A needs-based workforce model to deliver tertiary-level community mental health care for distressed infants, children, and adolescents in South Australia: a mixed-methods study

Methods for health workforce projection model: systematic review and recommended good practice reporting guideline

BACKGROUND

Health workforce projection models are integral components of a robust healthcare system. This research aims to review recent advancements in methodology and approaches for health workforce projection models and proposes a set of good practice reporting guidelines.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review by searching medical and social science databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and EconLit, covering the period from 2010 to 2023. The inclusion criteria encompassed studies projecting the demand for and supply of the health workforce. PROSPERO registration: CRD 42023407858.

RESULTS

Our review identified 40 relevant studies, including 39 single countries analysis (in Australia, Canada, Germany, Ghana, Guinea, Ireland, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Lesotho, Malawi, New Zealand, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Spain, Thailand, UK, United States), and one multiple country analysis (in 32 OECD countries). Recent studies have increasingly embraced a complex systems approach in health workforce modelling, incorporating demand, supply, and demand-supply gap analyses. The review identified at least eight distinct types of health workforce projection models commonly used in recent literature: population-to-provider ratio models (n = 7), utilization models (n = 10), needs-based models (n = 25), skill-mixed models (n = 5), stock-and-flow models (n = 40), agent-based simulation models (n = 3), system dynamic models (n = 7), and budgetary models (n = 5). Each model has unique assumptions, strengths, and limitations, with practitioners often combining these models. Furthermore, we found seven statistical approaches used in health workforce projection models: arithmetic calculation, optimization, time-series analysis, econometrics regression modelling, microsimulation, cohort-based simulation, and feedback causal loop analysis. Workforce projection often relies on imperfect data with limited granularity at the local level. Existing studies lack standardization in reporting their methods. In response, we propose a good practice reporting guideline for health workforce projection models designed to accommodate various model types, emerging methodologies, and increased utilization of advanced statistical techniques to address uncertainties and data requirements.

CONCLUSIONS

This study underscores the significance of dynamic, multi-professional, team-based, refined demand, supply, and budget impact analyses supported by robust health workforce data intelligence. The suggested best-practice reporting guidelines aim to assist researchers who publish health workforce studies in peer-reviewed journals. Nevertheless, it is expected that these reporting standards will prove valuable for analysts when designing their own analysis, encouraging a more comprehensive and transparent approach to health workforce projection modelling.

Review: Improving access to mental health interventions for children from birth to five years: A Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

In spite of infants and children aged 0-5 years experiencing mental health difficulties being estimated to be in the range of 6%-18% globally, the mental health care needs for this age group are often overlooked in the design of specialist mental health services. Although there is increasing recognition of the importance of infant mental health services and treatments for younger children, access remains a barrier. Mental health services specifically designed for children 0-5 years are vital; however, little is known about how these services ensure access for infants at risk of mental health difficulties and their families. This scoping review seeks to address this knowledge gap.

METHODS

A scoping review methodology framework was used to search for relevant articles published between January 2000 and July 2021, identified using five databases: MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, SocIndex and Web of Science. The selection of studies was based on empirical research about access to infant mental health services and models of care. A total of 28 relevant articles met the eligibility criteria for inclusion in this review.

RESULTS

Findings can be summarised under five broad themes: (1) accessibility for at-risk populations (2) the importance of early detection of infants in need of mental health services and interventions; (3) the promotion of culturally responsive services and interventions; (4) ensuring the sustainability of IMH services and programs and (5) the integration of innovative interventions to improve existing practice models.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings from this scoping review highlight barriers to access and provision of infant mental health services. Future infant mental health service design, informed by research, is needed to improve access for infants and young children with mental health difficulties and their families.

Dynamic modelling of the impact of community-based acute mental health services for children and adolescents

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the potential impact of the recently announced 'Safeguards' initiative on mental health-related emergency department presentation rates for children and adolescents (0-17 years). This state-funded initiative aims to establish 25 Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams across New South Wales.

