1
|
Mo H, Wang S. Assessing the spatiotemporal evolution and socioeconomic determinants of PM 2.5-related premature deaths in China from 2000 to 2021. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 946:174323. [PMID: 38955281 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174323] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2024] [Revised: 06/12/2024] [Accepted: 06/25/2024] [Indexed: 07/04/2024]
Abstract
China's swift socioeconomic development has led to extremely severe ambient PM2.5 levels, the associated negative health outcomes of which include premature death. However, a comprehensive explanation of the socioeconomic mechanism contributing to PM2.5-related premature deaths has not yet to be fully elucidated through long-term spatial panel data. Here, we employed a global exposure mortality model (GEMM) and the system generalized method of moments (Sys-GMM) to examine the primary determinants contributing to premature deaths in Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2021. We found that in the research period, premature deaths in China increased by 46 %, reaching 1.87 million, a figure that decreased somewhat after the COVID-19 outbreak. 62 thousand premature deaths were avoided in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2019, primarily due to the decline in PM2.5 concentrations. Premature deaths have increased across all provinces, particularly in North China, and a discernible spatial agglomeration effect was observed, highlighting effects on nearby provinces. The findings also underscored the significance of determinants such as urbanization, import and export trade, and energy consumption in exacerbating premature deaths, while energy intensity exerted a mitigating influence. Importantly, a U-shaped relationship between premature deaths and economic development was unveiled for the first time, implying the need for vigilance regarding potential health impact deterioration and the implementation of countermeasures as the per capita GDP increases in China. Our findings deserve attention from policymakers as they shed fresh insights into atmospheric control and Health China action.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Huibin Mo
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China
| | - Shaojian Wang
- School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Ma Y, Nobile F, Marb A, Dubrow R, Kinney PL, Peters A, Stafoggia M, Breitner S, Chen K. Air pollution changes due to COVID-19 lockdowns and attributable mortality changes in four countries. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 187:108668. [PMID: 38640613 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108668] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2023] [Revised: 03/20/2024] [Accepted: 04/15/2024] [Indexed: 04/21/2024]
Abstract
COVID-19 lockdowns reduced nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions in many countries. We aim to quantify the changes in these pollutants and to assess the attributable changes in mortality in Jiangsu, China; California, U.S.; Central-southern Italy; and Germany during COVID-19 lockdowns in early 2020. Accounting for meteorological impacts and air pollution time trends, we use a machine learning-based meteorological normalization technique and the difference-in-differences approach to quantify the changes in NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations due to lockdowns. Using region-specific estimates of the association between air pollution and mortality derived from a causal modeling approach using data from 2015 to 2019, we assess the changes in mortality attributable to the air pollution changes caused by the lockdowns in early 2020. During the lockdowns, NO2 reductions avoided 1.41 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 0.94, 1.88), 0.44 (95% eCI: 0.17, 0.71), and 4.66 (95% eCI: 2.03, 7.44) deaths per 100,000 people in Jiangsu, China; California, U.S.; and Central-southern Italy, respectively. Mortality benefits attributable to PM2.5 reductions were also significant, albeit of a smaller magnitude. For Germany, the mortality benefits attributable to NO2 changes were not significant (0.11; 95% eCI: -0.03, 0.25), and an increase in PM2.5 concentrations was associated with an increase in mortality of 0.35 (95% eCI: 0.22, 0.48) deaths per 100,000 people during the lockdown. COVID-19 lockdowns overall improved air quality and brought attributable health benefits, especially associated with NO2 improvements, with notable heterogeneity across regions. This study underscores the importance of accounting for local characteristics when policymakers adapt successful emission control strategies from other regions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yiqun Ma
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Federica Nobile
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Region Health Service / ASL Roma 1, Rome, Italy
| | - Anne Marb
- Chair of Epidemiology, IBE, Faculty of Medicine, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Robert Dubrow
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Patrick L Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Annette Peters
- Chair of Epidemiology, IBE, Faculty of Medicine, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Massimo Stafoggia
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Region Health Service / ASL Roma 1, Rome, Italy
| | - Susanne Breitner
- Chair of Epidemiology, IBE, Faculty of Medicine, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Kai Chen
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Ma L, Graham DJ, Stettler MEJ. Using Explainable Machine Learning to Interpret the Effects of Policies on Air Pollution: COVID-19 Lockdown in London. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2023; 57:18271-18281. [PMID: 37566731 PMCID: PMC10666281 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.2c09596] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2022] [Revised: 07/31/2023] [Accepted: 08/01/2023] [Indexed: 08/13/2023]
Abstract
