Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis: comparison with other scoring systems in predicting severity and organ failure

Predictive value of the Ranson and BISAP scoring systems for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

To systematically assess and compare the predictive value of the Ranson and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring systems for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were systematically searched until February 15, 2023. Outcomes in this analysis included severity and prognosis [mortality, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission]. The revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool was used to evaluate the quality of diagnostic accuracy studies. The threshold effect was evaluated for each outcome. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve (AUC) as well as 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The DeLong test was used for AUC comparisons. For the outcome evaluated by over 9 studies, publication bias was assessed using the Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test.

RESULTS

Totally 17 studies of 5476 AP patients were included. For severity, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.98) and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.92); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.74 (0.52, 0.88) and 0.95 (95%CI: 0.85, 0.98); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.93, 0.97) and 0.94 (95%CI: 0.92, 0.96) (P = 0.480). For mortality, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.89 (95%CI: 0.73, 0.96) and 0.77 (95%CI: 0.58, 0.89); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.79 (95%CI: 0.68, 0.87) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.86, 0.93); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.91 (95%CI: 0.88, 0.93) and 0.92 (95%CI: 0.90, 0.94) (P = 0.480). For organ failure, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76, 0.90) and 0.78 (95%CI: 0.60, 0.90); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.63, 0.94) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.97); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.82, 0.88) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.93) (P = 0.110). For pancreatic necrosis, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.63 (95%CI: 0.35, 0.84) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.23, 0.90); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.90 (95%CI: 0.77, 0.96) and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.89, 0.96); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.87 (95%CI: 0.84, 0.90) and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.91, 0.95) (P = 0.001). For ICU admission, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.77, 0.92) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.52, 0.73); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.58 (95%CI: 0.55, 0.61) and 0.84 (95%CI: 0.81, 0.86); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.92 (95%CI: 0.81, 1.00) and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.67, 1.00) (P = 0.592).

CONCLUSION

The Ranson score was an applicable tool for predicting severity and prognosis of AP patients with reliable diagnostic accuracy in resource and time-limited settings. Future large-scale studies are needed to verify the findings.

Updated Review of Radiologic Imaging and Intervention for Acute Pancreatitis and Its Complications

This is a current update on radiologic imaging and intervention of acute pancreatitis and its complications. In this review, we define the various complications of acute pancreatitis, discuss the imaging findings, as well as the timing of when these complications occur. The various classification and scoring systems of acute pancreatitis are summarized. Advantages and disadvantages of the 3 primary radiologic imaging modalities are compared. We then discuss radiologic interventions for acute pancreatitis. These include diagnostic aspiration as well as percutaneous catheter drainage of fluid collections, abscesses, pseudocysts, and necrosis. Recommendations for when these interventions should be considered, as well as situations in which they are contraindicated are discussed. Fortunately, acute pancreatitis usually is mild; however, serious complications occur in 20%, and admission of patients to the intensive care unit (ICU) occurs in over 10%. In this paper, we will focus on the imaging and interventional radiologic aspects for the serious complications and patients admitted to the ICU.

Real-time artificial intelligence predicts adverse outcomes in acute pancreatitis in the emergency department: Comparison with clinical decision rule

OBJECTIVE

Artificial intelligence (AI) prediction is increasingly used for decision making in health care, but its application for adverse outcomes in emergency department (ED) patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) is not well understood. This study aimed to clarify this aspect.

METHODS

Data from 8274 ED patients with AP in three hospitals from 2009 to 2018 were analyzed. Demographic data, comorbidities, laboratory results, and adverse outcomes were included. Six algorithms were evaluated, and the one with the highest area under the curve (AUC) was implemented into the hospital information system (HIS) for real-time prediction. Predictive accuracy was compared between the AI model and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP).

RESULTS

The mean ± SD age was 56.1 ± 16.7 years, with 67.7% being male. The AI model was successfully implemented in the HIS, with Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) showing the highest AUC for sepsis (AUC 0.961) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission (AUC 0.973), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) showing the highest AUC for mortality (AUC 0.975). Compared to BISAP, the AI model had superior AUC for sepsis (BISAP 0.785), ICU admission (BISAP 0.778), and mortality (BISAP 0.817).

CONCLUSIONS

The first real-time AI prediction model implemented in the HIS for predicting adverse outcomes in ED patients with AP shows favorable initial results. However, further external validation is needed to ensure its reliability and accuracy.

Acute pancreatitis: A review of diagnosis, severity prediction and prognosis assessment from imaging technology, scoring system and artificial intelligence

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially life-threatening inflammatory disease of the pancreas, with clinical management determined by the severity of the disease. Diagnosis, severity prediction, and prognosis assessment of AP typically involve the use of imaging technologies, such as computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and ultrasound, and scoring systems, including Ranson, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and Bedside Index for Severity in AP scores. Computed tomography is considered the gold standard imaging modality for AP due to its high sensitivity and specificity, while magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasound can provide additional information on biliary obstruction and vascular complications. Scoring systems utilize clinical and laboratory parameters to classify AP patients into mild, moderate, or severe categories, guiding treatment decisions, such as intensive care unit admission, early enteral feeding, and antibiotic use. Despite the central role of imaging technologies and scoring systems in AP management, these methods have limitations in terms of accuracy, reproducibility, practicality and economics. Recent advancements of artificial intelligence (AI) provide new opportunities to enhance their performance by analyzing vast amounts of clinical and imaging data. AI algorithms can analyze large amounts of clinical and imaging data, identify scoring system patterns, and predict the clinical course of disease. AI-based models have shown promising results in predicting the severity and mortality of AP, but further validation and standardization are required before widespread clinical application. In addition, understanding the correlation between these three technologies will aid in developing new methods that can accurately, sensitively, and specifically be used in the diagnosis, severity prediction, and prognosis assessment of AP through complementary advantages.

Severe Acute Pancreatitis Prediction: A Model Derived From a Prospective Registry Cohort

Background Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) has a mortality rate as high as 40%. Early identification of SAP is required to appropriately triage and direct initial therapies. The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model that identifies patients at risk for developing SAP of patients managed according to a guideline-based standardized early medical management (EMM) protocol. Methods This single-center study included all patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis (AP) and managed with the EMM protocol Methodist Acute Pancreatitis Protocol (MAPP) between April 2017 and September 2022. Classification and regression tree (CART®; Professional Extended Edition, version 8.0; Salford Systems, San Diego, CA), univariate, and logistic regression analyses were performed to develop a scoring system for AP severity prediction. The accuracy of the scoring system was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results A total of 516 patients with mild (n=436) or moderately severe and severe (n=80) AP were analyzed. CART analysis identified the cutoff values: creatinine (CR) (1.15 mg/dL), white blood cells (WBC) (10.5 × 109/L), procalcitonin (PCT) (0.155 ng/mL), and systemic inflammatory response system (SIRS). The prediction model was built with a multivariable logistic regression analysis, which identified CR, WBC, PCT, and SIRS as the main predictors of severity. When CR and only one other predictor value (WBC, PCT, or SIRS) met thresholds, then the probability of predicting SAP was >30%. The probability of predicting SAP was 72% (95%CI: 0.59-0.82) if all four of the main predictors were greater than the cutoff values. Conclusions Baseline laboratory cutoff values were identified and a logistic regression-based prognostic model was developed to identify patients treated with a standardized EMM who were at risk for SAP.

Modified Bedside Index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score validation in the national inpatient sample database

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to build and validate modified score to be used in the healthcare cost and utilization project databases for further classification of acute pancreatitis (AP).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The National Inpatient Sample database for the years 2016-2019 was queried for all primary adult discharge diagnoses of AP. An mBISAP score system was created utilizing the ICD-10CM codes for pleural effusion, encephalopathy, acute kidney injury, systemic inflammatory response, and age >60. Each was assigned a 1-point score. A multivariable regression analysis was built to test for mortality. Sensitivity and specificity analyses were performed for mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 1,160,869 primary discharges for AP were identified between 2016 and 2019. The pooled mortality rate was: 0.1%, 0.5%, 2.9%, 12.7%, 30.9% and 17.8% (P ​< ​0.01), respectively for scores 0 to 5. Multivariable regression analysis showed increasing odds of mortality with each one-point increment: mBISAP score of 1 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 6.67; 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.69-9.48), score of 2 (aOR 37.87; 95% CI 26.05- 55.03), score of 3 (aOR 189.38; 95% CI 127.47-281.38), score of 4 (aOR 535.38; 95% CI 331.74-864.02), score of 5 (aOR 184.38; 95% CI 53.91-630.60). Using a cut-off of ≥3, sensitivity and specificity analyses reported 27.0% and 97.7%, respectively, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.811.

CONCLUSION

In this 4-year retrospective study of a US representative database, an mBISAP score was constructed showing increasing odds of mortality with each 1-point increase and a specificity of 97.7% for a cut-off of ≥3.