METHODS

We estimated the effects of the 'Safeguards' initiative using a state-level dynamic model of child and adolescent acute mental health care. Potential reductions in total numbers of mental health-related emergency department presentations and re-presentations (i.e. presentations within 3 months of an initial presentation) were assessed via a series of simulation experiments in which we systematically varied the total number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams and the mean duration of care per patient.

RESULTS

Assuming a mean treatment duration of 6 weeks per patient, 25 Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams are projected to reduce total numbers of mental health-related emergency department presentations and re-presentations over the period 2022-2031 by 15.0% (95% interval, 12.0-18.2%) and 31.7% (26.2-37.8%), respectively. Increasing the total number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams above 25 has minimal additional impact on projected reductions in numbers of emergency department presentations and re-presentations, provided the mean duration of care is no more than 8 weeks. However, where the mean duration of care is greater than 4 weeks, a decrease in the number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams below 25 reduces the potential effectiveness of the 'Safeguards' initiative significantly.

CONCLUSION

Our simulation results indicate that full and timely implementation will be critical if the potentially substantial impact of the 'Safeguards' initiative on demand for hospital-based emergency mental health care is to be realised.

Strategic workforce planning in health and social care - an international perspective: A scoping review

Effective strategic workforce planning for integrated and co-ordinated health and social care is essential if future services are to be resourced such that skill mix, clinical practice and productivity meet population health and social care needs in timely, safe and accessible ways globally. This review presents international literature to illustrate how strategic workforce planning in health and social care has been undertaken around the world with examples of planning frameworks, models and modelling approaches. The databases Business Source Premier, CINAHL, Embase, Health Management Information Consortium, Medline and Scopus were searched for full texts, from 2005 to 2022, detailing empirical research, models or methodologies to explain how strategic workforce planning (with at least a one-year horizon) in health and/or social care has been undertaken, yielding ultimately 101 included references. The supply/demand of a differentiated medical workforce was discussed in 25 references. Nursing and midwifery were characterised as undifferentiated labour, requiring urgent growth to meet demand. Unregistered workers were poorly represented as was the social care workforce. One reference considered planning for health and social care workers. Workforce modelling was illustrated in 66 references with predilection for quantifiable projections. Increasingly needs-based approaches were called for to better consider demography and epidemiological impacts. This review's findings advocate for whole-system needs-based approaches that consider the ecology of a co-produced health and social care workforce.

Bi-stability and critical transitions in mental health care systems: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Delayed initiation and early discontinuation of treatment due to limited availability and accessibility of services may often result in people with mild or moderate mental disorders developing more severe disorders, leading to an increase in demand for specialised care that would be expected to further restrict service availability and accessibility (due to increased waiting times, higher out-of-pocket costs, etc.).

METHODS

We developed a simple system dynamics model of the interaction of specialised services capacity and disease progression to examine the impact of service availability and accessibility on the effectiveness and efficiency of mental health care systems.

RESULTS

Model analysis indicates that, under certain conditions, increasing services capacity can precipitate an abrupt, step-like transition from a state of persistently high unmet need for specialised services to an alternative, stable state in which people presenting for care receive immediate and effective treatment. This qualitative shift in services system functioning results from a 'virtuous cycle' in which increasing treatment-dependent recovery among patients with mild to moderate disorders reduces the number of severely ill patients requiring intensive and/or prolonged treatment, effectively 'releasing' services capacity that can be used to further reduce the disease progression rate. We present an empirical case study of tertiary-level child and adolescent mental health services in the Australian state of South Australia demonstrating that the conditions under which such critical transitions can occur apply in real-world services systems.

CONCLUSIONS

Policy and planning decisions aimed at increasing specialised services capacity have the potential to dramatically increase the effectiveness and efficiency of mental health care systems, promoting long-term sustainability and resilience in the face of future threats to population mental health (e.g., economic crises, natural disasters, global pandemics).

Key service components for age-appropriate mental health service planning for young adults

AIM

To identify and describe key service components that should be incorporated into age-appropriate integrated mental health care for young adults aged 18-24 years.

