocated to receive the intervention (a comprehensive radio campaign) or control group (no radio media campaign). Household surveys were performed at baseline (from December, 2011, to February, 2012), midline (in November, 2013, and after 20 months of campaigning), and endline (from November, 2014, to March, 2015, after 32 months of campaigning). Primary analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis, based on cluster-level summaries and adjusted for imbalances between groups at baseline. The primary outcome was all-cause post-neonatal under-5 child mortality. The trial was designed to detect a 20% reduction in the primary outcome with a power of 80%. Routine data from health facilities were also analysed for evidence of changes in use and these data had high statistical power. The indicators measured were new antenatal care attendances, facility deliveries, and under-5 consultations. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrial.gov, number NCT01517230.

FINDINGS

The intervention ran from March, 2012, to January, 2015. 14 clusters were selected and randomly assigned to the intervention group (n=7) or the control group (n=7). The average number of villages included per cluster was 34 in the control group and 29 in the intervention group. 2269 (82%) of 2784 women in the intervention group reported recognising the campaign's radio spots at endline. Post-neonatal under-5 child mortality decreased from 93·3 to 58·5 per 1000 livebirths in the control group and from 125·1 to 85·1 per 1000 livebirths in the intervention group. There was no evidence of an intervention effect (risk ratio 1·00, 95% CI 0·82-1·22; p>0·999). In the first year of the intervention, under-5 consultations increased from 68 681 to 83 022 in the control group and from 79 852 to 111 758 in the intervention group. The intervention effect using interrupted time-series analysis was 35% (95% CI 20-51; p<0·0001). New antenatal care attendances decreased from 13 129 to 12 997 in the control group and increased from 19 658 to 20 202 in the intervention group in the first year (intervention effect 6%, 95% CI 2-10; p=0·004). Deliveries in health facilities decreased from 10 598 to 10 533 in the control group and increased from 12 155 to 12 902 in the intervention group in the first year (intervention effect 7%, 95% CI 2-11; p=0·004).

INTERPRETATION

A comprehensive radio campaign had no detectable effect on child mortality. Substantial decreases in child mortality were observed in both groups over the intervention period, reducing our ability to detect an effect. This, nevertheless, represents the first randomised controlled trial to show that mass media alone can change health-seeking behaviours.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust and Planet Wheeler Foundation.

Breastfeeding Behaviors and the Innate Immune System of Human Milk: Working Together to Protect Infants against Inflammation, HIV-1, and Other Infections

The majority of infants’ breastfeeding from their HIV-infected mothers do not acquire HIV-1 infection despite exposure to cell-free virus and cell-associated virus in HIV-infected breast milk. Paradoxically, exclusive breastfeeding regardless of the HIV status of the mother has led to a significant decrease in mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) compared with non-exclusive breastfeeding. Although it remains unclear how these HIV-exposed infants remain uninfected despite repeated and prolonged exposure to HIV-1, the low rate of transmission is suggestive of a multitude of protective, short-lived bioactive innate immune factors in breast milk. Indeed, recent studies of soluble factors in breast milk shed new light on mechanisms of neonatal HIV-1 protection. This review highlights the role and significance of innate immune factors in HIV-1 susceptibility and infection. Prevention of MTCT of HIV-1 is likely due to multiple factors, including innate immune factors such as lactoferrin and elafin among many others. In pursuing this field, our lab was the first to show that soluble toll-like receptor 2 (sTLR2) directly inhibits HIV infection, integration, and inflammation. More recently, we demonstrated that sTLR2 directly binds to selective HIV-1 proteins, including p17, gp41, and p24, leading to significantly reduced NFκB activation, interleukin-8 production, CCR5 expression, and HIV infection in a dose-dependent manner. Thus, a clearer understanding of soluble milk-derived innate factors with known antiviral functions may provide new therapeutic insights to reduce vertical HIV-1 transmission and will have important implications for protection against HIV-1 infection at other mucosal sites. Furthermore, innate bioactive factors identified in human milk may serve not only in protecting infants against infections and inflammation but also the elderly; thus, opening the door for novel innate immune therapeutics to protect newborns, infants, adults, and the elderly.

Child survival revolutions revisited - lessons learned from Bangladesh, Nicaragua, Rwanda and Vietnam

Analysing child mortality may enhance our perspective on global achievements in child survival. We used data from surveillance sites in Bangladesh, Nicaragua and Vietnam and Demographic Health Surveys in Rwanda to explore the development of neonatal and under‐five mortality. The mortality curves showed dramatic reductions over time, but child mortality in the four countries peaked during wars and catastrophes and was rapidly reduced by targeted interventions, multisectorial development efforts and community engagement.

Conclusion: Lessons learned from these countries may be useful when tackling future challenges, including persistent neonatal deaths, survival inequalities and the consequences of climate change and migration.

Operations research in global health: a scoping review with a focus on the themes of health equity and impact

BACKGROUND

Operations research (OR) is a discipline that uses advanced analytical methods (e.g. simulation, optimisation, decision analysis) to better understand complex systems and aid in decision-making. Herein, we present a scoping review of the use of OR to analyse issues in global health, with an emphasis on health equity and research impact. A systematic search of five databases was designed to identify relevant published literature. A global overview of 1099 studies highlights the geographic distribution of OR and common OR methods used. From this collection of literature, a narrative description of the use of OR across four main application areas of global health - health systems and operations, clinical medicine, public health and health innovation - is also presented. The theme of health equity is then explored in detail through a subset of 44 studies. Health equity is a critical element of global health that cuts across all four application areas, and is an issue particularly amenable to analysis through OR. Finally, we present seven select cases of OR analyses that have been implemented or have influenced decision-making in global health policy or practice. Based on these cases, we identify three key drivers for success in bridging the gap between OR and global health policy, namely international collaboration with stakeholders, use of contextually appropriate data, and varied communication outlets for research findings. Such cases, however, represent a very small proportion of the literature found.