Decreased HDL-C Levels as a Predictor of Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is reported as a biomarker of systemic inflammation and multi-organ failure (MOF), which has been rarely investigated in acute pancreatitis (AP), a frequent condition in the emergency department (ED). The objective was to study the predictive capacity of the decrease in HDL-C to the progression of MOF in AP in the ED; analyzing 114 patients with AP for one year in a longitudinal and prospective study, AP severity was obtained by the Atlanta classification, in relation to modified Marshall and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scores, and clinical and laboratory parameters in a 48 h hospital stay. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to estimate the validity of the predictor and define optimal cut-off points. It was found that AP was classified as severe in 24.5%, mainly for biliary etiology (78.9%) and female sex (73.6%). As a biomarker, HDL-C decreased from 31.6 to 29.5 mg/dL in a 48 h stay (p < 0.001), correlating negatively with the increase in severity index > 2 and the modified Marshall (p < 0.032) and BISAP (p < 0.009) scores, finding an area under the ROC curve with a predictive capacity of 0.756 (95% CI, 0.614-0.898; p < 0.004) and a cut-off point of 28.5 mg/dL (sensitivity: 79%, specificity: 78%), demonstrating that the decrease in HDL-C levels serves as a useful indicator with a predictive capacity for MOF in mild to severe AP, during a 48 h hospital stay in the ED.

A New Risk Score to Predict Intensive Care Unit Admission for Patients with Acute Pancreatitis 48 Hours After Admission: Multicenter Study

AIMS

The objective of this study was to develop and validate an easy-to-use risk score (APRS) to predict which patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) will need intensive care unit (ICU) treatment within 48 h post-hospitalization on the basis of the ubiquitously available clinical records.

METHODS

Patients with acute pancreatitis were retrospectively included from three independent institutions (RM cohort, 5280; TJ cohort, 262; SN cohort, 196), with 56 candidate variables collected within 48 h post-hospitalization. The RM cohort was randomly divided into a training set (N = 4220) and a test set (N = 1060). The most predictive features were extracted by LASSO from the RM cohort and entered into multivariate analysis. APRS was constructed using the coefficients of the statistically significant variables weighted by the multivariable logistic regression model. The APRS was validated by RM, TJ, and SN cohorts. The C-statistic was employed to evaluate the APRS's discrimination. DeLong test was used to compare area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) differences.

RESULTS

A total of 5738 patients with AP were enrolled. Eleven variables were selected by LASSO and entered into multivariate analysis. APRS was inferred using the above five factors (pleural effusion, ALT/AST, ALB/GLB, urea, and glucose) weighted by their regression coefficients in the multivariable logistic regression model. The C-statistics of APRS were 0.905 (95% CI 0.82-0.98) and 0.889 (95% CI 0.81-0.96) in RM and TJ validation. An online APRS web-based calculator was constructed to assist the clinician to earlier assess the clinical outcomes of patients with AP.

CONCLUSION

APRS could effectively stratify patients with AP into high and low risk of ICU admission within 48 h post-hospitalization, offering clinical value in directing management and personalize therapeutic selection for patients with AP.

Pancreatitis aguda: puntos clave. Revisión argumentativa de la literatura

Introducción. La pancreatitis aguda es una condición gastrointestinal común que se asocia a una importante morbimortalidad. Se estima que su incidencia es de 34 por cada 100.000 habitantes, afecta principalmente a adultos a partir de la sexta década de la vida y en nuestra región es debida en la mayoría de los casos a cálculos biliares. Métodos. Se hizo una revisión de los aspectos fundamentales de esta patología, común y potencialmente mortal. Resultados. El diagnóstico requiere del hallazgo de manifestaciones clínicas, aumento de las enzimas pancreáticas en suero y, en ocasiones, el uso de imágenes diagnósticas. Se puede clasificar en leve, moderada y severa, lo cual es fundamental para determinar la necesidad de tratamiento y vigilancia en una unidad de cuidados intensivos. Conclusión. En la actualidad los pilares de manejo de la pancreatitis aguda son la terapia temprana con líquidos, tratamiento del dolor, inicio precoz de la vía oral y resolución del factor etiológico desencadenante. En presencia de complicaciones o un curso severo de enfermedad, pueden requerirse manejo antibiótico e intervenciones invasivas.

Acute pancreatitis due to hypertriglyceridemia: Plasmapheresis versus medical treatment

OBJECTIVE

Hypertriglyceridemia (HTG) is the third-most common cause of acute pancreatitis. Plasmapheresis is an extracorporeal treatment method used for treatment. This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of medical treatment and plasmapheresis in patients with acute pancreatitis due to HTG.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cross-sectional study. The patients were divided into two groups according to the treatment they received as those who received only medical treatment and those who performed plasmapheresis with medical treatment. According to the treatment received by the patients; clinical, demographic, and laboratory data, Ranson scores, and bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) scores, decrease in triglyceride levels in 24 h, length of hospital stay, and outcomes were recorded.

RESULTS

Forty-seven patients were included in the study. The level of triglyceride decreases at the 24^th h was 59.7% ±17.3% in those who received medical treatment and was 70.4% ±15.1% in those who received plasmapheresis (P = 0.032). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to predict the need for plasmapheresis treatment, area under the curve (AUC) value of the triglyceride level was the highest (AUC: 0.822, 95% confidence interval: [0.703-0.940]; P < 0.001), the sensitivity and specificity were 83.3% and 72.4%, respectively, and the cut-off value of triglyceride was accepted as 3079.5 mg/dL.

CONCLUSION

Plasma triglyceride levels and BISAP score on admission may help physicians to predict the need for plasmapheresis. Plasmapheresis helps to rapidly reduce triglyceride levels in patients with HTG-associated acute pancreatitis.

Prediction of severe pancreatitis in a population with low atmospheric oxygen pressure

To establish the severity of pancreatitis, there are many scoring systems, the most used are the Marshall and APACHE II systems, each one has advantages and disadvantages; but with good relation regarding mortality and prediction of complications. In populations with low barometric pressures produced by a decrease in atmospheric pressure, there is a decrease in partial pressure of oxygen, in these cases scores which take arterial oxygen partial pressure as one of their variables, may be overestimated. A diagnostic trial study was designed to evaluate the performance of APACHE II, Marshall and BISAP in a city 2640 m above sea level. A ROC analysis was performed to estimate the AUC of each of the scores, to evaluate the performance in predicting unfavorable outcomes (defined as the need for percutaneous drainage, surgery, or mortality) and a non-parametric comparison was made between the AUC of each of the scores with the DeLong test. From January 2018 to December 2019, data from 424 patients living in Bogota, with a diagnosis of gallstone pancreatitis was collected consecutively in a hospital in Bogota, Colombia. The ROC analysis showed AUC for predicting adverse outcomes for APACHE II in 0.738 (95% CI 0.647-0.829), Marshall in 0.650 (95% CI 0.554-0.746), and BISAP in 0.744 (95% CI 0.654-0.835). The non-parametric comparison to assess whether there were differences between the different AUC of the different scores showed that there is a statistically significant difference between Marshall and BISAP AUC to predict unfavorable outcomes (p=0.032). The mortality in the group of patients studied was 5.8%. We suggest the use of BISAP to predict clinical outcomes in patients with a diagnosis of biliary pancreatitis in populations with decreased atmospheric pressure because it is an easy-to-use tool and does not require arterial oxygen partial pressure for its calculation.

Prognosis in acute pancreatitis associated with HIV infection

BACKGROUND

This prospective study compared scoring systems in predicting adverse outcomes in HIV associated acute pancreatitis (HIV+ve AP) METHODS: Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), Glasgow criteria, C-reactive protein (CRP), bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) and APACHE II scores using standard cut-off values were used to predict the endpoint of moderate and severe disease in HIV-ve and HIV+ve patients and in CD4 counts above and below 200 cells/mm³.

RESULTS

Ninety (38%) of 238 patients with AP were HIV+ve. Fifteen had organ failure, 33 local complications and 12 patients died. Advanced age was not associated with severe disease. The APACHE II was the best predictor of severe disease in HIV+ve (AUC 0.88) and HIV-ve patients (AUC 0.81) and CRP was the poorest predictor (AUC 0.59) in HIV+ve patients. In HIV+ve patients with CD4 counts greater and less than 200 cells/mm³ the Glasgow and APACHE II scores were the best prognosticators (AUC > 0.8) and BISAP in patients with CD4 > 200 cells/mm³ (AUC 0.90).

CONCLUSION

The APACHE II score was most effective irrespective of HIV status whereas the BISAP scores was better in CD4 > 200 cells/mm³.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio as an Early Predictor of Complication and Mortality Outcomes in Individuals With Acute Pancreatitis at a UK District General Hospital: A Retrospective Analysis

Aim

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive usefulness of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and establish a threshold for the prediction of poor outcomes.

Methods

For this investigation, we looked back at all cases of acute pancreatitis treated at Torbay Hospital in Torquay, UK, between January 1st, 2019, and December 31st, 2020. Those who were found to have chronic pancreatitis or whose baseline laboratory values could not be obtained were not included. Each patient’s entire hospital stay was analyzed, including up to 72 hours of medical and laboratory data.

Results

According to the Glasgow Coma Scale scoring system, 28 of the 314 included patients had severe acute pancreatitis, and 81 patients had pancreatitis with complications. Those with complications had a substantially higher NLR on day 1 (9.43 ± 7.57) than patients who recovered without complications (7.37 ± 5.88) (P-value = 0.028). The NLR on day 0 (>18.71) exhibited a sensitivity of 80%, a specificity of 90.2%, and an accuracy of 83.9% in forecasting the death of patients with pancreatitis.