METHODS

Key service components were identified through a mixed-methods approach including targeted examinations of the literature and structured discussions with experts in youth mental health.

RESULTS

Seven key components were identified as important for providing age-appropriate mental health care to young adults. Two were classified as clinical service components (structured psychological therapies; care coordination and liaison), three were classified as non-clinical service components (vocational support; youth development; peer support) and two as integrated non-clinical and clinical service components (lifestyle interventions and family and network support). Example service models for each of these key service components were identified and described.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to identify and describe key service components for age-appropriate mental health care for young adults. The findings provide mental health service planners with a framework of services that should be considered when planning and resourcing services for this age range.

Experiences and challenges faced by community mental health workers when providing care to people with mental health conditions: A qualitative descriptive study

The global prevalence of mental health conditions and the associated wide treatment gaps have led to increased demand for quality mental healthcare services. In Singapore, despite a shift towards a joint provision of mental healthcare in hospitals and the community, experiences of mental healthcare teams in such hospital-community partnerships have remained unclear. Through a qualitative descriptive approach, this study explored community mental health workers' experiences and perceptions of working with partners from tertiary hospitals and other community organisations. Eighteen participants were individually interviewed with a semi-structured question guide through video conferencing. This study was guided by the 32-item checklist from the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research. Data were subjected to Braun and Clark's six-step thematic analysis. Three themes emerged: (i) the need for supportive partners, due to institutional and legal challenges faced in the participants' liaison with hospital partners and other community organisations; (ii) the need for a supportive organisation, whose presence and importance were revealed by the interviews; and (iii) the necessity of advanced training, identified by the participants as a contributor to their professional growth. The findings highlighted the importance of inter-sectoral communication and positive effects of a robust organisational support system. Accordingly, hospitals and community mental healthcare organisations should consider strengthening networking and boosting case discussions through regular inter-sectoral meetings that would prioritise the clients' continuity of care. Furthermore, opportunities for advanced trainings should be created for community-based mental healthcare workers.

Health workforce supply, needs and financial feasibility in Lesotho: a labour market analysis

BACKGROUND

The Government of Lesotho has prioritised health investment that aims to improve the health and socioeconomic development of the country, including the scaling up of the health workforce (HWF) training and improving their working conditions. Following a health labour market analysis, the paper highlights the available stock of health workers in Lesotho's health labour market, 10-year projected supply versus needs and the financial implications.

METHODS

Multiple complementary approaches were used to collect data and analyse the HWF situation and labour market dynamics. These included a scooping assessment, desk review, triangulation of different data sources for descriptive analysis and modelling of the HWF supply, need and financial space.

FINDINGS

Lesotho had about 20 942 active health workers across 18 health occupations in 2020, mostly community health workers (69%), nurses and midwives (17.9%), while medical practitioners were 2%. Almost one out of three professional nurses and midwives (28.43%) were unemployed, and nearly 20% of associate nurse professionals, 13.26% of pharmacy technicians and 24.91% of laboratory technicians were also unemployed. There were 20.73 doctors, nurses and midwives per 10 000 population in Lesotho, and this could potentially increase to a density of 31.49 doctors, nurses and midwives per 10 000 population by 2030 compared with a need of 46.72 per 10 000 population by 2030 based on projected health service needs using disease burden and evolving population size and demographics. The existing stock of health workers covered only 47% of the needs and could improve to 55% in 2030. The financial space for the HWF employment was roughly US$40.94 million in 2020, increasing to about US$66.69 million by 2030. In comparison, the cost of employing all health workers already in the supply pipeline (in addition to the currently employed ones) was estimated to be US$61.48 million but could reach US$104.24 million by 2030. Thus, a 33% gap is apparent between the financial space and what is required to guarantee employment for all health workers in the supply pipeline.

CONCLUSION

Lesotho's HWF stock falls short of its population health need by 53%. The unemployment of some cadres is, however, apparent. Addressing the need requires increasing the HWF budget by at least 12.3% annually up to 2030 or prioritising at least 33% of its recurrent health expenditure to the HWF.

