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Ampah JD, Jin C, Liu H, Afrane S, Adun H, Morrow D, Ho DT. Prioritizing Non-Carbon Dioxide Removal Mitigation Strategies Could Reduce the Negative Impacts Associated with Large-Scale Reliance on Negative Emissions. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2024; 58:3755-3765. [PMID: 38285506 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.3c06866] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/31/2024]
Abstract
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary for reaching net zero emissions, with studies showing potential deployment at multi-GtCO2 scale by 2050. However, excessive reliance on future CDR entails serious risks, including delayed emissions cuts, lock-in of fossil infrastructure, and threats to sustainability from increased resource competition. This study highlights an alternative pathway─prioritizing near-term non-CDR mitigation and minimizing CDR dependence. We impose a 1 GtCO2 limit on global novel CDR deployment by 2050, forcing aggressive early emissions reductions compared to 8-22 GtCO2 in higher CDR scenarios. Our results reveal that this low CDR pathway significantly decreases fossil fuel use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and air pollutants compared to higher CDR pathways. Driving rapid energy transitions eases pressures on land (including food cropland), water, and fertilizer resources required for energy and negative emissions. However, these sustainability gains come with higher mitigation costs from greater near-term low/zero-carbon technology deployment for decarbonization. Overall, this work provides strong evidence for maximizing non-CDR strategies such as renewables, electrification, carbon neutral/negative fuels, and efficiency now rather than betting on uncertain future CDR scaling. Ambitious near-term mitigation in this decade is essential to prevent lock-in and offer the best chance of successful deep decarbonization. Our constrained CDR scenario offers a robust pathway to achieving net zero emissions with limited sustainability impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
- State Key Laboratory of Engines, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
| | - Chao Jin
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
| | - Haifeng Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Engines, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
| | - Sandylove Afrane
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
| | - Humphrey Adun
- Energy Systems Engineering Department, Cyprus International University, Mersin 10, Haspolat-Lefkosa, Nicosia 99258, Turkey
| | - David Morrow
- Institute for Carbon Removal Law and Policy, American University, Washington, NW DC 20016, United States
| | - David T Ho
- Department of Oceanography, University of Hawaii at Ma̅noa, 1000 Pope Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, United States
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Li Z, Ciais P, Wright JS, Wang Y, Liu S, Wang J, Li LZX, Lu H, Huang X, Zhu L, Goll DS, Li W. Increased precipitation over land due to climate feedback of large-scale bioenergy cultivation. Nat Commun 2023; 14:4096. [PMID: 37433799 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39803-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2023] [Indexed: 07/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered to be a key technology for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, large-scale bioenergy crop cultivation results in land cover changes and activates biophysical effects on climate, with earth's water recycling altered and energy budget re-adjusted. Here, we use a coupled atmosphere-land model with explicit representations of high-transpiration woody (i.e., eucalypt) and low-transpiration herbaceous (i.e., switchgrass) bioenergy crops to investigate the range of impact of large-scale rainfed bioenergy crop cultivation on the global water cycle and atmospheric water recycling. We find that global land precipitation increases under BECCS scenarios, due to enhanced evapotranspiration and inland moisture advection. Despite enhanced evapotranspiration, soil moisture decreases only slightly, due to increased precipitation and reduced runoff. Our results indicate that, at the global scale, the water consumption by bioenergy crop growth would be partially compensated by atmospheric feedbacks. Thus, to support more effective climate mitigation policies, a more comprehensive assessment, including the biophysical effects of bioenergy cultivation, is highly recommended.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhao Li
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Jonathon S Wright
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China
| | - Yong Wang
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China
| | - Shu Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China
| | - Jingmeng Wang
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China
| | - Laurent Z X Li
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Ecole Polytechnique, 75252, Paris, France
| | - Hui Lu
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaomeng Huang
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China
| | - Lei Zhu
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China
| | - Daniel S Goll
- Université Paris Saclay, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, LSCE/IPSL, Gif sur Yvette, France
| | - Wei Li
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China.
- Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, 100084, Beijing, China.
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