Key issues in the persistence of poliomyelitis in Nigeria: a case-control study

Geographic disparities impacting oral vaccine performance: Observations and future directions

Oral vaccines have several advantages compared with parenteral administration: they can be relatively cheap to produce in high quantities, easier to administer, and induce intestinal mucosal immunity that can protect against infection. These characteristics have led to successful use of oral vaccines against rotavirus, polio, and cholera. Unfortunately, oral vaccines for all three diseases have demonstrated lower performance in the highest-burden settings where they are most needed. Rotavirus vaccines are estimated to have >85% effectiveness against hospitalization in children <12 months in countries with low child mortality, but only ~65% effectiveness in countries with high child mortality. Similarly, oral polio vaccines have lower immunogenicity in developing country settings compared with high-resource settings. Data are more limited for oral cholera vaccines, but suggest lower titers among children compared with adults, and, for some vaccines, lower efficacy in endemic settings compared with non-endemic settings. These disparities are likely multifactorial, and available evidence suggests a role for maternal factors (e.g. transplacental antibodies, breastmilk), host factors (e.g. genetic polymorphisms-with the best evidence for rotavirus-or previous infection), and environmental factors (e.g. gut microbiome, co-infections). Overall, these data highlight the rather ambiguous and often contradictory nature of evidence on factors affecting oral vaccine response, cautioning against broad extrapolation of outcomes based on one population or one vaccine type. Meaningful impact on performance of oral vaccines will likely only be possible with a suite of interventions, given the complex and multifactorial nature of the problem, and the degree to which contributing factors are intertwined.

Exploring the landscape of routine immunization in Nigeria: A scoping review of barriers and facilitators

Background

Despite global efforts to improve vaccination coverage, the number of zero-dose and under-immunized children has increased in Africa, particularly in Nigeria, which has over 2.1 million unvaccinated (zero dose) children, the highest in the continent. This scoping review systematically maps and summarizes existing literature on the barriers and facilitators of immunization in Nigeria, focusing on regional inequalities.

Methods

A comprehensive search of electronic databases was conducted, encompassing all data from their inception to October 2023, to identify articles on the determinants of routine immunization uptake in Nigeria. Eligible studies were evaluated using predefined criteria, and the data were analyzed and visualized.

Results

The results revealed distinct regional variations in factors influencing immunization practices across Nigeria's six geopolitical zones. Identified barriers include logistical issues, socio-economic factors, cultural influences, and systemic healthcare deficiencies. Key facilitators across multiple zones are health literacy, maternal education, and community leader influence. However, unique regional differences were also identified. In the North-East, significant factors included peer influence, robust reminder systems, provision of additional security, and financial incentives for health facilities. In the North-West, perceived vaccine benefits, fear of non-immunization consequences, urban residence, health literacy, and antenatal care visits were reported as crucial. Perceived benefits of vaccines and trust in healthcare providers were identified as predominant factors in the North-Central zone In the South-East, maternal autonomy, health literacy, and fear of non-immunization consequences were important. In the South-South, peer influence and reminder systems like WhatsApp and SMS were notable, alongside higher maternal education levels. The South-West highlighted maternal autonomy, peer influence, health card usage, high maternal education, and supportive government policies as critical factors.

Conclusion

Our findings underscore the need for region-specific interventions that address these unique barriers to improve immunization coverage across Nigeria. Tailored approaches that consider the socio-economic, cultural, and logistical challenges specific to each region are essential to bridge the immunization gap.

Effectiveness of poliovirus vaccines against circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliomyelitis in Nigeria between 2017 and 2022: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

Between 2018 and 2022, Nigeria experienced continuous transmission of circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2), with 526 cases of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis detected in total and approximately 180 million doses of monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV2) and 450 million doses of novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (nOPV2) delivered in outbreak response campaigns. Inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) was introduced into routine immunisation in 2015, with a second dose added in 2021. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of nOPV2 against cVDPV2 paralysis and compare nOPV2 effectiveness with that of mOPV2 and IPV.

METHODS

In this retrospective case-control study, we used acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance data in Nigeria from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2022, using age-matched, onset-matched, and location-matched cVDPV2-negative AFP cases as test-negative controls. We also did a parallel prospective study from March, 2021, using age-matched community controls from the same settlement as the cases. We included children born after May, 2016, younger than 60 months, for whom polio immunisation history (doses of OPV from campaigns and IPV) was reported. We estimated the per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 against cVDPV2 paralysis using conditional logistic regression and compared nOPV2 effectiveness with that of mOPV2 and IPV.

FINDINGS

In the retrospective case-control study, we identified 509 cVDPV2 poliomyelitis cases in Nigeria with case verification and paralysis onset between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2022. Of these, 82 children were excluded for not meeting inclusion criteria, and 363 (85%) of 427 eligible cases were matched to 1303 test-negative controls. Cases reported fewer OPV and IPV doses than test-negative controls (mean number of OPV doses 5·9 [SD 4·2] in cases vs 6·7 [4·3] in controls; one or more IPV doses reported in 95 [26%] of 363 cases vs 513 [39%] of 1303 controls). We found low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (12%, 95% CI -2 to 25) and mOPV2 (17%, 3 to 29), but no significant difference between the two vaccines (p=0·67). The estimated effectiveness of one IPV dose was 43% (23 to 58). In the prospective study, 181 (46%) of 392 eligible cases were matched to 1557 community controls. Using community controls, we found a high effectiveness of IPV (89%, 95% CI 83 to 93, for one dose), a low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (-23%, -45 to -5) and mOPV2 (1%, -23 to 20), and no significant difference between the per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 and mOPV2 (p=0·12).

INTERPRETATION

We found no significant difference in estimated effectiveness of the two oral vaccines, supporting the recommendation that the more genetically stable nOPV2 should be preferred in cVDPV2 outbreak response. Our findings highlight the role of IPV and the necessity of strengthening routine immunisation, the primary route through which IPV is delivered.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and UK Medical Research Council.

