An evaluation of the effects of lowering blood alcohol concentration limits for drivers on the rates of road traffic accidents and alcohol consumption: a natural experiment

Effectiveness of road safety interventions: An evidence and gap map

Background

Road Traffic injuries (RTI) are among the top ten leading causes of death in the world resulting in 1.35 million deaths every year, about 93% of which occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite several global resolutions to reduce traffic injuries, they have continued to grow in many countries. Many high-income countries have successfully reduced RTI by using a public health approach and implementing evidence-based interventions. As many LMICs develop their highway infrastructure, adopting a similar scientific approach towards road safety is crucial. The evidence also needs to be evaluated to assess external validity because measures that have worked in high-income countries may not translate equally well to other contexts. An evidence gap map for RTI is the first step towards understanding what evidence is available, from where, and the key gaps in knowledge.

Objectives

The objective of this evidence gap map (EGM) is to identify existing evidence from all effectiveness studies and systematic reviews related to road safety interventions. In addition, the EGM identifies gaps in evidence where new primary studies and systematic reviews could add value. This will help direct future research and discussions based on systematic evidence towards the approaches and interventions which are most effective in the road safety sector. This could enable the generation of evidence for informing policy at global, regional or national levels.

Search Methods

The EGM includes systematic reviews and impact evaluations assessing the effect of interventions for RTI reported in academic databases, organization websites, and grey literature sources. The studies were searched up to December 2019.

Selection Criteria

The interventions were divided into five broad categories: (a) human factors (e.g., enforcement or road user education), (b) road design, infrastructure and traffic control, (c) legal and institutional framework, (d) post-crash pre-hospital care, and (e) vehicle factors (except car design for occupant protection) and protective devices. Included studies reported two primary outcomes: fatal crashes and non-fatal injury crashes; and four intermediate outcomes: change in use of seat belts, change in use of helmets, change in speed, and change in alcohol/drug use. Studies were excluded if they did not report injury or fatality as one of the outcomes.

Data Collection and Analysis

The EGM is presented in the form of a matrix with two primary dimensions: interventions (rows) and outcomes (columns). Additional dimensions are country income groups, region, quality level for systematic reviews, type of study design used (e.g., case-control), type of road user studied (e.g., pedestrian, cyclists), age groups, and road type. The EGM is available online where the matrix of interventions and outcomes can be filtered by one or more dimensions. The webpage includes a bibliography of the selected studies and titles and abstracts available for preview. Quality appraisal for systematic reviews was conducted using a critical appraisal tool for systematic reviews, AMSTAR 2.

Main Results

The EGM identified 1859 studies of which 322 were systematic reviews, 7 were protocol studies and 1530 were impact evaluations. Some studies included more than one intervention, outcome, study method, or study region. The studies were distributed among intervention categories as: human factors (n = 771), road design, infrastructure and traffic control (n = 661), legal and institutional framework (n = 424), post-crash pre-hospital care (n = 118) and vehicle factors and protective devices (n = 111). Fatal crashes as outcomes were reported in 1414 records and non-fatal injury crashes in 1252 records. Among the four intermediate outcomes, speed was most commonly reported (n = 298) followed by alcohol (n = 206), use of seatbelts (n = 167), and use of helmets (n = 66). Ninety-six percent of the studies were reported from high-income countries (HIC), 4.5% from upper-middle-income countries, and only 1.4% from lower-middle and low-income countries. There were 25 systematic reviews of high quality, 4 of moderate quality, and 293 of low quality.

Authors' Conclusions

The EGM shows that the distribution of available road safety evidence is skewed across the world. A vast majority of the literature is from HICs. In contrast, only a small fraction of the literature reports on the many LMICs that are fast expanding their road infrastructure, experiencing rapid changes in traffic patterns, and witnessing growth in road injuries. This bias in literature explains why many interventions that are of high importance in the context of LMICs remain poorly studied. Besides, many interventions that have been tested only in HICs may not work equally effectively in LMICs. Another important finding was that a large majority of systematic reviews are of low quality. The scarcity of evidence on many important interventions and lack of good quality evidence-synthesis have significant implications for future road safety research and practice in LMICs. The EGM presented here will help identify priority areas for researchers, while directing practitioners and policy makers towards proven interventions.

