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Smith BT, Warren CM, Anderson LN, Hammond D, Manuel DG, Li Y, Andreacchi AT, Rosella LC, Fu SH, Hobin E. The equitable impact of sugary drink taxation structures on sugary drink consumption among Canadians: a modelling study using the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition. Public Health Nutr 2024; 27:e121. [PMID: 38618932 PMCID: PMC11075107 DOI: 10.1017/s1368980024000545] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2023] [Revised: 11/09/2023] [Accepted: 02/12/2024] [Indexed: 04/16/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Estimate the impact of 20 % flat-rate and tiered sugary drink tax structures on the consumption of sugary drinks, sugar-sweetened beverages and 100 % juice by age, sex and socio-economic position. DESIGN We modelled the impact of price changes - for each tax structure - on the demand for sugary drinks by applying own- and cross-price elasticities to self-report sugary drink consumption measured using single-day 24-h dietary recalls from the cross-sectional, nationally representative 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition. For both 20 % flat-rate and tiered sugary drink tax scenarios, we used linear regression to estimate differences in mean energy intake and proportion of energy intake from sugary drinks by age, sex, education, food security and income. SETTING Canada. PARTICIPANTS 19 742 respondents aged 2 and over. RESULTS In the 20 % flat-rate scenario, we estimated mean energy intake and proportion of daily energy intake from sugary drinks on a given day would be reduced by 29 kcal/d (95 % UI: 18, 41) and 1·3 % (95 % UI: 0·8, 1·8), respectively. Similarly, in the tiered tax scenario, additional small, but meaningful reductions were estimated in mean energy intake (40 kcal/d, 95 % UI: 24, 55) and proportion of daily energy intake (1·8 %, 95 % UI: 1·1, 2·5). Both tax structures reduced, but did not eliminate, inequities in mean energy intake from sugary drinks despite larger consumption reductions in children/adolescents, males and individuals with lower education, food security and income. CONCLUSIONS Sugary drink taxation, including the additional benefit of taxing 100 % juice, could reduce overall and inequities in mean energy intake from sugary drinks in Canada.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brendan T Smith
- Public Health Ontario, 661 University Avenue, Suite 1701,
Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of
Toronto, 155 College St Room 500, Toronto, ON,
Canada
| | - Christine M Warren
- Public Health Ontario, 661 University Avenue, Suite 1701,
Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Laura N Anderson
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact,
McMaster University, Hamilton, ON,
Canada
- Child Health Evaluative Sciences, Sickkids Research
Institute, Toronto, ON,
Canada
| | - David Hammond
- School of Public Health Sciences, University of
Waterloo, Waterloo, ON,
Canada
| | - Douglas G Manuel
- Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Clinical Epidemiology, 501
Smyth Box 511, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- Department of Family Medicine, and School of Epidemiology and Public
Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa,
ON, Canada
- Bruyère Research Institute, OttawaON, Canada
| | - Ye Li
- Public Health Ontario, 661 University Avenue, Suite 1701,
Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of
Toronto, 155 College St Room 500, Toronto, ON,
Canada
| | - Alessandra T Andreacchi
- Public Health Ontario, 661 University Avenue, Suite 1701,
Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of
Toronto, 155 College St Room 500, Toronto, ON,
Canada
| | - Laura C Rosella
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of
Toronto, 155 College St Room 500, Toronto, ON,
Canada
- Institute for Better Health, Trillium Health Partners,
MississaugaON, Canada
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology, Temerty Faculty of
Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto,
ON, Canada
| | - Sze Hang Fu
- Public Health Ontario, 661 University Avenue, Suite 1701,
Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Erin Hobin
- Public Health Ontario, 661 University Avenue, Suite 1701,
Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of
Toronto, 155 College St Room 500, Toronto, ON,
Canada