Referral patterns to outpatient child and adolescent mental health services and factors associated with referrals being rejected. A cross-sectional observational study

BACKGROUND

Outpatient child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS) are faced with the challenge of balancing increasing demands with limited resources. An additional challenge is high rejection rates of referrals which causes frustration for referring agents and families. In order to effectively plan and allocate available resources within CAMHS there is a need for up-to-date knowledge on referral patterns and factors associated with rejection of referrals.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional observational study we did a retrospective review of all referrals (n = 1825) for children (0-18) referred for assessment at the outpatient CAMHS of the North Denmark Region in 2018.

RESULTS

The most common referral reasons to CAMHS were attention deficit disorder (ADHD/ADD) (27.9%), autism spectrum disorder (22.4%), affective disorders (14.0%) and anxiety disorders (11.6%). The majority of referrals came from general practitioners, but for neurodevelopmental disorders educational psychologists were the primary referral source. Re-referrals constituted more than a third of all referrals (35.9%). Children in care were overrepresented in this clinical sample and had an increased risk (Adj. OR 2.54) of having their referrals rejected by CAMHS. Referrals from general practitioners were also associated with an increased risk of rejection (Adj. OR 3.29).

CONCLUSIONS

A high proportion of children with mental disorders have a repeated need for assessment by CAMHS. There is a need for future research on predictors of re-referral to outpatient services to identify potential targets for reducing re-referral rates as well as research on how to optimize service provision for children with a repeated need for assessment. General practitioners are the main gatekeepers to CAMHS and research on interventions to improve the referral process should be aimed towards general practitioners.

Modelling the supply and need for health professionals for primary health care in Ghana: Implications for health professions education and employment planning

Background

The health workforce (HWF) is critical in developing responsive health systems to address population health needs and respond to health emergencies, but defective planning have arguably resulted in underinvestment in health professions education and decent employment. Primary Health Care (PHC) has been the anchor of Ghana’s health system. As Ghana’s population increases and the disease burden doubles, it is imperative to estimate the potential supply and need for health professionals; and the level of investment in health professions education and employment that will be necessary to avert any mismatches.

Methods

Using a need-based health workforce planning framework, we triangulated data from multiple sources and systematically applied a previously published Microsoft® Excel-based model to conduct a fifteen-year projection of the HWF supply, needs, gaps and training requirements in the context of primary health care in Ghana.

Results

The projections show that based on the population (size and demographics), disease burden, the package of health services and the professional standards for delivering those services, Ghana needed about 221,593 health professionals across eleven categories in primary health care in 2020. At a rate of change between 3.2% and 10.7% (average: 5.5%) per annum, the aggregate need for health professionals is likely to reach 495,273 by 2035. By comparison, the current (2020) stock is estimated to grow from 148,390 to about 333,770 by 2035 at an average growth rate of 5.6%. The health professional’s stock is projected to meet 67% of the need but with huge supply imbalances. Specifically, the supply of six out of the 11 health professionals (~54.5%) cannot meet even 50% of the needs by 2035, but Midwives could potentially be overproduced by 32% in 2030.

Conclusion

Future health workforce strategy should endeavour to increase the intake of Pharmacy Technicians by more than seven-fold; General Practitioners by 110%; Registered general Nurses by 55% whilst Midwives scaled down by 15%. About US$ 480.39 million investment is required in health professions education to correct the need versus supply mismatches. By 2035, US$ 2.374 billion must be planned for the employment of those that would have to be trained to fill the need-based shortages and for sustaining the employment of those currently available.