Zero- or missed-dose children in Nigeria: Contributing factors and interventions to overcome immunization service delivery challenges

'Zero-dose' refers to a person who does not receive a single dose of any vaccine in the routine national immunization schedule, while 'missed dose' refers to a person who does not complete the schedule. These peopleremain vulnerable to vaccine-preventable diseases, and are often already disadvantaged due to poverty, conflict, and lack of access to basic health services. Globally, more 22.7 million children are estimated to be zero- or missed-dose, of which an estimated 3.1 million (∼14 %) reside in Nigeria.We conducted a scoping review tosynthesize recent literature on risk factors and interventions for zero- and missed-dosechildren in Nigeria. Our search identified 127 papers, including research into risk factors only (n = 66); interventions only (n = 34); both risk factors and interventions (n = 18); and publications that made recommendations only (n = 9). The most frequently reported factors influencing childhood vaccine uptake were maternal factors (n = 77), particularly maternal education (n = 22) and access to ante- and perinatal care (n = 19); heterogeneity between different types of communities - including location, region, wealth, religion, population composition, and other challenges (n = 50); access to vaccination, i.e., proximity of facilities with vaccines and vaccinators (n = 37); and awareness about immunization - including safety, efficacy, importance, and schedules (n = 18).Literature assessing implementation of interventions was more scattered, and heavily skewed towards vaccination campaigns and polio eradication efforts. Major evidence gaps exist in how to deliver effective and sustainable routine childhood immunization. Overall, further work is needed to operationalise the learnings from these studies, e.g. through applying findings to Nigeria's next review of vaccination plans, and using this summary as a basis for further investigation and specific recommendations on effective interventions.

Analysis of population immunity to poliovirus following cessation of trivalent oral polio vaccine

BACKGROUND

The global withdrawal of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) (tOPV, containing Sabin poliovirus strains serotypes 1, 2 and 3) from routine immunization, and the introduction of bivalent OPV (bOPV, containing Sabin poliovirus strains serotypes 1 and 3) and trivalent inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) into routine immunization was expected to improve population serologic and mucosal immunity to types 1 and 3 poliovirus, while population mucosal immunity to type 2 poliovirus would decline. However, over the period since tOPV withdrawal, the implementation of preventive bOPV supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) has decreased, while outbreaks of type 2 circulating vaccine derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) have required targeted use of monovalent type 2 OPV (mOPV2).

METHODS

We develop a dynamic model of OPV-induced immunity to estimate serotype-specific, district-level immunity for countries in priority regions and characterize changes in immunity since 2016. We account for the changes in routine immunization schedules and varying implementation of preventive and outbreak response SIAs, assuming homogenous coverages of 50% and 80% for SIAs.

RESULTS

In areas with strong routine immunization, the switch from tOPV to bOPV has likely resulted in gains in population immunity to types 1 and 3 poliovirus. However, we estimate that improved immunogenicity of new schedules has not compensated for declines in preventive SIAs in areas with weak routine immunization. For type 2 poliovirus, without tOPV in routine immunization or SIAs, mucosal immunity has declined nearly everywhere, while use of mOPV2 has created highly heterogeneous population immunity for which it is important to take into account when responding to cVDPV2 outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS

The withdrawal of tOPV and declining allocations of resources for preventive bOPV SIAs have resulted in reduced immunity in vulnerable areas to types 1 and 3 poliovirus and generally reduced immunity to type 2 poliovirus in the regions studied, assuming homogeneous coverages of 50% and 80% for SIAs. The very low mucosal immunity to type 2 poliovirus generates substantially greater risk for further spread of cVDPV2 outbreaks. Emerging gaps in immunity to all serotypes will require judicious targeting of limited resources to the most vulnerable populations by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI).

Real-time prediction model of cVDPV2 outbreaks to aid outbreak response vaccination strategies

BACKGROUND

Circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks are spreading more widely than anticipated, which has generated a crisis for the global polio eradication initiative. Effectively responding with vaccination activities requires a rapid risk assessment. This assessment is made difficult by the low case-to-infection ratio of type 2 poliovirus, variable transmissibility, changing population immunity, surveillance delays, and limited vaccine supply from the global stockpile. The geographical extent of responses have been highly variable between countries.

METHODS

We develop a statistical spatio-temporal model of short-term, district-level poliovirus spread that incorporates known risk factors, including historical wild poliovirus transmission risk, routine immunization coverage, population immunity, and exposure to the outbreak virus.

RESULTS

We find that proximity to recent cVDPV2 cases is the strongest risk factor for spread of an outbreak, and find significant associations between population immunity, historical risk, routine immunization, and environmental surveillance (p < 0.05). We examine the fit of the model to type 2 vaccine derived poliovirus spread since 2016 and find that our model predicts the location of cVDPV2 cases well (AUC = 0.96). We demonstrate use of the model to estimate appropriate scope of outbreak response activities to current outbreaks.

CONCLUSION

As type 2 immunity continues to decline following the cessation of tOPV in 2016, outbreak responses to new cVDPV2 detections will need to be faster and larger in scope. We provide a framework that can be used to support decisions on the appropriate size of a vaccination response when new detections are identified. While the model does not account for all relevant local factors that must be considered in the overall vaccination response, it enables a quantitative basis for outbreak response size.

Poliomyelitis seroprevalence in high risk populations of India before the trivalent-bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine switch in 2016

INTRODUCTION

This study assessed the seroprevalence against all three polioviruses among the last cohort of infants aged 6-11 months who received tOPV before the tOPV-bOPV switch and had an opportunity to receive a full dose of inactivated poliovirus vaccine introduced in the routine immunization schedule.

METHODS

Serum was tested for neutralizing antibodies against polioviruses among infants residing in three different risk- category states for poliovirus transmission in India viz., Bihar historically high-risk state for polio, Madhya Pradesh a State with low routine immunization coverage and Chhattisgarh with lower acute flaccid paralysis surveillance indicators.

RESULTS

A total of 1113 serum samples were tested across the three states. The overall seroprevalence was 98.5% (97.7-99.2), 98.9% (98.3-99.5) and 94.4% (93.0-95.8) for poliovirus types 1, 2 and 3 respectively. The median antibody titers for corresponding serotypes were 575, 362 and 181. Infants who received five doses of tOPV showed respective seroprevalence rates of 98.7%, 98.7% and 93.7% against types 1, 2 and 3 polioviruses. There was no significant difference in seroprevalence across the group of IPV recipients. The median reciprocal titers across the groups of IPV recipient was significantly higher (p = 0.006) for poliovirus-3.

