Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Violent conflict and the demand for healthcare: How armed conflict reduces trust, instills fear, and increases child mortality

What are the health effects of violent conflict? It is well known that wars kill civilians away from the battlefield and long after the fighting has stopped. Yet why this happens remains only partially understood. While we have good evidence that factors such as the destruction of infrastructure, political neglect, and the out-migration of health workers - what may be called supply-side factors - negatively affect health outcomes, we know much less about how violence shapes the attitudes and behavior towards healthcare use among civilians exposed to violent conflict - what may be called demand-side factors. Here, I theorize that exposure to violence suppresses civilian demand for healthcare through two mediating channels - mistrust of government institutions and fear of future violence - with adverse consequences for health outcomes, particularly child health. To test this theory empirically, I combine information from over 80,000 interviews conducted in 22 conflict-affected countries in Africa with individual- and context-level measures of exposure to violent conflict. Exposure to violence is associated with significantly lower levels of political trust and increased fear of future violence, which in turn predict lower healthcare utilization, lower immunization rates, and higher infant and child mortality. To fully address the health consequences of armed conflict, it is essential that we better understand the attitudinal and behavioral correlates of exposure to violence.

Measuring breastfeeding prevalence using demographic and health surveys

BACKGROUND

This study aims to investigate the measurement of breastfeeding prevalence indicators using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data, focusing on early initiation, exclusive breastfeeding, and continued breastfeeding indicators as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and on the discrepancies arising from small changes in their definition.

METHODS

Two hundred sixty DHS samples from 78 countries were analyzed to re-calculate usual indicators reported by WHO and UNICEF: early initiation of breastfeeding (EIB), exclusive breastfeeding under 6 months (EBF), and continued breastfeeding between 1 and 2 years (CBF12 and CBF24). Additionally, alternative estimates of the same indicators, slightly changing their definition, were calculated to test their robustness.

RESULTS

The WHO and UNICEF indicators for early initiation (EIB) primarily capture cases where breastfeeding is initiated "immediately" after birth, omitting those initiated within 0 or 1 hour. This discrepancy leads to substantial underestimation of levels in some regions, particularly South Asia, and in trends. Furthermore, sizable discrepancies between exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) indicators arise from the inclusion or exclusion of plain water in the definition, with significant variations across regions, especially in West and Middle Africa. However, continued breastfeeding indicators showed consistency across definitions, proving them robust for international comparisons and time trend estimations.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the importance of understanding how breastfeeding indicators are defined and calculated using DHS data. Researchers should be cautious when using WHO and UNICEF indicators for early initiation and exclusive breastfeeding, as they may underestimate prevalence due to their narrow definition. Continued breastfeeding indicators, on the other hand, are less affected by small changes in definitions and provide reliable measures for cross-country comparisons and trend analyses. These findings underscore the need for standardized robust definitions and transparent reporting of breastfeeding indicators in global health assessments.

Estimating time-varying cholera transmission and oral cholera vaccine effectiveness in Haiti and Cameroon, 2021-2023

