Mathematical modelling and the control of lymphatic filariasis

Factors associated with never treatment and acceptability of mass drug administration for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis in Guyana, 2021

Guyana remains one of four countries in the Americas endemic for lymphatic filariasis (LF). Elimination of LF requires repeated annual mass drug administration (MDA) with sufficient levels of coverage for success. This study assesses the acceptability and never treatment of LF MDA using data from a routine assessment survey in 2021. A subset of individuals, over 20 years of age (n = 2498), were selected to receive an expanded questionnaire to examine factors associated with acceptability and never treatment. Assessed factors include respondent demographics, knowledge, risk perceptions of LF, and opinions on the MDA programme. The majority (73%) of those with scores above the acceptability threshold (score ≥22.5) reported participating in MDA two or more times. Factors strongly and positively associated with scoring above the acceptability threshold include beliefs in importance of participation in MDA for their community (aOR = 2.8, 95%CI (1.1-7.2)), perception of importance of LF treatment (6.9 (3.2-14.7)), receiving treatment in 2021 (2.9 (1.5-5.4)), and the number of self-reported times taking treatment for LF (2.2 (1.1-4.4)). Ten percent of respondents participated in the MDA for the first time in 2021, while 15% reported never treatment during any round of LF MDA. Three factors were statistically associated with participation in MDA across the two levels of the models (level 1: took LF treatment once versus never, and level 2: took LF treatment twice versus never) included: 1) scoring above the acceptability threshold (aOR = 6.2, 95%CI(3.8-10.0)), 2) self-reported importance of participation in MDA for their community (7.1 (2.9-17.8)), and 3) personal beliefs that they should take LF treatment even if they are not sick (2.6 (1.7-3.9)). As Guyana moves closer to LF elimination, these results provide further insight and understanding into programmatic results and could inform further action following MDA activities-particularly if an approach is needed to address never treatment during MDA.

Assessment of microfilaremia in 'hotspots' of four lymphatic filariasis endemic districts of Nepal during post-MDA surveillance

BACKGROUND

The lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination program in all sixty-three endemic districts of Nepal was based on annual mass drug administration (MDA) using a combination of diethylcarbamazine (DEC) and albendazole for at least 5 years. The MDA program was started in the Parsa district of the Terai region and at least six rounds of MDA were completed between 2003 and 2017 in all filariasis endemic districts of Central Nepal. Transmission Assessment Survey (TAS) report indicated that circulating filarial antigen (CFA) prevalence was below the critical value i.e., ≤ 2% in selected LF endemic districts of Central Nepal. Based on the TAS report, antigen-positive cases were found clustered in the foci of those districts which were considered as "hotspots". Hence the present study was designed to assess microfilaremia in hotspots of four endemic districts of Central Nepal after the MDA program.

METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The present study assessed microfilaremia in hotspots of four endemic districts i.e. Lalitpur and Dhading from the hilly region and Bara and Mahottari from the Terai region of Central Nepal. Night blood samples (n = 1722) were collected by finger prick method from the eligible sample population irrespective of age and sex. Community people's participation in the MDA program was ensured using a structured questionnaire and chronic clinical manifestation of LF was assessed using standard case definition. Two districts one each from the hilly region (Lalitpur district) and Terai region (Bara district) showed improved microfilaria (MF) prevalence i.e. below the critical level (<1%) while the other two districts are still over the critical level. There was a significantly high prevalence of MF in male (p = <0.05) and ≥41 years of age group (p = <0.05) community people in the hotspots of four endemic districts. People who participated in the previous rounds of the MDA program have significantly low MF prevalence. The upper confidence limit of MF prevalence in all hotspots of four districts was above the critical level (>1%). Chronic clinical manifestation of LF showed significant association with the older age group (≥41 years) but not with sex.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed LF transmission improved in hotspots of two districts while continued in others but the risk of LF resurgence cannot be ignored since the upper confidence level of MF prevalence is over 1% in all the hotspots studied districts. High MF prevalence is well correlated with the number of MDA rounds but not with the MDA coverage. Community people involved in MDA drug uptake in any previous and last rounds have significantly less MF infection. Hence it is recommended that before deciding to stop the MDA rounds it is essential to conduct the MF survey at the hotspots of the sentinel sites.

Sensitivity analysis and parameters estimation for the transmission of lymphatic filariasis

Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease which poses public health concern and socio-economic challenges in developing and low-income countries. In this paper, we formulate a deterministic mathematical model for transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis to generate data by white noise and use least square method to estimate parameter values. The validity of estimated parameter values is tested by Gaussian distribution method. The residuals of model outputs are normally distributed and hence can be used to study the dynamics of Lymphatic filariasis. After deriving the basic reproduction number, R 0 by the next generation matrix approach, the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient is employed to explore which parameters significantly affect and most influential to the model outputs. The analysis for equilibrium states shows that the Lymphatic free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less a unity and endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R 0 ≥ 1 . The findings reveal that rate of human infection, recruitment rate of mosquitoes increase the average new infections for Lymphatic filariasis. Moreover, asymptomatic individuals contribute significantly in the transmission of Lymphatic filariasis.

Assessment of antigenemia among children in four hotspots of filarial endemic districts of Nepal during post-MDA surveillance

BACKGROUND

Sixty-three out of 77 districts reported lymphatic filariasis (LF) endemic in Nepal. Mass drug administration (MDA) with diethylcarbamazine (DEC) and albendazole (ALB) treatment program was continued for 6 to 11 rounds in these districts. Nepal government has stopped the MDA program based on the transmission assessment survey (TAS) report of 2014 and 2018 indicating Wuchereria bancrofti antigenemia prevalence < 2%. But the persistence of low levels of the circulating filarial antigen (CFA) in some foci of four endemic districts of Central Nepal, i.e., 0.4% in Dhading, 0.7% in Mahottari, 0.21% in Lalitpur and 1.2% in Bara district could responsible for enhancing the risk of infection resurgence. Hence the present study was designed to assess antigenic prevalence using Filariasis Test Strip (Alere, Scarborough ME) in children born after MDA in hotspot areas of four endemic districts of Central Nepal.

RESULTS

The present study covers 70% children of the eligible population. The result revealed significantly high CFA prevalence in hotspots of Mahottari district belonging to the Terai region and Dhading district belonging to the hilly region, i.e., 13% and 10%, respectively, compared to baseline prevalence and TAS report. While in Lalitpur district and Bara district CFA prevalence was still found to be less than 2%. A higher number of MDA rounds covered in hotspots were found significantly associated with the low antigenic prevalence of W. bancrofti. Whereas median treatment coverage and inter-quartile range (IQR) in study districts were not found significantly associated with CFA prevalence. Although the clinical manifestation of hydrocele (1%) was found in all four study districts, it was not due to the W. bancrofti infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Two hotspot regions, one each from the Terai (Mahottari) and hilly (Dhading) districts were found highly prevalent with CFA and significantly associated with the number of MDA rounds but were not associated with treatment coverage and IQR. Higher CFA prevalence was observed in hotspots where baseline prevalence was high together indicating that rounds of MDA program need to be extended further in these hotspot regions of endemic districts.

Factors Associated with the Acceptability of Mass Drug Administration for Filariasis: A Systematic Review

Mass drug administration (MDA) has been implemented as a tool to eliminate lymphatic filariasis. Acceptability among susceptible populations is crucial to achieving MDA effective coverage. This systematic review aims to present and systematically determine the factors associated with the acceptability of MDA. Articles related to factors associated with acceptability were collected electronically from three different databases (Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed). Four pairs of independent reviewers screened the titles and abstracts of the collected data, stored in EndnoteX7, against the inclusion criteria. Afterwards, the included articles have been critically appraised to assess the quality of the studies using the Mixed Method Appraisal Tool (MMAT). Of the 68 articles identified, 11 were included in the final review. Knowledge, awareness, attitude and perceptions, communications, delivery and accessibility of MDA, gender, and age are the factors associated with MDA acceptability. Community acceptance remains a challenge in the implementation of MDA. To expand MDA coverage in all endemic countries, there is a strong need to address the factors influencing community acceptance of MDA.

A Comparative Study of Lymphatic Filariasis-Related Perceptions among Treated and Non-Treated Individuals in the Ahanta West Municipality of Ghana

Background: Ghana joined the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF), established in the year 2000, with the aim of eliminating the disease as a public health problem through annual mass treatment of entire endemic populations. Since 2001, the country has implemented mass drug administration (MDA) in endemic districts, with great reductions in the population at risk for infection. However, in many districts, the elimination programme is faced with the presence of hotspots, which may be due in part to individuals not taking part in MDA (either intentionally or unintentionally) who may serve as reservoirs to sustain transmission. This paper compares the LF-related perceptions among individuals who regularly take the MDA drugs and those who seldom or never take part in the MDA in the Ahanta West Municipality of Ghana to determine community acceptable ways to implement an intervention aimed to track, engage, and treat individuals who regularly miss MDA or to test individuals who intentionally refuse MDA and treat them if positive for LF. Methods: This was a mixed method study employing questionnaire surveys and focus group discussions (FDG) for data collection. Survey participants were randomly selected from the 2019 treatment register to stratify respondents into treated and non-treated groups. FGD participants were selected purposively such that there are at least two non-treated persons in each discussion session. Results: Over 90% of the respondents were aware of the disease. Poor hygiene/dirty environment was wrongly reported by most respondents (76.8%) as the causes. MDA awareness was very high among both treated (96.9%) and non-treated (98.6%) groups. A low sense of vulnerability to LF infection was evident by a reduction in the number of people presenting clinical manifestations of the disease in communities. Slightly more, 65 (29.0%) of the non-treated group compared to the 42 (19.4%) treated group reported ever experiencing adverse effects of the MDA drugs. Barriers to MDA uptake reported in both groups were poor planning and implementation of the MDA, lack of commitments on the part of drug distributors, and adverse drug reactions. About 51% of the non-treated group reported never taking the drugs even once in the last five years, while 61% among the treated group took the MDA drug consistently in the past five years. Respondents in both groups believed that, when engaged properly, most non-treated persons will accept to take the drug but insisted community drug distributors (CDDs) must be trained to effectively engage people and have time for those they will be engaging in dialogue. The chiefs emerged as the most influential people who can influence people to take MDA drugs. Conclusions: The reduction in risk perception among respondents, adverse reactions and the timing of MDA activities may be influencing MDA non-participation in the study area; however, respondents think that non-treated individuals will accept the interventions when engaged properly by the CDDs. This has been corrected and it now read “Respondents in both groups believed that, when community drug distributors (CDDs) are trained on how to engage the non-treated persons in effective dialogue, most of them will accept to take the drugs”.

