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Anikeeva O, Hansen A, Varghese B, Borg M, Zhang Y, Xiang J, Bi P. The impact of increasing temperatures due to climate change on infectious diseases. BMJ 2024; 387:e079343. [PMID: 39366706 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2024-079343] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/06/2024]
Abstract
Global temperatures will continue to rise due to climate change, with high temperature periods expected to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration. Infectious diseases, including vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever and malaria, waterborne diseases such as cholera, and foodborne diseases such as salmonellosis are influenced by temperature and other climatic variables, thus contributing to higher disease burden and associated healthcare costs, particularly in socioeconomically disadvantaged regions. Targeted efforts and investments are therefore needed to support low and middle income countries to prepare for and respond to the increasing infectious disease threats posed by rising temperatures. This can be facilitated by the development and refinement of robust disease and entomological surveillance and early warning systems with integration of climatic information that promote enhanced understanding of the geographic distribution of disease risk. To enhance healthcare workforce capacity and capability to respond to these public health threats, medical curricula and continuing professional education programmes for healthcare providers must include evidence based components on the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olga Anikeeva
- Department of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia SA 5005, Australia
| | - Alana Hansen
- Department of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia SA 5005, Australia
| | - Blesson Varghese
- Department of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia SA 5005, Australia
| | - Matthew Borg
- Department of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia SA 5005, Australia
| | - Ying Zhang
- University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Peng Bi
- Department of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia SA 5005, Australia
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Manchal N, Young MK, Castellanos ME, Leggat P, Adegboye O. A systematic review and meta-analysis of ambient temperature and precipitation with infections from five food-borne bacterial pathogens. Epidemiol Infect 2024; 152:e98. [PMID: 39168633 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268824000839] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Studies on climate variables and food pathogens are either pathogen- or region-specific, necessitating a consolidated view on the subject. This study aims to systematically review all studies on the association of ambient temperature and precipitation on the incidence of gastroenteritis and bacteraemia from Salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, Vibrio, and Listeria species. PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched up to 9 March 2023. We screened 3,204 articles for eligibility and included 83 studies in the review and three in the meta-analysis. Except for one study on Campylobacter, all showed a positive association between temperature and Salmonella, Shigella, Vibrio sp., and Campylobacter gastroenteritis. Similarly, most of the included studies showed that precipitation was positively associated with these conditions. These positive associations were found regardless of the effect measure chosen. The pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) for the three studies that included bacteraemia from Campylobacter and Salmonella sp. was 1.05 (95 per cent confidence interval (95% CI): 1.03, 1.06) for extreme temperature and 1.09 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.19) for extreme precipitation. If current climate trends continue, our findings suggest these pathogens would increase patient morbidity, the need for hospitalization, and prolonged antibiotic courses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Naveen Manchal
- Public Health and Tropical Medicine, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Megan K Young
- Metro North Public Health Unit, Metro North Hospital and Health Service, Brisbane, Australia
- School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Australia
- Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Maria Eugenia Castellanos
- Public Health and Tropical Medicine, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Vector-Borne and Neglected Tropical Diseases, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Peter Leggat
- Public Health and Tropical Medicine, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Vector-Borne and Neglected Tropical Diseases, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Oyelola Adegboye
- Public Health and Tropical Medicine, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Vector-Borne and Neglected Tropical Diseases, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
- Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT, Australia
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Austhof E, Warner S, Helfrich K, Pogreba-Brown K, Brown HE, Klimentidis YC, Scallan Walter E, Jervis RH, White AE. Exploring the association of weather variability on Campylobacter - A systematic review. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 252:118796. [PMID: 38582433 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.118796] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2024] [Revised: 03/11/2024] [Accepted: 03/25/2024] [Indexed: 04/08/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous work has found climate change-induced weather variability is suspected to increase the transmission of enteric pathogens, including Campylobacter, a leading cause of bacterial gastroenteritis. While the relationship between extreme weather events and diarrheal diseases has been documented, the specific impact on Campylobacter infections remains underexplored. OBJECTIVE To synthesize the peer-reviewed literature exploring the effect of weather variability on Campylobacter infections in humans. METHODS The review included English language, peer-reviewed articles, published up to September 1, 2022 in PubMed, Embase, GEOBASE, Agriculture and Environmental Science Database, and CABI Global Health exploring the effect of an antecedent weather event on human enteric illness caused by Campylobacter (PROSPERO Protocol # 351884). We extracted study information including data sources, methods, summary measures, and effect sizes. Quality and weight of evidence reported was summarized and bias assessed for each article. RESULTS After screening 278 articles, 47 articles (34 studies, 13 outbreak reports) were included in the evidence synthesis. Antecedent weather events included precipitation (n = 35), temperature (n = 30), relative humidity (n = 7), sunshine (n = 6), and El Niño and La Niña (n = 3). Reviewed studies demonstrated that increases in precipitation and temperature were correlated with Campylobacter infections under specific conditions, whereas low relative humidity and sunshine were negatively correlated. Articles estimating the effect of animal operations (n = 15) found presence and density of animal operations were significantly associated with infections. However, most of the included articles did not assess confounding by seasonality, presence of animal operations, or describe estimates of risk. DISCUSSION This review explores what is known about the influence of weather events on Campylobacter and identifies previously underreported negative associations between low relative humidity and sunshine on Campylobacter infections. Future research should explore pathogen-specific estimates of risk, which can be used to influence public health strategies, improve source attribution and causal pathways, and project disease burden due to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erika Austhof