In 2023, cholera affected approximately 1 million people and caused more than 5000 deaths globally, predominantly in low-income and conflict settings. In recent years, the number of new cholera outbreaks has grown rapidly. Further, ongoing cholera outbreaks have been exacerbated by conflict, climate change, and poor infrastructure, resulting in prolonged crises. As a result, the demand for treatment and intervention is quickly outpacing existing resource availability. Prior to improved water and sanitation systems, cholera, a disease primarily transmitted via contaminated water sources, also routinely ravaged high-income countries. Crumbling infrastructure and climate change are now putting new locations at risk - even in high-income countries. Thus, understanding the transmission and prevention of cholera is critical. Combating cholera requires multiple interventions, the two most common being behavioral education and water treatment. Two-dose oral cholera vaccination (OCV) is often used as a complement to these interventions. Due to limited supply, countries have recently switched to single-dose vaccines (OCV1). One challenge lies in understanding where to allocate OCV1 in a timely manner, especially in settings lacking well-resourced public health surveillance systems. As cholera occurs and propagates in such locations, timely, accurate, and openly accessible outbreak data are typically inaccessible for disease modeling and subsequent decision-making. In this study, we demonstrated the value of open-access data to rapidly estimate cholera transmission and vaccine effectiveness. Specifically, we obtained non-machine readable (NMR) epidemic curves for recent cholera outbreaks in two countries, Haiti and Cameroon, from figures published in situation and disease outbreak news reports. We used computational digitization techniques to derive weekly counts of cholera cases, resulting in nominal differences when compared against the reported cumulative case counts (i.e., a relative error rate of 5.67% in Haiti and 0.54% in Cameroon). Given these digitized time series, we leveraged EpiEstim-an open-source modeling platform-to derive rapid estimates of time-varying disease transmission via the effective reproduction number (R t ). To compare OCV1 effectiveness in the two considered countries, we additionally used VaxEstim, a recent extension of EpiEstim that facilitates the estimation of vaccine effectiveness via the relation among three inputs: the basic reproduction number (R 0 ),R t , and vaccine coverage. Here, with Haiti and Cameroon as case studies, we demonstrated the first implementation of VaxEstim in low-resource settings. Importantly, we are the first to use VaxEstim with digitized data rather than traditional epidemic surveillance data. In the initial phase of the outbreak, weekly rolling average estimates ofR t were elevated in both countries: 2.60 in Haiti [95% credible interval: 2.42-2.79] and 1.90 in Cameroon [1.14-2.95]. These values are largely consistent with previous estimates ofR 0 in Haiti, where average values have ranged from 1.06 to 3.72, and in Cameroon, where average values have ranged from 1.10 to 3.50. In both Haiti and Cameroon, this initial period of high transmission preceded a longer period during whichR t oscillated around the critical threshold of 1. Our results derived from VaxEstim suggest that Haiti had higher OCV1 effectiveness than Cameroon (75.32% effective [54.00-86.39%] vs. 54.88% [18.94-84.90%]). These estimates of OCV1 effectiveness are generally aligned with those derived from field studies conducted in other countries. Thus, our case study reinforces the validity of VaxEstim as an alternative to costly, time-consuming field studies of OCV1 effectiveness. Indeed, prior work in South Sudan, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported OCV1 effectiveness ranging from approximately 40% to 80%. This work underscores the value of combining NMR sources of outbreak case data with computational techniques and the utility of VaxEstim for rapid, inexpensive estimation of vaccine effectiveness in data-poor outbreak settings.

A situational assessment of treatments received for childhood diarrhea in the Federal Republic of Nigeria

We assess progress towards improved case management of childhood diarrhea in Nigeria over a period of targeted health systems reform from 2013 to 2018. Individual and community data from three Demographic and Health Survey rounds are leveraged in a geospatial model designed for stratified estimation by venue of treatment seeking and State. Our analysis reveals a highly regionalised health system undergoing rapid change. Nationally, there have been substantial increases in the proportion of children under 5 years old with diarrhea receiving the recommended oral rehydration therapy after seeking treatment at either a health clinic (0.57 [0.44-0.69; 95% CI] in 2008; 0.70 [0.54-0.83] in 2018) or chemist/pharmacy (0.28 [0.17-0.42] in 2008; 0.48 [0.31-0.64] in 2018). Yet State-level variations in venue attendance and performance by venue have conspired to hold the overall proportion receiving this potentially life-saving therapy (0.45 [0.35-0.55] in 2018) to well-below ideal coverage levels. High performing states that have demonstrated significant improvements include Kano, Jigawa and Borno, while under-performing states that have suffered declines in coverage include Kaduna and Taraba. The use of antibiotics is not recommended for mild cases of childhood diarrhea yet remains concerningly high nationally (0.27 [0.19-0.36] in 2018) with negligible variation between venues. Antibiotic use rates are particularly high in Enugu, Kaduna, Taraba, Kano, Niger and Kebbi, yet welcome reductions were identified in Jigawa, Adamawa and Osun. These results support the conclusions of previous studies and build the strength of evidence that urgent action is needed throughout the multi-tiered health system to improve the quality and equity of care for common childhood illnesses in Nigeria.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating the subnational prevalence of antimicrobial resistant Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A infections in 75 endemic countries, 1990-2019: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Enteric fever, a systemic infection caused by Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A, remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. Enteric fever is preventable through the provision of clean water and adequate sanitation and can be successfully treated with antibiotics. However, high levels of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) compromise the effectiveness of treatment. We provide estimates of the prevalence of AMR S Typhi and S Paratyphi A in 75 endemic countries, including 30 locations without data.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling framework to estimate the percentage of multidrug resistance (MDR), fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility (FQNS), and third-generation cephalosporin resistance in S Typhi and S Paratyphi A infections for 1403 administrative level one districts in 75 endemic countries from 1990 to 2019. We incorporated data from a comprehensive systematic review, public health surveillance networks, and large multicountry studies on enteric fever. Estimates of the prevalence of AMR and the number of AMR infections (based on enteric fever incidence estimates by the Global Burden of Diseases study) were produced at the country, super-region, and total endemic area level for each year of the study.