The relevance of studying insect-nematode interactions for human disease

Vertebrate-parasitic nematodes cause debilitating, chronic infections in millions of people worldwide. The burden of these so-called 'neglected tropical diseases' is often carried by poorer socioeconomic communities in part because research on parasitic nematodes and their vertebrate hosts is challenging and costly. However, complex biological and pathological processes can be modeled in simpler organisms. Here, we consider how insight into the interactions between entomopathogenic nematodes (EPN), their insect hosts and bacterial symbionts may reveal novel treatment targets for parasitic nematode infections. We argue that a combination of approaches that target nematodes, as well as the interaction of pathogens with insect vectors and bacterial symbionts, offer potentially effective, but underexplored opportunities.

Analytical mapping of information and communication technology in emerging infectious diseases using CiteSpace

The prevalence of severe infectious diseases has become a major global health concern. Currently, the COVID-19 outbreak has spread across the world and has created an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. The proliferation of novel viruses has put traditional health systems under immense pressure and posed several serious issues. Henceforth, early detection, identification, rapid testing, and advanced surveillance systems are required to address public health emergencies. However, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) tackles several issues raised by this pandemic and significantly improves the quality of services in the health care sector. This paper presents an ICT-assisted scientometric analysis of infectious diseases, namely, airborne, food & waterborne, fomite-borne, sexually transmitted illnesses, and vector-borne illnesses. It assesses the international research status of this field in terms of citation structure, prolific journals, and country contributions. It has used the CiteSpace tool to address the visualization needs and in-depth insights of scientific literature to pinpoint core hotspots, research frontiers, emerging research areas, and ICT trends. The research finding reveals that mobile apps, telemedicine, and artificial intelligence technologies have greater scope to reduce the threats of infectious diseases. COVID-19, influenza, HIV, and malaria viruses have been identified as research hotspots whereas COVID-19, contact tracing applications, security and privacy concerns about users' data are the recent challenges in this field that need to address. The United States has produced higher research output in all domains of infectious diseases. Furthermore, it explores the co-occurrence network analysis and intellectual landscape of each domain of infectious diseases. It provides potential research directions and insightful clues to researchers and the academic fraternity for further research.

COVID-19 related perception among some community members and frontline healthcare providers for NTD control in Ghana

Introduction

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in a major breakdown of health service provision in the fight against neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). COVID-19 may impact NTDs service delivery in varied ways. As the Ghana NTD programme planned to resume MDA activities, we examined the COVID-19 related perceptions and practices among some community members and frontline health workers for NTD control activities in the country.

Methods

The study was conducted in seven communities in the Ahanta West district of Ghana. This was a qualitative study using in-depth interviews (IDI) and focus group discussions (FGDs) for data collection. Participants were purposively selected from varied backgrounds to represent both beneficiaries and service providers directly involved in NTD programme implementation. Trained and experienced qualitative data collectors conducted the FGD and IDI sessions in the local Twi language, while health worker sessions were conducted in English. Discussions were audio-recorded and transcribed directly into English. Data was analysed using an iterative process. The transcripts were pre-coded using the broad themes, entered into a computer using Microsoft Word, and then imported into the MAXQDA software for thematic content analysis to select relevant representative narratives for presentation.

Results

Participants were aware of the COVID-19 pandemic and referred to it appropriately as ‘coronavirus’, COVID-19, and often as ‘the new disease’. Though many respondents could not describe the route of transmission, most of them reported that it is transmitted through touch or sharing of common items. They reported some signs/symptoms like fever, headache and difficulty breathing, and prevention methods like the use of hand sanitiser, washing of hands and sneezing appropriately. Respondents have reported that COVID-19 has negatively affected their daily lives by limiting their movements and therefore work. It also came to light that COVID-19 has also negatively affected the NTD programme implementation, especially mass drug administration (MDA) activities, leading to the postponement of the yearly MDA. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected clinic attendance; people are afraid that they may be tested for COVID-19 at the clinic.

Conclusion

COVID-19 has negatively affected the NTD programme. Education and the provision of personal protective equipment will be required to build the confidence of frontline care providers including community drug distributors and community members in order to enhance quality service and participation in future MDA activities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07084-0.

Individual Efficacy and Community Impact of Ivermectin, Diethylcarbamazine, and Albendazole Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Control in Fiji: A Cluster Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND

Bancroftian filariasis remains endemic in Fiji despite >10 years of mass drug administration (MDA) using diethylcarbamazine and albendazole (DA). The addition of ivermectin to this combination (IDA) has improved efficacy of microfilarial clearance at 12 months in individually randomized trials in nocturnal transmission settings, but impact in a setting of diurnally subperiodic filarial transmission has not been evaluated.

METHODS

This cluster randomized study compared the individual efficacy and community impact of IDA vs DA as MDA for lymphatic filariasis in 35 villages on 2 islands of Fiji. Participants were tested at enrollment for circulating filarial antigen and, if positive, for microfilariae. Weight-dosed treatment was offered according to village randomization. Communities were visited at 12 months and retested for lymphatic filariasis. Infected individuals from Rotuma were retested at 24 months.

RESULTS

A total of 3816 participants were enrolled and 3616 were treated. At 12 months, microfilariae clearance was achieved in 72 of 111 participants detected with infection at baseline, with no difference in efficacy between treatment groups: DA, 69.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 57.2%-79.1%) vs IDA, 62.5% (95% CI, 43.6%-78.2%); risk difference, 11.3 % (95% CI, -10% to 32.7%); P = .30. There was no difference between treatment groups in community prevalence of microfilariae at 12 months or individual clearance at 24 months.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no difference between IDA and DA in individual clearance or community prevalence of lymphatic filariasis at 12 months, and no improved efficacy following a second annual round of IDA. Possible explanations for the apparent lack of benefit of IDA compared to DA include drug and parasite factors affecting clearance, and higher than expected reinfection rates. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT03177993 and Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry: N12617000738325.

A mathematical model of the dynamics of lymphatic filariasis in Caraga Region, the Philippines

Despite being one of the first countries to implement mass drug administration (MDA) for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) in 2001 after a pilot study in 2000, the Philippines is yet to eliminate the disease as a public health problem with 6 out of the 46 endemic provinces still implementing MDA for LF as of 2018. In this work, we propose a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of LF in the Philippines and a control strategy for its elimination using MDA. Sensitivity analysis using the Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficient methods suggests that the infected human population is most sensitive to the treatment parameters. Using the available LF data in Caraga Region from the Philippine Department of Health, we estimate the treatment rates r ₁ and r ₂ using the least-squares parameter estimation technique. Parameter bootstrapping showed small variability in the parameter estimates. Finally, we apply optimal control theory with the objective of minimizing the infected human population and the corresponding implementation cost of MDA, using the treatment coverage γ as the control parameter. Simulation results highlight the importance of maintaining a high MDA coverage per year to effectively minimize the infected population by the year 2030.

Coverage Validation Survey for Lymphatic Filariasis Treatment in Itang Special District of Gambella Regional State of Ethiopia: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the most debilitating and disfiguring diseases common in Ethiopia. In order to alleviate this problem Mass drug administration (MDA) has been given once a year for the public living in endemic sites. Despite this fact there might be a difference between reported coverage and the actual coverage on the ground due to various errors, so assessing the actual coverage through coverage validation survey appears imperative.

Objective

The aim of this survey was to assess the difference between the reported coverage and actual coverage of Ivermectin (IVM) and Albendazole (ALB) treatment given for Lymphatic Filariasis in Itang special district of Gambella regional state, Ethiopia.

Setting

The study was conducted in Itang special district of Gambella region, the district was purposively selected for lymphatic filariasis treatment coverage survey. Eligible individuals aged 5 and above were interviewed. Data about the children were collected from parents or guardians and analyzed using STATA.

Results

The survey showed that the coverage for LF treatment was 81.5%. From 825 individuals that reported that they were offered the treatment 823 (99.6%) swallowed the drug. The coverage in school age children (5-14) shows significant difference with treatment coverage in individuals aged 15 and above (p<0.001) in the last mass drug administration campaign. The main reason for not being offered preventive chemotherapy (PC) during the mass drug administration campaigns was missing class during the MDA (37.2%).

Conclusion

The treatment coverage is higher than the recommended coverage of 65% of the target population. The coverage in school age children (5-14) showed significant difference with treatment coverage in individuals aged 15 and above. Improving the coverage level beyond this can significantly contribute to the LF elimination goal.

Implementation challenges and opportunities for improved mass treatment uptake for lymphatic filariasis elimination: Perceptions and experiences of community drug distributors of coastal Kenya

Community drug distributors (CDDs) who are volunteers have the responsibility of awareness creation, household census, drug distribution and record-keeping and are thus key stakeholders in the campaign for Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) elimination. Taking into account their experiences and perceptions is important for a successful elimination campaign. We conducted a qualitative study in 2018 to identify implementation challenges and opportunities for improved mass drug administration (MDA) uptake based on the CDDs perceptions and experiences. Within a larger study that used mixed methods quasi-experimental design, we collected qualitative data from two wards in Kaloleni Sub-County of Kilifi County which was purposively selected owing to its low, 56% and 50.5% treatment coverage in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Focus group discussions (FGDs) (n = 8) and in-depth interviews (IDIs) (n = 8) with CDDs, IDIs (n = 22) with opinion leaders and IDIs (n = 8) with health workers were conducted and the data analyzed by QSR NVIVO version 10 according to thematic areas. The results showed that based on the perceptions and experiences of the CDDs, several challenges: communities’ refusal to take the drugs; absenteeism during MDA; non-adherence to CDDs selection criteria; inadequacy in number of CDDs engaged during the campaign and training provided; insufficiency of drugs issued to CDDs; lack of CDDs supervision and low motivation negatively impact on MDA uptake. Opportunities to address the challenges included: awareness creation on MDA, health education on LF and observation of hygiene during drug administration, increased duration of awareness creation and drug administration, adherence to CDDs selection criteria and putting into consideration the vastness of an area and population density while deploying CDDs. Other opportunities include: improved CDDs training and scheduling; issuing of enough drugs to CDDs to meet the communities’ demand and improved supervision and motivation of CDDs. Addressing the challenges highlighted is an important step of maximizing MDA uptake. The opportunities presented need to be considered by the NTD program personnel, the county health personnel and the community while planning the implementation of MDA campaigns.

