Scaling-up an autoregressive time-series model (of spruce budworm population dynamics) changes its qualitative behavior

Density Dependence of Egg Recruitment and Moth Dispersal in Spruce Budworms

Egg recruitment quantifies the relative importance of realized fecundity and migration rates in the population dynamics of highly mobile insects. We develop here a formal context upon which to base the measurement and interpretation of egg recruitment in population dynamics of eastern and western spruce budworms, two geographically separated species that share a very similar ecology. Under most circumstances, per capita egg recruitment rates in these budworms are higher in low-density populations and lower in high-density populations, relative to the regional mean: Low-density populations are nearly always migration sinks for gravid moths, and dense populations nearly always sources. The slope of this relationship, measured on a log scale, is negatively correlated with migration rate, and ranges between 0 and −1. The steeper the slope, the more marked net migration. Using our western spruce budworm observations, we found strong evidence of density-dependent emigration in budworms, so migration is not simply a random perturbation in the lagged, density-dependent stochastic process leading to budworm outbreaks. It is itself statistically and biologically density-dependent. Therefore, moth migration is a synchronizing factor and a spread mechanism that is essential to understanding the development and expansion of spruce budworm outbreaks at regional scales in the boreal forests of North America.

Paradigms in Eastern Spruce Budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Population Ecology: A Century of Debate

Three main hypotheses have been postulated over the past century to explain the outbreaking population dynamics of eastern spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens). The Silviculture Hypothesis first arose in the 1920s, with the idea that outbreaks were driven by forestry practices favoring susceptible softwood species. In the 1960s, it was proposed that populations were governed by Multiple Equilibria, with warm weather conditions releasing low-density populations from the regulatory control of natural enemies. Dispersal from outbreak foci, or "epicenters," was seen as causing widespread outbreaks that eventually collapsed following resource depletion. However, in the 1980s, following the re-analysis of data from the 1940s outbreak in New Brunswick, this interpretation was challenged. The alternative Oscillatory Hypothesis proposed that budworm population dynamics were governed by a second-order density-dependent process, with oscillations being driven by natural enemy-victim interactions. Under this hypothesis, weather and resource availability contribute to secondary fluctuations around the main oscillation, and weather and moth dispersal serve to synchronize population cycles regionally. Intensive, independent population studies during the peak and declining phases of the 1980s outbreak supported the principal tenet of the Oscillatory Hypothesis, but concluded that host plant quality played a more important role than this hypothesis proposed. More recent research on the early phase of spruce budworm cycles suggests that mate-finding and natural-enemy-driven Allee effects in low-density populations might be overcome by immigration of moths, which can facilitate the onset of outbreaks. Even more recent research has supported components of all three hypotheses attempting to explain spruce budworm dynamics. In the midst of a new rising outbreak (2006-present), we discuss the evolution of debates surrounding these hypotheses from a historic perspective, examine gaps in current knowledge, and suggest avenues for future research (e.g., intensive studies on low-density populations) to better understand and manage spruce budworm populations.

Europe-wide dampening of population cycles in keystone herbivores

Suggestions of collapse in small herbivore cycles since the 1980s have raised concerns about the loss of essential ecosystem functions. Whether such phenomena are general and result from extrinsic environmental changes or from intrinsic process stochasticity is currently unknown. Using a large compilation of time series of vole abundances, we demonstrate consistent cycle amplitude dampening associated with a reduction in winter population growth, although regulatory processes responsible for cyclicity have not been lost. The underlying syndrome of change throughout Europe and grass-eating vole species suggests a common climatic driver. Increasing intervals of low-amplitude small herbivore population fluctuations are expected in the future, and these may have cascading impacts on trophic webs across ecosystems.