CONCLUSION

Poor availability of representative and quality data, and a lack of collaboration between those who develop OR models and stakeholders in the contexts where OR analyses are intended to serve, were found to be common challenges for effective OR modelling in global health.

Observations from Mortality Trends at The Children's Hospital, Accra, 2003-2013

Objective

Facility-based studies provide an unparalleled opportunity to assess interventions deployed in hospitals to reduce child mortality which is not easily captured in the national data. We examined mortality trends at the Princess Marie Louise Children’s Hospital (PML) and related it to interventions deployed in the hospital and community to reduce child mortality and achieve the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4).

Methods

The study was a cross-sectional review of data on consecutive patients who died at the hospital over a period of 11 years, between 2003 and 2013. The total admissions for each year, the major hospital-based and population-based interventions, which took place within the period, were also obtained.

Results

Out of a total of 37,012 admissions, 1,314 (3.6%) deaths occurred and admissions tripled during the period. The average annual change in mortality was -7.12% overall, -7.38% in under-fives, and -1.47% in children ≥5 years. The majority of the deaths, 1,187 (90.3%), occurred in under-fives. The observed decrease in under-five (and overall) mortality rate occurred in a specific and peculiar pattern. Most of the decrease occurred during the period between 2003 and 2006. After that there was a noticeable increase from 2006 to 2008. Then, the rate slowly decreased until the end of the study period in 2013. There was a concomitant decline in malaria mortality following a pattern similar to the decline observed in other parts of the continent during this period. Several interventions might have contributed to the reduction in mortality including the change in malaria treatment policy, improved treatment of malnutrition and increasing paediatric input.

Conclusion

Under-fives mortality at PML has declined considerably; however, the reduction in mortality in older children has been minimal and thus requires special attention. Data collection for mortality reviews should be planned and commissioned regularly in hospitals to assess the effects of interventions and understand the context in which they occur. This will provide benchmarks and an impetus for improving care, identify shortfalls and ensure that the gains in child survival are maintained.

Sources of variation in under-5 mortality across sub-Saharan Africa: a spatial analysis

BACKGROUND

Detailed spatial understanding of levels and trends in under-5 mortality is needed to improve the targeting of interventions to the areas of highest need, and to understand the sources of variation in mortality. To improve this understanding, we analysed local-level information on child mortality across sub-Saharan Africa between 1980-2010.

METHODS

We used data from 82 Demographic and Health Surveys in 28 sub-Saharan African countries, including the location and timing of 3·24 million childbirths and 393 685 deaths, to develop high-resolution spatial maps of under-5 mortality in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. These estimates were at a resolution of 0·1 degree latitude by 0·1 degree longitude (roughly 10 km × 10 km). We then analysed this spatial information to distinguish within-country versus between-country sources of variation in mortality, to examine the extent to which declines in mortality have been accompanied by convergence in the distribution of mortality, and to study localised drivers of mortality differences, including temperature, malaria burden, and conflict.

FINDINGS

In our sample of sub-Saharan African countries from the 1980s to the 2000s, within-country differences in under-5 mortality accounted for 74-78% of overall variation in under-5 mortality across space and over time. Mortality differed significantly across only 8-15% of country borders, supporting the role of local, rather than national, factors in driving mortality patterns. We found that by the end of the study period, 23% of the eligible children in the study countries continue to live in mortality hotspots-areas where, if current trends continue, the Sustainable Developent Goals mortality targets will not be met. In multivariate analysis, within-country mortality levels at each pixel were significantly related to local temperature, malaria burden, and recent history of conflict.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that sub-national determinants explain a greater portion of under-5 mortality than do country-level characteristics. Sub-national measures of child mortality could provide a more accurate, and potentially more actionable, portrayal of where and why children are still dying than can national statistics.

FUNDING

The Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.

Acceptability of malaria rapid diagnostic tests administered by village health workers in Pangani District, North eastern Tanzania

Background

Malaria continues to top the list of the ten most threatening diseases to child survival in Tanzania. The country has a functional policy for appropriate case management of malaria with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) from hospital level all the way to dispensaries, which are the first points of healthcare services in the national referral system. However, access to these health services in Tanzania is limited, especially in rural areas. Formalization of trained village health workers (VHWs) can strengthen and extend the scope of public health services, including diagnosis and management of uncomplicated malaria in resource-constrained settings. Despite long experience with VHWs in various health interventions, Tanzania has not yet formalized its involvement in malaria case management. This study presents evidence on acceptability of RDTs used by VHWs in rural northeastern Tanzania.

Methods

A cross-sectional study using quantitative and qualitative approaches was conducted between March and May 2012 in Pangani district, northeastern Tanzania, on community perceptions, practices and acceptance of RDTs used by VHWs.

