Spatial risk prediction and mapping of Schistosoma mansoni infections among schoolchildren living in western Côte d'Ivoire

Enabling targeted mass drug administration for schistosomiasis in north-western Tanzania: Exploring the use of geostatistical modeling to inform planning at sub-district level

INTRODUCTION

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease in Tanzania affecting over 50% of the population. Current control strategies involve mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns at the district level, which have led to problems of over- and under-treatment in different areas. WHO guidelines have called for more targeted MDA to circumvent these problems, however a scarcity of prevalence data inhibits decision makers from prioritizing sub-district areas for MDA. This study demonstrated how geostatistics can be used to inform planning for targeted MDA.

METHODS

Geostatistical sub-district (ward-level) prevalence estimates were generated through combining a zero-inflated poisson model and kriging approach (regression kriging). To make predictions, the model used prevalence survey data collected in 2021 of 17,400 school children in six regions of Tanzania, along with several open source ecological and socio-demographic variables with known associations with schistosomiasis.

RESULTS

The model results show that regression kriging can be used to effectively predict the ward level parasite prevalence of the two species of Schistosoma endemic to the study area. Kriging was found to further improve the regression model fit, with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.51 and 0.32 for intestinal and urogenital schistosomiasis, respectively. Targeted treatment based on model predictions would represent a shift in treatment away from 193 wards estimated to be over-treated to 149 wards that would have been omitted from the district level MDA.

CONCLUSIONS

Geostatistical models can help to support NTD program efficiency and reduce disease transmission by facilitating WHO recommended targeted MDA treatment through provision of prevalence estimates where data is scarce.

Prevalence and risk factors of schistosomiasis and hookworm infection in seasonal transmission settings in northern Côte d'Ivoire: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis and hookworm infection remain public health problems in large parts of sub-Saharan Africa. The epidemiology of schistosomiasis and hookworm was studied in seasonal transmission settings in the northern part of Côte d'Ivoire.

METHODOLOGY

In August 2018, a cross-sectional study was conducted. Urine and stool samples were collected from 742 individuals aged 6-96 years in 16 localities from four departments in northern Côte d'Ivoire. Urine samples were examined by a filtration method for quantification of Schistosoma haematobium eggs. Stool samples were subjected to duplicate Kato-Katz thick smears and eggs of Schistosoma mansoni and soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) were counted. Additionally, a questionnaire was administered to determine demographic characteristics and to identify risk factors of schistosomiasis and STHs. Malacologic surveys were carried out at water points that are contacted by humans and animals.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The prevalence of schistosomiasis was very low. Only two cases of S. mansoni were found (0.3%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-1.0%). The distribution of S. haematobium was focal, with cases found only in two departments; Ferkessédougou (5.4%, 95% CI: 2.5-9.9%) and Ouangolodougou (2.7%, 95% CI: 0.9-6.3%). Hookworm was the only STH species observed with a prevalence of 1.5% (95% CI: 0.8-2.8%). A higher risk of S. haematobium infection was observed in males compared to females, but the difference was not statistically significant (2.3% versus 1.3%, odds ratio [OR]: 1.5, 95% CI: 0.8-2.7). Participants aged 16-20 years showed the highest prevalence of S. haematobium. A total of 111 human- and animal-water contact points were identified at 47 water sources. Three potential intermediate host snails of schistosomes were collected; namely, Bulinus forskalii (n = 761), Bulinus truncatus (n = 205), and Biomphalaria pfeifferi (n = 1). Yet, only one specimen of Bu. truncatus was found to be shedding schistosome cercariae.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study confirms very low transmission of schistosomiasis and hookworm in northern Côte d'Ivoire. The establishment and rigorous implementation of integrated surveillance-response systems could lead to the elimination of schistosomiasis and hookworm in this part of Côte d'Ivoire.

Temporal modelling of Lymnaea natalensis (Krauss, 1848) in tropical aquatic habitats

Lymnaea natalensis is the only snail intermediate host of Fasciola gigantica, the causative agent of fascioliasis, in Nigeria. The species also serves as intermediate host for many other African trematode species of medical and veterinary importance, and it is found throughout the country. However, there is no detailed information on the factors that influence its distribution and seasonal abundance in the tropical aquatic habitats in Nigeria. This study used the geographic information system and remotely sensed data to develop models for predicting the distribution of L. natalensis in South-Western Nigeria. Both land surface temperature (LST) and normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) were extracted from Landsat satellite imagery; other variables (slope and elevation) were extracted from a digital elevation model (DEM) while rainfall data were retrieved from the European Meteorology Research Programme (EMRP). These environmental variables were integrated into a geographic information system (GIS) to predict suitable habitats of L. natalensis using exploratory regression. A total of 1410 L. natalensis snails were collected vis-à-vis 22 sampling sites. Built-up areas recorded more L. natalensis compared with farmlands. There was no significant difference in the abundance of snails with season (p  0.05). The regression models showed that rainfall, NDVI, and slope were predictors of L. natalensis distribution. The habitats suitable for L. natalensis were central areas, while areas to the north and south were not suitable for L. natalensis.Contribution: The predictive risk models of L. natalensis in the study will be useful in mapping other areas where the snail sampling could not be conducted.

Population genetic structure of Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma haematobium × Schistosoma bovis hybrids among school-aged children in Côte d'Ivoire

While population genetics of Schistosoma haematobium have been investigated in West Africa, only scant data are available from Côte d’Ivoire. The purpose of this study was to analyze both genetic variability and genetic structure among S. haematobium populations and to quantify the frequency of S. haematobium × S. bovis hybrids in school-aged children in different parts of Côte d’Ivoire. Urine samples were subjected to a filtration method and examined microscopically for Schistosoma eggs in four sites in the western and southern parts of Côte d’Ivoire. A total of 2692 miracidia were collected individually and stored on Whatman^® FTA cards. Of these, 2561 miracidia were successfully genotyped for species and hybrid identification using rapid diagnostic multiplex mitochondrial cox1 PCR and PCR Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) analysis of the nuclear ITS2 region. From 2164 miracidia, 1966 (90.9%) were successfully genotyped using at least 10 nuclear microsatellite loci to investigate genetic diversity and population structure. Significant differences were found between sites in all genetic diversity indices and genotypic differentiation was observed between the site in the West and the three sites in the East. Analysis at the infrapopulation level revealed clustering of parasite genotypes within individual children, particularly in Duekoué (West) and Sikensi (East). Of the six possible cox1-ITS2 genetic profiles obtained from miracidia, S. bovis cox1 × S. haematobium ITS2 (42.0%) was the most commonly observed in the populations. We identified only 15 miracidia (0.7%) with an S. bovis cox1 × S. bovis ITS2 genotype. Our study provides new insights into the population genetics of S. haematobium and S. haematobium × S. bovis hybrids in humans in Côte d’Ivoire and we advocate for researching hybrid schistosomes in animals such as rodents and cattle in Côte d’Ivoire.

Models for predicting bulinids species habitats in southwestern Nigeria

Background

Schistosomiasis prevalence is high in southwestern Nigeria and planorbids of the genus Bulinus had been implicated in the transmission of the disease in the area. The knowledge of species distribution in relation to environmental variables will be auspicious in planning control strategies.

Methods

Satellite imagery and geographic information system (GIS) were used to develop models for predicting the habitats suitable for bulinid species. Monthly snail sample collection was done in twenty-three randomly selected water contact sites using the standard method for a period of two years. Remotely sensed variables such as Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were extracted from Landsat TM, ETM⁺; Slope and Elevation were obtained from digital elevation model (DEM) while Rainfall was retrieved from European Meteorology Research Program. These environmental factors and snail species were integrated into QGIS to predict the potential habitats of different bulinid species using an exploratory regression model.

Results

The following environmental variables: flat-moderate slope (0.01–15.83), LST (21.1 °C-23.4 °C), NDVI (0.19–0.52), rainfall (> 1569.34 mm) and elevation (1–278 m) contributed to the model used in predicting habitat suitable for bulinids snail intermediate hosts. Exploratory regression models showed that LST, NDVI and slope were predictors of Bulinus globosus and Bulinus jousseaumei; elevation, LST, rainfall and slope were predictors of Bulinus camerunensis; rainfall, NDVI and slope were predictors of B. senegalensis while NDVI and slope were predictors of Bulinus forskalii in the area. Bulinids in the forskalii group showed clustering in middle belt and south. The predictive risk map of B. jousseaumei was similar to the pattern described for B. globosus, but with a high R-square value of 81%.

Conclusion

The predictive risk models of bulinid species in this study provided a robust output for the study area which could be used as base-line for other areas in that ecological zone. It will be useful in appropriate allocation of scarces resources in the control of schistosomiasis in that environment.

Exposure, hazard, and vulnerability all contribute to Schistosoma haematobium re-infection in northern Senegal

Background

Infectious disease risk is driven by three interrelated components: exposure, hazard, and vulnerability. For schistosomiasis, exposure occurs through contact with water, which is often tied to daily activities. Water contact, however, does not imply risk unless the environmental hazard of snails and parasites is also present in the water. By increasing reliance on hazardous activities and environments, socio-economic vulnerability can hinder reductions in exposure to a hazard. We aimed to quantify the contributions of exposure, hazard, and vulnerability to the presence and intensity of Schistosoma haematobium re-infection.

