Differential symptomology of possible and confirmed Ebola virus disease infection in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a retrospective cohort study

Rapid Decision Algorithm for Patient Triage during Ebola Outbreaks

The low specificity of Ebola virus disease clinical signs increases the risk for nosocomial transmission to patients and healthcare workers during outbreaks. Reducing this risk requires identifying patients with a high likelihood of Ebola virus infection. Analyses of retrospective data from patients suspected of having Ebola virus infection identified 13 strong predictors and time from disease onset as constituents of a prediction score for Ebola virus disease. We also noted 4 highly predictive variables that could distinguish patients at high risk for infection, independent of their scores. External validation of this algorithm on retrospective data revealed the probability of infection continuously increased with the score.

Urgent considerations for booster vaccination strategies against Ebola virus disease

With two endorsed and prophylactic vaccines against Zaire ebolavirus (referred to hereafter as EBOV), the number of individuals vaccinated against EBOV worldwide is estimated to range between 500 000 and 1 000 000 individuals, increasing with every renewed EBOV threat and vaccination campaign. Therefore, re-exposure of previously vaccinated health-care workers, and possibly community members, could become more frequent. In the absence of long-term data on vaccine efficacy and duration of protection, we urgently need to understand revaccination strategies that could maximise the level of protection. In this Personal View, we highlight the scarcity of available evidence to guide revaccination recommendations for the accumulating groups of previously vaccinated communities or front-line health-care workers that could be redeployed or re-exposed in the next EBOV outbreak(s). This evidence base is crucial to identify optimal target populations and the frequency of booster doses, and guide vaccine interchangeability (especially in settings with limited or unpredictable vaccine supplies), while preventing vaccine mistrust, equity concerns, and exclusion of vulnerable populations. We discuss five priority gaps (to whom, when, and how frequently, to provide booster doses; long-term correlates and thresholds of protection; the effect of vector-directed immunity and viral variant protection; comparative research in mix-and-match schedules; and implementation concerns) that should be urgently tackled to adapt the initial EBOV prophylactic vaccination strategies considering potential booster dose vaccinations.

Ebola disease outbreak caused by the Sudan virus in Uganda, 2022: a descriptive epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Uganda has had seven Ebola disease outbreaks, between 2000 and 2022. On Sept 20, 2022, the Ministry of Health declared a Sudan virus disease outbreak in Mubende District, Central Uganda. We describe the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics.

METHODS

For this descriptive study, cases were classified as suspected, probable, or confirmed using Ministry of Health case definitions. We investigated all reported cases to obtain data on case-patient demographics, exposures, and signs and symptoms, and identified transmission chains. We conducted a descriptive epidemiological study and also calculated basic reproduction number (Ro) estimates.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 8 and Nov 27, 2022, 164 cases (142 confirmed, 22 probable) were identified from nine (6%) of 146 districts. The median age was 29 years (IQR 20-38), 95 (58%) of 164 patients were male, and 77 (47%) patients died. Symptom onsets ranged from Aug 8 to Nov 27, 2022. The case fatality rate was highest in children younger than 10 years (17 [74%] of 23 patients). Fever (135 [84%] of 160 patients), vomiting (93 [58%] patients), weakness (89 [56%] patients), and diarrhoea (81 [51%] patients) were the most common symptoms; bleeding was uncommon (21 [13%] patients). Before outbreak identification, most case-patients (26 [60%] of 43 patients) sought care at private health facilities. The median incubation was 6 days (IQR 5-8), and median time from onset to death was 10 days (7-23). Most early cases represented health-care-associated transmission (43 [26%] of 164 patients); most later cases represented household transmission (109 [66%]). Overall Ro was 1·25.

INTERPRETATION

Despite delayed detection, the 2022 Sudan virus disease outbreak was rapidly controlled, possibly thanks to a low Ro. Children (aged <10 years) were at the highest risk of death, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to improve their outcomes during Ebola disease outbreaks. Initial care-seeking occurred at facilities outside the government system, showing a need to ensure that private and public facilities receive training to identify possible Ebola disease cases during an outbreak. Health-care-associated transmission in private health facilities drove the early outbreak, suggesting gaps in infection prevention and control.

FUNDING

None.

Time to care and factors influencing appropriate Sudan virus disease care among case patients in Uganda, September to November 2022

OBJECTIVES

Early isolation and care for Ebola disease patients at Ebola Treatment Units (ETU) curb outbreak spread. We evaluated time to ETU entry and associated factors during the 2022 Sudan virus disease (SVD) outbreak in Uganda.

METHODS

We included persons with RT-PCR-confirmed SVD with onset September 20-November 30, 2022. We categorized days from symptom onset to ETU entry ("delays") as short (≤2), moderate (3-5), and long (≥6); the latter two were "delayed isolation." We categorized symptom onset timing as "earlier" or "later," using October 15 as a cut-off. We assessed demographics, symptom onset timing, and awareness of contact status as predictors for delayed isolation. We explored reasons for early vs late isolation using key informant interviews.