Health care need and health disparities: Findings from the Regional South Australia Health (RESONATE) survey

Regional South Australia has some of the highest rates of psychological distress, chronic disease and multimorbidity of any Australian State or Territory. Yet, the healthcare needs of this population are still not completely understood. To better understand the healthcare needs of regional South Australians, we invited adults living in the region to complete the 44-item consumer utilisation, expectations and experiences of healthcare instrument (CONVERSATIONS), online or in hard-copy. The survey was conducted between April 2017 and March 2018. A multi-modal recruitment campaign was utilised to promote the survey. We examined associations between study outcomes and remoteness area, and drew comparisons between our findings and other surveys reporting pertinent outcomes in the urban SA population. The questionnaire was completed by 3,926 adults (52.5% females; 37.6% aged 60 + years). Among the 264 distinct health conditions reported by participants, the most prevalent were hypertension (31.6%), depression (25.7%), anxiety (23.5%) and hypercholesterolaemia (22.9%). The lifetime prevalence of these conditions among participants exceeded rates reported in urban SA. The largest regional-urban health disparities were observed for eczema/dermatitis, skin cancer, other cancer types and cataracts, where prevalence rates were 2075%, 400%, 373% and 324% higher, respectively, than that reported in urban SA. Participants also reported higher levels of multimorbidity (37.7% higher) relative to urban South Australians. By contrast, participants appeared to be exposed to fewer lifestyle risk behaviours (e.g. smoking, alcohol, inadequate fruit or vegetable intake) than their urban counterparts. In summary, there was a high level of healthcare need, and considerable health disparity among participants when compared with urban settings (particularly for skin and eye conditions). These findings highlight the need for a more targeted approach to delivering health services and health promotion activities in regional areas.

The health workforce demand: a systematic literature review

Understanding imbalances between the supply and demand of the human resour- ces for health (HRH) is essential for enhancing health outcomes. Addressing the HRH demand is particularly challenging, especially given the deficit of accurate data and surplus of unresolved methodological flaws. This study presents a systematic review of the literature surrounding HRH demand and answers the following key questions: How has HRH demand been addressed? What are the harms and barriers that accompany HRH demand modeling? This systematic review was performed following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses) statement. Relevant keywords were used in a thorough search of the PubMed/MEDLINE, SCOPUS, and Web of Science databases. A total of 2,599 papers were retrieved and evaluated according to their title and abstract. Of these, the full-text of 400 papers was analyzed, 53 of which successfully met the inclusion criteria in our study. While the topic's relevance is widespread, it still lacks a validated approach to model HRH demand adequately. The main characteristics of the applied methods are presented, such as their application complexity by health policymakers. Opportunities and orientations for further research are also highlighted.

Association of Child Maltreatment With Risk of Death During Childhood in South Australia

IMPORTANCE

Child maltreatment is a prominent public health concern affecting 20% to 50% of children worldwide. Consequences for mental and physical health have been reported, but population-level estimates of risk of death during childhood that are adjusted for confounders have not been published to date.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the association of documented child protection concerns regarding maltreatment with risk of death from infancy to 16 years of age.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This case-control study was nested in a population birth cohort of 608 547 persons born in South Australia, Australia. Case children were those who died between 1 month and 16 years of age (with the death registered by May 31, 2019). Control children were randomly selected individuals from the same population who were alive at the age at which the case child died, matched 5:1 for age, sex, and Aboriginal status. Data were analyzed from January 2019 to March 2021.

EXPOSURE

Children were assigned to 1 of 4 child protection concern categories (child protection system notification[s] only, investigation[s] [not substantiated], substantiated maltreatment, and ever placed in out-of-home care) based on administrative data from the South Australia Department for Child Protection or were classified as unexposed.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Mortality rate ratios for death before 16 years of age, by child protection concern category, were estimated using conditional logistic regression, adjusted for birth outcomes, maternal attributes, and area-based socioeconomic status. Patterns of cause of death were compared for children with vs without child protection concerns.