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
| | - Shaylee Warner
- Department of Epidemiology, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO, USA
| | - Kathryn Helfrich
- Department of Epidemiology, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO, USA
| | - Kristen Pogreba-Brown
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Heidi E Brown
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Yann C Klimentidis
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | | | - Rachel H Jervis
- Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, Denver, CO, USA
| | - Alice E White
- Department of Epidemiology, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO, USA
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Proulx K, Daelmans B, Baltag V, Banati P. Climate change impacts on child and adolescent health and well-being: A narrative review. J Glob Health 2024; 14:04061. [PMID: 38781568 PMCID: PMC11115477 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.14.04061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Worldwide, the climate is changing and affecting the health and well-being of children in many ways. In this review, we provided an overview of how climate change-related events may affect child and adolescent health and well-being, including children's mental and physical health, nutrition, safety and security, learning opportunities, and family caregiving and connectedness. Methods In this narrative review, we highlighted and discussed peer-reviewed evidence from 2012-23, primarily from meta-analyses and systematic reviews. The search strategy used a large and varied number of search terms across three academic databases to identify relevant literature. Results There was consistent evidence across systematic reviews of impact on four themes. Climate-related events are associated with a) increases in posttraumatic stress and other mental health disorders in children and adolescents, b) increases in asthma, respiratory illnesses, diarrheal diseases and vector-borne diseases, c) increases in malnutrition and reduced growth and d) disruptions to responsive caregiving and family functioning, which can be linked to poor caregiver mental health, stress and loss of resources. Evidence of violence against children in climate-related disaster contexts is inconclusive. There is a lack of systematic review evidence on the associations between climate change and children's learning outcomes. Conclusions Systematic review evidence consistently points to negative associations between climate change and children's physical and mental health, well-being, and family functioning. Yet, much remains unknown about the causal pathways linking climate-change-related events and mental and physical health, responsive relationships and connectedness, nutrition, and learning in children and adolescents. This evidence is urgently needed so that adverse health and other impacts from climate change can be prevented or minimised through well-timed and appropriate action.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Bernadette Daelmans
- World Health Organization, Child Health and Development Unit, Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Ageing, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Valentina Baltag
- World Health Organization, Adolescent and Young Adult Health Unit, Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Ageing, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Prerna Banati
- World Health Organization, Adolescent and Young Adult Health Unit, Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Ageing, Geneva, Switzerland
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Grembi JA, Nguyen AT, Riviere M, Heitmann GB, Patil A, Athni TS, Djajadi S, Ercumen A, Lin A, Crider Y, Mertens A, Karim MA, Islam MO, Miah R, Famida SL, Hossen MS, Mutsuddi P, Ali S, Rahman MZ, Hussain Z, Shoab AK, Haque R, Rahman M, Unicomb L, Luby SP, Arnold BF, Bennett A, Benjamin-Chung J. Influence of hydrometeorological risk factors on child diarrhea and enteropathogens in rural Bangladesh. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2024; 18:e0012157. [PMID: 38739632 PMCID: PMC11115220 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0012157] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2023] [Revised: 05/23/2024] [Accepted: 04/18/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND A number of studies have detected relationships between weather and diarrhea. Few have investigated associations with specific enteric pathogens. Understanding pathogen-specific relationships with weather is crucial to inform public health in low-resource settings that are especially vulnerable to climate change. OBJECTIVES Our objectives were to identify weather and environmental risk factors associated with diarrhea and enteropathogen prevalence in young children in rural Bangladesh, a population with high diarrheal disease burden and vulnerability to weather shifts under climate change. METHODS We matched temperature, precipitation, surface water, and humidity data to observational longitudinal data from a cluster-randomized trial that measured diarrhea and enteropathogen prevalence in children 6 months-5.5 years from 2012-2016. We fit generalized additive mixed models with cubic regression splines and restricted maximum likelihood estimation for smoothing parameters. RESULTS Comparing weeks with 30°C versus 15°C average temperature, prevalence was 3.5% higher for diarrhea, 7.3% higher for Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), 17.3% higher for enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC), and 8.0% higher for Cryptosporidium. Above-median weekly precipitation (median: 13mm; range: 0-396mm) was associated with 29% higher diarrhea (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.29, 95% CI 1.07, 1.55); higher Cryptosporidium, ETEC, STEC, Shigella, Campylobacter, Aeromonas, and adenovirus 40/41; and lower Giardia, sapovirus, and norovirus prevalence. Other associations were weak or null. DISCUSSION Higher temperatures and precipitation were associated with higher prevalence of diarrhea and multiple enteropathogens; higher precipitation was associated with lower prevalence of some enteric viruses. Our findings emphasize the heterogeneity of the relationships between hydrometeorological variables and specific enteropathogens, which can be masked when looking at composite measures like all-cause diarrhea. Our results suggest that preventive interventions targeted to reduce enteropathogens just before and during the rainy season may more effectively reduce child diarrhea and enteric pathogen carriage in rural Bangladesh and in settings with similar meteorological characteristics, infrastructure, and enteropathogen transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica A. Grembi
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Anna T. Nguyen
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Marie Riviere
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Gabriella Barratt Heitmann
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Arusha Patil
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Tejas S. Athni
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Stephanie Djajadi
- Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - Ayse Ercumen
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Audrie Lin
- Department of Microbiology and Environmental Toxicology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Yoshika Crider
- King Center on Global Development, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Andrew Mertens
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Md Abdul Karim
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Md Ohedul Islam