FINDINGS

We collated data from 601 sources, comprising 184 225 isolates of S Typhi and S Paratyphi A, covering 45 countries over 30 years. We identified a decline of MDR S Typhi in south Asia and southeast Asia, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, the overall prevalence increased from 6·0% (95% uncertainty interval 4·3-8·0) in 1990 to 72·7% (67·7-77·3) in 2019. Starting from low levels in 1990, the prevalence of FQNS S Typhi increased rapidly, reaching 95·2% (91·4-97·7) in south Asia in 2019. This corresponded to 2·5 million (1·5-3·8) MDR S Typhi infections and 7·4 million (4·7-11·3) FQNS S Typhi infections in endemic countries in 2019. The prevalence of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant S Typhi remained low across the whole endemic area over the study period, except for Pakistan where prevalence of third-generation cephalosporin resistance in S Typhi reached 61·0% (58·0-63·8) in 2019. For S Paratyphi A, we estimated low prevalence of MDR and third-generation cephalosporin resistance in all endemic countries, but a drastic increase of FQNS, which reached 95·0% (93·7-96·1; 3·5 million [2·2-5·6] infections) in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

This study provides a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the prevalence of MDR, FQNS, and third-generation cephalosporin resistance in S Typhi and S Paratyphi A infections in endemic countries, spanning the last 30 years. Our analysis highlights the increasing levels of AMR in this preventable infection and serves as a resource to guide urgently needed public health interventions, such as improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene and typhoid fever vaccination campaigns.

FUNDING

Fleming Fund, UK Department of Health and Social Care; Wellcome Trust; and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of a Homestead Food Production Program on the Prevalence of Diarrhea and Acute Respiratory Infection in Children in Sylhet, Bangladesh: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial

Diarrhea and respiratory illness are leading causes of mortality and morbidity among young children. We assessed the impact of a homestead food production intervention on diarrhea and acute respiratory infection (ARI) in children in Bangladesh, secondary outcomes of the Food and Agricultural Approaches to Reducing Malnutrition (FAARM) cluster-randomized trial. The trial enrolled 2,705 married women and their children 3 years or younger in 96 rural settlements (geographic clusters) in Sylhet Division, Bangladesh. The intervention promoted home gardening and poultry rearing alongside child nutrition and health counseling over 3 years (2015-2018). An 8-month food hygiene behavior change component using emotional drivers was delivered beginning in mid-2017. Caregiver-reported diarrhea and symptoms of ARI in the week preceding the survey were recorded every 2 months. We analyzed 32,460 observations of 3,276 children over 4 years and found that 3.9% of children had diarrhea and 3.4% had an ARI in the prior 7 days. There was no overall effect of the intervention on 7-day diarrhea period prevalence (odds ratio [OR], 0.92; 95% CI, 0.71-1.19), diarrhea point prevalence (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.78-1.36), or 7-day ARI period prevalence (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.88-1.60). There was no impact on diarrhea severity or differences in health-seeking behaviors. Our findings suggest that this homestead food production program was insufficient to reduce morbidity symptoms among children in a rural setting. More comprehensive water, sanitation, and hygiene measures, and behavioral recommendations may be needed to achieve impacts on child health.

The Full Impact of Rotavirus Vaccines in Africa Has Yet to Be Realized

Africa bears the brunt of diarrheal mortality globally. Rotavirus vaccination rates are high across the continent and demonstrate impact on diarrheal disease reduction. Nevertheless, there is room for significant improvement in managing rotavirus vaccine coverage, in access to recognized public services such as appropriate medical care, including oral rehydration therapy and improved water and sanitation.

