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Calvert C, Brockway MM, Zoega H, Miller JE, Been JV, Amegah AK, Racine-Poon A, Oskoui SE, Abok II, Aghaeepour N, Akwaowo CD, Alshaikh BN, Ayede AI, Bacchini F, Barekatain B, Barnes R, Bebak K, Berard A, Bhutta ZA, Brook JR, Bryan LR, Cajachagua-Torres KN, Campbell-Yeo M, Chu DT, Connor KL, Cornette L, Cortés S, Daly M, Debauche C, Dedeke IOF, Einarsdóttir K, Engjom H, Estrada-Gutierrez G, Fantasia I, Fiorentino NM, Franklin M, Fraser A, Gachuno OW, Gallo LA, Gissler M, Håberg SE, Habibelahi A, Häggström J, Hookham L, Hui L, Huicho L, Hunter KJ, Huq S, Kc A, Kadambari S, Kelishadi R, Khalili N, Kippen J, Le Doare K, Llorca J, Magee LA, Magnus MC, Man KKC, Mburugu PM, Mediratta RP, Morris AD, Muhajarine N, Mulholland RH, Bonnard LN, Nakibuuka V, Nassar N, Nyadanu SD, Oakley L, Oladokun A, Olayemi OO, Olutekunbi OA, Oluwafemi RO, Ogunkunle TO, Orton C, Örtqvist AK, Ouma J, Oyapero O, Palmer KR, Pedersen LH, Pereira G, Pereyra I, Philip RK, Pruski D, Przybylski M, Quezada-Pinedo HG, Regan AK, Rhoda NR, Rihs TA, Riley T, Rocha TAH, Rolnik DL, Saner C, Schneuer FJ, Souter VL, Stephansson O, Sun S, Swift EM, Szabó M, Temmerman M, Tooke L, Urquia ML, von Dadelszen P, Wellenius GA, Whitehead C, Wong ICK, Wood R, Wróblewska-Seniuk K, Yeboah-Antwi K, Yilgwan CS, Zawiejska A, Sheikh A, Rodriguez N, Burgner D, Stock SJ, Azad MB. Changes in preterm birth and stillbirth during COVID-19 lockdowns in 26 countries. Nat Hum Behav 2023; 7:529-544. [PMID: 36849590 PMCID: PMC10129868 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01522-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 42.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2023] [Indexed: 03/01/2023]
Abstract
Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. Changes in PTB rates, ranging from -90% to +30%, were reported in many countries following early COVID-19 pandemic response measures ('lockdowns'). It is unclear whether this variation reflects real differences in lockdown impacts, or perhaps differences in stillbirth rates and/or study designs. Here we present interrupted time series and meta-analyses using harmonized data from 52 million births in 26 countries, 18 of which had representative population-based data, with overall PTB rates ranging from 6% to 12% and stillbirth ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 per 1,000 births. We show small reductions in PTB in the first (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98, P value <0.0001), second (0.96, 0.92-0.99, 0.03) and third (0.97, 0.94-1.00, 0.09) months of lockdown, but not in the fourth month of lockdown (0.99, 0.96-1.01, 0.34), although there were some between-country differences after the first month. For high-income countries in this study, we did not observe an association between lockdown and stillbirths in the second (1.00, 0.88-1.14, 0.98), third (0.99, 0.88-1.12, 0.89) and fourth (1.01, 0.87-1.18, 0.86) months of lockdown, although we have imprecise estimates due to stillbirths being a relatively rare event. We did, however, find evidence of increased risk of stillbirth in the first month of lockdown in high-income countries (1.14, 1.02-1.29, 0.02) and, in Brazil, we found evidence for an association between lockdown and stillbirth in the second (1.09, 1.03-1.15, 0.002), third (1.10, 1.03-1.17, 0.003) and fourth (1.12, 1.05-1.19, <0.001) months of lockdown. With an estimated 14.8 million PTB annually worldwide, the modest reductions observed during early pandemic lockdowns translate into large numbers of PTB averted globally and warrant further research into causal pathways.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clara Calvert
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Meredith Merilee Brockway
- Children's Hospital Research Institute of Manitoba, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Helga Zoega
- School of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine & Health, University of New South Wales Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Centre of Public Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - Jessica E Miller
- Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jasper V Been
- Division of Neonatology, Department of Paediatrics; Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology; Department of Public Health; Erasmus MC - Sophia Children's Hospital, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Adeladza Kofi Amegah
- Public Health Research Group, Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
| | | | | | - Ishaya I Abok
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Jos/Jos University Teaching Hospital, Jos, Nigeria
| | - Nima Aghaeepour
- Department of Anesthesiology, Pain, and Perioperative Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Christie D Akwaowo
- Institute of Health Research and Development, University of Uyo Teaching Hospital, Uyo, Nigeria
- College of Health Sciences, University of Uyo, Uyo, Nigeria
| | - Belal N Alshaikh
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Adejumoke I Ayede
- Department of Pediatrics, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan and University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | | | - Behzad Barekatain
- Department of Pediatrics, Division of Neonatology, Child Growth and Development Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | | | - Karolina Bebak
- Obstetrics and Gynaecology Ward, District Public Hospital in Poznań, Poznań, Poland
| | - Anick Berard
- Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- CHU Ste-Justine, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Faculty of Medicine, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Lyon, France
| | - Zulfiqar A Bhutta
- Center of Excellence in Women Child Health, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