CONCLUSION

The seroprevalence rates observed in the study are historically the highest in the series of serosurveys that India has conducted to assess the population immunity against polioviruses. Poliovirus 2 seroprevalence was very high at the time of the tOPV-bOPV switch in India effected in April 2016.

Nigeria's Joint External Evaluation and National Action Plan for Health Security

Nigeria is working to protect against and respond more effectively to disease outbreaks. Quick mobilization and control of the Ebola epidemic in 2014, at least 4 major domestic outbreaks each year, and significant progress toward polio eradication led to adoption of the World Health Organization's Global Health Security Joint External Evaluation (JEE) and National Action Plan for Health Security (NAPHS). The process required joint assessment and planning among many agencies, ministries, and sectors over the past 2 years. We carried out a JEE of 19 core programs in 2017 and launched a detailed NAPHS to improve prevention, detection, and response in December 2018, which required us to create topic-specific groups to document work to date and propose JEE scores. We then met with an international team for 5 days to review and revise scoring and recommendations, created a 5-year implementation plan, developed a management team to oversee implementation, drafted legislation to manage outbreaks, trained professionals at state and local levels of government, and set priorities among the many possible activities recommended. Management software and leadership skills were developed to monitor global health security programs. We learned to use international assistance strategically to strengthen planning and mentor national staff. Finally, a review of every major disease outbreak was used to prepare for the next challenge. Review and adaptation of this plan each year will be critical to ensure sustained momentum and progress. Many low-income countries are skilled at managing vertical disease control programs. Balancing and combining the 19 core activities of a country's public health system is a more demanding challenge.

Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication

INTRODUCTION

Over the last 20 years (2000-2019) the partners of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) invested in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission as well as economics, policy, and risk analyses of polio endgame risk management options, including policies related to poliovirus vaccine use during the polio endgame.

AREAS COVERED

This review provides a historical record of the polio studies published by the three modeling groups that primarily performed the bulk of this work. This review also systematically evaluates the polio transmission and health economic modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2019, highlights differences in approaches and methods, shows the geographic coverage of the transmission modeling performed, identified common themes, and discusses instances of similar or conflicting insights or recommendations.

EXPERT OPINION

Polio modeling performed during the last 20 years substantially impacted polio vaccine choices, immunization policies, and the polio eradication pathway. As the polio endgame continues, national preferences for polio vaccine formulations and immunization strategies will likely continue to change. Future modeling will likely provide important insights about their cost-effectiveness and their relative benefits with respect to controlling polio and potentially achieving and maintaining eradication.

Trends in Poliovirus Seroprevalence in Kano State, Northern Nigeria

Background

Kano state has been a protracted reservoir of poliovirus in Nigeria. Immunity trends have been monitored through seroprevalence surveys since 2011. The survey in 2015 was, in addition, intended to assess the impact of use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV).

Methods

It was a health facility based seroprevalence survey. Eligible children aged 6-9, 12-15 and 19-22 months of age brought to the paediatrics outpatient department of Murtala Mohammad Specialist Hospital between 19 October and 6 November 2015, were screened for eligibility. Eligible children were enrolled after parental consent, history taken, physical examination conducted, and a blood sample collected to test for neutralizing antibody titres against the three poliovirus serotypes.

Results

Overall, 365 results were available in the three age groups. In the 6-9-month-old age group, the seroprevalence was 73% (95% confidence interval [CI] 64-80%), 83% (95% CI 75-88%), and 66% (95% CI 57-73%) for serotypes 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In the 12-15- and 19-22-month-old age groups, seroprevalence was higher but still remained <90% across serotypes. Seroprevalence to serotypes 1 and 3 in 2015 was similar to 2014; however, for serotype 2 there was a significant improvement. IPV received in supplemental immunization activities was found to be a significant predictor of seropositivity among 6-9-month-old infants for serotypes 1 and 2.

Conclusions

Seroprevalence for serotypes 1 and 3 remains low (<80%) in 6-9-month-olds. This poses a significant risk for poliovirus spread if reintroduced into the population. Efforts to strengthen immunization coverage are imperative to secure and sustain high population immunity.

Polio elimination in Nigeria: A review

Nigeria has made tremendous strides towards eliminating polio and has been free of wild polio virus (WPV) for more than a year as of August 2015. However, sustained focus towards getting rid of all types of poliovirus by improving population immunity and enhancing disease surveillance will be needed to ensure it sustains the polio-free status. We reviewed the pertinent literature including published and unpublished, official reports and working documents of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners as well as other concerned organizations. The literature were selected based on the following criteria: published in English Language, published after year 2000, relevant content and conformance to the theme of the review and these were sorted accordingly. The challenges facing the Polio Eradication Initiative (PEI) in Nigeria were found to fall into 3 broad categories viz failure to vaccinate, failure of the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) and epidemiology of the virus. Failure to vaccinate resulted from insecurity, heterogeneous political support, programmatic limitation in implementation of vaccination campaigns, poor performance of vaccination teams in persistently poor performing Local Government areas and sporadic vaccine refusals in Northern Nigeria. Sub optimal effectiveness of OPV in some settings as well as the rare occurrence of VDPVs associated with OPV type 2 in areas of low immunization coverage were also found to be key issues. Some of the innovations which helped to manage the threats to the PEI include a strong government accountability frame work, change from type 2 containing OPV to bi valent OPVs for supplementary immunization activities (SIA), enhancing environmental surveillance in key states (Sokoto, Kano and Borno) along with an overall improvement in SIA quality. There has been an improvement in coverage of routine immunization and vaccination campaigns, which has resulted in Nigeria being removed from the list of endemic countries following an absence of new cases for an entire year as of September 2015. However, the last mile remains to be crossed and there is need to further improve and sustain the momentum to complete the journey toward polio elimination.