Methodology/Principal findings

In 13 villages along the Senegal River, we collected parasitological data from 821 school-aged children, survey data from 411 households where those children resided, and ecological data from all 24 village water access sites. We fit mixed-effects logistic and negative binomial regressions with indices of exposure, hazard, and vulnerability as explanatory variables of Schistosoma haematobium presence and intensity, respectively, controlling for demographic variables. Using multi-model inference to calculate the relative importance of each component of risk, we found that hazard (Ʃw_{i =} 0.95) was the most important component of S. haematobium presence, followed by vulnerability (Ʃw_i = 0.91). Exposure (Ʃw_i = 1.00) was the most important component of S. haematobium intensity, followed by hazard (Ʃw_i = 0.77). Model averaging quantified associations between each infection outcome and indices of exposure, hazard, and vulnerability, revealing a positive association between hazard and infection presence (OR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.12, 1.97), and a positive association between exposure and infection intensity (RR 2.59–3.86, depending on the category; all 95% CIs above 1)

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings underscore the linkages between social (exposure and vulnerability) and environmental (hazard) processes in the acquisition and accumulation of S. haematobium infection. This approach highlights the importance of implementing both social and environmental interventions to complement mass drug administration.

While the impacts of natural hazards tend to be described in terms of social determinants such as exposure and vulnerability, the risk for infectious disease is often expressed in terms of environmental determinants without fully considering the socio-ecological processes that put people in contact with infective agents of disease. In the case of schistosomiasis, risk is determined by human interactions with freshwater environments where schistosome parasites circulate between people and aquatic snails. In this study, we quantified the relative contributions of exposure, hazard, and vulnerability to schistosome re-infection among schoolchildren in an endemic region of northern Senegal. We find that hazard and vulnerability influence whether a child becomes infected, while exposure and hazard influence the burden of worms once infection is acquired. Increasing numbers of worms is known to be positively associated with increasing severity of disease. Our findings underscore the importance of evaluating social and environmental determinants of disease simultaneously; omitting measures of exposure, hazard or vulnerability may limit our understanding of risk.

Characteristics of persistent hotspots of Schistosoma mansoni in western Côte d'Ivoire

BACKGROUND

Preventive chemotherapy with praziquantel is the cornerstone of schistosomiasis control. However, in some social-ecological settings, the prevalence and/or intensity of Schistosoma infection does not lower meaningfully despite multiple rounds of preventive chemotherapy, a phenomenon termed persistent hotspot (PHS). We assessed the characteristics of PHS in a Schistosoma mansoni-endemic area of Côte d'Ivoire.

METHODS

In October 2016, a cross-sectional survey was conducted in 14 schools in the western part of Côte d'Ivoire, one year after multiple rounds of preventive chemotherapy. In each school, 50 children aged 9-12 years provided two stool samples and one urine sample. Stool samples were subjected to triplicate Kato-Katz thick smears for S. mansoni diagnosis. Urine samples were examined by a filtration method for S. haematobium eggs. PHS was defined as failure to achieve a reduction in the prevalence of S. mansoni infection of at least 35% and/or a reduction of infection intensity of at least 50%. Six schools underwent more detailed investigations, including a questionnaire survey for demographic characteristics and a malacological survey.

RESULTS

In the six schools subjected to detailed investigations, the overall prevalence of S. mansoni and S. haematobium was 9.5% and 2.6%, respectively. Four schools were classified as PHS. The S. mansoni prevalence in the four PHS was 10.9% compared to 6.6% in the remaining two schools. The S. mansoni infection intensity, expressed as arithmetic mean eggs per gram of stool (EPG) among infected children, was 123.8 EPG in PHS and 18.7 EPG in the other two schools. Children bathing in open freshwater bodies were at higher odds of S. mansoni infection (odds ratio: 4.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.6-12.6). A total of 76 human-water contact sites (53 in PHS and 23 in the other schools) were examined and 688 snails were collected, including potential intermediate host snails of Schistosoma (Biomphalaria pfeifferi, Bulinus forskalii, Bu. globosus and Bu. truncatus).

CONCLUSION

Children in PHS schools bathed more frequently in open freshwater bodies, and hence, they are more exposed to Schistosoma transmission. Our findings call for an integrated control approach, complementing preventive chemotherapy with other interventions, particularly in PHS settings.

Direct onshore wind predicts daily swimmer's itch (avian schistosome) incidence at a Michigan beach

Swimmer's itch (SI) is a painful rash caused by skin penetration by free-swimming infectious cercariae of avian schistosomes, snail-borne helminth parasites related to the causative agents of human schistosomiasis. The goal of this study was to determine if commonly collected environmental data could be used to predict daily fluctuations in SI incidence at an inland beach in northwestern Michigan. Lifeguards collected daily data over four summers, including the number of self-reported SI cases, total swimmers, water temperature, wind speed and wind direction. Mixed-effects binomial regression revealed that wind direction, wind speed and time of day were the best predictors of daily SI risk. Swimmers entering the water in the morning or on days with direct onshore wind perpendicular to the shoreline had the greatest SI risk. However, there was a negative effect of wind speed after accounting for direction, where SI risk was greatest on days with a gentle breeze originating directly offshore. These results suggest that at this beach, direct onshore winds generate a surface-water current that causes SI cercariae to aggregate in the shallow waters used by swimmers. Data are needed from additional sites to confirm whether the onshore wind is a generally important driver of SI incidence.

High prevalence of Schistosoma haematobium × Schistosoma bovis hybrids in schoolchildren in Côte d'Ivoire

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease, though it is highly prevalent in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. While Schistosoma haematobium-bovis hybrids have been reported in West Africa, no data about Schistosoma hybrids in humans are available from Côte d'Ivoire. This study aimed to identify and quantify S. haematobium-bovis hybrids among schoolchildren in four localities of Côte d'Ivoire. Urine samples were collected and examined by filtration to detect Schistosoma eggs. Eggs were hatched and 503 miracidia were individually collected and stored on Whatman® FTA cards for molecular analysis. Individual miracidia were molecularly characterized by analysis of mitochondrial cox1 and nuclear internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS 2) DNA regions. A mitochondrial cox1-based diagnostic polymerase chain reaction was performed on 459 miracidia, with 239 (52.1%) exhibiting the typical band for S. haematobium and 220 (47.9%) the S. bovis band. The cox1 and ITS 2 amplicons were Sanger sequenced from 40 randomly selected miracidia to confirm species and hybrids status. Among the 33 cox1 sequences analysed, we identified 15 S. haematobium sequences (45.5%) belonging to seven haplotypes and 18 S. bovis sequences (54.5%) belonging to 12 haplotypes. Of 40 ITS 2 sequences analysed, 31 (77.5%) were assigned to pure S. haematobium, four (10.0%) to pure S. bovis and five (12.5%) to S. haematobium-bovis hybrids. Our findings suggest that S. haematobium-bovis hybrids are common in Côte d'Ivoire. Hence, intense prospection of domestic and wild animals is warranted to determine whether zoonotic transmission occurs.

Mapping the baseline prevalence of lymphatic filariasis across Nigeria

Introduction

The baseline endemicity profile of lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a key benchmark for planning control programmes, monitoring their impact on transmission and assessing the feasibility of achieving elimination. Presented in this work is the modelled serological and parasitological prevalence of LF prior to the scale-up of mass drug administration (MDA) in Nigeria using a machine learning based approach.

Methods

LF prevalence data generated by the Nigeria Lymphatic Filariasis Control Programme during country-wide mapping surveys conducted between 2000 and 2013 were used to build the models. The dataset comprised of 1103 community-level surveys based on the detection of filarial antigenemia using rapid immunochromatographic card tests (ICT) and 184 prevalence surveys testing for the presence of microfilaria (Mf) in blood. Using a suite of climate and environmental continuous gridded variables and compiled site-level prevalence data, a quantile regression forest (QRF) model was fitted for both antigenemia and microfilaraemia LF prevalence. Model predictions were projected across a continuous 5 × 5 km gridded map of Nigeria. The number of individuals potentially infected by LF prior to MDA interventions was subsequently estimated.

Results

Maps presented predict a heterogeneous distribution of LF antigenemia and microfilaraemia in Nigeria. The North-Central, North-West, and South-East regions displayed the highest predicted LF seroprevalence, whereas predicted Mf prevalence was highest in the southern regions. Overall, 8.7 million and 3.3 million infections were predicted for ICT and Mf, respectively.

Conclusions

QRF is a machine learning-based algorithm capable of handling high-dimensional data and fitting complex relationships between response and predictor variables. Our models provide a benchmark through which the progress of ongoing LF control efforts can be monitored.

Sensitivity of the Point-of-Care Circulating Cathodic Antigen Urine Cassette Test for Diagnosis of Schistosoma mansoni in Low-Endemicity Settings in Côte d'Ivoire

The sensitivity of a point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (POC-CCA) urine cassette test for diagnosis of Schistosoma mansoni in low-endemicity settings is poorly understood. We conducted a cross-sectional survey in 14 villages in western Côte d'Ivoire and diagnosed children aged 9-12 years for schistosomiasis. Two stool samples were subjected to triplicate Kato-Katz thick smears each for diagnosis of S. mansoni, whereas a single urine sample was examined by POC-CCA for S. mansoni, filtration for Schistosoma haematobium, and reagent strip for microhematuria. According to the Kato-Katz technique, we found 45 out of 681 children positive for S. mansoni (6.6%) with a mean intensity among infected children of 72.2 eggs per gram of stool. Point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen revealed a prevalence of S. mansoni of 33.0% when trace results were considered positive and 12.5% when trace results were considered negative. Eggs of S. haematobium were found in eight participants (1.2%), whereas the prevalence of microhematuria was 13.5%. A single POC-CCA urine cassette test revealed a several-fold higher prevalence of S. mansoni than multiple Kato-Katz thick smears in this low-endemicity area. Our findings have important ramifications for choosing an appropriate diagnostic tool in low-endemic areas that might be targeted for elimination.