Conclusion

Elevated baseline NLR corresponds with pancreatitis with complications and can predict mortality.

Combination of the BISAP Score and miR-155 is Applied in Predicting the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

Purpose

To evaluate the predictive value of combination of Bedside Index for Severity in AP (BISAP) score and miR-155 for the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP).

Patients and Methods

A total of 1046 AP patients were divided into control group and case group according to the severity of AP [mild and moderately severe AP vs severe AP (SAP)]. Demographic data, comorbidities, clinical characteristics and laboratory data were collected. Multivariate analysis was conducted for the variables with two-sided P<0.10 in univariate analysis to identify independent associated factors for progression to SAP in AP patients. The predictive values were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the area under curve (AUC) was compared using Z test.

Results

A total of 117 (11.2%) patients were evaluated as SAP. Univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in age, hypertension, ICU admission, hospital stay, Leukocytes, CRP, BUN, BISAP score and miR-155 between case group and control group (P<0.05), and the P value of Fibrinogen was <0.10. Multivariate analysis showed that the BISAP score, BUN, Leukocytes, age and CRP were independent risk factors for progression to SAP among AP patients after adjusting for hypertension, ICU admission, hospital stay and Fibrinogen, while miR-155 was a protective factor. The ROC curves demonstrated the AUCs of BISAP score, miR-155 and their combination were 0.842 (SE: 0.017, 95% CI: 0.809–0.874), 0.751 (SE: 0.022, 95% CI: 0.708–0.793) and 0.945 (SE: 0.007, 95% CI: 0.931–0.959), respectively. Z test showed that the AUC of combination prediction was significantly higher than that of individual predictions (0.945 vs 0.842, Z=5.602, P<0.001; 0.945 vs 0.751, Z=8.403, P<0.001). The sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value (NPV) of combination prediction were 95.7%, 93.6% and 99.4%, respectively.

Conclusion

The combination of the BISAP score and miR-155 should be utilized to elevate the predictive value for the severity of AP in clinic.

Interventional strategies in infected necrotizing pancreatitis: Indications, timing, and outcomes

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is one of the most common gastrointestinal diseases and remains a life-threatening condition. Although AP resolves to restitutio ad integrum in approximately 80% of patients, it can progress to necrotizing pancreatitis (NP). NP is associated with superinfection in a third of patients, leading to an increase in mortality rate of up to 40%. Accurate and early diagnosis of NP and associated complications, as well as state-of-the-art therapy are essential to improve patient prognoses. The emerging role of endoscopy and recent trials on multidisciplinary management of NP established the “step-up approach”. This approach starts with endoscopic interventions and can be escalated to other interventional and ultimately surgical procedures if required. Studies showed that this approach decreases the incidence of new multiple-organ failure as well as the risk of interventional complications. However, the optimal interventional sequence and timing of interventional procedures remain controversial. This review aims to summarize the indications, timing, and treatment outcomes for infected NP and to provide guidance on multidisciplinary decision-making.

Blood Urea Nitrogen as a Prognostic Marker in Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Objectives

To explore independent risk factors with good and early predictive power for SAP severity and prognosis.

Methods

Patients with SAP were enrolled at Central South University Xiangya Hospital between April 2017 and May 2021 and used as the training cohort. From June 2021 to February 2022, all patients with SAP were defined as external patients for validation. Patients were grouped by survival status at a 30-day posthospital admission and then compared in terms of basic information and laboratory tests to screen the independent risk factors.

Results

A total of 249 patients with SAP were enrolled in the training cohort. The all-cause mortality rate at a 30-day postadmission was 25.8% (51/198). Blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels were significantly higher in the mortality group (20.45 [interquartile range (IQR), 19.7] mmol/L) than in the survival group (6.685 [IQR, 6.3] mmol/L; P < 0.001). After propensity score matching (PSM), the BUN level was still higher in the mortality group than in the survival group (18.415 [IQR, 19.555] mmol/L vs. 10.63 [IQR, 6.03] mmol/L; P = 0.005). The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of BUN was 0.820 (95% confidence interval, 0.721–0.870; P < 0.001). The optimal BUN level cut-off for predicting a 30-day all-cause mortality was 10.745 mmol/L. Moreover, patients with SAP were grouped according to BUN levels and stratified according to optimal cut-off value. Patients with high BNU levels were associated with significantly higher rates of invasive mechanical ventilation (before PSM: 61.8% vs. 20.6%, P < 0.001; after PSM: 71.1% vs. 32%, P = 0.048) and a 30-day all-cause mortality (before PSM: 44.9% vs. 6.9%, P < 0.001; after PSM: 60% vs. 34.5%, P = 0.032) than those with low BNU levels before or after PSM. The effectiveness of BUN as a prognostic marker was further validated using ROC curves for the external validation set (n = 49). The AUC of BUN was 0.803 (95% CI, 0.655–0.950; P = 0.011). It showed a good ability to predict a 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with SAP. We also observed similar results regarding disease severity, including the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (before PSM: 16 [IQR, 8] vs. 8 [IQR, 6], P < 0.001; after PSM: 18 [IQR, 10] vs. 12 [IQR, 7], P < 0.001), SOFA score (before PSM: 7 [IQR, 5] vs. 3 [IQR, 3], P < 0.001; after PSM: 8 [IQR, 5] vs. 5 [IQR, 3.5], P < 0.001), and mMarshall score (before PSM: 4 [IQR, 3] vs. 3 [IQR, 1], P < 0.001; after PSM: 5 [IQR, 2.5] vs. 3 [IQR, 1], P < 0.001). There was significant increase in intensive care unit occupancy in the high BUN level group before PSM (93.3% vs. 73.1%, P < 0.001), but not after PSM (97.8% vs. 86.2%, P = 0.074).

Conclusions

Our results showed that BUN levels within 24 h after hospital admission were independent risk factors for a 30-day all-cause death in patients with SAP.

Early diagnosis of serum sICAM-1 and sRAGE in severe acute pancreatitis, and efficacy and prognosis prediction of glutamine combined with ulinastatin

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common gastrointestinal disease that can become severe, so that intensive care may be required. This study was to examine serum soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), and soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGE) for efficacy and prognosis prediction of glutamine (Glu) combined with ulinastatin (UTI) on severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Fifty-four mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) patients admitted to Yidu Central Hospital of Weifang were selected as the MAP group (MAPG), 80 with SAP were divided as the SAP group (SAPG), and 60 healthy individuals who came to Yidu Central Hospital of Weifang for physical examination during the same period were included to the normal group (NG). Serum sICAM-1 and sRAGE were measured and their predictive value of efficacy and prognosis were analyzed. In view of the treatment effectiveness and prognosis, the patients were divided into effective group (EG) and ineffective group (IG), good prognosis group (GPG) and poor prognosis group (PPG). The levels of D-lactate, diamine oxidase (DAO), endotoxin and T-lymphocyte subsets (CD3⁺, CD4⁺, CD8⁺ and CD4⁺/CD8⁺) were measured and the changes before and after treatment were analyzed. The AUC values of NG and MAPG, NG and SAPG, MAPG and SAPG were 0.857, 0.939 and 0.856, respectively, those of predicting efficacy were 0.920 and 0.874, respectively, and those of poor prognosis in the SAPG were 0.914 and 0.879, respectively. In the SAPG, D-lactate, DAO, endotoxin and CD8⁺ decreased markedly after treatment, but CD3⁺, CD4⁺, and CD4⁺/CD8⁺ were opposite. SICAM-1 and sRAGE were also independent risk factors for poor prognosis in the SAPG. Serum sICAM-1 and sRAGE have high predictive value for early diagnosis, efficacy and prognosis of Glu combined with UTI.

Predictive values of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio as an early indicator for severe acute pancreatitis in the emergency department patients

CONTEXT:

Acute pancreatitis is an acute inflammatory disease presenting with a wide range of severity.

AIMS:

We investigated the predictive values of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as an indicator for severe acute pancreatitis in the emergency department patients.

SETTINGS AND DESIGN:

This retrospective study was conducted on patients with acute pancreatitis who were diagnosed in the emergency department, from January 2008 to December 2017.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS:

Patients were classified into either mild-to-moderate severe group or severe group according to the Revised Atlanta Classification for Acute Pancreatitis. Clinical features and laboratory blood test parameters were considered as independent variables.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED:

Independent variables were analyzed using the Chi-square test and Mann–Whitney U-test to determine statistically significant differences between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic analysis were performed to evaluate the predictive values of significantly different variables.

RESULTS:

Of the 672 patients, 52 (7.7%) were classified into the severe group. Tachycardia, fever, prevalence of liver cirrhosis and chronic alcoholism, white blood cell count, NLR, C-reactive protein (CRP), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, aspartate transaminase, and total bilirubin were significantly higher in the severe group. Among them, NLR (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.081–1.181), CRP (aOR: 1.011; 95% CI: 1.004–1.017), BUN (aOR: 1.036; 95% CI: 1.004–1.069), and creatinine (aOR: 1.703; 95% CI: 1.008–2.877) were significant in the logistic regression analysis. NLR showed relatively high sensitivity (82.7%) and specificity (70%) and showed the highest area under the curve (0.821).