RESULTS

Among 118 case-patients, 25 (21%) had short, 43 (36%) moderate, and 50 (43%) long delays. Seventy-five (64%) had symptom onset later in the outbreak. Earlier symptom onset increased risk of delayed isolation (crude risk ratio = 1.8, 95% confidence interval (1.2-2.8]). Awareness of contact status and SVD symptoms, and belief that early treatment-seeking was lifesaving facilitated early care-seeking. Patients with long delays reported fear of ETUs and lack of transport as contributors.

CONCLUSION

Delayed isolation was common early in the outbreak. Strong contact tracing and community engagement could expedite presentation to ETUs.

Derivation and Internal Validation of a Mortality Prognostication Machine Learning Model in Ebola Virus Disease Based on Iterative Point-of-Care Biomarkers

Background

Although multiple prognostic models exist for Ebola virus disease mortality, few incorporate biomarkers, and none has used longitudinal point-of-care serum testing throughout Ebola treatment center care.

Methods

This retrospective study evaluated adult patients with Ebola virus disease during the 10th outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ebola virus cycle threshold (Ct; based on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction) and point-of-care serum biomarker values were collected throughout Ebola treatment center care. Four iterative machine learning models were created for prognosis of mortality. The base model used age and admission Ct as predictors. Ct and biomarkers from treatment days 1 and 2, days 3 and 4, and days 5 and 6 associated with mortality were iteratively added to the model to yield mortality risk estimates. Receiver operating characteristic curves for each iteration provided period-specific areas under curve with 95% CIs.

Results

Of 310 cases positive for Ebola virus disease, mortality occurred in 46.5%. Biomarkers predictive of mortality were elevated creatinine kinase, aspartate aminotransferase, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), alanine aminotransferase, and potassium; low albumin during days 1 and 2; elevated C-reactive protein, BUN, and potassium during days 3 and 4; and elevated C-reactive protein and BUN during days 5 and 6. The area under curve substantially improved with each iteration: base model, 0.74 (95% CI, .69-.80); days 1 and 2, 0.84 (95% CI, .73-.94); days 3 and 4, 0.94 (95% CI, .88-1.0); and days 5 and 6, 0.96 (95% CI, .90-1.0).

Conclusions

This is the first study to utilize iterative point-of-care biomarkers to derive dynamic prognostic mortality models. This novel approach demonstrates that utilizing biomarkers drastically improved prognostication up to 6 days into patient care.

Ebola outbreak in Guinea, 2021: Clinical care of patients with Ebola virus disease

Background

Experience from the Zaire Ebolavirus epidemic in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (2018-2020) demonstrates that early initiation of essential critical care and administration of Zaire Ebolavirus specific monoclonal antibodies may be associated with improved outcomes among patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD).

Objectives

This series describes 13 EVD patients and 276 patients with suspected EVD treated during a Zaire Ebolavirus outbreak in Guinea in 2021.

Method

Patients with confirmed or suspected EVD were treated in two Ebola treatment centres (ETC) in the region of N'zérékoré. Data were reviewed from all patients with suspected or confirmed EVD hospitalised in these two ETCs during the outbreak (14 February 2021 - 19 June 2021). Ebola-specific monoclonal antibodies, were available 2 weeks after onset of the outbreak.

Results

Nine of the 13 EVD patients (age range: 22-70 years) survived. The four EVD patients who died, including one pregnant woman, presented with multi-organ dysfunction and died within 48 h of admission. All eight patients who received Ebola-specific monoclonal antibodies survived. Four of the 13 EVD patients were health workers. Improvement of ETC design facilitated implementation of WHO-recommended 'optimized supportive care for EVD'. In this context, pragmatic clinical training was integrated in routine ETC activities. Initial clinical manifestations of 13 confirmed EVD patients were similar to those of 276 patients with suspected, but subsequently non confirmed EVD. These patients suffered from other acute infections (e.g. malaria in 183 of 276 patients; 66%). Five of the 276 patients with suspected EVD died. One of these five patients had Lassa virus disease and a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) co-infection.

Conclusion

Multidisciplinary outbreak response teams can rapidly optimise ETC design. Trained clinical teams can provide WHO-recommended optimised supportive care, including safe administration of Ebola-specific monoclonal antibodies. Pragmatic training in essential critical care can be integrated in routine ETC activities.

Contribution

This article describes clinical realities associated with implementation of WHO-recommended standards of 'optimized supportive care' and administration of Ebola virus specific treatments. In this context, the importance of essential design principles of ETCs is underlined, which allow continuous visual contact and verbal interaction of health workers and families with their patients. Elements that may contribute to further quality of care improvements for patients with confirmed or suspected EVD are discussed.