- Centre for Global Child Health, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jeffrey R Brook
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Lenroy R Bryan
- Department of Obstetrics & Gynaecology and Child Health, University of The West MonaIndies, Mona, Jamaica
| | - Kim N Cajachagua-Torres
- The Generation R Study Group, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- The Department of Paediatrics, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Centro de Investigación en Salud Materna e Infantil and Centro de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral y Sostenible, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Marsha Campbell-Yeo
- School of Nursing, Dalhousie University and IWK Health, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
| | - Dinh-Toi Chu
- Center for Biomedicine and Community Health, International School, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Kristin L Connor
- Department of Health Sciences, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Luc Cornette
- AZ St-Jan Bruges-Ostend AV Hospital, Bruges, Belgium
| | - Sandra Cortés
- Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, Advanced Center for Chronic Diseases Diagonal (ACCDIS), Santiago, Chile
| | - Mandy Daly
- Irish Neonatal Health Alliance, Wicklow, Ireland
| | - Christian Debauche
- Department of Neonatology, Cliniques Universitaires Saint-Luc, IREC, UCLouvain, Brussels, Belgium
- CEpiP (Centre d'Epidémiologie Périnatale), Brussels, Belgium
| | | | - Kristjana Einarsdóttir
- Centre of Public Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Hilde Engjom
- Department of Health Registry Research and Development, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Ilaria Fantasia
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health, IRCCS Burlo Garofolo Children's Hospital, Trieste, Italy
| | - Nicole M Fiorentino
- Children's Hospital Research Institute of Manitoba, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Meredith Franklin
- Department of Statistical Sciences and School of the Environment, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Abigail Fraser
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Onesmus W Gachuno
- Obstetrics and Gynecology, Medicine, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Linda A Gallo
- School of Biomedical Sciences, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Mika Gissler
- Department of Knowledge Brokers, THL Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland
- Academic Primary Health Care Centre, Region Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Siri E Håberg
- Centre for Fertility and Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Abbas Habibelahi
- Neonatology, Neonatal Health Office, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Lauren Hookham
- St. George's University, Makerere University - Johns Hopkins University Research Collaboration, London, UK
| | - Lisa Hui
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Luis Huicho
- Centro de Investigación en Salud Materna e Infantil, Centro de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral y Sostenible and School of Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | | | - Sayeeda Huq
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, ICDDR,B (International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Seilesh Kadambari
- Oxford Vaccine Group, Department of Paediatrics, University of Oxford and the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford, UK
| | - Roya Kelishadi
- Child Growth and Development Research Center, Research Institute for Primordial Prevention of Non-Communicable Disease, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Narjes Khalili
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Department of Community and Family Medicine, School of Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Joanna Kippen
- Obstetrics and Gynaecology Ward, District Public Hospital in Poznań, Poznań, Poland
| | - Kirsty Le Doare
- International Centre for Neonatal and Paediatric Infection, St. George's, University of London, London, UK
- Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Medical Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Uganda Research Unit, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Javier Llorca
- Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
- CIBERESP (Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology & Public Health, en Epidemiología y Salud Pública), Madrid, Spain
| | - Laura A Magee
- Institute of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course and Population Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Maria C Magnus
- Centre for Fertility and Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Kenneth K C Man
- Research Department of Practice and Policy, University College London School of Pharmacy, London, UK
- Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science Park, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Patrick M Mburugu
- Department of Child Health and Paediatrics, School of Medicine, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Rishi P Mediratta
- Division of Pediatric Hospital Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | | | - Nazeem Muhajarine
- Community Health and Epidemiology, College of Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
| | | | - Livia Nagy Bonnard
- Melletted a helyem Egyesület, Right(s) Beside You Association, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Victoria Nakibuuka
- Department of Paediatrics, St. Francis Nsambya Hospital, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Natasha Nassar
- Child Population and Translational Health Research, Children's Hospital at Westmead Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Sylvester D Nyadanu
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
