Rubella epidemiology in South East England

Assessing herd immunity against rubella in Japan: a retrospective seroepidemiological analysis of age-dependent transmission dynamics

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to epidemiologically assess rubella herd immunity as a function of time, age and gender in Japan, with reference to the recent 2012-2014 rubella epidemic.

DESIGN

This study is a retrospective seroepidemiological analysis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The susceptible fraction of the population was examined as a function of age and time. The age at infection was assessed using reported case data.

RESULTS

Whereas 30 years ago rubella cases were seen only among children, the median (25-75th centiles) age of cases in 2014 was elevated to 32.0 (17.0-42.0) years among males and 27.0 (7.0-37.0) years among females. Susceptible pockets among male birth cohorts 1989-1993 and 1974-1978 were identified, with seropositive proportions of 70.0% and 68.0%, respectively. The majority of female age groups had greater seropositive proportions than the herd immunity threshold, with a minor susceptible pocket for those born from 1989 to 1993 (78.3% seropositive). The age-standardised seronegative proportion decreased to 18.3% (95% CI 16.8% to 19.8%) among males and 15.6% (95% CI 10.0% to 21.2%) among females in 2013, and the immune fraction was not sufficiently below the herd immunity threshold. While the number of live births born to susceptible mothers in 1983 was estimated at 171,876 across Japan, in 2013 it was reduced to 23,698.

CONCLUSIONS

An elevated age at rubella virus infection and the presence of susceptible pockets among adults were observed in Japan. Although, overall, the absolute number of rubella cases has steadily declined in Japan, the elevated age of rubella cases, along with increased numbers of susceptible adults, contributed to the observation of as many as 45 congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) cases, which calls for supplementary vaccination among susceptible adults. Assessing herd immunity is considered essential for routinely monitoring the risk of future rubella epidemics and CRS cases.

Current epidemiology of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome in Australia: progress towards elimination

This study evaluates the evidence for elimination of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in Australia, drawing on three national serosurveys conducted between 1996 and 2007 and supported by statutory notification and vaccine coverage data. Anti-rubella IgG seropositivity was defined as ≥ 10 IU/ml by EIA. Between 1998 and 2007, rubella notifications fell >100-fold, to an average of 2 cases per million and there were five confirmed cases of CRS, two of which were locally acquired in 2003. Weighted overall seropositivity remained constant among 1-49 year-olds (89.6% in 1999; 88.1% in 2007). Between 2002 and 2009, 95% of children received at least one dose of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. All three serosurveys provided estimates for R less than 0.5, well below the epidemic threshold of 1. All available data are supportive of Australia being considered for elimination status. Further reductions in incidence of CRS will require continued attention to vaccine coverage in overseas-born women, as well as the maintenance of current high coverage level of two-dose MMR vaccination.

The predicted impact of private sector MMR vaccination on the burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome

In many developing countries, Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR) vaccine is available through the private but not the public sectors, and there is no systematic rubella vaccination among adult women. In this paper, we extend previous modeling studies to demonstrate that in developing countries with a medium-high force of infection (200-400/1000 per year), current levels of private sector MMR coverage (<60%) would lead to increases in the incidence of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) both among unvaccinated individuals and the general population even when mixing between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals is fairly minimal. Our findings highlight the need for countries to establish surveillance of trends in susceptibility to rubella and CRS incidence and perhaps introduce rubella vaccination among women of child-bearing age.

Maternal rubella-specific antibody prevalence in Ethiopian infants

In countries with a high transmission rate of rubella the optimal age for universal rubella vaccination of infants is critically dependent upon the rate of loss of maternal antibodies. Few studies have investigated the decay characteristics of such antibodies. Mother:infant pairs were recruited at the Ethio-Swedish Children's Hospital, Addis Ababa, in 1994/95. Rubella antibody levels, determined by radial haemolysis, were available for analysis from 1542 infants aged 0-12 months, with 942 repeat measures, and from 846 mothers. Decay in seropositivity was well described by a delayed exponential function. The proportion seropositive at age 6, 9, or 12 months was 6-13%, 1-4%, or 0-1%, respectively, dependent upon assay cutoff level. Only infant age and mother's antibody level were important predictors of seropositivity. Results suggest that the success of vaccination at age 9 months or above would be little affected by residual maternal antibodies.