Results

Among 346 caregivers of children under 5 years old, no evidence was found of differences in awareness of HIV rapid diagnostic tests and RDTs (54 vs. 46 %, p = 0.134). Of all respondents, 92 % expressed trust in RDT results, 96 % reported readiness to accept RDTs by VHWs, while 92 % expressed willingness to contribute towards the cost of RDTs used by VHWs. Qualitative results matched positive perceptions, attitudes and acceptance of mothers towards the use of RDTs by VHWs reported in the household surveys. Appropriate training, reliable supplies, affordability and close supervision emerged as important recommendations for implementation of RDTs by VHWs.

Conclusion

RDTs implemented by VHWs are acceptable to rural communities in northeastern Tanzania. While families are willing to contribute towards costs of sustaining these services, policy decisions for scaling-up will need to consider the available and innovative lessons for successful universally accessible and acceptable services in keeping with national health policy and sustainable development goals.

A mixed methods protocol to evaluate the effect and cost-effectiveness of an Integrated electronic Diagnosis Approach (IeDA) for the management of childhood illnesses at primary health facilities in Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

Burkina Faso introduced the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) strategy in 2003. However, an evaluation conducted in 2013 found that only 28 % of children were assessed for three danger signs as recommended by IMCI, and only 15 % of children were correctly classified. About 30 % of children were correctly prescribed with an antibiotic for suspected pneumonia or oral rehydration salts (ORS) for diarrhoea, and 40 % were correctly referred. Recent advances in information and communication technologies (ICT) and use of electronic clinical protocols hold the potential to transform healthcare delivery in low-income countries. However, no evidence is available on the effect of ICT on adherence to IMCI. This paper describes the research protocol of a mixed methods study that aims to measure the effect of the Integrated electronic Diagnosis Approach innovation (an electronic IMCI protocol provided to nurses) in two regions of Burkina Faso.

METHODS/DESIGN

The study combines a stepped-wedge trial, a realistic evaluation and an economic study in order to capture the effect of the innovation after its introduction on the level of adherence, cost and acceptability.

DISCUSSION

The main challenge is to interconnect the three substudies. In integrating outcome, process and cost data, we focus on three key questions: (i) How does the effectiveness and the cost of the intervention vary by type of health worker and type of health centre? (ii) What is the impact of changes in the content, coverage and quality of the IeDA intervention on adherence and cost-effectiveness? (iii) What mechanisms of change (including costs) might explain the relationship between the IeDA intervention and adherence?

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02341469 .

Measuring pediatric quality of care in rural clinics-a multi-country assessment-Cambodia, Guatemala, Zambia and Kenya

OBJECTIVE

To assess the quality of care provided in rural pediatric facilities in Cambodia, Guatemala, Kenya and Zambia DESIGN: All public health facilities in four districts in each country were included in the assessment. Based on utilization patterns, five children under five were selected randomly from each facility to perform the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) assessments followed by exit interviews with their caretakers.

SETTING

Seventy rural ambulatory pediatric care facilities.

PARTICIPANTS

Three hundred and forty pediatric case management observations and exit interviews with child caretakers.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

IMCI index of observed quality of care for patient assessment and counseling RESULTS: Screening for danger signs, diarrhea and fever showed significant differences between countries (P < 0.001), with facilities in Cambodia and Guatemala performing better. More than 90% of the children were screened for fever in all three countries, but <75% were screened in Cambodia. The assessment of nutritional status, checking weight against growth chart and palmar pallor for anemia, was suboptimal in all countries. Mean consultation time ranged from 8.2 minutes in Zambia and 12.6 minutes in Guatemala. Child age, consultation time, health provider cadre and presenting symptoms were significantly associated with higher quality of assessment and counseling care as measured by the IMCI index.

CONCLUSIONS

Achieving the goals of universal health coverage in these contexts must be complimented with accelerated efforts for capacity investments at the primary care level to ensure optimal quality of healthcare and favorable health outcomes for children, who still experience a high disease burden for these common IMCI conditions.

Verbal/Social Autopsy in Niger 2012-2013: A new tool for a better understanding of the neonatal and child mortality situation

Niger, one of the poorest countries in the world, recently used for the first time the integrated verbal and social autopsy (VASA) tool to assess the biological causes and social and health system determinants of neonatal and child deaths. These notes summarize the Nigerien experience in the use of this new tool, the steps taken for high level engagement of the Niger government and stakeholders for the wide dissemination of the study results and their use to support policy development and maternal, neonatal and child health programming in the country. The experience in Niger reflects lessons learned by other developing countries in strengthening the use of data for evidence–based decision making, and highlights the need for the global health community to provide continued support to country data initiatives, including the collection, analysis, interpretation and utilization of high quality data for the development of targeted, highly effective interventions. In Niger, this is supporting the country’s progress toward achieving Millennium Development Goal 4. A follow–up VASA study is being planned and the tool is being integrated into the National Health Management Information System. VASA studies have now been completed or are under way in additional sub–Saharan African countries, in each through the same collaborative process used in Niger to bring together health policy makers, program planners and development partners.

Determinants and morbidities of multiple anthropometric deficits in southwest rural Ethiopia

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to compare undernutrition with child morbidity and their determinants according to a composite index of anthropometrical failures and conventional indices.