Management of Diarrhea in Young Children in Sub-Saharan Africa: Adherence to World Health Organization Recommendations During the Global Enteric Multisite Study (2007-2011) and the Vaccine Impact of Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) Study (2015-2018)

BACKGROUND

Reducing diarrhea-related morbidity and mortality is a global priority, particularly in low-resource settings. We assessed adherence to diarrhea case management indicators in the Global Enteric Multisite Study (GEMS) and Vaccine Impact of Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) study.

METHODS

GEMS (2007-2010) and VIDA (2015-2018) were age-stratified case-control studies of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children aged <5 years. In this case-only analysis, we included children enrolled in The Gambia, Kenya, and Mali. A case with no dehydration received adherent care at home if they were offered more than usual fluids and at least the same as usual to eat. Children with diarrhea and some dehydration are to receive oral rehydration salts (ORS) in the facility. The recommendation for severe dehydration is to receive ORS and intravenous fluids in the facility. Adherent care in the facility included a zinc prescription independent of dehydration severity.

RESULTS

For home-based management of children with MSD and no signs of dehydration, 16.6% in GEMS and 15.6% in VIDA were adherent to guidelines. Adherence to guidelines in the facility was likewise low during GEMS (some dehydration, 18.5%; severe dehydration, 5.5%). The adherence to facility-based rehydration and zinc guidelines improved during VIDA to 37.9% of those with some dehydration and 8.0% of children with severe dehydration.

CONCLUSIONS

At research sites in The Gambia, Kenya, and Mali, suboptimal adherence to diarrhea case management guidelines for children aged <5 years was observed. Opportunities exist for improvement in case management for children with diarrhea in low-resource settings.

Assessing Geographic Overlap between Zero-Dose Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Vaccination Prevalence and Other Health Indicators

The integration of immunization with other essential health services is among the strategic priorities of the Immunization Agenda 2030 and has the potential to improve the effectiveness, efficiency, and equity of health service delivery. This study aims to evaluate the degree of spatial overlap between the prevalence of children who have never received a dose of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (no-DTP) and other health-related indicators, to provide insight into the potential for joint geographic targeting of integrated service delivery efforts. Using geospatially modeled estimates of vaccine coverage and comparator indicators, we develop a framework to delineate and compare areas of high overlap across indicators, both within and between countries, and based upon both counts and prevalence. We derive summary metrics of spatial overlap to facilitate comparison between countries and indicators and over time. As an example, we apply this suite of analyses to five countries-Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Angola-and five comparator indicators-children with stunting, under-5 mortality, children missing doses of oral rehydration therapy, prevalence of lymphatic filariasis, and insecticide-treated bed net coverage. Our results demonstrate substantial heterogeneity in the geographic overlap both within and between countries. These results provide a framework to assess the potential for joint geographic targeting of interventions, supporting efforts to ensure that all people, regardless of location, can benefit from vaccines and other essential health services.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Geographic inequalities in health intervention coverage – mapping the composite coverage index in Peru using geospatial modelling

Background

The composite coverage index (CCI) provides an integrated perspective towards universal health coverage in the context of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health. Given the sample design of most household surveys does not provide coverage estimates below the first administrative level, approaches for achieving more granular estimates are needed. We used a model-based geostatistical approach to estimate the CCI at multiple resolutions in Peru.

Methods

We generated estimates for the eight indicators on which the CCI is based for the departments, provinces, and areas of 5 × 5 km of Peru using data from two national household surveys carried out in 2018 and 2019 plus geospatial covariates. Bayesian geostatistical models were fit using the INLA-SPDE approach. We assessed model fit using cross-validation at the survey cluster level and by comparing modelled and direct survey estimates at the department-level.

Results

CCI coverage in the provinces along the coast was consistently higher than in the remainder of the country. Jungle areas in the north and east presented the lowest coverage levels and the largest gaps between and within provinces. The greatest inequalities were found, unsurprisingly, in the largest provinces where populations are scattered in jungle territory and are difficult to reach.