Elephantiasis infection which is common in tropical areas is targeted for elimination globally through delivery of drugs to all populations living in areas where infections occur. Community Drug Distributors (CDDs) are persons who live in the affected communities and who volunteer themselves to distribute drugs after receiving training from the health care workers. Understanding the challenges and opportunities for improved community drug uptake from the perspectives and experiences of the CDDs is important for a successful elimination campaign.

As part of a larger study to address barriers of drug uptake in Kenya, we collected qualitative data to explore the challenges and opportunities for improved drug uptake in two wards of Kilifi County. The data was collected through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews and analyzed.

For drug uptake to be improved, the CDDs’ mentioned challenges related to how their selection is done, number of CDDs engaged, quality of their training, quantities of drugs issued to them, supervision and motivation that need to be addressed. The communities targeted for treatment need well scheduled health education activities on elephantiasis, awareness creation on drug distribution and drug reaction for them to understand the importance of receiving the treatment. These findings suggest the need for strong collaborations between NTD program, county health personnel and the community that are useful in the planning the implementation of successful national programs.

Statistical methods for linking geostatistical maps and transmission models: Application to lymphatic filariasis in East Africa

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Novel methodology for combining geostatistical mapping and transmission modelling.

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Guide the planning of spatial control programmes by identifying affected areas.

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Current intervention strategy will not be sufficient to eliminate LF in most areas.

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Alternative strategies will be required to accelerate LF elimination in East Africa.

Infectious diseases remain one of the major causes of human mortality and suffering. Mathematical models have been established as an important tool for capturing the features that drive the spread of the disease, predicting the progression of an epidemic and hence guiding the development of strategies to control it. Another important area of epidemiological interest is the development of geostatistical methods for the analysis of data from spatially referenced prevalence surveys. Maps of prevalence are useful, not only for enabling a more precise disease risk stratification, but also for guiding the planning of more reliable spatial control programmes by identifying affected areas. Despite the methodological advances that have been made in each area independently, efforts to link transmission models and geostatistical maps have been limited. Motivated by this fact, we developed a Bayesian approach that combines fine-scale geostatistical maps of disease prevalence with transmission models to provide quantitative, spatially-explicit projections of the current and future impact of control programs against a disease. These estimates can then be used at a local level to identify the effectiveness of suggested intervention schemes and allow investigation of alternative strategies. The methodology has been applied to lymphatic filariasis in East Africa to provide estimates of the impact of different intervention strategies against the disease.

Simulating a Transmission Assessment Survey: An evaluation of current methods used in determining the elimination of the neglected tropical disease, Lymphatic Filariasis

INTRODUCTION

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends Transmission Assessment Surveys (TAS) to determine when an evaluation unit (EU) (a designated population survey area) has achieved elimination of transmission of the vector-borne macroparasitic disease Lymphatic Filariasis (LF). These determinations are based on combining data from multiple survey units within an EU; it is unclear how underlying cluster-level variation influences the outcome of the TAS at EU level. We simulate LF infection distribution in an EU and compare three methods for assessing whether LF elimination has occurred based on currently recommended decision thresholds and sampling methods.

METHODS

We simulate an EU divided into clusters of varying size and disease prevalence. We produce 1000 samples according to LF TAS examples and WHO guidelines and compare three decision-making approaches: lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) (recommended by WHO), one-sided interval estimate (CI), and n^th order statistic (MAX). Summary statistics demonstrating the "pass" rate for the EU under different disease transmission conditions are generated using a versatile SAS® macro.

RESULTS

As the prevalence of LF decreases, the LQAS and CI approaches produce increased likelihood of a pass outcome for an EU while some cluster units may still have a high likelihood of transmission. The MAX provides an alternative that increases the likelihood of determining a pass only once the whole area has a low likelihood of transmission. LQAS and CI approaches designed to estimate the LF prevalence in the EU miss hotspots that will continue to transmit infection while the MAX approach focuses on identifying clusters with high risk of transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

The current TAS methodology has a flaw that may result in false predictions of LF transmission interruption throughout an EU. Modifying the TAS methodology to address results from extreme clusters rather than being based on mean prevalence over an EU will result in greater success for global elimination of LF.

Defining a prevalence level to describe the elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) transmission and designing monitoring & evaluating (M&E) programmes post the cessation of mass drug administration (MDA)

The global decline in prevalence of lymphatic filariasis has been one of the major successes of the WHO's NTD programme. The recommended strategy of intensive, community-wide mass drug administration, aims to break localised transmission by either reducing the prevalence of microfilaria positive infections to below 1%, or antigen positive infections to below 2%. After the threshold is reached, and mass drug administration is stopped, geographically defined evaluation units must pass Transmission Assessment Surveys to demonstrate that transmission has been interrupted. In this study, we use an empirically parameterised stochastic transmission model to investigate the appropriateness of 1% microfilaria-positive prevalence as a stopping threshold, and statistically evaluate how well various monitoring prevalence-thresholds predict elimination or disease resurgence in the future by calculating their predictive value. Our results support the 1% filaremia prevalence target as appropriate stopping criteria. However, because at low prevalence-levels random events dominate the transmission dynamics, we find single prevalence measurements have poor predictive power for predicting resurgence, which suggests alternative criteria for restarting MDA may be beneficial.

A Mathematical Model for the Transmission Dynamics of Lymphatic Filariasis with Intervention Strategies

This manuscript considers the transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis with some intervention strategies in place. Unlike previously developed models, our model takes into account both the exposed and infected classes in both the human and mosquito populations, respectively. We also consider vaccinated, treated and recovered humans in the presented model. The global dynamics of the proposed model are completely determined by the basic ([Formula: see text]) and effective reproduction numbers ([Formula: see text]). We then use Lyapunov function theory to find the sufficient conditions for global stability of both the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. The Lyapunov functions show that when the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to unity, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and when it is greater than unity then the endemic equilibrium is also globally asymptotically stable. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to investigate the effects of the intervention strategies and key parameters to the spread of lymphatic filariasis. The numerical simulations support the analytical results and illustrate possible model behavioral scenarios.

Addressing barriers of community participation and access to mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis elimination in Coastal Kenya using a participatory approach

Since the prioritization of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) elimination in 1997, progress has been made in reducing disease transmission and burden. Validation of elimination through Transmission Assessment Surveys (TAS) in implementation units (IUs) that have received at least 5 rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) and achieved minimum threshold of 65% treatment coverage is required. There are IUs that do not qualify for TAS due to achievement of low treatment coverage. This study sought to identify barriers of community participation and access to MDA, develop and test strategies to be recommended for improved uptake. Two wards in Kaloleni sub-county, Kilifi county with an average treatment coverage of 56% in 2015, 50.5% in 2016 were purposively sampled and a quasi-experimental study conducted. Through systematic random sampling, 350 (pre-intervention) and 338 (post-intervention) household heads were selected and interviewed for quantitative data. For qualitative data, 16 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with purposively selected community groups were conducted. Participatory meetings were held with county stakeholders to agree on strategies for improved community participation in MDA. The quantitative data were analyzed using STATA version 14.1, statistical significance assessed by chi square test and qualitative data by QSR NVIVO version 10. The identified strategies were tested in experimental sites during the 2018 MDA and the usual MDA strategies applied in control sites. The results showed an increase in community participation and access to MDA in both sites 80.6% (pre-intervention), 82.9% (post-intervention). The proportion of participants who considered the treatment as necessary significantly (p = 0.001) increased to 96.2% from 88.3% and significantly dropped for those with drug swallowing problems associated with: size (p<0.001), number (p<0.027) and taste (p = 0.001). The implemented strategies may have contributed to increased participation and access to MDA and should be applied for improved treatment uptake. Health education on disease aetiology and importance of drug uptake in all rounds is key to program's success.

Predicting lymphatic filariasis elimination in data-limited settings: A reconstructive computational framework for combining data generation and model discovery

Although there is increasing importance placed on the use of mathematical models for the effective design and management of long-term parasite elimination, it is becoming clear that transmission models are most useful when they reflect the processes pertaining to local infection dynamics as opposed to generalized dynamics. Such localized models must also be developed even when the data required for characterizing local transmission processes are limited or incomplete, as is often the case for neglected tropical diseases, including the disease system studied in this work, viz. lymphatic filariasis (LF). Here, we draw on progress made in the field of computational knowledge discovery to present a reconstructive simulation framework that addresses these challenges by facilitating the discovery of both data and models concurrently in areas where we have insufficient observational data. Using available data from eight sites from Nigeria and elsewhere, we demonstrate that our data-model discovery system is able to estimate local transmission models and missing pre-control infection information using generalized knowledge of filarial transmission dynamics, monitoring survey data, and details of historical interventions. Forecasts of the impacts of interventions carried out in each site made by the models estimated using the reconstructed baseline data matched temporal infection observations and provided useful information regarding when transmission interruption is likely to have occurred. Assessments of elimination and resurgence probabilities based on the models also suggest a protective effect of vector control against the reemergence of LF transmission after stopping drug treatments. The reconstructive computational framework for model and data discovery developed here highlights how coupling models with available data can generate new knowledge about complex, data-limited systems, and support the effective management of disease programs in the face of critical data gaps.

As modelling becomes commonly used in the design and evaluation of parasite elimination programs, the need for well-defined models and datasets describing the nature of transmission processes in local settings is becoming pronounced. For many neglected tropical diseases, however, data for site-specific model identification are typically sparse or incomplete. In this study, we present a new data-model computational discovery system that couples data-assimilation methods based on existing monitoring survey data with model-generated data about baseline conditions to discover the local transmission models required for simulating the impacts of interventions in typical endemic locations for the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF). Using data from eight study sites in Nigeria and elsewhere, we show that our reconstructive computational framework is able to combine information contained within partially-available site-specific monitoring data with knowledge of parasite transmission dynamics embedded in process-based models to generate the missing data required for inducing reliable locally applicable LF models. We also show that the models so discovered are able to generate the intervention forecasts required for supporting management-relevant decisions in parasite elimination.