CONCLUSIONS:

The increase in NLR was associated with severe acute pancreatitis. NLR is expected to be useful as a prognostic factor in patients with acute pancreatitis who are visiting the emergency department.

Prevention of Severe Acute Pancreatitis With Cyclooxygenase-2 Inhibitors: A Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial

OBJECTIVES

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is still a big challenge. Accumulated data showed that overexpression of cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) in acute pancreatitis and experimental pancreatitis could be attenuated with COX-2 inhibitors. This study was aimed to evaluate whether the occurrence of SAP could be prevented by selective COX-2 inhibitors.

METHODS

A total of 190 patients with predicted SAP were randomized into convention group or convention plus COX-2 inhibitors (C+COX-2-Is) group. Besides conventional treatment to all patients in 2 groups, parecoxib (40 mg/d intravenous injection for 3 days) and celecoxib (200 mg oral or tube feeding twice daily for 7 days) were sequentially administrated to the patients in the C+COX-2-Is group. The primary outcome was predefined as the occurrence of SAP. The serum levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) for all of the patients were measured.

RESULTS

The occurrence of SAP in the C+COX-2-Is group was decreased 47.08% compared with the convention group, 21.05% (20/95) vs 39.78% (37/93), P = 0.005. A reduction of late local complications was also shown in the C+COX-2-Is group, 18.95% (18/93) vs 34.41% (32/95), P = 0.016. The serum levels of IL-6 and TNF-α were significantly lower in the C+COX-2-Is group than those in the convention group, P < 0.05. Parecoxib relieved abdominal pain more rapidly and decreased the consumption of meperidine. An incremental reduction of cost for 1% decrease of SAP occurrence was RMB475.

DISCUSSION

Sequential administration of parecoxib and celecoxib in patients with predicted SAP obtained about half-reduction of SAP occurrence through decreasing serum levels of TNF-α and IL-6. This regimen presented good cost-effectiveness.

Comparison of Different Scoring Systems in Predicting the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Observational Study

Background

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory condition of the pancreas mostly due to alcohol or gallstones. Various scoring systems were involved in identifying the severity of the disease. The standard single score to identifying the severity remains uncertain.

Methodology

This prospective observational study was carried out for two years in a tertiary care center from South India. The diagnosis of AP was made based on Atlanta criteria, and a total of 164 patients were included. All patients were assessed by acute physiology and chronic health evaluation ll (APACHE II), bedside index for severity in AP (BISAP), modified Glasgow score (MGS), and Ranson score on admission and 48 hours after admission scores. Procalcitonin was done in all patients with AP. Contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) of the abdomen was done in 69 patients who had features of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and diagnostic accuracy were calculated for each score, and procalcitonin for CT documented severe patients and organ failure patients together.

Results

A total of 164 patients were included in this study. CT abdomen showed a modified CT severity index (MCSI) ≥8 in all 69 (100%) patients. APACHE II score could predict SAP based on CT findings in 44 patients (63.76%), BISAP score in 22 patients (31.88%), MGS in 55 patients (79.71%), Ranson score at admission in 31 patients (44.92%), Ranson score 48 hours after admission in 44 patients (63.76%), and procalcitonin on admission in 69 patients (100%) when cut-off used as per the literature. APACHE II score could predict SAP in cases of AP (n=164) in 52 patients (50%), BISAP score in 27 patients (26%), MGS in 79 patients (76%), Ranson score at admission in 34 patients (33%), and Ranson score 48 hours after admission in 61 (59%) patients when cut-off was used as per the literature. This study demonstrated that Ranson score on admission had a good area under the curve (AUC). AUC (0.8483), APACHE II (AUC 0.7708), and Ranson score 48 hours after admission (AUC 0.8167) had a fair accuracy. BISAP (AUC 0.6399) and MGS (AUC 0.6486) had poor accuracy for the prediction of severity in AP based on receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves.

Conclusion

Among the scoring system compared, MGS had the highest sensitivity for predicting the severity of AP. However, Ranson score on admission had better diagnostic accuracy for predicting severity, organ failure, and mortality based on ROC curves. Procalcitonin had the best sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and diagnostic accuracy for association with severity in AP.

Multifactorial Scores and Biomarkers of Prognosis of Acute Pancreatitis: Applications to Research and Practice

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a severe inflammation of the pancreas presented with sudden onset and severe abdominal pain with a high morbidity and mortality rate, if accompanied by severe local and systemic complications. Numerous studies have been published about the pathogenesis of AP; however, the precise mechanism behind this pathology remains unclear. Extensive research conducted over the last decades has demonstrated that the first 24 h after symptom onset are critical for the identification of patients who are at risk of developing complications or death. The identification of these subgroups of patients is crucial in order to start an aggressive approach to prevent mortality. In this sense and to avoid unnecessary overtreatment, thereby reducing the financial implications, the proper identification of mild disease is also important and necessary. A large number of multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers are described to predict the severity. Despite recent progress in understanding the pathophysiology of AP, more research is needed to enable a faster and more accurate prediction of severe AP. This review provides an overview of the available multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers for predicting severe AP with a special focus on their advantages and limitations.

A Comparison of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II Score and Serum Procalcitonin Change for Predicting Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis

Introduction

The prediction of mortality in acute pancreatitis (AP) is a useful estimate for effective treatment. Scoring systems such as acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II, computed tomography (CT) severity index (CTSI), bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), etc., are used for prediction. Biomarkers like C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) are also considered useful for prognostication. The aim of this retrospective study was to correlate the changes in serum PCT level with APACHE II score between admission and 48 hours as mortality predictor in AP.

Materials and methods

The observational study was conducted in a cohort of 42 patients admitted consecutively in the seven-bedded general intensive care unit (ICU) of our institute between June 2016 and May 2018, with the diagnosis of AP. The APACHE II score and serum PCT level at admission and 48 hours were retrieved from the hospital database. The change in APACHE II and PCT level was compared between ICU “survivors” and “nonsurvivors.” The predictive accuracy of APACHE II and PCT was measured using area under receiver–operator characteristics (ROC) curve. A p value <0.05 was considered as significant.

Results

Of the 42 patients enrolled, 30 patients (71.42%) were survivors and 12 (28.58%) were nonsurvivors. The median APACHE II score in nonsurvivors increased from 16 (7–19) to 23 (11–29) and remained unchanged at 16 (9–19 at admission; 10–22 at 48 hours) in survivors. The median PCT levels increased from 3.8 (1.2–5.6) to 6.2 (1.9–12.5) in nonsurvivors and decreased from 3.8 (1.2–5.6) to 2.2 (0.6–2.9) in survivors. Serum PCT change compared better than the APACHE II score change among survivors (r = 0.455, p = 0.011) with a mean (±standard deviation SD) change of 1.41 (±1.59).

Conclusion

The change in serum PCT and APACHE II between admission and 48 hours correlates well and is useful for mortality prediction in AP. Serum PCT change compares better than APACHE II score change in survivors.

How to cite this article

Choudhuri AH, Duggal S, Biswas PS, Uppal R. A Comparison of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II Score and Serum Procalcitonin Change for Predicting Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis. Indian J Crit Care Med 2020;24(3):190–194.

Computed Tomography Severity Index vs. Other Indices in the Prediction of Severity and Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis: A Predictive Accuracy Meta-analysis

Background: The management of the moderate and severe forms of acute pancreatitis (AP) with necrosis and multiorgan failure remains a challenge. To predict the severity and mortality of AP multiple clinical, laboratory-, and imaging-based scoring systems are available. Aim: To investigate, if the computed tomography severity index (CTSI) can predict the outcomes of AP better than other scoring systems. Methods: A systematic search was performed in three databases: Pubmed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. Eligible records provided data from consecutive AP cases and used CTSI or modified CTSI (mCTSI) alone or in combination with other prognostic scores [Ranson, bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Acute Physiology, and Chronic Health Examination II (APACHE II), C-reactive protein (CRP)] for the evaluation of severity or mortality of AP. Area under the curves (AUCs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated and aggregated with STATA 14 software using the metandi module. Results: Altogether, 30 studies were included in our meta-analysis, which contained the data of 5,988 AP cases. The pooled AUC for the prediction of mortality was 0.79 (CI 0.73-0.86) for CTSI; 0.87 (CI 0.83-0.90) for BISAP; 0.80 (CI 0.72-0.89) for mCTSI; 0.73 (CI 0.66-0.81) for CRP level; 0.87 (CI 0.81-0.92) for the Ranson score; and 0.91 (CI 0.88-0.93) for the APACHE II score. The APACHE II scoring system had significantly higher predictive value for mortality than CTSI and CRP (p = 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively), while the predictive value of CTSI was not statistically different from that of BISAP, mCTSI, CRP, or Ranson criteria. The AUC for the prediction of severity of AP were 0.80 (CI 0.76-0.85) for CTSI; 0.79, (CI 0.72-0.86) for BISAP; 0.83 (CI 0.75-0.91) for mCTSI; 0.73 (CI 0.64-0.83) for CRP level; 0.81 (CI 0.75-0.87) for Ranson score and 0.80 (CI 0.77-0.83) for APACHE II score. Regarding severity, all tools performed equally. Conclusion: Though APACHE II is the most accurate predictor of mortality, CTSI is a good predictor of both mortality and AP severity. When the CT scan has been performed, CTSI is an easily calculable and informative tool, which should be used more often in routine clinical practice.