Activity changes during the COVID-19 lockdown present an opportunity to understand the effects that prospective emission control and air quality management policies might have on reducing air pollution. Using a regression discontinuity design for causal analysis, we show that the first UK national lockdown led to unprecedented decreases in road traffic, by up to 65%, yet incommensurate and heterogeneous responses in air pollution in London. At different locations, changes in air pollution attributable to the lockdown ranged from -50% to 0% for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), 0% to +4% for ozone (O3), and -5% to +0% for particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM10), and there was no response for PM2.5. Using explainable machine learning to interpret the outputs of a predictive model, we show that the degree to which NO2 pollution was reduced in an area was correlated with spatial features (including road freight traffic and proximity to a major airport and the city center), and that existing inequalities in air pollution exposure were exacerbated: pollution reductions were greater in places with more affluent residents and better access to public transport services.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Liang Ma
- Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel J. Graham
- Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
| | - Marc E. J. Stettler
- Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Zhang C, Hu Q, Su W, Xing C, Liu C. Satellite spectroscopy reveals the atmospheric consequences of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 869:161759. [PMID: 36702288 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161759] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2022] [Revised: 01/14/2023] [Accepted: 01/17/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
With increasing geopolitical conflicts and climate change, the effects of war on the atmosphere remain unclear, especially the recent large-scale war between Russia and Ukraine. Here, we assess how war affects human emission activities by observing atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) using high-resolution satellite spectroscopy. Spatial and temporal responses of atmospheric composition to armed conflict are characterized. Significant decreases in NO2 concentrations of 10.7-27.3 % occurred in most Ukrainian cities at the beginning of the war, in contrast to dramatic increases in NO2 concentrations in Russian cities outside the northern border. Anomalous changes in NO2 were also found in transportation hubs. By excluding the effect of meteorology, the machine learning model indicates that war-induced changes in anthropogenic emissions may account for ∼40 % of the reduction in NO2 pollution for major cities such as Kyiv. Our study demonstrates that satellites can provide a unique perspective on the atmospheric consequences of humanitarian disasters.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Chengxin Zhang
- Department of Precision Machinery and Precision Instrumentation, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
| | - Qihou Hu
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Optics and Technology, Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China
| | - Wenjing Su
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
| | - Chengzhi Xing
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Optics and Technology, Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China
| | - Cheng Liu
- Department of Precision Machinery and Precision Instrumentation, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Optics and Technology, Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China; Key Laboratory of Precision Scientific Instrumentation of Anhui Higher Education Institutes, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China.
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Kutlar Joss M, Probst-Hensch N. Bedeutung der Gesetzgebung zur Luftreinhaltung in der Prävention umweltbedingter Erkrankungen. ZEITSCHRIFT FÜR PNEUMOLOGIE 2023. [PMCID: PMC9976680 DOI: 10.1007/s10405-023-00499-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/05/2023]
Abstract
Die Luftverschmutzung beispielsweise durch Feinstaub (PM, particulate matter), Stickoxide oder Ozon ist schädlich für die Gesundheit. Bestehende Lungenkrankheiten können sich durch kurzfristig erhöhte Luftbelastung verschlimmern. Langfristige Luftbelastung trägt insbesondere zur Entstehung von kardiorespiratorischen Erkrankungen bei. In Deutschland starben im Jahr 2019 53.000 Menschen vorzeitig aufgrund der Feinstaubbelastung. Die Luftreinhaltung ist eine politische Aufgabe mit großem gesundheitlichem Potenzial. Sie hat in den letzten Jahren wesentlich zur Verbesserung der Luftqualität und damit der Gesundheit beigetragen. In Anbetracht der neuen stringenteren Luftqualitätsleitlinien der Weltgesundheitsorganisation (WHO) sind die Behörden und Politiker nun weltweit mit der Frage der Anpassung der Luftreinhalteziele konfrontiert. In Europa prägt die EU-Direktive die Luftreinhalteziele der Mitgliedstaaten. Die Festlegung der Richtwerte obliegt dem EU-Parlament und dem Rat der EU. Das Nichterreichen der gesetzten Ziele ist mit Strafen verbunden. Deshalb besteht die Gefahr, dass erreichbare und weniger ambitionierte Ziele gesetzt werden. Bereits heute liegen die EU-Richtwerte wesentlich höher als jene in den USA oder der Schweiz. Während „nur“ 11 % der Bevölkerung in der EU einer Belastung über dem EU-Grenzwert für Feinstaub PM10 im Jahr 2020 ausgesetzt waren, sind bei Anwendungen der neuen WHO-Leitlinie 71 % der Bevölkerung übermäßigen und gesundheitsgefährdenden Feinstaubwerten ausgesetzt. Zur wichtigsten und erfolgreichsten Maßnahme der Luftreinhaltung zählt die Reduktion der Luftschadstoffe an der Quelle: die Emissionsbegrenzung. Trotz der Energiekrise dürfen Ziele bezüglich Luftreinhaltung und Klimaschutz nicht aus den Augen verloren werden. Wichtig ist, dass der Gesundheitsschutz nicht dem Einzelnen überlassen werden kann. Gesundheitsfachleute haben in der Beratung empfindlicher Patienten im Umgang mit kurzfristig erhöhter Luftschadstoffbelastung eine wichtige klinische Funktion, aber darüber hinaus ist ihre beratende Rolle in der Politik sehr bedeutsam.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Meltem Kutlar Joss
- Dokumentationsstelle Luftverschmutzung und Gesundheit (LUDOK), Departement Epidemiologie und Public Health, Schweizerisches Tropen- und Public Health-Institut, Assoziiertes Institut der Universität Basel, Kreuzstr. 2, 4123 Allschwil, Schweiz
| | - Nicole Probst-Hensch
- Departement Epidemiologie und Public Health, SAPALDIA Kohorte und Biobank, Schweizerisches Tropen- und Public Health-Institut, Assoziiertes Institut der Universität Basel, Basel, Schweiz
| |
Collapse
|