Elimination or Resurgence: Modelling Lymphatic Filariasis After Reaching the 1% Microfilaremia Prevalence Threshold

The low prevalence levels associated with lymphatic filariasis elimination pose a challenge for effective disease surveillance. As more countries achieve the World Health Organization criteria for halting mass treatment and move on to surveillance, there is increasing reliance on the utility of transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to measure success. However, the long-term disease outcomes after passing TAS are largely untested. Using 3 well-established mathematical models, we show that low-level prevalence can be maintained for a long period after halting mass treatment and that true elimination (0% prevalence) is usually slow to achieve. The risk of resurgence after achieving current targets is low and is hard to predict using just current prevalence. Although resurgence is often quick (<5 years), it can still occur outside of the currently recommended postintervention surveillance period of 4-6 years. Our results highlight the need for ongoing and enhanced postintervention monitoring, beyond the scope of TAS, to ensure sustained success.

Risk factors associated with failing pre-transmission assessment surveys (pre-TAS) in lymphatic filariasis elimination programs: Results of a multi-country analysis

Achieving elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem requires a minimum of five effective rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) and demonstrating low prevalence in subsequent assessments. The first assessments recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) are sentinel and spot-check sites—referred to as pre-transmission assessment surveys (pre-TAS)—in each implementation unit after MDA. If pre-TAS shows that prevalence in each site has been lowered to less than 1% microfilaremia or less than 2% antigenemia, the implementation unit conducts a TAS to determine whether MDA can be stopped. Failure to pass pre-TAS means that further rounds of MDA are required. This study aims to understand factors influencing pre-TAS results using existing programmatic data from 554 implementation units, of which 74 (13%) failed, in 13 countries. Secondary data analysis was completed using existing data from Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Haiti, Indonesia, Mali, Nepal, Niger, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, and Uganda. Additional covariate data were obtained from spatial raster data sets. Bivariate analysis and multilinear regression were performed to establish potential relationships between variables and the pre-TAS result. Higher baseline prevalence and lower elevation were significant in the regression model. Variables statistically significantly associated with failure (p-value ≤0.05) in the bivariate analyses included baseline prevalence at or above 5% or 10%, use of Filariasis Test Strips (FTS), primary vector of Culex, treatment with diethylcarbamazine-albendazole, higher elevation, higher population density, higher enhanced vegetation index (EVI), higher annual rainfall, and 6 or more rounds of MDA. This paper reports for the first time factors associated with pre-TAS results from a multi-country analysis. This information can help countries more effectively forecast program activities, such as the potential need for more rounds of MDA, and prioritize resources to ensure adequate coverage of all persons in areas at highest risk of failing pre-TAS.

Achieving elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem requires a minimum of five rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) and being able to demonstrate low prevalence in several subsequent assessments. LF elimination programs implement sentinel and spot-check site assessments, called pre-TAS, to determine whether districts are eligible to implement more rigorous population-based surveys to determine whether MDA can be stopped or if further rounds are required. Reasons for failing pre-TAS are not well understood and have not previously been examined with data compiled from multiple countries. For this analysis, we analyzed data from routine USAID and WHO reports from Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Haiti, Indonesia, Mali, Nepal, Niger, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, and Uganda. In a model that included multiple variables, high baseline prevalence and lower elevation were significant. In models comparing only one variable to the outcome, the following were statistically significantly associated with failure: higher baseline prevalence at or above 5% or 10%, use of the FTS, primary vector of Culex, treatment with diethylcarbamazine-albendazole, lower elevation, higher population density, higher Enhanced Vegetation Index, higher annual rainfall, and six or more rounds of mass drug administration. These results can help national programs plan MDA more effectively, e.g., by focusing resources on areas with higher baseline prevalence and/or lower elevation.

Review of MDA registers for Lymphatic Filariasis: Findings, and potential uses in addressing the endgame elimination challenges

Background

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is endemic in Ghana, and the country has implemented the GPELF strategy since 2000 with significant progress made in the control of the disease. However, after several years of mass drug administration (MDA) implementation, there is persistent transmission in 17 of the 98 endemic districts in the country. Current approaches to surveillance are clearly unable to target untreated individuals and new strategies are required to address the endgame challenges to enhance LF elimination as a public health problem in endemic countries. Community registers are used during MDAs to enumerate community members, their age, gender, house numbers, and records of their participation in MDAs. These MDA registers represent an untapped opportunity to identify and characterize non-compliance and inform appropriate programmatic actions. In this study, we analyzed the data presented in the registers to assess the coverage and individuals’ compliance in MDA.

Methods

The information in the MDA registers were assessed to verify the reported coverages obtained from the district. The community registers were obtained from the district health offices and the data from each individual record was entered into a database. A simple questionnaire was used to cross-check the participation of study participants in the 2017 MDA. The questionnaire solicited data on: participation in the 2017 MDA, reasons for not taking part in the MDA, adverse events experienced, what was done for the adverse events, and willingness to participate in subsequent MDAs.

Results

We found that 40.1% of the population in the registers missed at least one MDA in 3 years (2016–2018) and the majority of them were between 10–30 years of age. The results of the questionnaire assessment indicated that 13.8% of the respondents did not receive treatment in 2017 for various reasons, the most prominent among them being “absence/travel” (37.1%). Data in the registers were used to verify the treatment coverage for the years 2017 and 2018, and reviewed against the reported coverage obtained from the district. Significant differences between the reported and verified coverages were only observed in four communities. However, the assessment also revealed that the reported coverage was only accurate in 33.3% of cases.

Conclusions

The MDA registers allow for the identification of eligible individuals who were not reached during any MDA round. Thus, the MDA registers could be utilized at the community and programme levels to identify missing and untreated individuals, appropriately address their non-compliance to MDA, and thereby improve MDA coverage in each implementation unit and monitor the progress towards elimination of LF. The challenges observed through the review of the registers also offer opportunities to improve the training given to the community drug distributors.

Elephantiasis is a disease that is common in Ghana. Since the year 2000 the country has implemented a control programme aimed at eliminating the disease as a public health problem, through the yearly treatment of entire communities in districts where the disease is found. Achievements have been made, and treatment has stopped in many districts; however, some districts have received many years of treatment without successfully reducing the infections below the targeted levels. Many individuals go untreated every year, as can be observed from the low reported treatment coverage after MDA. This untreated population may explain why some districts have failed to achieve the criteria for stopping treatment. Fortunately, the treatments are recorded in community registers, which contain the details of all community members, as well as their treatment participation. These registers can therefore be used to identify people who have not received treatment and design appropriate interventions to reach them. Through these registers, we were able to identify and characterize individuals who were not treated between 2016 and 2018 in 10 communities. We found that 4 out of 10 people missed at least one treatment between 2016 and 2018, and the majority of them were 10–30 years of age. Using the information from the registers we were also able to verify the proportion of people who took part in the treatments in 2017 and 2018, and compared this to what was reported. This comparison revealed that the reporting was only accurate in 33% of cases. A questionnaire was also used to cross-check the participation of study participants in the 2017 MDA, with results indicating that 13.8% of the respondents did not receive treatment for various reasons, the most prominent among them being “absence/travel” (37.1%). Although these registers are seldom used by the Lymphatic Filariasis Control Programme for anything other than recording and reporting treatment information, this study shows that the registers provide an opportunity to identify individuals who have not received treatment, develop a plan to appropriately address their reasons for not taking part in the treatments, target these untreated individuals to improve the overall proportion of people taking part in MDA, and assess the accuracy of reported coverage information. These activities will allow the programme to better monitor the progress towards, and ultimately achieve, elimination of lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem.

An Expanded Transmission Assessment Survey to Confirm the Interruption of Lymphatic Filariasis Transmission in Wallis and Futuna

Historically, the human prevalence of Wuchereria bancrofti infection in Wallis and Futuna (WAF) was among the highest in the Pacific and mass drug administration (MDA) against lymphatic filariasis (LF) either with diethylcarbamazine citrate (DEC) or the combination of DEC and albendazole had been implemented for decades. To determine whether LF antigen prevalence in WAF was lower than 1%, the infection threshold for elimination in an area where Aedes spp. are the principal vectors, we conducted the WHO-recommended transmission assessment survey in 2012. We present the results of a school-based survey, which targeted 1,014 students in all 13 elementary schools in WAF. From a fingerprick, the circulating filarial antigen (CFA) positivity was checked for grade 2-5 students using BinaxNOW filariasis test (immunochromatographic test). Of 935 children tested, three were positive for CFA in two schools. At the territory level, this was below the critical cutoff of nine cases, if the whole territory was considered as a single evaluation unit. The prevalence of CFA in WAF is less than 1%, reaching the goal for LF elimination set by the WHO. We were able to recommend stopping LF MDA and move to post-MDA surveillance to detect any recrudescence. This survey successfully paved the way for WAF to be validated as achieving LF elimination as a public health problem by 2020.

The safety of combined triple drug therapy with ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine and albendazole in the neglected tropical diseases co-endemic setting of Fiji: A cluster randomised trial

Lymphatic filariasis has remained endemic in Fiji despite repeated mass drug administration using the well-established and safe combination of diethylcarbamazine and albendazole (DA) since 2002. In certain settings the addition of ivermectin to this combination (IDA) remains a safe strategy and is more efficacious. However, the safety has yet to be described in scabies and soil-transmitted helminth endemic settings like Fiji. Villages of Rotuma and Gau islands were randomised to either DA or IDA. Residents received weight-based treatment unblinded with standard exclusions. Participants were actively found and asked by a nurse about their health daily for the first two days and then asked to seek review for the next five days if unwell. Anyone with severe symptoms were reviewed by a doctor and any serious adverse event was reported to the Medical Monitor and Data Safety Monitoring Board. Of 3612 enrolled and eligible participants, 1216 were randomised to DA and 2396 to IDA. Age and sex in both groups were representative of the population. Over 99% (3598) of participants completed 7 days follow-up. Adverse events were reported by 600 participants (16.7%), distributed equally between treatment groups, with most graded as mild (93.2%). There were three serious adverse events, all judged not attributable to treatment by an independent medical monitor. Fatigue was the most common symptom reported by 8.5%, with headache, dizziness, nausea and arthralgia being the next four most common symptoms. Adverse events were more likely in participants with microfilaremia (43.2% versus 15.7%), but adverse event frequency was not related to the presence of scabies or soil-transmitted helminth infection. IDA has comparable safety to DA with the same frequency of adverse events experienced following community mass drug administration. The presence of co-endemic infections did not increase adverse events. IDA can be used in community programs where preventative chemotherapy is needed for control of lymphatic filariasis and other neglected tropical diseases.