RESULTS

Of 606 665 children included in the study, 1635 were case children (57.9% male [when sex was known]; mean [SD] age, 3.59 [4.56] years) and 8175 were control children (57.7% male; mean [SD] age, 3.59 [4.56] years [age censored at the time of death of the matched control child]). Compared with children with no child protection system contact, adjusted mortality rate ratios among children who died before 16 years of age were 2.69 (95% CI, 2.05-3.54) for children with child protection system notification(s) only; 3.16 (95% CI, 2.25-4.43) for children with investigation(s) (not substantiated); 2.93 (95% CI, 1.95-4.40) with substantiated maltreatment; and 3.79 (95% CI, 2.46-5.85) for children ever placed in out-of-home care. External causes represented 136 of 314 deaths (43.3%) among children with a documented child protection concern and 288 of 1306 deaths (22.1%) among other children. Deaths from assault or self-harm were most overrepresented, accounting for 11.1% of deaths in children with child protection concerns but just 0.8% of deaths among other children.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this case-control study, children with documented child protection concerns, who were known to child protection agencies and were typically seen by clinicians and other service providers, had a higher risk of death compared with children with no child protection service contact. These findings suggest the need for a more comprehensive service response for children with protection concerns.

Health Service Activity Standards and Standard Workloads for Primary Healthcare in Ghana: A Cross-Sectional Survey of Health Professionals

The attainment of health system goals is largely hinged on the health workforce availability and performance; hence, health workforce planning is central to the health policy agenda. This study sought to estimate health service activity standards and standard workloads at the primary health care level in Ghana and explore any differences across health facility types. A nationally representative cross-sectional survey was conducted among 503 health professionals across eight health professions who provided estimates of health service activity standards in Ghana's Primary Health Care (PHC) settings. Outpatient consultation time was 16 min, translating into an annual standard workload of 6030 consultations per year for General Practitioners. Routine nursing care activities take an average of 40 min (95% CI: 38-42 min) for low acuity patients; and 135 min (95% CI: 127-144 min) for high dependency patients per inpatient day. Availability of tools/equipment correlated with reduced time on clinical procedure. Physician Assistants in health centres spend more time with patients than in district hospitals. Midwives spend 78 min more during vaginal delivery in health centres/polyclinics than in district/primary hospital settings. We identified 18.9% (12 out of 67) of health service activities performed across eight health professional groups to differ between health centres/polyclinics and district/primary hospitals settings. The workload in the health facilities was rated 78.2%, but as the workload increased, and without a commensurate increase in staffing, health professionals reduced the time spent on individual patient care, which could have consequences for the quality of care and patient safety. Availability of tools and equipment at PHC was rated 56.6%, which suggests the need to retool these health facilities. The estimated standard workloads lay a foundation for evidence-based planning for the optimal number of health professionals needed in Ghana's PHC system and the consequent adjustments necessary in both health professions education and the budgetary allocation for their employment. Finally, given similarity in results with Workload Indicators of Staffing Need (WISN) methodology used in Ghana, this study demonstrates that cross-sectional surveys can estimate health service activity standards that is suitable for health workforce planning just as the consensus-based estimates advocated in WISN.

The needs-based health workforce planning method: a systematic scoping review of analytical applications

Although the theoretical underpinnings and analytical framework for needs-based health workforce planning are well developed and tested, its uptake in national planning processes is still limited. Towards the development of open-access needs-based planning model for national workforce planning, we conducted a systematic scoping review of analytical applications of needs-based health workforce models. Guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses-extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist, a systematic scoping review was conducted. A systematic search of peer-reviewed literature published in English was undertaken across several databases. Papers retrieved were assessed against predefined inclusion criteria, critically appraised, extracted and synthesized. Twenty-five papers were included, which showed increasing uptake of the needs-based health workforce modelling, with 84% of the studies published within the last decade (2010-20). Three countries (Canada, Australia and England) accounted for 48% of the publications included whilst four studies (16%) were based on low-and-middle-income countries. Only three of the studies were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Most of the studies (36%) reported analytical applications for specific disease areas/programs at sub-national levels; 20% focused on the health system need for particular categories of health workers, and only two (8%) reported the analytical application of the needs-based health workforce approach at the level of a national health system across several disease areas/programs. Amongst the studies that conducted long-term projections, the time horizon of the projection was an average of 17 years, ranging from 3 to 33 years. Most of these studies had a minimum time horizon of 10 years. Across the studies, we synthesized six typical methodological considerations for advancing needs-based health workforce modelling. As countries aspire to align health workforce investments with population health needs, the need for some level of methodological harmonization, open-access needs-based models and guidelines for policy-oriented country-level use is not only imperative but urgent.