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Chen J, Yang CC, Lin Y. Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Dairy Consumption Trends: An Empirical Investigation of Accounting Data in China. Foods 2024; 13:741. [PMID: 38472856 DOI: 10.3390/foods13050741] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2024] [Revised: 02/24/2024] [Accepted: 02/27/2024] [Indexed: 03/14/2024] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic may have had a negative impact on dairy consumption trends. Many dairy products are perishable and have relatively high income elasticity, causing their susceptibility to market fluctuations in general, including those specifically caused by the pandemic. However, the pandemic has also brought some other prospective possibilities. For example, during the pandemic, people paid more attention to nutrition and health issues and increased the number of meals prepared and eaten at home. In consideration of the particular circumstances during the pandemic, the Chinese government issued several policies to promote the population's dairy consumption, and the Chinese dairy cattle sector actively implemented the policy of "guarantee price, quality, and supply". These factors may have caused the Chinese population to increase their consumption of dairy products during the pandemic. Before the pandemic, the consumption of dairy products in the Chinese population showed an overall upward trend. The question addressed in this study is how has COVID-19 affected dairy consumption trends during the pandemic? This study uses accounting data from the Chinese dairy cattle sector to empirically analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dairy consumption trends through economic theories and translog revenue function. Our study found that COVID-19 increased consumers' consumption of dairy products in China, but those people experiencing poverty may still have experienced inadequate dairy intake. This study has contributed to the body of work in this area in the literature and provides response strategies for the dairy cattle sector and the authorities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianxiong Chen
- College of Economics and Management, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China
| | - Chung-Cheng Yang
- College of Management, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Douliu 64002, Taiwan
| | - Yu Lin
- College of Management, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Douliu 64002, Taiwan
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Button BLG, McEachern LW, Martin G, Gilliland JA. Intake of Fruits, Vegetables, and Sugar-Sweetened Beverages among a Sample of Children in Rural Northern Ontario, Canada. CHILDREN (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2022; 9:1028. [PMID: 35884012 PMCID: PMC9320505 DOI: 10.3390/children9071028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2022] [Revised: 07/02/2022] [Accepted: 07/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
There is evidence to suggest that dietary intake of children differs by rural/urban place of residence: rural children may have a higher intake of foods high in fat and sugar than those living in urban environments. The aim of this study was to examine the intake of fruits and vegetables (FV) and the frequency of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption, among a sample of rural children in Northern Ontario, Canada, in two different seasons. Sociodemographic factors and children's FV and SSB intake were measured using two repeated cross-sectional surveys, and seasonal information was based on the month of data collection. Logistic regressions were used to examine the odds of children eating five or more FVs, and the odds of 'frequently or always' consuming SSBs. During the fall, children reported eating five or more FV more often, when compared to winter (53.9% vs. 48.3%). In the fall, 25.8% of children reported 'frequently or always' drinking SSB, compared with 16.9% in winter. Indigenous children were less likely to eat five or more FV (OR 0.34 (95% CI 0.12-0.95)) in the fall when compared to non-Indigenous children. Findings indicate that intake of FV among rural students in this region is low, and the frequency of SSB is high, when compared with national recommendations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brenton L. G. Button
- Human Environments Analysis Laboratory, Department of Geography and Environment, Western University, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada; (L.W.M.); (G.M.); (J.A.G.)
- Faculty of Education, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, MB R3B 2E9, Canada
| | - Louise W. McEachern
- Human Environments Analysis Laboratory, Department of Geography and Environment, Western University, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada; (L.W.M.); (G.M.); (J.A.G.)
- Children’s Health Research Institute, London, ON N6C 2V5, Canada
| | - Gina Martin
- Human Environments Analysis Laboratory, Department of Geography and Environment, Western University, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada; (L.W.M.); (G.M.); (J.A.G.)
- Faculty of Health Disciplines, Athabasca University, Athabasca, AB T9S 3A3, Canada
| | - Jason A. Gilliland
- Human Environments Analysis Laboratory, Department of Geography and Environment, Western University, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada; (L.W.M.); (G.M.); (J.A.G.)
