Importance and mitigation of the risk of spillback transmission of Mycobacterium bovis infection for eradication of bovine tuberculosis from wildlife in New Zealand

Wildlife-livestock interactions and risk areas for cross-species spread of bovine tuberculosis

The transmission of diseases between livestock and wildlife can be a hindrance to effective disease control. Maintenance hosts and contact rates should be explored to further understand the transmission dynamics at the wildlife-livestock interface. Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has been shown to have wildlife maintenance hosts and has been confirmed as present in the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Queen Elizabeth National Park (QENP) in Uganda since the 1960s. The first aim of this study was to explore the spatio-temporal spread of cattle illegally grazing within the QENP recorded by the Uganda Wildlife Authority (UWA) rangers in a wildlife crime database. Secondly, we aimed to quantify wildlife-livestock interactions and cattle movements, on the border of QENP, using a longitudinal questionnaire completed by 30 livestock owners. From this database, 426 cattle sightings were recorded within QENP in 8 years. Thirteen (3.1%) of these came within a 300 m-4 week space-time window of a buffalo herd, using the recorded GPS data. Livestock owners reported an average of 1.04 (95% CI 0.97-1.11) sightings of Uganda kob, waterbuck, buffalo or warthog per day over a 3-month period, with a rate of 0.22 (95% CI 0.20-0.25) sightings of buffalo per farmer per day. Reports placed 85.3% of the ungulate sightings and 88.0% of the buffalo sightings as further than 50 m away. Ungulate sightings were more likely to be closer to cattle at the homestead (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.6) compared with the grazing area. Each cattle herd mixed with an average of five other cattle herds at both the communal grazing and watering points on a daily basis. Although wildlife and cattle regularly shared grazing and watering areas, they seldom came into contact close enough for aerosol transmission. Between species infection transmission is therefore likely to be by indirect or non-respiratory routes, which is suspected to be an infrequent mechanism of transmission of BTB. Occasional cross-species spillover of infection is possible, and the interaction of multiple wildlife species needs further investigation. Controlling the interface between wildlife and cattle in a situation where eradication is not being considered may have little impact on BTB disease control in cattle.

Epidemiology and control of Mycobacterium bovis infection in brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula), the primary wildlife host of bovine tuberculosis in New Zealand

The introduced Australian brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) is a maintenance host for bovine tuberculosis (TB) in New Zealand and plays a central role in the TB problem in this country. The TB-possum problem emerged in the late 1960s, and intensive lethal control of possums is now used to reduce densities to low levels over 8 million ha of the country. This review summarises what is currently known about the pathogenesis and epidemiology of TB in possums, and how the disease responds to possum control. TB in possums is a highly lethal disease, with most possums likely to die within 6 months of becoming infected. The mechanisms of transmission between possums remain unclear, but appear to require some form of close contact or proximity. At large geographic scales, TB prevalence in possum populations is usually low (1-5%), but local prevalence can sometimes reach 60%. Intensive, systematic and uniform population control has been highly effective in breaking the TB cycle in possum populations, and where that control has been sustained for many years the prevalence of TB is now zero or near zero. Although some uncertainties remain, local eradication of TB from possums appears to be straightforward, given that TB managers now have the ability to reduce possum numbers to near zero levels and to maintain them at those levels for extended periods where required. We conclude that, although far from complete, the current understanding of TB-possum epidemiology, and the current management strategies and tactics, are sufficient to achieve local, regional, and even national disease eradication from possums in New Zealand.