METHODS

We used data generated from three rounds of a longitudinal panel survey conducted in nine districts in Oromiya Region and the Southern Nations, Nationality and Peoples Region of Ethiopia. We estimated undernutrition using conventional indices and composite index of anthropometrical failures. Included in this analysis were 579, 674, and 674 children age <5 y in rounds 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The households were recruited using the expanded program on immunization sampling method. The hierarchical nature of the data Applied nutritional investigation was taken into account during the statistical analysis using a two-level mixed-effects logistic regression model.

RESULTS

A composite index of anthropological failure, estimated 45.1%, 42.4%, and 46.4% of the children were undernourished in round 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The conventional indices estimated 24.4%, 24.2%, and 30.4% underweight in round 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Being female (odds ratio [OR], 7.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.9-14.0); low dietary diversity (OR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.6-5.9); medium dietary diversity (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.3), and no special foods during illness (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2-2.8) were determinant of multiple anthropometrical failures. Children with multiple anthropometric failures were 2.6 times more likely to report child morbidities (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.1-5.9). However, none of the conventional indices were associated with any of the reported child morbidities, such as stunting (OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.8-1.4), wasting (OR, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.5-1.6), or underweight (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-2.0).

CONCLUSION

The conventional indices underestimated the prevalence of undernutrition by 20.7%. Children with multiple anthropometric failures are at high risk for developing child morbidities and should benefit from nutrition intervention to reduce child morbidities.

Equity improvements in maternal and newborn care indicators: results from the Bardiya district of Nepal

Community-based maternal and newborn care interventions have been shown to improve neonatal survival and other key health indicators. It is important to evaluate whether the improvement in health indicators is accompanied by a parallel increase in the equitable distribution of the intervention activities, and the uptake of healthy newborn care practices. We present an analysis of equity improvements after the implementation of a Community Based Newborn Care Package (CB-NCP) in the Bardiya district of Nepal. The package was implemented alongside other programs that were already in place within the district. We present changes in concentration indices (CIndices) as measures of changes in equity, as well as percentage changes in coverage, between baseline and endline. The CIndices were derived from wealth scores that were based on household assets, and they were compared usingt-tests. We observed statistically significant improvements in equity for facility delivery [CIndex: -0.15 (-0.24, -0.06)], knowledge of at least three newborn danger signs [-0.026(-0.06, -0.003)], breastfeeding within 1 h [-0.05(-0.11, -0.0001)], at least one antenatal visit with a skilled provider [-0.25(-0.04, -0.01)], at least four antenatal visits from any provider [-0.15(-0.19, -0.10)] and birth preparedness [-0.09(-0.12, -0.06)]. The largest increases in practices were observed for facility delivery (50%), immediate drying (34%) and delayed bathing (29%). These results and those of similar studies are evidence that community-based interventions delivered by female community health volunteers can be instrumental in improving equity in levels of facility delivery and other newborn care behaviours. We recommend that equity be evaluated in other similar settings within Nepal in order to determine if similar results are observed.

Predictors of stillbirths and neonatal deaths in rural western Uganda

OBJECTIVE

To explore pregnancy outcomes at a referral hospital in rural western Uganda.

METHODS

A retrospective study was undertaken using data for all deliveries at Virika Hospital, Fort Portal, Uganda, between July 1, 2009, and October 22, 2011. A detailed review of delivery logs was conducted. Categories were created for obstetric risk factors (e.g. grand multipara, history of hypertension), maternal delivery complications (e.g. eclampsia, hemorrhage), and neonatal complications (e.g. fetal distress, birth defects).

RESULTS

Overall, 4883 deliveries were included. Of the 517 neonates who did not survive, 430 (83.2%) had been stillborn. After controlling for parity, gestational age, obstetric risk factors, and neonatal complications, risk factors for stillbirth included maternal delivery complications (risk ratio [RR] 3.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.34-4.71; P<0.001) and living 51-100km from the hospital (RR 3.37, 95% CI 2.41-4.74; P<0.001). Risk factors for neonatal death included neonatal complications (RR 5.79, 95% CI 2.49-13.46; P=0.001) and maternal delivery complications (RR 3.17, 95% CI 1.47-6.82; P=0.003).

CONCLUSION

Qualified providers need to be deployed to rural areas of Uganda to facilitate the prompt identification and management of pregnancy, delivery, and neonatal complications.

Changing Patterns of Disease and Mortality at the Children's Hospital, Accra: Are Infections Rising?

BACKGROUND

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have led to reductions in child mortality world-wide. This has, invariably, led to the changes in the epidemiology of diseases associated with child mortality. Although facility based data do not capture all deaths, they provide an opportunity to confirm diagnoses and insight into these changes which are relevant for further disease control.

OBJECTIVE

To identify changes in the disease pattern of children who died at the Princess Marie Louise Children's Hospital (PML) in Ghana from 2003-2013.

METHODS

A cross sectional review of mortality data was carried out at PML. The age, sex, duration of admission and diagnosis of consecutive patients who died at the hospital between 2003 and 2013 were reviewed. This information was entered into an Access database and analysed using Stata 11.0 software.