Prevalence and Risk Factors for Schistosomiasis among Schoolchildren in two Settings of Côte d'Ivoire

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease affecting more than 250 million people, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa. In Côte d’Ivoire both Schistosoma haematobium (causing urogenital schistosomiasis) and Schistosoma mansoni (causing intestinal schistosomiasis) co-exist. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of S. haematobium and S. mansoni and to identify risk factors among schoolchildren in the western and southern parts of Côte d’Ivoire. From January to April 2018, a cross-sectional study was carried out including 1187 schoolchildren aged 5–14 years. Urine samples were examined by a filtration method to identify and count S. haematobium eggs, while stool samples were subjected to duplicate Kato-Katz thick smears to quantify eggs of S.mansoni and soil-transmitted helminths. Data on sociodemographic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors were obtained using a pretested questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression was employed to test for associations between variables. We found a prevalence of S. haematobium of 14.0% (166 of 1187 schoolchildren infected) and a prevalence of S. mansoni of 6.1% (66 of 1089 schoolchildren infected). In the southern part of Côte d’Ivoire, the prevalence of S. haematobium was 16.1% with a particularly high prevalence observed in Sikensi (35.6%), while S. mansoni was most prevalent in Agboville (11.2%). Swimming in open freshwater bodies was the main risk factor for S. haematobium infection (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 127.0, 95% confidence interval (CI): 25.0–634.0, p < 0.001). Fishing and washing clothes in open freshwater bodies were positively associated with S. haematobium and S. mansoni infection, respectively. Preventive chemotherapy using praziquantel should be combined with setting-specific information, education, and communication strategies in order to change children’s behavior, thus avoiding contact with unprotected open freshwater.

Strongyloides stercoralis: Spatial distribution of a highly prevalent and ubiquitous soil-transmitted helminth in Cambodia

Background

Strongyloides stercoralis is a neglected soil-transmitted helminth that occurs worldwide, though it is particularly endemic in tropical and subtropical areas. It can cause long-lasting and potentially fatal infections due to its ability to replicate within its host. S. stercoralis causes gastrointestinal and dermatological morbidity. The objective of this study was to assess the S. stercoralis infection risk and, using geostatistical models, to predict its geographical distribution in Cambodia.

Methodology / Principal findings

A nation-wide, community-based parasitological survey was conducted among the Cambodian population, aged 6 years and older. S. stercoralis was diagnosed using a serological diagnostic test that detects IgG antibodies in urine. Data on demography, hygiene and knowledge about helminth infection were collected. S. stercoralis prevalence among 7,246 participants with a complete data record was 30.5%, ranging from 10.9% to 48.2% across provinces. The parasite was ubiquitous in Cambodia; only five south-eastern provinces had prevalence rates below 20%. Infection risk increased with age for both men and women, although girls under the age of 13 and women aged 50 years and over had lower odds of infection than their male counterparts. Open defecation was associated with higher odds of infection, while having some knowledge of the health problems caused by worms was a protective factor. Infection risk was positively associated with nighttime maximum temperature, minimum rainfall, and distance to water; it was negatively associated with land occupied by rice fields.

Conclusions / Significance

S. stercoralis infection is rampant in Cambodia. Control programs delivering ivermectin are needed to manage the parasite. However, the high cost of this drug in Cambodia currently precludes the implementation of control initiatives. Donations, subsidies or affordable generics are needed so that S. stercoralis, which infects almost a third of the Cambodian population, can be addressed through an adequate control program.

The threadworm, Strongyloides stercoralis, is a highly neglected worm infection, transmitted through infective larvae in the soil. Threadworms occur worldwide, particularly in tropical climates. It may cause long-lasting and potentially fatal infections due to the parasite’s ability to replicate within its host. This study aimed to assess the risk of threadworm infection at national level in Cambodia. We conducted a nation-wide, community-based parasitological survey of the Cambodian population, aged 6 years and over. The threadworm was diagnosed using a serological diagnostic test that detects antibodies in urine. Data on demography, hygiene and knowledge about helminth infection were collected. The purpose of this study was to predict the risk of S. stercoralis infection in unsurveyed locations, assess risk factors for infection, and map its geographical distribution in Cambodia. About one third (30.5%) of the enrolled study participants (n = 7,246) were infected with threadworms. At provincial level, the lowest and highest infection rates were 10.9% and 48.2%, respectively. Prevalence rates below 20% were found in just five south-eastern provinces. The risk of a threadworm infection increased with age for both men and women. Open defecation was associated with higher risk of infection, while having some knowledge of the health problems caused by worms was a protective factor. Infection risk was positively associated with environmental factors, such as nighttime maximum temperature, minimum rainfall, and distance to water; it was negatively associated with land occupied by rice fields. Threadworm infection is highly prevalent in Cambodia and adequate control measures, including access to treatment, are warranted to address the burden of this Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) in Cambodia.

Modeling Schistosoma japonicum Infection under Pure Specification Bias: Impact of Environmental Drivers of Infection

Uncertainties in spatial modeling studies of schistosomiasis (SCH) are relevant for the reliable identification of at-risk populations. Ecological fallacy occurs when ecological or group-level analyses, such as spatial aggregations at a specific administrative level, are carried out for an individual-level inference. This could lead to the unreliable identification of at-risk populations, and consequently to fallacies in the drugs’ allocation strategies and their cost-effectiveness. A specific form of ecological fallacy is pure specification bias. The present research aims to quantify its effect on the parameter estimates of various environmental covariates used as drivers for SCH infection. This is done by (i) using a spatial convolution model that removes pure specification bias, (ii) estimating group and individual-level covariate regression parameters, and (iii) quantifying the difference between the parameter estimates and the predicted disease outcomes from the convolution and ecological models. We modeled the prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum using group-level health outcome data, and city-level environmental data as a proxy for individual-level exposure. We included environmental data such as water and vegetation indexes, distance to water bodies, day and night land surface temperature, and elevation. We estimated and compared the convolution and ecological model parameter estimates using Bayesian statistics. Covariate parameter estimates from the convolution and ecological models differed between 0.03 for the nearest distance to water bodies (NDWB), and 0.28 for the normalized difference water index (NDWI). The convolution model presented lower uncertainties in most of the parameter estimates, except for NDWB. High differences in uncertainty were found in night land surface temperature (0.23) and elevation (0.13). No significant differences were found between the predicted values and their uncertainties from both models. The proposed convolution model is able to correct for a pure specification bias by presenting less uncertain parameter estimates. It shows a good predictive performance for the mean prevalence values and for a positive number of infected people. Further research is needed to better understand the spatial extent and support of analysis to reliably explore the role of environmental variables.

Spatio-temporal population genetic structure, relative to demographic and ecological characteristics, in the freshwater snail Biomphalaria pfeifferi in Man, western Côte d'Ivoire

Combining the analysis of spatial and temporal variation when investigating population structure enhances our capacity for unravelling the biotic and abiotic factors responsible for microevolutionary change. This work aimed at measuring the spatial and temporal genetic structure of populations of the freshwater snail Biomphalaria pfeifferi (the intermediate host of the trematode Schistosoma mansoni) in relation to the mating system (self-fertilization), demography, parasite prevalence and some ecological parameters. Snail populations were sampled four times in seven human-water contact sites in the Man region, western Côte d'Ivoire, and their variability was measured at five microsatellite loci. Limited genetic diversity and high selfing rates were observed in the populations studied. We failed to reveal an effect of demographic and ecological parameters on within-population diversity, perhaps as a result of a too small number of populations. A strong spatial genetic differentiation was detected among populations. The temporal differentiation within populations was high in most populations, though lower than the spatial differentiation. All estimates of effective population size were lower than seven suggesting a strong effect of genetic drift. However, the genetic drift was compensated by high gene flow. The genetic structure within and among populations reflected that observed in other selfing snail species, relying on high selfing rates, low effective population sizes, environmental stochasticity and high gene flow.

Prevalence, intensity and factors associated with soil-transmitted helminths infections among preschool-age children in Hoima district, rural western Uganda

Background

Over 80% of morbidity due to soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) occurs in low-income countries. Children under 5 account for 20–30% of the burden in endemic areas. This study assessed the prevalence, intensity and factors associated with STH infections among preschool-age children (PSAC) in Hoima district, Uganda. The PSAC are particularly vulnerable because the chronicity of this condition usually affects their physical and mental growth and development.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was carried out among 562 PSAC (1–5 years old) in 6 counties of Hoima district using Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) method. Stool samples from children were examined using the formol ether concentration technique for STH egg detection. Egg counts were represented as egg per gram (EPG). A structured questionnaire was used to collect information on factors associated with STH infection. Generalized linear models were used to analyze relationships between STH infection and associated factors.

Results

Overall STH prevalence was 26.5%. Hookworm infection was the most prevalent (18.5%), followed by A.lumbricoides (9.8%) and T.trichiura (0.5%). Prevalence of STH infection was significantly higher in children aged 5 years (Pearson chi-square test, p = 0.009) than in children aged 1 year. The general geometric mean (GM) counts for Hookworm infection was (696.1 EPG; range (530.3–913.8)) with girls having a higher GM (789.8 EPG; range (120–13,200)) than boys. Eating uncooked or unwashed vegetables (adj. Prevalence Ratio (PR) = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.3–2.7) and fruits (adj.PR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1–2.8), indiscriminate disposal of young children’s faeces (adj.PR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1–2.0); not washing hands after defecation (adj.PR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.9–3.6); and not deworming children regularly (adj.PR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1–1.8) were significantly associated with STH infection.