Back-calculating the age-specific incidence of recurrent subclinical Haemophilus influenzae type b infection

We consider the estimation of an age-specific incidence rate of a subclinical Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infection from data recording the ages of children with a clinical Hib infection (Hib disease). The model is based on the assumption that the probability of being immune to clinical infection is determined by the time of the previous immunization caused by a subclinical infection, and by the distribution of the duration of immunity. We use a non-parametric Bayesian intensity model to arrive at smooth estimates of incidence rates. The estimated age-specific incidence rate of subclinical Hib infection is almost constant which indicates that the observed age-specific pattern of clinical Hib infection incidence is mainly due to immunity by either maternally derived antibodies or by immunizing subclinical infections. The estimated rate is relatively high, corresponding to one immunizing subclinical infection in less than two years.

Seroepidemiological study of respiratory syncytial virus in São Paulo state, Brazil

Transmission of respiratory syncytial virus is thought to be highly seasonal based on reported clinical cases, although transmission resulting in mild disease in all age groups has been little studied. This has been investigated in a seroepidemiological survey using sera from São Paulo, Brazil. Seroprevalence was found to increase rapidly with age, reaching over 90% by three years of age. This is typical of viral infections, which produce life-long immunity following primary infection. One-hundred percent seropositivity was attained by five years of age and maintained throughout adulthood, whereas mean antibody titers continued to increase with age. The mean duration of maternal antibodies was estimated to be 3.3 months with antibody decay demonstrated in paired samples from infants. The results are discussed in relation to possible mechanisms generating such a profile.

A comparison of oral fluid and serum for the detection of rubella-specific antibodies in a community study in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

OBJECTIVE

To assess the utility of oral fluid compared with serum for the determination of age-prevalence of rubella-specific antibodies in an urban African community setting.

METHOD

Paired serum and oral fluid samples were collected from 439 individuals aged 0-49 years in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, as part of a larger seroepidemiological survey in 1994. Oral fluid was sampled using a simple sponge device that was well accepted by subjects of all ages; venous blood was collected by Vacutainer system. We measured rubella-specific antibodies in serum by the Radial Haemolysis (RH) test, supported by two confirmatory assays, and in oral fluid by IgG antibody-capture radioimmunoassay (GACRIA).

RESULTS

Sensitivity and specificity of oral fluid results compared to serum were 89% and 76%, respectively. Sensitivity declined from 96% in age group 0-19 years to 90% in age group 20-29 and 78% in age group 30-49. Specificity was 86% in 0-9 year olds contrasting with 61% in older groups (10-49 years). The positive predictive value of an oral fluid sample was high in all age groups (range 92-100%), while the negative predictive value declined from > or =80% in those aged <10 years to <10% in those aged > or =30 years. Serum confirmatory tests suggested a proportion of false serum RH negatives, increasing with age, indicating a need to standardize serum as well as oral fluid tests.

CONCLUSION

In the community setting of a developing country, oral fluid surveys could be useful to estimate age-prevalence of rubella immunity and identify rubella-susceptible children for follow-up. Further work is required to simplify assays and sample processing, improve assay sensitivity and estimate assay specificity more precisely, and compare and standardise collection methods suitable for surveillance of a variety of childhood viral infections.

Who mixes with whom? A method to determine the contact patterns of adults that may lead to the spread of airborne infections

Although mixing patterns are thought to be important determinants of the spread of airborne infectious diseases, to our knowledge, there have been no attempts to directly quantify them for humans. We report on a preliminary study to identify such mixing patterns. A sample of 92 adults were asked to detail the individuals with whom they had conversed over the period of one, randomly assigned, day. Sixty-five (71%) completed the questionnaire, providing their age, the age of their contacts and the social context in which the contacts took place. The data were analysed using multilevel modelling. The study identified, and allowed the quantification of, contact patterns within this sample that may be of epidemiological significance. For example, the degree of assortativeness of mixing with respect to age was dependent not only on the age of participants but the number of contacts made. Estimates of the relative magnitude of contact rates between different social settings were made, with implications for outbreak potential. Simple questionnaire modifications are suggested which would yield information on the structure and dynamics of social networks and the intensity of contacts. Surveys of this nature may enable the quantification of who acquires infection from whom and from where.