Conclusions

Our study highlighted provinces with high levels of inequality in CCI coverage indicating areas, mostly low-populated jungle areas, where more attention is needed. We also uncovered other areas, such as the border with Bolivia, where coverage is lower than the coastal provinces and should receive increased efforts. More generally, our results make the case for high-resolution estimates to unveil geographic inequities otherwise hidden by the usual levels of survey representativeness.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14371-7.

The magnitude of oral rehydration salt utilization in diarrhea hot spot regions of Ethiopia and its associated factors among under-five children: A multilevel analysis based on Bayesian approach

Background

Diarrhea leads the children to severe dehydration or death as a result of the loss of water and electrolytes (namely, potassium, chloride, sodium, and bicarbonate). To compensate for the losses, ORS is given to children who experienced diarrhea.

Objective

To estimate the magnitude of ORS utilization in diarrhea hotspot regions of Ethiopia and to assess its associated factors among under-five children.

Methods

To conduct this study, we used the 2016 Ethiopian demographic and health survey data. A total of 1,079 weighted sample children were selected. Each sample was selected randomly. Then, to identify factors associated with ORS utilization in diarrhea hotspot regions of Ethiopia, a multilevel analysis based on the Bayesian approach was applied. Finally, the credible interval of AOR that does not include 1 was considered statistically significant.

Results

The magnitude of ORS utilization for children in diarrhea hotspot regions of Ethiopia was 28%. Being urban resident (AOR = 1.92; 95% CrI: 1.13-3.3), woman household head (AOR = 2.11; 95% CrI: 1.3-3.9), having higher educational level (AOR = 1.52; 95% CrI: 1.04-2.22), member of health insurance (AOR = 1.73; 95% CrI: 1.14-2.43), and being exposed for media (AOR = 1.43; 95% CrI: 1.18-2.5) increases ORS utilization for diarrhea management.

Conclusion

Residence, educational level, health insurance, and media exposure were the factors of ORS utilization. So, to increase the practice of ORS utilization for diarrhea management in Ethiopia, the Ministry of Health and the Government of Ethiopia should consider those factors when they design diarrhea prevention and control strategies.

Prevalence and predictors of oral rehydration therapy, zinc, and other treatments for diarrhoea among children under-five in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Despite the evidence-based effectiveness of diarrhoea treatment in preventing diarrhoea-related child mortality, the accessibility and utilization of diarrhoea treatments remain low in sub-Saharan Africa, even though these treatments are available. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the prevalence and predictors of diarrhoea treatment among under-five children in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

This study involved cross-sectional analyses of secondary data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys of 30 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Percentages with their respective 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to summarise the prevalence of diarrhoea treatment. A multivariable multilevel binary logistic regression analysis was employed to examine the predictors of diarrhoea treatment among children under five years in sub-Saharan Africa. The regression results were presented using adjusted odds ratio with their accompanying 95% confidence intervals. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05. Stata software version 16.0 was used for the analyses.

Results

The overall prevalence of diarrhoea treatment among under-five children in sub-Saharan Africa was 49.07% (95% CI = 44.50–53.64). The prevalence of diarrhoea treatment ranged from 23.93% (95% CI = 20.92–26.94) in Zimbabwe to 66.32% (95% CI = 61.67–70.97) in Liberia. Children aged 1 to 4 years, those whose mothers had at least primary education, those whose mothers had postnatal care visits, those whose mothers believed that permission to go and get medical help for self was a big problem, and those whose mothers’ partners had at least primary education were more likely to undergo diarrhoea treatment as compared to their counterparts. The odds of diarrhoea treatment increased with increasing wealth index with the highest odds among those in the richest quintile. Also, the odds of diarrhoea treatment was higher in the Central, Eastern, and Western geographical subregions compared to those in the Southern geographical subregion. However, children whose mothers were cohabiting, those whose mothers were exposed to watching television, and those living in female-headed households were less likely to undergo diarrhoea treatment.

Conclusion

The study found that the prevalence of diarrhoea treatment among children in sub-Saharan Africa was relatively low and varied across countries. The sub-regional estimates of diarrhoea treatment and identified associated factors can support country-specific needs assessments targeted at improving policy makers’ understanding of within-country disparities in diarrhoea treatment. Planned interventions (e.g., provision of quality and affordable supply of oral rehydration salts and zinc) should seek to scale up diarrhoea treatment uptake among under-five children in sub-Saharan Africa with much focus on the factors identified in this study.