Conclusion

The prevalence of Soil transmitted helminths infection among preschool-age children in Hoima district significantly increased with age. Poor hygiene, inadequate sanitation and irregular deworming were associated with STH infections among PSAC in the study area. Intense health education on the importance of hygienic practices, improved sanitation and regular deworming of PSAC should be integrated into prevention and control programs.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3289-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Are schoolchildren less infected if they have good knowledge about parasitic worms? A case study from rural Côte d'Ivoire

BACKGROUND

Parasitic worms (helminths) are common infections in low- and middle-income countries. For most helminth species, school-aged children are at highest risk of infection and morbidity, such as impaired cognitive and physical development. Preventive chemotherapy is the current mainstay for helminthiases control. Sanitation improvement and hygiene-related education are important complementary strategies, which act by altering children's behaviour. However, little is known about the effect of improved knowledge on the risk of helminth infection. The aim of this study was to assess the potential influence of knowledge that children acquired at home or in school, without any specific health education intervention, on helminth infections.

METHODS

In May 2014, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in western Côte d'Ivoire. A total of 2498 children, aged 9-12 years, were subjected to three consecutive stool examinations using duplicate Kato-Katz thick smears to determine infections with soil-transmitted helminths and Schistosoma mansoni. Additionally, children were interviewed to assess their knowledge about helminth infections. Four knowledge scores were constructed by factor analysis; one, reflecting general knowledge about helminths and three manifesting helminth species-specific knowledge. The effect of general and specific knowledge on children's helminth infection status was determined using meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Children who scored high in the hookworm-specific knowledge were less likely to be infected with hookworm but no association was found for the other helminth species. Moreover, greater general knowledge was not associated with lower odds of being infected with any helminth species. Most of the children interviewed believed that the effect of preventive chemotherapy is permanent, and hence, re-treatment is not necessary.

CONCLUSIONS

Specific knowledge about different types of helminths might not suffice to induce behavioural change which in turn reduces infection and reinfection with helminths. Health education interventions should strive to strengthen the perception of risk and to clarify the true benefit of preventive chemotherapy.

Geostatistical Methods for Disease Mapping and Visualisation Using Data from Spatio-temporally Referenced Prevalence Surveys

In this paper, we set out general principles and develop geostatistical methods for the analysis of data from spatio-temporally referenced prevalence surveys. Our objective is to provide a tutorial guide that can be used in order to identify parsimonious geostatistical models for prevalence mapping. A general variogram-based Monte Carlo procedure is proposed to check the validity of the modelling assumptions. We describe and contrast likelihood-based and Bayesian methods of inference, showing how to account for parameter uncertainty under each of the two paradigms. We also describe extensions of the standard model for disease prevalence that can be used when stationarity of the spatio-temporal covariance function is not supported by the data. We discuss how to define predictive targets and argue that exceedance probabilities provide one of the most effective ways to convey uncertainty in prevalence estimates. We describe statistical software for the visualisation of spatio-temporal predictive summaries of prevalence through interactive animations. Finally, we illustrate an application to historical malaria prevalence data from 1 334 surveys conducted in Senegal between 1905 and 2014.

Systematic review and meta-analysis on Schistosoma mansoni infection prevalence, and associated risk factors in Brazil

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on the prevalence and factors associated with Schistosoma mansoni infection in Brazil. We searched the PubMed, Web of Science and Latin-American and Caribbean System on Health Sciences Information (LILACS) databases, scientific publications articles, according to The PRISMA Statement, from 2000 to 2016. A total of 27 studies were included according to the established criteria. The prevalence of S. mansoni infection varied widely, from 0·1 to 73·1%, based on Kato-Katz technique. Of the identified studies, 42·9% were performed in the state of Minas Gerais, and 33·3% were performed in the northeast region of Brazil. We identified sex, age, education level, family income, contact with water and the presence of the intermediate host snail as major risk factors associated with infection. The meta-analysis summarized a high prevalence rate pooled for Schistosoma mansoni. On the other hand, the analysis of the subgroup showed a highly significant reduction of the prevalence rate after control measures. The epidemiological factors evidenced in the studies show the influence of environmental and social conditions on the occurrence of schistosomiasis.

Mapping Soil Transmitted Helminths and Schistosomiasis under Uncertainty: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal of Evidence

BACKGROUND

Spatial modelling of STH and schistosomiasis epidemiology is now commonplace. Spatial epidemiological studies help inform decisions regarding the number of people at risk as well as the geographic areas that need to be targeted with mass drug administration; however, limited attention has been given to propagated uncertainties, their interpretation, and consequences for the mapped values. Using currently published literature on the spatial epidemiology of helminth infections we identified: (1) the main uncertainty sources, their definition and quantification and (2) how uncertainty is informative for STH programme managers and scientists working in this domain.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We performed a systematic literature search using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) protocol. We searched Web of Knowledge and PubMed using a combination of uncertainty, geographic and disease terms. A total of 73 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria for the systematic review. Only 9% of the studies did not address any element of uncertainty, while 91% of studies quantified uncertainty in the predicted morbidity indicators and 23% of studies mapped it. In addition, 57% of the studies quantified uncertainty in the regression coefficients but only 7% incorporated it in the regression response variable (morbidity indicator). Fifty percent of the studies discussed uncertainty in the covariates but did not quantify it. Uncertainty was mostly defined as precision, and quantified using credible intervals by means of Bayesian approaches.

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

None of the studies considered adequately all sources of uncertainties. We highlighted the need for uncertainty in the morbidity indicator and predictor variable to be incorporated into the modelling framework. Study design and spatial support require further attention and uncertainty associated with Earth observation data should be quantified. Finally, more attention should be given to mapping and interpreting uncertainty, since they are relevant to inform decisions regarding the number of people at risk as well as the geographic areas that need to be targeted with mass drug administration.

Bayesian spatial analysis of the surgical incidence rate of human cystic echinococcosis in north-eastern Iran

BACKGROUND

Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a zoonotic disease that presents a public health challenge and a socioeconomic burden on developing areas in the Middle East. This study used spatial methods to assess the distribution of surgically managed CE cases in an endemic region of north-eastern Iran.

METHODS

For the years 2001-2007, a case series of all 446 patients that were surgically treated for CE in a referral hospital in north-eastern Iran was evaluated. Patients seen at the referral hospital represent 35 counties in three provinces (Razavi Khorasan, North Khorasan, and South Khorasan). A Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) spatial model was used to produce smoothed standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for surgically managed cases of CE for the 35 counties represented in this study.

RESULTS

Out of 446 surgically managed patients, 54% were male. County-level crude incidence rates ranged from 0 to 3.27 cases per 100,000 population. The highest smoothed SIR (3.46) was for Sarakhs County in the province of Razavi Khorasan, while the lowest smoothed SIR (0.05) was for Birjand County, located in the province of South Khorasan.

CONCLUSION

SIRs for CE were highest for the province of Razavi Khorasan, which has large ranching and agricultural industries. Additional studies are needed to better evaluate the role of climate, land cover, and livestock rearing on local Echinococcus granulosus transmission in Iran.

Risk factors and micro-geographical heterogeneity of Schistosoma haematobium in Ndumo area, uMkhanyakude district, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Schistosomiasis is a snail-transmitted parasitic disease endemic in most rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa. However, the currently used prediction models fail to capture the focal nature of its transmission due to the macro-geographical levels considered and paucity of data at local levels. This study determined the spatial distribution of Schistosoma haematobium and related risk factors in Ndumo area, uMkhanyakude District, KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa. A sample of 435 schoolchildren between 10 to 15 years old from 10 primary schools was screened for S. haematobium using the filtration method. Getis-Ord Gi* and Bernoulli model were used to determine the hotspots of S. haematobium infection intensity based on their spatial distribution. Semiparametric-Geographically Weighted Regression (s-GWR) model was used to predict and analyse the spatial distribution of S. haematobium in relation to environmental and socio-economic factors. We confirmed that schistosomiasis transmission is focal in nature as indicated by significant S. haematobium cases and infection intensity clusters (p<0.05) in the study area. The s-GWR model performance was low (R(2)=0.45) and its residuals did not show autocorrelation (Moran's I=-0.001; z-score=0.003 and p-value=0.997) indicating that the model was correctly spelled. The s-GWR model also indicated that the coefficients for some of the socio-economic variables such as distances of households from operational piped water collection points, distance from open water sources, religion, toilet use, household head and places of bath and laundry significantly (t-values+/-1.96) varied across the landscape thereby determining the variation of S. haematobium infection intensity. This evidence may be used for control and management of the disease at micro scale. However, there is need for further research into more factors that may improve the performance of the s-GWR models in determining the local variation of S. haematobium infection intensity.

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are generally assumed to be concentrated in poor populations, but evidence on this remains scattered. We describe within-country socioeconomic inequalities in nine NTDs listed in the London Declaration for intensified control and/or elimination: lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH), trachoma, Chagas' disease, human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), leprosy, and visceral leishmaniasis (VL).

