Pneumonia is a neglected problem: it is now time to act

Pneumonia Mortality Trends in Children under 5 Years of Age in the Context of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination in Peru, 2003-2017

Worldwide, conjugated pneumococcal vaccines (PCVs) have proven effective against invasive pneumococcal disease, but non-invasive pneumonia is a major cause of mortality in young children and serotypes vary geographically, affecting effectiveness. We analyze nationwide death certificate data between 2003-2017 to assess the impact of PCVs on pneumonia mortality among young children from Peru. We report descriptive statistics and perform timeseries analysis on annual mortality rates (AMRs) and monthly frequencies of pneumonia deaths. Children under 5 years of age accounted for 6.2% (n = 10,408) of all pneumonia deaths (N = 166,844), and 32.3% (n = 3363) were children between 1-4 years of age, of which 95.1% did not report pneumonia etiology. Comparing periods before and after PCV introduction in 2009, mean AMRs dropped 13.5% and 26.0% for children between 1-4 years of age (toddlers/preschoolers), and children under 1 year of age (infants), respectively. A moderate correlation (Spearman's r = 0.546, p < 0.01) in the monthly frequency of pneumonia deaths was estimated between both age groups. Quadratic regression suggests a change in direction around 2005 (highest pneumonia mortality) for both age groups, but percentage change analysis identified an inflection point in 2013 for infants only, not for toddlers/preschoolers, suggesting that the impact of PCVs might be different for each age group.

Determinants of Community-Acquired Pneumonia Among Adults Patients Attending Debre Berhan University Hakim Gizaw Hospital, Northeast Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study

Background

Community-acquired pneumonia among adults remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality in both industrialized and developing countries, including Ethiopia. Moreover, despite the availability of the best clinical standards, morbidity and mortality from community-acquired pneumonia have not improved over the last few decades. Therefore, prompt assessment and correction of modifiable risk factors are crucial to reduce morbidity and mortality. However, there are limited data on the determinants of community-acquired pneumonia among adults in the current study area.

Purpose

This study aimed to identify the determinants of community-acquired pneumonia among adult patients visiting Debre Berhan University Hospital, Ethiopia, May 2023.

Methods

A hospital-based unmatched case-control study design was conducted to select 113 cases and 113 controls using a consecutive sampling technique. Using the SPSS version 25 software bi-variable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the determinants of community-acquired pneumonia. Adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals and p-values < 0.05 were used to assess the level of significance.

Results

In this study, recent history of common cold [AOR: 4.35, 95% CI: (2.22, 8.51)], recent history of toothache [AOR: 2.51, 95% CI: (1.18, 5.33)], and not brushing teeth regularly [AOR, 2.79; 95% CI: (1.32, 5.88)] were significantly associated with community-acquired pneumonia.

Conclusion

In this study, common cold, recent history of toothache, and lack of regular oral hygiene were significantly associated with community acquired pneumonia in adults. Therefore, health promotion of oral hygiene and the common cold is recommended to decrease the risk of pneumonia.

Herd immunity in older adults from a middle-income country: A time-series trend analysis of community-acquired pneumonia mortality 2003-2017

Background and Aims

Community-acquired pneumonia is responsible for substantial mortality, and pneumococcus is commonly accepted as a major cause of pneumonia, regardless of laboratory confirmation. Child immunization programs have reported success in decreasing pneumonia mortality: directly in young children and indirectly (herd immunity) in unvaccinated adult populations in some countries. We assess changes in mortality trends for all-cause pneumonia in older adults associated with the introduction of pneumococcal vaccination for children in Peru.

Methods

This is a secondary analysis on administrative data collected periodically by the Peruvian Ministry of Health. An observational retrospective time series analysis was conducted using longitudinal population-based data from death certificates in Peru between 2003 and 2017. The time series includes 6 years before and 9 years after the introduction of the pneumococcal-conjugated vaccines in the national child immunization program in 2009. Monthly frequencies and annual rates for all-cause pneumonia deaths in children under 5 years of age and adults over 65 years of age are presented. Linear and quadratic trends are analyzed.

Results

Deaths among older adults accounted for 75.6% of all-cause pneumonia mortality in Peru, with 94.4% of these reporting "pneumonia due to unspecified organism" as the underlying cause of death. Comparing pre- and post-child immunization program periods, annual average mortality rates from unspecified pneumonia decreased by 22.7% in young children but increased by 19.6% in older adults. A linear trend model supports this overall tendency, but a quadratic curve explains the data better.