Road traffic mortality in Iran: longitudinal trend and seasonal analysis, March 2011-February 2020

Road traffic mortalities (RTMs) and injuries are among the leading causes of human fatalities worldwide, particularly in low-and middle-income countries like Iran. Using an interrupted time series analysis, we investigated three interventional points (two government-mandated fuel price increases and increased traffic ticket fines) for their potential relation to RTMs. Our findings showed that while the overall trend of RTMs was decreasing during the study period, multiple individual provinces showed smaller reductions in RTMs. We also found that both waves of government-mandated fuel price increases coincided with decreases in RTMs. However, the second wave coincided with RTM decreases in a smaller number of provinces than the first wave suggesting that the same type of intervention may not be as effective when repeated. Also, increased traffic ticket fines were only effective in a small number of provinces. Potential reasons and solutions for the findings are discussed in light of Iran's Road Safety Strategic Plan.

Associations between state-level general population alcohol policies and drinking outcomes among women of reproductive age: Results from 1984 to 2020 National Alcohol Surveys

BACKGROUND

Policies specific to alcohol use during pregnancy have not been found to reduce risks related to alcohol use during pregnancy. In contrast, general population alcohol policies are protective for the general population. Here, we assessed whether US state-level general population alcohol policies are related to drinking outcomes among women of reproductive age.

METHODS

We conducted secondary analyses of 1984-2020 National Alcohol Survey data (N = 13,555 women ≤44 years old). State-level policy exposures were government control of liquor retail sales, heavy beer at gas stations, heavy beer at grocery stores, liquor at grocery stores, Sunday off-premise liquor sales, and blood alcohol concentration (BAC) driving limits (no law, 0.10 limit, 0.05-0.08 limit). Outcomes were past 12-month number of drinks, ≥5 drink days, ≥8 drink days, and any DSM-IV alcohol abuse/dependence symptoms. Regressions adjusted for individual and state-level controls, clustering by state, and included fixed effects for survey month and year.

RESULTS

Allowing Sunday off-premise liquor sales versus not was related to having 1.20 times as many drinks (95% CI: 1.01, 1.42), 1.41 times as many ≥5 drink days (95% CI: 1.08, 1.85), and 1.91 times as many ≥8 drink days (95% CI: 1.28, 2.83). BAC limits of 0.05-0.08 for driving versus no BAC limit was related to 0.51 times fewer drinks (95% CI: 0.27, 0.96), 0.28 times fewer days with ≥5 drinks (95% CI: 0.10, 0.75), and 0.20 times fewer days with ≥8 drinks (95% CI: 0.08, 0.47).

CONCLUSIONS

US state-level policies prohibiting Sunday off-premise liquor sales and BAC limits of 0.05-0.08 for driving are related to less past 12-month overall and heavy drinking among women 18-44 years old.

Drinking on an empty stomach: a scoping review of the evidence on how consuming food with alcohol affects short-term outcomes

BACKGROUND

Alcohol is a leading risk factor for death worldwide. Governments issue official guidelines on reducing the short-term risks associated with alcohol as do alcohol industry-funded organizations. Both sources frequently recommend consuming food with alcohol, however, it is unclear what evidence these recommendations are based on. The aim of this scoping review was to map and summarize evidence on the short-term effects of consuming food and alcohol.

METHODS

A scoping review, following PRISMA Extension for Scoping Reviews, searched CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Embase, Medline, PsychINFO and NICE Evidence Search (published inception to June 2021). Studies in English, investigating co-consumption of food and alcohol and reporting short-term health outcomes or acute effects, were included.

RESULTS

Of the 15 246 studies identified, 10 met the inclusion criteria. There was little evidence on the effects of food co-consumption on most short-term alcohol-related outcomes. Included studies were low in quality and inconsistent in their reported outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a weak and inconsistent evidence base, food co-consumption is often recommended by both official guidance and alcohol industry-funded sources. Food co-consumption as a harm reduction measure, while plausible, requires a stronger evidence base and more nuanced messaging due to the risk of encouraging heavier, sustained drinking.

China Promotes Sanming's Model: A National Template for Integrated Medicare Payment Methods

Introduction

China is promoting integrated care. However, incomplete payment methods led to medical insurance overspending and intensified service fragmentation. Sanming implemented Integrated Medicare Payment Methods (IMPM) in October 2017, which integrates multi-level payment policies. Sanming's IMPM works well and has been promoted by the Chinese government. Therefore, in this paper, we aim to systematically analyze Sanming's IMPM, and conduct preliminary evaluations of Sanming's IMPM.