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a systematic literature review, including publications between 2004-2013 found in Embase, Medline (OvidSP), Cochrane Central, Web of Science, Popline, Lilacs, and Scielo. We included publications in international peer-reviewed journals on studies concerning the top 20 countries in terms of the burden of the NTD under study.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We identified 5,516 publications, of which 93 met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 59 papers reported substantial and statistically significant socioeconomic inequalities in NTD distribution, with higher odds of infection or disease among poor and less-educated people compared with better-off groups. The findings were mixed in 23 studies, and 11 studies showed no substantial or statistically significant inequality. Most information was available for STH, VL, schistosomiasis, and, to a lesser extent, for trachoma. For the other NTDs, evidence on their socioeconomic distribution was scarce. The magnitude of inequality varied, but often, the odds of infection or disease were twice as high among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups compared with better-off strata. Inequalities often took the form of a gradient, with higher odds of infection or disease each step down the socioeconomic hierarchy. Notwithstanding these inequalities, the prevalence of some NTDs was sometimes also high among better-off groups in some highly endemic areas.

CONCLUSIONS

While recent evidence on socioeconomic inequalities is scarce for most individual NTDs, for some, there is considerable evidence of substantially higher odds of infection or disease among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. NTD control activities as proposed in the London Declaration, when set up in a way that they reach the most in need, will benefit the poorest populations in poor countries.

Environmental factors and the risk of urinary schistosomiasis in Ile Oluji/Oke Igbo local government area of Ondo State

Geographic information systems are being increasingly used to show the distributions of disease where data for specific environmental risk factors are available. For successful transmission of schistosomiasis, suitable climatic conditions and biological events must coincide; hence its distribution and prevalence are greatly influenced by environmental factors affecting the population of snail intermediate hosts and human hosts. Prevalence and demographic data was obtained by parasitological examination of urine samples and questionnaire administration. The mean values of environmental factors corresponding to the local government area were obtained from remotely sensed images and data from climate research unit. The effects of the environmental factors were determined by using regression analysis to analyse the correlation of environmental factors to prevalence of schistosomiasis. There was a negative correlation between infection and elevation. There was a positive correlation between vegetation, rainfall, slope, temperature and prevalence of infection. There was also a weak negative correlation between proximity to water body and prevalence. The result shows the study area to be at low to high risk of infection.

Bayesian risk profiling of soil-transmitted helminth infections and estimates of preventive chemotherapy for school-aged children in Côte d'Ivoire

Background

Soil-transmitted helminthiasis affects more than a billion people in the world and accounts for a global burden of 5.1 million disability-adjusted life years. The objectives of this study were (i) to map and predict the risk of soil-transmitted helminth infections among school-aged children in Côte d’Ivoire; (ii) to estimate school-aged children population-adjusted risk; and (iii) to estimate annual needs for preventive chemotherapy.

Methods

In late 2011/early 2012, a cross-sectional survey was carried out among school-aged children in 92 localities of Côte d’Ivoire. Children provided a single stool sample that was subjected to duplicate Kato-Katz thick smears for the diagnosis of soil-transmitted helminths. A Bayesian geostatistical variable selection approach was employed to identify environmental and socioeconomic risk factors for soil-transmitted helminth infections. Bayesian kriging was used to predict soil-transmitted helminth infections on a grid of 1 × 1 km spatial resolution. The number of school-aged children infected with soil-transmitted helminths and the amount of doses needed for preventive chemotherapy according to World Health Organization guidelines were estimated.

Results

Parasitological data were available from 5246 children aged 5–16 years. Helminth infections with hookworm were predominant (17.2 %). Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura were rarely found; overall prevalences were 1.9 % and 1.2 %, respectively. Bayesian geostatistical variable selection identified rural setting for hookworm, soil acidity and soil moisture for A. lumbricoides, and rainfall coefficient of variation for T. trichiura as main predictors of infection. The estimated school-aged children population-adjusted risk of soil-transmitted helminth infection in Côte d’Ivoire is 15.5 % (95 % confidence interval: 14.2–17.0 %). We estimate that approximately 1.3 million doses of albendazole or mebendazole are required for school-based preventive chemotherapy, and we provide school-aged children-adjusted risk aggregated at health district level.

Conclusion

We provide the first soil-transmitted helminthiasis risk profile for entire Côte d’Ivoire, based on a robust Bayesian geostatistical framework. Our model-based estimates of treatment needs and risk maps on health district level may guide the national control program in spatial targeting of annual interventions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1446-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Application of GIS technology in public health: successes and challenges

The uptake and acceptance of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology has increased since the early 1990s and public health applications are rapidly expanding. In this paper, we summarize the common uses of GIS technology in the public health sector, emphasizing applications related to mapping and understanding of parasitic diseases. We also present some of the success stories, and discuss the challenges that still prevent a full scope application of GIS technology in the public health context. Geographical analysis has allowed researchers to interlink health, population and environmental data, thus enabling them to evaluate and quantify relationships between health-related variables and environmental risk factors at different geographical scales. The ability to access, share and utilize satellite and remote-sensing data has made possible even wider understanding of disease processes and of their links to the environment, an important consideration in the study of parasitic diseases. For example, disease prevention and control strategies resulting from investigations conducted in a GIS environment have been applied in many areas, particularly in Africa. However, there remain several challenges to a more widespread use of GIS technology, such as: limited access to GIS infrastructure, inadequate technical and analytical skills, and uneven data availability. Opportunities exist for international collaboration to address these limitations through knowledge sharing and governance.

Ecological Drivers of Mansonella perstans Infection in Uganda and Patterns of Co-endemicity with Lymphatic Filariasis and Malaria

BACKGROUND

Mansonella perstans is a widespread, but relatively unknown human filarial parasite transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. Although it is found in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, only few studies have been carried out to deepen the understanding of its ecology, epidemiology, and health consequences. Hence, knowledge about ecological drivers of the vector and parasite distribution, integral to develop spatially explicit models for disease prevention, control, and elimination strategies, is limited.

METHODOLOGY

We analyzed data from a comprehensive nationwide survey of M. perstans infection conducted in 76 schools across Uganda in 2000-2003, to identify environmental drivers. A suite of Bayesian geostatistical regression models was fitted, and the best fitting model based on the deviance information criterion was utilized to predict M. perstans infection risk for all of Uganda. Additionally, we investigated co-infection rates and co-distribution with Wuchereria bancrofti and Plasmodium spp. infections observed at the same survey by mapping geographically overlapping areas.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Several bioclimatic factors were significantly associated with M. perstans infection levels. A spatial Bayesian regression model showed the best fit, with diurnal temperature range, normalized difference vegetation index, and cattle densities identified as significant covariates. This model was employed to predict M. perstans infection risk at non-sampled locations. The level of co-infection with W. bancrofti was low (0.3%), due to limited geographic overlap. However, where the two infections did overlap geographically, a positive association was found.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study presents the first geostatistical risk map for M. perstans in Uganda. We confirmed a widespread distribution of M. perstans, and identified important potential drivers of risk. The results provide new insight about the ecologic preferences of this otherwise poorly known filarial parasite and its Culicoides vector species in Uganda, which might be relevant for other settings in sub-Saharan Africa.

Sustaining the Control of Schistosoma mansoni in Western Côte d'Ivoire: Baseline Findings Before the Implementation of a Randomized Trial

We report baseline findings before the implementation of a 4-year intervention trial designed to assess the impact of three different school-based treatment schedules with praziquantel to sustain the control of intestinal schistosomiasis. The baseline survey was conducted in 75 schools of western Côte d'Ivoire previously identified with moderate Schistosoma mansoni endemicity (prevalence: 10-24% in children aged 13-14 years). Three stool samples collected over consecutive days were subjected to duplicate Kato-Katz thick smears each. A questionnaire was administered to collect village-specific information that is relevant for schistosomiasis transmission. Overall, 4,953 first graders (aged 5-8 years) and 7,011 school children (aged 9-12 years) had complete parasitologic data. The overall prevalence of S. mansoni was 5.4% among first graders and 22.1% in 9- to 12-year-old children. Open defecation was practiced in all villages. The current baseline findings will be important to better understand the dynamics of S. mansoni prevalence and intensity over the course of this trial that might be governed by village characteristics and specific treatment interventions.

Validation of a Previously Developed Geospatial Model That Predicts the Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in New York State Produce Fields

Technological advancements, particularly in the field of geographic information systems (GIS), have made it possible to predict the likelihood of foodborne pathogen contamination in produce production environments using geospatial models. Yet, few studies have examined the validity and robustness of such models. This study was performed to test and refine the rules associated with a previously developed geospatial model that predicts the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in produce farms in New York State (NYS). Produce fields for each of four enrolled produce farms were categorized into areas of high or low predicted L. monocytogenes prevalence using rules based on a field's available water storage (AWS) and its proximity to water, impervious cover, and pastures. Drag swabs (n = 1,056) were collected from plots assigned to each risk category. Logistic regression, which tested the ability of each rule to accurately predict the prevalence of L. monocytogenes, validated the rules based on water and pasture. Samples collected near water (odds ratio [OR], 3.0) and pasture (OR, 2.9) showed a significantly increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation compared to that for samples collected far from water and pasture. Generalized linear mixed models identified additional land cover factors associated with an increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation, such as proximity to wetlands. These findings validated a subset of previously developed rules that predict L. monocytogenes prevalence in produce production environments. This suggests that GIS and geospatial models can be used to accurately predict L. monocytogenes prevalence on farms and can be used prospectively to minimize the risk of preharvest contamination of produce.

Modeling and Validation of Environmental Suitability for Schistosomiasis Transmission Using Remote Sensing

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis is the most widespread water-based disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and human water contact patterns. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. We investigated the potential of remote sensing to characterize habitat conditions of parasite and intermediate host snails and discuss the relevance for public health.