- Children’s Health Research Institute, London, ON N6C 2V5, Canada
- Lawson Health Research Institute, London, ON N6A 4V2, Canada
- School of Health Studies, Western University, London, ON N6A 3K7, Canada
- Department of Paediatrics, Western University, London, ON N6A 5C1, Canada
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Western University, London, ON N6A 5C1, Canada
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Warren C, Hobin E, Manuel DG, Anderson LN, Hammond D, Jessri M, Arcand J, L'Abbé M, Li Y, Rosella LC, Manson H, Smith BT. Socioeconomic position and consumption of sugary drinks, sugar-sweetened beverages and 100% juice among Canadians: a cross-sectional analysis of the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey–Nutrition. CANADIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 113:341-362. [PMID: 35138596 PMCID: PMC9043056 DOI: 10.17269/s41997-021-00602-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2021] [Accepted: 12/07/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Objective The aim of this study was to describe sugary drink (beverages with free sugars), sugar-sweetened beverage (beverages with added sugars, SSB) and 100% juice (beverages with natural sugars) consumption across socioeconomic position (SEP) among Canadians. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 19,742 respondents of single-day 24-h dietary recalls in the nationally representative 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey–Nutrition. Poisson regressions were used to estimate the prevalence of consuming each beverage type on a given day. Among consumers on a given day, linear regressions were used to estimate mean energy intake. Models included household education, food security and income quintiles as separate unadjusted exposures. Sex-specific models were estimated separately for children/adolescents (2–18 years) and adults (19 +). Results Among female children/adolescents, the prevalence of consuming sugary drinks and, separately, SSB ranged from 11 to 21 and 8 to 27 percentage-points higher among lower education compared to ‘Bachelor degree or above’ households. In female adults, the prevalence of consuming sugary drinks and, separately, SSB was 10 (95% CI: 1, 19) and 14 (95% CI: 2, 27) percentage-points higher in food insecure compared to secure households. In males, the prevalence of consuming 100% juice was 9 (95% CI: − 18, 0) percentage-points lower among food insecure compared to secure households. Social inequities in energy intake were observed in female adult consumers, among whom mean energy from sugary drinks was 27 kcal (95% CI: 3, 51) higher among food insecure compared to secure and 35 kcal (95% CI: 2, 67) higher from 100% juice among ‘less than high school’ education compared to ‘Bachelor degree or above’ households. Conclusion Social inequities in sugary drink consumption exist in Canada. The associations differed by SEP indicator. Equitable interventions to reduce consumption are warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christine Warren
- Public Health Ontario, 480 University Avenue, Suite 300, Toronto, ON, M5G 1V2, Canada
| | - Erin Hobin
- Public Health Ontario, 480 University Avenue, Suite 300, Toronto, ON, M5G 1V2, Canada
- Department of Nutritional Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Douglas G Manuel
- Clinical Epidemiology, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences - Central Site, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Health Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- Department of Family Medicine, and School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- Bruyère Research Institute, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Laura N Anderson
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
- Child Health Evaluative Sciences, SickKids Research Institute, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - David Hammond
- School of Public Health and Health Systems, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
| | - Mahsa Jessri
- Food, Nutrition and Health Program, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - JoAnne Arcand
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Ontario Tech University, Oshawa, ON, Canada
| | - Mary L'Abbé
- Department of Nutritional Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Ye Li
- Public Health Ontario, 480 University Avenue, Suite 300, Toronto, ON, M5G 1V2, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Laura C Rosella
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences - Central Site, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute for Better Health, Trillium Health Partners, Mississauga, ON, Canada
- Vector Institute, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Temerty Faculty of Medicine, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Heather Manson
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Brendan T Smith
- Public Health Ontario, 480 University Avenue, Suite 300, Toronto, ON, M5G 1V2, Canada.