Simultaneous control of measles and rubella by multidose vaccination schedules

There is currently a preference for using measles-mumps-rubella vaccine to simultaneously control these three diseases. Here an age-specific transmission model is used to investigate the consequences, on cases of measles and congenital rubella syndrome, of switching from a one-dose vaccination with this vaccine to a two-dose vaccination schedule. The model allows for a period of maternally acquired immunity and assumes that infection leads to permanent immunity, while vaccine-induced immunity is allowed to wane. The vaccination coverage at the second dose is expressed in terms of availability for vaccination, which depends on whether the individual received the first dose and the age of the individual. It is found that the optimal age for the first vaccination is not very sensitive to variations in the force of infection and is close to age 1 year for both measles and rubella. However, the optimal age for a second vaccination, offered indiscriminately, depends significantly on the age-specific forces of infection. This emphasizes that decisions about immunization schedules require reliable information about age-specific forces of infection in the community. In some circumstances control may be significantly more effective when the ages for the second dose differ for measles and rubella. It is found that the addition of a catch-up vaccination, offered to previously unvaccinated children at school entry, makes it more feasible to find a common age for the second dose that controls both measles and rubella effectively.

The incidence of rubella virus infections in Switzerland after the introduction of the MMR mass vaccination programme

We have collected data on the incidence of rubella in Switzerland from 1987 to 1992 to help evaluating the impact of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) mass vaccination programme which started in 1985 in this country. We used detailed informations on samples submitted for diagnostic testing in conjunction with anonymous laboratory notifications to the Swiss Federal Office for Public Health, and data from the Swiss sentinel network of general practitioners to find trends in the incidence of rubella after the introduction of mass vaccination. We observed an unabated seasonal oscillation without decreasing trend during the observation period and were unable to detect a shift in the age distribution of cases. An important proportion of laboratory-confirmed rubella occurred in women of childbearing age. Immigrants from regions with low endemicity of rubella were at increased risk of contracting rubella and transmitting it to their offspring. We conclude, that MMR mass vaccination has not interrupted the circulation of rubella virus in Switzerland, and that improvements in the implementation and surveillance of the MMR vaccination campaign are necessary in order to avoid untoward effects of it.

Some bounds on estimates for reproductive ratios derived from the age-specific force of infection

In this paper we shall look at estimation of reproductive ratios for common childhood infections such as chickenpox, measles, mumps, and hepatitis A with and without a vaccination program. The paper starts with a survey of previous work in this area. We suppose that we are given data in the form of an age-related serological profile with a given vaccination program. This is used to estimate the reproductive ratio and evaluate vaccination campaigns. The effect of different mixing patterns, such as homogeneous mixing, assortative mixing, proportional mixing, and symmetric mixing are discussed. R phi denotes the reproductive ratio when a steady-state vaccination campaign phi is used. Assortative mixing maximizes the reproductive ratio R phi. A mixing pattern which minimizes R phi and a lower bound for R phi for the important symmetric mixing case are found. The most usual situation is that we are given the age-serological profile with no vaccination so that we have bounds for the basic reproductive ratio R0. These results are illustrated with an application to vaccination against hepatitis A in Bulgaria. Numerical evaluations of the effect of different elimination vaccination strategies are examined.

Rubella seroepidemiology in a non-immunized population of São Paulo State, Brazil

A rubella serological survey of 476 individuals selected by cluster sampling technique from Caieiras, a small town located in the outskirts of São Paulo city, southeastern Brazil, was carried out over the period November 1990-January 1991. The aim of the study was to characterize rubella epidemiology in a representative non-immunized community in south east Brazil. The survey comprised a seroprevalence study, stratified by age (0-40 years) and a seroconversion study of rubella vaccine in non-infected children below 2 years of age. Mathematical techniques were applied to resultant data sets to determine the age dependent rates of decay in the proportion of individuals with maternally derived antibodies, vaccine seroconversion, and infection of susceptibles, termed the force of infection, and to estimate the average age at first infection.

