Precipitation variability and risk of infectious disease in children under 5 years for 32 countries: a global analysis using Demographic and Health Survey data

Space-time distribution of intestinal infectious diseases and their association with socioeconomic variables in Ecuador

Background

Intestinal infectious diseases are a global concern in terms of morbidity, and they are closely linked to socioeconomic variables such as quality of life, weather and access to healthcare services. Despite progress in spatial analysis tools and geographic information systems in epidemiology, studies in Ecuador that evaluate temporal trends, specific geographic groups, and their correlation with socioeconomic variables are lacking. The absence of such information makes it challenging to formulate public health policies. This study sought to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of these diseases in Ecuador, along with their correlation with socioeconomic variables.

Methods

In Ecuador, the study was carried out in a continental territory, focusing on data related to intestinal infectious diseases collected from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos) during the period from 2014 to 2019. This study involved spatial and temporal analyses using tools such as the global Moran's index and Local Indicators of Spatial Association to identify spatial clustering patterns and autocorrelation. Additionally, correlations between morbidity rates and socioeconomic variables were examined.

Results

During the investigated period, Ecuador registered 209,668 cases of these diseases. Notable variations in case numbers were identified, with a 9.2% increase in 2019 compared to the previous year. The most impacted group was children under 5 years old, and the highest rates were centered in the southern and southwestern regions of the country, with Limón Indanza and Chunchi being the cantons with the highest rates, notably showing a significant increase in Limón Indanza. Additionally, there were significant correlations between morbidity rates and socioeconomic variables, school dropout rates, low birth weight, and access to water services.

Conclusion

This study emphasizes the importance of considering socioeconomic variables when addressing these diseases in Ecuador. Understanding these correlations and geospatial trends can guide the development of health policies and specific intervention programs to reduce the incidence in identified high-risk areas. More specific research is needed to understand the underlying causes of variability in morbidity and develop effective prevention strategies.

Rainfall and Temperature Influences on Childhood Diarrhea and the Effect Modification Role of Water and Sanitation Conditions: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlighted the worsening impacts of climate change. Two climate factors-temperature and rainfall uncertainties-influence the risk of childhood diarrhea, which remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. They create a conducive environment for diarrhea-causing pathogens and overwhelm environmental prevention measures. This study aimed to produce comprehensive evidence on the association of temperature and rainfall variability with the risk of childhood diarrhea and the influence of water and sanitation conditions on those associations. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) approach. Records published in English from 2006 to 2023 were searched on 8 January 2024 via PubMed, EMBASE, ScienceDirect, Scopus, the Cochrane Library, and Google/Google Scholar using comprehensive search terms. We assessed studies for any risk of bias using the Navigation Guide and rated the quality of the evidence using the GRADE approach. The heterogeneity among estimates was assessed using I-squared statistics (I2). The findings of the analysis were presented with forest plots using an incidence rate ratio (IRR). A meta-analysis was conducted on effect modifiers (water supply and sanitation conditions) using a random effects model with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The statistical analyses were conducted using R 4.3.2 software and Review Manager 5.3. A total of 2017 records were identified through searches, and only the 36 articles that met the inclusion criteria were included. The analysis suggests a small positive association between increased temperature and the occurrence of under-five diarrhea, with the pooled IRR = 1.04; 95% CI [1.03, 1.05], at I2 = 56% and p-value < 0.01, and increased rainfall and U5 diarrhea, with IRR = 1.14; 95% CI [1.03, 1.27], at I2 = 86% and p-value < 0.01. The meta-analysis indicated a positive association between unimproved latrine facilities and drinking water sources with a rainfall-modified effect on U5 diarrhea, with IRR = 1.21; 95% CI [0.95, 1.53], at I2 = 62% and p-value = 0.03. We found that an increase in mean temperature and rainfall was associated with an increased risk of childhood diarrhea. Where there were unimproved latrine facilities and drinking water sources, the increase in mean rainfall or temperature would increase the incidence of childhood diarrhea. The results of this review help in assessing the effectiveness of current intervention programs, making changes as needed, or creating new initiatives to lower the prevalence of childhood diarrhea.