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Rana Miah
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Syeda L. Famida
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Md Saheen Hossen
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Palash Mutsuddi
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Shahjahan Ali
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Md Ziaur Rahman
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Zahir Hussain
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Abul K. Shoab
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Rashidul Haque
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Mahbubur Rahman
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Leanne Unicomb
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Stephen P. Luby
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Benjamin F. Arnold
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation and Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Adam Bennett
- Malaria Elimination Initiative, Global Health Group, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America
- PATH, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Jade Benjamin-Chung
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
- Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, San Francisco, California, United States of America
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Nguyen AT, Grembi JA, Riviere M, Barratt Heitmann G, Hutson WD, Athni TS, Patil A, Ercumen A, Lin A, Crider Y, Mertens A, Unicomb L, Rahman M, Luby SP, Arnold BF, Benjamin-Chung J. Influence of Temperature and Precipitation on the Effectiveness of Water, Sanitation, and Handwashing Interventions against Childhood Diarrheal Disease in Rural Bangladesh: A Reanalysis of the WASH Benefits Bangladesh Trial. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2024; 132:47006. [PMID: 38602833 PMCID: PMC11008709 DOI: 10.1289/ehp13807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2023] [Revised: 03/08/2024] [Accepted: 03/13/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality globally. Household water, sanitation, and handwashing (WASH) interventions can reduce exposure to diarrhea-causing pathogens, but meteorological factors may impact their effectiveness. Information about effect heterogeneity under different weather conditions is critical to refining these targeted interventions. OBJECTIVES We aimed to determine whether temperature and precipitation modified the effect of low-cost, point-of-use WASH interventions on child diarrhea. METHODS We analyzed data from a trial in rural Bangladesh that compared child diarrhea prevalence between clusters (N = 720 ) that were randomized to different WASH interventions between 2012 and 2016 (NCT01590095). We matched temperature and precipitation measurements to diarrhea outcomes (N = 12,440 measurements, 6,921 children) by geographic coordinates and date. We estimated prevalence ratios (PRs) using generative additive models and targeted maximum likelihood estimation to assess the effectiveness of each WASH intervention under different weather conditions. RESULTS Generally, WASH interventions most effectively prevented diarrhea during monsoon season, particularly following weeks with heavy rain or high temperatures. The PR for diarrhea in the WASH interventions group compared with the control group was 0.49 (95% CI: 0.35, 0.68) after 1 d of heavy rainfall, with a less-protective effect [PR = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.60, 1.25)] when there were no days with heavy rainfall. Similarly, the PR for diarrhea in the WASH intervention group compared with the control group was 0.60 (95% CI: 0.48, 0.75) following above-median temperatures vs. 0.91 (95% CI: 0.61, 1.35) following below-median temperatures. The influence of precipitation and temperature varied by intervention type; for precipitation, the largest differences in effectiveness were for the sanitation and combined WASH interventions. DISCUSSION WASH intervention effectiveness was strongly influenced by precipitation and temperature, and nearly all protective effects were observed during the rainy season. Future implementation of these interventions should consider local environmental conditions to maximize effectiveness, including targeted efforts to maintain latrines and promote community adoption ahead of monsoon seasons. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13807.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna T. Nguyen
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Jessica A. Grembi
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Marie Riviere
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | | | - William D. Hutson
- Brown School, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, USA
| | - Tejas S. Athni
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Arusha Patil
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Ayse Ercumen
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - Audrie Lin
- Department of Microbiology and Environmental Toxicology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - Yoshika Crider
- King Center on Global Development, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Andrew Mertens
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Leanne Unicomb
- Environmental Health and WASH, Health System and Population Studies Division, ICDDR,B, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Mahbubur Rahman
- Environmental Health and WASH, Health System and Population Studies Division, ICDDR,B, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Stephen P. Luby
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Benjamin F. Arnold
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Jade Benjamin-Chung
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
- Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, San Francisco, California, USA
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7
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Leedom M. How climate change is changing vaccination planning. BMJ 2024; 384:q360. [PMID: 38503455 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.q360] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/21/2024]
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Flynn TG, Olortegui MP, Kosek MN. Viral gastroenteritis. Lancet 2024; 403:862-876. [PMID: 38340741 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)02037-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2023] [Revised: 08/17/2023] [Accepted: 09/18/2023] [Indexed: 02/12/2024]
Abstract
Since the discovery of norovirus in 1972 as a cause of what was contemporarily known as acute infectious non-bacterial gastroenteritis, scientific understanding of the viral gastroenteritides has continued to evolve. It is now recognised that a small number of viruses are the predominant cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide, in both high-income and low-income settings. Although treatment is still largely restricted to the replacement of fluid and electrolytes, improved diagnostics have allowed attribution of illness, enabling both targeted treatment of individual patients and prioritisation of interventions for populations worldwide. Questions remain regarding specific genetic and immunological factors underlying host susceptibility, and the optimal clinical management of patients who are susceptible to severe or prolonged manifestations of disease. Meanwhile, the worldwide implementation of rotavirus vaccines has led to substantial reductions in morbidity and mortality, and spurred interest in vaccine development to diminish the impact of the most prevalent viruses that are implicated in this syndrome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas G Flynn
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | | | - Margaret N Kosek
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