Survey of poliovirus antibodies in Borno and Yobe States, North-Eastern Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Nigeria remains one of only three polio-endemic countries in the world. In 2016, after an absence of 2 years, wild poliovirus serotype 1 was again detected in North-Eastern Nigeria. To better guide programmatic action, we assessed the immunity status of infants and children in Borno and Yobe states, and evaluated the impact of recently introduced inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) on antibody seroprevalence.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a facility-based study of seroprevalence to poliovirus serotypes 1, 2 and 3 among health-seeking patients in two sites each of Borno and Yobe States. Enrolment was conducted amongst children 6-9 and 36-47 months of age attending the paediatrics outpatient department of the selected hospitals in the two states between 11 January and 5 February 2016. Detailed demographic and immunization history of the child was taken and an assessment of the child's health and nutritional state was conducted via physical examination. Blood was collected to test for levels of neutralizing antibody titres against the three poliovirus serotypes. The seroprevalence in the two age groups, potential determinants of seropositivity and the impact of one dose of IPV on humoral immunity were assessed. A total of 583 subjects were enrolled and provided sufficient quantities of serum for testing. Among 6-9-month-old infants, the seroprevalence was 81% (74-87%), 86% (79-91%), and 72% (65-79%) in Borno State, and 75% (67-81%), 74% (66-81%) and 69% (61-76%) in Yobe States, for serotypes-1, 2 and 3, respectively. Among children aged 36-47 months, the seroprevalence was >90% in both states for all three serotypes, with the exception of type 3 seroprevalence in Borno [87% (80-91%)]. Median reciprocal anti-polio neutralizing antibody titers were consistently >900 for serotypes 1 and 2 across age groups and states; with lower estimates for serotype 3, particularly in Borno. IPV received in routine immunization was found to be a significant determinant of seropositivity and anti-polio neutralizing antibodies among 6-9-month-old infants for serotypes 1 and 3, but demonstrated a non-significant positive association for serotype 2. Children receiving IPV through SIAs demonstrated significantly higher anti-polio neutralizing antibodies for serotypes 1 and 3.

CONCLUSIONS

The seroprevalence to poliovirus remains suboptimal in both Borno and Yobe States in Nigeria. The low seroprevalence facilitated the continued transmission of both wild serotype 1 and serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus detected in Borno State in 2016. Further efforts are necessary to improve the immunity status of these populations to ensure sufficient population immunity to interrupt transmission.

Risk factors and short-term projections for serotype-1 poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan: A spatiotemporal analysis

BACKGROUND

Pakistan currently provides a substantial challenge to global polio eradication, having contributed to 73% of reported poliomyelitis in 2015 and 54% in 2016. A better understanding of the risk factors and movement patterns that contribute to poliovirus transmission across Pakistan would support evidence-based planning for mass vaccination campaigns.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We fit mixed-effects logistic regression models to routine surveillance data recording the presence of poliomyelitis associated with wild-type 1 poliovirus in districts of Pakistan over 6-month intervals between 2010 to 2016. To accurately capture the force of infection (FOI) between districts, we compared 6 models of population movement (adjacency, gravity, radiation, radiation based on population density, radiation based on travel times, and mobile-phone based). We used the best-fitting model (based on the Akaike Information Criterion [AIC]) to produce 6-month forecasts of poliomyelitis incidence. The odds of observing poliomyelitis decreased with improved routine or supplementary (campaign) immunisation coverage (multivariable odds ratio [OR] = 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.84; and OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.85, respectively, for each 10% increase in coverage) and increased with a higher rate of reporting non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) (OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26 for a 1-unit increase in non-polio AFP per 100,000 persons aged <15 years). Estimated movement of poliovirus-infected individuals was associated with the incidence of poliomyelitis, with the radiation model of movement providing the best fit to the data. Six-month forecasts of poliomyelitis incidence by district for 2013-2016 showed good predictive ability (area under the curve range: 0.76-0.98). However, although the best-fitting movement model (radiation) was a significant determinant of poliomyelitis incidence, it did not improve the predictive ability of the multivariable model. Overall, in Pakistan the risk of polio cases was predicted to reduce between July-December 2016 and January-June 2017. The accuracy of the model may be limited by the small number of AFP cases in some districts.

CONCLUSIONS

Spatiotemporal variation in immunization performance and population movement patterns are important determinants of historical poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan; however, movement dynamics were less influential in predicting future cases, at a time when the polio map is shrinking. Results from the regression models we present are being used to help plan vaccination campaigns and transit vaccination strategies in Pakistan.

Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience

Following the detection of an infectious disease outbreak, rapid epidemiological assessment is critical for guiding an effective public health response. To understand the transmission dynamics and potential impact of an outbreak, several types of data are necessary. Here we build on experience gained in the West African Ebola epidemic and prior emerging infectious disease outbreaks to set out a checklist of data needed to: (1) quantify severity and transmissibility; (2) characterize heterogeneities in transmission and their determinants; and (3) assess the effectiveness of different interventions. We differentiate data needs into individual-level data (e.g. a detailed list of reported cases), exposure data (e.g. identifying where/how cases may have been infected) and population-level data (e.g. size/demographics of the population(s) affected and when/where interventions were implemented). A remarkable amount of individual-level and exposure data was collected during the West African Ebola epidemic, which allowed the assessment of (1) and (2). However, gaps in population-level data (particularly around which interventions were applied when and where) posed challenges to the assessment of (3). Here we highlight recurrent data issues, give practical suggestions for addressing these issues and discuss priorities for improvements in data collection in future outbreaks.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'.

Population Immunity against Serotype-2 Poliomyelitis Leading up to the Global Withdrawal of the Oral Poliovirus Vaccine: Spatio-temporal Modelling of Surveillance Data

BACKGROUND

Global withdrawal of serotype-2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) took place in April 2016. This marked a milestone in global polio eradication and was a public health intervention of unprecedented scale, affecting 155 countries. Achieving high levels of serotype-2 population immunity before OPV2 withdrawal was critical to avoid subsequent outbreaks of serotype-2 vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPV2s).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In August 2015, we estimated vaccine-induced population immunity against serotype-2 poliomyelitis for 1 January 2004-30 June 2015 and produced forecasts for April 2016 by district in Nigeria and Pakistan. Population immunity was estimated from the vaccination histories of children <36 mo old identified with non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) reported through polio surveillance, information on immunisation activities with different oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) formulations, and serotype-specific estimates of the efficacy of these OPVs against poliomyelitis. District immunity estimates were spatio-temporally smoothed using a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Coverage estimates for immunisation activities were also obtained, allowing for heterogeneity within and among districts. Forward projections of immunity, based on these estimates and planned immunisation activities, were produced through to April 2016 using a cohort model. Estimated population immunity was negatively correlated with the probability of VDPV2 poliomyelitis being reported in a district. In Nigeria and Pakistan, declines in immunity during 2008-2009 and 2012-2013, respectively, were associated with outbreaks of VDPV2. Immunity has since improved in both countries as a result of increased use of trivalent OPV, and projections generally indicated sustained or improved immunity in April 2016, such that the majority of districts (99% [95% uncertainty interval 97%-100%] in Nigeria and 84% [95% uncertainty interval 77%-91%] in Pakistan) had >70% population immunity among children <36 mo old. Districts with lower immunity were clustered in northeastern Nigeria and northwestern Pakistan. The accuracy of immunity estimates was limited by the small numbers of non-polio AFP cases in some districts, which was reflected by large uncertainty intervals. Forecasted improvements in immunity for April 2016 were robust to the uncertainty in estimates of baseline immunity (January-June 2015), vaccine coverage, and vaccine efficacy.