Influence of hydrometeorological risk factors on child diarrhea and enteropathogens in rural Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

A number of studies have detected relationships between weather and diarrhea. Few have investigated associations with specific enteric pathogens. Understanding pathogen-specific relationships with weather is crucial to inform public health in low-resource settings that are especially vulnerable to climate change.

OBJECTIVES

Our objectives were to identify weather and environmental risk factors associated with diarrhea and enteropathogen prevalence in young children in rural Bangladesh, a population with high diarrheal disease burden and vulnerability to weather shifts under climate change.

METHODS

We matched temperature, precipitation, surface water, and humidity data to observational longitudinal data from a cluster-randomized trial that measured diarrhea and enteropathogen prevalence in children 6 months-5.5 years from 2012-2016. We fit generalized additive mixed models with cubic regression splines and restricted maximum likelihood estimation for smoothing parameters.

RESULTS

Comparing weeks with 30°C versus 15°C average temperature, prevalence was 3.5% higher for diarrhea, 7.3% higher for Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), 17.3% higher for enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC), and 8.0% higher for Cryptosporidium. Above-median weekly precipitation (median: 13mm; range: 0-396mm) was associated with 29% higher diarrhea (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.29, 95% CI 1.07, 1.55); higher Cryptosporidium, ETEC, STEC, Shigella, Campylobacter, Aeromonas, and adenovirus 40/41; and lower Giardia, sapovirus, and norovirus prevalence. Other associations were weak or null.

DISCUSSION

Higher temperatures and precipitation were associated with higher prevalence of diarrhea and multiple enteropathogens; higher precipitation was associated with lower prevalence of some enteric viruses. Our findings emphasize the heterogeneity of the relationships between hydrometeorological variables and specific enteropathogens, which can be masked when looking at composite measures like all-cause diarrhea. Our results suggest that preventive interventions targeted to reduce enteropathogens just before and during the rainy season may more effectively reduce child diarrhea and enteric pathogen carriage in rural Bangladesh and in settings with similar meteorological characteristics, infrastructure, and enteropathogen transmission.

Multidrug-resistant pathogens contaminate river water used in irrigation in disenfranchised communities

OBJECTIVES

The contamination of fresh surface waters poses a significant burden on human health and prosperity, especially in marginalized communities with limited resources and inadequate infrastructure. Here, we performed in-depth genomic analyses of multidrug-resistant bacteria (MDR-B) isolated from Al-Oueik river water that is used for irrigation of agricultural fields in a disenfranchised area that also hosts a makeshift Syrian refugee camp.

METHODS

A composite freshwater sample was filtered. Faecal coliforms were counted and extended spectrum cephalosporins and/or ertapenem resistant bacteria were screened. Isolates were identified using MALDI-TOF-MS and analysed using whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to identify the resistome, sequence types, plasmid types, and virulence genes.

RESULTS

Approximately 106 CFU/100 mL of faecal coliforms were detected in the water. Four drug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria were identified, namely Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Enterobacter hormaechei, and Pseudomonas otitidis. Notably, the E. coli isolate harboured blaNDM-5 and a YRIN-inserted PBP3, representing an emerging public health challenge. The K. pneumoniae isolate carried blaSHV-187 as well as mutations in the gene encoding the OmpK37 porin. Enterobacter hormaechei and P. otitidis harboured blaACT-16 and blaPOM-1, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This report provides comprehensive genomic analyses of MDR-B in irrigation water in Lebanon. Our results further support that irrigation water contaminated with faecal material can be a reservoir of important MDR-B, which can spread to adjacent agricultural fields and other water bodies, posing both public health and food safety issues. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement effective water quality monitoring and management programs to control the proliferation of antibiotic-resistant pathogens in irrigation water in Lebanon.