Policy Description

IMPM integrates two levels of policy that are implemented simultaneously: (1) The payment policy for healthcare providers refers to how to calculate the global budget (GB) of the medical insurance fund paid to the healthcare providers and the policy guidance for the healthcare providers on how to use GB. (2) The payment policy for medical personnel refers to the adjustment of the evaluation index of the annual salary system (ASS) according to the IMPM's purpose and the payment policy that adjust pay levels based on performance.

Discussion and lessons learned

After the IMPM reform, county hospitals (CHs) may reduce over-providing dispensable healthcare, and cooperation between hospitals may increase. The policy guidance (Determining GB according to population; Medical insurance balance can be used for doctors' salary, cooperation between hospitals, and promotion of residents' health; Adjusting ASS assessment indicators according to IMPM purposes) increases CHs' motivation to promote balances of medical insurance fund by cooperating with primary healthcare and increasing health promotion actions.

Conclusion

As a model promoted by the Chinese government, the specific policies of Sanming's IMPM are better matched with policy goals, which may be more conducive to promoting medical and health service providers to pay more attention to cooperation among medical institutions and population health.

Scotland's alcohol crisis: A clinician's perspective on a public health emergency

Worldwide, alcohol causes a death every 10 seconds. The harmful effects are much wider in terms of impaired health and wellbeing of those affected and their families, particularly the most disadvantaged. The wider societal impact and financial costs are huge. Scotland, which has a particularly unhealthy relationship with alcohol and where the cost of alcohol harm is estimated at £3.6 billion, has introduced innovative public health measures such as minimum unit pricing (MUP). However, the COVID-19 pandemic has seen the death toll rising. This article examines the history of alcohol harm and policy interventions in Scotland in recent decades. The lessons learned provide a range of measures of proven efficacy that clinicians and government should employ to tackle Scotland's on-going alcohol crisis, and should be of interest to clinicians and policy makers everywhere.

A new alcohol-related traffic law, a further reduction in traffic fatalities? Analyzing the case of Turkey

BACKGROUND

In June 2013, an alcohol-related traffic law took effect in Turkey. The law 6487 introduced administrative fines for not respecting blood alcohol concentration limits, health warning messages on alcohol containers (bottles, cans), and prohibited the sale of alcohol beverages in retail facilities between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m.. This article examines how this law is associated with traffic fatality variation.

METHODS

Data from the Turkish Statistical Institute for the 2008-2019 period were analyzed. Outcomes were traffic fatality rates per 100,000 population and 10,000 motor vehicles. Exposure variable was the presence of law 6487. Alcohol, tobacco, and related beverages' household expenditure, unemployment rate, number of health professionals, number of crashes, and lags of the outcomes represented control variables. A time-series cross-regional fixed effect model was applied.

RESULTS

Empirical estimates suggest that the law 6487 was associated with a reduction of 15% (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 0.85, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 082, 0.94) in the traffic fatality per population rate and with a reduction of 14% (IRR: 0.86 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.92) in the traffic fatality per motor-vehicle rate. After 6 years of its implementation, this intervention was associated with an absolute reduction of 1519 (95% reduction interval: 1177, 1810) traffic fatalities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research emphasizes that legislation with direct and indirect measures targeting driving under the influence of alcohol (DUIA) may be related to traffic fatalities reduction.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

This finding has important implications for policy and future research in contexts in which alcohol consumption is low such is in Turkey. Future research should seek to identify mechanisms that explain how laws are ultimately associated with DUIA variation.

The Response of Different-Levels Public Hospitals to Regional Global Budget with a Floating Payment System: Evidence from China

BACKGROUND

Regional Global Budget with a Floating Payment System (RGB-FPS) is a global budget widely used in medical insurance payments. However, existing studies on hospitals' responses to RGB-FPS have limitations. First, existing studies have paid little attention to RGB-FPS's macro effects. Theoretical studies did not analyze differences between different levels of hospitals. Secondly, studies did not reveal whether RGB-FPS has the same impact on the public-hospital-dominated market.

METHODS

First, we refine the research hypotheses through theoretical analysis. We then test the hypotheses empirically through interrupted time series analysis.

RESULTS

Theoretical analysis found that small hospitals were easier to transfer costs. The empirical analysis found that after RGB-FPS, the proportion of inpatients (PI)and the average times of inpatients in large hospitals increased (p < 0.001), and the proportion of non-reimbursable expenses (PNE) remained stable (p > 0.05). PI in secondary hospitals decreased (p < 0.01), and PNE increased (p < 0.01). PI in the primary hospital decreased (p < 0.05), and PNE increased (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

This study verifies theoretically and empirically that large hospitals are easier to increase service volume and small hospitals are easier to transfer costs under the influence of RGB-FPS. Chinese public hospitals' response to RGB-FPS is similar to that of private hospitals.