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Kim JH, Choi J, Kim C, Pak GD, Parajulee P, Haselbeck A, Park SE, Mogasale V, Jeon HJ, Browne AJ, Owusu-Dabo E, Rakotozandrindrainy R, Bassiahi AS, Teferi M, Lunguya-Metila O, Dolecek C, Pitzer VE, Crump JA, Hay SI, Marks F. Mapping the incidence rate of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2024; 18:e0011902. [PMID: 38408128 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011902] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Revised: 03/26/2024] [Accepted: 01/04/2024] [Indexed: 02/28/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND With more than 1.2 million illnesses and 29,000 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, typhoid fever continues to be a major public health problem. Effective control of the disease would benefit from an understanding of the subnational geospatial distribution of the disease incidence. METHOD We collated records of the incidence rate of typhoid fever confirmed by culture of blood in Africa from 2000 to 2022. We estimated the typhoid incidence rate for sub-Saharan Africa on 20 km × 20 km grids by exploring the association with geospatial covariates representing access to improved water and sanitation, health conditions of the population, and environmental conditions. RESULTS We identified six published articles and one pre-print representing incidence rate estimates in 22 sites in 2000-2022. Estimated incidence rates showed geospatial variation at sub-national, national, and regional levels. The incidence rate was high in Western and Eastern African subregions followed by Southern and Middle African subregions. By age, the incidence rate was highest among 5-14 yo followed by 2-4 yo, > 14 yo, and 0-1 yo. When aggregated across all age classes and grids that comprise each country, predicted incidence rates ranged from 43.7 (95% confidence interval: 0.6 to 591.2) in Zimbabwe to 2,957.8 (95% CI: 20.8 to 4,245.2) in South Sudan per 100,000 person-years. Sub-national heterogeneity was evident with the coefficient of variation at the 20 km × 20 km grid-level ranging from 0.7 to 3.3 and was generally lower in high-incidence countries and widely varying in low-incidence countries. CONCLUSION Our study provides estimates of 20 km × 20 km incidence rate of typhoid fever across sub-Saharan Africa based on data collected from 2000 through 2020. Increased understanding of the subnational geospatial variation of typhoid fever in Africa may inform more effective intervention programs by better targeting resources to heterogeneously disturbed disease risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jong-Hoon Kim
- International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jungsoon Choi
- Department of Mathematics, Hanyang University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Chaelin Kim
- International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Gi Deok Pak
- International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | | | | | - Se Eun Park
- International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Graduate School of Public Health, Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | | | - Hyon Jin Jeon
- International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Madagascar Institute for Vaccine Research, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Annie J Browne
- Malaria Atlas Project, Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, Australia
| | - Ellis Owusu-Dabo
- Malaria Atlas Project, Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, Australia
| | - Raphaël Rakotozandrindrainy
- School of Public Health, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Laing Building Complex J.W. Acheampong CI, Kumasi, Ghana
| | | | - Mekonnen Teferi
- Armauer Hansen Research Institute, ALERT Compound Zenebework, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Octavie Lunguya-Metila
- Department of Microbiology, Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo
- Department of Medical Biology, Microbiology Service, University Teaching Hospital, Ave De L'hopital, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Christiane Dolecek
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Virginia E Pitzer
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
- Yale Institute for Global Health, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - John A Crump
- Centre for International Health, Division of Health Sciences, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Florian Marks
- International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- School of Public Health, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Laing Building Complex J.W. Acheampong CI, Kumasi, Ghana
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
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10
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Chen CH, Low YY, Liu YH, Lin HH, Ho MW, Hsueh PR. Rapid detection of gastrointestinal pathogens using a multiplex polymerase chain reaction gastrointestinal panel and its role in antimicrobial stewardship. JOURNAL OF MICROBIOLOGY, IMMUNOLOGY, AND INFECTION = WEI MIAN YU GAN RAN ZA ZHI 2023; 56:1273-1283. [PMID: 37926631 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmii.2023.10.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2023] [Revised: 10/07/2023] [Accepted: 10/10/2023] [Indexed: 11/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The FilmArray gastrointestinal panel (FAGIP) is widely used to detect infectious diarrhoea due to its outstanding sensitivity compared to conventional methods, but there is geographic variation, such as in the distribution of pathogens, among populations. METHODS This was a retrospective study that analysed patients with acute diarrhoea who underwent FAGIP tests from all age groups during 2022. We compared positive rates of FAGIP between paediatric (n = 245) and adult patients (n = 242) of different origins. The targeted therapy rate and antimicrobial agent use rate were also analysed. RESULTS Among the 487 stool samples evaluated, the overall, community-origin (CO), and nosocomial (NC) positivity rates of paediatric patients were significantly higher than those of adults (73.9 % vs. 43.0 %, p = 0.000; 76.2 % vs. 51.7 %, p = 0.000; 50.0 % vs. 19.7 %, p = 0.000). Salmonella was the most frequently detected pathogen (35.9 %) in children, while the predominant pathogen in adult patients was toxin A/B-genic Clostridioides difficile (13.2 %). There was a significantly lower antimicrobial agent use rate after FAGIP results were available (79.1 % vs. 64.5 %, p = 0.000) and a higher rate of targeted therapy towards C. difficile infection in adults than in children (84.4 % vs. 69.0 %, p = 0.011). CONCLUSION Paediatric diarrhoea patients showed higher positivity rates than adult patients. Application of FAGIP for acute diarrhoea might lower unnecessary antimicrobial use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chih-Hao Chen
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Yan-Yi Low
- Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, China Medical University Children's Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Yu-Hsuan Liu
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Hsiu-Hsien Lin
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Mao-Wang Ho
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan; Department of Internal Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, School of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Po-Ren Hsueh
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan; Department of Internal Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, School of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan; Department of Laboratory Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, School of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan; PhD Program for Aging, School of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan.