Toward eradication: the effect of Mycobacterium bovis infection in wildlife on the evolution and future direction of bovine tuberculosis management in New Zealand

New Zealand's bovine tuberculosis (TB) control programme has greatly reduced the burden of tuberculosis on the farming industry, from 11% of mature cattle found with TB at slaughter in 1905 to <0.003% in 2012/13. New Zealand implemented TB control measures in cattle from the mid-twentieth century, and later in farmed deer. Control was based on established methods of tuberculin testing of herds, slaughter of suspect cases, and livestock movement control. Unexplained regional control failures and serious disease outbreaks were eventually linked to wildlife-vectored infection from the introduced Australian brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), which also triggered a wildlife disease complex involving a range of introduced species. This paper reviews the progressive elucidation of the epidemiology of Mycobacterium bovis in New Zealand's wildlife and farmed livestock, and the parallel development of research-led, multi-faceted TB control strategies required to protect New Zealand's livestock industries from damaging infection levels. The adoption of coordinated national pest management strategies, with increasingly ambitious objectives agreed between government and industry funders, has driven a costly but very successful management regime targeted at controlling TB in the possum maintenance host. This success has led to initiation of a strategy designed to eradicate TB from New Zealand's livestock and wildlife, which is considered a realistic long-term prospect.

Development of the New Zealand strategy for local eradication of tuberculosis from wildlife and livestock

We describe the progressive development of New Zealand's national strategy for control of tuberculosis (TB) in its agricultural sector over the last four decades. The strategy is globally unique, reflecting the need for effective and co-ordinated management of TB in a wildlife maintenance host, the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), in addition to controlling infection in cattle and farmed deer herds. Since the early 1990s, the strategy has been developed by the Animal Health Board (AHB), formed to empower the farming industry to take the leadership role in funding of TB control, policy development and administration.

The AHB became the first non-government organisation to develop and gain acceptance by the funders (farming industry and government) of a National Pest Management Strategy (NPMS) under the Biosecurity Act 1993. A key outcome of the NPMS for TB control was the development and inclusion of very challenging objectives that provided direction for management, research and possum control. This paper describes the process whereby the NPMS was revised twice, following achievement of each successive set of strategy objectives within budget. Success was based on firstly, reorganisation of the AHB and its operational systems to achieve increased efficiency; secondly, improved efficiency through contracting possum and disease control, and thirdly research delivering effective and practical applications, while also providing a scientific basis for setting directions for future control strategies. The last revision of the NPMS was implemented in 2011, and included objectives to eradicate Mycobacterium bovis-infected wildlife populations over 2.5 million hectares by 2026. This ambitious objective was adopted only after extensive forecast modelling enabled stakeholders to identify and select the most cost-effective long-term solution for the management of M. bovis-infected possum populations.

The accomplishment of New Zealand's TB control programme, in meeting successive sets of demanding NPMS objectives, has seen a 95% decrease in the number of infected cattle and deer herds since they peaked at 1,694 in 1994, and the eradication of TB from infected possum populations from 830,000 hectares. Provided the current level of funding continues, New Zealand is positioned to achieve national eradication of TB well in advance of the 40–50-year timeline forecast 3 years ago.

The role of multiple wildlife hosts in the persistence and spread of bovine tuberculosis in New Zealand

AIM

To explore how the inclusion of multi-host dynamics affects the predicted prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in possums and other host species following the current best practice for control of TB in large difficult and remote areas, to identify which host species are responsible for changes in predicted prevalence, and whether TB can persist in possum-free host communities.

METHODS

Multi-host TB models were constructed, comprising three host species with density-dependent population growth, density-dependent disease transmission and susceptible and infected classes. Models were parameterised for two case studies of current concern in New Zealand, namely chronic TB persistence in a possum-deer-pig complex in extensive forest, and in a possum-pig-ferret complex in unforested semi-arid shrub and grasslands. Persistence of TB in the face of best practice possum control was evaluated from model simulations, and the contribution of different hosts to persistence of TB was assessed by removing each host species in turn from the simulations. A sensitivity test explored how different parameter values affected modelled persistence of TB.

RESULTS

The forest multi-host model-predicted amplification of TB prevalence due to the presence of pigs. The presence of pigs and/or deer did not jeopardise the success of best practice possum control in eradicating TB from the system, as pigs and deer are effectively end-hosts for TB. Sensitivity analyses indicated these interpretations were robust to uncertainty in model parameter values. The grassland system model predicted that the multi-host species complex could potentially lead to failure of eradication of TB under possum-only control, due to TB persisting in ferret and pig populations in the absence of possum hosts through reciprocal scavenging, resulting in spillback transmission to possums once their populations had started to recover from control.

