Vaccines work: a reason for celebration and renewed commitment

Modeling the impact of vaccination for the immunization Agenda 2030: Deaths averted due to vaccination against 14 pathogens in 194 countries from 2021 to 2030

BACKGROUND

The Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030) Impact Goal 1.1. aims to reduce the number of future deaths averted through immunization in the next decade. To estimate the potential impact of the aspirational coverage targets for IA2030, we developed an analytical framework and estimated the number of deaths averted due to an ambitious vaccination coverage scenario from 2021 to 2030 in 194 countries.

METHOD

A demographic model was used to determine annual age-specific mortality estimates associated with vaccine coverage rates. For ten pathogens (Hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever), we derived single measures of country-, age-, and pathogen-specific relative risk of deaths conditional upon coverage rates, leveraging the data from 18 modeling groups as part of the Vaccine Impact Model Consortium (VIMC) for 110 countries. We used a logistic regression model to extrapolate the relative risk estimates to countries that were not modeled by VIMC. For four pathogens (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis and tuberculosis), we used estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study and existing literature on vaccine efficacy. A future scenario defining years of vaccine introduction and scale-up needed to reach aspirational targets was developed as an input to estimate the long-term impact of vaccination taking place from 2021 to 2030.

FINDINGS

Overall, an estimated 51.5 million (95 % CI: 44.0-63.2) deaths are expected to be averted due to vaccinations administered between the years 2021 and 2030. With immunization coverage projected to increase over 2021-2030 an average of 5.2 million per year (4.4-6.3) deaths will be averted annually, with 4.4 million (3.9-5.1) deaths be averted for the year 2021, gradually rising to 5.8 million (4.9-7.5) deaths averted in 2030. The largest proportion of deaths is attributed to Measles and Hepatitis B accounting for 18.8 million (17.8-20.0) and 14.0 million (11.5-16.9) of total deaths averted respectively.

INTERPRETATION

The results from this global analysis demonstrate the substantial potential mortality reductions achievable if the IA2030 targets are met by 2030. Deaths caused by vaccine preventable diseases disproportionately affect LMICs in the African region.

Hospital costs of immunopreventable diseases in the economically active population in Brazil

Background

Immunopreventable diseases are a public health reality in Brazil and worldwide, a reality that is not exclusive to children, but affects the adult population.

Objectives

Discriminating the total costs of hospitalizations from immunopreventable diseases in the population aged 20 to 59 years.

Methods

A population, observational, descriptive, retrospective study was conducted with secondary information from DATASUS to discriminate the hospitalizations associated with immunopreventable diseases in Brazil and their care costs, within the Scope of the SUS, between 2008 and 2018, in the economically active population (20 to 59 years).

Results

It was analyzed 127,746 hospitalizations for immunopreventable diseases, (27.92% of all hospitalizations) were observed in the adult population, totaled R$115,682,097.54 (29.72% of the total costs). Of this population studied, 51.48% were registered as male; 66.74% were associated with influenza disease; 16.05% to chickenpox/herpes zoster infection and 7.55% to acute hepatitis B infections. The trend analysis of the time series of hospitalizations in this population showed a stationary trend.

Conclusions

The 127,746 hospitalizations could be avoided with immunization, and 127,746 workers who could be working and not hospitalized. There were also R$115,682,097.54 that could be invested in other public health needs, which became necessary for the treatment of preventable diseases.

The World of Immunization: Achievements, Challenges, and Strategic Vision for the Next Decade

Immunization is among the most cost-effective public health interventions available and is estimated to have averted at least 37 million deaths between 2000 and 2019. Since the establishment of the Expanded Programme on Immunization in 1974, global vaccination coverage increased and the coverage gap between rich and poor countries decreased. Creation of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, in 2000 allowed the poorest countries in the world to benefit from new, life-saving vaccines and expand the breadth of protection against an increasing number of vaccine-preventable diseases. Despite this progress, inequities in access to and uptake of vaccines persist. Opportunities to realize the full potential of vaccines are within reach but require focused, tailored and committed action by Governments and immunization stakeholders. The Immunization Agenda 2030 provides a framework for action during the next decade to attain a world where everyone, everywhere, at every age fully benefits from vaccines for good health and well-being.