METHODOLOGY

We employed high-resolution remote sensing data, environmental field measurements, and ecological data to model environmental suitability for schistosomiasis-related parasite and snail species. The model was developed for Burkina Faso using a habitat suitability index (HSI). The plausibility of remote sensing habitat variables was validated using field measurements. The established model was transferred to different ecological settings in Côte d'Ivoire and validated against readily available survey data from school-aged children.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission was spatially delineated and quantified by seven habitat variables derived from remote sensing data. The strengths and weaknesses highlighted by the plausibility analysis showed that temporal dynamic water and vegetation measures were particularly useful to model parasite and snail habitat suitability, whereas the measurement of water surface temperature and topographic variables did not perform appropriately. The transferability of the model showed significant relations between the HSI and infection prevalence in study sites of Côte d'Ivoire.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

A predictive map of environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission can support measures to gain and sustain control. This is particularly relevant as emphasis is shifting from morbidity control to interrupting transmission. Further validation of our mechanistic model needs to be complemented by field data of parasite- and snail-related fitness. Our model provides a useful tool to monitor the development of new hotspots of potential schistosomiasis transmission based on regularly updated remote sensing data.

Spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and treatment needs in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and geostatistical analysis

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis affects more than 200 million individuals, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, but empirical estimates of the disease burden in this region are unavailable. We used geostatistical modelling to produce high-resolution risk estimates of infection with Schistosoma spp and of the number of doses of praziquantel treatment needed to prevent morbidity at different administrative levels in 44 countries.

METHODS

We did a systematic review to identify surveys including schistosomiasis prevalence data in sub-Saharan Africa via PubMed, ISI Web of Science, and African Journals Online, from inception to May 2, 2014, with no restriction of language, survey date, or study design. We used Bayesian geostatistical meta-analysis and rigorous variable selection to predict infection risk over a grid of 1 155 818 pixels at 5 × 5 km, on the basis of environmental and socioeconomic predictors and to calculate the number of doses of praziquantel needed for prevention of morbidity.

FINDINGS

The literature search identified Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni surveys done in, respectively, 9318 and 9140 unique locations. Infection risk decreased from 2000 onwards, yet estimates suggest that 163 million (95% Bayesian credible interval [CrI] 155 million to 172 million; 18·5%, 17·6-19·5) of the sub-Saharan African population was infected in 2012. Mozambique had the highest prevalence of schistosomiasis in school-aged children (52·8%, 95% CrI 48·7-57·8). Low-risk countries (prevalence among school-aged children lower than 10%) included Burundi, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, and Rwanda. The numbers of doses of praziquantel needed per year were estimated to be 123 million (95% CrI 121 million to 125 million) for school-aged children and 247 million (239 million to 256 million) for the entire population.

INTERPRETATION

Our results will inform policy makers about the number of treatments needed at different levels and will guide the spatial targeting of schistosomiasis control interventions.

FUNDING

European Research Council, China Scholarship Council, UBS Optimus Foundation, and Swiss National Science Foundation.

Risk profiling of schistosomiasis using remote sensing: approaches, challenges and outlook

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that affects an estimated 250 million people, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. The transmission of schistosomiasis is spatially and temporally restricted to freshwater bodies that contain schistosome cercariae released from specific snails that act as intermediate hosts. Our objective was to assess the contribution of remote sensing applications and to identify remaining challenges in its optimal application for schistosomiasis risk profiling in order to support public health authorities to better target control interventions.

METHODS

We reviewed the literature (i) to deepen our understanding of the ecology and the epidemiology of schistosomiasis, placing particular emphasis on remote sensing; and (ii) to fill an identified gap, namely interdisciplinary research that bridges different strands of scientific inquiry to enhance spatially explicit risk profiling. As a first step, we reviewed key factors that govern schistosomiasis risk. Secondly, we examined remote sensing data and variables that have been used for risk profiling of schistosomiasis. Thirdly, the linkage between the ecological consequence of environmental conditions and the respective measure of remote sensing data were synthesised.

RESULTS

We found that the potential of remote sensing data for spatial risk profiling of schistosomiasis is - in principle - far greater than explored thus far. Importantly though, the application of remote sensing data requires a tailored approach that must be optimised by selecting specific remote sensing variables, considering the appropriate scale of observation and modelling within ecozones. Interestingly, prior studies that linked prevalence of Schistosoma infection to remotely sensed data did not reflect that there is a spatial gap between the parasite and intermediate host snail habitats where disease transmission occurs, and the location (community or school) where prevalence measures are usually derived from.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings imply that the potential of remote sensing data for risk profiling of schistosomiasis and other neglected tropical diseases has yet to be fully exploited.

Bayesian risk mapping and model-based estimation of Schistosoma haematobium-Schistosoma mansoni co-distribution in Côte d'Ivoire

Background

Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni are blood flukes that cause urogenital and intestinal schistosomiasis, respectively. In Côte d′Ivoire, both species are endemic and control efforts are being scaled up. Accurate knowledge of the geographical distribution, including delineation of high-risk areas, is a central feature for spatial targeting of interventions. Thus far, model-based predictive risk mapping of schistosomiasis has relied on historical data of separate parasite species.

Methodology

We analyzed data pertaining to Schistosoma infection among school-aged children obtained from a national, cross-sectional survey conducted between November 2011 and February 2012. More than 5,000 children in 92 schools across Côte d′Ivoire participated. Bayesian geostatistical multinomial models were developed to assess infection risk, including S. haematobium–S. mansoni co-infection. The predicted risk of schistosomiasis was utilized to estimate the number of children that need preventive chemotherapy with praziquantel according to World Health Organization guidelines.

Principal Findings

We estimated that 8.9% of school-aged children in Côte d′Ivoire are affected by schistosomiasis; 5.3% with S. haematobium and 3.8% with S. mansoni. Approximately 2 million annualized praziquantel treatments would be required for preventive chemotherapy at health districts level. The distinct spatial patterns of S. haematobium and S. mansoni imply that co-infection is of little importance across the country.

Conclusions/Significance

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis risk among school-aged children in Côte d′Ivoire and a strong empirical basis for a rational targeting of control interventions.

Two types of blood-dwelling parasitic worms that cause schistosomiasis (i.e., Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni) are endemic in Côte d′Ivoire, West Africa. Reliable information on their geographical distribution is needed to plan and guide the national control program. Recently, control efforts have been intensified. There is a need to update risk maps that, historically, have been based on data specific to each type of parasite. In late 2011 and early 2012, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in 92 schools all over Côte d′Ivoire. We used Bayesian geostatistical multinomial models to estimate the risk for each infection, as well as co-infection. We estimated that slightly less than 10% of school-aged children are affected by schistosomiasis (5.3% with S. haematobium and 3.8% with S. mansoni). To control schistosomiasis with the deworming drug praziquantel, approximately 2 million treatments would be necessary each year. The distinct spatial patterns of S. haematobium and S. mansoni imply that co-infection with these two types of parasitic worms is rare across the country. Our results provide a detailed analysis of the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis risk among school-aged children in Côte d′Ivoire, which will inform the national control program for targeted interventions.

Sustaining control of schistosomiasis mansoni in moderate endemicity areas in western Côte d'Ivoire: a SCORE study protocol

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease that occurs in the tropics and subtropics. The mainstay of control is preventive chemotherapy with praziquantel. In Africa, an estimated 230 million people require preventive chemotherapy. In western Côte d'Ivoire, infections with Schistosoma mansoni are widespread. To provide an evidence-base for programme decisions about preventive chemotherapy to sustain control of schistosomiasis, a 5-year multi-country study with different treatment arms has been designed by the Schistosomiasis Consortium for Operational Research and Evaluation (SCORE) and is currently being implemented in various African settings, including Côte d'Ivoire.

METHODS/DESIGN

We report the study protocol, including ethics statement and insight from a large-scale eligibility survey carried out in four provinces in western Côte d'Ivoire. The study protocol has been approved by the ethics committees of Basel and Côte d'Ivoire. A total of 12,110 children, aged 13-14 years, from 264 villages were screened for S. mansoni using duplicate Kato-Katz thick smears from single stool samples. Among the schools with a S. mansoni prevalence of 10-24%, 75 schools were selected and randomly assigned to one of three treatment arms. In each school, three stool samples are being collected from 100 children aged 9-12 years annually and one stool sample from 100 first-year students at baseline and in the final year and subjected to duplicate Kato-Katz thick smears. Cost and coverage data for the different intervention arms, along with environmental, political and other characteristics that might impact on the infection prevalence and intensity will be recorded in each study year, using a pretested village inventory form.

DISCUSSION

The study will document changes in S. mansoni infection prevalence and intensity according to different treatment schemes. Moreover, factors that determine the effectiveness of preventive chemotherapy will be identified. These factors will help to develop reasonable measures of force of transmission that can be used to make decisions about the most cost-effective means of lowering prevalence, intensity and transmission in a given setting. The gathered information and results will inform how to effectively sustain control of schistosomiasis at a low level in different social-ecological contexts.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN99401114 (date assigned: 12 November 2014).