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11
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Donnelly MC, Talley NJ. Effects of climate change on digestive health and preventative measures. Gut 2023; 72:2199-2201. [PMID: 37977585 DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2023-331187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Nicholas J Talley
- HMRI Building, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia
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12
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Kim CL, Agampodi S, Marks F, Kim JH, Excler JL. Mitigating the effects of climate change on human health with vaccines and vaccinations. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1252910. [PMID: 37900033 PMCID: PMC10602790 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1252910] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2023] [Accepted: 09/04/2023] [Indexed: 10/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change represents an unprecedented threat to humanity and will be the ultimate challenge of the 21st century. As a public health consequence, the World Health Organization estimates an additional 250,000 deaths annually by 2030, with resource-poor countries being predominantly affected. Although climate change's direct and indirect consequences on human health are manifold and far from fully explored, a growing body of evidence demonstrates its potential to exacerbate the frequency and spread of transmissible infectious diseases. Effective, high-impact mitigation measures are critical in combating this global crisis. While vaccines and vaccination are among the most cost-effective public health interventions, they have yet to be established as a major strategy in climate change-related health effect mitigation. In this narrative review, we synthesize the available evidence on the effect of climate change on vaccine-preventable diseases. This review examines the direct effect of climate change on water-related diseases such as cholera and other enteropathogens, helminthic infections and leptospirosis. It also explores the effects of rising temperatures on vector-borne diseases like dengue, chikungunya, and malaria, as well as the impact of temperature and humidity on airborne diseases like influenza and respiratory syncytial virus infection. Recent advances in global vaccine development facilitate the use of vaccines and vaccination as a mitigation strategy in the agenda against climate change consequences. A focused evaluation of vaccine research and development, funding, and distribution related to climate change is required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cara Lynn Kim
- International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Suneth Agampodi
- International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Section of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, United States
| | - Florian Marks
- International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Madagascar Institute for Vaccine Research, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Jerome H. Kim
- International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- College of Natural Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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13
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Zhu Z, Feng Y, Gu L, Guan X, Liu N, Zhu X, Gu H, Cai J, Li X. Spatio-temporal pattern and associate factors of intestinal infectious diseases in Zhejiang Province, China, 2008-2021: a Bayesian modeling study. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:1652. [PMID: 37644452 PMCID: PMC10464402 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16552-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 08/17/2023] [Indexed: 08/31/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite significant progress in sanitation status and public health awareness, intestinal infectious diseases (IID) have caused a serious disease burden in China. Little was known about the spatio-temporal pattern of IID at the county level in Zhejiang. Therefore, a spatio-temporal modelling study to identify high-risk regions of IID incidence and potential risk factors was conducted. METHODS Reported cases of notifiable IID from 2008 to 2021 were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Moran's I index and the local indicators of spatial association (LISA) were calculated using Geoda software to identify the spatial autocorrelation and high-risk areas of IID incidence. Bayesian hierarchical model was used to explore socioeconomic and climate factors affecting IID incidence inequities from spatial and temporal perspectives. RESULTS From 2008 to 2021, a total of 101 cholera, 55,298 bacterial dysentery, 131 amoebic dysentery, 5297 typhoid, 2102 paratyphoid, 27,947 HEV, 1,695,925 hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), and 1,505,797 other infectious diarrhea (OID) cases were reported in Zhejiang Province. The hot spots for bacterial dysentery, OID, and HEV incidence were found mainly in Hangzhou, while high-high cluster regions for incidence of enteric fever and HFMD were mainly located in Ningbo. The Bayesian model showed that Areas with a high proportion of males had a lower risk of BD and enteric fever. People under the age of 18 may have a higher risk of IID. High urbanization rate was a protective factor against HFMD (RR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.94), but was a risk factor for HEV (RR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01-1.10). BD risk (RR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.10-1.18) and enteric fever risk (RR = 1.18, 95% CI:1.10-1.27) seemed higher in areas with high GDP per capita. The greater the population density, the higher the risk of BD (RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.23-1.36), enteric fever (RR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.00-1.25), and HEV (RR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.09-1.21). Among climate variables, higher temperature was associated with a higher risk of BD (RR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.23-1.41), enteric fever (RR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.33-1.50), and HFMD (RR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.08-1.38), and with lower risk of HEV (RR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78-0.89). Precipitation was positively correlated with enteric fever (RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00-1.08), HFMD (RR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00-1.06), and HEV (RR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.03-1.08). Higher HFMD risk was also associated with increasing relative humidity (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.16-1.24) and lower wind velocity (RR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.84-0.92). CONCLUSIONS There was significant spatial clustering of IID incidence in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2021. Spatio-temporal patterns of IID risk could be largely explained by socioeconomic and meteorological factors. Preventive measures and enhanced monitoring should be taken in some high-risk counties in Hangzhou city and Ningbo city.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhixin Zhu
- Department of Big Data in Health Science, and Center for Clinical Big Data and Statistics, The Second Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Yan Feng
- Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, 310051, China
| | - Lanfang Gu
- Department of Big Data in Health Science, and Center for Clinical Big Data and Statistics, The Second Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Xifei Guan
- Department of Big Data in Health Science, and Center for Clinical Big Data and Statistics, The Second Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Nawen Liu
- Department of Big Data in Health Science, and Center for Clinical Big Data and Statistics, The Second Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Xiaoxia Zhu
- Department of Big Data in Health Science, and Center for Clinical Big Data and Statistics, The Second Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Hua Gu
- The Cancer Hospital of the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Zhejiang Cancer Hospital), Institute of Basic Medicine and Cancer, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hangzhou, 310022, China
| | - Jian Cai
- Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, 310051, China.