Acute Pancreatitis Task Force on Quality: Development of Quality Indicators for Acute Pancreatitis Management

INTRODUCTION

Detailed recommendations and guidelines for acute pancreatitis (AP) management currently exist. However, quality indicators (QIs) are required to measure performance in health care. The goal of the Acute Pancreatitis Task Force on Quality was to formally develop QIs for the management of patients with known or suspected AP using a modified version of the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology.

METHODS

A multidisciplinary expert panel composed of physicians (gastroenterologists, hospitalists, and surgeons) who are acknowledged leaders in their specialties and who represent geographic and practice setting diversity was convened. A literature review was conducted, and a list of proposed QIs was developed. In 3 rounds, panelists reviewed literature, modified QIs, and rated them on the basis of scientific evidence, bias, interpretability, validity, necessity, and proposed performance targets.

RESULTS

Supporting literature and a list of 71 proposed QIs across 10 AP domains (Diagnosis, Etiology, Initial Assessment and Risk Stratification, etc.) were sent to the expert panel to review and independently rate in round 1 (95% of panelists participated). Based on a round 2 face-to-face discussion of QIs (75% participation), 41 QIs were classified as valid. During round 3 (90% participation), panelists rated the 41 valid QIs for necessity and proposed performance thresholds. The final classification determined that 40 QIs were both valid and necessary.

DISCUSSION

Hospitals and providers managing patients with known or suspected AP should ensure that patients receive high-quality care and desired outcomes according to current evidence-based best practices. This physician-led initiative formally developed 40 QIs and performance threshold targets for AP management. Validated QIs provide a dependable quantitative framework for health systems to monitor the quality of care provided to patients with known or suspected AP.

2019 WSES guidelines for the management of severe acute pancreatitis

Although most patients with acute pancreatitis have the mild form of the disease, about 20-30% develops a severe form, often associated with single or multiple organ dysfunction requiring intensive care. Identifying the severe form early is one of the major challenges in managing severe acute pancreatitis. Infection of the pancreatic and peripancreatic necrosis occurs in about 20-40% of patients with severe acute pancreatitis, and is associated with worsening organ dysfunctions. While most patients with sterile necrosis can be managed nonoperatively, patients with infected necrosis usually require an intervention that can be percutaneous, endoscopic, or open surgical. These guidelines present evidence-based international consensus statements on the management of severe acute pancreatitis from collaboration of a panel of experts meeting during the World Congress of Emergency Surgery in June 27-30, 2018 in Bertinoro, Italy. The main topics of these guidelines fall under the following topics: Diagnosis, Antibiotic treatment, Management in the Intensive Care Unit, Surgical and operative management, and Open abdomen.

The early prognostic value of inflammatory markers in patients with acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic markers with the more mature scoring system BISAP in patients with AP and identify the best predictors.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analysed the data of patients with AP who were treated in our hospital from January 2017 to March 2018 and compared the prognostic value of these inflammation-based prognostic markers with the BISAP score in patients with AP.

RESULTS

Higher BISAP score, NLR, PLR, ACC, and BUN gradually increased (all P < 0.05), and lower LMR and TC (P < 0.001) were associated with severity of AP. Compared with the patients without persistent organ failure, the patients with POF were older (P = 0.049) and had a higher BISAP score (P < 0.001), NLR (P = 0.003), PLR (P < 0.001) and ACC (P = 0.047), BUN (P = 0.011), and creatinine (P = 0.023), RDW (P = 0.021), but lower LMR (P = 0.003) and TC (P < 0.001) at baseline. The BISAP score (OR = 2.117, 95% CI 1.487 to 3.016, P < 0.001), NLR (OR = 1.053, 95% CI: 1.009 to 1.101, P = 0.019) and TC (OR = 0.088, 95% CI: 0.024 to 1.030, P < 0.001) were independent factors for predicting SAP. For predicting the occurrence of POF, TC and PLR had an area under the ROC curve (TC AUC = 0.784, P < 0.001, with a 2.18 cut-off value, PLR AUC = 0.731, P < 0.001, with a 173.13 cut-off value) that was not inferior to the BISAP score (AUC = 0.708), and PLR had the best sensitivity (95.8%), BUN had the best specificity (44.71%), respectively. There is no difference in their predictive value for POF.

CONCLUSIONS

NLR and TC are the most powerful markers in this patient series, they have a prognostic value which is not weaker than BISAP, and are equally simple, rapid.

Serum apolipoprotein B-to-apolipoprotein A1 ratio is independently associated with disease severity in patients with acute pancreatitis

Early identification of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is critical for clinical decision-making. The apolipoprotein B-to-apolipoprotein A1 ratio (ApoB/A1 ratio) reflects the balance between pro-inflammation and anti-inflammation in vivo. This study investigated the association between serum ApoB/A1 ratio at admission and acute pancreatitis (AP) severity. A total of 375 patients with first attack of AP were retrospectively recruited from January 2014 to December 2017. The severity of AP was assessed at admission based on the 2012 revised Atlanta Classification. Serum lipids levels were tested on the first 24 h of hospitalization, of which the correlations with clinical features or scoring systems were also measured. The ApoB/A1 ratio markedly increased across disease severity of AP. The ApoB/A1 ratio, expressed as both quartile and continuous variables, was significantly associated with a high risk of SAP, even after adjustment for other conventional SAP risk factors. The ApoB/A1 ratio positively correlated with the revised 2012 Atlanta Classification, Ranson score, Bedside Index for Severity in AP score, Modified Computed Tomography Severity Index score, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score for AP severity. The optimal cut-off value of ApoB/A1 ratio for detecting SAP was 0.88, with a sensitivity of 83.08% and a specificity of 69.03%. Serum ApoB/A1 ratio at admission is closely correlated with disease severity in patients with AP and can serve as a reliable indicator for SAP in clinical setting.

Pancreatic necrosis: Complications and changing trend of treatment

Incidence of acute pancreatitis seems to be increasing in the Western countries and has been associated with significantly increased morbidity. Nearly 80% of the patients with acute pancreatitis undergo resolution; some develop complications including pancreatic necrosis. Infection of pancreatic necrosis is the leading cause of death in these patients. A significant portion of these patients needs surgical interventions. Traditionally, the “gold standard” procedure has been the open surgical necrosectomy, which is now being completed by the relatively lesser invasive interventions. Minimally invasive surgical (MIS) procedures include endoscopic drainage, percutaneous image-guided catheter drainage, and retroperitoneal drainage. This review article discusses the open and MIS interventions for pancreatic necrosis with each having its own respective benefits and disadvantages are covered.

How Would You Treat This Patient With Gallstone Pancreatitis?: Grand Rounds Discussion From Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center

Acute pancreatitis, a common cause of hospitalization in the United States, is often the result of biliary tract disease. In 2016, the American Gastroenterological Association released a guideline that addresses the practical considerations in managing acute pancreatitis within the first 72 hours after the patient presents. The guideline specifically recommends goal-directed hydration therapy, early enteral feeding, judicious use of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), and gallbladder surgery during the index admission for patients with mild pancreatitis. The authors discuss their approach to these interventions in the context of a patient with recurrent acute pancreatitis who chooses to delay surgery until after hospital discharge. They address hydration and timing of surgery, as well as how they would manage the patient's preferences in the face of existing guidelines.

Concordance of the Balthazar Grade and the Revised Atlanta Classification: Proposing a Modified Balthazar Grade to Predict the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis in Pediatric Population

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to compare the concordance of the Balthazar grade and the revised Atlanta classification and then establish a modified radiological scoring system that would predict 3 degrees of severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) based on the latest Atlanta classification.

METHODS

A retrospective study enrolling pediatric inpatients with AP who had completed computed tomography was conducted between January 2006 and March 2018. The concordance of the 2 radiological scoring systems was assessed with κ statistic.

RESULTS

The Balthazar grade was unable to accurately predict the severity of AP compared with the revised Atlanta classification. However, a modified Balthazar grading system defining patents with Balthazar grades A to C as mild, grade D as moderately, and grade E as severe presented perfect agreement with the revised Atlanta classification across the enrolled population (κ, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.97). The concordance of the modified Balthazar score and the revised Atlanta classification remained a perfect degree of agreement across repeated tests in 90 random samples (κ, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.85).

CONCLUSIONS

The modified Balthazar grade demonstrated perfect agreement with the latest Atlanta classification for AP severity scoring. As such, the modified Balthazar grade can be used to predict 3 degrees of severity of AP.

Red cell distribution width and red cell distribution width to total serum calcium ratio as major predictors of severity and mortality in acute pancreatitis

Background

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Current severity scores include multiple variables and some of them are only complete within 48 h of admission. Red cell distribution width (RDW) is a simple and routine parameter that seems to be related to inflammatory status. Our aims were to evaluate the diagnostic value of RDW in severity and mortality of AP comparing with other prognostic scoring systems.