Risk factors and spatial distribution of Schistosoma mansoni infection among primary school children in Mbita District, Western Kenya

Background

An increasing risk of Schistosoma mansoni infection has been observed around Lake Victoria, western Kenya since the 1970s. Understanding local transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis is crucial in curtailing increased risk of infection.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We carried out a cross sectional study on a population of 310 children from eight primary schools. Overall, a total of 238 (76.8%) children were infected with S. mansoni, while seven (2.3%) had S. haematobium. The prevalence of hookworm, Trichuris trichiura and Ascaris lumbricoides were 6.1%, 5.2% and 2.3%, respectively. Plasmodium falciparum was the only malaria parasite detected (12.0%). High local population density within a 1 km radius around houses was identified as a major independent risk factor of S. mansoni infection. A spatial cluster of high infection risk was detected around the Mbita causeway following adjustment for population density and other potential risk factors.

Conclusions/Significance

Population density was shown to be a major factor fuelling schistosome infection while individual socio-economic factors appeared not to affect the infection risk. The high-risk cluster around the Mbita causeway may be explained by the construction of an artificial pathway that may cause increased numbers of S. mansoni host snails through obstruction of the waterway. This construction may have, therefore, a significant negative impact on the health of the local population, especially school-aged children who frequently come in contact with lake water.

It is estimated that more than ten percent of the world's population is at risk of schistosome transmission, with over 90% of infections occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. In Kenya, schistosomiasis remains a major public health concern particularly around Lake Victoria. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with Schistosoma mansoni infection among schoolchildren on the shores and adjacent islands of Lake Victoria in Mbita district, western Kenya. High local population density was identified as an important risk factor for S. mansoni infection. Socio-economic factors were not found to be significantly associated with infection risk. Our study suggests that environmental changes related to causeway construction and the dense human population around Mbita town may result in favourable ecological conditions for S. mansoni transmission.

Infection and co-infection with helminths and Plasmodium among school children in Côte d'Ivoire: results from a National Cross-Sectional Survey

BACKGROUND

Helminth infection and malaria remain major causes of ill-health in the tropics and subtropics. There are several shared risk factors (e.g., poverty), and hence, helminth infection and malaria overlap geographically and temporally. However, the extent and consequences of helminth-Plasmodium co-infection at different spatial scales are poorly understood.

METHODOLOGY

This study was conducted in 92 schools across Côte d'Ivoire during the dry season, from November 2011 to February 2012. School children provided blood samples for detection of Plasmodium infection, stool samples for diagnosis of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) and Schistosoma mansoni infections, and urine samples for appraisal of Schistosoma haematobium infection. A questionnaire was administered to obtain demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral data. Multinomial regression models were utilized to determine risk factors for STH-Plasmodium and Schistosoma-Plasmodium co-infection.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Complete parasitological and questionnaire data were available for 5,104 children aged 5-16 years. 26.2% of the children were infected with any helminth species, whilst the prevalence of Plasmodium infection was 63.3%. STH-Plasmodium co-infection was detected in 13.5% and Schistosoma-Plasmodium in 5.6% of the children. Multinomial regression analysis revealed that boys, children aged 10 years and above, and activities involving close contact to water were significantly and positively associated with STH-Plasmodium co-infection. Boys, wells as source of drinking water, and water contact were significantly and positively associated with Schistosoma-Plasmodium co-infection. Access to latrines, deworming, higher socioeconomic status, and living in urban settings were negatively associated with STH-Plasmodium co-infection; whilst use of deworming drugs and access to modern latrines were negatively associated with Schistosoma-Plasmodium co-infection.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

More than 60% of the school children surveyed were infected with Plasmodium across Côte d'Ivoire, and about one out of six had a helminth-Plasmodium co-infection. Our findings provide a rationale to combine control interventions that simultaneously aim at helminthiases and malaria.

Socioenvironmental threats to pastoral livelihoods: risk perceptions in the Altay and Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang, China

Subjective risk perceptions give rise to unique policy implications as they reflect both the expectation of risk exposure and the ability to mitigate or cope with the adverse impacts. Based on data collected from semistructured interviews and iterative ranking exercises with 159 households in the Altay and Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang, China, this study investigates and explains the risks with respect to a seriously understudied population and location. Using both geostatistical and econometric methods, we show that although fear of environmental crisis is prevalent among our respondents, recently implemented pastoral conservation, sedentarization, and development projects are more likely to be ranked as the top concerns among affected households. In order to reduce these concerns, future pastoral policy must be built on the livestock economy, and intervention priority should be given to the geographic areas identified as risk hot spots. In cases where pastoralists have to give up their pastures, the transition to other comparable livelihood strategies must be enabled by creating new opportunities and training pastoralists to acquire the needed skills.

Predictive risk mapping of schistosomiasis in Brazil using Bayesian geostatistical models

Schistosomiasis is one of the most common parasitic diseases in tropical and subtropical areas, including Brazil. A national control programme was initiated in Brazil in the mid-1970s and proved successful in terms of morbidity control, as the number of cases with hepato-splenic involvement was reduced significantly. To consolidate control and move towards elimination, there is a need for reliable maps on the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis, so that interventions can target communities at highest risk. The purpose of this study was to map the distribution of Schistosoma mansoni in Brazil. We utilized readily available prevalence data from the national schistosomiasis control programme for the years 2005-2009, derived remotely sensed climatic and environmental data and obtained socioeconomic data from various sources. Data were collated into a geographical information system and Bayesian geostatistical models were developed. Model-based maps identified important risk factors related to the transmission of S. mansoni and confirmed that environmental variables are closely associated with indices of poverty. Our smoothed predictive risk map, including uncertainty, highlights priority areas for intervention, namely the northern parts of North and Southeast regions and the eastern part of Northeast region. Our predictive risk map provides a useful tool for to strengthen existing surveillance-response mechanisms.

Micro-geographical heterogeneity in Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium infection and morbidity in a co-endemic community in northern Senegal

BACKGROUND

Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium are co-endemic in many areas in Africa. Yet, little is known about the micro-geographical distribution of these two infections or associated disease within such foci. Such knowledge could give important insights into the drivers of infection and disease and as such better tailor schistosomiasis control and elimination efforts.

METHODOLOGY

In a co-endemic farming community in northern Senegal (346 children (0-19 y) and 253 adults (20-85 y); n = 599 in total), we studied the spatial distribution of S. mansoni and S. haematobium single and mixed infections (by microscopy), S. mansoni-specific hepatic fibrosis, S. haematobium-specific urinary tract morbidity (by ultrasound) and water contact behavior (by questionnaire). The Kulldorff's scan statistic was used to detect spatial clusters of infection and morbidity, adjusted for the spatial distribution of gender and age.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium infection densities clustered in different sections of the community (p = 0.002 and p = 0.023, respectively), possibly related to heterogeneities in the use of different water contact sites. While the distribution of urinary tract morbidity was homogeneous, a strong geospatial cluster was found for severe hepatic fibrosis (p = 0.001). Particularly those people living adjacent to the most frequently used water contact site were more at risk for more advanced morbidity (RR = 6.3; p = 0.043).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Schistosoma infection and associated disease showed important micro-geographical heterogeneities with divergent patterns for S. mansoni and S. haematobium in this Senegalese community. Further in depth investigations are needed to confirm and explain our observations. The present study indicates that local geospatial patterns should be taken into account in both research and control of schistosomiasis. The observed extreme focality of schistosomiasis even at community level, suggests that current strategies may not suffice to move from morbidity control to elimination of schistosomiasis, and calls for less uniform measures at a finer scale.

A brief review of spatial analysis concepts and tools used for mapping, containment and risk modelling of infectious diseases and other illnesses

Fast response and decision making about containment, management, eradication and prevention of diseases, are increasingly important aspects of the work of public health officers and medical providers. Diseases and the agents causing them are spatially and temporally distributed, and effective countermeasures rely on methods that can timely locate the foci of infection, predict the distribution of illnesses and their causes, and evaluate the likelihood of epidemics. These methods require the use of large datasets from ecology, microbiology, health and environmental geography. Geodatabases integrating data from multiple sets of information are managed within the frame of geographic information systems (GIS). Many GIS software packages can be used with minimal training to query, map, analyse and interpret the data. In combination with other statistical or modelling software, predictive and spatio-temporal modelling can be carried out. This paper reviews some of the concepts and tools used in epidemiology and parasitology. The purpose of this review is to provide public health officers with the critical tools to decide about spatial analysis resources and the architecture for the prevention and surveillance systems best suited to their situations.

Genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum among school-aged children from the Man region, western Côte d'Ivoire

Background

The genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum allows the molecular discrimination of otherwise microscopically identical parasites and the identification of individual clones in multiple infections. The study reported here investigated the P. falciparum multiplicity of infection (MOI) and genetic diversity among school-aged children in the Man region, western Côte d’Ivoire.

Methods

Blood samples from 292 children aged seven to 15 years were collected in four nearby villages located at altitudes ranging from 340 to 883 m above sea level. Giemsa-stained thick and thin blood films were prepared and examined under a microscope for P. falciparum prevalence and parasitaemia. MOI and genetic diversity of the parasite populations were investigated using msp2 typing by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP).

Results

Plasmodium falciparum prevalence and parasitaemia were both found to be significantly lower in the highest altitude village. Genotyping of the isolates revealed 25 potentially new msp2 alleles. MOI varied significantly across villages but did not correlate with altitude nor children’s age, and only to a limited extent with parasitaemia. An analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicated that a small, but close to statistical significance (p = 0.07), fraction of variance occurs specifically between villages of low and high altitudes.

Conclusions

Higher altitude was associated with lower prevalence of P. falciparum but not with reduced MOI, suggesting that, in this setting, MOI is not a good proxy for transmission. The evidence for partially parted parasite populations suggests the existence of local geographical barriers that should be taken into account when deploying anti-malarial interventions.