The impact of road safety policies in a deregulated alcohol tax environment in Hong Kong: a 15-year time series analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hong Kong reduced beer and wine tax in 2007, eliminated taxes on beer and wine and strengthened drink-driving legislation in 2008, and increased police traffic enforcement after the 2014 social unrest. This study aimed to measure the effects of implementing road safety policies on road traffic harm in the context of deregulated alcohol control policy in Hong Kong.

DESIGN

Population-based interrupted time series analysis using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sARIMA) models. Multiple sensitivity analyses were conducted.

SETTING

Hong Kong, China and Singapore from January 2004 to December 2019.

CASES

A total of 313 728 road traffic injuries in Hong Kong and 163 773 road traffic injuries in Singapore as controls.

MEASUREMENTS

Monthly rates of road traffic injuries, non-fatal injuries and serious/fatal injuries from Hong Kong and Singapore Police Force.

FINDINGS

The elimination of alcohol taxes and the enactment of road safety legislation in 2008 were associated with immediate reductions in total road traffic injuries of 6.71% (95% CI, 1.99%-11.20%), serious/fatal injuries of 13.80% (95% CI, 1.85%-24.30%) and sustained declines in drink-driving and collisions involving drink-driving. The effects of the 2007 tax reduction were inconclusive. Progressively increasing traffic enforcement was associated with continuous reductions in road traffic injuries by 0.21% per month (95% CI, 0.13%-0.30%), and serious/fatal injuries by 1.10% per month (95% CI, 0.85%-1.35%). Effects at the corresponding timepoints in Singapore did not reach statistical significance; the results were inconclusive regarding confounding effects on both regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite weakened alcohol control and increased alcohol sales over the same period, road safety policies in Hong Kong are associated with net reductions in road traffic injuries, particularly serious/fatal injuries.

Association of the new zero-tolerance drinking and driving law with hospitalization rate due to road traffic injuries in Brazil

We investigated the association of the new zero-tolerance drinking and driving law (Law 12,760, Dec. 2012) with hospital admissions due to road traffic injuries in Brazil by using interrupted time series from 2008 to 2019. We used linear regression designed to adjust for autocorrelation and Cumby–Huizinga test for residual autocorrelation. Newey–West standard errors was used to handle heteroscedasticity. We used ICD-10 codes for land transport accidents (V01–V89). The hospitalization rate was calculated per 100,000 inhabitants. The sources were the Hospital Information System and the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics. Pre- and postintervention consist of 59 and 85 months, respectively. For Brazil, the hospitalization rate was associated with a reduction of 0.34 (p = 0.097; 95% CI − 0.74 to 0.06) in the first month of the intervention (Dec. 2012), followed by a significant change in the hospitalization trend. Compared to the period prior to the intervention, the monthly trend was associated with a reduction of 0.05 (p < 0.01; 95% CI − 0.06 to − 0.04) in the post period. These results stand in agreement with subgroup analyses for the Brazilian regions, although North and Northeast regions did not immediately reduce hospitalization rates (level change). Our results suggested that 440,599 hospitalizations for land transport accidents would be averted by the new zero-tolerance drinking and driving law from Dec. 2012 to Dec. 2019 in Brazil. Even using a quasi-experimental approach, our findings must be interpreted with caution due to observational design and registration flaws surrounding our data.

Lowering the legal alcohol limit in Belgium: Potential effects on the number of traffic victims

BACKGROUND

Since 1994, the legal limit of Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) is 0.5 g/L for the general drivers' population in Belgium. Since 2015, this limit has been lowered to 0.2 g/L for professional drivers. So far, no specific limitation has been adopted for novice drivers in Belgium. Recently, two bills were submitted to the House of Representatives: the first one proposed to impose a zero-limit for every driver, the second one proposed to restrict this zero-limit only to novice drivers.

OBJECTIVE

The present study evaluated the potential impact of the two bills that aim to reduce the legal BAC limit from 0.5 to zero, either for all drivers or for novice drivers only. We elaborated three scenarios related to the BAC categories for which lowering the legal BAC limit to zero would affect drink-driving behaviour: "Targeted BAC levels" scenario assumed that the new policy would impact only the specifically targeted BAC category, i.e., drivers in the category BAC below 0.5 g/L. "Extended impact" scenario corresponded to the "Targeted BAC levels" scenario to which we added a "halo effect" on drivers in the BAC category "0.5 g/L ≤ BAC < 0.8 g/L". "Broad range impact" scenario corresponded to the "Extended impact" scenario to where we extended the "halo effect" to drivers in the BAC category "0.8 g/L ≤ BAC < 1.2 g/L".