- Education, Culture, and Health Opportunities (ECHO) Research Group International, Aflao, Ghana
| | - Laura Oakley
- Centre for Fertility and Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Adesina Oladokun
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan and University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Oladapo O Olayemi
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan and University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | | | - Rosena O Oluwafemi
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Mother and Child Hospital, Akure, Nigeria
| | - Taofik O Ogunkunle
- Department of Paediatrics, Dalhatu Araf Specialist Hospital, Lafia, Nigeria
| | | | - Anne K Örtqvist
- Clinical Epidemiology Division, Department of Medicine, Solna, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Visby County Hospital, Visby, Sweden
| | - Joseph Ouma
- Makerere University - Johns Hopkins University Research Collaboration, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Oyejoke Oyapero
- Paediatrics Department, Ikorodu General Hospital, Ikorodu, Nigeria
| | - Kirsten R Palmer
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Lars H Pedersen
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Aarhus University and Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Gavin Pereira
- Centre for Fertility and Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
- Curtin School of Population Health and enAble Institute, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Isabel Pereyra
- School of Nutrition, Catholic University del Maule, Region del Maule, Chile
| | - Roy K Philip
- Division of Neonatology, Department of Paediatrics, University Maternity Hospital Limerick and University of Limerick School of Medicine, Limerick, Ireland
| | - Dominik Pruski
- Obstetrics and Gynaecology Ward, District Public Hospital in Poznań, Poznań, Poland
| | - Marcin Przybylski
- Obstetrics and Gynaecology Ward, District Public Hospital in Poznań, Poznań, Poland
| | - Hugo G Quezada-Pinedo
- The Generation R Study Group, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- The Department of Paediatrics, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Centro de Investigación en Salud Materna e Infantil and Centro de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral y Sostenible, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Annette K Regan
- School of Nursing and Health Professions, University of San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Natasha R Rhoda
- Paediatric Department, School of Adolescent and Child Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
- Mowbray Maternity Hospital, Western Cape Department of Health, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Tonia A Rihs
- Federal Statistical Office (FSO), Neuchâtel, Switzerland
| | - Taylor Riley
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Thiago Augusto Hernandes Rocha
- Evidence and Intelligence for Action in Health Department, Pan-American Health Organization - World Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Daniel L Rolnik
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Christoph Saner
- Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Division of Pediatric Endocrinology, Diabetology and Metabolism, Department of Pediatrics, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Department of Biomedical Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Francisco J Schneuer
- The Children's Hospital at Westmead Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Olof Stephansson
- Clinical Epidemiology Division, Department of Medicine, Solna, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Shengzhi Sun
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Emma M Swift
- Faculty of Nursing, Department of Midwifery, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland
| | - Miklós Szabó
- Division of Neonatology, 1st Department of Pediatrics, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Marleen Temmerman
- Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Lloyd Tooke
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Marcelo L Urquia
- Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, Department of Community Health Sciences, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Peter von Dadelszen
- Institute of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course and Population Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Gregory A Wellenius
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Clare Whitehead
- The Royal Women's Hospital, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ian C K Wong
- Research Department of Practice and Policy, University College London School of Pharmacy, London, UK
- Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science Park, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Rachael Wood
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Public Health Scotland, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Kojo Yeboah-Antwi
- Public Health Unit, Father Thomas Alan Rooney Memorial Hospital, Asankrangwa, Western Region, Ghana
| | | | - Agnieszka Zawiejska
- Department of Medical Simulation, Chair of Medical Education, Poznań University of Medical Sciences, Poznań, Poland
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Natalie Rodriguez
- Children's Hospital Research Institute of Manitoba, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - David Burgner
- Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Sarah J Stock
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
| | - Meghan B Azad
- Children's Hospital Research Institute of Manitoba, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
- Departments of Pediatrics and Child Health, Community Health Sciences, and Immunology, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
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