Maintaining Momentum for Rotavirus Immunization in Africa during the COVID-19 Era: Report of the 13th African Rotavirus Symposium

The 13th African Rotavirus Symposium was held as a virtual event hosted by the University of Nairobi, Kenya and The Kenya Paediatric Association on 3rd and 4th November 2021. This biennial event organized under the auspices of the African Rotavirus Network shapes the agenda for rotavirus research and prevention on the continent, attracting key international and regional opinion leaders, researchers, and public health scientists. The African Rotavirus Network is a regional network of institutions initially established in 1999, and now encompassing much of the diarrheal disease and rotavirus related research in Africa, in collaboration with the World Health Organization African Regional Office (WHO-AFRO), Ministries of Health, and other partners. Surges in SARS-CoV2 variants and concomitant travel restrictions limited the meeting to a webinar platform with invited scientific presentations and scientific presentations from selected abstracts. The scientific program covered updates on burden of diarrheal diseases including rotavirus, the genomic characterization of rotavirus strains pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine introduction, and data from clinical evaluation of new rotavirus vaccines in Africa. Finally, 42 of the 54 African countries have fully introduced rotavirus vaccination at the time of the meeting, including the two recently WHO pre-qualified vaccines from India. Nonetheless, the full benefit of rotavirus vaccination is yet to be realized in Africa where approximately 80% of the global burden of rotavirus mortality exists.

Mapping local variation in household overcrowding across Africa from 2000 to 2018: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Household overcrowding is a serious public health threat associated with high morbidity and mortality. Rapid population growth and urbanisation contribute to overcrowding and poor sanitation in low-income and middle- income countries, and are risk factors for the spread of infectious diseases, including COVID-19, and antimicrobial resistance. Many countries do not have adequate surveillance capacity to monitor household overcrowding. Geostatistical models are therefore useful tools for estimating household overcrowding. In this study, we aimed to estimate household overcrowding in Africa between 2000 and 2018 by combining available household survey data, population censuses, and other country-specific household surveys within a geostatistical framework.

METHODS

We used data from household surveys and population censuses to generate a Bayesian geostatistical model of household overcrowding in Africa for the 19-year period between 2000 and 2018. Additional sociodemographic and health-related covariates informed the model, which covered 54 African countries.

FINDINGS

We analysed 287 surveys and population censuses, covering 78 695 991 households. Spatial and temporal variability arose in household overcrowding estimates over time. In 2018, the highest overcrowding estimates were observed in the Horn of Africa region (median proportion 62% [IQR 57-63]); the lowest regional median proportion was estimated for the north of Africa region (16% [14-19]). Overall, 474·4 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 250·1 million-740·7 million) people were estimated to be living in overcrowded conditions in Africa in 2018, a 62·7% increase from the estimated 291·5 million (180·8 million-417·3 million) people who lived in overcrowded conditions in the year 2000. 48·5% (229·9 million) of people living in overcrowded conditions came from six African countries (Nigeria, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Uganda, and Kenya), with a combined population of 538·3 million people.

INTERPRETATION

This study incorporated survey and population censuses data and used geostatistical modelling to estimate continent-wide overcrowding over a 19-year period. Our analysis identified countries and areas with high numbers of people living in overcrowded conditions, thereby providing a benchmark for policy planning and the implementation of interventions such as in infectious disease control.

FUNDING

UK Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Oral Rehydration Salts, Cholera, and the Unfinished Urban Health Agenda

Cholera has played an outsized role in the history of how cities have transformed from the victims of disease into great disease conquerors. Yet the current burden of cholera and diarrheal diseases in the fast-urbanizing areas of low-income nations shows the many ways in which the urban health agenda remains unfinished and must continue to evolve.

Global antibiotic consumption and usage in humans, 2000-18: a spatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a serious threat to global public health. WHO emphasises the need for countries to monitor antibiotic consumption to combat AMR. Many low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) lack surveillance capacity; we aimed to use multiple data sources and statistical models to estimate global antibiotic consumption.