CONCLUSIONS

With respect to management of TB, for modelled forest habitats, 15 years of effective possum control was predicted to eradicate TB from the possum-deer-pig host community, indicating the current focus on possum-only control is appropriate for such areas. For grassland model systems, TB was predicted to persist in the ferret-pig host complex in the absence of possums, potentially jeopardising the effectiveness of possum-only control programmes. However this outcome depended on the occurrence and rate of pigs acquiring TB from ferrets, which is unknown. Thus some estimation of this transmission parameter is required to enable managers to assess if multi-host disease dynamics are important for their TB control programmes.

The epidemiology of Mycobacterium bovis in wild deer and feral pigs and their roles in the establishment and spread of bovine tuberculosis in New Zealand wildlife

In New Zealand, wild deer and feral pigs are assumed to be spillover hosts for Mycobacterium bovis, and so are not targeted in efforts aimed at locally eradicating bovine tuberculosis (TB) from possums (Trichosurus vulpecula), the main wildlife host. Here we review the epidemiology of TB in deer and pigs, and assess whether New Zealand's TB management programme could be undermined if these species sometimes achieve maintenance host status. In New Zealand, TB prevalences of up to 47% have been recorded in wild deer sympatric with tuberculous possums. Patterns of lesion distribution, age-specific prevalences and behavioural observations suggest that deer become infected mainly through exposure to dead or moribund possums. TB can progress rapidly in some deer (<10%), but generalised disease is uncommon in wild deer; conversely some infected animals can survive for many years. Deer-to-deer transmission of M. bovis is rare, but transmission from tuberculous deer carcasses to scavengers, including possums, is likely. That creates a small spillback risk that could persist for a decade after transmission of new infection to wild deer has been halted. Tuberculosis prevalence in New Zealand feral pigs can reach 100%. Infections in lymph nodes of the head and alimentary tract predominate, indicating that TB is mostly acquired through scavenging tuberculous carrion, particularly possums. Infection is usually well contained, and transmission between pigs is rare. Large reductions in local possum density result in gradual declines (over 10 years) in TB prevalence among sympatric wild deer, and faster declines in feral pigs. Elimination of TB from possums (and livestock) therefore results in eventual disappearance of TB from feral pigs and wild deer. However, the risk of spillback infection from deer to possums substantially extends the time needed to locally eradicate TB from all wildlife (compared to that which would be required to eradicate disease from possums alone), while dispersal or translocation of pigs (e.g. by hunters) creates a risk of long-distance spread of disease. The high rate at which pigs acquire M. bovis infection from dead possums makes them useful as sentinels for detecting TB in wildlife. It is unlikely that wild deer and feral pigs act as maintenance hosts anywhere in New Zealand, because unrestricted year-round hunting keeps densities low, with far less aggregation than on New Zealand farms. We conclude that active management of wild deer or feral pigs is not required for local TB eradication in New Zealand.

Feral ferrets (Mustela furo) as hosts and sentinels of tuberculosis in New Zealand