METHODS

The effect estimates were based on firstly, scientific literature on risks related to drink-driving at different BAC-levels, secondly data on crashes in Belgium and thirdly data on drink-driving behaviour in Belgium and in other European countries.

RESULTS

In case of a zero limit for all drivers, an annual reduction can be expected of 10 to 17 fatalities (i.e., a decrease of 2.4% to 3.9%), 8 to 20 severe injuries (i.e., a decrease of 0.3% to 0.8%) and 135 to 315 slight injuries (i.e., a decrease of 0.4% to 0.8%). In case a zero limit is only applied to novice drivers, an annual decrease can be expected by 2 to 4 fatalities (i.e., a decline of 3.7% to 6.2%), 8 to 16 serious injuries and 135 to 262 slight injuries (i.e., a decline of 1.7% to 3.2% in both cases).

DISCUSSION

There is no clear evidence on which of the three scenarios would be the most plausible. As the relative risk of a car crash increases strongly with the BAC level, the success of either measure will strongly depend on its ability to also affect drink driving at concentrations that are forbidden already. This also means that most of the casualties could be prevented if compliance with current rules increased.

The Influence of Personality and Demographic Characteristics on Aggressive Driving Behaviors in Eastern Chinese Drivers

Purpose

Road safety research is important due to the large number of road traffic fatalities globally. This study investigated the influences of age, driving experience and other covariates on aggressive driving behavior.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Yixing City, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, China. Regression analysis was applied to explore the influences of age and driving experience and their interactions with other covariates on aggressive driving behavior. Two analyses methodologies were used to assess the simple effect of the interactions. Firstly, the Jamovi automatic analysis classification program was used to calculate the simple slope test. Second, the SPSS macro program was also used to calculate the simple slope test also.

Results

A total of 570 drivers (247 males, 282 females) participated in the survey. A negative correlation was found between age and aggressive driving behaviors, and a positive correlation was found between neuroticism and aggressive driving behaviors in the multiple regression analysis. Significant associations were also found between age, driving experience, and depression, as well as age, driving experience, and neuroticism. Simple slope tests showed that depressive symptoms could increase aggressive behaviors in the elderly and experienced drivers. When experiencing neuroticism, individuals with higher driving experience were more aggressive in driving than shorter experienced drivers.

Conclusion

Age and neuroticism influenced aggressive driving behaviors. Veteran drivers could be aggressive drivers when experiencing depressive symptoms or neuroticism. Mobile intervention could be sent to the potentially risky drivers, which would be safe and broadly feasible to prevent aggressive driving behavior in the background of COVID-19.

Effects of stricter drunk-driving laws on alcohol-related road traffic death, injury, and crash rates in South Korea: A synthetic counterfactual approach using Bayesian structural time-series models

In December 2018, new drunk-driving laws were enacted in Korea to impose stricter penalties and standards for driving under the influence of alcohol. This study aimed to estimate the effects of stricter drunk-driving laws on alcohol-related road traffic death, injury, and crash rates in Korea. Using police-reported traffic accident data and registered vehicle data from 2013 to 2020, monthly road traffic outcome rates were calculated: the response series involved alcohol-related rates and the non-equivalent control series involved total and non-alcohol-related rates. Based on a controlled interrupted time-series design using Bayesian structural time-series models, effects of the laws on alcohol-related road traffic outcome rates were evaluated. After implementation of these laws, the alcohol-related road traffic crash rate decreased by 14.3% (95% credible interval [CrI] -26.8% to -1.9%), alcohol-related road traffic injury rate by 17.6% (95% CrI -31.6% to -3.8%), and alcohol-related minor road traffic injury rate by 20.2% (95% CrI -32.4% to -7.7%). Alcohol-related road traffic death and severe injury rates also decreased more than the declining trends in the pre-period, but reduced non-significantly by 15.0% (95% CrI -47.2% to 17.3%) and 9.9% (95% CrI -33.9% to 14.5%), respectively. The mixed effectiveness of Korea's new drunk-driving laws on alcohol-related road traffic outcomes suggests that additional strategies are necessary to consistently and effectively reduce alcohol-related road traffic outcomes. More research is needed on ways to enhance the effectiveness of drunk-driving laws.