METHODS

In this spatial modelling study, we used individual-level data from household surveys to inform a Bayesian geostatistical model of antibiotic usage in children (aged <5 years) with lower respiratory tract infections in LMICs. Antibiotic consumption data were obtained from multiple sources, including IQVIA, WHO, and the European Surveillance of Antimicrobial Consumption Network (ESAC-Net). The estimates of the antibiotic usage model were used alongside sociodemographic and health covariates to inform a model of total antibiotic consumption in LMICs. This was combined with a single model of antibiotic consumption in high-income countries to produce estimates of antibiotic consumption covering 204 countries and 19 years.

FINDINGS

We analysed 209 surveys done between 2000 and 2018, covering 284 045 children with lower respiratory tract infections. We identified large national and subnational variations of antibiotic usage in LMICs, with the lowest levels estimated in sub-Saharan Africa and the highest in eastern Europe and central Asia. We estimated a global antibiotic consumption rate of 14·3 (95% uncertainty interval 13·2-15·6) defined daily doses (DDD) per 1000 population per day in 2018 (40·2 [37·2-43·7] billion DDD), an increase of 46% from 9·8 (9·2-10·5) DDD per 1000 per day in 2000. We identified large spatial disparities, with antibiotic consumption rates varying from 5·0 (4·8-5·3) DDD per 1000 per day in the Philippines to 45·9 DDD per 1000 per day in Greece in 2018. Additionally, we present trends in consumption of different classes of antibiotics for selected Global Burden of Disease study regions using the IQVIA, WHO, and ESAC-net input data. We identified large increases in the consumption of fluoroquinolones and third-generation cephalosporins in North Africa and Middle East, and south Asia.

INTERPRETATION

To our knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates antibiotic usage and consumption data and uses geostatistical modelling techniques to estimate antibiotic consumption for 204 countries from 2000 to 2018. Our analysis identifies both high rates of antibiotic consumption and a lack of access to antibiotics, providing a benchmark for future interventions.

FUNDING

Fleming Fund, UK Department of Health and Social Care; Wellcome Trust; and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2018

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)-giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life-is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization's Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030.

Trends in equity of inpatient health service utilization for the middle-aged and elderly in China: based on longitudinal data from 2011 to 2018

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the trends in equity of receiving inpatient health service utilization (IHSU) in China over the period 2011-2018.

METHODS

Longitudinal data obtained from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Studies were used to determine trends in receiving IHSU. Concentration curves, concentration indices, and horizontal inequity indices were applied to evaluate the trends in equity of IHSU.

RESULTS

This study showed that the annual rate of IHSU gradually increased from 7.99% in 2011 to 18.63% in 2018. Logistic regression shows that the rates of annual IHSU in 2018 were nearly 3 times (OR = 2.86, 95%CL: 2.57, 3.19) higher for rural respondents and 2.5 times (OR = 2.49, 95%CL: 1.99, 3.11) higher for urban respondents than the rates in 2011 after adjusting for other variables. Concentration curves both in urban and rural respondents lay above the line of equality from 2011 to 2018. The concentration index remained negative and increased significantly from - 0.0147 (95% CL: - 0.0506, 0.0211) to - 0.0676 (95% CL: - 0.0894, - 0.458), the adjusted concentration index kept the same tendency. The horizontal inequity index was positive in 2011 but became negative from 2013 to 2018, evidencing a pro-low-economic inequity trend.

CONCLUSIONS

We find that the inequity of IHSU for the middle-aged and elderly increased over the past 10 years, becoming more focused on the lower-economic population. Economic status, lifestyle factors were the main contributors to the pro-low-economic inequity. Health policies to allocate resources and services are needed to satisfy the needs of the middle-aged and elderly.

Barriers and facilitators to implementation of oral rehydration therapy in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Oral rehydration therapy (ORT) is an effective and cheap treatment for diarrheal disease; globally, one of the leading causes of death in children under five. The World Health Organization launched a global campaign to improve ORT coverage in 1978, with activities such as educational campaigns, training health workers and the creation of designate programming. Despite these efforts, ORT coverage remains relatively low. The objective of this systematic review is to identify the barriers and facilitators to the implementation of oral rehydration therapy in low and middle-income countries.

METHODS

A comprehensive search strategy comprised of relevant subject headings and keywords was executed in 5 databases including OVID Medline, OVID Embase, OVID HealthStar, Web of Science and Scopus. Eligible studies underwent quality assessment, and a directed content analysis approach to data extraction was conducted and aligned to the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) to facilitate narrative synthesis.

