Distribution of grey wolves Canis lupus lupus in the Nepalese Himalaya: implications for conservation management

Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Wooly Wolf (Canis lupus chanco)

The Central Asian wolves form a cohort within the wolf-dog clade known as the wooly wolf (Canis lupus chanco). These wolves are poorly studied and their current extent and distribution remain unknown. Apex predators already existing at higher elevations like wooly wolves can be severely affected by climate change because of the absence of suitable refuge. Concomitantly, in the era of Anthropocene, the change in land use land cover (LULC) is rapidly increasing. Even the most adaptable species occurring in human-dominated landscapes may fail to survive under the combined impact of both climate change and human pressure. We collected 3,776 presence locations of the wooly wolf across its range from published literature and compiled 39 predictor variables for species distribution modeling, which included anthropogenic factors, climatic, vegetation, and topographic features. We predicted the change in their distribution under different anthropogenic factors, climate change, and land-use land-cover change scenarios. Wolf showed affinity toward areas with low to moderately warm temperatures and higher precipitations. It showed negative relationships with forests and farmlands. Our future projections showed an expansion of wolf distribution and habitat suitability under the combined effects of future climate and LULC change. Myanmar and Russia had the introduction of high and medium suitability areas for the wooly wolf in future scenarios. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan showed the consistent loss in high suitability areas while Mongolia and Bhutan had the largest gain in high suitability areas. The study holds great significance for the protection and management of this species and also provides opportunities to explore the impact on associated species.

No silver bullet? Snow leopard prey selection in Mt. Kangchenjunga, Nepal

In this study, we investigated the impact of domestic and wild prey availability on snow leopard prey preference in the Kangchenjunga Conservation Area of eastern Nepal-a region where small domestic livestock are absent and small wild ungulate prey are present. We took a comprehensive approach that combined fecal genetic sampling, macro- and microscopic analyses of snow leopard diets, and direct observation of blue sheep and livestock in the KCA. Out of the collected 88 putative snow leopard scat samples from 140 transects (290 km) in 27 (4 × 4 km2) sampling grid cells, 73 (83%) were confirmed to be from snow leopard. The genetic analysis accounted for 19 individual snow leopards (10 males and 9 females), with a mean population size estimate of 24 (95% CI: 19-29) and an average density of 3.9 snow leopards/100 km2 within 609 km2. The total available prey biomass of blue sheep and yak was estimated at 355,236 kg (505 kg yak/km2 and 78 kg blue sheep/km2). From the available prey biomass, we estimated snow leopards consumed 7% annually, which comprised wild prey (49%), domestic livestock (45%), and 6% unidentified items. The estimated 47,736 kg blue sheep biomass gives a snow leopard-to-blue sheep ratio of 1:59 on a weight basis. The high preference of snow leopard to domestic livestock appears to be influenced by a much smaller available biomass of wild prey than in other regions of Nepal (e.g., 78 kg/km2 in the KCA compared with a range of 200-300 kg/km2 in other regions of Nepal). Along with livestock insurance scheme improvement, there needs to be a focus on improved livestock guarding, predator-proof corrals as well as engaging and educating local people to be citizen scientists on the importance of snow leopard conservation, involving them in long-term monitoring programs and promotion of ecotourism.

On the occurrence of the Himalayan Wolf Canis lupus, L. 1758 (Mammalia: Carnivora: Canidae) in the Gaurishankar Conservation Area, Nepal; its existence confirmed through sign and visual evidence in Rolwaling Valley

The Himalayan Wolf Canis lupus L., a top predator of the Third Pole, is proposed to be of a distinct wolf lineage (C. himalayensis) relative to the Holarctic Grey Wolf as described by mtDNA analyses. A biodiversity survey organized by the Gaurishankar Conservation Area Project (GCAP) has captured images of wolves in three different regions, and the study team has observed wolf scats in five additional regions above the tree line in Rolwaling Valley. Further, interviews with local herders provided evidence of wolf depredation of livestock in the area. The Rolwaling Valley in the Gaurishankar Conservation Area was the study area which was divided into 12, 4 x 4 km (16 km2) grid cells, each supplied with one camera trap operated continuously from June to November 2019 (only 6 out of 12 cameras functioned for the duration of our study). Wolf detections were recorded by camera traps from Yalung Pass (4,956 m), Tsho-Rolpa glacial Lake (4,536 m) and the Dudhkunda ridgeline (5,091 m). The photo capture rate index (PCRI) for wolves was 0.71. Our study reports the first photographic evidence of the Himalayan Wolf in the Rolwaling Valley.

Habitat suitability and movement corridors of grey wolf (Canis lupus) in Northern Pakistan

Habitat suitability models are useful to understand species distribution and to guide management and conservation strategies. The grey wolf (Canis lupus) has been extirpated from most of its historic range in Pakistan primarily due to its impact on livestock and livelihoods. We used non-invasive survey data from camera traps and genetic sampling to develop a habitat suitability model for C. lupus in northern Pakistan and to explore the extent of connectivity among populations. We detected suitable habitat of grey wolf using a maximum entropy approach (Maxent ver. 3.4.0) and identified suitable movement corridors using the Circuitscape 4.0 tool. Our model showed high levels of predictive performances, as seen from the values of area under curve (0.971±0.002) and true skill statistics (0.886±0.021). The main predictors for habitat suitability for C. lupus were distances to road, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and distance to river. The model predicted ca. 23,129 km2 of suitable areas for wolf in Pakistan, with much of suitable habitat in remote and inaccessible areas that appeared to be well connected through vulnerable movement corridors. These movement corridors suggest that potentially the wolf range can expand in Pakistan's Northern Areas. However, managing protected areas with stringent restrictions is challenging in northern Pakistan, in part due to heavy dependence of people on natural resources. The habitat suitability map provided by this study can inform future management strategies by helping authorities to identify key conservation areas.

Conservation implications for the Himalayan wolf Canis (lupus) himalayensis based on observations of packs and home sites in Nepal

We provide insights into pack composition and den site parameters of the Himalayan wolf Canis (lupus) himalayensis based on observations of free-ranging wolves in three study areas in Nepal. We combine this with a social survey of the local Buddhist communities regarding human–carnivore conflict, to draw inferences for conservation practice in the Nepalese Himalayas. We recorded eight wolf packs (with an average composition of two adults and three pups), and found five home sites in high-altitude shrubland patches within alpine grasslands at 4,270–4,940 m altitude. There was a spatial–temporal overlap of wolf home sites and livestock herding during spring and summer, which facilitated human–wolf conflict. The litters of three out of five wolf packs found in Dolpa during 2016 were killed by local people in the same year. In Nepal compensation is offered for depredation by snow leopards Panthera uncia, with associated lowering of negative attitudes, but not for depredation by wolves. We recommend the implementation of financial and educational conservation schemes for all conflict-causing carnivores across the Himalayan regions of Nepal.