Conclusion

Pneumococcal-conjugated vaccines are developed using serotypes prevalent in selected countries from less common (invasive) pneumococcal disease and expected to prevent mortality worldwide from widespread (noninvasive) pneumonia. Our results do not support the presence of herd immunity from pneumococcal vaccination of children for community-acquired pneumonia in the increasingly ageing population of Peru. This should direct future research and could influence public health policy.

Performance of Machine Learning Algorithms for Predicting Adverse Outcomes in Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Background: The ability to assess adverse outcomes in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) could improve clinical decision-making to enhance clinical practice, but the studies remain insufficient, and similarly, few machine learning (ML) models have been developed.

Objective: We aimed to explore the effectiveness of predicting adverse outcomes in CAP through ML models.

Methods: A total of 2,302 adults with CAP who were prospectively recruited between January 2012 and March 2015 across three cities in South America were extracted from DryadData. After a 70:30 training set: test set split of the data, nine ML algorithms were executed and their diagnostic accuracy was measured mainly by the area under the curve (AUC). The nine ML algorithms included decision trees, random forests, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machines, Naïve Bayes, K-nearest neighbors, ridge regression, logistic regression without regularization, and neural networks. The adverse outcomes included hospital admission, mortality, ICU admission, and one-year post-enrollment status.

Results: The XGBoost algorithm had the best performance in predicting hospital admission. Its AUC reached 0.921, and accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score were better than those of other models. In the prediction of ICU admission, a model trained with the XGBoost algorithm showed the best performance with AUC 0.801. XGBoost algorithm also did a good job at predicting one-year post-enrollment status. The results of AUC, accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score indicated the algorithm had high accuracy and precision. In addition, the best performance was seen by the neural network algorithm when predicting death (AUC 0.831).

Conclusions: ML algorithms, particularly the XGBoost algorithm, were feasible and effective in predicting adverse outcomes of CAP patients. The ML models based on available common clinical features had great potential to guide individual treatment and subsequent clinical decisions.

Mortality due to respiratory infections: an alert study before COVID-19 pandemic

Objective

Respiratory tract infections remain a common problem in clinical practice with high morbidity and mortality worldwide. In Portugal, pneumonia was the third leading death cause in 2018. Due to COVID-19 pandemic, there is a growing concern about the burden of respiratory diseases and preventable risk factors. The present study started before the pandemic and its aim was to determine the occurrence of pneumonia/bronchopneumonia in a postmortem series and to characterize its circumstantial context.

Methods

A retrospective anatomopathological study was performed on cases with acute pneumonia/bronchopneumonia at the Medicolegal Portuguese Institute (2011-2017).

Results

In an autopsy series of 737 patients, 521 were male and 675 presented comorbidities. The mean age was 63.87 ± 19.8 years. The most common acquisition site was community (65.1%), as natural death (65.5%). Concerning the manner of death, most cases (48.0%) were sudden deaths, followed by accidents (29.2%). A statistically significant association was observed between the medicolegal etiology and the place of infection acquisition, with higher prevalence of natural obitus (91.0%) in community-acquired pneumonia/bronchopneumonia versus higher prevalence of violent obitus in hospital-acquired pneumonia/bronchopneumonia (82.1%) (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Forensic anatomopathological postmortem data may contribute to better understand community and hospital pulmonary infections.

Deep Learning-Based Available and Common Clinical-Related Feature Variables Robustly Predict Survival in Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Background

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although there are many predictors of death for CAP, there are still some limitations. This study aimed to build a simple and accurate model based on available and common clinical-related feature variables for predicting CAP mortality by adopting machine learning techniques.

Methods

This was a single-center retrospective study. The data used in this study were collected from all patients (≥18 years) with CAP admitted to research hospitals between January 2012 and April 2020. Each patient had 62 clinical-related features, including clinical diagnostic and treatment features. Patients were divided into two endpoints, and by using Tensorflow2.4.1 as the modeling framework, a three-layer fully connected neural network (FCNN) was built as a base model for classification. For a comprehensive comparison, seven classical machine learning methods and their integrated stacking patterns were introduced to model and compare the same training and test data.