CONCLUSIONS

Immunity against serotype-2 poliomyelitis was forecasted to improve in April 2016 compared to the first half of 2015 in Nigeria and Pakistan. These analyses informed the endorsement of OPV2 withdrawal in April 2016 by the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization.

A spatial model of Wild Poliovirus Type 1 in Kano State, Nigeria: calibration and assessment of elimination probability

BACKGROUND

Since the launch of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, all but three countries (Nigeria, Pakistan, and Afghanistan) have apparently interrupted all wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission, and only one of three wild serotypes has been reported globally since 2012. Countrywide supplemental immunization campaigns in Nigeria produced dramatic reduction in WPV Type 1 paralysis cases since 2010 compared to the 2000's, and WPV1 has not been observed in Nigeria since July 24, 2014. This article presents the development and calibration of a spatial metapopulation model of wild poliovirus Type 1 transmission in Kano State, Nigeria, which was the location of the most recent WPV1 case and 5 out of 6 of the reported WPV1 paralytic cases in Nigeria in 2014.

METHODS

The model is calibrated to data on the case counts and age at onset of paralysis from 2003-2009. The features of the data drive model development from a simple susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered (SEIR) model to a spatial metapopulation model featuring seasonal forcing and age-dependent transmission. The calibrated parameter space is then resampled, projected forward, and compared to more recent case counts to estimate the probability that Type 1 poliovirus has been eliminated in Kano state.

RESULTS

The model indicates a 91 % probability that Type 1 poliovirus has been eliminated from Kano state as of October 2015. This probability rises to >99 % if no WPV1 paralysis cases are detected for another year. The other states in Nigeria have experienced even longer case-free periods (the only other state with a WPV1 case was Yobe, on April 19, 2014), and Nigeria is the last remaining country in Africa to experience endemic WPV1 transmission, so these results can be interpreted as an upper bound on the probability that WPV1 transmission is currently interrupted continent-wide.

CONCLUSIONS

While the results indicate optimism that WPV1 transmission has been interrupted in Kano state, the model also assumes that frequent SIAs with high coverage continue to take place in Kano state through the end of the certification period. We conclude that though WPV1 appears to be on the brink of continent-wide elimination (WHO officially removed Nigeria from the list of polio-endemic countries on September 25, 2015), it is important for the polio program to maintain vigilance in surveillance and vaccination activities to prevent WPV1 resurgence through the WHO's 3-year eradication certification period.

Spatial Dynamics and High Risk Transmission Pathways of Poliovirus in Nigeria 2001-2013

The polio eradication programme in Nigeria has been successful in reducing incidence to just six confirmed cases in 2014 and zero to date in 2015, but prediction and management of future outbreaks remains a concern. A Poisson mixed effects model was used to describe poliovirus spread between January 2001 and November 2013, incorporating the strength of connectivity between districts (local government areas, LGAs) as estimated by three models of human mobility: simple distance, gravity and radiation models. Potential explanatory variables associated with the case numbers in each LGA were investigated and the model fit was tested by simulation. Spatial connectivity, the number of non-immune children under five years old, and season were associated with the incidence of poliomyelitis in an LGA (all P < 0.001). The best-fitting spatial model was the radiation model, outperforming the simple distance and gravity models (likelihood ratio test P < 0.05), under which the number of people estimated to move from an infected LGA to an uninfected LGA was strongly associated with the incidence of poliomyelitis in that LGA. We inferred transmission networks between LGAs based on this model and found these to be highly local, largely restricted to neighbouring LGAs (e.g. 67.7% of secondary spread from Kano was expected to occur within 10 km). The remaining secondary spread occurred along routes of high population movement. Poliovirus transmission in Nigeria is predominantly localised, occurring between spatially contiguous areas. Outbreak response should be guided by knowledge of high-probability pathways to ensure vulnerable children are protected.

Towards people-centred health systems: a multi-level framework for analysing primary health care governance in low- and middle-income countries

Although there is evidence that non-government health system actors can individually or collectively develop practical strategies to address primary health care (PHC) challenges in the community, existing frameworks for analysing health system governance largely focus on the role of governments, and do not sufficiently account for the broad range of contribution to PHC governance. This is important because of the tendency for weak governments in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We present a multi-level governance framework for use as a thinking guide in analysing PHC governance in LMICs. This framework has previously been used to analyse the governance of common-pool resources such as community fisheries and irrigation systems. We apply the framework to PHC because, like common-pool resources, PHC facilities in LMICs tend to be commonly owned by the community such that individual and collective action is often required to avoid the ‘tragedy of the commons’—destruction and degradation of the resource resulting from lack of concern for its continuous supply. In the multi-level framework, PHC governance is conceptualized at three levels, depending on who influences the supply and demand of PHC services in a community and how: operational governance (individuals and providers within the local health market), collective governance (community coalitions) and constitutional governance (governments at different levels and other distant but influential actors). Using the example of PHC governance in Nigeria, we illustrate how the multi-level governance framework offers a people-centred lens on the governance of PHC in LMICs, with a focus on relations among health system actors within and between levels of governance. We demonstrate the potential impact of health system actors functioning at different levels of governance on PHC delivery, and how governance failure at one level can be assuaged by governance at another level.

Barriers and Recommended Interventions to Prevent Melioidosis in Northeast Thailand: A Focus Group Study Using the Behaviour Change Wheel

Background

Melioidosis, an often fatal infectious disease in Northeast Thailand, is caused by skin inoculation, inhalation or ingestion of the environmental bacterium, Burkholderia pseudomallei. The major underlying risk factor for melioidosis is diabetes mellitus. Recommendations for melioidosis prevention include using protective gear such as rubber boots and gloves when in direct contact with soil and environmental water, and consuming bottled or boiled water. Only a small proportion of people follow such recommendations.