Large-scale determinants of intestinal schistosomiasis and intermediate host snail distribution across Africa: does climate matter?

The geographical ranges of most species, including many infectious disease agents and their vectors and intermediate hosts, are assumed to be constrained by climatic tolerances, mainly temperature. It has been suggested that global warming will cause an expansion of the areas potentially suitable for infectious disease transmission. However, the transmission of infectious diseases is governed by a myriad of ecological, economic, evolutionary and social factors. Hence, a deeper understanding of the total disease system (pathogens, vectors and hosts) and its drivers is important for predicting responses to climate change. Here, we combine a growing degree day model for Schistosoma mansoni with species distribution models for the intermediate host snail (Biomphalaria spp.) to investigate large-scale environmental determinants of the distribution of the African S. mansoni-Biomphalaria system and potential impacts of climatic changes. Snail species distribution models included several combinations of climatic and habitat-related predictors; the latter divided into "natural" and "human-impacted" habitat variables to measure anthropogenic influence. The predictive performance of the combined snail-parasite model was evaluated against a comprehensive compilation of historical S. mansoni parasitological survey records, and then examined for two climate change scenarios of increasing severity for 2080. Future projections indicate that while the potential S. mansoni transmission area expands, the snail ranges are more likely to contract and/or move into cooler areas in the south and east. Importantly, we also note that even though climate per se matters, the impact of humans on habitat play a crucial role in determining the distribution of the intermediate host snails in Africa. Thus, a future contraction in the geographical range size of the intermediate host snails caused by climatic changes does not necessarily translate into a decrease or zero-sum change in human schistosomiasis prevalence.

Statistical methodological issues in mapping historical schistosomiasis survey data

For schistosomiasis and other neglected tropical diseases for which resources for control are still limited, model-based maps are needed for prioritising spatial targeting of control interventions and surveillance of control programmes. Bayesian geostatistical modelling has been widely and effectively used to generate smooth empirical risk maps. In this paper, we review important issues related to the modelling of schistosomiasis risk, including Bayesian computation of large datasets, heterogeneity of historical survey data, stationary and isotropy assumptions and novel approaches for Bayesian geostatistical variable selection. We provide an example of advanced Bayesian geostatistical variable selection based on historical prevalence data of Schistosoma mansoni in Côte d'Ivoire. We include a "parameter expanded normal mixture of inverse-gamma" prior for the regression coefficients, which in turn allows selection of blocks of covariates, particularly categorical variables. The implemented Bayesian geostatistical variable selection provided a rigorous approach for the selection of predictors within a Bayesian geostatistical framework, identified the most important predictors of S. mansoni infection risk and led to a more parsimonious model compared to traditional selection approaches that ignore the spatial structure in the data. In conclusion, statistical advances in Bayesian geostatistical modelling offer unique opportunities to account for important inherent characteristics of the Schistosoma infection, and hence Bayesian geostatistical models can guide the spatial targeting of control interventions.

Spatially explicit Schistosoma infection risk in eastern Africa using Bayesian geostatistical modelling

Schistosomiasis remains one of the most prevalent parasitic diseases in the tropics and subtropics, but current statistics are outdated due to demographic and ecological transformations and ongoing control efforts. Reliable risk estimates are important to plan and evaluate interventions in a spatially explicit and cost-effective manner. We analysed a large ensemble of georeferenced survey data derived from an open-access neglected tropical diseases database to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium for a total of 13 countries of eastern Africa. Bayesian geostatistical models based on climatic and other environmental data were used to account for potential spatial clustering in spatially structured exposures. Geostatistical variable selection was employed to reduce the set of covariates. Alignment factors were implemented to combine surveys on different age-groups and to acquire separate estimates for individuals aged ≤20 years and entire communities. Prevalence estimates were combined with population statistics to obtain country-specific numbers of Schistosoma infections. We estimate that 122 million individuals in eastern Africa are currently infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. Country-specific population-adjusted prevalence estimates range between 12.9% (Uganda) and 34.5% (Mozambique) for S. mansoni and between 11.9% (Djibouti) and 40.9% (Mozambique) for S. haematobium. Our models revealed that infection risk in Burundi, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia and Sudan might be considerably higher than previously reported, while in Mozambique and Tanzania, the risk might be lower than current estimates suggest. Our empirical, large-scale, high-resolution infection risk estimates for S. mansoni and S. haematobium in eastern Africa can guide future control interventions and provide a benchmark for subsequent monitoring and evaluation activities.

Micro-scale investigation of intestinal schistosomiasis transmission on Ngamba and Kimi islands, Lake Victoria, Uganda

A study to investigate the effect of environmental predictors on abundance of Biomphalaria, the intermediate host snails of Schistosoma mansoni, was carried out on two small islands in Lake Victoria, Uganda. Malacological surveys were performed at 40 shoreline sites on Kimi and Ngamba islands documenting occurrence of Biomphalaria; other environmental and limnological conditions were also recorded, including gastropod community diversity. Snails were examined for shedding of schistosomes and emerging cercariae were DNA 'barcoded'. For population genetics analysis of Biomphalaria, snails from four populations from each island were also sequenced. Aquatic phosphate concentrations were higher on Kimi island, confirming greater anthropogenic influence, although, snail species diversity and community assemblages were not significantly different between islands. Bayesian geostatistical models were fitted to assess the effect of environmental factors on Biomphalaria abundance and snails' risk of shedding schistosome or non-schistosome cercariae. No factors were found to be significant in the spatial model. The local population genetics of S. mansoni and Biomphalaria on each island followed similar patterns as that seen in previous studies on a lake-wide basis. These findings suggest that smaller scale studies may prove useful as proxies for regional level investigations, with reduced logistical and resource output required. However, further research should also include surveys of terminal host parasite burden, as these will affect even micro-scale dynamics of parasite-intermediate host interactions, as well as be important from a public health perspective in their own right.

Mapping, bayesian geostatistical analysis and spatial prediction of lymphatic filariasis prevalence in Africa

There is increasing interest to control or eradicate the major neglected tropical diseases. Accurate modelling of the geographic distributions of parasitic infections will be crucial to this endeavour. We used 664 community level infection prevalence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with eight environmental variables, altitude and population density, and a multivariate Bayesian generalized linear spatial model that allows explicit accounting for spatial autocorrelation and incorporation of uncertainty in input data and model parameters, to construct the first spatially-explicit map describing LF prevalence distribution in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against predictions made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA climate models for 2050 to predict the likely distributions of LF under future climate and population changes. We show that LF prevalence is strongly influenced by spatial autocorrelation between locations but is only weakly associated with environmental covariates. Infection prevalence, however, is found to be related to variations in population density. All associations with key environmental/demographic variables appear to be complex and non-linear. LF prevalence is predicted to be highly heterogenous across Africa, with high prevalences (>20%) estimated to occur primarily along coastal West and East Africa, and lowest prevalences predicted for the central part of the continent. Error maps, however, indicate a need for further surveys to overcome problems with data scarcity in the latter and other regions. Analysis of future changes in prevalence indicates that population growth rather than climate change per se will represent the dominant factor in the predicted increase/decrease and spread of LF on the continent. We indicate that these results could play an important role in aiding the development of strategies that are best able to achieve the goals of parasite elimination locally and globally in a manner that may also account for the effects of future climate change on parasitic infection.

Drug resistance in vectorborne parasites: multiple actors and scenarios for an evolutionary arms race

Drug-resistant pathogens emerge faster than new drugs come out of drug discovery pipelines. Current and future drug options should therefore be better protected, requiring a clear understanding of the factors that contribute to the natural history of drug resistance. Although many of these factors are relatively well understood for most bacteria, this proves to be more complex for vectorborne parasites. In this review, we discuss considering three key models (Plasmodium, Leishmania and Schistosoma) how drug resistance can emerge, spread and persist. We demonstrate a multiplicity of scenarios, clearly resulting from the biological diversity of the different organisms, but also from the different modes of action of the drugs used, the specific within- and between-host ecology of the parasites, and environmental factors that may have direct or indirect effects. We conclude that integrated control of drug-resistant vectorborne parasites is not dependent upon chemotherapy only, but also requires a better insight into the ecology of these parasites and how their transmission can be impaired.

Modelling the geographical distribution of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Bolivia

Background

The prevalence of infection with the three common soil-transmitted helminths (i.e. Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and hookworm) in Bolivia is among the highest in Latin America. However, the spatial distribution and burden of soil-transmitted helminthiasis are poorly documented.

Methods

We analysed historical survey data using Bayesian geostatistical models to identify determinants of the distribution of soil-transmitted helminth infections, predict the geographical distribution of infection risk, and assess treatment needs and costs in the frame of preventive chemotherapy. Rigorous geostatistical variable selection identified the most important predictors of A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura, and hookworm transmission.

Results

Results show that precipitation during the wettest quarter above 400 mm favours the distribution of A. lumbricoides. Altitude has a negative effect on T. trichiura. Hookworm is sensitive to temperature during the coldest month. We estimate that 38.0%, 19.3%, and 11.4% of the Bolivian population is infected with A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura, and hookworm, respectively. Assuming independence of the three infections, 48.4% of the population is infected with any soil-transmitted helminth. Empirical-based estimates, according to treatment recommendations by the World Health Organization, suggest a total of 2.9 million annualised treatments for the control of soil-transmitted helminthiasis in Bolivia.

Conclusions

We provide estimates of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Bolivia based on high-resolution spatial prediction and an innovative variable selection approach. However, the scarcity of the data suggests that a national survey is required for more accurate mapping that will govern spatial targeting of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control.