RESULTS

Altogether, 1314 deaths (3.6%) occurred out of a total of 37,012 admissions. The majority of the deaths, 1187 (90.3%), occurred in children under the age of 5 years. While deaths caused by malaria, malnutrition, HIV infection and diarrhoea decreased, deaths caused by pneumonia were rising. Suspected septicaemia and meningitis showed a fluctuating trend with only a modest decrease between 2012 and 2013. The ten leading causes of mortality among under-fives were malnutrition, 363 (30.6%); septicaemia, 301 (25.4%); pneumonia, 218 (18.4%); HIV infection, 183 (15.4%); malaria, 155 (13.1%); anaemia, 135 (11.4%); gastroenteritis/dehydration, 110 (9.3%); meningitis, 58 (4.9%); tuberculosis, 34 (2.9%) and hypoglycaemia, 27 (2.3%). For children aged 5-9 years, the leading causes of mortality were malaria, 42 (42.9%); HIV infection, 27 (27.6%); anaemia, 14 (14.3%); septicaemia, 12 (12.2%); meningitis, 10 (10.2%); malnutrition, 9 (9.2%); tuberculosis, 5 (5.1%); pneumonia, 4 (4.1%); encephalopathy, 3 (3.1%); typhoid fever, 3 (3.1%) and lymphoma, 3 (3.1%). In the adolescent age group, malaria, 8 (27.6%); anaemia, 6 (20.7%); HIV infection, 5 (17.2%); sickle cell disease, 3 (10.3%) and meningitis, 3 (10.3%) were most common.

CONCLUSION

There has been a decline in the under-five mortality at PML over the years; however, deaths caused by pneumonia appear to be rising. This highlights the need for better diagnostic services, wider HIV screening and clinical audits to improve outcomes in order to achieve further reductions in child mortality and maintain the gains.

Costs of hospitalization in preterm infants: impact of antenatal steroid therapy

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the costs of hospitalization in premature infants exposed or not to antenatal corticosteroids (ACS).

METHOD

Retrospective cohort analysis of premature infants with gestational age of 26-32 weeks without congenital malformations, born between January of 2006 and December of 2009 in a tertiary, public university hospital. Maternal and neonatal demographic data, neonatal morbidities, and hospital inpatient services during the hospitalization were collected. The costs were analyzed using the microcosting technique.

RESULTS

Of 220 patients that met the inclusion criteria, 211 (96%) charts were reviewed: 170 newborns received at least one dose of antenatal corticosteroid and 41 did not receive the antenatal medication. There was a 14-37% reduction of the different cost components in infants exposed to ACS when the entire population was analyzed, without statistical significance. Regarding premature infants who were discharged alive, there was a 24-47% reduction of the components of the hospital services costs for the ACS group, with a significant decrease in the length of stay in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). In very-low birth weight infants, considering only the survivors, ACS promoted a 30-50% reduction of all elements of the costs, with a 36% decrease in the total cost (p=0.008). The survivors with gestational age <30 weeks showed a decrease in the total cost of 38% (p=0.008) and a 49% reduction of NICU length of stay (p=0.011).

CONCLUSION

ACS reduces the costs of hospitalization of premature infants who are discharged alive, especially those with very low birth weight and <30 weeks of gestational age.

Effect of Facilitation of Local Stakeholder Groups on Equity in Neonatal Survival; Results from the NeoKIP Trial in Northern Vietnam

BACKGROUND

To operationalize the post-MDG agenda, there is a need to evaluate the effects of health interventions on equity. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect on equity in neonatal survival of the NeoKIP trial (ISRCTN44599712), a population-based, cluster-randomized intervention trial with facilitated local stakeholder groups for improved neonatal survival in Quang Ninh province in northern Vietnam.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with all mothers experiencing neonatal mortality and a random sample of 6% of all mothers with a live birth in the study area during the study period (July 2008-June 2011). Multilevel regression analyses were performed, stratifying mothers according to household wealth, maternal education and mother's ethnicity in order to assess impact on equity in neonatal survival.

FINDINGS

In the last year of study the risk of neonatal death was reduced by 69% among poor mothers in the intervention area as compared to poor mothers in the control area (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.15-0.66). This pattern was not evident among mothers from non-poor households. Mothers with higher education had a 50% lower risk of neonatal mortality if living in the intervention area during the same time period (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.28-0.90), whereas no significant effect was detected among mothers with low education.

INTERPRETATION

The NeoKIP intervention promoted equity in neonatal survival based on wealth but increased inequity based on maternal education.

Behavior Change After 20 Months of a Radio Campaign Addressing Key Lifesaving Family Behaviors for Child Survival: Midline Results From a Cluster Randomized Trial in Rural Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

In Burkina Faso, a comprehensive 35-month radio campaign addressed key, multiple family behaviors for improving under-5 child survival and was evaluated using a repeated cross-sectional, cluster randomized design. The primary outcome of the trial was postneonatal under-5 child mortality. This paper reports on behavior change achieved at midline.

METHOD

Fourteen community radio stations in 14 geographic areas were selected based on their high listenership. Seven areas were randomly allocated to receive the intervention while the other 7 areas served as controls. The campaign was launched in March 2012. Cross-sectional surveys of about 5,000 mothers of under-5 children, living in villages close to the radio stations, were conducted at baseline (from December 2011 to February 2012) and at midline (in November 2013), after 20 months of campaigning. Statistical analyses were based on cluster-level summaries using a difference-in-difference (DiD) approach and adjusted for imbalances between arms at baseline. In addition, routine health facility data were analyzed for evidence of changes in health facility utilization.