Methods

Nine focus group discussions were conducted to evaluate barriers to adopting recommended preventive behaviours. A total of 76 diabetic patients from northeast Thailand participated in focus group sessions. Barriers to adopting the recommended preventive behaviours and future intervention strategies were identified using two frameworks: the Theoretical Domains Framework and the Behaviour Change Wheel.

Results

Barriers were identified in the following five domains: (i) knowledge, (ii) beliefs about consequences, (iii) intention and goals, (iv) environmental context and resources, and (v) social influence. Of 76 participants, 72 (95%) had never heard of melioidosis. Most participants saw no harm in not adopting recommended preventive behaviours, and perceived rubber boots and gloves to be hot and uncomfortable while working in muddy rice fields. Participants reported that they normally followed the behaviour of friends, family and their community, the majority of whom did not wear boots while working in rice fields and did not boil water before drinking. Eight intervention functions were identified as relevant for the intervention: (i) education, (ii) persuasion, (iii) incentivisation, (iv) coercion, (v) modeling, (vi) environmental restructuring, (vii) training, and (viii) enablement. Participants noted that input from role models in the form of physicians, diabetic clinics, friends and families, and from the government via mass media would be required for them to change their behaviours.

Conclusion

There are numerous barriers to the adoption of behaviours recommended for melioidosis prevention. We recommend that a multifaceted intervention at community and government level is required to achieve the desired behaviour changes.

Melioidosis is a serious infectious disease caused by the Gram-negative environmental saprophyte, Burkholderia pseudomallei. Infection in humans occurs following skin inoculation, inhalation or ingestion. Recommendations for melioidosis prevention include using protective gear such as rubber boots and gloves when in direct contact with soil and environmental water, and consuming bottled or boiled water. Northeast Thailand is a hot spot for melioidosis, but only a small proportion of people follow such recommendations. Here, we evaluated barriers to the adoption of preventive behaviours in diabetics (who are at highest risk for melioidosis), and systematically identified key functions required for future interventions. Our study participants had no knowledge of the disease, believed that there was no harm in not adopting the recommended preventive behaviours, and were not inclined to use boots and gloves while working in muddy rice fields. Participants reported that input from numerous role models (physicians, diabetic clinics, friends and families), and from the government via mass media would be required for them to change their behaviours. We recommend that a multifaceted intervention at community and government level is required to bring about the desired changes.

Eradication and Current Status of Poliomyelitis in Pakistan: Ground Realities

Pakistan is among the last three countries along with Afghanistan and Nigeria, where polio virus is still endemic. More or less, with some fluctuations, numbers of reported cases in the past few years have shown a rising trend. Year 2014 pushed the country into the deep sea of difficulties, as number of cases rose to red alert level of 328. Security situation has adversely affected the whole immunization coverage campaign. In a country where 40 polio vaccinators have been killed since 2012, such a big number of cases is not a surprising outcome. Worse perception of parents about polio vaccine as in Karachi and FATA, the high risk zones, makes 100% coverage a dream. Minor and perhaps delayed payments to polio workers make them frustrated, resulting in decline of trained manpower for vaccination. Strong implementation of policies is required and those found guilty of attack on polio workers need to be punished. Targeted community awareness programme, strong surveillance network, and involvement of influential religious entities can help to root out polio disease from country. Present review is aimed at analyzing all barriers on the road to success in eradication of polio from Pakistan.

Preventing Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Emergence during the Polio Endgame

Reversion and spread of vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) to cause outbreaks of poliomyelitis is a rare outcome resulting from immunisation with the live-attenuated oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs). Global withdrawal of all three OPV serotypes is therefore a key objective of the polio endgame strategic plan, starting with serotype 2 (OPV2) in April 2016. Supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) with trivalent OPV (tOPV) in advance of this date could mitigate the risks of OPV2 withdrawal by increasing serotype-2 immunity, but may also create new serotype-2 VDPV (VDPV2). Here, we examine the risk factors for VDPV2 emergence and implications for the strategy of tOPV SIAs prior to OPV2 withdrawal. We first developed mathematical models of VDPV2 emergence and spread. We found that in settings with low routine immunisation coverage, the implementation of a single SIA increases the risk of VDPV2 emergence. If routine coverage is 20%, at least 3 SIAs are needed to bring that risk close to zero, and if SIA coverage is low or there are persistently "missed" groups, the risk remains high despite the implementation of multiple SIAs. We then analysed data from Nigeria on the 29 VDPV2 emergences that occurred during 2004-2014. Districts reporting the first case of poliomyelitis associated with a VDPV2 emergence were compared to districts with no VDPV2 emergence in the same 6-month period using conditional logistic regression. In agreement with the model results, the odds of VDPV2 emergence decreased with higher routine immunisation coverage (odds ratio 0.67 for a 10% absolute increase in coverage [95% confidence interval 0.55-0.82]). We also found that the probability of a VDPV2 emergence resulting in poliomyelitis in >1 child was significantly higher in districts with low serotype-2 population immunity. Our results support a strategy of focused tOPV SIAs before OPV2 withdrawal in areas at risk of VDPV2 emergence and in sufficient number to raise population immunity above the threshold permitting VDPV2 circulation. A failure to implement this risk-based approach could mean these SIAs actually increase the risk of VDPV2 emergence and spread.

Polio eradication efforts in regions of geopolitical strife: the Boko Haram threat to efforts in sub-Saharan Africa

The World Health Organization aims to eradicate wild poliovirus worldwide by the end of 2018. Cameroon and Nigeria, neighboring countries, have been affected by the terrorist and militant activities of the Islamist sect Boko Haram. Impacted regions are mainly the far North of Cameroon and Northern Nigeria. Targets of Boko Haram aggression in these zones include violence against polio workers, disruption of polio immunization campaigns, with consequent reduced access to health care and immunization. In addition to this significant problem, Northern Nigeria has historically seen rejection of polio virus vaccine initiatives. It remains to know how health systems can continue operations against polio in areas where Boko Haram operates. If appropriate measures are not urgently taken, it will be not possible to meet the 2018 goal of polio virus eradication. The response should include specialized immunization activities in conflict zones, will engagement of leaders. Countries should also explore immunization activities by soldiers and military personnel.