Results

A total of 3997 patients with CAP were included; 205 (5.12%) died in the hospital. After performing deep learning methods, this study established an ensemble FCNN model based on 12 FCNNs. By comparing with seven classical machine learning methods, the area under the curve of the ensemble FCNN was 0.975 when using deep learning algorithms to classify poor from good prognosis based on available and common clinical-related feature variables. The predicted outcome was poor prognosis if the ControlNet's poor prognosis score was greater than the cutoff value of 0.50. To confirm the scientificity of the ensemble FCNN model, this study analyzed the weight of random forest features and found that mainstream prognostic features still held weight, although the model is perfect after integrating other factors considered less important by previous studies.

Conclusion

This study used deep learning algorithms to classify prognosis based on available and common clinical-related feature variables in patients with CAP with high accuracy and good generalizability. Every clinical-related feature is important to the model.

Understanding the Host in the Management of Pneumonia. An Official American Thoracic Society Workshop Report

Pneumonia causes a significant burden of disease worldwide. Although all populations are at risk of pneumonia, those at extremes of age and those with immunosuppressive disorders, underlying respiratory disease, and critical illness are particularly vulnerable. Although clinical practice guidelines addressing the management and treatment of pneumonia exist, few of the supporting studies focus on the crucial contributions of the host in pneumonia pathogenesis and recovery. Such essential considerations include the host risk factors that lead to susceptibility to lung infections; biomarkers reflecting the host response and the means to pursue host-directed pneumonia therapy; systemic effects of pneumonia on the host; and long-term health outcomes after pneumonia. To address these gaps, the Pneumonia Working Group of the Assembly on Pulmonary Infection and Tuberculosis led a workshop held at the American Thoracic Society meeting in May 2018 with overarching objectives to foster attention, stimulate research, and promote funding for short-term and long-term investigations into the host contributions to pneumonia. The workshop involved participants from various disciplines with expertise in lung infection, pneumonia, sepsis, immunocompromised patients, translational biology, data science, genomics, systems biology, and clinical trials. This workshop report summarizes the presentations and discussions and important recommendations for future clinical pneumonia studies. These recommendations include establishing consensus disease and outcome definitions, improved phenotyping, development of clinical study networks, standardized data and biospecimen collection and protocols, and development of innovative trial designs.

Community-acquired pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia is not usually considered a high-priority problem by the public, although it is responsible for substantial mortality, with a third of patients dying within 1 year after being discharged from hospital for pneumoniae. Although up to 18% of patients with community-acquired pneumonia who were hospitalised (admitted to hospital and treated there) have at least one risk factor for immunosuppression worldwide, strong evidence on community-acquired pneumonia management in this population is scarce. Several features of clinical management for community-acquired pneumonia should be addressed to reduce mortality, morbidity, and complications related to community-acquired pneumonia in patients who are immunocompetent and patients who are immunocompromised. These features include rapid diagnosis, microbiological investigation, prevention and management of complications (eg, respiratory failure, sepsis, and multiorgan failure), empirical antibiotic therapy in accordance with patient's risk factors and local microbiological epidemiology, individualised antibiotic therapy according to microbiological data, appropriate outcomes for therapeutic switch from parenteral to oral antibiotics, discharge planning, and long-term follow-up. This Seminar offers an updated view on community-acquired pneumonia in adults, with suggestions for clinical and translational research.

Combined Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and CURB-65 Score as an Accurate Predictor of Mortality for Community-Acquired Pneumonia in the Elderly

Purpose

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is common among the elderly; it typically has a poor prognosis and high mortality. This study evaluated the factors predicting CAP-related in-hospital mortality in the elderly to identify a simpler and more accurate predictor.

Patients and Methods

This was a single-center, retrospective study. The data used in this study was collected from all older patients (≥65) with CAP admitted to our hospital between January 2012 and April 2020.

Results

A total of 2028 older patients with CAP were included; 121 (5.97%) died in hospital. Of the patients in the study, 1267 (62.5%) were men and 261 (12.9%) had a history of malignant tumors. After performing univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, sex, history of malignant tumor, CURB-65 score, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), hemoglobin level, and NLR*CURB-65 levels were associated with CAP mortality. By comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the predicted factors, the NLR*CURB-65 level used to predict CAP mortality in the elderly was 0.755, and was superior to other measurements. All included patients were then dichotomized into two groups based on NLR*CURB-65 level (≤9.06 and >9.06) according to the ROC analysis. Patients with a high NLR*CURB-65 level had higher in-hospital mortality than those with a low NLR*CURB-65 level. The two divided groups showed significant differences in age, sex, smoking history, comorbidity, and laboratory findings. This indicates that NLR*CURB-65 is a predictive index that could reflect the comprehensive condition of older patients with CAP.