The control and eventual eradication of bovine tuberculosis (TB) poses major challenges in New Zealand, given the variety of wildlife species susceptible to TB, many of which are capable of onwards transmission of Mycobacterium bovis infection. Here we discuss the role of feral ferrets (Mustela furo), focussing on potential transmission or risk pathways that have implications for management of TB. Firstly inter-specific transmission to ferrets. Ferrets scavenge potentially infected wildlife, including other ferrets, thus prevalence of TB can be amplified through ferrets feeding on tuberculous carcasses, particularly brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula). Secondly intra-specific transmission between ferrets. The rate of ferret-ferret transmission depends on population density, and in some places ferret densities exceed the estimated threshold for disease persistence. TB can therefore potentially be maintained independently of other sources of infection. Thirdly transmission from ferrets to other wildlife. These include the main wildlife maintenance host, brushtail possums, that will occasionally scavenge potentially tuberculous ferret carcasses. Fourthly transmission from ferrets to livestock. This is considered to occur occasionally, but the actual rate of transmission has never been measured. Fifthly geographical spread. M. bovis-infected ferrets can travel large distances and cause new outbreaks of TB at locations previously free of TB, which may have caused an expansion of TB-endemic areas.Ferrets play a complex role in the TB cycle in New Zealand; they are capable of contracting, amplifying and transmitting M. bovis infection, sometimes resulting in ferret populations with a high prevalence of TB. However, ferret population densities are usually too low to sustain infection independently, and transmission to other wildlife or livestock appears a rarer event than with possums. Nevertheless, management of ferrets remains a key part of the National Pest Management Strategy for TB. Control is prudent where M. bovis-infected ferret populations exist in high numbers, to reduce the onward transmission risk of any self-sustained infection to livestock. When ferret numbers are well below the theoretical disease maintenance threshold, ferret control is still sometimes warranted because of the animals’ ability to acquire infection when young and, through dispersal, transport it outside TB-endemic areas. Ferrets can also be used as disease sentinels for TB, especially in areas where alternative sentinel species are rare or expensive to survey, and when sampling of possums is not cost-effective.

Assessing the Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Management in Brushtail Possums (Trichosurus vulpecula), through Indirect Surveillance of Mycobacterium bovis Infection Using Released Sentinel Pigs

In New Zealand, wild pigs acquire Mycobacterium bovis infection by scavenging tuberculous carrion, primarily carcasses of the main disease maintenance host, the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula). We investigated the utility of captive-reared, purpose-released pigs as sentinels for tuberculosis (TB) following lethal possum control and subsequent population recovery. Within 2-3 years of possum control by intensive poisoning, TB prevalence and the incidence rate of M. bovis infection in released sentinel pigs were lower than in an adjacent area where possums had not been poisoned. Unexpectedly, TB did not decline to near zero levels among pigs in the poisoned area, a fact which reflected an unanticipated rapid increase in the apparent abundance of possums. Monitoring infection levels among resident wild pigs confirmed that TB prevalence, while reduced due to possum control, persisted in the poisoned area at >20% among pigs born 2-3 years after poisoning, while remaining >60% among resident wild pigs in the nonpoisoned area. When fitted with radio-tracking devices, purpose-released pigs provided precise spatial TB surveillance information and facilitated effective killing of wild pigs when employed as “Judas” animals to help locate residents. Sentinel pigs offer value for monitoring disease trends in New Zealand, as TB levels in possums decline nationally due to large-scale possum control.

Evaluating the tuberculosis hazard posed to cattle from wildlife across Europe

Tuberculosis (TB) caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis) and other closely related members of the M. tuberculosis complex (MTC) infects many domestic and wildlife species across Europe. Transmission from wildlife species to cattle complicates the control of disease in cattle. By determining the level of TB hazard for which a given wildlife species is responsible, the potential for transmission to the cattle population can be evaluated. We undertook a quantitative review of TB hazard across Europe on a country-by-country basis for cattle and five widely-distributed wildlife species. Cattle posed the greatest current and potential TB hazard other cattle for the majority of countries in Europe. Wild boar posed the greatest hazard of all the wildlife species, indicating that wild boar have the greatest ability to transmit the disease to cattle. The most common host systems for TB hazards in Europe are the cattle-deer-wild boar ones. The cattle-roe deer-wild boar system is found in 10 countries, and the cattle-red deer-wild boar system is found in five countries. The dominance of cattle with respect to the hazards in many regions confirms that intensive surveillance of cattle for TB should play an important role in any TB control programme. The significant contribution that wildlife can make to the TB hazard to cattle is also of concern, given current population and distribution increases of some susceptible wildlife species, especially wild boar and deer, and the paucity of wildlife TB surveillance programmes.