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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Hutchinson J, Tarasuk V. The relationship between diet quality and the severity of household food insecurity in Canada. Public Health Nutr 2022; 25:1013-1026. [PMID: 34551845 PMCID: PMC9991759 DOI: 10.1017/s1368980021004031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2021] [Revised: 08/11/2021] [Accepted: 09/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To examine the relationship between the dietary quality of Canadian children and adults and household food insecurity status. DESIGN Dietary intake was assessed with one 24-h recall. Households were classified as food secure or marginally, moderately or severely food insecure based on their responses to the Household Food Security Survey Module. We applied multivariable analyses of variance to determine whether % energy from ultra-processed foods, fruit and vegetable intake, Healthy Eating Index (HEI) scores, macronutrient composition and micronutrient intakes per 1000 kcal differed by food insecurity status after accounting for income, education and region. Analyses were run separately for children 1-8 years and 9-18 years and men and women 19-64 years of age. SETTING Ten provinces in Canada. PARTICIPANTS Respondents to the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition, aged 1-64 years, with complete food insecurity data and non-zero energy intakes, N 15 909. RESULTS Among adults and children, % energy from ultra-processed foods was strongly related to severity of food insecurity, but no significant trend was observed for fruit and vegetable intake or HEI score. Carbohydrate, total sugar, fat and saturated fat intake/1000 kcal did not differ by food insecurity status, but there was a significant negative trend in protein/1000 kcal among older children, a positive trend in Na/1000 kcal among younger children and inverse associations between food insecurity severity and several micronutrients/1000 kcal among adults and older children. CONCLUSIONS With more severe household food insecurity, ultra-processed food consumption was higher, and diet quality was generally lower among both adults and children.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joy Hutchinson
- School of Public Health Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada
| | - Valerie Tarasuk
- Department of Nutritional Sciences, University of Toronto, Temerty Faculty of Medicine, 1 King’s College Circle, Toronto, ONM5S 1A8, Canada
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Yang CC, Chen YS, Chen J. The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Food Consumption Behavior: Based on the Perspective of Accounting Data of Chinese Food Enterprises and Economic Theory. Nutrients 2022; 14:1206. [PMID: 35334868 PMCID: PMC8950524 DOI: 10.3390/nu14061206] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2022] [Revised: 02/24/2022] [Accepted: 03/09/2022] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rapid spread of COVID-19 around the world has become one of the main focuses of concern in almost every country, and governments have taken numerous measures to prevent/mitigate the spread of the disease. As an essential social determinant, COVID-19 has significantly impacted consumers' food consumption behavior and healthy eating habits/behaviors. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on food consumption behavior, and the main goal was to assess the possible problems (such as food waste and weight gain) caused by changes in food consumption behavior during the pandemic. Based on the accounting data of Chinese enterprises found in the China Stock Market and Accounting Research (CSMAR) database, this study uses economic theory and the translog function to conduct an average partial effect (APE) analysis of the pandemic, and finds that the COVID-19 pandemic has increased Chinese people's overall food consumption, and the consumption of food from large food enterprises has increased even more (APE = 0.11 vs. APE = 0.31). This study suggests that food waste and weight gain in the Chinese population may be more severe during the pandemic, and it is necessary to enhance food management and weight management through multiple pathways.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Jianxiong Chen
- Department of Accounting, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Yunlin 64002, Taiwan; (C.-C.Y.); (Y.-S.C.)
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Consumption of Milk and alternatives decreased among Canadians from 2004 to 2015: evidence from the Canadian community health surveys. BMC Nutr 2021; 7:63. [PMID: 34719398 PMCID: PMC8559356 DOI: 10.1186/s40795-021-00465-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2020] [Accepted: 08/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Milk and milk products make important contributions to the diet of Canadians. The aim of this study was to examine trends in Milk & Alternatives consumption among Canadians (≥2 years) from 2004 to 2015. Methods We used nutrition data from 2 nationally representative cross-sectional surveys conducted in 2004 and 2015 [Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) 2004 Cycle 2.2 and CCHS-Nutrition 2015] to compare Milk & Alternatives consumption between 2004 and 2015. Data from 24-h dietary recalls were collected using the Automated Multiple-Pass Method (AMPM). Result From 2004 to 2015, the proportion of Canadians consuming Milk & Alternatives food group significantly decreased from 89.5 to 87.7% and the number of servings consumed per day dropped from 1.9 to 1.7. Despite their low energy contribution (12.3% of energy), Milk & Alternatives contributed 45.8% of calcium, 39.9% of vitamin D, and 36.0% of vitamin B12 to the diet of the Canadian population in 2015. Milk & Alternatives were among the top sources of vitamin A, phosphorus and riboflavin. Milk & Alternatives food group was a major contributor to saturated fat intake in both 2004 (31.2%) and 2015 (28.6%). In 2015, dietary intakes of calcium and vitamin D among Milk & Alternatives consumers were 137.8, and 59.4% higher, respectively, than those of non-consumers. Conclusion Daily intake of Milk & Alternatives has decreased in the Canadian population over time, which may adversely affect the nutritional profile of the diet.