Analysis of vaccination campaign effectiveness and population immunity to support and sustain polio elimination in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

The world is closer than ever to a polio-free Africa. In this end-stage, it is important to ensure high levels of population immunity to prevent polio outbreaks. Here, we introduce a new method of assessing vaccination campaign effectiveness and estimating immunity at the district-level. We demonstrate how this approach can be used to plan the vaccination campaigns prospectively to better manage population immunity in Northern Nigeria.

METHODS

Using Nigerian acute flaccid paralysis surveillance data from 2004-2014, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model of campaign effectiveness and compared it to lot-quality assurance sampling data. We then used reconstructed sero-specific population immunity based on campaign history and compared district estimates of immunity to the occurrence of confirmed poliovirus cases.

RESULTS

Estimated campaign effectiveness has improved across northern Nigeria since 2004, with Kano state experiencing an increase of 40 % (95 % CI, 26-54 %) in effectiveness from 2013 to 2014. Immunity to type 1 poliovirus has increased steadily. On the other hand, type 2 immunity was low and variable until the recent use of trivalent oral polio vaccine. We find that immunity estimates are related to the occurrence of both wild and vaccine-derived poliovirus cases and that campaign effectiveness correlates with direct measurements using lot-quality assurance sampling. Future campaign schedules highlight the trade-offs involved with using different vaccine types.

CONCLUSIONS

The model in this study provides a novel method for assessing vaccination campaign performance and epidemiologically-relevant estimates of population immunity. Small-area estimates of campaign effectiveness can then be used to evaluate prospective campaign plans. This modeling approach could be applied to other countries as well as other vaccine preventable diseases.

Access to Routine Immunization: A Comparative Analysis of Supply-Side Disparities between Northern and Southern Nigeria

Background

The available data on routine immunization in Nigeria show a disparity in coverage between Northern and Southern Nigeria, with the former performing worse. The effect of socio-cultural differences on health-seeking behaviour has been identified in the literature as the main cause of the disparity. Our study analyses the role of supply-side determinants, particularly access to services, in causing these disparities.

Methods

Using routine government data, we compared supply-side determinants of access in two Northern states with two Southern states. The states were identified using criteria-based purposive selection such that the comparisons were made between a low-coverage state in the South and a low-coverage state in the North as well as between a high-coverage state in the South and a high-coverage state in the North.

Results

Human resources and commodities at routine immunization service delivery points were generally insufficient for service delivery in both geographical regions. While disparities were evident between individual states irrespective of regional location, compared to the South, residents in Northern Nigeria were more likely to have vaccination service delivery points located within a 5km radius of their settlements.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that regional supply-side disparities are not apparent, reinforcing the earlier reported socio-cultural explanations for disparities in routine immunization service uptake between Northern and Southern Nigeria. Nonetheless, improving routine immunisation coverage services require that there are available human resources and that health facilities are equitably distributed.

A New Method for Estimating the Coverage of Mass Vaccination Campaigns Against Poliomyelitis From Surveillance Data

Mass vaccination campaigns with the oral poliovirus vaccine targeting children aged <5 years are a critical component of the global poliomyelitis eradication effort. Monitoring the coverage of these campaigns is essential to allow corrective action, but current approaches are limited by their cross-sectional nature, nonrandom sampling, reporting biases, and accessibility issues. We describe a new Bayesian framework using data augmentation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate variation in vaccination coverage from children's vaccination histories investigated during surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis. We tested the method using simulated data with at least 200 cases and were able to detect undervaccinated groups if they exceeded 10% of all children and temporal changes in coverage of ±10% with greater than 90% sensitivity. Application of the method to data from Pakistan for 2010–2011 identified undervaccinated groups within the Balochistan/Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions, as well as temporal changes in coverage. The sizes of these groups are consistent with the multiple challenges faced by the program in these regions as a result of conflict and insecurity. Application of this new method to routinely collected data can be a useful tool for identifying poorly performing areas and assisting in eradication efforts.

Sabin Vaccine Reversion in the Field: a Comprehensive Analysis of Sabin-Like Poliovirus Isolates in Nigeria

To assess the dynamics of genetic reversion of live poliovirus vaccine in humans, we studied molecular evolution in Sabin-like poliovirus isolates from Nigerian acute flaccid paralysis cases obtained from routine surveillance. We employed a novel modeling approach to infer substitution and recombination rates from whole-genome sequences and information about poliovirus infection dynamics and the individual vaccination history. We confirmed observations from a recent vaccine trial that VP1 substitution rates are increased for Sabin-like isolates relative to the rate for the wild type due to increased nonsynonymous substitution rates. We also inferred substitution rates for attenuating nucleotides and confirmed that reversion can occur in days to weeks after vaccination. We combine our observations for Sabin-like virus evolution with the molecular clock for VP1 of circulating wild-type strains to infer that the mean time from the initiating vaccine dose to the earliest detection of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) is 300 days for Sabin-like virus type 1, 210 days for Sabin-like virus type 2, and 390 days for Sabin-like virus type 3. Phylogenetic relationships indicated transient local transmission of Sabin-like virus type 3 and, possibly, Sabin-like virus type 1 during periods of low wild polio incidence. Comparison of Sabin-like virus recombinants with known Nigerian vaccine-derived poliovirus recombinants shows that while recombination with non-Sabin enteroviruses is associated with cVDPV, the recombination rates are similar for Sabin isolate-Sabin isolate and Sabin isolate-non-Sabin enterovirus recombination after accounting for the time from dosing to the time of detection. Our study provides a comprehensive picture of the evolutionary dynamics of the oral polio vaccine in the field.

IMPORTANCE

The global polio eradication effort has completed its 26th year. Despite success in eliminating wild poliovirus from most of the world, polio persists in populations where logistical, social, and political factors have not allowed vaccination programs of sustained high quality. One issue of critical importance is eliminating circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) that have properties indistinguishable from those of wild poliovirus and can cause paralytic disease. cVDPV emerges due to the genetic instability of the Sabin viruses used in the oral polio vaccine (OPV) in populations that have low levels of immunity to poliovirus. However, the dynamics responsible are incompletely understood because it has historically been difficult to gather and interpret data about evolution of the Sabin viruses used in OPV in regions where cVDPV has occurred. This study is the first to combine whole-genome sequencing of poliovirus isolates collected during routine surveillance with knowledge about the intrahost dynamics of poliovirus to provide quantitative insight into polio vaccine evolution in the field.