Conclusion

NLR*CURB-65 is a simpler and more accurate predictor of CAP-related in-hospital mortality in the elderly.

Illness representations on pneumonia and pneumococcal vaccination uptake among community-living Chinese people with high-risk conditions aged ≥65 years --- a population-based study

This study investigated the associations between illness representations of pneumonia and pneumococcal vaccination (PV) uptake among a group of community-living aging adults having at least one high-risk condition for severe invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD). A total of 750 community-living Chinese-speaking individuals aged ≥65 y completed a random telephone survey. This study was based on 483 participants having at least one high-risk condition for severe IPD. The Illness Representation Questionnaire-Revised (IPQ-R) measured four dimensions of illness representations. These dimensions included timeline (whether pneumonia is believed to be acute/chronic), consequences (severity of pneumonia), treatment control (whether pneumonia is under volitional control), and emotional response (anger, guilty, or shame). Using PV uptake (among all participants) and behavioral intention to take up PV (among unvaccinated participants) as the dependent variables, logistic regression models were fitted. Among all participants (n = 483), 17.8% reported PV uptake; 18.6% of unvaccinated participants (n = 397) intended to take up two doses of free PV in the next year. After adjustment for significant background variables, participants who perceived more severe consequences of pneumonia (adjusted odds ratios, AOR: 1.18, 95%CI: 1.01, 1.40) and belief that treatment can control pneumonia (AOR: 1.41, 95%CI: 1.25, 1.58) reported higher PV uptake. Perceived pneumonia to be chronic (AOR: 1.44, 95%CI: 1.16, 1.78), belief that treatment can control pneumonia (AOR: 1.25, 95%CI: 1.12, 1.40) and having negative emotions related to pneumonia (AOR: 1.17, 95%CI: 1.09, 1.25) were positively associated with behavioral intention to take up PV. Results confirmed that illness representations were associated with PV-related behaviors.

Diagnostic potential of circulating cell-free microRNAs for community-acquired pneumonia and pneumonia-related sepsis

Cell-free microRNAs (miRNAs) are transferred in disease state including inflammatory lung diseases and are often packed into extracellular vesicles (EVs). To assess their suitability as biomarkers for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and severe secondary complications such as sepsis, we studied patients with CAP (n = 30), sepsis (n = 65) and healthy volunteers (n = 47) subdivided into a training (n = 67) and a validation (n = 75) cohort. After precipitating crude EVs from sera, associated small RNA was profiled by next-generation sequencing (NGS) and evaluated in multivariate analyses. A subset of the thereby identified biomarker candidates was validated both technically and additionally by reverse transcription quantitative real-time PCR (RT-qPCR). Differential gene expression (DGE) analysis revealed 29 differentially expressed miRNAs in CAP patients when compared to volunteers, and 25 miRNAs in patients with CAP, compared to those with sepsis. Sparse partial-least discriminant analysis separated groups based on 12 miRNAs. Three miRNAs proved as a significant biomarker signature. While expression levels of miR-1246 showed significant changes with an increase in overall disease severity from volunteers to CAP and to sepsis, miR-193a-5p and miR-542-3p differentiated patients with an infectious disease (CAP or sepsis) from volunteers. Cell-free miRNAs are potentially novel biomarkers for CAP and may help to identify patients at risk for progress to sepsis, facilitating early intervention and treatment.

International Perspective on the New 2019 American Thoracic Society/Infectious Diseases Society of America Community-Acquired Pneumonia Guideline: A Critical Appraisal by a Global Expert Panel

In 2019, the American Thoracic Society (ATS) and Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) issued a substantial revision of the 2007 guideline on community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Despite the fact that generalization of infectious disease guidelines is limited because of substantial geographic differences in microbiologic etiology and antimicrobial resistance, the ATS/IDSA guideline is frequently applied outside the United States. Therefore, this project aimed to give a perspective on the ATS/IDSA CAP recommendations related to the management of CAP outside the United States. For this, an expert panel composed of 14 international key opinion leaders in the field of CAP from 10 countries across five continents, who were not involved in producing the 2019 guideline, was asked to subjectively name the five most useful changes, the recommendation viewed most critically, and the recommendation that cannot be applied to their respective region. There was no formal consensus process, and the article reflects different opinions. Recommendations welcomed by most of the international pneumonia experts included the abandonment of the concept of “health-care-associated pneumonia,” the more restrictive indication for empiric macrolide treatment in outpatients, the increased emphasis on microbiologic diagnostics, and addressing the use of corticosteroids. Main criticisms included the somewhat arbitrary choice of a 25% resistance threshold for outpatient macrolide monotherapy. Experts from areas with elevated mycobacterial prevalence particularly opposed the recommendation of fluoroquinolones, even as an alternative.