| | - Xiuyang Li
- Department of Big Data in Health Science, and Center for Clinical Big Data and Statistics, The Second Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
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Njoga EO, Ilo SU, Nwobi OC, Onwumere-Idolor OS, Ajibo FE, Okoli CE, Jaja IF, Oguttu JW. Pre-slaughter, slaughter and post-slaughter practices of slaughterhouse workers in Southeast, Nigeria: Animal welfare, meat quality, food safety and public health implications. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0282418. [PMID: 36867613 PMCID: PMC9983863 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0282418] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2022] [Accepted: 02/10/2023] [Indexed: 03/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Pre-slaughter stress or the welfare condition of food-producing animals (FPAs) and the slaughter practices of slaughterhouse workers (SHWs) are critically important for the safety and quality of meats processed in slaughterhouses (SHs). Consequently, this study determined the pre-slaughter, slaughter, and post-slaughter (PSP) practices of SHWsin four SHs in Southeast, Nigeria; and discussed the impacts on meat quality and safety. METHODS The PSP practices were determined by observation method. Additionally, a structured and validated closed-ended questionnaire was used to determine the knowledge of the SHWs on: the effects of poor welfare (preslaughter stress) on the quality and safety of meats produced, carcass/meat processing practices and modes of transmission of meat-borne zoonotic pathogens during carcass/meat processing. Finally, a systematic post-mortem inspection (PMI) was conducted on cattle, pigs and goats slaughtered, and economic losses accruable from condemned carcasses/meats were estimated. RESULTS Food-producing animals were transported to the SHs or held in the lairage under inhumane conditions. A pig being conveyed to one of the SHs was seen gasping for air, as it was firmly tied on motorbike at the thoracic and abdominal regions. Fatigued cattle were forcefully dragged on the ground from the lairage to the killing floor. Cattle for slaughter were restrained, held in lateral recumbency and left groaning, due to extreme discomfort, for about one hour before slaughter. Stunning was not performed. Singed pig carcasses were dragged on the ground to the washing point. Although more than 50% of the respondents knew the modes of transmission of meat-borne zoonotic pathogens during meat processing, 71.3% of the SHWs processed carcasses on bare floor, 52.2% used same bowl of water to wash multiple carcasses while 72% did not wear personal protective equipment during meat/carcass processing. Processed meats were transported to meat shops in an unsanitary conditions, using open vans and tricycles. During the PMI, diseased carcasses/meats/organs were detected in 5.7% (83/1452), 2.1% (21/1006) and 0.8% (7/924) of the cattle, pig and goat carcasses inspected, respectively. Gross lesions pathognomonic of bovine tuberculosis, contagious bovine pleuro-pneumonia, fascioliasis and porcine cysticercosis were detected. Consequently, 391,089.2 kg of diseased meat/organs valued at 978 million Naira (235, 030 USD) were condemned. There were significant associations (p < 0.05) between educational level and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) during slaughterhouse operations and knowledge that FPAs can harbour zoonotic pathogens (p = < 0.001) transmissible during carcass processing. Similarly, significant association was observed between working experience and use of PPE; and between geographical location of the respondents and knowledge that zoonotic pathogens in animals are transmissible during carcass processing or via the food chain. CONCLUSION The findings show that slaughter practices of SHWs have detrimental impacts on the quality and safety of meats processed for human consumption in Southeast, Nigeria. These findings underscore the need to: improve the welfare condition of slaughter-animals, mechanise abattoir operations, train and retrain the SHWs on hygienic carcass/meat processing practices. There is a need to adopt strict enforcement of food safety laws to promote meat quality, food safety and consequently promote the health of the public.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emmanuel O. Njoga
- Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria
| | - Stanley U. Ilo
- Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria
| | - Obichukwu C. Nwobi
- Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria
| | - Onyinye S. Onwumere-Idolor
- Department of Animal Production, Faculty of Agriculture, Delta State University of Science and Technology, Ozoro, Delta State, Nigeria
| | - Festus E. Ajibo
- Department of Animal Health and Production, Enugu State Polytechnic, Iwollo, Nigeria
| | - Chinwe E. Okoli
- Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Ishmael F. Jaja
- Department of Agriculture and Animal Health, College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, University of South Africa, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - James W. Oguttu
- Department of Agriculture and Animal Health, College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, University of South Africa, Johannesburg, South Africa
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15
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Badr HS, Colston JM, Nguyen NLH, Chen YT, Burnett E, Ali SA, Rayamajhi A, Satter SM, Van Trang N, Eibach D, Krumkamp R, May J, Adegnika AA, Manouana GP, Kremsner PG, Chilengi R, Hatyoka L, Debes AK, Ateudjieu J, Faruque ASG, Hossain MJ, Kanungo S, Kotloff KL, Mandomando I, Nisar MI, Omore R, Sow SO, Zaidi AKM, Lambrecht N, Adu B, Page N, Platts-Mills JA, Mavacala Freitas C, Pelkonen T, Ashorn P, Maleta K, Ahmed T, Bessong P, Bhutta ZA, Mason C, Mduma E, Olortegui MP, Peñataro Yori P, Lima AAM, Kang G, Humphrey J, Ntozini R, Prendergast AJ, Okada K, Wongboot W, Langeland N, Moyo SJ, Gaensbauer J, Melgar M, Freeman M, Chard AN, Thongpaseuth V, Houpt E, Zaitchik BF, Kosek MN. Spatiotemporal variation in risk of Shigella infection in childhood: a global risk mapping and prediction model using individual participant data. Lancet Glob Health 2023; 11:e373-e384. [PMID: 36796984 PMCID: PMC10020138 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(22)00549-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2022] [Revised: 11/18/2022] [Accepted: 12/14/2022] [Indexed: 02/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of childhood illness and death globally, and Shigella is a major aetiological contributor for which a vaccine might soon be available. The primary objective of this study was to model the spatiotemporal variation in paediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS Individual participant data for Shigella positivity in stool samples were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies of children aged 59 months or younger. Covariates included household-level and participant-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum. FINDINGS 20 studies from 23 countries (including locations in Central America and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia) contributed 66 563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Probability of Shigella infection exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhoea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Compared with unimproved sanitation, improved sanitation decreased the odds of Shigella infection by 19% (odds ratio [OR]=0·81 [95% CI 0·76-0·86]) and open defecation decreased them by 18% (OR=0·82 [0·76-0·88]). INTERPRETATION The distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors, such as temperature, than previously recognised. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, although hotspots also occur in South America and Central America, the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, and the island of New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritisation of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns. FUNDING NASA, National Institutes of Health-The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hamada S Badr
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Baltimore, MA, USA
| | - Josh M Colston
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | | | - Yen Ting Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Eleanor Burnett
- Division of Viral Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Syed Asad Ali
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Ajit Rayamajhi
- Department of Pediatrics, National Academy of Medical Sciences, Kanti Children's Hospital, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Syed M Satter
- Programme for Emerging Infections, Infectious Diseases Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Daniel Eibach
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine (BNITM), Hamburg, Germany
| | - Ralf Krumkamp
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine (BNITM), Hamburg, Germany
| | - Jürgen May
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine (BNITM), Hamburg, Germany
| | - Ayola Akim Adegnika
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, Universitätsklinikum Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
| | | | | | - Roma Chilengi
- Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Luiza Hatyoka
- Enteric diseases and Vaccines Unit, Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Amanda K Debes
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Jerome Ateudjieu
- Faculty of Medicine and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Dschang, Dschang, Cameroon; Department of Health Research, M A SANTE (Meileur Acces aux Soins en Santé), Yaoundé, Cameroon; Division of Health Operations Research, Cameroon Ministry of Public Health, Yaoundé, Cameroon
| | - Abu S G Faruque
- Centre for Nutrition & Food Security, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - M Jahangir Hossain
- Medical Research Council Unit, The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Suman Kanungo
- National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases, Kolkota, India
| | - Karen L Kotloff
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | - M Imran Nisar
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Richard Omore
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, Center for Global Health Research, Kisumu, Nyanza, Kenya
| | - Samba O Sow
- Centre pour le Développement des Vaccins, Mali, Bamako, Mali
| | - Anita K M Zaidi
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Nathalie Lambrecht
- Institute of Public Health, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Research Department 2, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Bright Adu
- Department of Immunology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana
| | - Nicola Page
- Centre for Enteric Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - James A Platts-Mills
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | | | - Tuula Pelkonen
- New Children's Hospital, Pediatric Research Center and Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Per Ashorn
- Centre for Child, Adolescent, and Maternal Health Research, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University and Tampere University Hospital, Tampere, Finland
| | - Kenneth Maleta
- College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Tahmeed Ahmed
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Pascal Bessong
- HIV/AIDS & Global Health Research Programme, University of Venda, Thohoyandou, Limpopo, South Africa
| | - Zulfiqar A Bhutta
- Center of Excellence in Women and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Carl Mason
- Department of Enteric Diseases, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences (AFRIMS), Bangkok, Thailand
| | | | | | - Pablo Peñataro Yori
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | - Aldo A M Lima
- Department of Physiology and Pharmacology, Faculty of Medicine, Federal University of Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil
| | - Gagandeep Kang
- Department of Gastrointestinal Sciences, Christian Medical College, Vellore, India
| | - Jean Humphrey
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Robert Ntozini
- Zvitambo Institute for Maternal and Child Health Research, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | | | - Kazuhisa Okada
- Research Institute for Microbial Diseases, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan
| | - Warawan Wongboot
- Department of Medical Sciences, National Institute of Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Nina Langeland
- Department of Clinical Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Sabrina J Moyo
- Department of Clinical Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - James Gaensbauer
- Center for Global Health, Department of Epidemiology, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO, USA
| | - Mario Melgar
- Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Hospital Roosevelt, Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | - Matthew Freeman
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, 30322, GA, USA
| | - Anna N Chard
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, 30322, GA, USA
| | - Vonethalom Thongpaseuth
- Laboratory and Treatment Unit, Center for Malariology, Parasitology, and Entomology, Ministry of Health, Vientiane, Lao PDR
| | - Eric Houpt
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | - Benjamin F Zaitchik
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Baltimore, MA, USA.