Data-driven modelling and spatial complexity supports heterogeneity-based integrative management for eliminating Simulium neavei-transmitted river blindness

Concern is emerging regarding the challenges posed by spatial complexity for modelling and managing the area-wide elimination of parasitic infections. While this has led to calls for applying heterogeneity-based approaches for addressing this complexity, questions related to spatial scale, the discovery of locally-relevant models, and its interaction with options for interrupting parasite transmission remain to be resolved. We used a data-driven modelling framework applied to infection data gathered from different monitoring sites to investigate these questions in the context of understanding the transmission dynamics and efforts to eliminate Simulium neavei- transmitted onchocerciasis, a macroparasitic disease that causes river blindness in Western Uganda and other regions of Africa. We demonstrate that our Bayesian-based data-model assimilation technique is able to discover onchocerciasis models that reflect local transmission conditions reliably. Key management variables such as infection breakpoints and required durations of drug interventions for achieving elimination varied spatially due to site-specific parameter constraining; however, this spatial effect was found to operate at the larger focus level, although intriguingly including vector control overcame this variability. These results show that data-driven modelling based on spatial datasets and model-data fusing methodologies will be critical to identifying both the scale-dependent models and heterogeneity-based options required for supporting the successful elimination of S. neavei-borne onchocerciasis.

Ecological and Socioeconomic Predictors of Transmission Assessment Survey Failure for Lymphatic Filariasis

The transmission assessment survey (TAS) is recommended to determine whether cessation of mass drug administration (MDA) for lymphatic filariasis (LF) is warranted. Ministries of health typically implement TASs in evaluation units (EUs) that have had more than five rounds of annual MDA. Under TAS guidelines, sample size calculations determine a decision value: if the number of individuals testing positive exceeds this threshold, then MDA continues in the EU. The objective of this study was to determine whether fine scale geospatial covariates could be used to identify predictors of TAS failure. We geo-referenced 746 TAS EUs, of which 65 failed and extracted geospatial covariates using R to estimate odds of failure. We implemented stepwise backward elimination to select covariates for inclusion in a logistic regression to estimate the odds of TAS failure. Covariates included environmental predictors (aridity, distance to fresh water, elevation, and enhanced vegetation index), cumulative rounds of MDA, measures of urbanicity and access, LF species, and baseline prevalence. Presence of Brugia was significantly associated with TAS failure (odds ratio [OR]: 4.79, 95% CI: 2.52–9.07), as was population density (OR: 2.91, 95% CI: 1.06–7.98). The presence of nighttime lights was highly protective against failure (OR: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.10–0.50), as was an increase in elevation (OR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.18–0.732). This work identifies predictors associated with TAS failure at the EU areal level, given the data presently available, and also identifies the need for more granular data to conduct a more robust assessment of these predictors.

Accelerating river blindness elimination by supplementing MDA with a vegetation "slash and clear" vector control strategy: a data-driven modeling analysis

Attention is increasingly focusing on how best to accelerate progress toward meeting the WHO's 2030 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). For river blindness, a major NTD targeted for elimination, there is a long history of using vector control to suppress transmission, but traditional larvicide-based approaches are limited in their utility. One innovative and sustainable approach, "slash and clear", involves clearing vegetation from breeding areas, and recent field trials indicate that this technique very effectively reduces the biting density of Simulium damnosum s.s. In this study, we use a Bayesian data-driven mathematical modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of this intervention on human onchocerciasis infection. We developed a novel "slash and clear" model describing the effect of the intervention on seasonal black fly biting rates and coupled this with our population dynamics model of Onchocerca volvulus transmission. Our results indicate that supplementing annual drug treatments with "slash and clear" can significantly accelerate the achievement of onchocerciasis elimination. The efficacy of the intervention is not very sensitive to the timing of implementation, and the impact is meaningful even if vegetation is cleared only once per year. As such, this community-driven technique will represent an important option for achieving and sustaining O. volvulus elimination.

Current Status of Parasite Infections in Indonesia: A Literature Review

Indonesia and South Korea have become inseparable in various respects since the 2 countries established diplomatic relation in 1973. Indonesia is a tropical region that stretches across the equator, comprised of 5 main islands (Java, Kalimantan, Sumatra, Sulawesi, and Papua) and 4 archipelagoes (Riau, Bangka Belitung, Nusa Tenggara, and Maluku). As most population of Eastern Indonesia (Sulawesi, Papua and Nusa Tenggara &amp; Maluku) live in poor areas, it is expected that there will be many parasites. Nevertheless, little is known about the status of parasites in Indonesia. This study examines the prevalences of malaria and lymphatic filaria, which are prevalent in Indonesia, as well as those of soil-transmitted-helminths (STH). As a result, the Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax case loads are almost equal. The current prevalence of P. vivax is uniformly low (&lt;5%) in all age groups and annual parasite incidence (API) showed decreasing tendency as 0.84 per 1,000 population in 2016. However, more than 65 million people still live in malaria epidemic regions. Lymphatic filariasis remains an important public health problem and 236 cities were classified as endemic areas in 514 cities/districts in 2017. It is difficult to ascertain the current prevalence rate of STH in Indonesia, although West Sumba and Southwest Sumba in East Nusa Tenggara reported prevalence rate of more than 20%. The study also considers the (sero) prevalences of other parasites identified in Indonesia. This report should be useful not only to parasitologists but also to travelers and people with business in Indonesia.

Economic performance and cost-effectiveness of using a DEC-salt social enterprise for eliminating the major neglected tropical disease, lymphatic filariasis

Background

Salt fortified with the drug, diethylcarbamazine (DEC), and introduced into a competitive market has the potential to overcome the obstacles associated with tablet-based Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) elimination programs. Questions remain, however, regarding the economic viability, production capacity, and effectiveness of this strategy as a sustainable means to bring about LF elimination in resource poor settings.

Methodology and principal findings

We evaluated the performance and effectiveness of a novel social enterprise-based approach developed and tested in Léogâne, Haiti, as a strategy to sustainably and cost-efficiently distribute DEC-medicated salt into a competitive market at quantities sufficient to bring about the elimination of LF. We undertook a cost-revenue analysis to evaluate the production capability and financial feasibility of the developed DEC salt social enterprise, and a modeling study centered on applying a dynamic mathematical model localized to reflect local LF transmission dynamics to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of using this intervention versus standard annual Mass Drug Administration (MDA) for eliminating LF in Léogâne. We show that the salt enterprise because of its mixed product business strategy may have already reached the production capacity for delivering sufficient quantities of edible DEC-medicated salt to bring about LF transmission in the Léogâne study setting. Due to increasing revenues obtained from the sale of DEC salt over time, expansion of its delivery in the population, and greater cumulative impact on the survival of worms leading to shorter timelines to extinction, this strategy could also represent a significantly more cost-effective option than annual DEC tablet-based MDA for accomplishing LF elimination.

Significance

A social enterprise approach can offer an innovative market-based strategy by which edible salt fortified with DEC could be distributed to communities both on a financially sustainable basis and at sufficient quantity to eliminate LF. Deployment of similarly fashioned intervention strategies would improve current efforts to successfully accomplish the goal of LF elimination, particularly in difficult-to-control settings.

With less than three years remaining for meeting the initial 2020 target set by WHO for accomplishing the global elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF), concerns are emerging regarding the feasibility of meeting this goal using the current tablet-based Mass Drug Administration strategy. Salt fortified with the antifilarial drug, diethylcarbamazine (DEC), could offer an intervention that avoids many of the barriers connected with tablet-based elimination programs. We analyzed the economic performance and cost-effectiveness of a novel DEC-salt social enterprise developed and tested in Léogâne arrondissement, Haiti, as a particularly significant strategy for accomplishing sustainable LF elimination in such complex settings. We show that because of increasing revenue from the sale of the DEC salt over time, expansion of its delivery in the population, and the adverse effect of continuous consumption of the drug on worms, the delivery of DEC through a salt enterprise can represent a significantly more cost-effective option than annual DEC tablet-based MDA for accomplishing LF elimination in settings, like Léogâne. We indicate that development of policy and research into how to deploy similarly-fashioned interventions, or work with the salt industry to increase population use of medicated salt, would improve present efforts to successfully accomplish the elimination of LF.

Bancroftian Filariasis Still Endemic in Some Foci in Sohag Governorate, Upper Egypt

Bancroftian filariasis (BF) is a debilitating disease that has plagued Egypt since the time of the pharaohs. Egypt is the first large endemic country in the world to reach the five-year mark in its national campaign. Now that the mass treatments are completed, a follow-up epidemiological assessment will reveal whether this large-scale, pioneering campaign has been successful in finally eliminating the disease. Hence the aim of the present work was to detect the prevalence of bancoftian filariasis in Tema, El-Maragha, Akhmeem and Girga districts in Sohag Governorate, Upper Egypt. Finger prick thick blood films were randomly collected from 500 clinically suspected individuals representing different sexes and ages suffering from lower limb non-pitting edema and/or inguinal lymphadenitis from May 2015 to February 2017. Three patients (0.6%) were infected with microfilariae of Wuchereria bancrofti while one chronic case was detected with severe chronic elephantiasis that was amicrofilaraemic but was confirmed serologically. Results were discussed in regards of age, gender, occupation, locality and residence. It was concluded that bancroftian filariasis is still endemic in three districts (Tema, El- maragha and Girga). Although in sporadic few cases, the problem should be taken seriously as one microfilaramic patient could be a patent reservoir for spreading of the disease through infecting the prevailing Culex pipiense mosquito intermediate host.

Lymphatic filariasis transmission in Rufiji District, southeastern Tanzania: infection status of the human population and mosquito vectors after twelve rounds of mass drug administration

Background

Control of lymphatic filariasis (LF) in most of the sub-Saharan African countries is based on annual mass drug administration (MDA) using a combination of ivermectin and albendazole. Monitoring the impact of this intervention is crucial for measuring the success of the LF elimination programmes. This study assessed the status of LF infection in Rufiji district, southeastern Tanzania after twelve rounds of MDA.