RESULTS

At midline, 75% of women in the intervention arm reported recognizing radio spots from the campaign. There was some evidence of the campaign having positive effects on care seeking for diarrhea (adjusted DiD, 17.5 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5 to 32.5; P= .03), antibiotic treatment for fast/difficult breathing (adjusted DiD, 29.6 percentage points; 95% CI, 3.5 to 55.7; P= .03), and saving money during pregnancy (adjusted DiD, 12.8 percentage points; 95% CI, 1.4 to 24.2; P= .03). For other target behaviors, there was little or no evidence of an impact of the campaign after adjustment for baseline imbalances and confounding factors. There was weak evidence of a positive correlation between the intensity of broadcasting of messages and reported changes in target behaviors. Routine health facility data were consistent with a greater increase in the intervention arm than in the control arm in all-cause under-5 consultations (33% versus 17%, respectively), but the difference was not statistically significant (P= .40).

CONCLUSION

The radio campaign reached a high proportion of the primary target population, but the evidence for an impact on key child survival-related behaviors at midline was mixed.

Towards universal civil registration and vital statistics systems: the time is now

The health and development challenges of the coming decades cannot be tackled effectively without reliable data for births, deaths, and causes of death, which only a comprehensive civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system can deliver. Alternative methods such as surveys, censuses, or surveillance are not adequate substitutes from a statistical perspective, and do not provide individuals with the legal documentation they need to benefit from services and participate fully in a modern society. Research is needed to generate and disseminate evidence about which CRVS strategies work best in which contexts and to ensure that the potential benefits of innovation are successfully scaled up, and that possible pitfalls are avoided. Research findings need to be compiled and made readily accessible to users for policy making, programming, and practice. Modernisation of CRVS systems necessitates new, broad-based national and international coalitions. The global architecture for CRVS, so far dominated by UN agencies, should extend to include bilateral donors, funds, foundations, non-governmental organisations, the private sector, academic institutions, and civil society. This change is essential to ensure that further development of CRVS systems is inclusive, participatory, multisectoral, and has a strong evidence base.

Enhancing the child survival agenda to promote, protect, and support early child development

High rates of child mortality and lost developmental potential in children under 5 years of age remain important challenges and drivers of inequity in the developing world. Substantive progress has been made toward Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 to improve child survival, but as we move into the post-2015 sustainable development agenda, much more work is needed to ensure that all children can realize their full and holistic physical, cognitive, psychological, and socio-emotional development potential. This article presents child survival and development as a continuous and multifaceted process and suggests that a life-course perspective of child development should be at the core of future policy making, programming, and research. We suggest that increased attention to child development, beyond child survival, is key to operationalize the sustainable development goals (SDGs), address inequities, build on the demographic dividend, and maximize gains in human potential. An important step toward implementation will be to increase integration of existing interventions for child survival and child development. Integrated interventions have numerous potential benefits, including optimization of resource use, potential additive impacts across multiple domains of health and development, and opportunity to realize a more holistic approach to client-centered care. However, a notable challenge to integration is the continued division between the health sector and other sectors that support child development. Despite these barriers, empirical evidence is available to suggest that successful multisectoral coordination is feasible and leads to improved short- and long-term outcomes in human, social, and economic development.

Breastfeeding Rates and Growth Charts--the Zhejiang Infant Feeding Trial

A randomised control trial was undertaken in Hangzhou, China, to study the influence of the growth chart used on breastfeeding rates. Mothers with infants who were being fully breastfed at 6 weeks after birth (n = 1602) were invited to participate in the trial; 1415 agreed to participate and 1295 completed the study. Two growth charts were used, one that was heavier for the first six months of life (Chart A, n = 686) and a lighter growth chart (Chart B, n = 609). Mothers were interviewed and infants measured at 6 weeks and 3, 4, 5 and 6 months after delivery. At 6 months the full breastfeeding rates were 18.1% in the group using the heavier growth chart compared to 22.8% in the lighter growth chart group. After adjusting for potential confounders this difference remained significant (aOR 1.41, 95% confidence intervals 1.02, 1.93). These results suggest that breastfeeding rates may be influenced by the type of growth chart used. Mothers who perceive that their infants are not growing adequately (i.e., using the heavier charts) may introduce other foods to their infants earlier than mothers using the lighter chart. While a larger trial is required to confirm the results, in the interim it is suggested that if heavier growth charts are used, a lower percentile line could be used to assess adequacy of growth.

Health insurance and child mortality in rural Burkina Faso

Background

Micro health insurance schemes have been implemented across developing countries as a means of facilitating access to modern medical care, with the ultimate aim of improving health. This effect, however, has not been explored sufficiently.

Objective

We investigated the effect of enrolment into community-based health insurance on mortality in children under 5 years of age in a health and demographic surveillance system in Nouna, Burkina Faso.

Design

We analysed the effect of health insurance enrolment on child mortality with a Cox regression model. We adjusted for variables that we found to be related to the enrolment in health insurance in a preceding analysis.

Results

Based on the analysis of 33,500 children, the risk of mortality was 46% lower in children enrolled in health insurance as compared to the non-enrolled children (HR=0.54, 95% CI 0.43–0.68) after adjustment for possible confounders. We identified socioeconomic status, father's education, distance to the health facility, year of birth, and insurance status of the mother at time of birth as the major determinants of health insurance enrolment.

Conclusions

The strong effect of health insurance enrolment on child mortality may be explained by increased utilisation of health services by enrolled children; however, other non-observed factors cannot be excluded. Because malaria is a main cause of death in the study area, early consultation of health services in case of infection could prevent many deaths. Concerning the magnitude of the effect, implementation of health insurance could be a major driving factor of reduction in child mortality in the developing world.