Methods

Retrospective case-control study of a total of 312 patients with AP admitted between 2014 and 2016. Patients with severe AP (cases) were compared with patients with mild AP (controls) in the 1:1 proportion. Additionally, a comparison between survivor and nonsurvivor AP patients was performed. Diagnosis and severity of AP were defined according to the revised Atlanta classification 2012. Variables evaluated included demographics, comorbidities, hospital stay, laboratorial parameters, arterial blood gas analysis, prognostic scores within 24 h of admission (Ranson, BISAP and Modified Marshall) and mortality.

Results

Included 91 cases of severe AP, most males (58.2% vs 51.6%; p = 0.228) with mean age of 64.8 ± 16.3 years (vs 67.9 ± 13.7; p = 0.239). RDW_0h was higher in patients with severe AP (14.6 ± 1.3 vs 12.7 ± 0.5; p < 0.001), as well as RDW_0h-to-serum calcium ratio (1.8 ± 0.3 vs 1.3 ± 0.1; p < 0.001). After multivariate and ROC curve analysis, RDW_0h (AUROC: 0.960; p < 0.001) and RDW_0h-to-serum calcium ratio (AUROC: 0.973; p < 0.001) were the major predictors of severe AP for a cut-off value of 13.0 (S: 92.7%; Sp: 84.3%) and 1.4 (S: 96.3%; Sp: 84.3%), respectively. These factors were superior to prognostic scores, such as Ranson (AUROC: 0.777; p < 0.001; cut-off: 3.0), BISAP (AUROC: 0.732; p < 0.001; cut-off: 2.0) and Modified Marshall (AUROC: 0.756; p < 0.001; cut-off: 1.0). The mortality rate was 8.8% (16/182), all cases associated with severe AP (17.6%; 16/91). RDW_0h and RDW_0h-to-serum calcium ratio were higher in nonsurvivor AP patients (15.3 ± 1.4 vs 13.5 ± 1.3; p < 0.001 and 2.0 ± 0.3 vs 1.6 ± 0.3; p < 0.001, respectively). In multivariate and ROC curve analysis, RDW_0h (AUROC: 0.842; p < 0.001; cut-off: 14.0), RDW_24h (AUROC: 0.848; p < 0.001; cut-off: 13.8) and RDW_0h-to-serum calcium ratio (AUROC: 0.820; p < 0.001; cut-off: 1.7) were independent predictors for AP mortality, superior to conventional prognostic scoring systems Ranson (AUROC: 0.640; p = 0.003; cut-off:3.0), BISAP (AUROC: 0.693; p = 0.017; cut-off: 2.0) and Modified Marshall (AUROC: 0.806; p < 0.001; cut-off:1.0).

Conclusions

RDW is a simple routine parameter, available at admission. This AP cohort showed that RDW_0h > 13.0 and RDW_0h-to-total serum calcium ratio > 1.4 were excellent predictors for severity and RDW_0h > 14.0 and RDW_0h-to-total serum calcium ratio > 1.7 were very-good predictors for mortality, being superior to conventional prognostic scoring systems.

Evaluation of the BISAP scoring system in prognostication of acute pancreatitis - A prospective observational study

INTRODUCTION

Severe acute pancreatitis has a high mortality and its early identification is important for management and risk stratification. The bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) is a simple scoring system done at admission which predicts the severity of pancreatitis. Procalcitonin is an inflammatory marker which is raised very early and helps in early prediction of the severity of disease. This study aims to evaluate the BISAP score and Procalcitonin in prognostication of acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

A prospective observational study of 60 patients presenting with acute pancreatitis was done at XXX Medical College and Hospital from July 2015 to June 2016. BISAP, APACHE-II, Ranson criteria, and CT severity index (CTSI) of all patients were calculated. Procalcitonin card test was done for all patients. The patients were stratified according by BISAP score and procalcitonin positivity into categories of severe pancreatitis, organ failure and pancreatic necrosis, as well as the number of deaths. The comparison of BISAP with other scoring systems, Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), hematocrit, and body mass index (BMI) was done by the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) to prediction of severe acute pancreatitis, organ failure, necrosis, and death.

RESULTS

Of the 60 patients, 14 (23.3%) developed severe acute pancreatitis, 11 (18.3%) Organ failure, 21 (35%) pancreatic necrosis and 7 (11.6%) died. A BISAP score of ≥3 was a statistically significant cutoff value. AUCs for predicting severe pancreatitis and death of BISAP were 0.875 and 0.740respectively, similar to those for Ranson criteria (0.802, 0.763) and APACHE-II (0.891, 0.769) and greater than AUCs for CTSI (0.641, 0.554). The AUC for prediction of organ failure were 0.906, 0.833, 0.874 and 0.623 for BISAP, Ranson criteria, APACHE-II, and CTSI respectively. AUCs for PCT predicting severity, organ failure, and death were 0.940, 0.923 and 0.769 respectively were similar to BISAP but greater than those for CRP (0.755, 0.719, 0.693), hematocrit (0.540, 0.570, 0.550), and BMI (0.493, 0.523, 0.497).

CONCLUSION

The BISAP predicts severity, organ failure and death, in acute pancreatitis very well.It is as good as APACHE-II but better than Ranson criteria, CTSI, CRP, hematocrit, and BMI. PCT is a promising inflammatory marker with prediction rates similar to BISAP.

Comparison of Various Scoring Systems and Biochemical Markers in Predicting the Outcome in Acute Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

Early risk assessment is important in acute pancreatitis (AP). The primary objective of this study was to compare various scores and biochemical markers done on the day of admission in predicting the outcome.

METHODS

Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data of patients presenting within 2 weeks of onset were collected. Various scores were calculated and biochemical markers were measured on the day of admission. Optimum cutoffs were identified through receiver operating curve analysis. Multivariate analysis was used to identify predictors of outcome.

RESULTS

Of 343 patients included, 202 (59%) were male; mean (SD) age was 38.7 (15.5) years. Acute pancreatitis was severe in 170 (49.6%) patients. Twenty-eight percent of the patients developed infected pancreatic necrosis and 18% died. An Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score of at least 7, bedside index for severity of AP (BISAP) of at least 2, systemic inflammatory response syndrome score of at least 3, and C-reactive protein of at least 82 ng/mL predicted severity. Predictors of infected pancreatic necrosis were as follows: PANC 3 score of at least 1, BISAP score of at least 2, and Marshall score of at least 2, whereas C-reactive protein of greater than 98, BISAP score of at least 2, APACHE score of at least 10, and a blood urea nitrogen of at least 17 predicted mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Both BISAP and APACHE II are comparable in predicting outcome, but BISAP predicted all 3 outcomes with the same cutoff and hence is a robust scoring system.

The predictive value of C-reactive protein (CRP) in acute pancreatitis - is interval change in CRP an additional indicator of severity?

BACKGROUND

Using revised Atlanta classification defined outcomes, we compare absolute values in C-reactive protein (CRP), with interval changes in CRP, for severity stratification in acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

A retrospective study of all first incidence AP was conducted over a 5-year period. Interval change in CRP values from admission to day 1, 2 and 3 was compared against the absolute values. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve and likelihood ratios (LRs) were used to compare ability to predict severe and mild disease.

RESULTS

337 cases of first incidence AP were included in our analysis. ROC curve analysis demonstrated the second day as the most useful time for repeat CRP measurement. A CRP interval change >90 mg/dL at 48 h (+LR 2.15, -LR 0.26) was equivalent to an absolute value of >150 mg/dL within 48 h (+LR 2.32, -LR 0.25). The optimal cut-off for absolute CRP based on new, more stringent definition of severity was >190 mg/dL (+LR 2.72, -LR 0.24).

CONCLUSION

Interval change in CRP is a comparable measure to absolute CRP in the prognostication of AP severity. This study suggests a rise of >90 mg/dL from admission or an absolute value of >190 mg/dL at 48 h predicts severe disease with the greatest accuracy.

The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis: a systematic review of prospective studies to determine predictive performance

Background: predicting the development of severe disease has remained a major challenge in management of acute pancreatitis. The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) is easy to calculate from the data available in the first 24 hours. Here, we performed a systematic review to determine the prognostic accuracy of the BISAP for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Methods: major databases of biomedical publications were searched during the first week of October 2015. Two independent reviewers searched records in two phases. Studies that reported prognostic accuracy of the BISAP for SAP from prospective cohorts were included. The pooled area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was calculated. Results: Twelve studies were included for data-synthesis and methodology quality assessment was performed for 10. All the studies had enrolled consecutive patients, had a broad spectrum of the disease severity, reported explicit interpretation of the predictor, outcome of interest was well defined and had adequate follow-up. Blinded outcome assessment was reported in only one study. The pooled AUC was 0.85 (95% CI 0.80-0.90). There was significant heterogeneity, I2 86.6%. Studies using revised Atlanta classification in defining SAP had a pooled AUC of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.90-0.95), but heterogeneity persisted, I2 67%. Subgroup analysis based on rate of SAP (>20% vs <20%) did not eliminate the heterogeneity. Conclusion: the BISAP has very good predictive performance for SAP across different patient population and etiologies. Studies to evaluate the impact of incorporating the BISAP into clinical practice to improve outcome in acute pancreatitis are needed before adoption could be advocated with confidence.