| | - Margaret N Kosek
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA
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16
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Xu E, Li Y, Li T, Li Q. Association between ambient temperature and ambulance dispatch: a systematic review and meta-analysis. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:66335-66347. [PMID: 35499723 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-20508-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/25/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Previous studies have quantified the associations between ambient temperature and dispatch of ambulances, but the conclusions are still controversial. Therefore, a systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to summarize all the current evidence. A systematic review of published literature was undertaken to characterize the effect of temperature on ambulance dispatch. We completed the literature search by the end of January 5, 2022. The pooled estimates for different temperature exposures were calculated using a random effects model. Differences among temperature pooled estimates were determined using subgroup analysis. This study was registered with PROSPERO under the number CRD42021284434. This is the first meta-analysis investigating the association between temperature and ambulance dispatch. A total of 25 studies were eligible for this study. The overall increased risks of high temperature, expressed as relative risks, were 1.734 (95% CI: 1.481-2.031). Subgroup analysis found that for the study using daily mean temperature, the high temperature increased the risk of ambulance dispatch by 15.2% (RR = 1.152, 95%CI: 1.081-1.228). In the ambulance dispatch of all-cause subgroups, the RR was 1.179 (95% CI: 1.085-1.282). The results also reported a significant association between low temperature and ambulance dispatch (RR = 1.130, 95% CI: 1.052-1.213). In the subgroup, the RR for cardiovascular disease was 1.209 (95% CI: 1.033-1.414), and respiratory disease was 1.126 (95% CI: 1.012-1.253). Sensitivity analysis indicated that the results were robust, and no obvious publication bias was observed. High temperature and low temperature are important factors influencing the dispatch of ambulances. These findings help improve the understanding of temperature effect on ambulance dispatch, demonstrating the need to consider wider surveillance of acute health outcomes in different environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Er Xu
- Hospital Infection Management Office, Affiliated Hospital of Shaoxing University, Shaoxing, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Yanni Li
- Public Health Department, Affiliated Hospital of Shaoxing University, Shaoxing, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Tingting Li
- Department of Endocrinology, Rheumatology and Immunology, Affiliated Hospital of Shaoxing University, Shaoxing, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Qing Li
- Hospital Infection Management Office, Affiliated Hospital of Shaoxing University, Shaoxing, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China.
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Anqing Municipal Hospital, Anqing, Anhui, People's Republic of China.
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Liu J, Varghese BM, Hansen A, Zhang Y, Driscoll T, Morgan G, Dear K, Gourley M, Capon A, Bi P. Heat exposure and cardiovascular health outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6:e484-e495. [PMID: 35709806 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00117-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 111] [Impact Index Per Article: 55.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2021] [Revised: 04/17/2022] [Accepted: 04/21/2022] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heat exposure is an important but underappreciated risk factor contributing to cardiovascular disease. Warming temperatures might therefore pose substantial challenges to population health, especially in a rapidly aging population. To address a potential increase in the burden of cardiovascular disease, a better understanding of the effects of ambient heat on different types of cardiovascular disease and factors contributing to vulnerability is required, especially in the context of climate change. This study reviews the current epidemiological evidence linking heat exposures (both high temperatures and heatwaves) with cardiovascular disease outcomes, including mortality and morbidity. METHODS In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, and Scopus for literature published between Jan 1, 1990, and March 10, 2022, and evaluated the quality of the evidence following the Navigation Guide Criteria. We included original research on independent study populations in which the exposure metric was high temperatures or heatwaves, and observational studies using ecological time series, case crossover, or case series study designs comparing risks over different exposures or time periods. Reviews, commentaries, grey literature, and studies that examined only seasonal effects without explicitly considering temperature were excluded. The risk estimates were derived from included articles and if insufficient data were available we contacted the authors to provide clarification. We did a random-effects meta-analysis to pool the relative risk (RR) of the association between high temperatures and heatwaves and cardiovascular disease outcomes. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021232601). FINDINGS In total, 7360 results were returned from our search of which we included 282 articles in the systematic review, and of which 266 were eligible for the meta-analysis. There was substantial heterogeneity for both mortality (high temperatures: I2=93·6%, p<0·0001; heatwaves: I2=98·9%, p<0·0001) and morbidity (high temperatures: I2=98·8%, p<0·0001; heatwaves: I2=83·5%, p<0·0001). Despite the heterogeneity in environmental conditions and population dynamics among the reviewed studies, results showed that a 1°C increase in temperature was positively associated with cardiovascular disease-related mortality across all considered diagnoses. The overall risk of cardiovascular disease-related mortality increased by 2·1% (RR 1·021 [95%CI 1·020-1·023]), with the highest specific disease risk being for stroke and coronary heart disease. A 1°C temperature rise was also associated with a significant increase in morbidity due to arrhythmias and cardiac arrest and coronary heart disease. Our findings suggest heat exposure leads to elevated risk of morbidity and mortality for women, people 65 years and older, individuals living in tropical climates, and those in countries of lower-middle income. Heatwaves were also significantly associated with a 17% increase in risk of mortality (RR 1·117 [95% CI 1·093-1·141]), and increasing heatwave intensity with an increasing risk (RR 1·067 [95% CI 1·056-1·078] for low intensity, 1·088 [1·058-1·119] for middle intensity, and 1·189 [1·109-1·269] for high intensity settings). INTERPRETATION This review strengthens the evidence on the increase in cardiovascular disease risk due to ambient heat exposures in different climate zones. The widespread prevalence of exposure to hot temperatures, in conjunction with an increase in the proportion of older people in the population, might result in a rise in poor cardiovascular disease health outcomes associated with a warming climate. Evidence-based prevention measures are needed to attenuate peaks in cardiovascular events during hot spells, thereby lowering the worldwide total heat-related burden of cardiovascular disease-related morbidity and death. FUNDING Australian Research Council Discovery Program.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingwen Liu
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Blesson M Varghese
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Alana Hansen
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Ying Zhang
- Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Timothy Driscoll
- Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Geoffrey Morgan
- Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Keith Dear
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Michelle Gourley
- Burden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Anthony Capon
- Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
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