RESULTS

The search identified 1570 citations and following removal of duplicates as well as screening according to our inclusion/exclusion criteria, 55 articles were eligible for inclusion in the review. Twenty-three countries were represented in this review, with India, Bangladesh, Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa having the most representation of available studies. Study dates ranged from 1981 to 2020. Overarching thematic areas spanning the barriers and facilitators that were identified included: availability and accessibility, knowledge, partnership engagement, and design and acceptability.

CONCLUSION

A systematic review of studies on implementation of ORT in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) highlights key activities that facilitate the development of successful implementation that include: (1) availability and accessibility of ORT, (2) awareness and education among communities, (3) strong partnership engagement strategies, and (4) adaptable design to enhance acceptability. The barriers and facilitators identified under the CIFR domains can be used to build knowledge on how to adapt ORT to national and local settings and contribute to a better understanding on the implementation and use of ORT in LMICs. The prospects for scaling and sustaining ORT (after years of low use) will increase if implementation research informs local applications, and implementers engage appropriate stakeholders and test assumptions around localized theories of change from interventions to expected outcomes.

REGISTRATION

A protocol for this systematic review was developed and uploaded onto the PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews database (Registration number: CRD420201695).

Oral rehydration therapies in Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone: a spatial analysis of changes over time and implications for policy

BACKGROUND

Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a simple intervention that can prevent childhood deaths from severe diarrhea and dehydration. In a previous study, we mapped the use of ORS treatment subnationally and found that ORS coverage increased over time, while the use of home-made alternatives or recommended home fluids (RHF) decreased, in many countries. These patterns were particularly striking within Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone. It was unclear, however, whether ORS replaced RHF in these locations or if children were left untreated, and if these patterns were associated with health policy changes.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from household surveys to map the percentage of children with diarrhea that received (1) any ORS, (2) only RHF, or (3) no oral rehydration treatment between 2000 and 2018. This approach allowed examination of whether RHF was replaced with ORS before and after interventions, policies, and external events that may have impacted healthcare access.

RESULTS

We found that RHF was replaced with ORS in most Sierra Leone districts, except those most impacted by the Ebola outbreak. In addition, RHF was replaced in northern but not in southern Mali, and RHF was not replaced anywhere in Senegal. In Senegal, there was no statistical evidence that a national policy promoting ORS use was associated with increases in coverage. In Sierra Leone, ORS coverage increased following a national policy change that abolished health costs for children.

CONCLUSIONS

Children in parts of Mali and Senegal have been left behind during ORS scale-up. Improved messaging on effective diarrhea treatment and/or increased ORS access such as through reducing treatment costs may be needed to prevent child deaths in these areas.

Geospatial estimation of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health indicators: a systematic review of methodological aspects of studies based on household surveys

BACKGROUND

Geospatial approaches are increasingly used to produce fine spatial scale estimates of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) indicators in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study aims to describe important methodological aspects and specificities of geospatial approaches applied to RMNCH coverage and impact outcomes and enable non-specialist readers to critically evaluate and interpret these studies.

METHODS

Two independent searches were carried out using Medline, Web of Science, Scopus, SCIELO and LILACS electronic databases. Studies based on survey data using geospatial approaches on RMNCH in LMICs were considered eligible. Studies whose outcomes were not measures of occurrence were excluded.

RESULTS

We identified 82 studies focused on over 30 different RMNCH outcomes. Bayesian hierarchical models were the predominant modeling approach found in 62 studies. 5 × 5 km estimates were the most common resolution and the main source of information was Demographic and Health Surveys. Model validation was under reported, with the out-of-sample method being reported in only 56% of the studies and 13% of the studies did not present a single validation metric. Uncertainty assessment and reporting lacked standardization, and more than a quarter of the studies failed to report any uncertainty measure.

CONCLUSIONS

The field of geospatial estimation focused on RMNCH outcomes is clearly expanding. However, despite the adoption of a standardized conceptual modeling framework for generating finer spatial scale estimates, methodological aspects such as model validation and uncertainty demand further attention as they are both essential in assisting the reader to evaluate the estimates that are being presented.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.