Modelling toxoplasma incidence from longitudinal seroprevalence in Stockholm, Sweden

Age-stratified data on toxoplasma seroprevalence in pregnant women in Stockholm, Sweden for the years 1969, 1979 and 1987 provide the basis for an analysis of temporal patterns of Toxoplasma gondii infection, and estimation of the risk of maternal toxoplasmosis, in this population. A catalytic infection model, in which the rate or force of infection is assumed to be a function of time (and not, as is more usual, age), was employed to describe the observed changes in levels of toxoplasma seropositivity. A range of simple incidence functions (up to 3 parameters) were fitted using a method of maximum likelihood. The data were significantly better described by a linear or an exponential decay in the rate of infection through time compared with a constant level. More complex incidence functions gave no better data description. Thus, whilst there is strong evidence for declining incidence in Stockholm over the past 4-5 decades, the data do not allow discrimination between different possibilities for the nature of this decline. Based on these modelling results, best estimates of the force of infection in 1987 acting on susceptible women are within the range 0 to 0.0045/susceptible/year (95% confidence limits), yielding a possible risk of maternal toxoplasmosis of between 0 and 2.7 cases/1000 pregnancies. These values are shown to be significantly lower than estimates based upon an assumption of temporal stability in toxoplasma incidence, which may be of practical significance to public health policy.

Antibody prevalence against rubella among hospital personnel in Nigeria: implications for health care system and immunisation policy

Among 385 sera from Nigerian hospital personnel aged 15-39 years, 289 (75%) had an antibody titer corresponding to immunity against rubella, compared with 346 (90%) of the sera from Swedish women of the same age group. The frequency of high immune level against rubella did not change with age among Nigerians compared with a decrease in immunity with increasing age in the Swedish individuals. This probably is due to the differences between the dynamics of the development of natural immunity and immunity acquired through vaccination. In Nigeria, socio-economic factors were related with the degree of immune responses while sex was not. The results highlight the importance of immunization among hospital personnel and eventual vaccination of the whole population in Nigeria and the continuous surveillance of rubella immunity and periodic re-evaluation of immunization policies.

Modelling forces of infection for measles, mumps and rubella

Serological data from 8870 persons collected prior to the introduction of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine in the UK are used to describe the rate at which individuals acquire infection by these diseases at different ages. A parsimonious model is developed and fitted under various interpretations of the data, particularly concerning the probability of lifelong susceptibility to infection. It is shown that, while the force of infection curves are relatively robust in their general features, they exhibit considerable sensitivity in matters of important detail. This is true in particular of the values taken by the force of infection in older age groups. As a result, estimates of the average age at infection are highly sensitive to these interpretations. This in turn may limit the accuracy of predictions from mathematical models based on these parameters, in particular regarding the level of immunization required for eradication of disease.

Serological study of the epidemiology of mumps virus infection in north-west England

Serum samples from individuals of a wide age range, collected in northwest England in 1984 and 1986, provide the basis for an analysis of the epidemiology of mumps virus infection. A radial haemolysis test yielding quantitative antibody measurements was used to screen samples for mumps-specific IgG. Analyses of resultant age-seroprevalence profiles, using statistical models, revealed an age-related pattern in the rate of infection per susceptible similar to that observed for other childhood infections. This rate, or force of infection, was low in young children, high in older children, and low in adults. In addition, the serological surveys provide evidence for time-dependent changes (both epidemic and longer-term) in the rate of mumps virus transmission. The longer-term changes, reflected in the pattern of the age-acquisition of specific antibodies, are supported by evidence from case notification data. The implications of temporal changes in incidence to the interpretation and design of serological surveys are considered.

Seroepidemiological study of the transmission of the mumps virus in St. Lucia, West Indies

A seroepidemiological study of the prevalence of mumps virus specific antibodies reveals a pattern of endemic persistence on the island of St Lucia in the West Indies. In the unvaccinated population the proportion seropositive rose rapidly in the child age classes to attain a stable plateau close to unity in value in the teenage and adult age groups. The average age at infection was estimated to be between 3 and 4 years of age and the average duration of detectable levels of maternally derived antibodies was approximately 3 months. Analyses based on mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of the virus suggest that in excess of 75% of each cohort of 1- to 2-year-old children must be effectively immunized to eliminate mumps virus transmission. A mumps radial haemolysis test, developed for quantitative measurements of antibody, is discussed.