Methods

Community members aged between 10 and 79 years were examined for Wuchereria bancrofti circulating filarial antigens (CFA) using immunochromatographic test cards (ICTs) and antigen-positive individuals were screened for microfilaraemia. All study participants were examined for clinical manifestation of LF and interviewed for drug uptake during MDA rounds. Filarial mosquito vectors were collected indoor and outdoor and examined for infection with W. bancrofti using a microscope and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) techniques.

Results

Out of 854 participants tested, nine (1.1%) were positive for CFA and one (0.1%) was found to be microfilaraemic. The prevalence of hydrocele and elephantiasis was 4.8% and 2.9%, respectively. Surveyed drug uptake rates were high, with 70.5% of the respondents reporting having swallowed the drugs in the 2014 MDA round (about seven months before this study). Further, 82.7% of the respondents reported having swallowed the drugs at least once since the inception of MDA programme in 2000. Of the 1054 filarial vectors caught indoors and dissected to detect W. bancrofti infection none was found to be infected. Moreover, analysis by qPCR of 1092 pools of gravid Culex quinquefasciatus collected outdoors resulted in an estimated infection rate of 0.1%. None of the filarial vectors tested with qPCR were found to be infective.

Conclusion

Analysis of indices of LF infection in the human population and filarial mosquito vectors indicated a substantial decline in the prevalence of LF and other transmission indices, suggesting that local transmission was extremely low if occurring at all in the study areas. We, therefore, recommend a formal transmission assessment survey (TAS) to be conducted in the study areas to make an informed decision on whether Rufiji District satisfied WHO criteria for stopping MDA.

Perceived threat and benefit toward community compliance of filariasis' mass drug administration in Pekalongan district, Indonesia

PURPOSE

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a chronic infection of Brugia malayi, Brugia timori, and Wuchereria bancrofti and is a mosquito-transmitted disease. Mass drug administration (MDA) needs to be done annually to control LF and requires adherence of endemic populations to take medication properly. Maintaining high coverage of MDA is a challenge because the activity needs to be done in several years. This study would like to know the compliance of the community in taking medication during MDA periods in Pekalongan district using the health belief model (HBM) approach.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Study population was people living in endemic areas in Pekalongan district, Central Java Province. This was a cross-sectional study. HBM approach was used to analyze community perceived in regard to MDA. There were six of the 19 subdistrict selected as study location, and 100 subjects were selected from each sub-district. Therefore, a total of 600 subjects participated in this study. Data were collected using the structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed quantitatively using the Chi-squared test. Multivariate analysis was used for logistic regression.

RESULTS

Results of this study showed that the mean age of subjects was 38.6 years and had been staying in their villages for more than 30 years. Gender, marital status, history of LF, history of LF in the family, and external cues to action did not relate to MDA compliance. Perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, perceived benefits, and perceived barriers were factors related to the compliance of MDA. After multivariate analysis, the perceived susceptibility did not have relationship with compliance.

CONCLUSION

This study showed HBM variables, ie, perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, perceived benefit, and perceived barrier associated with the medication adherence of LF. The role of elimination officers was important to increase community knowledge about MDA program and the benefit to control LF disease.

Substantiating freedom from parasitic infection by combining transmission model predictions with disease surveys

Stopping interventions is a critical decision for parasite elimination programmes. Quantifying the probability that elimination has occurred due to interventions can be facilitated by combining infection status information from parasitological surveys with extinction thresholds predicted by parasite transmission models. Here we demonstrate how the integrated use of these two pieces of information derived from infection monitoring data can be used to develop an analytic framework for guiding the making of defensible decisions to stop interventions. We present a computational tool to perform these probability calculations and demonstrate its practical utility for supporting intervention cessation decisions by applying the framework to infection data from programmes aiming to eliminate onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis in Uganda and Nigeria, respectively. We highlight a possible method for validating the results in the field, and discuss further refinements and extensions required to deploy this predictive tool for guiding decision making by programme managers.

The decision when to stop an intervention is a critical component of parasite elimination programmes, but reliance on surveillance data alone can be inaccurate. Here, Michael et al. combine parasite transmission model predictions with disease survey data to more reliably determine when interventions can be stopped.

Quantifying the value of surveillance data for improving model predictions of lymphatic filariasis elimination

Background

Mathematical models are increasingly being used to evaluate strategies aiming to achieve the control or elimination of parasitic diseases. Recently, owing to growing realization that process-oriented models are useful for ecological forecasts only if the biological processes are well defined, attention has focused on data assimilation as a means to improve the predictive performance of these models.

Methodology and principal findings

We report on the development of an analytical framework to quantify the relative values of various longitudinal infection surveillance data collected in field sites undergoing mass drug administrations (MDAs) for calibrating three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and for improving their predictions of the required durations of drug interventions to achieve parasite elimination in endemic populations. The relative information contribution of site-specific data collected at the time points proposed by the WHO monitoring framework was evaluated using model-data updating procedures, and via calculations of the Shannon information index and weighted variances from the probability distributions of the estimated timelines to parasite extinction made by each model. Results show that data-informed models provided more precise forecasts of elimination timelines in each site compared to model-only simulations. Data streams that included year 5 post-MDA microfilariae (mf) survey data, however, reduced each model’s uncertainty most compared to data streams containing only baseline and/or post-MDA 3 or longer-term mf survey data irrespective of MDA coverage, suggesting that data up to this monitoring point may be optimal for informing the present LF models. We show that the improvements observed in the predictive performance of the best data-informed models may be a function of temporal changes in inter-parameter interactions. Such best data-informed models may also produce more accurate predictions of the durations of drug interventions required to achieve parasite elimination.

Significance

Knowledge of relative information contributions of model only versus data-informed models is valuable for improving the usefulness of LF model predictions in management decision making, learning system dynamics, and for supporting the design of parasite monitoring programmes. The present results further pinpoint the crucial need for longitudinal infection surveillance data for enhancing the precision and accuracy of model predictions of the intervention durations required to achieve parasite elimination in an endemic location.

Although parasite transmission models offer powerful tools for predicting the impacts of interventions, there is growing realization that these models can be useful for this purpose only if their governing biological processes are well defined. Recently, model-data assimilation has been applied to address this problem and improve the performance of process-oriented models for ecological forecasting. Here, we developed an analytical framework that allowed the sequential coupling of the three existing lymphatic filariasis (LF) models with longitudinal infection monitoring data collected in field sites undergoing mass drug administrations (MDAs) to examine the relative value of such data for parameterizing these models and for improving their predictions of the required durations of drug interventions to break parasite transmission. We found that data-informed models provided more precise and reliable forecasts of elimination timelines in the study sites compared to model-only predictions, and that data collected up to 5 years post-MDA reduced each model’s predictive uncertainty most. We also found that this improved performance may be intriguingly related to temporal changes in system dynamics. Our results underscore the significance of sequential model-data fusion for enhancing the understanding of LF transmission dynamics, design of surveillance, and generation of reliable model predictions for management decision making.

Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework

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No single mathematical model captures all features of parasite transmission dynamics.

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Multi-model ensemble modelling can overcome biases of single models.

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A multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis models is proposed and evaluated.

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The multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models in predicting infection.

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The ensemble approach may improve use of models to inform disease control policy.

Mathematical models of parasite transmission provide powerful tools for assessing the impacts of interventions. Owing to complexity and uncertainty, no single model may capture all features of transmission and elimination dynamics. Multi-model ensemble modelling offers a framework to help overcome biases of single models. We report on the development of a first multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and evaluate its predictive performance in comparison with that of the constituents using calibration and validation data from three case study sites, one each from the three major LF endemic regions: Africa, Southeast Asia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). We assessed the performance of the respective models for predicting the outcomes of annual MDA strategies for various baseline scenarios thought to exemplify the current endemic conditions in the three regions. The results show that the constructed multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models when evaluated across all sites. Single models that best fitted calibration data tended to do less well in simulating the out-of-sample, or validation, intervention data. Scenario modelling results demonstrate that the multi-model ensemble is able to compensate for variance between single models in order to produce more plausible predictions of intervention impacts. Our results highlight the value of an ensemble approach to modelling parasite control dynamics. However, its optimal use will require further methodological improvements as well as consideration of the organizational mechanisms required to ensure that modelling results and data are shared effectively between all stakeholders.

Lymphatic filariasis control in Tanzania: infection, disease perceptions and drug uptake patterns in an endemic community after multiple rounds of mass drug administration

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) control in most countries of sub-Saharan Africa is based on annual mass drug administration (MDA) with a combination of ivermectin and albendazole, in order to interrupt transmission. However, attaining and maintaining high treatment coverage has been a challenge in many LF control programmes. This study was designed to elucidate reasons for continued transmission of LF in an endemic area of Tanga, northeastern Tanzania, where control activities based on MDA had been in place for eight years by the time of this study in 2012.

METHODS

A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in three sentinel villages used for monitoring the impact of MDA on LF transmission. A total of 747 individuals were interviewed, out of which 172 (23.0%), 27 (3.6%) and 49 (6.5%) had been shown to have circulating filarial antigens (CFA), microfilaraemia (MF) and LF gross lesions, respectively, prior to the interviews.

RESULTS

The interviewed population had a mean age of 33.7 years and a male to female ratio of 0.8. Males, individuals aged 30 years and above, peasants/fishermen and recent immigrants to the study communities were significantly more affected (CFA, MF and/ or LF gross lesions) than the other population groups. However, drug uptake rates were not significantly different between LF affected (those with CFA, MF and/ or LF gross lesions) and non-affected individuals. Likewise, drug uptake rates were not significantly different across different demographic parameters of the study population, some of which differed significantly in the level of infection. Moreover, it was found that misconceptions on how LF can be acquired were still evident, linking its transmission to witchcraft, heredity and sexual behaviour.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicated that misconceptions about LF and its transmission still existed despite eight years of control activities in the area. Improved communication on the rationale of MDA and an enhanced drug delivery strategy that is adapted to the local settings and targeting important demographic groups that serve as reservoir of infection will help in reaching the elimination target within a reasonable timeframe.