Time-varying effect of drunk driving regulations on road traffic mortality in Guangzhou, China: an interrupted time-series analysis

Background

China has introduced a series of stricter policies to criminalize drunk driving and increase penalties since May 2011. However, there is no previous study examining the time-varying impacts of drunk driving regulations on road traffic fatalities based on daily data.

Methods

We collected 6536 individual data of road traffic deaths (RTDs) in Guangzhou from 2008 to 2018. The quasi-Poisson regression models with an inclusion of the intervention variable and the interaction of intervention variable and a function of time were used to quantify the time-varying effects of these regulations.

Results

During the 11-year study period, the number of population and motor vehicles showed a steady upward trend. However, the population- and motor vehicles- standardized RTDs rose steadily before May 2011, the criminalizing drunk driving intervention was implemented and gradually declined after that. The new drunk driving intervention were associated with an average risk reduction of RTDs (ER = -9.01, 95% eCI: − 10.05% to − 7.62%) during the 7.7 years after May 2011. On average, 75.82 (95% eCI, 54.06 to 92.04) RTDs per 1 million population annually were prevented due to the drunk driving intervention.

Conclusion

These findings would provide important implications for the development of integrated intervention measures in China and other countries attempting to reduce traffic fatalities by stricter regulations on drunk driving.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11958-4.

The Revolution Will Be Hard to Evaluate: How Co-Occurring Policy Changes Affect Research on the Health Effects of Social Policies

Extensive empirical health research leverages variation in the timing and location of policy changes as quasi-experiments. Multiple social policies may be adopted simultaneously in the same locations, creating co-occurrence that must be addressed analytically for valid inferences. The pervasiveness and consequences of co-occurring policies have received limited attention. We analyzed a systematic sample of 13 social policy databases covering diverse domains including poverty, paid family leave, and tobacco use. We quantified policy co-occurrence in each database as the fraction of variation in each policy measure across different jurisdictions and times that could be explained by covariation with other policies. We used simulations to estimate the ratio of the variance of effect estimates under the observed policy co-occurrence to variance if policies were independent. Policy co-occurrence ranged from very high for state-level cannabis policies to low for country-level sexual minority-rights policies. For 65% of policies, greater than 90% of the place-time variation was explained by other policies. Policy co-occurrence increased the variance of effect estimates by a median of 57-fold. Co-occurring policies are common and pose a major methodological challenge to rigorously evaluating health effects of individual social policies. When uncontrolled, co-occurring policies confound one another, and when controlled, resulting positivity violations may substantially inflate the variance of estimated effects. Tools to enhance validity and precision for evaluating co-occurring policies are needed.

Revised road traffic safety law and years of life lost due to traffic deaths in China, 2002-2019

Legal intervention is a powerful tool to reduce road traffic injuries (RTIs). China amended the Road Traffic Safety Law in 2011, but the impact of amended law on traffic crash deaths is still unknown. In this study, we conducted an interrupted time series analysis and examined years of life lost (YLLs) per 100,000 population as the assessment indicator to evaluate the association of road traffic safety law and traffic crash mortality. Annual YLLs data due to traffic deaths from 2002 to 2019 in China were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. After implementation of the revised law, the average level of total YLLs per 100,000 population due to traffic deaths decreased from 1133.14 to 848.87, and the slope of annual YLLs per 100,000 population decreased by 30.11 (95% CI: 22.46, 37.75), indicating a steeper downward trend. The revised traffic law was associated with YLLs reduction due to traffic deaths for males, females, all age groups, pedestrians, motor vehicle users, and other road users, as well as traffic deaths attributed to alcohol use and tobacco use. These findings suggested that the revised Road Traffic Safety Law improved road safety by decreasing YLLs due to traffic deaths in China. However, the burden of RTIs is still heavy and efforts to further improve traffic laws and the adoption of other interventions are urgently needed.

None for the Road? Stricter Drink Driving Laws and Road Accidents

Reducing drink drive limits is generally regarded an effective strategy to save lives on the road. Using several new administrative data sources, we evaluate the effect of a stricter limit introduced in Scotland in 2014. This reduction had no effect on drink driving and road collisions. Estimates from a supply-of-offenses function suggests that the reform did not have much ex-ante scope for sizeable effects. The unavailability of cheaper alternative means of transportation and weak law enforcement seem to have been the main channels behind the lack of an impact. We find no externality on a wide range of domains, from alcohol consumption to criminal activities other than drink driving.