The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis: a systematic review of prospective studies to determine predictive performance

Background: predicting the development of severe disease has remained a major challenge in management of acute pancreatitis. The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) is easy to calculate from the data available in the first 24 hours. Here, we performed a systematic review to determine the prognostic accuracy of the BISAP for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Methods: major databases of biomedical publications were searched during the first week of October 2015. Two independent reviewers searched records in two phases. Studies that reported prognostic accuracy of the BISAP for SAP from prospective cohorts were included. The pooled area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was calculated. Results: Twelve studies were included for data-synthesis and methodology quality assessment was performed for 10. All the studies had enrolled consecutive patients, had a broad spectrum of the disease severity, reported explicit interpretation of the predictor, outcome of interest was well defined and had adequate follow-up. Blinded outcome assessment was reported in only one study. The pooled AUC was 0.85 (95% CI 0.80-0.90). There was significant heterogeneity, I² 86.6%. Studies using revised Atlanta classification in defining SAP had a pooled AUC of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.90-0.95), but heterogeneity persisted, I² 67%. Subgroup analysis based on rate of SAP (>20% vs <20%) did not eliminate the heterogeneity. Conclusion: the BISAP has very good predictive performance for SAP across different patient population and etiologies. Studies to evaluate the impact of incorporating the BISAP into clinical practice to improve outcome in acute pancreatitis are needed before adoption could be advocated with confidence.

BISAP, RANSON, lactate and others biomarkers in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis in a European cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The study aims to assess and compare the predicting ability of some scores and biomarkers in acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

We prospectively collected data from 269 patients diagnosed of acute pancreatitis, admitted to Virgen de las Nieves University Hospital between June 2010 and June 2012. Blood urea nitrogen (BUN), C-reactive protein, and creatinine were measured on admission and after 48 h, lactate and bedside index for severity acute pancreatitis (BISAP) only on admission and RANSON within the first 48 h. Definitions from 2012 Atlanta Classification were used. Area under the curve (AUC) was calculated for each scoring system for predicting severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), mortality, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission, obtaining optimal cut-off values from the receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

Eight (3%) patients died, 17 (6.3%) were classified as SAP, and 10 (3.7%) were admitted in ICU. BISAP was the best predictor on admission for SAP, mortality, and ICU admission with an AUC of 0.9 (95% CI 0.83-0.97); 0.97 (95% CI 0.95-0.99); and 0.89 (95% CI 0.79-0.99), respectively. After 48 h, BUN 48 h was the best predictor of SAP (AUC = 0.96 CI: 0.92-0.99); BUN 48 h and BISAP were the best predictors for mortality (AUC = 0.97 CI: 0.95-0.99) and creatinine 48 h for ICU admission (AUC = 0.96 CI: 0.92-0.99). Lactate showed an AUC of 0.79 (CI: 0.71-0.88), 0.87 (CI: 0.78-0.96), and 0.77 (CI: 0.67-0.87) for SAP, mortality, and ICU admission, respectively. All parameters were predictors for SAP, mortality, and ICU admission, but C-reactive protein on admission was only a significant predictor of SAP.

CONCLUSION

Bedside index for severity acute pancreatitis is a good predictive system for SAP, mortality, and ICU admission, being useful for triaging patients for ICU management. Lactate could be useful for developing new scores.

Prognostic value of admission red blood cell distribution width in acute pancreatitis: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) has been proved to be a strong prognostic marker in various diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, renal failure, viral hepatitis etc. But its prognostic value in acute pancreatitis (AP) remains controversial. The aim of this systematic review is to determine the prognostic value of RDW in AP.

METHODS

PubMed, Cochrane, Google scholar, and Web of Science were searched on March 2, 2017 to identify studies that investigated the association between RDW and the prognosis of AP. The eligible studies were reviewed and summarized.

RESULTS

In total, 2008 articles were screened. Seven studies were included in the final analysis. Five studies estimated the prognostic value of RDW using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and multivariable analysis was performed in only four studies. The major design weaknesses of eligible studies are their retrospective design and some of potential confounding factors were not adjusted.

CONCLUSIONS

Current evidence and findings support that high admission RDW can be used as a biomarker to identify the AP patients who are at high risk of mortality. However, due to the weaknesses of available studies, further well-designed studies with large sample size and various outcome endpoints are needed to rigorously evaluate the prognostic value of RDW in AP.

Severity and outcomes of acute alcoholic pancreatitis in cannabis users

BACKGROUND

Cannabis is the most commonly and widely used illicit drug in the world and is also the most commonly used drug of abuse in alcohol drinkers. Experimental studies have shown conflicting results of the effects of cannabis on the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). The purpose of this study is to ascertain the clinical effects of simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use on severity at presentation and outcomes of acute alcoholic pancreatitis (AAP).

METHODS

A retrospective review was conducted on the patients discharged with principle or secondary diagnosis of AP using ICD-9 & ICD-10 codes during the time period from January 2006 to December 2015 at a large community-based hospital in Central Georgia. Patients with alcoholic pancreatitis with cannabis (CB+) and without cannabis (CB-) use were identified and were matched with sex and age.

RESULTS

Our study findings showed that a greater percentage of CB+ patients did not have a systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score (P=0.043), had a lower BISAP score (P=0.031), and had a significantly lower BUN level (P=0.033), but there was no difference in the Balthazar Index and revised Atlanta classification severity between the two groups. CB+ patients tended to need less ICU care than CB- patients (P=0.059).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our findings, we found that CB+ patients had less severe presentation of AAP indicating that cannabis could modulate the inflammatory effect of alcohol on the pancreas. Further large scale prospective studies are needed to confirm our results.

Care of Acute Gastrointestinal Conditions in the Observation Unit

The Emergency Department Observation Unit (EDOU) provides a viable alternative to inpatient admission for the management of many acute gastrointestinal conditions with additional opportunities of reducing resource utilization and reducing radiation exposure. Using available evidence-based criteria to determine appropriate patient selection, evaluation, and treatment provides higher-quality medical care and improved patient satisfaction. Discussions of factors involved in creating an EDOU capable of caring for acute gastrointestinal conditions and clinical protocol examples of acute appendicitis, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, and acute pancreatitis provide a framework from which a successful EDOU can be built.

Serum C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lactate dehydrogenase for the diagnosis of pancreatic necrosis

BACKGROUND

The treatment of people with pancreatic necrosis differs from that of people with oedematous pancreatitis. It is important to know the diagnostic accuracy of serum C-reactive protein (CRP), serum procalcitonin, and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) as a triage test for the detection of pancreatic necrosis in people with acute pancreatitis, so that an informed decision can be made as to whether the person with pancreatic necrosis needs further investigations such as computed tomography (CT) scan or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan and treatment for pancreatic necrosis started. There is currently no standard clinical practice, although CRP, particularly an increasing trend of CRP, is often used as a triage test to determine whether the person requires further imaging. There is also currently no systematic review of the diagnostic test accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH for the diagnosis of pancreatic necrosis in people with acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the diagnostic accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, or LDH (index test), either alone or in combination, in the diagnosis of necrotising pancreatitis in people with acute pancreatitis and without organ failure.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR HTA and DARE), and other databases until March 2017. We searched the references of the included studies to identify additional studies. We did not restrict studies based on language or publication status, or whether data were collected prospectively or retrospectively. We also performed a 'related search' and 'citing reference' search in MEDLINE and Embase.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all studies that evaluated the diagnostic test accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH for the diagnosis of pancreatic necrosis in people with acute pancreatitis using the following reference standards, either alone or in combination: radiological features of pancreatic necrosis (contrast-enhanced CT or MRI), surgeon's judgement of pancreatic necrosis during surgery, or histological confirmation of pancreatic necrosis. Had we found case-control studies, we planned to exclude them because they are prone to bias; however, we did not locate any. Two review authors independently identified the relevant studies from the retrieved references.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data, including methodological quality assessment, from the included studies. As the included studies reported CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH on different days of admission and measured at different cut-off levels, it was not possible to perform a meta-analysis using the bivariate model as planned. We have reported the sensitivity, specificity, post-test probability of a positive and negative index test along with 95% confidence interval (CI) on each of the different days of admission and measured at different cut-off levels.

MAIN RESULTS

A total of three studies including 242 participants met the inclusion criteria for this review. One study reported the diagnostic performance of CRP for two threshold levels (> 200 mg/L and > 279 mg/L) without stating the day on which the CRP was measured. One study reported the diagnostic performance of procalcitonin on day 1 (1 day after admission) using a threshold level of 0.5 ng/mL. One study reported the diagnostic performance of CRP on day 3 (3 days after admission) using a threshold level of 140 mg/L and LDH on day 5 (5 days after admission) using a threshold level of 290 U/L. The sensitivities and specificities varied: the point estimate of the sensitivities ranged from 0.72 to 0.88, while the point estimate of the specificities ranged from 0.75 to 1.00 for the different index tests on different days of hospital admission. However, the confidence intervals were wide: confidence intervals of sensitivities ranged from 0.51 to 0.97, while those of specificities ranged from 0.18 to 1.00 for the different tests on different days of hospital admission. Overall, none of the tests assessed in this review were sufficiently accurate to suggest that they could be useful in clinical practice.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The paucity of data and methodological deficiencies in the studies meant that it was not possible to arrive at any conclusions regarding the diagnostic test accuracy of the index test because of the uncertainty of the results. Further well-designed diagnostic test accuracy studies with prespecified index test thresholds of CRP, procalcitonin, LDH; appropriate follow-up (for at least two weeks to ensure that the person does not have pancreatic necrosis, as early scans may not indicate pancreatic necrosis); and clearly defined reference standards (of surgical or radiological confirmation of pancreatic necrosis) are important to reliably determine the diagnostic accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH.