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Tarasuk V, Brassard D. The effect of consuming voluntarily fortified food and beverages on usual nutrient intakes in the Canadian population. Food Nutr Res 2021; 65:5256. [PMID: 34650396 PMCID: PMC8494267 DOI: 10.29219/fnr.v65.5256] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2020] [Revised: 03/31/2021] [Accepted: 08/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In Canada, regulatory changes have expanded marketing opportunities for voluntarily fortified products (VFPs), with micronutrient additions permitted at levels well in excess of human requirements. OBJECTIVE To examine how the consumption of VFPs relates to usual nutrient intakes in the Canadian population. DESIGN The 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey comprises single 24-h dietary intake recalls on a population-representative sample of 20,487 individuals aged 1 year and older, with second recalls on a subset of 7,608. The intake data included 15 food codes denoting VFP (e.g. energy drinks, fortified beverages, cereals, and bars). We assessed VFP consumption and estimated usual intake distributions for riboflavin, niacin, zinc, and vitamins A, B6, B12, and C for VFP consumers and non-consumers 14-50 years old (n = 8,442) using the National Cancer Institute method. We applied the 'shrink and add' method to estimate usual intakes among supplement users and assessed apparent benefits and risks by comparing usual intake distributions to EARs and ULs. RESULTS Only 2.4% of the population reported any consumption of VFP on the first 24-h recall. VFP consumers were overrepresented in the upper quartile of population intake distributions for niacin, riboflavin, vitamin B6, vitamin B12, and zinc. The median usual intakes of VFP consumers were 24-111% higher than the median usual intakes of non-consumers, and VFP consumers had significantly lower prevalence of inadequacy for riboflavin and vitamins A, B6, B12, and C. Irrespective of VFP consumption, usual intake distributions reached the ULs for vitamin A and zinc with the addition of supplement intakes. DISCUSSION Given the limited differentiation of VFP in this survey, we have likely underestimated nutrient exposure levels. CONCLUSIONS VFP consumption was associated with elevated usual nutrient intakes, but we found limited evidence that it protected consumers from nutrient inadequacies or propelled intakes above tolerable upper levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Valerie Tarasuk
- Department of Nutritional Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Didier Brassard
- Centre Nutrition, santé et société (NUTRISS), Institut sur la nutrition et les aliments fonctionnels (INAF), Université Laval, Québec, Canada
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Norris JM, Johnson RK, Stene LC. Type 1 diabetes-early life origins and changing epidemiology. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2020; 8:226-238. [PMID: 31999944 PMCID: PMC7332108 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-8587(19)30412-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 168] [Impact Index Per Article: 42.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2019] [Revised: 11/25/2019] [Accepted: 11/25/2019] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
Type 1 diabetes is a chronic, immune-mediated disease characterised by the destruction of insulin-producing cells. Standardised registry data show that type 1 diabetes incidence has increased 3-4% over the past three decades, supporting the role of environmental factors. Although several factors have been associated with type 1 diabetes, none of the associations are of a magnitude that could explain the rapid increase in incidence alone. Moreover, evidence of changing prevalence of these exposures over time is insufficient. Multiple factors could simultaneously explain the changing type 1 diabetes incidence, or the magnitude of observed associations could have been underestimated because of exposure measurement error, or the mismodelling of complex exposure-time-response relationships. The identification of environmental factors influencing the risk of type 1 diabetes and increased understanding of the cause at the individual level, regardless of the ability to explain the changing incidence at the population level, is important because of the implications for prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jill M Norris
- Department of Epidemiology, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO, USA.
| | - Randi K Johnson
- Division of Biomedical Informatics and Personalized Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA
| | - Lars C Stene
- Department of Chronic Diseases and Ageing, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
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