Did "Conduce Sin Alcohol" a Program that Monitors Breath Alcohol Concentration Limits for Driving in Mexico City Have an Effect on Traffic-Related Deaths?

In September 2003, Mexico City introduced "Conduce sin Alcohol" (CSA)-drive without alcohol-a program that monitors breath alcohol concentration limits among drivers to reduce road traffic crashes. To our knowledge, no study has evaluated the impact of this program on mortality. We estimated the effect of CSA on the monthly rate of traffic-related deaths (deaths per one million people) in Mexico City. We applied interrupted time series analyses (ITSA) using monthly data from 1998 to 2016, adjusting for number of people covered by a public health insurance, monthly number of public health care facilities in the city, monthly average rain precipitation in milliliters, and number of vehicles registered. Our results show a statistically significant average reduction in the monthly trend of traffic-related deaths of 0.08 per 1 million people/per month after the program was implemented relative to the pre-intervention trend. The relative difference comparing pre- and post-intervention predicted values from the ITSA model shows that there was a 23.2% reduction in the fatality rate. Findings from this study can be used to scale up programs to monitor alcohol concentration limits among drivers in cities with high alcohol-related crashes and deaths where the program has not been implemented.

What to Do When Everything Happens at Once: Analytic Approaches to Estimate the Health Effects of Co-Occurring Social Policies

Social policies have great potential to improve population health and reduce health disparities. Increasingly, those doing empirical research have sought to quantify the health effects of social policies by exploiting variation in the timing of policy changes across places. Multiple social policies are often adopted simultaneously or in close succession in the same locations, creating co-occurrence that must be handled analytically for valid inferences. Although this is a substantial methodological challenge for researchers aiming to isolate social policy effects, only in a limited number of studies have researchers systematically considered analytic solutions within a causal framework or assessed whether these solutions are being adopted. We designated 7 analytic solutions to policy co-occurrence, including efforts to disentangle individual policy effects and efforts to estimate the combined effects of co-occurring policies. We used an existing systematic review of social policies and health to evaluate how often policy co-occurrence is identified as a threat to validity and how often each analytic solution is applied in practice. Of the 55 studies, only in 17 (31%) did authors report checking for any co-occurring policies, although in 36 studies (67%), at least 1 approach was used that helps address policy co-occurrence. The most common approaches were adjusting for measures of co-occurring policies; defining the outcome on subpopulations likely to be affected by the policy of interest (but not other co-occurring policies); and selecting a less-correlated measure of policy exposure. As health research increasingly focuses on policy changes, we must systematically assess policy co-occurrence and apply analytic solutions to strengthen studies on the health effects of social policies.

Assessment of the impact of implementation of a zero blood alcohol concentration law in Uruguay on moderate/severe injury and fatal crashes: a quasi-experimental study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Debates regarding lowering the blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit for drivers are intensifying in the United States and other countries, and the World Health Organization recommends that the limit for adults should be 0.05%. In January 2016, Uruguay implemented a law setting a zero BAC limit for all drivers. This study aimed to assess the effect of this policy on the frequency of moderate/severe injury and fatal traffic crashes.

DESIGN

A quasi-experimental study in which a synthetic control model was used with controls consisting of local areas in Chile as the counterfactual for outcomes in Uruguay, matched across population counts and pre-intervention period outcomes. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted.

SETTING

Uruguay and Chile.

CASES

Panel data with crash counts by outcome per locality-month (2013-2017).

INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR

A zero blood alcohol concentration law implemented on 9 January 2016 in Uruguay, alongside a continued 0.03 g/dl BAC threshold in Chile.

MEASUREMENTS

Per-capita moderate/severe injury (i.e. moderate or severe), severe injury and fatal crashes (2013-2017).

FINDINGS

Our base synthetic control model results suggested a reduction in fatal crashes at 12 months [20.9%; P-value = 0.018, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.340, -0.061]. Moderate/severe injury crashes did not decrease significantly (10.2%, P = 0.312, 95% CI = -0.282, 0.075). The estimated effect at 24 months was smaller and with larger confidence intervals for fatal crashes (14%; P = 0.048, 95% CI = -0.246, -0.026) and largely unchanged for moderate/severe injury crashes (-9.4%, P = 0.302, 95% CI = -0.248, 0.058). Difference-in-differences analyses yielded similar results. As a sensitivity test, a synthetic control model relying on an inferior treatment-control match pre-intervention (measured by mean squared error) yielded similar-sized differences that were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of a law setting a zero blood alcohol concentration threshold for all drivers in Uruguay appears to have resulted in a reduction in fatal crashes during the following 12 and 24 months.