Economic evaluations of lymphatic filariasis interventions: a systematic review and research needs

In 2000, the World Health Organization established the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF), with the goal of eliminating the disease as a public health problem by 2020. Since the start of the programme, a cumulative total of 6.2 billion treatments have been delivered to affected populations - with more than 556 million people treated in 2015 alone. In this paper, we perform a rigorous systematic review of the economic evaluations of lymphatic filariasis interventions have been conducted. We demonstrate that the standard interventions to control lymphatic filariasis are consistently found to be highly cost-effective. This finding has important implications for advocacy groups and potential funders. However, there are several important inconsistencies and research gaps that need to be addressed as we move forward towards the 2020 elimination goals. One of the most important identified research gaps was a lack of evaluation of new interventions specifically targeting areas co-endemic with onchocerciasis and Loa loa - which could become a major barrier to achieving elimination.

A Synthetic Population for Modelling the Dynamics of Infectious Disease Transmission in American Samoa

Agent-based modelling is a useful approach for capturing heterogeneity in disease transmission. In this study, a synthetic population was developed for American Samoa using an iterative approach based on population census, questionnaire survey and land use data. The population will be used as the basis for a new agent-based model, intended specifically to fill the knowledge gaps about lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination, but also to be readily adaptable to model other infectious diseases. The synthetic population was characterized by the statistically realistic population and household structure, and high-resolution geographic locations of households. The population was simulated over 40 years from 2010 to 2050. The simulated population was compared to estimates and projections of the U.S. Census Bureau. The results showed the total population would continuously decrease due to the observed large number of emigrants. Population ageing was observed, which was consistent with the latest two population censuses and the Bureau's projections. The sex ratios by age groups were analysed and indicated an increase in the proportion of males in age groups 0-14 and 15-64. The household size followed a Gaussian distribution with an average size of around 5.0 throughout the simulation, slightly less than the initial average size 5.6.

Continental-scale, data-driven predictive assessment of eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, in sub-Saharan Africa by 2020

BACKGROUND

There are growing demands for predicting the prospects of achieving the global elimination of neglected tropical diseases as a result of the institution of large-scale nation-wide intervention programs by the WHO-set target year of 2020. Such predictions will be uncertain due to the impacts that spatial heterogeneity and scaling effects will have on parasite transmission processes, which will introduce significant aggregation errors into any attempt aiming to predict the outcomes of interventions at the broader spatial levels relevant to policy making. We describe a modeling platform that addresses this problem of upscaling from local settings to facilitate predictions at regional levels by the discovery and use of locality-specific transmission models, and we illustrate the utility of using this approach to evaluate the prospects for eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in sub-Saharan Africa by the WHO target year of 2020 using currently applied or newly proposed intervention strategies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We show how a computational platform that couples site-specific data discovery with model fitting and calibration can allow both learning of local LF transmission models and simulations of the impact of interventions that take a fuller account of the fine-scale heterogeneous transmission of this parasitic disease within endemic countries. We highlight how such a spatially hierarchical modeling tool that incorporates actual data regarding the roll-out of national drug treatment programs and spatial variability in infection patterns into the modeling process can produce more realistic predictions of timelines to LF elimination at coarse spatial scales, ranging from district to country to continental levels. Our results show that when locally applicable extinction thresholds are used, only three countries are likely to meet the goal of LF elimination by 2020 using currently applied mass drug treatments, and that switching to more intensive drug regimens, increasing the frequency of treatments, or switching to new triple drug regimens will be required if LF elimination is to be accelerated in Africa. The proportion of countries that would meet the goal of eliminating LF by 2020 may, however, reach up to 24/36 if the WHO 1% microfilaremia prevalence threshold is used and sequential mass drug deliveries are applied in countries.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed and applied a data-driven spatially hierarchical computational platform that uses the discovery of locally applicable transmission models in order to predict the prospects for eliminating the macroparasitic disease, LF, at the coarser country level in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in local parasite transmission and extinction dynamics, as well as the exact nature of intervention roll-outs in countries, will impact the timelines to achieving national LF elimination on this continent.

Assessing endgame strategies for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis: A model-based evaluation of the impact of DEC-medicated salt

Concern is growing regarding the prospects of achieving the global elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) by 2020. Apart from operational difficulties, evidence is emerging which points to unique challenges that could confound achieving LF elimination as extinction targets draw near. Diethylcarbamazine (DEC)-medicated salt may overcome these complex challenges posed by the endgame phase of parasite elimination. We calibrated LF transmission models using Bayesian data-model assimilation techniques to baseline and follow-up infection data from 11 communities that underwent DEC salt medication. The fitted models were used to assess the utility of DEC salt treatment for achieving LF elimination, in comparison with other current and proposed drug regimens, during the endgame phase. DEC-medicated salt consistently reduced microfilaria (mf) prevalence from 1% mf to site-specific elimination thresholds more quickly than the other investigated treatments. The application of DEC salt generally required less than one year to achieve site-specific LF elimination, while annual and biannual MDA options required significantly longer durations to achieve the same task. The use of DEC-medicated salt also lowered between-site variance in extinction timelines, especially when combined with vector control. These results indicate that the implementation of DEC-medicated salt, where feasible, can overcome endgame challenges facing LF elimination programs.

Criteria to Stop Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Have Been Achieved Throughout Plateau and Nasarawa States, Nigeria

Nigeria has the largest population at risk for lymphatic filariasis (LF) in Africa. This study used a transmission assessment survey (TAS) to determine whether mass drug administration (MDA) for LF could stop in 21 districts, divided into four evaluation units (EUs), of Plateau and Nasarawa States, Nigeria, after 8-12 years of annual albendazole-ivermectin treatment. A total of 7,131 first- and second-year primary school children (approximately 6-7 years old) were tested for LF antigen by immunochromatographic test (ICT) from May to June 2012. The target sample size of 1,692 was exceeded in each EU (range = 1,767-1,795). A total of 25 (0.4%) individuals were ICT positive, with the number of positives in each EU (range = 3-11) less than the TAS cutoff of 20, meaning that LF transmission had been reduced below sustainable levels. As a result, 3.5 million annual albendazole-ivermectin treatments were halted in 2013. Combined with the previous halt of MDA for LF in other parts of Plateau and Nasarawa, these are the first Nigerian states to stop LF MDA statewide. Posttreatment surveillance is ongoing to determine if LF transmission has been interrupted.

First evidence of lymphatic filariasis transmission interruption in Cameroon: Progress towards elimination

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is among the 10 neglected tropical diseases targeted for control or elimination by 2020. For LF elimination, the World Health Organization (WHO) has proposed a comprehensive strategy including (i) interruption of LF transmission through large-scale annual treatment (or mass drug administration (MDA)) of all eligible individuals in endemic areas, and (ii) alleviation of LF-associated suffering through morbidity management and disability prevention. In Cameroon, once-yearly mass administration of ivermectin and albendazole has been implemented since 2008. The aim of this study was to assess progress towards the elimination goal, looking specifically at the impact of six rounds of MDA on LF transmission in northern Cameroon.

METHODOLOGY

The study was conducted in the North and Far North Regions of Cameroon. Five health districts that successfully completed six rounds of MDA (defined as achieving a treatment coverage ≥ 65% each year) and reported no positive results for Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariaemia during routine surveys following the fifth MDA were grouped into three evaluation units (EU) according to WHO criteria. LF transmission was assessed through a community-based transmission assessment survey (TAS) using an immunochromatographic test (ICT) for the detection of circulating filarial antigen (CFA) in children aged 5-8 years old.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A total of 5292 children (male/female ratio 1.04) aged 5-8 years old were examined in 97 communities. Positive CFA results were observed in 2, 8 and 11 cases, with a CFA prevalence of 0.13% (95% CI: 0.04-0.46) in EU#1, 0.57% (95% CI: 0.32-1.02) in EU#2, and 0.45% (95% CI: 0.23-0.89) in EU#3.

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

The positive CFA cases were below WHO defined critical cut-off thresholds for stopping treatment and suggest that transmission can no longer be sustained. Post-MDA surveillance activities should be organized to evaluate whether recrudescence can occur.

Lymphatic filariasis elimination efforts in Rufiji, southeastern Tanzania: decline in circulating filarial antigen prevalence in young school children after twelve rounds of mass drug administration and utilization of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets

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Interventions based on mass drug administration and insecticide-treated nets led to a marked decline in Wuchereria bancrofti circulating filarial antigen (CFA) in young school children.

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The official reported treatment coverage was relatively higher than the surveyed coverage.

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There has been an increase in ownership and utilization of insecticide-treated nets in the study areas.

Background

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a parasitic infection transmitted by mosquito vectors, and in Sub-Saharan Africa it is caused by the nematode Wuchereria bancrofti. The disease has been targeted for global elimination with the annual mass drug administration (MDA) strategy. Vector control is known to play an important complementary role to MDA in reducing the transmission of LF. The effects of an MDA and insecticide-treated net intervention implemented in an endemic area of southeastern Tanzania are reported here.

Methods

A cross-sectional study assessing W. bancrofti circulating filarial antigen (CFA) was conducted in five primary schools in five different villages. Standard one pupils aged 6–9 years were screened for CFA using immunochromatographic test cards (ICT), with a total of 413 screened in 2012 and 659 in 2015. Just after CFA testing, the children were interviewed on their participation in the MDA campaign. Moreover, 246 heads of households in 2012 and 868 in 2015 were interviewed on their participation in MDA and utilization of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs).

Results

The prevalence of CFA for the 413 children tested in 2012 was 14.3%, while it was 0.0% for the 659 children tested in 2015. The Tanzanian National Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Programme reported annual treatment coverage for Rufiji District ranging from 54.3% to 94.0% during the years 2002–2014. The surveyed treatment was 51.6% in 2011 and 57.4% in 2014. With regard to LLINs, possession and utilization increased from 63.4% and 59.2%, respectively, in 2012, to 92.5% and 75.4%, respectively, in 2015.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that 12 rounds of MDA complemented with vector control through the use of insecticide-treated nets resulted in a marked reduction in W. bancrofti CFA in young school children.