Advancing the Population Needs-Based Health Workforce Planning Methodology: A Simulation Tool for Country Application

Although the conceptual underpinnings of needs-based health workforce planning have developed over the last two decades, lingering gaps in empirical models and lack of open access tools have partly constrained its uptake in health workforce planning processes in countries. This paper presents an advanced empirical framework for the need-based approach to health workforce planning with an open-access simulation tool in Microsoft^® Excel to facilitate real-life health workforce planning in countries. Two fundamental mathematical models are used to quantify the supply of, and need for, health professionals, respectively. The supply-side model is based on a stock-and-flow process, and the need-side model extents a previously published analytical frameworks using the population health needs-based approach. We integrate the supply and need analyses by comparing them to establish the gaps in both absolute and relative terms, and then explore their cost implications for health workforce policy and strategy. To illustrate its use, the model was used to simulate a real-life example using midwives and obstetricians/gynaecologists in the context of maternal and new-born care in Ghana. Sensitivity analysis showed that if a constant level of health was assumed (as in previous works), the need for health professionals could have been underestimated in the long-term. Towards universal health coverage, the findings reveal a need to adopt the need-based approach for HWF planning and to adjust HWF supply in line with population health needs.

Child Maltreatment and Mortality in Young Adults

BACKGROUND

Child maltreatment (CM) is a global public health issue, with reported impacts on health and social outcomes. Evidence on mortality is lacking. In this study, we aimed to estimate the impact of CM on death rates in persons 16 to 33 years.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of all persons born in South Australia 1986 to 2003 using linked administrative data. CM exposure was based on child protection service (CPS) contact: unexposed, no CPS contact before 16 years, and 7 exposed groups. Deaths were observed until May 31, 2019 and plotted from 16 years. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) by CPS category were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for child and maternal characteristics. Incident rate ratios (IRRs) were derived for major causes of death, with and without CPS contact.

RESULTS

The cohort included 331 254 persons, 20% with CPS contact. Persons with a child protection matter notification and nonsubstantiated or substantiated investigation had more than twice the death rate compared with persons with no CPS contact: aHR = 2.09 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.62-2.70) to aHR = 2.61 (95% CI = 1.99-3.43). Relative to no CPS contact, persons ever placed in out-of-home care had the highest mortality if first placed in care aged ≥3 years (aHR = 4.67 [95% CI = 3.52-6.20]); aHR was 1.75(95% CI = 0.98-3.14) if first placed in care aged <3 years. The largest differential cause-specific mortality (any contact versus no CPS contact) was death from poisonings, alcohol, and/or other substances (IRR = 4.82 [95% CI = 3.31-7.01]) and from suicide (IRR = 2.82 [95% CI = 2.15-3.68]).

CONCLUSIONS

CM is a major underlying cause of potentially avoidable deaths in early adulthood. Clinical and family-based support for children and families in which CM is occurring must be a priority to protect children from imminent risk of harm and early death as young adults.

Barriers to mental health care for Australian children and adolescents in 1998 and 2013-2014

OBJECTIVE

To assess changes in barriers to mental health care for children and adolescents over 16 years.

METHODS

We used data from two nationally representative surveys of Australian children and adolescents (4-17 years old), conducted in 1998 (N = 4509) and 2013-2014 (N = 6310). Barriers to care were assessed among parents who had reported a perceived partially met or unmet need for their child in the past 6 months in 1998, and the past 12 months in 2013-2014; barriers were similarly assessed among adolescents in relation to themselves. We addressed measurement inconsistencies between surveys by harmonising barriers to accommodate differences in wording and performing sensitivity analyses among those with a 1-month disorder to equalise the timeframes in which barriers were assessed. To assess change, we examined whether the rank order of the three most commonly endorsed barriers changed and whether the 95% confidence intervals (CI) around their estimates overlapped.