The post-2015 development agenda: keeping our focus on the worst off

Non-communicable diseases now account for the majority of the global burden of disease and an international campaign has emerged to raise their priority on the post-2015 development agenda. We argue, to the contrary, that there remain strong reasons to prioritize maternal and child health. Policy-makers ought to assign highest priority to the health conditions that afflict the worst off. In virtue of how little healthy life they have had, children who die young are among the globally worst off. Moreover, many interventions to deal with the conditions that cause mortality in the young are low-cost and provide great benefits to their recipients. Consistent with the original Millennium Development Goals, the international community should continue to prioritize reductions in communicable diseases, neonatal conditions, and maternal health despite the shifts in the global burden of disease.

Decreasing disparities in infant survival using surveillance data from Burkina Faso

We assessed changes in the effect size of risk factors for infant mortality comparing a birth cohort from 2005 to 2010 with a birth cohort from 1993 to 1999 in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in Burkina Faso. Single- and three-level Cox proportional hazards regression models were used for analysis. Independent variables among others included year of birth, ethnicity, religion, age of the mother, birth order, death of the mother, being a twin, and distance to the closest health facility. We observed an infant mortality rate of about 51/1,000 person-years. The strongest risk factors were death of the mother and being a twin, which were also the strongest risk factors from the previous analysis period. Compared with the period 1993-1999, the effect of most risk factors decreased, notably ethnicity, religious affiliation, distance to the closest health facility, birth order, and season of birth. The strongest reduction in mortality occurred in the groups with the previously highest infant mortality rates in 1993-1999.

The post-2015 agenda: staying the course in maternal and child survival

In this article, we draw on available evidence from Countdown to 2015 and other sources to make the case for keeping women and children at the heart of the next development agenda that will replace the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) framework after 2015. We provide a status update on global progress in achieving MDGs 4 and 5, reduce child mortality and improve maternal health, respectively--showing that although considerable mortality reductions have been achieved, many more women's and children's lives can be saved every day through available, cost effective interventions. We describe key underlying determinants of poor maternal and child health outcomes and the need for well-coordinated, comprehensive approaches for addressing them such as introducing a combination of nutrition specific and sensitive interventions to reduce pervasive malnutrition, targeting interventions to the underserved to reduce inequities in access to care, and increasing women's social status through improved access to education and income-earning opportunities. In the wake of population momentum and emergencies such as the recent ebola outbreak and other humanitarian crises, health systems must be strengthened to be able to respond to these pressures. In conclusion, we underscore that the unfinished business of women's and children's health must be prioritized in the days ahead, and that ending preventable maternal and child deaths is not only a moral obligation but is achievable and essential to sustainable development moving forward.

Childhood mortality and its association with household wealth in rural and semi-urban Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between household wealth and under-5 year mortality in rural and semi-urban Burkina Faso.

METHODS

The study included 15 543 children born between 2005 and 2010 in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Information on household wealth was collected in 2009. Two separate wealth indicators were calculated by principal components analysis for the rural and the semi-urban households, which were then divided into quintiles accordingly. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to study the effect of the respective wealth measure on under-5 mortality.

RESULTS

We observed 1201 childhood deaths, corresponding to 5-year survival probability of 93.6% and 88% in the semi-urban and rural area, respectively. In the semi-urban area, household wealth was significantly related to under-5 mortality after adjustment for confounding. There was a similar but non-significant effect of household wealth on infant mortality, too. There was no effect of household wealth on under-5 mortality in rural children.

CONCLUSIONS

Results from this study indicate that the more privileged children from the semi-urban area with access to piped water and electricity have an advantage in under-5 survival, while under-5 mortality in the rural area is rather homogeneous and still relatively high.

Every Newborn: health-systems bottlenecks and strategies to accelerate scale-up in countries

Universal coverage of essential interventions would reduce neonatal deaths by an estimated 71%, benefit women and children after the first month, and reduce stillbirths. However, the packages with the greatest effect (care around birth, care of small and ill newborn babies), have low and inequitable coverage and are the most sensitive markers of health system function. In eight of the 13 countries with the most neonatal deaths (55% worldwide), we undertook a systematic assessment of bottlenecks to essential maternal and newborn health care, involving more than 600 experts. Of 2465 bottlenecks identified, common constraints were found in all high-burden countries, notably regarding the health workforce, financing, and service delivery. However, bottlenecks for specific interventions might differ across similar health systems. For example, the implementation of kangaroo mother care was noted as challenging in the four Asian country workshops, but was regarded as a feasible aspect of preterm care by respondents in the four African countries. If all high-burden countries achieved the neonatal mortality rates of their region's fastest progressing countries, then the mortality goal of ten or fewer per 1000 livebirths by 2035 recommended in this Series and the Every Newborn Action Plan would be exceeded. We therefore examined fast progressing countries to identify strategies to reduce neonatal mortality. We identified several key factors: (1) workforce planning to increase numbers and upgrade specific skills for care at birth and of small and ill newborn babies, task sharing, incentives for rural health workers; (2) financial protection measures, such as expansion of health insurance, conditional cash transfers, and performance-based financing; and (3) dynamic leadership including innovation and community empowerment. Adapting from the 2005 Lancet Series on neonatal survival and drawing on this Every Newborn Series, we propose a country-led, data-driven process to sharpen national health plans, seize opportunities to address the quality gap for care at birth and care of small and ill newborn babies, and systematically scale up care to reach every mother and newborn baby, particularly the poorest.

