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Reiner RC, Olsen HE, Ikeda CT, Echko MM, Ballestreros KE, Manguerra H, Martopullo I, Millear A, Shields C, Smith A, Strub B, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Akibu M, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Guzman N, Antonio CAT, Aremu O, Asgedom SW, Asseffa NA, Avila-Burgos L, Barac A, Bärnighausen TW, Bassat Q, Bensenor IM, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bililign N, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Malta DC, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Dharmaratne SD, Doku DT, Edessa D, El-Khatib Z, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fullman N, Gupta R, Hassen HY, Hay SI, Ilesanmi OS, Jacobsen KH, Kahsay A, Kasaeian A, Kassa TD, Kebede S, Khader YS, Khan EA, Khan MN, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Kinfu Y, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Koyanagi A, Defo BK, Lal DK, Kumsa FA, Larson HJ, Leung J, Mamun AA, Mehata S, Melku M, Mendoza W, Mezgebe HB, Miller TR, Moges NA, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Neupane S, Nguyen HLT, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nong VM, Ogbo FA, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Patton GC, Pereira DM, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rai RK, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Renzaho AMN, Rezai MS, Ronfani L, Roth GA, Safiri S, Sartorius B, Scott JG, Shackelford KA, Sliwa K, Sreeramareddy C, Sufiyan MB, Terkawi AS, Topor-Madry R, Tran BX, Ukwaja KN, Uthman OA, Vollset SE, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Yonemoto N, Yotebieng M, Zuhlke LJ, Kyu HH, Naghavi M, Vos T, Murray CJL, Kassebaum NJ. Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors in Child and Adolescent Health, 1990 to 2017: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 Study. JAMA Pediatr 2019; 173:e190337. [PMID: 31034019 PMCID: PMC6547084 DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2019.0337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 113] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Understanding causes and correlates of health loss among children and adolescents can identify areas of success, stagnation, and emerging threats and thereby facilitate effective improvement strategies. OBJECTIVE To estimate mortality and morbidity in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2017 by age and sex in 195 countries and territories. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes using standardized approaches to data processing and statistical analysis. It also describes epidemiologic transitions by evaluating historical associations between disease indicators and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and fertility. Data collected from 1990 to 2017 on children and adolescents from birth through 19 years of age in 195 countries and territories were assessed. Data analysis occurred from January 2018 to August 2018. EXPOSURES Being under the age of 20 years between 1990 and 2017. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Death and disability. All-cause and cause-specific deaths, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, and years of life lived with disability. RESULTS Child and adolescent deaths decreased 51.7% from 13.77 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 13.60-13.93 million) in 1990 to 6.64 million (95% UI, 6.44-6.87 million) in 2017, but in 2017, aggregate disability increased 4.7% to a total of 145 million (95% UI, 107-190 million) years lived with disability globally. Progress was uneven, and inequity increased, with low-SDI and low-middle-SDI locations experiencing 82.2% (95% UI, 81.6%-82.9%) of deaths, up from 70.9% (95% UI, 70.4%-71.4%) in 1990. The leading disaggregated causes of disability-adjusted life years in 2017 in the low-SDI quintile were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, malaria, and congenital birth defects, whereas neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, headache, dermatitis, and anxiety were highest-ranked in the high-SDI quintile. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Mortality reductions over this 27-year period mean that children are more likely than ever to reach their 20th birthdays. The concomitant expansion of nonfatal health loss and epidemiological transition in children and adolescents, especially in low-SDI and middle-SDI countries, has the potential to increase already overburdened health systems, will affect the human capital potential of societies, and may influence the trajectory of socioeconomic development. Continued monitoring of child and adolescent health loss is crucial to sustain the progress of the past 27 years.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Robert C. Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | | | - Helen Manguerra
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
| | - Ira Martopullo
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
| | - Anoushka Millear
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
| | - Chloe Shields
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
| | - Alison Smith
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
| | - Bryan Strub
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
| | - Molla Abebe
- Department of Clinical Chemistry, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | - Zegeye Abebe
- Department of Human Nutrition, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | | | - Tara Ballav Adhikari
- Nepal Health Research Environment, Center for Social Science and Public Health Research Nepal, Lalitpur, Nepal
- Unit for Health Promotion Research, University of Southern Denmark, Esbjerg, Denmark
| | - Mohammed Akibu
- Department of Midwifery, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia
| | - Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi
- Department of Family and Community Medicine, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Nelson Alvis-Guzman
- Research Group on Health Economics, University of Cartagena, Cartagena, Colombia
- Research Group on Hospital Management and Health Policies, University of the Coast, Barranquilla, Colombia
| | - Carl Abelardo T. Antonio
- Department of Health Policy and Administration, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines
- Department of Applied Social Sciences, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong
| | - Olatunde Aremu
- School of Health Sciences, Birmingham City University, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Leticia Avila-Burgos
- Center for Health Systems Research, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
| | - Aleksandra Barac
- Clinic for Infectious and Tropical Diseases, Clinical Center of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Till W. Bärnighausen
- Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Quique Bassat
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, Manhiça Health Research Center, Manhiça, Mozambique
| | | | - Zulfiqar A. Bhutta
- The Centre for Global Child Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Center of Excellence in Women and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Ali Bijani
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | | | - Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado
- Center for Health Systems Research, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
| | - Deborah Carvalho Malta
- Department of Maternal and Child Nursing and Public Health, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Jung-Chen Chang
- College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Fiona J. Charlson
- School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
| | - David Teye Doku
- Department of Population and Health, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
- Faculty of Social Sciences, Health Sciences, University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland
| | - Dumessa Edessa
- School of Pharmacy, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Ziad El-Khatib
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Holly E. Erskine
- School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Alize J. Ferrari
- School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Nancy Fullman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
| | - Rahul Gupta
- West Virginia Bureau for Public Health, Charleston, West Virginia
- Department of Health Policy, Management, and Leadership, West Virginia University, Morgantown
| | - Hamid Yimam Hassen
- Public Health Department, Mizan-Tepi University, Teppi, Ethiopia
- Unit of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University Hospital Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Simon I. Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Kathryn H. Jacobsen
- Department of Global and Community Health, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
| | - Amaha Kahsay
- Department of Nutrition and Dietetics, Mekelle University, Tigray, Ethiopia
| | - Amir Kasaeian
- Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Hematologic Malignancies Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Seifu Kebede
- Midwifery Program, Salale University, Fiche, Ethiopia
| | - Yousef Saleh Khader
- Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Ramtha, Jordan
| | - Ejaz Ahmad Khan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Mohammed Nuruzzaman Khan
- School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia
- Department of Population Sciences, Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh
| | - Young-Ho Khang
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
- Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Jagdish Khubchandani
- Department of Nutrition and Health Science, Ball State University, Muncie, Indiana
| | - Yohannes Kinfu
- Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
- Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Sonali Kochhar
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Yoshihiro Kokubo
- Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
| | - Ai Koyanagi
- Research and Development Unit, San Juan de Dios Sanitary Park, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Barcelona
| | - Barthelemy Kuate Defo
- Department of Demography, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | | | - Fekede Asefa Kumsa
- Center for Midwifery, Child, and Family Health, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- School of Public Health, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Heidi J. Larson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Janni Leung
- Center for Youth Substance Abuse Research, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Abdullah A. Mamun
- Institute for Social Science Research, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Suresh Mehata
- Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation, Ipas Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Mulugeta Melku
- Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | - Walter Mendoza
- Peru Country Office, United Nations Population Fund, Lima, Peru
| | | | - Ted R. Miller
- Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland
- School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | | | - Shafiu Mohammed
- Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Health Systems and Policy Research Unit, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
| | - Ali H. Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Lorenzo Monasta
- Clinical Epidemiology and Public Health Research Unit, Burlo Garofolo Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy
| | - Subas Neupane
- Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland
| | | | - Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum
- Department of Public Health Science, State University of Semarang, Kota Semarang, Indonesia
- Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | | | - Vuong Minh Nong
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Felix Akpojene Ogbo
- Translational Health Research Institute, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Andrew T. Olagunju
- Department of Psychiatry,University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
| | | | | | - George C. Patton
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Population Health Group, Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - David M. Pereira
- Rede de Química e Tecnologia/Laboratório Asociado do Química Verde, University of Porto, Oporto, Portugal
- Cartagena University, Cartagena, Colombia
| | - Farshad Pourmalek
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Mostafa Qorbani
- Noncommunicable Diseases Research Center, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Anwar Rafay
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Rajesh Kumar Rai
- Society for Health and Demographic Surveillance, Suri, India
- Department of Economics, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Usha Ram
- Department of Public Health and Mortality Studies, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
| | - Chhabi Lal Ranabhat
- Institute for Poverty Alleviation and International Development, Yonsei University, Wonju, South Korea
| | - Andre M. N. Renzaho
- School of Social Sciences and Psychology, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Luca Ronfani
- Clinical Epidemiology and Public Health Research Unit, Burlo Garofolo Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy
| | - Gregory A. Roth
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
- Division of Cardiology, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Saeid Safiri
- Managerial Epidemiology Research Center, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
| | - Benn Sartorius
- Department of Public Health Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - James G. Scott
- School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Child and Youth Mental Health, Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Karen Sliwa
- Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
| | | | | | - Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi
- Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville
- Syrian Expatriate Medical Association, Charlottesville, Virginia
| | - Roman Topor-Madry
- Institute for Public Health, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, Poland
- Agency for Health Technology Assessment and Tariff System, Warszawa, Poland
| | - Bach Xuan Tran
- Department of Health Economics, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | - Olalekan A. Uthman
- Division of Health Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Stein Emil Vollset
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Andrea Werdecker
- Demographic Change and Ageing Research Area, Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany
- Independent Consultant, Staufenberg, Germany
| | - Harvey A. Whiteford
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
- The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Tissa Wijeratne
- Department of Medicine, University of Melbourne, St Albans, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Psychology, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Naohiro Yonemoto
- Department of Psychopharmacology, National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Marcel Yotebieng
- College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus
- School of Public Health, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Liesl J. Zuhlke
- Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
| | - Hmwe Hmwe Kyu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Christopher J. L. Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Nicholas J. Kassebaum
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
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