Assessment of lymphatic filariasis prior to re-starting mass drug administration campaigns in coastal Kenya

Background

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating disease associated with extensive disfigurement and is one of a diverse group of diseases referred to as neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) which mainly occur among the poorest populations. In line with global recommendations to eliminate LF, Kenya launched its LF elimination programme in 2002 with the aim to implement annual mass drug administration (MDA) in order to interrupt LF transmission. However, the programme faced financial and administrative challenges over the years such that sustained annual MDA was not possible. Recently, there has been renewed interest to eliminate LF and the Kenyan Ministry of Health, through support from World Health Organization (WHO), restarted annual MDA in 2015. The objective of this study was to evaluate the current status of LF infection in the endemic coastal region of Kenya before MDA campaigns were restarted.

Results

Ten sentinel sites in Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, and Taita-Taveta counties in coastal Kenya were selected for participation in a cross-sectional survey of LF infection prevalence. At least 300 individuals in each sentinel village were sampled through random house-to-house visits. During the day, the point-of-care immunochromatographic test (ICT) was used to detect the presence of Wuchereria bancrofti circulating filarial antigen in finger prick blood samples collected from residents of the selected sentinel villages. Those individuals who tested positive with the ICT test were requested to provide a night-time blood sample for microfilariae (MF) examination. The overall prevalence of filarial antigenaemia was 1.3% (95% CI: 0.9–1.8%). Ndau Island in Lamu County had the highest prevalence (6.3%; 95% CI: 4.1–9.7%), whereas sites in Kilifi and Kwale counties had prevalences < 1.7%. Mean microfilarial density was also higher in Ndau Island (234 MF/ml) compared to sentinel sites in Kwale and Kilifi counties (< 25 MF/ml). No LF infection was detected in Tana River and Taita-Taveta counties. Overall, more than 88% of the study participants reported to have used a bed net the previous night.

Conclusions

Prevalence of LF infection is generally very low in coastal Kenya, but there remain areas that require further rounds of MDA if the disease is to be eliminated as a public health problem in line with the ongoing global elimination efforts. However, areas where there was no evidence of LF transmission should be considered for WHO-recommended transmission assessment surveys in view of stopping MDA.

Understanding the relationship between prevalence of microfilariae and antigenaemia using a model of lymphatic filariasis infection

Background

Lymphatic filariasis is a debilitating neglected tropical disease that affects impoverished communities. Rapid diagnostic tests of antigenaemia are a practical alternative to parasitological tests of microfilaraemia for mapping and surveillance. However the relationship between these two methods of measuring burden has previously been difficult to interpret.

Methods

A statistical model of the distribution of worm burden and microfilariae (mf) and resulting antigenaemic and mf prevalence was developed and fitted to surveys of two contrasting sentinel sites undergoing interventions. The fitted model was then used to explore the relationship in various pre- and post-intervention scenarios.

Results

The model had good quantitative agreement with the data and provided estimates of the reduction in mf output due to treatment. When extrapolating the results to a range of prevalences there was good qualitative agreement with published data.

Conclusions

The observed relationship between antigenamic and mf prevalence is a natural consequence of the relationship between prevalence and intensity of adult worms and mf production. The method described here allows the estimation of key epidemiological parameters and consequently gives insight into the efficacy of an intervention programme.

Application of various control strategies to Japanese encephalitic: A mathematical study with human, pig and mosquito

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a public health problem that threats the entire world today. Japanese Encephalitis virus (JEV) mostly became a threat due to the significant number of increase of susceptible mosquito vectors and vertebrate hosts in Asia by which around 70,000 cases and 10,000 deaths per year took place in children below 15 years of age. In this paper, a mathematical model of JE due to JEV from the vector source (infected mosquito) and two vertebrate hosts (infected human and infected pig) is formulated. The disease can be controlled by applying several control measures such as vaccination, medicine and insecticide to the JE infection causing species. The model has been formulated as an optimal control problem and has been solved using Pontryagin's maximum principle. Also, the stability of the system has been studied with the help of basic reproduction number for disease free and endemic equilibrium. The results of fixed control for endemic equilibrium is presented numerically and depicted graphically. The effects of different control strategies on human, pig and mosquito has been analyzed using Runge-Kutta 4th order forward and backward techniques and presented thereafter graphically.

Mathematical modelling of lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in India: required duration of mass drug administration and post-treatment level of infection indicators

Background

India has made great progress towards the elimination of lymphatic filariasis. By 2015, most endemic districts had completed at least five annual rounds of mass drug administration (MDA). The next challenge is to determine when MDA can be stopped. We performed a simulation study with the individual-based model LYMFASIM to help clarify this.

Methods

We used a model-variant for Indian settings. We considered different hypotheses on detectability of antigenaemia (Ag) in relation to underlying adult worm burden, choosing the most likely hypothesis by comparing the model predicted association between community-level microfilaraemia (Mf) and antigenaemia (Ag) prevalence levels to observed data (collated from literature). Next, we estimated how long MDA must be continued in order to achieve elimination in different transmission settings and what Mf and Ag prevalence may still remain 1 year after the last required MDA round. The robustness of key-outcomes was assessed in a sensitivity analysis.

Results

Our model matched observed data qualitatively well when we assumed an Ag detection rate of 50 % for single worm infections, which increases with the number of adult worms (modelled by relating detection to the presence of female worms). The required duration of annual MDA increased with higher baseline endemicity and lower coverage (varying between 2 and 12 rounds), while the remaining residual infection 1 year after the last required treatment declined with transmission intensity. For low and high transmission settings, the median residual infection levels were 1.0 % and 0.4 % (Mf prevalence in the 5+ population), and 3.5 % and 2.0 % (Ag prevalence in 6–7 year-old children).

Conclusion

To achieve elimination in high transmission settings, MDA must be continued longer and infection levels must be reduced to lower levels than in low-endemic communities. Although our simulations were for Indian settings, qualitatively similar patterns are also expected in other areas. This should be taken into account in decision algorithms to define whether MDA can be interrupted. Transmission assessment surveys should ideally be targeted to communities with the highest pre-control transmission levels, to minimize the risk of programme failure.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1768-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Heterogeneous dynamics, robustness/fragility trade-offs, and the eradication of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis

BACKGROUND

The current WHO-led initiative to eradicate the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), based on single-dose annual mass drug administration (MDA) represents one of the largest health programs devised to reduce the burden of tropical diseases. However, despite the advances made in instituting large-scale MDA programs in affected countries, a challenge to meeting the goal of global eradication is the heterogeneous transmission of LF across endemic regions, and the impact that such complexity may have on the effort required to interrupt transmission in all socioecological settings.

METHODS

Here, we apply a Bayesian computer simulation procedure to fit transmission models of LF to field data assembled from 18 sites across the major LF endemic regions of Africa, Asia and Papua New Guinea, reflecting different ecological and vector characteristics, to investigate the impacts and implications of transmission heterogeneity and complexity on filarial infection dynamics, system robustness and control.

RESULTS

We find firstly that LF elimination thresholds varied significantly between the 18 study communities owing to site variations in transmission and initial ecological parameters. We highlight how this variation in thresholds lead to the need for applying variable durations of interventions across endemic communities for achieving LF elimination; however, a major new result is the finding that filarial population responses to interventions ultimately reflect outcomes of interplays between dynamics and the biological architectures and processes that generate robustness/fragility trade-offs in parasite transmission. Intervention simulations carried out in this study further show how understanding these factors is also key to the design of options that would effectively eliminate LF from all settings. In this regard, we find how including vector control into MDA programs may not only offer a countermeasure that will reliably increase system fragility globally across all settings and hence provide a control option robust to differential locality-specific transmission dynamics, but by simultaneously reducing transmission regime variability also permit more reliable macroscopic predictions of intervention effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results imply that a new approach, combining adaptive modelling of parasite transmission with the use of biological robustness as a design principle, is required if we are to both enhance understanding of complex parasitic infections and delineate options to facilitate their elimination effectively.

Post-Mass Drug Administration Transmission Assessment Survey for Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis in La Ciénaga, Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is one of four remaining countries in the Americas with lymphatic filariasis (LF). Annual mass drug administration (MDA) with albendazole and diethylcarbamazine was conducted in La Ciénaga, an impoverished urban barrio in Santo Domingo, from 2004 to 2006. Eight years after the last MDA, a transmission assessment survey (TAS) was conducted in November-December 2014 to determine if LF transmission remains absent. Of 815 first and second grade primary school students (mean age: 6.51 years; range 5-9) tested by immunochromatographic test (ICT), zero (0.0%) were positive. This is below the TAS critical cutoff of nine, indicating that the area "passed" TAS and that transmission remains interrupted in La Ciénaga. Importantly, this also provides evidence that three rounds of effective (> 65% coverage) MDA, likely aided by environmental improvements and periodic school-based albendazole monotherapy MDA, achieved interruption of LF transmission from a relatively low-transmission setting.

Bayesian calibration of simulation models for supporting management of the elimination of the macroparasitic disease, Lymphatic Filariasis

Background

Mathematical models of parasite transmission can help integrate a large body of information into a consistent framework, which can then be used for gaining mechanistic insights and making predictions. However, uncertainty, spatial variability and complexity, can hamper the use of such models for decision making in parasite management programs.

Methods

We have adapted a Bayesian melding framework for calibrating simulation models to address the need for robust modelling tools that can effectively support management of lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination in diverse endemic settings. We applied this methodology to LF infection and vector biting data from sites across the major LF endemic regions in order to quantify model parameters, and generate reliable predictions of infection dynamics along with credible intervals for modelled output variables. We used the locally calibrated models to estimate breakpoint values for various indicators of parasite transmission, and simulate timelines to parasite extinction as a function of local variations in infection dynamics and breakpoints, and effects of various currently applied and proposed LF intervention strategies.

Results

We demonstrate that as a result of parameter constraining by local data, breakpoint values for all the major indicators of LF transmission varied significantly between the sites investigated. Intervention simulations using the fitted models showed that as a result of heterogeneity in local transmission and extinction dynamics, timelines to parasite elimination in response to the current Mass Drug Administration (MDA) and various proposed MDA with vector control strategies also varied significantly between the study sites. Including vector control, however, markedly reduced the duration of interventions required to achieve elimination as well as decreased the risk of recrudescence following stopping of MDA.

Conclusions

We have demonstrated how a Bayesian data-model assimilation framework can enhance the use of transmission models for supporting reliable decision making in the management of LF elimination. Extending this framework for delivering predictions in settings either lacking or with only sparse data to inform the modelling process, however, will require development of procedures to estimate and use spatio-temporal variations in model parameters and inputs directly, and forms the next stage of the work reported here.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1132-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.