Islamist insurgency and the war against polio: a cross-national analysis of the political determinants of polio

Background

There is widespread agreement that civil war obstructs efforts to eradicate polio. It is suggested that Islamist insurgents have a particularly negative effect on vaccination programmes, but this claim is controversial.

Methods

We analyse cross-national data for the period 2003–14 using negative binomial regressions to investigate the relationship between Islamist and non-Islamist insurgency and the global distribution of polio. The dependent variable is the annual number of polio cases in a country according to the WHO. Insurgency is operationalized as armed conflict between the state and an insurgent organization resulting in ≥25 battle deaths per year according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme. Insurgencies are divided into Islamist and non-Islamist insurgencies. We control for other possible explanatory variables.

Results

Islamist insurgency did not have a significant positive relationship with polio throughout the whole period. But in the past few years – since the assassination of Osama bin Laden in 2011– Islamist insurgency has had a strong effect on where polio cases occur. The evidence for a relationship between non-Islamist insurgency and polio is less compelling and where there is a relationship it is either spurious or driven by ecological fallacy.

Conclusions

Only particular forms of internal armed conflict – those prosecuted by Islamist insurgents – explain the current global distribution of polio. The variation over time in the relationship between Islamist insurgency and polio suggests that Islamist insurgent’s hostility to polio vaccinations programmes is not the result of their theology, as the core tenets of Islam have not changed over the period of the study. Rather, our analysis indicates that it is a plausibly a reaction to the counterinsurgency strategies used against Islamist insurgents. The assassination of Osama bin Laden and the use of drone strikes seemingly vindicated Islamist insurgents’ suspicions that immunization drives are a cover for espionage activities.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12992-015-0123-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Has Wild Poliovirus Been Eliminated from Nigeria?

Wild poliovirus type 3 (WPV3) has not been seen anywhere since the last case of WPV3-associated paralysis in Nigeria in November 2012. At the time of writing, the most recent case of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) in Nigeria occurred in July 2014, and WPV1 has not been seen in Africa since a case in Somalia in August 2014. No cases associated with circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2) have been detected in Nigeria since November 2014. Has WPV1 been eliminated from Africa? Has WPV3 been eradicated globally? Has Nigeria interrupted cVDPV2 transmission? These questions are difficult because polio surveillance is based on paralysis and paralysis only occurs in a small fraction of infections. This report provides estimates for the probabilities of poliovirus elimination in Nigeria given available data as of March 31, 2015. It is based on a model of disease transmission that is built from historical polio incidence rates and is designed to represent the uncertainties in transmission dynamics and poliovirus detection that are fundamental to interpreting long time periods without cases. The model estimates that, as of March 31, 2015, the probability of WPV1 elimination in Nigeria is 84%, and that if WPV1 has not been eliminated, a new case will be detected with 99% probability by the end of 2015. The probability of WPV3 elimination (and thus global eradication) is > 99%. However, it is unlikely that the ongoing transmission of cVDPV2 has been interrupted; the probability of cVDPV2 elimination rises to 83% if no new cases are detected by April 2016.

Impact of inactivated poliovirus vaccine on mucosal immunity: implications for the polio eradication endgame

The polio eradication endgame aims to bring transmission of all polioviruses to a halt. To achieve this aim, it is essential to block viral replication in individuals via induction of a robust mucosal immune response. Although it has long been recognized that inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) is incapable of inducing a strong mucosal response on its own, it has recently become clear that IPV may boost immunity in the intestinal mucosa among individuals previously immunized with oral poliovirus vaccine. Indeed, mucosal protection appears to be stronger following a booster dose of IPV than oral poliovirus vaccine, especially in older children. Here, we review the available evidence regarding the impact of IPV on mucosal immunity, and consider the implications of this evidence for the polio eradication endgame. We conclude that the implementation of IPV in both routine and supplementary immunization activities has the potential to play a key role in halting poliovirus transmission, and thereby hasten the eradication of polio.

From intense rejection to advocacy: how Muslim clerics were engaged in a polio eradication initiative in Northern Nigeria

Gambo Aliyu and colleagues describe an approach to eradicating polio in Northern Nigeria by engaging Muslim clerics in influencing community perceptions. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Predictive spatial risk model of poliovirus to aid prioritization and hasten eradication in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

One of the challenges facing the Global Polio Eradication Initiative is efficiently directing limited resources, such as specially trained personnel, community outreach activities, and satellite vaccinator tracking, to the most at-risk areas to maximize the impact of interventions. A validated predictive model of wild poliovirus circulation would greatly inform prioritization efforts by accurately forecasting areas at greatest risk, thus enabling the greatest effect of program interventions.

METHODS

Using Nigerian acute flaccid paralysis surveillance data from 2004-2013, we developed a spatial hierarchical Poisson hurdle model fitted within a Bayesian framework to study historical polio caseload patterns and forecast future circulation of type 1 and 3 wild poliovirus within districts in Nigeria. A Bayesian temporal smoothing model was applied to address data sparsity underlying estimates of covariates at the district level.

RESULTS

We find that calculated vaccine-derived population immunity is significantly negatively associated with the probability and number of wild poliovirus case(s) within a district. Recent case information is significantly positively associated with probability of a case, but not the number of cases. We used lagged indicators and coefficients from the fitted models to forecast reported cases in the subsequent six-month periods. Over the past three years, the average predictive ability is 86 ± 2% and 85 ± 4% for wild poliovirus type 1 and 3, respectively. Interestingly, the predictive accuracy of historical transmission patterns alone is equivalent (86 ± 2% and 84 ± 4% for type 1 and 3, respectively). We calculate uncertainty in risk ranking to inform assessments of changes in rank between time periods.

CONCLUSIONS

The model developed in this study successfully predicts districts at risk for future wild poliovirus cases in Nigeria. The highest predicted district risk was 12.8 WPV1 cases in 2006, while the lowest district risk was 0.001 WPV1 cases in 2013. Model results have been used to direct the allocation of many different interventions, including political and religious advocacy visits. This modeling approach could be applied to other vaccine preventable diseases for use in other control and elimination programs.