Perceived barriers of access to health and nutrition services under drought and food insecurity emergency in north-east Uganda: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

In the face of drought and food insecurity emergency, evidence on access to health and nutrition services is important. Karamoja is one of the regions that have experienced extreme drought and food insecurity emergency in Uganda. As a part of the drought and food insecurity emergency response, World Health Organization (WHO) with Ministry of Health (MoH) has designed and implemented a qualitative study in 15 districts that have experienced drought and food insecurity emergency in north-east Uganda. Thus, we aimed to explore the barriers of access to health and nutrition services in drought and food insecurity emergency affected districts in north-east Uganda.

METHODS

We employed a descriptive qualitative study design. We interviewed 30 patients and 20 Village Health Teams (VHT) from 15 districts. We employed an in-depth interview with semi-structured questions to collect data until information saturation reached. We used thematic data analysis approach by ATLAS.ti version 7.5.1.8 software.

RESULTS

Of the 30 interviewed subjects, 15 were female, and the median age of the subjects was 29 years with interquartile range (IQR) of 23 to 37 years. Majority (68.8%) of subjects reported that access to health and nutrition services was harder to them. Four themes: sociocultural and economic; environmental; health system, and individual related factors were identified as the barriers of access to health and nutrition services.

CONCLUSION

The present study identified several modifiable barriers that hinder access to health and nutrition services in drought and food insecurity affected districts. Comprehensive interventions aimed at addressing sociocultural, economic, environmental, health system and subject related challenges are required to improve access to health and nutrition services in drought and food insecurity affected setups.

The association between climatic factors and waterborne infectious outbreaks with a focus on vulnerability in Pakistan: integrative review

Climate change affects the spread of waterborne infectious diseases, yet research on vulnerability to outbreaks remains limited. This integrative review examines how climate variables (temperature and precipitation) relate to human vulnerability factors in Pakistan. By 2060, mean temperatures are projected to rise from 21.68°C (2021) to 30°C, with relatively stable precipitation. The epidemiological investigation in Pakistan identified Diarrhea (119,000 cases/year), Malaria (2.6 million cases/year), and Hepatitis (A and E) as the most prevalent infections. This research highlighted vulnerability factors, including poverty (52% of the population), illiteracy (59% of the population), limited healthcare accessibility (55% of the population), malnutrition (38% of the population), dietary challenges (48% of the population), as well as exposure to water pollution (80% of the population) and air pollution (55% of the population). The findings suggest that the coordinated strategies are vital across health, environmental, meteorological, and social sectors, considering climatic variability patterns and population vulnerability determinants.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to high ambient temperature across climate zones: methodological framework with a case study

BACKGROUND

With high temperature becoming an increasing health risk due to a changing climate, it is important to quantify the scale of the problem. However, estimating the burden of disease (BoD) attributable to high temperature can be challenging due to differences in risk patterns across geographical regions and data accessibility issues.

METHODS

We present a methodological framework that uses Köppen-Geiger climate zones to refine exposure levels and quantifies the difference between the burden observed due to high temperatures and what would have been observed if the population had been exposed to the theoretical minimum risk exposure distribution (TMRED). Our proposed method aligned with the Australian Burden of Disease Study and included two parts: (i) estimation of the population attributable fractions (PAF); and then (ii) estimation of the BoD attributable to high temperature. We use suicide and self-inflicted injuries in Australia as an example, with most frequent temperatures (MFTs) as the minimum risk exposure threshold (TMRED).

RESULTS

Our proposed framework to estimate the attributable BoD accounts for the importance of geographical variations of risk estimates between climate zones, and can be modified and adapted to other diseases and contexts that may be affected by high temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS

As the heat-related BoD may continue to increase in the future, this method is useful in estimating burdens across climate zones. This work may have important implications for preventive health measures, by enhancing the reproducibility and transparency of BoD research.