[Acute pancreatitis in intensive care medicine : Which risk score is useful?]

INTRODUCTION

Acute pancreatitis is a disease with an increasing incidence in the Western countries associated with a high mortality depending on severity of disease. Etiology is often biliary or due to alcoholism. Incidence of etiology varies between regions depending on risk-factor prevalence. Several risk scores are available to estimate mortality. The aim of the study is to identify the risk factors most relevant for patients being treated for severe acute pancreatitis in an ICU of a tertiary medical center.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The retrospective cohort study included 91 patients (61.2% men, mean age 52 years) with severe acute pancreatitis who were treated between 2002 and 2013 at the medical ICU of a tertiary medical center. Risk factors were identified using COX regression analysis and associations were assessed with the χ² test.

RESULTS

Pulmonary failure necessitating ventilator support, renal failure requiring renal replacement therapy, need for vasopressor therapy, positive blood cultures, and bleeding complications were identified as risk factors for high mortality in severe acute pancreatitis. Low calcium and high lactate levels are independent risk factors for mortality.

CONCLUSION

Critically ill patients with severe pancreatitis have high mortality rates that can be estimated using risk scores. Weighting of risk factors may differ depending on region and severity of disease. For patients included in our study, the Ranson Criteria and the APACHE II Score may be most applicable.

Role of bedside pancreatic scores and C-reactive protein in predicting pancreatic fluid collections and necrosis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis is a disease with variable outcome; the course of the disease can be modified by early aggressive management in patients with severe pancreatitis. Easily calculable pancreatic scores and investigations can help to triage these patients. We aimed to determine the role of bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), harmless acute pancreatitis score (HAPS), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) scores on day of admission and C-reactive protein (CRP) at 48 h for predicting the presence of pancreatic fluid collection (PFC) and necrosis on CT scans done at 72 h.

METHODS

Of a total of 114 consecutively seen patients of pancreatitis, 64 with acute pancreatitis were enrolled in the study. All individuals had the pancreatitis predicting scores calculated at the time of admission, CRP at 48 h, and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) abdomen at 72 h from admission.

RESULTS

The study population of 64 (55 male) had a mean (+SD) age of 37.7 ± 13 years. Alcohol was the most common (68.8%) etiology in these patients. Based on CECT, patients were divided into 2 groups; group 1 with 41 patients who had mild pancreatitis and group 2 with 23 patients who had pancreatic fluid collection with or without necrosis (PFCN). PFCN were seen in 19 (29.7%) of patients with 2 or more SIRS criteria, 17 (26.6%) of patients with BISAP score ≥3, and 16 patients (25.0%) with HAPS >0 respectively. All three scores were able to predict PFCN significantly. CRP >150 mg/L was noted in 23 patients and was able to predict the presence of fluid collections (p=0.0002) and pancreatic necrosis (p = 0.0004) on CT.

CONCLUSION

BISAP, HAPS, and SIRS scores and CRP of 150 mg/L all correlated significantly with the occurrence of fluid collections and pancreatic necrosis on CT at 72 h. None of the scores was superior to the other in this respect.

Early differential diagnosis of the severity of acute pancreatitis

There is a great need for early verification of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). The early stage of pathogenesis of AP is characterized by endothelial dysfunction which could be determined by wavelet analysis of skin temperature (WAST) technique. The aim is to investigate whether the dysregulation of microvascular tone caused by endothelial dysfunction and detected by WAST can be a significant indicator in early differential diagnosis of AP severity. The WAST performed in the frequency range of 0.0095-0.02 Hz during the contralateral cold test. Forty nine patients with AP aged 19-65 participated in this study. The control group included 12 healthy volunteers aged 20-65. Dysregulation of vascular tone during the contralateral cold test was observed in all patients with AP. The basal amplitudes of skin temperature oscillations in patients with AP were much lower than in healthy volunteers and progressively decreased as the disease severity increased. In patients with mild and moderate AP only the vasodilator component is destroyed, but vasoconstriction still operates. In patients with severe AP both mechanisms of endothelial vascular tone regulation are destroyed. Patients with AP have abnormal microvascular reactions related to the endothelial mechanism of vascular tone regulation. Based on the initial values of amplitudes and the indices of vasoconstriction and postcold vasodilatation, the WAST method makes it possible to evaluate two related but different characteristics of the endothelial dysfunction in patients with AP on admission which can be a significant indicator in early differential diagnosis of AP severity.

Effect of S100A12 and soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products on the occurrence of severe acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether serum levels of S100A12 and soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGE) could predict the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

We conducted a non-interventional pilot study, including 74 AP patients and 28 healthy volunteers serving as controls. AP patients were further divided into the mild (MAP, n = 22), moderately severe (MSAP, n = 30) and severe (SAP, n = 22) groups. Peripheral blood samples were collected within 72 h after the onset of AP for the determination of S100A12, sRAGE and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, Balthazar computed tomography severity index (CTSI) were calculated at admission.

RESULTS

S100A12 and sRAGE levels in SAP patient were significantly higher than in controls, MAP and MSAP patients. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis demonstrated the predictive ability of S100A12 [sensitivity 91%, specificity 81%, the area under the ROC curve AUROC 0.9047] and sRAGE (sensitivity 57%, specificity 100%, AUROC 0.8304) for evaluating the severity of AP. S100A12 and sRAGE were correlated with APACHE II and CTSI but not with CRP. This combination of new and traditional indicators had higher accuracy than traditional indicators alone. Specifically, S100A12 and sRAGE were positively correlated with the type of organ failure (respiratory and renal failure) and might distinguish transient from persistent organ failure at admission.

CONCLUSION

S100A12 and sRAGE could be used as efficient biomarkers for the early identification of SAP.

Efficacy of pediatric acute pancreatitis scores at a Japanese tertiary center

BACKGROUND

Pediatric acute pancreatitis (AP) is a rare but important clinical entity associated with significant morbidity. Predicting the severity and outcome of AP in pediatric patients can be challenging because there are few validated severity scoring systems. Moreover, the etiology of pediatric AP in the Japanese population is different from that of Western populations. The performance of severity scores in pediatric AP with a high prevalence of severe cases is still unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of existing severity scoring systems when used for Japanese children at a tertiary care center.

METHODS

We reviewed the electronic medical records of all children (≤18 years) treated for AP at between 2002 and 2012 at National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo. The modified Glasgow acute pancreatitis severity score (modified Glasgow), Ranson criteria (Ranson), Balthazar computed tomography severity index (CTSI), and pediatric acute pancreatitis severity (PAPS) score were assessed for their ability to distinguish severe pancreatitis from the milder forms.

RESULTS

Thirty-three Japanese children with AP were identified. Among them, 37 episodes were analyzed for the performance of the scoring systems and 33 for the etiology. The most common etiology of AP was structural abnormality (n = 8). Sensitivity for the modified Glasgow, Ranson, PAPS, and CTSI was 42.9%, 52.4%, 81.0%, and 50.0%, respectively, while specificity was 81.3%, 81.3%, 37.5%, and 76.9%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We found PAPS to be the most reliable when used for discriminating the severe form of AP from the milder forms at a Japanese tertiary pediatric care center.

Waterlow score as a surrogate marker for predicting adverse outcome in acute pancreatitis

Introduction Introduced originally to stratify risk for developing decubitus ulcers, the Waterlow scoring system is recorded routinely for surgical admissions. It is a composite score, reflecting patients' general condition and co-morbidities. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the Waterlow score can be used as an independent surrogate marker to predict severity and adverse outcome in acute pancreatitis. Methods In this retrospective analysis, a consecutive cohort was studied of 250 patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, all of whom had their Waterlow score calculated on admission. Primary outcome measures were length of hospital stay and mortality. Secondary outcome measures included rate of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and development of complications such as peripancreatic free fluid, pancreatic necrosis and pseudocyst formation. Correlation of the Waterlow score with some known markers of disease severity and outcomes was also analysed. Results The Waterlow score correlated strongly with the most commonly used marker of disease severity, the Glasgow score (analysis of variance, p=0.0012). Inpatient mortality, rate of ICU admission and length of hospital stay increased with a higher Waterlow score (Mann-Whitney U test, p=0.0007, p=0.049 and p=0.0002 respectively). There was, however, no significant association between the Waterlow score and the incidence of three known complications of pancreatitis: presence of peripancreatic fluid, pancreatic pseudocyst formation and pancreatic necrosis. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated good predictive power of the Waterlow score for mortality (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.73), ICU admission (AUC: 0.65) and length of stay >7 days (AUC: 0.64). This is comparable with the predictive power of the Glasgow score and C-reactive protein. Conclusions The Waterlow score for patients admitted with acute pancreatitis could provide a useful tool in prospective assessment of disease severity, help clinicians with appropriate resource management and inform patients.