RESULTS

Similar proportions of parents reported a partially met or unmet need in 1998 (12.9%, 95% CI = [11.7, 14.0]) as in 2013-2014 (14.3%, 95% CI = [13.2, 15.3]), but the ratio of unmet to partially met need decreased from 3:1 in 1998 to 1:1 in 2013-2014. Top three parent-endorsed barriers ('self-reliance', 'unsure where to get help', and 'cost') were the same at both time points; 'self-reliance' decreased from 65.9% (95% CI = [61.1%, 70.7%]) to 34.9% (95% CI = [31.5%, 38.3%]). Top two adolescent-endorsed barriers ('self-reliance' and 'concerned what others might think') were the same at both time points, the third differed, but none of them decreased.

CONCLUSION

Perceived unmet need for mental health care for children and adolescents may have decreased between 1998 and 2013-2014, but the gap in receiving sufficient care may have increased. Despite investments in community awareness and treatment during this period, key barriers seemed largely unchanged. For parents, the decrease in self-reliance may reflect a positive shift in beliefs about the potential benefits of treatment.

Hospitalizations among children involved in the child protection system: A long-term birth cohort study from infancy to adulthood using administrative data

BACKGROUND

Despite considerable health consequences of child abuse and neglect, there is limited evidence on hospitalizations in this population.

OBJECTIVES

To describe frequency and reasons for hospitalization by lifetime child protection system (CPS) involvement.

PARTICIPANTS

608,540 children born from January 1, 1986 to June 30, 2017 in South Australia, Australia METHODS: Using linked administrative data on CPS involvement and hospitalizations, we descriptively examined cumulative incidence, cumulative count and reasons for hospitalization from infancy to early adulthood by CPS involvement.

RESULTS

By 16.5 years of age, cumulative incidence of ever-being hospitalized was 58% (95% CI 58-58) for children with no CPS involvement and significantly higher (72% (95% CI 71-73) to 88% (95% CI 86-90), P < 0.001) among those with different levels of CPS involvement. Cumulative mean counts of hospitalizations were highest at every age for those placed in out-of-home-care (reaching 7.7 by 16.5 years), almost four times higher than for children with no CPS involvement (2.0 by 16.5 years). Most frequent reasons for hospitalizations were similar across CPS involvement in the early years. From adolescence through early adulthood, mental health, and 'injury, poisoning or toxic effects of drugs' were frequent reasons for hospitalization among individuals with CPS involvement.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the vulnerability of children who have been maltreated, or are at risk of maltreatment, and the urgency of implementing effective preventive strategies early in life including consideration of adequate responses of child protection services. Frequent hospitalizations for mental health and injury confirms the potentially preventable nature of these hospitalizations.

Towards establishing consistency in triage in a tertiary specialty

Clinical Genetics services provide a diagnostic, counselling and genetic testing service for children and adults affected by, or at risk of, a genetic condition, most of which are rare, and/or genetically heterogeneous. Appropriate triage of referrals is crucial to ensure that the most urgent referrals are seen as quickly as possible, without negatively impacting the waiting times of less urgent cases. We aimed to examine triage practice in six Clinical Genetic centres across the United Kingdom and Ireland. Thirteen simulated referrals were drafted based on common referrals to Clinical Genetics. Copies of each referral were forwarded to each centre, where 10 nominated clinicians were asked to triage each referral. Triaged referrals were returned to the coordinating author for analysis. An electronic questionnaire was contemporaneously completed by clinical leads in each unit to gather local demographic details and local operating procedures relevant to triage. Widespread inconsistencies were noted both within and between units, with respect to the acceptance of referrals to the services, prioritisation and designated clinic type. Referral rates, staffing levels and waiting lists varied widely between units. Inconsistencies observed between units are likely influenced by a number of factors, including staffing levels, referral rates and average family size. Inconsistency within units likely reflects the complex nature of many Clinical Genetic referrals, and triage guidelines should help improve decision-making in this setting.