Promoting the use of social networks in pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia is a serious health concern, but it does not attract the attention it warrants. Perhaps this is due to a lack of understanding of the real extent of this infectious disease in the general population.

METHODS

A literature review was performed to assess the role of social networks as a means to raise awareness over pneumonia worldwide and increase its visibility.

RESULTS

In 2017, approximately 800,000 children under 5 years and approximately one million older people died of pneumonia. The importance of this pathology remains underestimated, despite the publication of many articles, comments, and editorials dedicated to rectifying the imbalance and to reduce its impact and associated mortality. Current misperceptions about pneumonia are alarming. Education and awareness are essential in the fight against this major public health threat; in this endeavor, social networks can be used to distribute science-based information about the disease and thus raise awareness among the general public about the dangers it poses. Approximately 3.8 billion people were using social media at the beginning of 2020, representing more than half of the world's population.

CONCLUSION

Social networks offer a valuable tool for disseminating scientific information about pneumonia, increasing its visibility, and in general raising awareness about this preventable disease.

Bacterial etiology of community-acquired pneumonia in immunocompetent hospitalized patients and appropriateness of empirical treatment recommendations: an international point-prevalence study

An accurate knowledge of the epidemiology of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is key for selecting appropriate antimicrobial treatments. Very few etiological studies assessed the appropriateness of empiric guideline recommendations at a multinational level. This study aims at the following: (i) describing the bacterial etiologic distribution of CAP and (ii) assessing the appropriateness of the empirical treatment recommendations by clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) for CAP in light of the bacterial pathogens diagnosed as causative agents of CAP. Secondary analysis of the GLIMP, a point-prevalence international study which enrolled adults hospitalized with CAP in 2015. The analysis was limited to immunocompetent patients tested for bacterial CAP agents within 24 h of admission. The CAP CPGs evaluated included the following: the 2007 and 2019 American Thoracic Society/Infectious Diseases Society of America (ATS/IDSA), the European Respiratory Society (ERS), and selected country-specific CPGs. Among 2564 patients enrolled, 35.3% had an identifiable pathogen. Streptococcus pneumoniae (8.2%) was the most frequently identified pathogen, followed by Pseudomonas aeruginosa (4.1%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (3.4%). CPGs appropriately recommend covering more than 90% of all the potential pathogens causing CAP, with the exception of patients enrolled from Germany, Pakistan, and Croatia. The 2019 ATS/IDSA CPGs appropriately recommend covering 93.6% of the cases compared with 90.3% of the ERS CPGs (p < 0.01). S. pneumoniae remains the most common pathogen in patients hospitalized with CAP. Multinational CPG recommendations for patients with CAP seem to appropriately cover the most common pathogens and should be strongly encouraged for the management of CAP patients.

Defining Community-Acquired Pneumonia as a Public Health Threat: Arguments in Favor from Spanish Investigators

Despite advances in its prevention, pneumonia remains associated with high morbidity, mortality, and health costs worldwide. Studies carried out in the last decade have indicated that more patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) now require hospitalization. In addition, pneumonia management poses many challenges, especially due to the increase in the number of elderly patients with multiple comorbidities, antibiotic-resistant pathogens, and the difficulty of rapid diagnosis. In this new call to action, we present a wide-ranging review of the information currently available on CAP and offer some reflections on ways to raise awareness of this disease among the general public. We discuss the burden of CAP and the importance of attaining better, faster microbiological diagnosis and initiating appropriate treatment. We also suggest that closer cooperation between health professionals and the population at large could improve the management of this largely preventable infectious disease that takes many lives each year.

Hot topics and current controversies in community-acquired pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the most common infectious diseases, as well as a major cause of death both in developed and developing countries, and it remains a challenge for physicians around the world. Several guidelines have been published to guide clinicians in how to diagnose and take care of patients with CAP. However, there are still many areas of debate and uncertainty where research is needed to advance patient care and improve clinical outcomes. In this review we highlight current hot topics in CAP and present updated evidence around these areas of controversy.

Community-acquired pneumonia is the most frequent cause of infectious death worldwide; however, there are several areas of controversy that should be addressed to improve patient care. This review presents the available data on these topics.http://bit.ly/2ShnH7A