Gender differences in driving control of young alcohol-impaired drivers

BACKGROUND

Male and female drivers exhibit different degrees of vehicle control while driving under the influence of alcohol. However, this interaction between alcohol and gender is understudied. The present study examined the effects of different alcohol levels on the driving control of male and female drivers with the help of driving simulator experiments in heterogeneous traffic conditions.

METHOD

Forty young drivers (20 males and 20 females) completed simulated driving at four Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) levels: 0% (control), 0.03%, 0.05% and 0.08%. Driving impairment in vehicle control was measured in terms of average speed, acceleration variability and reaction time of drivers. Repeated-measures ANOVA tests were conducted and regression models were developed for male and female drivers to quantify the effects of BAC levels and driver characteristics on the driving control measures.

RESULTS

Significant effects of gender were observed for average speed (p <  0.001) and acceleration variability (p = 0.015) but not for reaction time of drivers (p =  0.891). Further, the effect of BAC was significant in all the three measures of vehicle control (p <  0.001). Driving control improved with increasing age of male drivers while caffeine consumption was observed as an alcohol-antagonizing factor in female drivers.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that vehicle control of female drivers is more likely to get affected even at low BAC levels, providing evidence that they belong to critical section of driving community in terms of alcohol-related impairment. The findings may help in discouraging drinking and driving among male and female drivers.

Do Election Laws Restricting Public Road Publicity Reduce Road Traffic Crashes and Their Consequences?

BACKGROUND

In April 2016, Chile enacted the Law 20,900, which restricted electoral publicity on public roads. It established two important regulations: first, candidates were allowed, 30 days before any election, to publicize their campaigns in specific street locations. Second, roadside publicity must follow strict size standards to avoid visual contamination. This article examines the impact of this regulation in reducing road traffic crashes.

METHODS

We obtained a number of traffic injuries and fatalities per population from public records. A time-series difference-in-difference study, using generalized linear models with an interaction between time-period and intervention, compared a municipal election period before the introduction of Law 20,900 (2012) to the first municipal election affected by the law (2016). We adjusted for precipitation and temperature, and applied models to three cities: Santiago, Gran-Valparaíso, and Concepción. We assessed the overall impact of the intervention using random effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

The law was associated with a decrease of 0.01 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.02, -0.00) in Santiago, a decrease of 0.01 (95% CI: -0.03, -0.00) in Valparaíso and an increase of 0.09 (95% CI: 0.06, 0.13) in Concepción, in all daily injuries and fatalities per 100,000 population. After 40 days of its implementation, the intervention was associated with a mild absolute reduction of 34 (95% reduction interval: -270, 67) traffic injuries and fatalities.

CONCLUSIONS

This study estimates that the regulation of public road publicity had an overall mild effect on reducing traffic injuries and fatalities in three large cities in Chile.

How did a lower drink-drive limit affect bar trade and drinking practices? A qualitative study of how alcohol retailers experienced a change in policy

Introduction and Aims

Reducing the legal drink‐drive limit from 0.08% to 0.05% blood alcohol concentration (BAC) can reduce road traffic accidents and deaths if properly enforced. Reduced limits may be opposed by alcohol retail and manufacturing industries on the basis of commercial impact. Our aim was to qualitatively explore how a reduction in the drink‐drive limit from 0.08% to 0.05% BAC in Scotland, was experienced by bar owners or managers, including any resultant changes in customer drinking or business practice. This is the first study of this type.

Design and Methods

Semi‐structured interviews were conducted with 16 owners and managers of on‐trade premises in Scotland in 2018, approximately three years after the drink‐drive limit was reduced. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.

Results

Most participants reported no long‐term financial impact on their business, but a few, mainly from rural areas, reported some reduction in alcohol sales. Observed drinking changes included fewer people drinking after work or leaving premises earlier on weekdays. Adaptations to businesses included improving the range of no/low‐alcohol drinks and food offered. Changes such as these were seen as key to minimising economic impact.

Discussion and Conclusions

Opposition to legislative measures that impact on commercial interests is often strong and receives significant public attention. This study found that Scottish businesses that adapted to the drink‐drive limit change reported little long‐term economic impact. These findings are of international relevance as potential BAC limit reductions in several other jurisdictions remain the subject of debate, including regarding the impact on business.