Surveillance of antibody to measles, mumps, and rubella by age

Before the introduction of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine a survey was carried out to measure antibody prevalence to the three viruses by age. A total of 8716 samples of serum collected by five public health laboratories in different parts of England during 1986-7 were tested. Despite the current measles vaccination programme 60% of children aged 1-2 years did not have measles antibody and over 80% did not have antibodies to mumps and rubella. In the 3-4 year age group 17% of the children were susceptible to measles, 55% to mumps, and 73% to rubella. The results suggest that vaccinating children early in the second year of life will be necessary to eliminate the three diseases. The survey provides baseline data for continuing surveillance of the immediate and long term effects of the new vaccination strategy.

The use of mathematical models in the epidemiological study of infectious diseases and in the design of mass immunization programmes

Community-based immunization is the primary method available today by which to reduce the scale of morbidity, and, in certain countries, mortality, associated with the most common childhood viral and bacterial infections. The decline in the incidences of a number of important vaccine preventable infections, such as polio, diphtheria and measles, in many countries, and the worldwide eradication of the smallpox virus, is testimony to the effectiveness of this method of control.

Predicting the dynamic effects of rubella vaccination programmes

In the Netherlands, prepubertal girls have been vaccinated against rubella since 1974 (the UK strategy). Recently the Dutch Health Council advocated the introduction of an elimination strategy: vaccination of 1- and 9-year-old children. Dynamic effects of both strategies are studied using deterministic and stochastic models. Estimates of several epidemiological parameters are given. All computations and simulations were performed using as much field data as possible. Under the old strategy a new equilibrium is expected around the years 1995 to 2000; the new strategy is estimated to eliminate rubella (CRS) in large parts of the population 3 to 5 years after its initiation. Possible consequences of the new strategy on a cluster of people who refuse vaccination are investigated.

The epidemiology of mumps in the UK: a preliminary study of virus transmission, herd immunity and the potential impact of immunization

Mathematical models and statistical analyses of epidemiological data are employed to assess the potential impact of mass vaccination on the incidences of cases of mumps infection and cases of mumps related complications. The analyses reveal that in the United Kingdom the average age at infection with the mumps virus is currently between 6-7 years and that the inter-epidemic period of the infection is approximately 3 years. The critical level of vaccine uptake to eliminate mumps virus transmission is predicted to be approximately 85% of each cohort of boys and girls by the age of 2 years. Analyses of published data show that the risk of complication arising from mumps infection is markedly age- and sex-related. Model predictions suggest that the incidence of orchitis will be increased, over the level pertaining prior to mass vaccination, by levels of vaccine uptake (by 2 years of age) that are less than 70% of each yearly cohort of boys and girls. Moderate (over 60%) to high (75%) levels of vaccine uptake, however, are predicted to reduce the overall incidence of cases of mumps related complications (especially those with CNS involvement).

Quantitative investigations of different vaccination policies for the control of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in the United Kingdom

The paper examines predictions of the impact of various one-, two- and three-stage vaccination policies on the incidence of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in the United Kingdom with the aid of a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of rubella virus. Parameter estimates for the model are derived from either serological data or case notifications, and special attention is given to the significance of age-related changes in the rate of exposure to rubella infection and heterogeneous mixing between age groups. Where possible, model predictions are compared with observed epidemiological trends. The principal conclusion of the analyses is that benefit is to be gained in the UK, both in the short and long term, by the introduction of a multiple-stage vaccination policy involving high levels of vaccination coverage of young male and female children (at around two years of age) and teenage girls (between the ages of 10-15 years), plus continued surveillance and vaccination of adult women in the child-bearing age classes. Model predictions suggest that to reduce the incidence of CRS in future years, below the level generated by a continuation of the current UK policy (the vaccination of teenage girls), would require high rates of vaccination (greater than 60%) of both boys and girls at around two years of age. Numerical studies also suggest that uniform vaccination coverage levels of greater than 80-85% of young male and female children could, in the long term (40 years or more), eradicate rubella virus from the population. The robustness of these conclusions with respect to the accuracy of parameter estimates and various assumptions concerning the pattern of age-related change in exposure to infections and 'who acquires infection from whom' is discussed.