Who has been caring for the baby?

Nearly a decade ago, The Lancet published the Neonatal Survival Series, with an ambitious call for integration of newborn care across the continuum of reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health and nutrition (RMNCH). In this first of five papers in the Every Newborn Series, we consider what has changed during this decade, assessing progress on the basis of a systematic policy heuristic including agenda-setting, policy formulation and adoption, leadership and partnership, implementation, and evaluation of effect. Substantial progress has been made in agenda setting and policy formulation for newborn health, as witnessed by the shift from maternal and child health to maternal, newborn, and child health as a standard. However, investment and large-scale implementation have been disappointingly small, especially in view of the size of the burden and potential for rapid change and synergies throughout the RMNCH continuum. Moreover, stillbirths remain invisible on the global health agenda. Hence that progress in improvement of newborn survival and reduction of stillbirths lags behind that of maternal mortality and deaths for children aged 1-59 months is not surprising. Faster progress is possible, but with several requirements: clear communication of the interventions with the greatest effect and how to overcome bottlenecks for scale-up; national leadership, and technical capacity to integrate and implement these interventions; global coordination of partners, especially within countries, in provision of technical assistance and increased funding; increased domestic investment in newborn health, and access to specific commodities and equipment where needed; better data to monitor progress, with local data used for programme improvement; and accountability for results at all levels, including demand from communities and mortality targets in the post-2015 framework. Who will step up during the next decade to ensure decision making in countries leads to implementation of stillbirth and newborn health interventions within RMNCH programmes?

Every Newborn: progress, priorities, and potential beyond survival

In this Series paper, we review trends since the 2005 Lancet Series on Neonatal Survival to inform acceleration of progress for newborn health post-2015. On the basis of multicountry analyses and multi-stakeholder consultations, we propose national targets for 2035 of no more than 10 stillbirths per 1000 total births, and no more than 10 neonatal deaths per 1000 livebirths, compatible with the under-5 mortality targets of no more than 20 per 1000 livebirths. We also give targets for 2030. Reduction of neonatal mortality has been slower than that for maternal and child (1-59 months) mortality, slowest in the highest burden countries, especially in Africa, and reduction is even slower for stillbirth rates. Birth is the time of highest risk, when more than 40% of maternal deaths (total about 290,000) and stillbirths or neonatal deaths (5·5 million) occur every year. These deaths happen rapidly, needing a rapid response by health-care workers. The 2·9 million annual neonatal deaths worldwide are attributable to three main causes: infections (0·6 million), intrapartum conditions (0·7 million), and preterm birth complications (1·0 million). Boys have a higher biological risk of neonatal death, but girls often have a higher social risk. Small size at birth--due to preterm birth or small-for-gestational-age (SGA), or both--is the biggest risk factor for more than 80% of neonatal deaths and increases risk of post-neonatal mortality, growth failure, and adult-onset non-communicable diseases. South Asia has the highest SGA rates and sub-Saharan Africa has the highest preterm birth rates. Babies who are term SGA low birthweight (10·4 million in these regions) are at risk of stunting and adult-onset metabolic conditions. 15 million preterm births, especially of those younger than 32 weeks' gestation, are at the highest risk of neonatal death, with ongoing post-neonatal mortality risk, and important risk of long-term neurodevelopmental impairment, stunting, and non-communicable conditions. 4 million neonates annually have other life-threatening or disabling conditions including intrapartum-related brain injury, severe bacterial infections, or pathological jaundice. Half of the world's newborn babies do not get a birth certificate, and most neonatal deaths and almost all stillbirths have no death certificate. To count deaths is crucial to change them. Failure to improve birth outcomes by 2035 will result in an estimated 116 million deaths, 99 million survivors with disability or lost development potential, and millions of adults at increased risk of non-communicable diseases after low birthweight. In the post-2015 era, improvements in child survival, development, and human capital depend on ensuring a healthy start for every newborn baby--the citizens and workforce of the future.

Adoption of recommended practices and basic technologies in a low-income setting

OBJECTIVE

In global health considerable attention is focused on the search for innovations; however, reports tracking their adoption in routine hospital settings from low-income countries are absent.

DESIGN AND SETTING

We used data collected on a consistent panel of indicators during four separate cross-sectional, hospital surveys in Kenya to track changes over a period of 11 years (2002-2012).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Basic resource availability, use of diagnostics and uptake of recommended practices.

RESULTS

There appeared little change in availability of a panel of 28 basic resources (median 71% in 2002 to 82% in 2012) although availability of specific feeds for severe malnutrition and vitamin K improved. Use of blood glucose and HIV testing increased but remained inappropriately low throughout. Commonly (malaria) and uncommonly (lumbar puncture) performed diagnostic tests frequently failed to inform practice while pulse oximetry, a simple and cheap technology, was rarely available even in 2012. However, increasing adherence to prescribing guidance occurred during a period from 2006 to 2012 in which efforts were made to disseminate guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest changes in clinical practices possibly linked to dissemination of guidelines at reasonable scale. However, full availability of basic resources was not attained and major gaps likely exist between the potential and actual impacts of simple diagnostics and technologies representing problems with availability, adoption and successful utilisation. These findings are relevant to debates on scaling up in low-income settings and to those developing novel therapeutic or diagnostic interventions.